WWND

"with the office vacancy rate rising sharply, office investment will probably decline at least through 2010."

Is there a chart of the vacancy rate? One would think that when that peaks, it would be a good time to look in to small business as start-up costs should be bottoming.

offices and malls.....where non-operating/core 'work' and 'spend' occurs.

welcome back to the essentials economy.

close to where i work, we have FIVE holiday inn type lodgings within one block radius... they are never busy these days... i wonder how they stay in business. amazing!

Blackhalo
While your point is valid to my knowledge prices fall so long as vacancy is above a certain %, so even after it peaks there will be more months of price declines. Also there should be a shift away from retail/services towards manufacturing, and whether or not the USD is attractive for export might be a better leading indicator as it seems likely a high vacancy rate will persist in many markets for some time. We're clearing inventory from about 3 real estate booms at once, and there is a global recession ongoing after all.

When serving cooked books, is a red wine or a white lie appropriate for the occasion?

"While your point is valid to my knowledge prices fall so long as vacancy is above a certain %, so even after it peaks there will be more months of price declines."

As someone looking to do a small software start-up. I would take a bottom in the vacancy rate as a pretty positive "go" signal. Also, if a chart of this nature had enough historical context, it would be informative to know it's leading or lagging indicator status.

--
We are far from the bottom, right CR?

In the while, when all the pipeline projects are completed, and most will, CRE would have far bigger glut, % wise, than RRE. A Rogue Economist's Handbook suggested, in late 2007 and early 2008, to tell the public that CRE was fine and wasn't going to be as bad as RRE. This was very commonly said on CNBC to justify why the economy would be fine.

There is a reason why economists are worst at the turning points on the downside. They cannot visuallize how bad thingsalready are before the negative news shows up in the data. Incompetence is not only tolerated in this profession but admired.

Jas

Does anyone know what the 'shadow' GDP number is?
tia

what aporkalyspe? the markets are green shooting again!

QQQQ is above its 200 dma.

Arbitrage_Macht_Frei - too funny!!

International air freight traffic fell 21.4 percent in March, a slight improvement from previous months but still the fourth month in a row the industry has fallen back by more than 20 percent.

Collectively, the top 20 ocean carriers may be facing total losses that could exceed $4 billion for the first quarter alone -- the largest ever quarterly loss in the industry's history.
The idled fleet rose to 506 ships of 1.34 million TEUs on April 27 from 486 vessels of 1.31 million TEUs two weeks ago, according to AXS-Alphaliner.
The idled vessels represent 10.6 percent of the world fleet against 10.4 percent on April 13.

The Port of Seattle led the drop, with a 22.2 percent slide in loaded international container volume in March 2009 from a year earlier.
The decline was a big improvement over the 44.9 percent drop in loaded international container volum;e the port saw in February, and the 74,650 loaded international TEUs handled in March was 26 percent better than the port reported the month before. (Hyundai not long ago invested huge amounts in Port of Seattle)

Idle Capacity Creates Port Price War Bad news
Idle Capacity Allows Chance to Re-evaluate Supply Chain Good News

--
Arbitrage_Macht_Frei,

You are a fine example of a dope, aren't you? Keep it up. We need dopes to express themselves.

Jas

Arbitrage_Macht_Frei (profile) wrote on Thu, 4/30/2009 - 7:16 am reply Ignore user
When UST's tank, i'm throwing an all-expense paid party @ the quickie-mart in Tehachipi.

Maybe Jas can get you the employee discount.

"Just because good times are back on Wall Street"

I am still convinced that we have at least one more new low to go, and the bigger the rally the lower the low. I will continue to take profits from my long positions and accumulate my shorts, until proven otherwise.

This Admin has been spending insane capital to engineer this thing, and eventually are going to get clubbed in the head with some fundamentals. I think they will be hard pressed to go back to congress to ask for more money for the banks, while J6P continues to be unemployed.

Some day this rally is going to end.

Air travel and freight will take another dramatic leg down due to H1N1 related concerns as the article infers...

I think we have a lack of optimism on this board and more broadly in the nation. Wall Street is optimistic, and look how well they are doing!!

"A stumbling block to the pessimist is a stepping-stone to the optimist."— Eleanor Roosevelt

La-de-dah sings a happy tune

I think everyone is confusing seasonality in economic activity for "slowness of decline"

This is just as bad as comparing month-to-month....

How deep is De Nile ?

Yep very true, I'm still working but for how much longer who knows. I know people in the trades in Calif. that are finishing the last job with nothing in the future or haven't worked 6 months and the is no future.

GM and Chrysler shall prevail regardless! Captains of Industry!

The maimstream media delivers debt deliriums daily.

"Ben Bernanke on Lower than Expected GDP"

I can't help but imagne Ben standing there naked under scrutiny. Not that I want to. Not that there is anything wrong with that...

Thanks for the laugh EHP.

Oilshertz...todays ticker supports your theory...but today no one cares..green shoots are vogue...

10:41 a.m.
CORRECT: Regis Corp quarterly net income falls
10:40 a.m.
Dow: inventory destocking was an overcorrection
10:40 a.m.
Dow CEO sees positive growth late this year
10:40 a.m.
Dow CEO: 'pace of economic decline has moderated'
10:37 a.m.
U.S natural gas inventories rise 82 bcf last week
10:34 a.m.
CORRECT: Newell Rubbermaid profit drops
10:34 a.m.
Biotech Stocks: Drug stocks mixed, Sequenom tanks on test delay
10:31 a.m.
Dow sees $25B for all its divesture opportunities
10:31 a.m.
Earnings Watch: Updates, advisories and surprises
10:30 a.m.
U.S. natural gas inventories rise 82 bcf last week
10:27 a.m.
Dow Chemical shares jump on surprise profit
10:26 a.m.
NYSE Euronext profit drops 55% as costs trimmed
10:24 a.m.
Bondholders propose to swap debt for GM control
10:23 a.m.
Cummins posts 96% profit drop
10:22 a.m.
[DOW] Dow sees $25B for all its divesture opportunities
10:22 a.m.
Marathon Oil profit down 60% as demand falls

"i am having a hard time finding a site that keeps a running total or a graph on S&P 500 earnings."

"Figuring S&P's daily P-E ratio is easy, if you know where to go" - USA Today

Figuring S&P's daily P-E ratio is easy, if you know where to go - USATODAY.com 

Interesting Times,

And the strain of the forced reinflation is continuing to tear at the fabric...

I'm making some good money going long in this market. Right now, it appears that Uncle Sam is going to be able to blow another bubble... might as well not fight it.

What happened to the depression? LOL!!!!!!!
...
I have been saying for a few months that the cliff diving of economic numbers was nearing its end and there would be no depression.

It's a bit odd that these comments are attached to a post whose highlights include:

"Lodging investment peaked at 0.33% of GDP in Q3 2008 and is now declining sharply (0.28% in Q1 2009)."

"Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in Q4 2007 and is continuing to decline. As projects are completed, mall investment should fall much further."

"The new development business is dead for a decade."

"...with the office vacancy rate rising sharply..."

and all illustrated with cliff-diving charts galore.

CR's offered many a semi-optimistic post lately; this particular post was a strange site for a LOL arrogant bottom call.

RockyR - I'm hedged this way 80% cash, 15% oil-related, 5% short financials with puts.

The puts are down 50%... but in a collapse they could easily make for the loses.

looking on S&P for the current earnings leads to a spreadsheet on PE ratios that ends on 6-30-08.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_500/2,3,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,1,5,0,0,0,0,0.html

85% cash
10% short specific retail
05% short s7p

.....Chicago PMI increased from 31 to 40......

So business is still contracting sharply, but not as badly as last month's worst reading in 29 years.

I love optimism...it's soooooo pro-American....

The Yalt Clark Street index posts a 50 for April. No newly boarded-up buildings in the 'hood this month, but no sign whatsoever of any potential activity in the vacant stock. And the condo re-development down the street still has their "Condo Blow Out Sale--Last Few Units Still Available" sign up for the 18th consecutive month.

⫸BIS: banks' [foreign] claims shrank by 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2008 ($1.8 trillion at constant exchange rates), to $ 31 trillion. This was the largest reduction ever recorded in a single quarter (repost from last night)
⫸Pentagon isn't the brightest bulb in government
⫸I've got a compadre in the anti-"green shoots" brigade

"looking on S&P for the current earnings leads to a spreadsheet that ends on 6-30-08."

I guess they laid off the guy who maintained the spreadsheet.

Green shoots sounds like some kind of environmentally safe ammo.

AMF,

Yap stones! Yes!

Try and print those puppies!

Rai stones - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I'm making some good money going long in this market.

So long as the major indexes remain below their 200 dma's, this is still a bear market.

Bear market rallies that occurred during the Great Depression.

November 1929 - April 1930: +48%

June 1930 - September 1930: +12%

December 1930 - February 1931: +21%

May 1931 - June 1931: +27%

October 1932 - November 1931: +35%

July 1932 - September 1932: +72%

If you don't take your profits, somebody else will.

You could just use OpenID. Allows you to log in using your existing identity at any of dozens of other places, including AIM, Livejournal, even Google. Full list of providers here: The OpenID Directory > OpenID Providers

So what did three months cost again? (TNX http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ETNX#chart2:symbol=^tnx;range=3m;indicator=sma(20,50,200)+volume+rsi+macd;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined)

"10y bond 3.15% +0.03 (0.96%)"

If this keeps up, that deficit is going to be kind of pricey to maintain. Especially with the GDP falling. Unless of course we just print our way out of debt.