Ranieri: Housing Is ‘Shouting Distance’ From Bottom
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Wed, 04/29/2009 - 12:01pm (186 comments)
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Well, the market shrugs off the news of higher than expected GDP loss and no new news from the Federal Reserve to end higher on the day. My only guess is that saw the increase in personal spending in the GDP report as positive.
The charts still scare me.
SHARP V-Bottom in equities ?
You know how you can ignore commenters on here? If he really was talking about home prices, I would like some way of ignoring his comments on the web.
When you shout into the bottom of a Grand Canyon, all you get back is a belated echo...
"He founded Houston-based Franklin Bank Corp., which filed for bankruptcy in November. While Franklin avoided the subprime mortgage market, his firm was burned by loans to builders in California, Arizona, Florida and Michigan, where foreclosures are among the highest in the U.S."
Maybe Ranieri wants to start a new firm, or owns some of the bonds Franklin sold.
Maybe Ranieri is going to pick up some of the NOD's/Foreclosures in my zip...
"Berkshire won't release earnings report this week"
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
“We have this amazing basket of inventory to play with,” he said. “Think of what we’re doing in terms of enfranchising people who could never have gotten into this house.”
His basket runneth over!
"“We have this amazing basket of inventory to play with,” he said. “Think of what we’re doing in terms of enfranchising people who could never have gotten into this house.”
What? How long has it been since you had to be a landowner to vote in the US? 200 years maybe? We started with white male landowners over 21 could vote. I think the landowner restriction went first, then the racial restrictions, then women could vote, then 18 year olds.
So they halt trading on MGM, but you can still trade bonds and swaps. This is a fun game, mr. pigman.
lifeguard, I put no credence in the actions or purported actors of the market.
Given that volume is lighter and that 30% of NYSE volume has been program trading, there is less 'reasoned, rational voting' going on in the market any given day.
Me, I'm just waiting for the inevitable panic/capitulation by the sheeple, as we had in the fall.
There are many ugly potential triggers out there, and any one will suffice.
Not that I am hoping for any, it is just that such is inevitable.
Shouting as in "AIIIEEEEE"?
Once again....great big chunks of the Big Shitpile aren’t "impaired," or "illiquid," or "distressed," they’re worthless, now and forever – unless the peak real estate values of the bubble can miraculously be restored.
Shouting into the abyss? If he is talking about home prices more power to him he will help prop things up a little longer...
N/BCY , R/PK and N/HLT have gotten a lot of use on my Thomson today
Hat tip to sidd: Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
"In each of the past three years, the Omaha-based company released its quarterly report on the Friday before its shareholder meeting.
This Saturday, the company expects more than 35,000 people to attend the annual meeting to listen to Buffett and Vice Chairman Charlie Munger answer questions for more than five hours.
But Berkshire spokeswoman Carrie Kizer said Wednesday the company's earnings report won't be released this week. Kizer says the release date has not been set."
Seems like maybe the grand Buffett choreography has run into some snags this year?
Also, maybe there's some concern about a new level of skeptical, maybe even hostile questioning?
Jeff Matthews: Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up
Again, we are letting nomenclature confuse us.
When people say 'bottom' most people wrongly 'hear the word ' recovery.
Some utter the word bottom precisely to get that Pavlovian response.
As I said, even 'L'-shaped Recovery is poor nomenclature because unlike the 'V', 'U' or 'W', there's no recovery, it is a descent. And that is apropos in 2009 cuz there's no fundamental fix to household balance sheets. More debt from banks to households doesn’t help. And there's no mechanism for decoupling US wages from the tidal pull, downward, from globalized wage structures.
I can't wait to see, 10-20 years from now, the chronology of bottom-calls, in stocks and real estate. It'll be just as fascinating as reading those from the Depression era.
Hopefully, those calling the bottoms will have to suffer some hit to their credibility.
I wonder how many flu cases will derive from the Berkshire shareholder arena festival?
Agree with further capitulation.
Agree this market will rally on the downside looking for the bottom, slip on the rocks, and fall over the waterfall...more rocks...more waterfalls. rinse wash repeat.
--bh
@ Wisdom, did u see my comment yesterday regarding your referencing my comment posted @ The Big Picture regarding cognitive dissonance and (Pandemic Flu) crises?
My favorite commercial with BHO is the "clean coal" industry one. Of course Obama loves coal (supposedly) and extended the ethanol subsidies so he just took W's seat at the same Poker Table.
" I think the landowner restriction went first, then the racial restrictions, then women could vote, then 18 year olds"
Yeah, we're still paying the price for that mistake. hahaha.
Level 5 announced!
Buy faster, Otis, buy faster!
WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION TO MAKE ANNOUNC IN 20 MINS; [Update - Has been raised to Level 5]
I'd be enthusiastic about telling you the bottom is near if I had a load of RE assets to sell.
Just beyond that housing bottom you can see nanotechnology, and from there AI, and just a little further is controlled fusion,...and beyond that my crystal ball is cloudy,...but I think I see an end to stupidity,... oh wait, that's the other side of this universe, must be the back of my head.
WHO has declared phase 5.
How do I get one of these jobs, getting paid to lie to the public?
Level 5 - the same layer MBS/CDO/CDS assets reside... how ironic.
CALIFORNIA LOVE
Cities With Jobless Rates of 15% or More
Metro Area State March 2009 Jobless Rate Rise From March 2008
El Centro CA 25.1%
Merced CA 20.4%
Yuba City CA 19.5%
Elkhart-Goshen IN 18.8%
Visalia-Porterville CA 17.7%
Modesto CA 17.5%
Bend OR 17.0%
Fresno CA 17.0%
Redding CA 16.8%
Hanford-Corcoran CA 16.7%
Stockton CA 16.4%
Bakersfield CA 15.9%
CalculatedRisk ,
Another question-
How will people react when they discover that "the wizards of oz" were just clever charlatans?
They'll play
the Swine Flu Card
for all it's worth
in explaining the
economic crash ...
You can hear
Wall Street Now ...
c'mon Swine Flu ...
cover our ass ...
Jerry
Go to law school. Hitch onto a social cause. Sit back and enjoy the ride.
Favorite city name "El centro"
wow he must be able to yell very loudly since it is shouting distance or he is just guessing
“We have this amazing basket of inventory to play with,” he said. “Think of what we’re doing in terms of enfranchising people who could never have gotten into this house.”
Yay! We should have these crashes more often! How refreshingly enfranchising they are.
I wish I were within 'shouting distance' of Lewie right now.
Those new model homes the banks had razed in that video seem somewhat impaired.
Flu vaccine not available till September. No one has immunity to this virus because it is brand new.
There should be a lottery who gets the vaccine, not just the monied elite and well healed.
Shouting distance? I guess the question is how loud Ranieri can shout.
No one can talk about a "bottom" when Fannie/Freddie alone have over 1 million borrowers currently 60 days past due.
Maybe the idea is that since now everyone will be allowed to stay in their house forever without paying anything, no one will ever try to sell their house. Hence a "market bottom" created because supply is as low as demand.
Worthy of a post on CR, think not, me thinks this is Barney's brother. Enfranchising people who either could not read or was in line to be scamed is one of the reasons we sit where we sit today. A Ponzie for us all brother, all we have to do is hope and believe and zazaam we shall receive a ration of the good life from our very own goverment. Watch, the next bubble just might be in tampons.
That was easy. What was the fuss about. Some dumbass speculators, flippers and late players lost some money. The consequences seem small. Everyone bailed out. Chinese hold a poop bag of semi worthless treasuries. Gm and Circuit City sucked anyway. Now why is my business slow? Oh, my slow business is the real consequence. Oops for me. Bailout? No, huh?
[Well the call to level 5 is a simple recognition of what has already occurred]
When do we go from travel advisories to travel restrictions ?
"“We’re within shouting distance of a bottom.”"
Is that what the Twin Tower office workers said
on 9/11 ?
Favorite city name "El centro"
It occurred to me a while ago how ridiculous places with Spanish names sound when you translate them to English. For example, I used to eat at "The Bull" restaurant (the sign says "El Toro") and "Lupita's House" (Casa Lupita).
For strange looks, drop translations like "The Bull" into casual conversations.
There should be a lottery who gets the vaccine, not just the monied elite and well healed.
If they're already well healed, they don't need a vaccine.
Tim, any readings for Tehachapi (sp?), Jas' town?
What does Jas do all day out there? I read that the military has a mysterious DUMB (deep underground military base) out there.
Maybe that it is the genesis for 'Dopes' in his lexicon?
enfranchising?
Is this really a word? Or is it just new speak?
All social engineering is preceded by verbal engineering
Think about what that word means to you..
we are defranchised?
I want to run over him with my car...
edited to fix the usual mistakes
“Think of what we’re doing in terms of enfranchising people who could never have gotten into this house.”
Deja vu ... the ownership society is reborn!
I guess the market did bottom when pigs began to fly. ** barrup bup **
nova,
enfranchising is giving the right to vote.
I not only had a front row seat for the end of the world today, I was on stage, bidding at a foreclosure sale, Plaintiff atty this time.
I had actually gotten 100 dollars out of my mouth when the clerk handed me the Suggestion of Bankruptcy.
Someone in the audience shouted out how high are your bidding, and told him and he didn't bid, and it didn't matter, 'cause with the bankruptcy everything's on hold.
Room crowded with vultures, but nobody bid on much of anything while I was there. I was pretty much at the beginning, a lot of sales afterwards. They don't hold it on the courthouse steps anymore. Sigh.
what about when mortgage rates go back to 8%?
Between the demoralization of society through brainwashing and cognitive dissonance(Cognitive dis-harmony) discussions I've been pushing, some people are actually starting to get it. I fear it's too late however for society after seeing the reaction of people to Scare Force One over NYC the other day.
Wiley Coyote wipes his brow and breathes a sigh of relief.
Do I need to say anything more?
Presumptions, presumptions. When we hit that elusive bottom, will there be a bounce or a 'thud'? That's the real question. That is more important than 'are we at the bottom'?
Krugman is seriously dissed (via omission) by Obambi ( - NY Times
The NYTimes reporter asks him about voices like Krugman and Stiglitz and Obama says . . .
"Keep in mind, though, I mean, I have enormous respect for somebody like Joe Stiglitz. I read his stuff all the time. I actually am looking forward to having these folks in for ongoing discussion. Somebody who has enormous influence over my thinking is Paul Volcker, who is robust enough that, having presided over the Carter and Reagan years, he’s still sharp as a tack and able to give me huge advice and to provide some counterbalance."
Makes a point of not talking about Krugman. You know Paul's head is going to explode. I'm sure Larry Summers is crapping all over Krugman.
All Krugman has to do now is sound the alarm about how GD2 is upon us and he will be last economist in America with any cred.
" Tupuli (profile) wrote on Wed, 4/29/2009 - 1:26 pm
Favorite city name "El centro"
It occurred to me a while ago how ridiculous places with Spanish names sound when you translate them to English. For example, I used to eat at "The Bull" restaurant (the sign says "El Toro") and "Lupita's House" (Casa Lupita)."
For city name and street names, try "Los Banos" ("the baths," but colloquially "the bathroom"), or "Manteca" (Lard) or "Avenida de Las Pulgas (Flea Avenue), or "Los Gatos" ("The Cats').
Tim, most of those places are bad enough if you do have a job. Just imagine how many people will leave now that they are unemployed.
Houses in Yuba City might end up free.
Bod Dobbs Manteca is officially translated into "Cow Fat"
What the hell happened to treasuries today? Is the world running out of money to loan to us?
Treasury market is the final horseman. I'm not ready to die.
Wait and see investor guy
The World Health Organization website appears to have them at Pandemic Level 4 still, link from a reliable source appreciated. Below are excerpts from the situation updates posted to their website:
Swine influenza - update 5
29 April 2009 -- The situation continues to evolve rapidly. As of 18:00 GMT, 29 April 2009, nine countries have officially reported 148 cases of swine influenza A/H1N1 infection. The United States Government has reported 91 laboratory confirmed human cases, with one death. Mexico has reported 26 confirmed human cases of infection including seven deaths.
The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (13), Germany (3), Israel (2), New Zealand (3), Spain (4) and the United Kingdom (5).
Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO website on a regular basis.
WHO | Influenza A(H1N1) - update 5
Swine influenza - update 4
28 April 2009--The situation continues to evolve rapidly. As of 19:15 GMT, 28 April 2009, seven countries have officially reported cases of swine influenza A/H1N1 infection. The United States Government has reported 64 laboratory confirmed human cases, with no deaths. Mexico has reported 26 confirmed human cases of infection including seven deaths.
The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Canada (6), New Zealand (3), the United Kingdom (2), Israel (2) and Spain (2).
Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO website on a regular basis.
WHO | Swine influenza - update 4
Swine influenza - update 3
27 April 2009 -- The current situation regarding the outbreak of swine influenza A(H1N1) is evolving rapidly. As of 27 April 2009, the United States Government has reported 40 laboratory confirmed human cases of swine influenza A(H1N1), with no deaths. Mexico has reported 26 confirmed human cases of infection with the same virus, including seven deaths. Canada has reported six cases, with no deaths, while Spain has reported one case, with no deaths.
Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO website on a regular basis.
WHO | Swine influenza - update 3
Swine flu illness in the United States and Mexico - update 2
26 April 2009 -- As of 26 April 2009, the United States Government has reported 20 laboratory confirmed human cases of swine influenza A/H1N1 (8 in New York, 7 in California, 2 in Texas, 2 in Kansas and 1 in Ohio). All 20 cases have had mild Influenza-Like Illness with only one requiring brief hospitalization. No deaths have been reported. All 20 viruses have the same genetic pattern based on preliminary testing. The virus is being described as a new subtype of A/H1N1 not previously detected in swine or humans.
Also as of 26 April, the Government of Mexico has reported 18 laboratory confirmed cases of swine influenza A/H1N1. Investigation is continuing to clarify the spread and severity of the disease in Mexico. Suspect clinical cases have been reported in 19 of the country's 32 states.
WHO | Swine flu illness in the United States and Mexico - update 2
Influenza-like illness in the United States and Mexico
24 April 2009 -- The United States Government has reported seven confirmed human cases of Swine Influenza A/H1N1 in the USA (five in California and two in Texas) and nine suspect cases. All seven confirmed cases had mild Influenza-Like Illness (ILI), with only one requiring brief hospitalization. No deaths have been reported.
The Government of Mexico has reported three separate events. In the Federal District of Mexico, surveillance began picking up cases of ILI starting 18 March. The number of cases has risen steadily through April and as of 23 April there are now more than 854 cases of pneumonia from the capital. Of those, 59 have died. In San Luis Potosi, in central Mexico, 24 cases of ILI, with three deaths, have been reported. And from Mexicali, near the border with the United States, four cases of ILI, with no deaths, have been reported.
Of the Mexican cases, 18 have been laboratory confirmed in Canada as Swine Influenza A/H1N1, while 12 of those are genetically identical to the Swine Influenza A/H1N1 viruses from California.
WHO | Influenza-like illness in the United States and Mexico
what about when mortgage rates go back to 8%?
Looking at the 30 year treasury chart today is very instructive. Over 4%. So banks and the US gov are now lending 30 year mortgages at 4.5%? Nice cushioning for the added risk /snark.
residential - south tower
CRE - north tower
toxic dust
everywhere
Overheard a blind bat's echo-location... "bottom.... eeek eeek eek".
"Bod Dobbs Manteca is officially translated into "Cow Fat" "
Only if you're a yuppie.
My dream has always been to retire in National City, CA. No stinko foreign names for me. You may laugh at me, call me a dreamer. Yet, I don't care!
Maybe a condo. Yellow stucco, and near the pool so I can watch from my bedroom window on those hot days...
8%, 8%??? You guys aren't thinking big here. I personally closed 'em as high as 17 1/2 %. As I've
said before. Fixed rates. Some closed even higher.
Here's the credible source re pandemic alert level ... Mercury News ... but it is all over the place already. LA Times has twittered it and is about to come out with a story, etc etc
http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_12255164?nclick_check=1
The words "pandemic" and "raised" are the two most used words in the Twittersphere atm.
Within shouting distance - Time to activate the Cone of Silence...
EnergyEcon: We're at level 5 now, according to the WHO inspector general
Live Blog: Swine Flu Update from WHO Director-General - Health Blog - WSJ
For city name and street names, try "Los Banos" ("the baths," but colloquially "the bathroom"), or "Manteca" (Lard) or "Avenida de Las Pulgas (Flea Avenue), or "Los Gatos" ("The Cats').
Those are good. FL has the cities of Punta Gorda (fat point) and Boca Raton (rat's mouth).
I suppose WHO is not wasting this crisis either... I smell an attempt to grab more money/power...
Anyone else thinking about looking at some TBT in the morning?
Flu vaccine not available till September. No one has immunity to this virus because it is brand new.
There should be a lottery who gets the vaccine, not just the monied elite and well healed.
:: ::
By September a lot of people will have resistance. Those who have lived through the disease.
and PA has the town of "Intercourse" which is the second thing you say after meeting your cousin in W. VA.
Ramp up that fear ...
Swine Flu will getcha ...
All of 200 dead ...
more died on the highway ...
If I were in the auto workers union, I would be pushing to get into the Fed employees retirement system....
And to have my job listed in the GS classifications...
"Bod Dobbs"? You been working out, sugar? ; )
8%, 8%??? You guys aren't thinking big here.
No, but 8% will be high enough to demonstrate that April 29th was not the bottom in housing.
I am so happy I am flying to Austin TX Sunday!!!!!!!!!!
I am going to eat Mex food 24 x 7 for the entire week! I fear nothing!
TBT sure had a nice pop late today...
The FEMA mass grave purchases should come in handy this winter for the flue deaths.
Alex Jones - 500,000 Plastic Coffins
YouTube - Alex Jones - 500,000 Plastic Coffins
I would be leery of going short on treasuries - not going to push against that "Infinite Balance Sheet"... Fed will probably buy however much it takes to keep the rate down at 3%...
SBUX Q2 profit off 77% ... now what was that you were saying about PCE?
"Los Banos" doesn't seem so odd. Bath is a suburb of Akron, and is there anyplace in Europe occupied by the Romans that doesn't have a Bath or Baden? And El Centro seems pretty much equivalent to Centerville OH, Centerville IN, Centralia IL, Central City IL,
I wonder if it's that we don't notice strange names so much when they're in our own language. I can think of any number of ridiculous American place names that would fit in your list:
Intercourse, PA
Bird in Hand, PA
Blue Ball, PA
(if I remember right, those three are all in the same county, as is Paradise)
Oblong, IL
I'll admit I'm having trouble thinking of an equivalent to Manteca, although there was a serious push once for the name Porkopolis instead of Cincinnati.
For city name and street names, try "Los Banos" ("the baths," but colloquially "the bathroom"), or "Manteca" (Lard) or "Avenida de Las Pulgas (Flea Avenue), or "Los Gatos" ("The Cats').
Heh! "Calle de Roada." Yup. "Road Road." We got one. Nearby we also have "Avenida de Los Arboles" rather than "Tree St." +
Alex Jones - 500,000 Plastic Coffins pt2
YouTube - Alex Jones - 500,000 Plastic Coffins pt2
French Lick, IN
Big Bone Lick State Park, KY
Weed, NM
Truth or Consequences, NM (renamed from Mineral Hot Springs as part of a contest sponsored by that game show)
" Tupuli (profile) wrote on Wed, 4/29/2009 - 1:26 pm
Favorite city name "El centro"
"El Centro" in Spanish also means "downtown". It always seemed odd to me to name the whole city "downtown".
Woo hoo! I spent part of my day discussing our Pandemic Flu Plan. We resolved:
I am giddy with joy over the concern my employer has shown!
I'm confused why Raineri even has his words transcribed, let alone repeated or listened to. At the very least he, as a serial failure, has demonstrated a severe lack of understanding for the housing market. I find this quirk of the financial press, to promote the views of those least competent, frankly offensive.
For city name and street names, try "Los Banos" ("the baths," )
In SF it is the "Los Manos Banos"
Yeah, but "Avenida de Los Arboles" rolls off the tongue so nicely... Imagine "Corinthian Leather" on your Avenida.
"Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama plans to announce tomorrow that Chrysler LLC will be placed into Chapter 11 bankruptcy"
Whatever happened to Classified-Top Secret:)
Here's the Wikipedia entry for Lewis Ranieri
Lewis Ranieri is a former bond trader and former vice chairman of Salomon Brothers. He is considered the "godfather" of mortgage finance. [1] In the late 1970s Lewis joined the new mortgage-trading desk of Salomon Brothers where he contributed in creating the innovative practice of securitization, a word he has supposed to have coined. In 2004 Lewis was considered by BusinessWeek one of the greatest innovators of the past 75 years. [2] In March 2008, Nobel Prize laureate in Economics Robert Mundell inserted Lewis among the "Five Goats Who Contributed to the Financial Crisis" of 2008 with President Bill Clinton, Alan Greenspan, former AIG head Hank Greenberg, Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson. [3]
sm_landlord,
Thanks for link. Applying their definitions, it was clearly the case yesterday. There has to be fantastic institutional resistance to advancing the pandemic level.
nova,
Frequent use of bleach wipes on surfaces that get lots of contact will actually go a long way...
El Centro is halfway between the Pacific coast and the Arizona border, at the center of the southern border with Mexico. Hence the name.
Heh! "Calle de Roada." Yup. "Road Road." We got one. Nearby we also have "Avenida de Los Arboles" rather than "Tree St." +
My college wanted to name a building after the guy that gave them most of their endowment...luckily they came up with "Hall Auditorium" instead of Renssalaer Polytechnic's "Hall Hall" (no joke).
We also called our two administration buildings Peters and Cox.
Someone should use the name Innovative Goat in Ranieri's honor...
Heh! "Calle de Roada." Yup. "Road Road." We got one. Nearby we also have "Avenida de Los Arboles" rather than "Tree St." +
I grew up not too far from the Connecticut River. "Connecticut" means "long tidal river", soooo
I grew up not too far from the long, tidal river river.
Wasnt there a character in Catch-22 called Major Major? Over at the VA my doctor's last name is (I swear) Doctor.... So I go see Doctor Doctor... Give me the news...
How about Red Stick--Baton Rouge?
Cat Fünflu
Wonder what this would be in spanish?
Yep, and the Ohio River is the Great River River.
Beer Bottle Crossing, Idaho
Knob Lick, Kentucky
Plus in Minnesota we got both Fertile Minnesota and Climax Minnesota...
Actually he was Major Major, who because of a clerical error became Major Major Major or possibly Major Major Major Major
I understand that there is a place in Great Britain, which has endured more changes of language then us
which means hillhillhill Hill
Mianus, Connecticut
Yalt (profile) wrote on Wed, 4/29/2009 - 1:55 pm reply Ignore user
Heh! "Calle de Roada." Yup. "Road Road." We got one. Nearby we also have "Avenida de Los Arboles" rather than "Tree St." +
My college wanted to name a building after the guy that gave them most of their endowment...luckily they came up with "Hall Auditorium" instead of Renssalaer Polytechnic's "Hall Hall" (no joke).
We also called our two administration buildings Peters and Cox.
RPI was a second choice of mine. [WPI, ducks. Dad was RIT. Worked with a few RPIs in composites structures.] Seriously, great school but you didn't have Goddard blow up your Chem building. Nothing beats the naming history of the "Harvard Bridge."
Rebecca Diamond on FBN says it is 'Raining Bulls'.... I think she left off the 'hit'.... Oh well if you have to tune to a biz channel it helps if the talker looks like her....
"El Centro" in Spanish also means "downtown". It always seemed odd to me to name the whole city "downtown".
Clearly you've never been to El Centro then! LOL !
Our college had so many things named "doe memorial walkway" and "jones memorial bench" that one of my friends played a prank. He got a nice brass plaque engraved with the same kind of font the university used. "Mayer Memorial Urinal" was carefully placed with epoxy. The maintenance staff thought it was real. Stayed up until a remodel ~10 years later.
Prolly Bong Area de Recreation. Pronounced differently of course.
There are 32 towns in W. VA named "Forbidden Love"
As I've mentioned before, I'm on a crusade to link the words "sham" and "financial" in our society.
The latest google results for the words "sham" and "financial" show 2,200,000 results. It's gone parabolic!
I'd like to take credit for this rapidly growing association, but it's only fair to give "credit" where "credit" is "due" - WALL STREET.
Robert Goddard the father of modern rocketry.
@Avl Dao: "Wisdom, did u see my comment yesterday regarding your referencing my comment posted @ The Big Picture regarding cognitive dissonance and (Pandemic Flu) crises?"
Yes... the mea culpa can be found a few threads later when I got back online after doing the evening/family routine. (Next time you might look for it before asking for it?
)
OT: DNDN today: 22.94 +11.13 (94.24%)
Pity that these geniuses who executed to perfection will not be widely known.
Harvard Bridge - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Really worth reading! Also Mianus is mentioned too...
RPI was a second choice of mine. [WPI, ducks. Dad was RIT. Worked with a few RPIs in composites structures.] Seriously, great school but you didn't have Goddard blow up your Chem building. Nothing beats the naming history of the "Harvard Bridge."
No, Dawg, I didn't go to RPI, I went to Oberlin. They had "Hall Hall", we had "Hall Aud.".
Had a good friend at RIT, but I decided early on that I didn't want to go to a technical school. Needed to get away from the scientists at the end of the day.
"Frequent use of bleach wipes on surfaces that get lots of contact will actually go a long way..."
I would suggest bathing in pure hydrogen peroxide. You'll never have to worry about swan flu again. Swans are such dirty animals.
MSM seems to be engineering good news. To me that implies they're losing eyeballs with doom headlines, which implies people are just sick of reading about doom, even if it's true. That may be why the market seems so disconnected from reality-- people have had about as much reality as they can stand, they want ponies and ice cream and cheerful fluffy bunnies. So if there are no really big disasters in the next few months, what's to stop a continuation of the fluffy bunny rally, even though there's nothing real to support it?
JP (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 4/29/2009 - 1:57 pm reply Ignore user
Heh! "Calle de Roada." Yup. "Road Road." We got one. Nearby we also have "Avenida de Los Arboles" rather than "Tree St." +
I grew up not too far from the Connecticut River. "Connecticut" means "long tidal river", soooo
I grew up not too far from the long, tidal river river.
Seems like old home week here on CR. I grew up (alright, got chronologically older) In the Agawam Indian lands just north in Massachusetts.
RPI was a second choice of mine. [WPI, ducks. Dad was RIT. Worked with a few RPIs in composites structures.] Seriously, great school but you didn't have Goddard blow up your Chem building. Nothing beats the naming history of the "Harvard Bridge."
I was just out there over the weekend at a family event - my daughter went to RPI, drove through W Mass on Sunday...
Believe it or not my daughter chose RPI over Cal Poly - SLO where she was also admitted. She visited both and STILL chose RPI... she said SLO was the kind of place a person retires to... Troy NY is the kind of place that pushes you to want to work real hard to be able to retire somewhere else... she is now starting PT school [doctoral program] at U of MN in the middle of the Twin Cities... another good place to 'be from' - I know, my alma mater.
Prolly Bong Area de Recreation. Pronounced differently of course.
How could I forget...Wisconsin of course has the...
http://carcino.gen.nz/images/index.php/5922d576/5a724fb6
I find this quirk of the financial press, to promote the views of those least competent, frankly offensive.
The propaganda these days is out of hand. The MSM is a total joke. Where are the main stream stories about the utter incompetence at the fed?
The MSM is a sham.
Scone - Beware of costume musicals coming out of Hollywood... ala 1930's....
Hialeah means prairie in the local native language. Not one bit of prairie left.
Hmmm, don't know what Miami means.
Baltimore was named after Lord Baltimore.
OT: DNDN today: 22.94 +11.13 (94.24%)
Pity that these geniuses who executed to perfection will not be widely known.
Note to self: never, EVER use a stop.
I wonder if Yahoo! will give up the identity of the guy that called the time of the raid to within five minutes?
Laser Chrysler.
Chrysler Will File for Bankruptcy, Official Says (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
'clean coal' a great oxymoron.. check out this Visualizing The U.S. Electric Grid : NPR
Look at each state sources of power to figure out who are the big users of coal. Illinois weighs in at 48% ( above avg ) but some states dependencies are enormous
Glad I live WA State which rules with 71% of electric power generated from hydro ( 2nd to Idaho @ 79% )
" The MSM is a total joke"
Shame on you, Angry Saver.
it's vitally important that we only read and reference "credible sources".
bloomberg says,"U.S. Stocks Advance as Most S&P 500 Companies Beat Estimates"
U.S. Stocks Advance as S&P 500 Index Erases Decline for Year - Bloomberg.com
i say this:
s&p 500 pe ratio 120.
BullandBearWise.com - S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio
low estimates matter for shit. it is how companies compare to their past earnings that matters
I never got the idea of a stop. I mean, if you think it's gonna go down, why not sell now, while it's still higher?
LL what does San Diego mean? LOL!
this is really OT (hey, at least I worked under Sweet Lou when he was was vice-chairman at Salomon, umm... wait, on second thought when he
was playing 1st base for the yankees,,,)
but more importantly I'm I in violation of the McConnell Act at this very moment because I'm eating ramen noodles in a cup from North Korea (cheap but not too tasty, has a distinct aftertaste of polonium 210) and drinking beer from Myanmar (not to bad...)?
" what's to stop a continuation of the fluffy bunny rally, even though there's nothing real to support it?"
~~~
a couple of million layoffs
in 3 months
while the spring fever
runs dry ...
I never got the idea of a stop. I mean, if you think it's gonna go down, why not sell now, while it's still higher?
It's not that you think it's going to go down, it's that you don't want to come back from vacation and find out it did while you weren't watching and you're stuck with a huge loss.
Believe it or not my daughter chose RPI over Cal Poly - SLO where she was also admitted. She visited both and STILL chose RPI... she said SLO was the kind of place a person retires to... Troy NY is the kind of place that pushes you to want to work real hard to be able to retire somewhere else... she is now starting PT school [doctoral program] at U of MN in the middle of the Twin Cities... another good place to 'be from' - I know, my alma mater.
I believe it. I'd have encouraged my daughter to do the same. Mine took UCLA over both but RPI would have been one of my short list East Coast suggestions. Ms. Little Dawg is a botanist in training. Mrs. Dawg is a regional director RPT and Masters Health Care Admin so I can assure you your kid is on a solid track. When she looks SoCal be sure to contact me. Mrs. Dawg is running ragged filling for adequate staffing.
The U.S. economy is “leveling off at a low level” and doesn’t need a second fiscal stimulus package, said Paul Volcker = "We have reached Terminal Velocity"
plus the Cambodian honey I'm with has enhancements that may be banned under certain international armaments conventions...
Plot up of the laboratory confirmed cases by date and country...hope the sarky wags are right - we'll know soon enough - Bennie and the Jets can't buy a Sunday night sticksave in this arena.
energyecon
According to Wiki, Saint Didacus.
Wonder what his claim to fame was?
never mind, don't tell me.
it's vitally important that we only read and reference "credible sources".
Not just "credible sources" but credible sources of commmon wisdom.
Edward Bernays (the father of modern propaganda) called it "manufacturing consent"
Is it really CONsent if it is manufactured?
@ Wisdom, u might work a bit on ur people skills.
Telling me to 'look for your mea culpa' pretty much puts an odor not only on ur mea culpa, but also now makes me feel like I should not have been concerend that Lucifer & Co. attacked you online rather than simply your position.
It would have been better for you to simply repeat ur mea culpa and 'keep mouth closed'.
Hmmm,.
In this age of specialists it's not hard to believe that life can be segregated into compartments. Investments are isolated phenomena.
Read this and consider:
BBC NEWS | Americas | WHO fears pandemic is 'imminent'
"The U.S. economy is “leveling off at a low level” and doesn’t need a second fiscal stimulus package, said Paul Volcker "
~~~~
Paul who?
LOL! its a stupid reference to Ron Burgandy from some move with Will Ferrell. The name escapes me!
Reaching Terminal Velocity is good. I mean you're not gonna fall faster right.
(only if you are a flying squirrel!)
I get a kick out of the happy jovial commentators on CNN day time. Jut think happy thoughts.
What happens when you pull the economy's emergency chute and nothing happens?
Terminal Velocity happens...
“leveling off at a low level”
~~~~
as did
the 9/11 office workers ...
as did
the towers ...
This guy hasn't heard about the panic or pandemic that the world now faces where commerce will come to a screaching halt.
The thing is, the 'mortgage pig era' went on for years, ignoring reality pretty thoroughly. People like Tanta warned that the system was bullshit, but they were mostly ignored, because it was convenient to do so. I see no reason to think that sort of behavior has changed, in fact, the Matrix seems to be reasserting itself once again. So, we could have a fluffy market until next year, with continued 'numbers engineering,' until the recession is sort of papered over and declared dead. And the can gets kicked down the road for another year.
I'm not saying this is a good thing, but I can see how the PTB could make it happen, for a while, since the markets are already corrupted. I certainly wouldn't care to try shorting, etc. under such circumstances.
Lewis keeps his job. All the members of the BoA board were retained as well.
Just reward for a job well done, huh?
I think it is a version of San Tiego or San Tiago, varants in Spanish dialects that translate as St. James in English. Santiago de Compostela in NW Spain was a pilgrimage site back when the major cities sacred to Christendom (as well as Judaism and Islam) were inaccessible to pilgrims. It is a lovely place with a great festival for the saint's day in late July (23rd?)
Angry Saver
Motivation is irrelevant. Stupid people may be used as puppets or tools, but they are open to be exploited by all comers. Planned or accidental, malicious or benevolent
I find Raineri's words being disseminated as offensive in the same way as I would any other unnecessary loud distracting noise. It has nothing to do with misleading, it is just purely offensive to my senses.
Arbitrage_Macht_Frei (profile) wrote on Wed, 4/29/2009 - 2:25 pm reply Ignore user
What happens when you pull the economy's emergency chute and nothing happens?
Terminal Velocity happens...
Wait a short while and find out.
OT I suspect I did a disservice to Cal Poly SLO. It is easy to get a false impression of SLO. "Laid back" on tthe surface they do yeoman's work in fact.
About Raineri:
It's best that all the "experts" waste their predictions often and early, as to more easily discredit them later.
goingsouth
I don't know if the old comments have been migrated over, but at the time I speculated the BoA takeover of Merrill Lynch had more to do with internal BoA corporate politics. Lewis wasn't ready to retire, Thain presented an attractive successor, and so Lewis used him to consolidate and then squelch opposition to his tenure. He had to do a takeover eventually whether at the behest of his board or the Treasury, so he did it on terms that were personally rewarding.
Ok, it may end up horribly, but really, at this point there is no telling.
Even the 1918 event was no big deal compared to the Black Plague.
Nova, I have no idea what to do if it turns out to be a plague type event. Sounds
what your employer is doing is the best that can be expected.
We will see what we will see.
Meantime it seems the gov'ts are acting reasonably appropriately.
EHP,
Sounds about right.
Another shining example of American meritocracy at work.
--
"Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California."
A perfect gathering place for America's crooks.
Jas
"This guy hasn't heard about the panic or pandemic that the world now faces where commerce will come to a screaching halt."
~~~
screeching halt
commerce has already ..
no border closure ...
just excuses ...
fear is the game ...
to cover economic ...
the rightful blame ...
Stock Mkt == Potemkin Village.
I'm only peeking at it occasionally. Not worth the effort.
Regarding Lewis and the BAC board keeping their jobs:
The fix was in. A new team might have blown the whistle on all the past shams within BAC. Due to BAC's size, this would have laid bare the shams at all the other large financial institutions. No way could the system allow that to happen.
That's how I see it.
Calle Sine Nombre Numero Uno -- Street with no name, number one. Gilroy, CA.
Anyone know something more about Arthur Levitt. He has been far too noticeable to just be quietly retired as a consultant. I would guess he has some public ambition. I don't think it is a noble pursuit in old age, he has used his voice to deliver isolated recriminations in the way of a politician and there is no over-arching pursuit of good. He's trying to protect more than solve problems. I'm guessing he is trying to set himself up to chair a committee whose mission it will be to reform Wall St and perhaps architect the vaguely mentioned unified regulator. Such a position will be extremely personally lucrative
"Lewis keeps his job. All the members of the BoA board were retained as well."
~~~
Real Swine Flu ...
Wall Street Swine ...
In the mud together ...
"OT I suspect I did a disservice to Cal Poly SLO"
It's not a bad place, I was surprised by your comment. I lived there for two years, Cal Poly was one of our clients.
It's not a bad place [SLO], I was surprised by your comment.
I misspoke, gave the wrong impression and retract.
“We’re within shouting distance of a bottom.”
Ummm... yes. The Titanic eventually reached the bottom, too. And it has stayed there for a long time.
@energyecon - Keep it up; you and I are on the same page with the flu thing. I had some comments for you last night, looks like you missed them. I'll grab the URL in a second...
Another good map is here: BBC NEWS | Americas | Swine flu: mapping the outbreak
Apropos of your chart of the numbers, some of the ramping up is probably institutional "catch-up", but it's pretty clear that the number of infections is growing fast enough to double in 4 days or less. I'm starting to wonder whether the pandemic could reach full bloom by the end of May or early June?
Well,The median price in lovely Oakland Ca is down 65% YoY according to Dataquick.Thankfully I live in a Fortress area.If you bought with 20% down a year ago in sebastopol you still have equity! WE only dropped 19.1%!.OH,WAIT.
Scone I think you are right about the fluffy bunnies - Americans have no stiff upper anything to deal with a long crisis -- the Japanese did.
I wonder just what will happen when you mix an L-shaped recession with one of the most impatient, materialistic, short-sighted populations on the planet.
@energyecon: my comments from the overnight thread last night (Page not found | Hoocoodanode?
@energyecon and a few others: I see we're thinking alike. The mortality rate will continue to evolve with the virus. I wonder if it's possible that there's been a slight shift in the Mexican virus which doesn't show up on the lab checks, but which has dramatically boosted the lethality for a subset of the cases?
Looking at the rate of spreading / exponential growth - if we assume a single index case back in late February and a minimum of 10,000 cases in Mexico alone now, then that's at least 13 doubling periods in 60-70 days, or about 4 days per doubling. (I think 10,000 is way low, but one can adjust for whatever it takes to yield 2000 "officially counted" hospitalizations in a nation whose response has clearly been less than optimal. I am noting anecdotal evidence that ambulances and hospitals are refusing care now, which suggests a more dire scenario...)
A doubling time of 4 days gives a 2^10 increase in cases (factor of 1024) in 40 days... That would mean adding three zeros every 40 days or so... if that were to continue worldwide, we'll be done before the end of June... 10,000 cases now, 10,000,000 by end of May, and perhaps billions in June. Given that, I now worry that the 18 month scenario (e.g. from 1918-1919) may play out in less time, this time around, because people move much faster by airplane and auto than they used to by ship and train, and they interact more.
The other wildcard I see is that with early summer weather (in the Northern Hemisphere at least) perhaps the virus will find it tougher to survive. On the other hand, Mexico is further along with spring than nearly all the rest of the Northern Hemisphere (weighted by population), so this doesn't seem like a functional argument.
One tricky decision we may all need to make, is when and whether to self-quarantine. I think the numbers are too uncertain to do that calculation of risk just yet. On the other hand, there are known cases just a couple of counties away now... Yikes!
OT from the last thread, but:
I fail to understand the end-of-the-world scenario being created by the Fed's recent expansion of its balance sheet. Here is my logic: If the fed buys $1.2T in agency MBS at 4% today and prints money to do it, the money they print to buy the MBS gets into "circulation" via the banks that sell the MBS during a deflationary episode. Right? To do this they have to pay really high prices for the MBS relative to the notional value of the assets that underpin them.
Fast forward 5 years (hypothtetically). The economy is improving and the Fed is ready to soak up the liquidity they injected during the crisis, so they prepare to sell the MBS on their balance sheet back to the market to soak up the cash. But, ALAS, the market demands 8% for their paper. An 8% yield requires the Fed to take a 50% (check my math) loss on their securities in order to entice buyers. 50% of $1.2T is $600 billion. That means, $600 billion is left in circulation. Doesn't that have a stimulative (inflationary effect) similar to the Bush tax rebate stimulus packages? The loss has to be funded through the Treasury using debt or taxation - just like the tax rebates.
Hardly seems end of the world to me, at least while ignoring the cumulative effects of infinitie, incremental government spending. Where is my simple-mindedness leading me astray? Please educate.
I have to go to an event tonight, but will be back online later tonight to read comments.
Thanks,
RR
It's not a bad place [SLO], I was surprised by your comment.
I misspoke, gave the wrong impression and retract.
Cal Poly is a great school & SLO is outstanding - I'd move in a heartbeat if I could find work & afford a shack there...
And while Cal Poly is a very good school my daughter just got better vibes from RPI. When visiting Cal Poly a lot of the students she talked to said 'Don't come here - we don't want you - we are too crowded already - you won't like it'... at RPI it was 'Ya Troy is a slum and upstate winters suck but you are welcome here to enjoy it all with us' and she did.
Plus the 'street culture' was something else... first night she was there they went to one of those street vendor pizza joints in the old seedy part of Troy about 2 AM... a big limo pulls up with smoked glass windows - can't see in... a window rolls down part way and a voice calls out... 'Yo - Tony, a couple pepperoni'... A guy from the shop runs out and hands the unseen occupants a couple of slices - no money exchanges hands - and the car drives off. My daughter said it could have been a scene from the 'Godfather' or 'Sopranos'. My reply was 'Or somebody from state gov't... Albany is just across the river' [Spitzer was AG then if I recall]...
I am an appraiser and ALL I SEE ......AHEAD...... IS PAIN. I can show you inventory that will take 2 years to absorb and there are SO many REO's banks are still holding that have NOT hit the market......with MORE to come. PAIN I tell ya' ....just more damn PAIN.
PAIN
Money Man,
Appreciate your report from the front. Is that the Western Front or the Eastern Front? (Any hints about the region in which you see the gobs of REO inventory coming)
They will be assaulted on ALL fronts.....They are coming in now from real housing issues like job loss and you still have the usual upside down homeowner (who put ZERO down) that says fuck it...and hands the keys back to the bank. Who loses...the guy with a credit ding for 7 years or the bank who has to take a $200,000 loss....you tell me who is the looser. Appraisers are being forced to eat shit sandwiches by the crooks that made the friggin' loans in the first place. Just because mortgage brokers made the deal did NOT mean the lenders HAD TO FUND THEM. Lets put some perspective on where the money came from and you will see where it all originated....OK I'm done with my rant.