yesterday, after repeatedly hearing everywhere the trumpeting that "expectations are beaten", i went on a hunt for these earnings.
well, there really is no PE on the S&P 500 because the earnings are negative.
NEGATIVE.
With 92% of all S&P 500 companies reporting, the earnings are a -$11.82 according to Standard & Poor’s.
[added later]
going through the S&P site more thoroughly. It is remarkably non current in various ways. i think the -$11.82 was for 4Q 08. the link i had was crap. every stat i encounter is always vs some estimate or vs trailing 12 months earnings.
no running total.
how hard is that to put together?
thanks mr. sparkle for the link that led to -$23.25 for 4Q 08 S&P 500 EPS. (opens a spreadsheet)
when you see the green "applause" sign begin clapping and continue until the green light goes off.
1.75 trillion dollars yesterday created to buy the fumes of our particleboard excesses.
again, AGAIN, the crooks blew enough money for every boomer in the country to go to the doctor, get their teeth fixed, get hair transplants, and get boob jobs. enough for every child to truly have a laptop and a maid. someone yesterday said it is enough to pay everyone's mortgage for three years. hell, it is probably enough money to send all our pets into space. there are other choices!!!!!!!!
barf, just barf.
unemployment is still rising.
all the fake news is going to undermine what little credibility the media and the government have left. it is irresponsible and damaging for our media and our government to continue hiding from reality!
.
.
are our memories really that short?
.
.
don't buy the feel good story. it will be bad for you.
Federal tax receipts off 28% YOY as budget deficit explodes.
“During the first five months of fiscal 2009, which began Oct. 1, the country’s deficit swelled to a record $764.5 billion for the period, compared with a $265 billion shortfall during the same period a year earlier. “
“Corporate tax receipts totaled $52.8 billion through February, down from $96.9 billion in the first five months of fiscal 2008, the Treasury said. Individual income tax collections were down 13 percent so far this fiscal year, totaling $388.5 billion through February compared with $446.9 billion in the year-earlier period.”
NO big money bought the WFC Easter rally. None. $680 million flowed out of JPM, BAC, and GS on that Thursday. This trend continues. the insiders are NOT buying.
the decline in the four-week average of weekly claims suggests there is a reasonable chance that the peak in weekly claims has happened for this cycle.
Why do you think this is the case given the context of decline? Do you not think that there will be a wave of second order consequences? I'm curious how you reconcile this with the impending automaker BK and the fact that so many business are surviving on cash burn.
there is a reasonable chance that the peak in weekly claims has happened for this cycle.
If so, then the next question is whether it's a 1982 type peak or a 2001 type peak. The jobless claims need to decline significantly. If they "level off" for the next 2 years like 2001 except at 600k per month we're headed for very dark times.
I am afraid we may be "saving up" some higher numbers for the weeks ahead when Chrysler / GM / (and potentially others) enter bankruptcy or otherwise begin their restructuring process. The forecasts for jobs lost out of auto and auto-related are a little scary, even if there are long-term benefits to industry. (But I am not trying to step on anyone's Green Shoots ... I hope the later revisions are kind!)
Corporate profits beat expectations by reducing payments to labor through job eliminations...a relatively one off event, as capacity is reduced and particulary end demand due to increased unemployment. Feedback effects will manifest in continuing declines in consumer spending.
Job Cuts Avert Catastrophic Quarter as Profits Excel (Update1)
By Edmond Lococo and Scott Hamilton
April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Corporate earnings worldwide haven’t been the disaster analysts predicted as companies from Ford Motor Co. to Siemens AG beat earnings estimates through job cuts, factory consolidations and a dose of lowered expectations.
“It’s one of those things where you walk away from the car crash and think, ‘Well, that could’ve been a lot worse,’” said Andy Lynch, who helps manage about $5 billion at Schroder Investment Management Ltd. in London. “The first quarter is marginally less catastrophic than feared.”
Paul Kasriel: "As we said at the outset of this commentary, this is the most severe recession the U.S.
economy has endured in the post-WWII era. But bear in mind that there has never been a more
vigorous monetary policy and fiscal policy response than what is now occurring. The
unemployment rate is destined to move higher over the remainder of this year and probably
over the first half of 2010. Credit problems will continue to plague the financial system. But
with the federal government stepping in to provide demand for goods and services as the
private nonfinancial sectors delever and with the Federal Reserve providing credit to the
nonfinancial sector as the private financial sector recapitalizes, the economy stands a good
chance of beginning a recovery by the fourth quarter of this year."
April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Chrysler LLC will proceed today with a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing, an Obama administration official said.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that the failure of some small creditors to agree to a final settlement is prompting the bankruptcy option.
My company have had 10% layoffs globally, its surely the first wave as we have sales forecasts with major upticks in the final Qtr of the year...what happens when reality bites ?
Corporate earnings worldwide haven’t been the disaster analysts predicted as companies from Ford Motor Co. to Siemens AG beat earnings estimates through job cuts, factory consolidations and a dose of lowered expectations.
So how does the inventory drawdown play into this?
what are the chances that the debt holder hedge funds that refused concessions are holding sizable CDO positions that will net them more money if Chrysler goes belly up?
April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Corporate earnings worldwide haven’t been the disaster analysts predicted as companies from Ford Motor Co. to Siemens AG beat earnings estimates through job cuts, factory consolidations and a dose of lowered expectations.
Again, that's the oldest Wall Street trick in the book - chronically underestimating earnings so the stocks rally when they beat expectations.
WASHINGTON, April 30 (Reuters) - A small group of hedge funds rejected a final opportunity to restructure auto maker Chrysler LLC outside of bankruptcy in negotiations with the U.S. Treasury, an Obama administration offical said on Thursday.
U.S. officials had offered Chrysler's secured lenders $2.25 billion in cash in exchange for forgiving their first lien debt, the official said.
"Their failure to act in either their own economic interest or the national interest does not diminish the accomplishments made by Chrysler, Fiat and its stakeholders nor will it impede the new opportunity Chrysler now has to restructure and emerge stronger going forward," the official said.
Earnings negative people. Nothing good could come from this. Unless you short the S&P. Which I won't. But you could, and try to beat them at their game. I don't recommend it though.
With 92% of all S&P 500 companies reporting, the earnings are a -$11.82 according to Standard & Poor’s.
Where are you getting these figures? Even S&P's own web site lists index earnings only through 4/22, at which point only 38% of the components had reported.
And keep in mind earnings for the entire S&P 500 were negative last quarter, too, on both an operating and as-reported basis. So having them repeat the feat this quarter wouldn't surprise me. In fact I'm expecting it, or something very close.
But never fear! Analysts predict that the index will still earn $76.20 a share for the 2010 calendar year. That's only, what, double the level they're at now? C'mon, let's at least challenge these guys! :rolls eyes:
I suspect that negative earnings report is old and is about the 4Q, nowhere close to 92% of all S&P 500 firms have reported, and earnings are generally coming in better than expected. I call BS on it.
ac wrote
Just keep in mind that the financial industry has taken over the government and by implication Bernanke's printing presses.
Negative earnings won't stop Wall Street from hooking the printing presses up the the stock market.
Yalt (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 4/29/2009 - 10:45 am
Are you asserting that there is no gravity ?
They can squeeze you down just as easily as they can squeeze you up.
I'm certainly not saying we go up forever--but if you're asking me if I think the supposed economic laws pertaining to markets have been suspended I suppose the answer is yes. "Gravity" is a consequence of the discipline imposed on traders by the possibility of being forced to take a loss.
again, AGAIN, the crooks blew enough money yesterday (1.75T) for every child to truly have a laptop, school supplies, clothes through high school, a car, braces, food and a maid. someone yesterday said it is enough to pay everyone's mortgage for three years. hell, it is probably enough to send all our pets into space. there are other choices!!!!!!!!
Anyone see houses selling? I'm not seeing stuff move in my neighborhoods in the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area of North Carolina? As far as I can tell, sellers still are pricing things fairly near peak here.
Maybe the Shadow knows better than I, but if gold dropping 1.5% is "dropping like a stone" what would one make of financial stocks performance, in comparison?
"In the week ended April 25, there were 631,000 initial jobless claims filed, down 14,000 from a revised-up 645,000 the previous week, the Labor Department said." [emphasis mine]
The previous week's initial number being 640,000, from what I can gather. So claims did fall, but only by 9,000 from the initial claims, not 14,000. And who knows? This week's numbers could be revised up more than 5000, thus closing therevised comparison gap even further. Do we even know what the margin of error is? If it is greater than 14,000, the "drop" could very well be insignificant.
I just can't get over how the media keeps getting away with making these revised numbers vs. initial numbers comparisons to show "surprising" month-to-month increases or decreases, when it is clearly apples to oranges.
Iceman:
almost, listed a house and it's under contract already, was on the mkt for 7 days,....not sold yet though, still need to get past inspection and appraisal. we'll see, but in one week had 15 showings and got the offer for 97% of ask price, was listed at what we bought for in 2003 (but i added built out basement 2 yrs ago at $10k). so some things are looking like they can move if priced right. including the basement i added we were offered 93% of our total cost (house + upgrades). that isn't the nightmare i expected...20% ish discount.
just one data point, maybe i'm just lucky. keeping my fingers crossed.
Dirk van Dijk (profile) wrote on Thu, 4/30/2009 - 6:25 am
"I suspect that negative earnings report is old and is about the 4Q, nowhere close to 92% of all S&P 500 firms have reported, and earnings are generally coming in better than expected. I call BS on it."
the earnings number i quoted could be wrong. truth is i am having a hard time finding a site that keeps a running total or a graph on S&P 500 earnings. so, if i quoted a crap stat I apologize.
the main thrust remains that we are not comparing present performance to past performance and this measure is the only one that will ultimately matter.
earnings actually suck pretty badly and cannot be reasonably expected to improve in the near quarters.
i am definitely not a pro analyst or a pedigreed pedagogue. i am just an average guy. what i put up earlier is just what an average guy can figure out from the "available" facts.
This is another very weak report, however the decline in the four-week average of weekly claims suggests there is a reasonable chance that the peak in weekly claims has happened for this cycle.
Dead thread but I'd guess most companies have RIFed the low hanging fruit and are well into the 'necessary & productive' workforce... I know my wife's company is there... three waves behind them and another wave to come and everyone on that list performs an essential function. The first layoffs are always the easiest...
A lot of companies are like that so the weekly new claims might slow but only because companies are having to make tougher and tougher decisions. The only way they can cut faster & deeper is to close down entirely - some of that will happen but it will be the last straw not the first response.
whee
1
BLS determines OER by asking "owner households" the following question:
"If someone were to rent your home today, how much do you think it would rent for monthly, unfurnished and without utilities?"
I wonder if BLS tells them to peek at their 2006 Zillow values first.
Oh yeah. We are out of the dip.
yesterday, after repeatedly hearing everywhere the trumpeting that "expectations are beaten", i went on a hunt for these earnings.
well, there really is no PE on the S&P 500 because the earnings are negative.
NEGATIVE.
With 92% of all S&P 500 companies reporting, the earnings are a -$11.82 according to Standard & Poor’s.
[added later]
going through the S&P site more thoroughly. It is remarkably non current in various ways. i think the -$11.82 was for 4Q 08. the link i had was crap. every stat i encounter is always vs some estimate or vs trailing 12 months earnings.
no running total.
how hard is that to put together?
thanks mr. sparkle for the link that led to -$23.25 for 4Q 08 S&P 500 EPS. (opens a spreadsheet)
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS
[edit end]
when you see the green "applause" sign begin clapping and continue until the green light goes off.
1.75 trillion dollars yesterday created to buy the fumes of our particleboard excesses.
again, AGAIN, the crooks blew enough money for every boomer in the country to go to the doctor, get their teeth fixed, get hair transplants, and get boob jobs. enough for every child to truly have a laptop and a maid. someone yesterday said it is enough to pay everyone's mortgage for three years. hell, it is probably enough money to send all our pets into space. there are other choices!!!!!!!!
barf, just barf.
unemployment is still rising.
all the fake news is going to undermine what little credibility the media and the government have left. it is irresponsible and damaging for our media and our government to continue hiding from reality!
.
.
are our memories really that short?
.
.
don't buy the feel good story. it will be bad for you.
.
.
.
.
Bank CRE portfolios are ½ junk rated
Calculated Risk: Corporate Credit Union Portfolio: From AAA to Junk
CRE loans are selling for 40-50% off.
FDIC is liquidating loans at 50% off
Massive wave of delayed foreclosures beginning.
4-7 — CA Foreclosures About to Soar…Again | Mr. Mortgage Blog | Field Check Group: Real Estate & Finance
Time (partners with CNN) says the banking crisis is over (contrary indicator).
Bullshit is widely called on Time. Maybe no better than here:
Zero Hedge: The Imminent Disinformation Schism
Federal tax receipts off 28% YOY as budget deficit explodes.
“During the first five months of fiscal 2009, which began Oct. 1, the country’s deficit swelled to a record $764.5 billion for the period, compared with a $265 billion shortfall during the same period a year earlier. “
“Corporate tax receipts totaled $52.8 billion through February, down from $96.9 billion in the first five months of fiscal 2008, the Treasury said. Individual income tax collections were down 13 percent so far this fiscal year, totaling $388.5 billion through February compared with $446.9 billion in the year-earlier period.”
U.S. February Budget Deficit Widened as Revenue Fell (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
U.S. February Budget Deficit Widened as Revenue Fell (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Russell 2000 has a 35 (ahem, 40) twelve month trailing PE.
P/Es & Yields on Major Indexes - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
stress tests a stall tactic.
Geithners Stress Test "A Complete Sham," Former Federal Bank Regulator Says: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance
NO big money bought the WFC Easter rally. None. $680 million flowed out of JPM, BAC, and GS on that Thursday. This trend continues. the insiders are NOT buying.
http://content.screencast.com/users/Triptico/folders/Default/media/3e798575-cf9b-4705-8f59-8e7d0d12fe59/Picture%202.png
U-6 unemployment change rate still accelerating into J curve. 600,000+ first time unemployment claims per week.
http://energyecon.blogspot.com/2009/04/u-6-year-over-year-changes-continued.html
Treasury has to roll over $1.4 T in debt between April and June.
energyecon: Treasury Marketable Debt Maturity Redux
Budget deficit for 2009 currently estimated at $1.5T (see above blooomberg link).
Fed purchasing Treasuries on the open market, blatantly monetizing debt.
Fed to Start Purchasing Treasuries to Unfreeze Credit (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Trade deficit drops sharply to nine tear low showing the US consumer is truly tapped out.
U.S. Economy: Trade Gap Narrows to Nine-Year Low (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Half of nation's hospitals running losses
Healthcare - Los Angeles Times
G-7 Industrial Production Crashing
Jesse's Café Américain: G7 Industrial Production Crashing
State budget deficits?
Recession Continues to Batter State Budgets; State Responses Could Slow Recovery — Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
Did I miss something? Like CDS time bombs, insurance companies Tarped, unfunded pensions, interest rate swaps, berkshire downgraded, ...
when you see the green "applause" sign start clapping and continue until the light goes off.
the decline in the four-week average of weekly claims suggests there is a reasonable chance that the peak in weekly claims has happened for this cycle.
Why do you think this is the case given the context of decline? Do you not think that there will be a wave of second order consequences? I'm curious how you reconcile this with the impending automaker BK and the fact that so many business are surviving on cash burn.
To much a claim, our economy has been heralded.
there is a reasonable chance that the peak in weekly claims has happened for this cycle.
If so, then the next question is whether it's a 1982 type peak or a 2001 type peak. The jobless claims need to decline significantly. If they "level off" for the next 2 years like 2001 except at 600k per month we're headed for very dark times.
I am afraid we may be "saving up" some higher numbers for the weeks ahead when Chrysler / GM / (and potentially others) enter bankruptcy or otherwise begin their restructuring process. The forecasts for jobs lost out of auto and auto-related are a little scary, even if there are long-term benefits to industry. (But I am not trying to step on anyone's Green Shoots ... I hope the later revisions are kind!)
TAKE THE MARKET ON THAT!!!!!!!
Corporate profits beat expectations by reducing payments to labor through job eliminations...a relatively one off event, as capacity is reduced and particulary end demand due to increased unemployment. Feedback effects will manifest in continuing declines in consumer spending.
Job Cuts Avert Catastrophic Quarter as Profits Excel (Update1)
By Edmond Lococo and Scott Hamilton
April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Corporate earnings worldwide haven’t been the disaster analysts predicted as companies from Ford Motor Co. to Siemens AG beat earnings estimates through job cuts, factory consolidations and a dose of lowered expectations.
“It’s one of those things where you walk away from the car crash and think, ‘Well, that could’ve been a lot worse,’” said Andy Lynch, who helps manage about $5 billion at Schroder Investment Management Ltd. in London. “The first quarter is marginally less catastrophic than feared.”
Job Cuts Avert Catastrophic Quarter as Profits Excel (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
Paul Kasriel: "As we said at the outset of this commentary, this is the most severe recession the U.S.
economy has endured in the post-WWII era. But bear in mind that there has never been a more
vigorous monetary policy and fiscal policy response than what is now occurring. The
unemployment rate is destined to move higher over the remainder of this year and probably
over the first half of 2010. Credit problems will continue to plague the financial system. But
with the federal government stepping in to provide demand for goods and services as the
private nonfinancial sectors delever and with the Federal Reserve providing credit to the
nonfinancial sector as the private financial sector recapitalizes, the economy stands a good
chance of beginning a recovery by the fourth quarter of this year."
Source {including serious chart porn} [caution PDF file]
http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com:80/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0904/document/us0409.pdf
Chrysler Will File for Bankruptcy, Administration Official Says
By Roger Runningen
April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Chrysler LLC will proceed today with a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing, an Obama administration official said.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that the failure of some small creditors to agree to a final settlement is prompting the bankruptcy option.
My company have had 10% layoffs globally, its surely the first wave as we have sales forecasts with major upticks in the final Qtr of the year...what happens when reality bites ?
I'd best get my deposit back for the 2010 Fi-Chry I ordered.
Corporate earnings worldwide haven’t been the disaster analysts predicted as companies from Ford Motor Co. to Siemens AG beat earnings estimates through job cuts, factory consolidations and a dose of lowered expectations.
So how does the inventory drawdown play into this?
what are the chances that the debt holder hedge funds that refused concessions are holding sizable CDO positions that will net them more money if Chrysler goes belly up?
Job Cuts Avert Catastrophic Quarter as Profits Excel (Update1)
where are the savings going to come from this quarter, to boost up earnings?
Blast retarded expectations!
the S&P 500 earnings are negative.
NEGATIVE.
With 92% of all S&P 500 companies reporting, the earnings are a -$11.82 according to Standard & Poor’s.
With 92% of all S&P 500 companies reporting, the earnings are a -$11.82 according to Standard & Poor’s.
Maybe those uncounted ballots will swing things to the plus side.
Why do you hate America so much?
April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Corporate earnings worldwide haven’t been the disaster analysts predicted as companies from Ford Motor Co. to Siemens AG beat earnings estimates through job cuts, factory consolidations and a dose of lowered expectations.
Again, that's the oldest Wall Street trick in the book - chronically underestimating earnings so the stocks rally when they beat expectations.
It's all the fault of the evil hedge funds:
Chrysler hedge fund holdouts reject offer-US official
WASHINGTON, April 30 (Reuters) - A small group of hedge funds rejected a final opportunity to restructure auto maker Chrysler LLC outside of bankruptcy in negotiations with the U.S. Treasury, an Obama administration offical said on Thursday.
U.S. officials had offered Chrysler's secured lenders $2.25 billion in cash in exchange for forgiving their first lien debt, the official said.
"Their failure to act in either their own economic interest or the national interest does not diminish the accomplishments made by Chrysler, Fiat and its stakeholders nor will it impede the new opportunity Chrysler now has to restructure and emerge stronger going forward," the official said.
19th Century Claim Jumper: One who wrongfully or illegally seizes and holds the place of another.
21st Century Claim Jumper: One who accidentally got left out of the unemployment numbers for the previous month
Blast retarded expectations!
the S&P 500 earnings are negative.
NEGATIVE.
With 92% of all S&P 500 companies reporting, the earnings are a -$11.82 according to Standard & Poor’s.
Just keep in mind that the financial industry has taken over the government and by implication Bernanke's printing presses.
Negative earnings won't stop Wall Street from hooking the printing presses up the the stock market.
These markets haven't been about economic value for years now. This is the necessary consequence of inflationary policy.
What's more overvalued?
Stocks @ 10 times earnings, or homes @ 10 times annual salary?
while i'm at it,
BLAST the BLS and their phony statistics!
Booooo Hisssss Boooooooooooo
otishertz writes: Did I miss something?"
Just the mushroom cloud on the horizon.
Earnings negative people. Nothing good could come from this. Unless you short the S&P. Which I won't. But you could, and try to beat them at their game. I don't recommend it though.
......nice one, Otis.....
With 92% of all S&P 500 companies reporting, the earnings are a -$11.82 according to Standard & Poor’s.
Where are you getting these figures? Even S&P's own web site lists index earnings only through 4/22, at which point only 38% of the components had reported.
And keep in mind earnings for the entire S&P 500 were negative last quarter, too, on both an operating and as-reported basis. So having them repeat the feat this quarter wouldn't surprise me. In fact I'm expecting it, or something very close.
But never fear! Analysts predict that the index will still earn $76.20 a share for the 2010 calendar year. That's only, what, double the level they're at now? C'mon, let's at least challenge these guys! :rolls eyes:
i am amazed by the national short term memory loss.
all those statistics and links are recent.
can we forget what happened yesterday?
I suspect that negative earnings report is old and is about the 4Q, nowhere close to 92% of all S&P 500 firms have reported, and earnings are generally coming in better than expected. I call BS on it.
ac wrote
Just keep in mind that the financial industry has taken over the government and by implication Bernanke's printing presses.
Negative earnings won't stop Wall Street from hooking the printing presses up the the stock market.
Yalt (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 4/29/2009 - 10:45 am
Are you asserting that there is no gravity ?
They can squeeze you down just as easily as they can squeeze you up.
I'm certainly not saying we go up forever--but if you're asking me if I think the supposed economic laws pertaining to markets have been suspended I suppose the answer is yes. "Gravity" is a consequence of the discipline imposed on traders by the possibility of being forced to take a loss.
Watch those Statements of Cash Flows. Now more than ever. No one is spending cash on infrastructure in anticipation of explosive growth.
In 2008, earnings with negative cash flow = BS (or corporate suicide).
It must doubly suck to be short and right, but wrong because of market manipulation.
<------------- Vegas is that way if you'd like bettor odds
@otishertz - Do you have a link for that -$11.82 figure? I'm looking at S&P's page and I'm not quite sure how you came up with that number.
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS
@Dirk - Agreed. (See link I posted just before this). Stale info or something else.
MGM screaming this morning...
people, it doesn't matter what you say, earnings are negative and have been
only one way things can go, enjoy the ride
The slight decline in new claims is like the difference between having your carotid cut vs your aorta.
Can I still get a Dodge Viper in Metallic Elmo Red?
"MGM screaming this morning... "
I loaded up on SRZ at 1$ and am feeling pretty good about that now.
again, AGAIN, the crooks blew enough money yesterday (1.75T) for every child to truly have a laptop, school supplies, clothes through high school, a car, braces, food and a maid. someone yesterday said it is enough to pay everyone's mortgage for three years. hell, it is probably enough to send all our pets into space. there are other choices!!!!!!!!
Chrysler BK, suppliers already in the tank, continued claims at a fresh record again... What's not to like ? Climb that wall of worry. BUY BUY BUY!!
Otis, my man!
Awesome eCONomic round-up. The markets and reality are like "day and night." This eCONomy hertz.
Gold is dropping like a stone.
24 Hour Gold Chart - Last 3 Days
Insanity.
With S&P earnings negative, someone should pay us to buy the stocks, considering the P/E.
U.S. April Chicago PMI rises to 40.1% from 31.4%
9:46 AM ET, Apr 30, 2009
MarketWatch.com Search
Anyone see houses selling? I'm not seeing stuff move in my neighborhoods in the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area of North Carolina? As far as I can tell, sellers still are pricing things fairly near peak here.
Maybe the Shadow knows better than I, but if gold dropping 1.5% is "dropping like a stone" what would one make of financial stocks performance, in comparison?
From CNN:
"In the week ended April 25, there were 631,000 initial jobless claims filed, down 14,000 from a revised-up 645,000 the previous week, the Labor Department said." [emphasis mine]
The previous week's initial number being 640,000, from what I can gather. So claims did fall, but only by 9,000 from the initial claims, not 14,000. And who knows? This week's numbers could be revised up more than 5000, thus closing therevised comparison gap even further. Do we even know what the margin of error is? If it is greater than 14,000, the "drop" could very well be insignificant.
I just can't get over how the media keeps getting away with making these revised numbers vs. initial numbers comparisons to show "surprising" month-to-month increases or decreases, when it is clearly apples to oranges.
....think instead about the 600K+ of new unemployed part (emphasis is mine). There is no "pretty" part of that.
Iceman:
almost, listed a house and it's under contract already, was on the mkt for 7 days,....not sold yet though, still need to get past inspection and appraisal. we'll see, but in one week had 15 showings and got the offer for 97% of ask price, was listed at what we bought for in 2003 (but i added built out basement 2 yrs ago at $10k). so some things are looking like they can move if priced right. including the basement i added we were offered 93% of our total cost (house + upgrades). that isn't the nightmare i expected...20% ish discount.
just one data point, maybe i'm just lucky. keeping my fingers crossed.
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Thu, 4/30/2009 - 6:20 a
......nice one, Otis.....''''
i got some help from energyecon and firlight2012 on the last two links, respectively.
Dirk van Dijk (profile) wrote on Thu, 4/30/2009 - 6:25 am
"I suspect that negative earnings report is old and is about the 4Q, nowhere close to 92% of all S&P 500 firms have reported, and earnings are generally coming in better than expected. I call BS on it."
the earnings number i quoted could be wrong. truth is i am having a hard time finding a site that keeps a running total or a graph on S&P 500 earnings. so, if i quoted a crap stat I apologize.
the main thrust remains that we are not comparing present performance to past performance and this measure is the only one that will ultimately matter.
earnings actually suck pretty badly and cannot be reasonably expected to improve in the near quarters.
i am definitely not a pro analyst or a pedigreed pedagogue. i am just an average guy. what i put up earlier is just what an average guy can figure out from the "available" facts.
This is another very weak report, however the decline in the four-week average of weekly claims suggests there is a reasonable chance that the peak in weekly claims has happened for this cycle.
Dead thread but I'd guess most companies have RIFed the low hanging fruit and are well into the 'necessary & productive' workforce... I know my wife's company is there... three waves behind them and another wave to come and everyone on that list performs an essential function. The first layoffs are always the easiest...
A lot of companies are like that so the weekly new claims might slow but only because companies are having to make tougher and tougher decisions. The only way they can cut faster & deeper is to close down entirely - some of that will happen but it will be the last straw not the first response.