I am really confused lately, am I the only one who does not see the recovery on the horizon? My gut feel has been that there is a lot of PR going on for a recovery but nothing underlying that fact. Should I check myself in for psychiatric help?
If you note the the comments in the blue boxes from the 1Q2009, over the first quarter total UST marketable debt increased by 8.1% QoQ, the amount of debt to roll in the first two quarters increased by 10.3%, and the debt in the front quarter roll increased by 12.8%...so as the debt builds, the short term roll continues to build disproportionately.
Which works well until it doesn't viz Byz reference to ABCP, or the ARS market shutdown, or...
My thoughts exactly. I keep on waiting for the other shoe to drop and this BEAR rally to end. Otherwise my ultra conservatisim is costing me way to much money in the form of failed to trade proftis.
It looks like we're approaching the change from descent on the vertical part of the "L" curve to cruising on the horizontal part of the "L". If so, how much time will be passed on the ________________________ phase of the graph. Or is this just a resting place before the next leg down on the "E" formation?
I have a couple more deals !!!!! They are both fha.
I will see the true bottom when I get a conventional mortgage transaction. Not
one minute before. Meaning conventional lenders are finally starting to lend, 'cause
they really see a bottom. Having seen the light and turned all conservative 'n' all.
And again I ask:
Whoooooooo will finance the REOs.
When that financing becomes available, then we will see a bottom.
I am really confused lately, am I the only one who does not see the recovery on the horizon? My gut feel has been that there is a lot of PR going on for a recovery but nothing underlying that fact. Should I check myself in for psychiatric help?
-MOT
I'm confused too. The fundamentals just aren't there. PCE looks better because of stimulus and tax cuts, etc. which might actually stop GDP from shrinking, but employment is going to worsen. I bet a lot of manufacturers who are working people reduced hours and days are watching and waiting for a turn around. When it becomes obvious that things aren't springing back, they will go ahead with another wave of layoffs. Also, the rippling of unemployment from the automakers will add to that. Then the real darkness will set in by summer.
If you open the report, you will find the list of securities with amount and maturity - I just aggregate the maturity for each type by quarter (Bills, Notes, Bonds, TIPS - though really just intrested in the front end of the curve rather than the entire debt/term structure).
Or:
Bills due from April 1 to June 30 are in first quarter roll
Notes due from April 1 to June 30 are in first quarter roll
etc.
Some of the very short term paper will indeed need to be rolled multiple times in the quarter, this approach provides a snapshot in time for comparison across quarters - that is why I am only updating that plot at the end of each calendar quarter.
ISM is a very rough measure - I'd say its error bars are +/- 5... so a reading of 40 is basically equivalent to a reading of 35-45. No science behind that just my experience of seeing these things come out and saying BS.
If you recall Seb used to mention this when ISM was just under 50 (47ish or so) saying it really didn't indicate much of a contraction... that you had to get down to or below 40 to be certain we were in a nasty contraction. I agreed with him - then we went well below 40 to confirm we really WERE in contraction (and believe me it FELT like it from the ground - at least in mfg).
We are still solidly in contraction. The 'green shoots' comments in the report about 'inventory' is a bit premature IMO... I've talked to a number of OEMs watching inventory closely both in-house and at the big boxes. They tell me not to expect a bump in orders anytime soon UNTIL the product starts moving off the shelves. There will be some replenishment now that the excessive inventory has at least partially been worked off [some I've talked to recently would even debate that] but there won't be a lot of replenishment until the turn over improves [inventory/sales with sales being the 'driver'].
lets not forget wall street and washington live in a reality different from ours... we are just a figment of there imagination. up or down, the market jjust is for them.
The mall parking lot across from my ofc is noticeably emptier.
Also a client bought a warehouse in a thriving warehouse district. Well, it used to be thriving. Now more than half the warehouses across the street are vacant, and about a fourth on his side.
Be assured that a whole lot of under the table untaxed transactions were handled in those warehouses--this being Miami/Hialeah 'n' all. So I think that the uncounted economy which does cause economic activity in the taxed economy is even worse that the taxed economy.
I will see the true bottom when I get a conventional mortgage transaction.
From the bank's risk standpoint, FHA and GSE are pretty much the same, correct? Then, i'm assuming that the lack of conventional GSE is going to be the buyer's credit worthiness, since FHA has almost no standards.
"I am really confused lately, am I the only one who does not see the recovery on the horizon? My gut feel has been that there is a lot of PR going on for a recovery but nothing underlying that fact. Should I check myself in for psychiatric help?"
From my standpoint, the market looks like a high-stakes poker game in a burning building. There's still money to be made before heading for the exit. So they finish a hand and the smoke's not too thick yet. So they start another. But eventually the end will come, and only the swiftest will escape the flashover.
Nope, not holding my breath. I'm just saying that if the banks would sell the REOs for
a low enough price so that people who like renting will buy and there is some financing
for people who have some money to put down, then you will go a long way to finding a bottom.
I don't know are Fannie and Freddie buying anything?
Maybe all of Florida has been blacklisted?
Is anybody buying any mtg backed securities, except the gov't?
FHA does have standards in the appraisal area. The house has to be in reasonably good shape and appraise out at today's values.
Also, at least half of the fhas I've done have had down payments much bigger than 3%.
i would expect a lot of econ data to start moderating the decline but not necessarily starting a robust, fundamental driven rebound. some of the moderation is due to govt intervention and the fact that declines are bound by zero. so we have that going for us. at some point we will stop declining and find a balance. but that is as useful as saying the market can go up or down. the balance may be 6 months away or 2, 3, or 5 yrs away. it may balance close to this level, or it may balance much lower. who the heck knows. the market is pricing many stocks like the balance is right around the corner, close to this level, and will see robust growth shortly thereafter. methinks that is less likely.
ok this explains the FHA/GSE thingie. qualified borrowers still the issue.
• FHA loans typically require lower down payments than those purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the GSEs). Generally the maximum loan to value (LTV) ratio for FHA loans is 97 percent and 95 percent for the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs).
• Conventional GSE loans require Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) for loans with a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio in excess of 80 percent, while FHA has an upfront mortgage insurance premium. Some borrowers may prefer the upfront insurance premium and monthly insurance payments as it may prove more cost effective for their financial situation.
• Conventional GSE loans typically have higher credit score requirements than FHA loans, therefore borrowers who may not qualify under the GSE requirements may be applying for an FHA insured loan as an alternative.
There are two recoveries. One is in the real economy. It will probably come first. The other is in the financial part of the economy. It will come later. In fact, it will come much later to the bubble areas. You know those diagrams that show which states are in recession/recovery? The ones with the largest housing bubbles, largest job losses, and with population decline will recover the latest. TX will recover earlier than CA. NC will recover faster than FL. NV and AZ I'm not so sure. Depends on whether their growth continues.
"Some of the very short term paper will indeed need to be rolled multiple times in the quarter, this approach provides a snapshot in time for comparison across quarters - that is why I am only updating that plot at the end of each calendar quarter."
Seems like the treasury has decided to go with an ARM on our debt, rather than a long-term fixed rate.
"10y bond 3.17% 0.00 (0.00%)"
Ooof. Nice gap. So, I guess it is unlikely to hear from Jas today?
When people ask me about a housing recovery I say 5-10 years out.
They no longer roll eyes.
Recovery to me means going up, not going sideways. At this point sideways would be
good. We got worse more slowly according to Case Shiller. Down 1% over the month instead of 2%. yippee.
But it lends some hope that the max down from peak will be 50% instead of 55% which is my worst case scenario. There really is action in the 150k to 250k area. Also some condos and wrecked houses going in the 50k range. My vulture is a licensed contractor, so doesn't mind wrecks.
Another 10% means those latest buyers will lose between 15-25k. This is survivable. The typical person who comes to me is 100-150k underwater. Basically hopeless. For them they would prolly have to pay for the next 15 or 20 years before a snout lifted above the water. My house lost 10k after I bought my house in 81, and it revived.
These underwater types often spent 25k fixing up the kitchen or whatever, and they say, but
I'll lose that money. I just look at them.
Flu update. I am in the Fort Worth Texas area and the entire Fort Worth ISD shut down yesterday. Fort Worth May Fest (huge outdoor event bringing in people from all over and tons of tax receipts) canceled. Cinco De Mayo events canceled. Various local city services including an immunization clinic shut down. And city sport leagues canceled. City officials are blaming Tarrant County officials for the closure. Tarrant County says they are just following CDC recommendations. All of this based on one official case of swine flu in one school. Local parents and businesses are in uproar. Either this is sheer dumb panic and over-reaction from local government or we are not being told the whole story about what is going on. Either way the public is demanding answers now, and the silence coming from both city and county officials is amazing. The hotels are filled with people from all over the country who came down for May Fest, this is crazy.
Either this is sheer dumb panic and over-reaction from local government or we are not being told the whole story about what is going on.
A society that defines "enough" as "too much" is being confronted with a real threat.
Retrospectively, nothing has been as destructive to this nation as the idea that the FAA total shutdown of air traffic for a week after 9/11 was a good and wise action and a paradigm for future crisis management.
If somebody wants to see the effects of the economy and a captive audience enterprise, compare major league baseball attendance this season to previous seaons.
Kind of hard to measure over reacting with a health problem with pandemic potential. Only after it has passed or festered into a disaster can one decide. Which is more important money or your life?
lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/1/2009 - 11:06 am reply
Is there a biological reason for it to mutate to be more severe rather than milder?
The blind watchmaker doesn't care. Viruses are not complicated or stable organisms, they spam many variants and hope some catch.
Ones that are less virulent work better over long time periods. Over short periods, you're just confronted with a bewildering variety. Over selection-length time, mild ones will prevail. Like the difference between short and long term economically.
Timeframe and trial and error...the influenza virus has a couple mechanisms for changes - they are random - so the selection process is roll the dice and what works proceeds...
"But it lends some hope that the max down from peak will be 50% instead of 55% which is my worst case scenario. There really is action in the 150k to 250k area. Also some condos and wrecked houses going in the 50k range. My vulture is a licensed contractor, so doesn't mind wrecks."
My worst case would be 2.0X average income in an over correction, expecting a 2.5 nationally. But rising unemployment makes those moving targets. So I guess for Florida that would be $92,284 - 115,355. Since FL is at 150,000 now. I'd say there is plenty more downside. The sooner you get there the sooner you get to recover. Foreclosure moratoriums would not seem to help that. Also, it should probably be largely based on monthly payment as well, and if bonds blow up, that will not help.
Liz,Parts of the SF Bay Area can give Florida a run for its money.DQ News shows the median in Oakland down 65% YoY.I would like to see a breakdown by Zip Code because their are dramatic differences between neighborhoods to say the least.
Lobbyist Ben Dover (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/1/2009 - 11:09 am
Kind of hard to measure over reacting with a health problem with pandemic potential.
Pandemic certitude.
Only after it has passed or festered into a disaster can one decide. Which is more important money or your life?
Depends on the circumstances. With a virulent outbreak that's very far along, the most economical thing to do is prepare to handle the casualties.
They're not going to stamp it out. They are trying to firebreak the spread so they can get a vaccine for all the bankers, police and other important people. If there's some extra left, you might get some yourself, eventually, if you're still alive. Policy is once again serving the elite and the capo class. Letting it take its course would impose the costs evenly. They are going to cause disproportionate damages to the overall community to slow the spread so the kleptocrats can secure supplies of anodynes.
Letting it take its course would impose the costs evenly.
Hopefully you won't have a chance to reflect on your position as you're laying in a hospital hallway somewhere, wondering when a doc is going to have time to come by and check on you.
Hopefully you won't have a chance to reflect on your position as you're laying in a hospital hallway somewhere, wondering when a doc is going to have time to come by and check on you.
So your argument is based on natural human cowardice in the face of epidemic illness?I'm gonna get it or not and die or not. What's the difference? Your argument is the same one that let the Bushites enslave your country in the name of a disproportionate reponse, or let Hank Paulson loot the national Treasury under threat of nonspecific financial doom.
No Byz, my argument is based on the maximum case throughput at hospitals. Slow down the progression of the flu, and the caseload stays under max.
You may or may not get it, somewhat dependent on your own behavior. If you get it, the quality of care you receive will be dependent on how many other people are sharing the limited resources of the hospital with you.
Life is good. It's worth some balanced level of effort to preserve yours, and your fellow citizens'. All ideological horseshit to the contrary.
MLM (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/1/2009 - 12:03 pm reply Ignore user
No Byz, my argument is based on the maximum case throughput at hospitals. Slow down the progression of the flu, and the caseload stays under max.
You do realize you are at the doorstep of an age when epidemics fly fast and thick as the global economic context decays, and these troops and resources have to last you the whole war, not the first meeting engagement, right?
You need to establish a response pattern based on ruling a prostrate nation undertaking austerity measures in an age of disease and social turmoil. It's like the loss of control of the budget during the TARP, you'll never make a sane response again because everyone can point at this as the new baseline in minimal acceptable response.
Edit: As for life, it is good, but living it well is better than being its slave. A coward dies a thousand deaths, a hero dies but one. You are but dust in the wind, if you do not make yourself a hero, you will never be anything.
You do realize you are at the doorstep of an age when epidemics fly fast and thick as the global economic context decays, and these troops and resources have to last you the whole war, not the first meeting engagement, right?
Completely. And not overwhelming the hospitals in the first engagement strikes me as a reasonable response.
As far as being a hero goes, I'm angling to be a prudent one.
I have been saying since 1990 that the market would rally when Souter announced his retirement.
I am really confused lately, am I the only one who does not see the recovery on the horizon? My gut feel has been that there is a lot of PR going on for a recovery but nothing underlying that fact. Should I check myself in for psychiatric help?
DIG ELMO DIG..... there's gotta be a pony somewhere at the bottom of the shitpile!
Byz,
(from last thread)
Actually, posting the older graph from EOY 2008 is serendipitous - contrast that to the newer graph for the end of 1Q2009 - both graph links in post referenced below:
Comment by energyecon from thread 'NMHC: Apartment Market Conditions Continue to Worsen'
If you note the the comments in the blue boxes from the 1Q2009, over the first quarter total UST marketable debt increased by 8.1% QoQ, the amount of debt to roll in the first two quarters increased by 10.3%, and the debt in the front quarter roll increased by 12.8%...so as the debt builds, the short term roll continues to build disproportionately.
Which works well until it doesn't viz Byz reference to ABCP, or the ARS market shutdown, or...
ruht roh, this ain't the right ISM reaction.
stopped out
Fun flu factoid:
Hong Kong's leader said Friday the territory has a confirmed case of swine flu, Asia's first.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Brown shoots.
Ministry of Truth --
Don't you see those second derivatives? Integrate, baby. Integrate. Employment is only contracting by like 600,000 jobs per month now.
Abby Joseph Cohen says S&P 1050 by next year. Has she ever been wrong?
It looks like Kermit hopped over to the ten year yield and is having a go. Can I get a 3.2% ?
My thoughts exactly. I keep on waiting for the other shoe to drop and this BEAR rally to end. Otherwise my ultra conservatisim is costing me way to much money in the form of failed to trade proftis.
I had some questions EEcon:
Could you give us pointers to your sources / methodology for this?
Also, what's your methodology for counting rolls? Do you sum up the 7 day debt by counting it 12 times?
It would be very hard to distinguish between somebody playing blackjack in Vegas, and somebody shorting stocks on Wall*Street.
In both situations, players are basing their wagers on only 1/2 the information available.
It looks like we're approaching the change from descent on the vertical part of the "L" curve to cruising on the horizontal part of the "L". If so, how much time will be passed on the ________________________ phase of the graph. Or is this just a resting place before the next leg down on the "E" formation?
i think the general populace has better odds at Hurrah's
See my homeless comment next thread down.
I have a couple more deals !!!!! They are both fha.
I will see the true bottom when I get a conventional mortgage transaction. Not
one minute before. Meaning conventional lenders are finally starting to lend, 'cause
they really see a bottom. Having seen the light and turned all conservative 'n' all.
And again I ask:
Whoooooooo will finance the REOs.
When that financing becomes available, then we will see a bottom.
I am really confused lately, am I the only one who does not see the recovery on the horizon? My gut feel has been that there is a lot of PR going on for a recovery but nothing underlying that fact. Should I check myself in for psychiatric help?
-MOT
I'm confused too. The fundamentals just aren't there. PCE looks better because of stimulus and tax cuts, etc. which might actually stop GDP from shrinking, but employment is going to worsen. I bet a lot of manufacturers who are working people reduced hours and days are watching and waiting for a turn around. When it becomes obvious that things aren't springing back, they will go ahead with another wave of layoffs. Also, the rippling of unemployment from the automakers will add to that. Then the real darkness will set in by summer.
methodology is pretty simple - take the US Treasury Monthly Statement of the Public Debt - download the selection for Entire MSPD in the appropriate month (in Excel format, though I work it in OpenOffice at home being cheap)
Government - Monthly Statement of the Public Debt (MSPD) and Downloadable Files
If you open the report, you will find the list of securities with amount and maturity - I just aggregate the maturity for each type by quarter (Bills, Notes, Bonds, TIPS - though really just intrested in the front end of the curve rather than the entire debt/term structure).
Or:
Bills due from April 1 to June 30 are in first quarter roll
Notes due from April 1 to June 30 are in first quarter roll
etc.
Some of the very short term paper will indeed need to be rolled multiple times in the quarter, this approach provides a snapshot in time for comparison across quarters - that is why I am only updating that plot at the end of each calendar quarter.
.....liz, for gawd sakes don't hold your breath.....
ISM is a very rough measure - I'd say its error bars are +/- 5... so a reading of 40 is basically equivalent to a reading of 35-45. No science behind that just my experience of seeing these things come out and saying BS.
If you recall Seb used to mention this when ISM was just under 50 (47ish or so) saying it really didn't indicate much of a contraction... that you had to get down to or below 40 to be certain we were in a nasty contraction. I agreed with him - then we went well below 40 to confirm we really WERE in contraction (and believe me it FELT like it from the ground - at least in mfg).
We are still solidly in contraction. The 'green shoots' comments in the report about 'inventory' is a bit premature IMO... I've talked to a number of OEMs watching inventory closely both in-house and at the big boxes. They tell me not to expect a bump in orders anytime soon UNTIL the product starts moving off the shelves. There will be some replenishment now that the excessive inventory has at least partially been worked off [some I've talked to recently would even debate that] but there won't be a lot of replenishment until the turn over improves [inventory/sales with sales being the 'driver'].
In effect no real change...
Go long yields, go long yields, go!
Epic QE fail.
lets not forget wall street and washington live in a reality different from ours... we are just a figment of there imagination. up or down, the market jjust is for them.
one addendum - I have started doing an analysis of total debt average term - but it is a heinous grind and RL presents higher priorities...
.......when they cancel all the Pacific Coast League (Triple-A) schedule you KNOW things are bad.......
The mall parking lot across from my ofc is noticeably emptier.
Also a client bought a warehouse in a thriving warehouse district. Well, it used to be thriving. Now more than half the warehouses across the street are vacant, and about a fourth on his side.
Be assured that a whole lot of under the table untaxed transactions were handled in those warehouses--this being Miami/Hialeah 'n' all. So I think that the uncounted economy which does cause economic activity in the taxed economy is even worse that the taxed economy.
I will see the true bottom when I get a conventional mortgage transaction.
From the bank's risk standpoint, FHA and GSE are pretty much the same, correct? Then, i'm assuming that the lack of conventional GSE is going to be the buyer's credit worthiness, since FHA has almost no standards.
Or is something else in play?
If your business model relied upon people gathering in confined spaces...
We are gathered here today~
"I am really confused lately, am I the only one who does not see the recovery on the horizon? My gut feel has been that there is a lot of PR going on for a recovery but nothing underlying that fact. Should I check myself in for psychiatric help?"
From my standpoint, the market looks like a high-stakes poker game in a burning building. There's still money to be made before heading for the exit. So they finish a hand and the smoke's not too thick yet. So they start another. But eventually the end will come, and only the swiftest will escape the flashover.
Now that Chrysler plants and soon GM along with suppliers shut down, will this number show the impact of BK of the auto industry?
I see no green shoots, just excessive Obamanomics bull shit fertilizer covering up reality.
Nope, not holding my breath. I'm just saying that if the banks would sell the REOs for
a low enough price so that people who like renting will buy and there is some financing
for people who have some money to put down, then you will go a long way to finding a bottom.
I don't know are Fannie and Freddie buying anything?
Maybe all of Florida has been blacklisted?
Is anybody buying any mtg backed securities, except the gov't?
FHA does have standards in the appraisal area. The house has to be in reasonably good shape and appraise out at today's values.
Also, at least half of the fhas I've done have had down payments much bigger than 3%.
i would expect a lot of econ data to start moderating the decline but not necessarily starting a robust, fundamental driven rebound. some of the moderation is due to govt intervention and the fact that declines are bound by zero. so we have that going for us. at some point we will stop declining and find a balance. but that is as useful as saying the market can go up or down. the balance may be 6 months away or 2, 3, or 5 yrs away. it may balance close to this level, or it may balance much lower. who the heck knows. the market is pricing many stocks like the balance is right around the corner, close to this level, and will see robust growth shortly thereafter. methinks that is less likely.
I see no green shoots, just excessive Obamanomics bull shit fertilizer covering up reality.
I gotta admit, I was betting on the "more fertillizer" theory this AM.
I'll be posting some Los Angeles retail updates next week. If there's anywhere the consumer is most confident, it's LA.
Green Shoots = 1,000 Points of Blight
i would expect a lot of econ data to start moderating the decline but not necessarily starting a robust, fundamental driven rebound.
Yup.
ok this explains the FHA/GSE thingie. qualified borrowers still the issue.
• FHA loans typically require lower down payments than those purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the GSEs). Generally the maximum loan to value (LTV) ratio for FHA loans is 97 percent and 95 percent for the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs).
• Conventional GSE loans require Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) for loans with a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio in excess of 80 percent, while FHA has an upfront mortgage insurance premium. Some borrowers may prefer the upfront insurance premium and monthly insurance payments as it may prove more cost effective for their financial situation.
• Conventional GSE loans typically have higher credit score requirements than FHA loans, therefore borrowers who may not qualify under the GSE requirements may be applying for an FHA insured loan as an alternative.
those green shoots--there's a guy about to spray herbicide on them
Green shoots, $tick save-and a beauty.
Green shoots, $tick save-and a beauty.
Trottier scores on the rebound!
There are two recoveries. One is in the real economy. It will probably come first. The other is in the financial part of the economy. It will come later. In fact, it will come much later to the bubble areas. You know those diagrams that show which states are in recession/recovery? The ones with the largest housing bubbles, largest job losses, and with population decline will recover the latest. TX will recover earlier than CA. NC will recover faster than FL. NV and AZ I'm not so sure. Depends on whether their growth continues.
"Some of the very short term paper will indeed need to be rolled multiple times in the quarter, this approach provides a snapshot in time for comparison across quarters - that is why I am only updating that plot at the end of each calendar quarter."
Seems like the treasury has decided to go with an ARM on our debt, rather than a long-term fixed rate.
"10y bond 3.17% 0.00 (0.00%)"
Ooof. Nice gap. So, I guess it is unlikely to hear from Jas today?
When people ask me about a housing recovery I say 5-10 years out.
They no longer roll eyes.
Recovery to me means going up, not going sideways. At this point sideways would be
good. We got worse more slowly according to Case Shiller. Down 1% over the month instead of 2%. yippee.
But it lends some hope that the max down from peak will be 50% instead of 55% which is my worst case scenario. There really is action in the 150k to 250k area. Also some condos and wrecked houses going in the 50k range. My vulture is a licensed contractor, so doesn't mind wrecks.
Another 10% means those latest buyers will lose between 15-25k. This is survivable. The typical person who comes to me is 100-150k underwater. Basically hopeless. For them they would prolly have to pay for the next 15 or 20 years before a snout lifted above the water. My house lost 10k after I bought my house in 81, and it revived.
These underwater types often spent 25k fixing up the kitchen or whatever, and they say, but
I'll lose that money. I just look at them.
Jas is like a housewife with diarrhea of the mouth when he's up, and nowhere to be seen when he's getting creamed.
Flu update. I am in the Fort Worth Texas area and the entire Fort Worth ISD shut down yesterday. Fort Worth May Fest (huge outdoor event bringing in people from all over and tons of tax receipts) canceled. Cinco De Mayo events canceled. Various local city services including an immunization clinic shut down. And city sport leagues canceled. City officials are blaming Tarrant County officials for the closure. Tarrant County says they are just following CDC recommendations. All of this based on one official case of swine flu in one school. Local parents and businesses are in uproar. Either this is sheer dumb panic and over-reaction from local government or we are not being told the whole story about what is going on. Either way the public is demanding answers now, and the silence coming from both city and county officials is amazing. The hotels are filled with people from all over the country who came down for May Fest, this is crazy.
No housewife slander
But the 1000 points of Blight comment was great, Arbit.
Seems like the treasury has decided to go with an ARM on our debt, rather than a long-term fixed rate.
Not just an ARM, a callable ARM with continuous rate adjustment.
we may be born and bred dopes, but the criminal fraudster financiers are our criminal fraudster financiers
Either this is sheer dumb panic and over-reaction from local government or we are not being told the whole story about what is going on.
A society that defines "enough" as "too much" is being confronted with a real threat.
Retrospectively, nothing has been as destructive to this nation as the idea that the FAA total shutdown of air traffic for a week after 9/11 was a good and wise action and a paradigm for future crisis management.
Is there a biological reason for it to mutate to be more severe rather than milder?
Dawkins sez, smart parasites mutate to be more beneficial and milder so they don't kill the host and thus survive better.
I think we've been convinced that we are gonna live forever, all evidence to the contrary to be ignored.
Therefore, no risk is acceptable at all.
No new risk that is.
The "invisible" risk, which we ignore, in driving a car, doesn't count in our subconscious.
If somebody wants to see the effects of the economy and a captive audience enterprise, compare major league baseball attendance this season to previous seaons.
It should tell all...
Kind of hard to measure over reacting with a health problem with pandemic potential. Only after it has passed or festered into a disaster can one decide. Which is more important money or your life?
lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/1/2009 - 11:06 am reply
Is there a biological reason for it to mutate to be more severe rather than milder?
The blind watchmaker doesn't care. Viruses are not complicated or stable organisms, they spam many variants and hope some catch.
Ones that are less virulent work better over long time periods. Over short periods, you're just confronted with a bewildering variety. Over selection-length time, mild ones will prevail. Like the difference between short and long term economically.
lawyerliz,
Timeframe and trial and error...the influenza virus has a couple mechanisms for changes - they are random - so the selection process is roll the dice and what works proceeds...
I'm thinking this flu would sound better if we named it after all the components, kinda like a "Turducken" (turkey, duck & chicken)
"But it lends some hope that the max down from peak will be 50% instead of 55% which is my worst case scenario. There really is action in the 150k to 250k area. Also some condos and wrecked houses going in the 50k range. My vulture is a licensed contractor, so doesn't mind wrecks."
My worst case would be 2.0X average income in an over correction, expecting a 2.5 nationally. But rising unemployment makes those moving targets. So I guess for Florida that would be $92,284 - 115,355. Since FL is at 150,000 now. I'd say there is plenty more downside. The sooner you get there the sooner you get to recover. Foreclosure moratoriums would not seem to help that. Also, it should probably be largely based on monthly payment as well, and if bonds blow up, that will not help.
Liz,Parts of the SF Bay Area can give Florida a run for its money.DQ News shows the median in Oakland down 65% YoY.I would like to see a breakdown by Zip Code because their are dramatic differences between neighborhoods to say the least.
Lobbyist Ben Dover (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/1/2009 - 11:09 am
Kind of hard to measure over reacting with a health problem with pandemic potential.
Pandemic certitude.
Only after it has passed or festered into a disaster can one decide. Which is more important money or your life?
Depends on the circumstances. With a virulent outbreak that's very far along, the most economical thing to do is prepare to handle the casualties.
They're not going to stamp it out. They are trying to firebreak the spread so they can get a vaccine for all the bankers, police and other important people. If there's some extra left, you might get some yourself, eventually, if you're still alive. Policy is once again serving the elite and the capo class. Letting it take its course would impose the costs evenly. They are going to cause disproportionate damages to the overall community to slow the spread so the kleptocrats can secure supplies of anodynes.
" dum luk (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/1/2009 - 10:47 am
I see no green shoots, just excessive Obamanomics bull shit fertilizer covering up reality.
I gotta admit, I was betting on the "more fertillizer" theory this AM."
Too much fertilizer will burn your crops; FYI-
Letting it take its course would impose the costs evenly.
Hopefully you won't have a chance to reflect on your position as you're laying in a hospital hallway somewhere, wondering when a doc is going to have time to come by and check on you.
Well, if you've had the mild version already, you're safe, right?
Nobody got the Black Plague twice (most 'cause they were dead).
I have no problem with docs and nurses and police getting the medicine first.
None for rich people or banksters, unless it's a lottery.
My client with the expensive house short sale is down over 700k, which is about 45% off, so right on the Case Shiller thing.
MLM (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/1/2009
Hopefully you won't have a chance to reflect on your position as you're laying in a hospital hallway somewhere, wondering when a doc is going to have time to come by and check on you.
So your argument is based on natural human cowardice in the face of epidemic illness?I'm gonna get it or not and die or not. What's the difference? Your argument is the same one that let the Bushites enslave your country in the name of a disproportionate reponse, or let Hank Paulson loot the national Treasury under threat of nonspecific financial doom.
Life is pain, get over it.
As Worf would say, Today is a good day to die.
lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/1/2009 - 11:48 am
I have no problem with docs and nurses and police getting the medicine first.
None for rich people or banksters, unless it's a lottery.
Too bad it won't happen that way. The determinant will be guanxi / juice, not a lottery.
lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/1/2009 - 11:54 am
As Worf would say, Today is a good day to die.
Also called, "skin like iron".
No Byz, my argument is based on the maximum case throughput at hospitals. Slow down the progression of the flu, and the caseload stays under max.
You may or may not get it, somewhat dependent on your own behavior. If you get it, the quality of care you receive will be dependent on how many other people are sharing the limited resources of the hospital with you.
Life is good. It's worth some balanced level of effort to preserve yours, and your fellow citizens'. All ideological horseshit to the contrary.
MLM (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/1/2009 - 12:03 pm reply Ignore user
No Byz, my argument is based on the maximum case throughput at hospitals. Slow down the progression of the flu, and the caseload stays under max.
You do realize you are at the doorstep of an age when epidemics fly fast and thick as the global economic context decays, and these troops and resources have to last you the whole war, not the first meeting engagement, right?
You need to establish a response pattern based on ruling a prostrate nation undertaking austerity measures in an age of disease and social turmoil. It's like the loss of control of the budget during the TARP, you'll never make a sane response again because everyone can point at this as the new baseline in minimal acceptable response.
Edit: As for life, it is good, but living it well is better than being its slave. A coward dies a thousand deaths, a hero dies but one. You are but dust in the wind, if you do not make yourself a hero, you will never be anything.
You do realize you are at the doorstep of an age when epidemics fly fast and thick as the global economic context decays, and these troops and resources have to last you the whole war, not the first meeting engagement, right?
Completely. And not overwhelming the hospitals in the first engagement strikes me as a reasonable response.
As far as being a hero goes, I'm angling to be a prudent one.