OFHEO is really garbage because they only look at conforming loans, introducing serious bias. By not counting jumbo or sub-prime, they only muddy the waters. Kind of like Microsoft's "Fear Uncertainty and Doubt" (FUD) strategy against open source.
Still useful though for bulls to pump the market using your tax dollars.
Nemo, without getting too detailed, much of the discrepancy comes from how you frame the question. Here are some overlapping price approaches:
Cost of purchasing right now in a particular place, versus an essentially identical home at previous points in time. This emphasizes the pure price differential, and not anything about how housing stock might be changing (e.g., homes getting bigger). This is useful for calculations of returns on housing investment, and often for analysis of mortgage defaults.
The average/median cost of homes being purchased right now. This has all kinds of problems with the mix changing over time. It is good for estimating how much real estate agents, title companies and others who feed off of transaction volume are making.
Index subject to conforming limits. If you are fannie/freddie and those are the loans you make, it's a reasonable index. Jumbos are obviously excluded, which leads to both geographic and tier problems.
Unlimited indexes like CS. This tells you the most about the overall market, and they give you tiers too.
Sadly Schiller has ossified. He knows the CS 1890-2009 metric is invalid yet he persists. In 1890 the median house had no indoor plumbing or insulation yet he says the median 2009 house with all that and more is worth more in order to justify his his premise,
Everybody who has died from 9mm, get back up. You're not really dead - you were shot with an ineffective round.
Go with a 10 or 357
10mm, sadly, is niche ammo. Few(er) guns or choices in ammo (though the current ammo drought may have changed that by sucking up all the 9mm on the market). Loaded right, it is a tough round at both ends of the transaction. I'll admit I've been tempted.
357 is for revolvers, which, for me, are much harder to shoot accurately in double-action and too hair-trigger in single action. And I'll take 15-19 rounds of 9mm over 6 rounds of 357, thank you very much.
But, yes they do both carry more juice than a 9mm.
There are a lot of people who believe that a reform jewish rabbi born to a virgin was the son of god. Some others believe that a guy who robbed and pilaged + married an 8 year old was the last prophet.
Compared to that, housing actually sounds less ridiculous.
//Never again will Californians make this mistake.//
It's not quite that simple. Each pair of sales in the CS index is for the same house. Over time, the mix of what has sold twice changes. Thus, very slowly homes without indoor plumbing were replaced with those having running water. The same type of thing occurs with new construction getting bigger.
He also quoted from an article in the LA Times which was published during the aftermath of the collapse in 1886:
<b>We Californians have learned something. And that is that home prices can’t just go up forever—they have to be supported by something. Never again will Californians make this mistake.</b></cite>
Major props to whichever of Shiller's grad students that found the quote.
JP, the CS series starts in Jan 1987. To make a somewhat similar index going back much further, Shiller used some other data sources. The full dataset and explanation are in an excel file at Irrational Exuberance
Either I'm first, or by now all of you have been found deserving of being tagged by "Ignore User". (Sorry I had to do it to you, CR, but that box around your posts was just a bit too pompous!)
For once, let me be the bearer of good news.. this is a very good development for anyone who has a bad autoimmune disease.. not just MS
Novartis Drug Heralds Multiple Sclerosis Advances
By Rob Waters
April 27 (Bloomberg) -- The first in a new wave of multiple sclerosis medicines, from drugmakers led by Novartis AG and Merck KGaA, may reach the market next year, making therapy more convenient for patients and boosting profits.
In Seattle this week, the drugmakers will present results from human trials of two oral drugs. If the products win U.S. approval, patients for the first time will be able to take pills, rather than shots or transfusions, to slow the nerve- damaging condition. Five more pills and two infusion therapies may join the $7.5 billion a year MS market by 2014, according to the National Multiple Sclerosis Society in New York.
...The experimental Novartis drug FTY720 disrupts the movement of immune cells at an earlier stage than Tysabri, keeping them from leaving lymph nodes and entering the bloodstream, according to Richert.
German Merck is attempting to turn a cancer drug, cladribine, into an MS medicine because it suppresses the immune system, blunting its attack on nerve cells. The product was approved to treat leukemia more than a decade ago.....
Thanx, Ken.......
The Mrs. already ignores me, now everyone else can too. What's a grumpy old white guy supposed to do?
BTW, the 9mm is able to be wielded by everyone in the family quite effectively - and the 2-semi-auto shotguns get people moving quite well out to the front gate.
Ha Ha. You must be replying to someone quoting me, someone I have on ignore. But you'll never see this, because if you didn't have me on ignore you wouldn't have had to ask the question.
Avodart, Prostate Drug, Found to Reduce Cancer Risk
By REUTERS
Published: April 27, 2009
Avodart, a drug from GlaxoSmithKline, reduces the risk of prostate cancer, results of a large clinical study showed on Monday.
The study found that Avodart, known generically as dutasteride, significantly reduced the risk of all biopsy-detectable prostate cancer by 23 percent over four years, compared against those who took a placebo, in more than 8,100 men ages 50 to 75.
The trial looked at men who were at increased risk for prostate cancer because they had raised levels of prostate-specific antigen.
The study found no statistically significant difference in the incidence of high-grade tumors, which had been a problem seen in an earlier trial with a rival drug, Proscar, made by Merck.
Avodart, which had sales of £399 million ($584 million) in 2008, is currently approved to treat benign prostate enlargement.
Some investor guy - yes, that paper explains the difference, but in particular he was talking about the difference in the past two months, where FHFA was showing price increases (m-o-m), while CS was showing declines.
First, I don't doubt the FHFA data is manipulated. The FHFA has been putting the pressure on Fannie and Freddie hard to play ball and re-inflate the housing market (one of the reasons the poor CFO offed himself, he knew it would cost Freddie big time). I would not put it past Lockhart at all to fudge those numbers, especially if Geithner and/or Bernanke asked him to. he is an old Navy guy, and will do what he is told, without complaint (notice that, even though he is a life-long Repub, and personal friend of GWB, there has been on mention of him being replaced).
Beyond the suspicious numbers, the FHFA index is fundamentally flawed, since it only captures Fannie/Freddie paired transactions. Which loans do you think are most likely to be on homes that have fallen in value? Maybe Alt A, subprime, Option ARMs, and Jumbos? Well, the Fannie/Freddie data won't have the last transaction for each of those, so all those properties get left out. Only GSE-to-GSE transactions get recorded.
CS takes data from title recordings, so captures more of the market.
Merck touts positive hep C data
April 24, 2009 — 11:10am ET | By John Carroll
There's been plenty of new data on hepatitis C drugs coming from the 44th Annual European Association for the Study of the Liver meeting in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Yesterday, Schering-Plough came up with intriguing positive data on boceprevir. Today, Merck is releasing data on MK-7009. In a Phase IIa trial, 69 percent to 82 percent of patients taking standard therapies combined with the experimental therapy saw their viral loads drop to undetectable levels in 28 days. Ninety-five treatment naive chronic HCV patients were randomized across five treatment arms with regimens of MK-7009 300 mg or 600 mg twice daily, MK-7009 600 mg or 800 mg once daily, or placebo, for 28 days.
NEW YORK, April 25 (Reuters) - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc's experimental hepatitis C drug, telaprevir, proved significantly better than standard therapy in knocking out the virus in patients for whom prior treatments failed, according to results of a clinical study.The notoriously difficult to treat patients fared far better when telaprevir was added to their therapy for both those who received the Vertex drug for 12 weeks and those in a 24-week treatment group, researchers said.
The sustained viral response (SVR) rate was 51 percent in the 12-week telaprevir group and 52 percent on the 24-week telaprevir regimen, compared with a 14 percent SVR rate in patients who received a 48-week course of ribavirin and pegylated-interferon -- the current standard of care.
April 27, 2009 (Copenhagen, Denmark) — Boceprevir, an investigational oral hepatitis C virus (HCV) protease inhibitor, in combination with peginterferon alfa-2b and ribavirin, significantly increases the sustained viral response (SVR) rate in patients with HCV genotype 1, according to a study presented here at the European Association for the Study of the Liver 44th Annual Meeting.
The findings are the final results of the phase 2 HCV Serine Protease Inhibitor Therapy (SPRINT)-1 study, which evaluated boceprevir (800 mg 3 times a day) in 3 treatment regimens: 4 weeks of peginterferon alfa-2b (1.5 μg/kg once weekly) plus ribavirin (800 to 1400 mg daily by weight) followed by the addition of boceprevir (800 mg 3 times a day) for either 24 weeks or 44 weeks; boceprevir in combination with peginterferon alfa-2b plus ribavirin at the doses above for either 28 or 48 weeks (triple-combination therapy); and peginterferon alfa-2b plus low-dose ribavirin (400 to1000 mg/day) and boceprevir for 48 weeks.
Have to disagree with your opinion on homeownership levels (stated in an earlier post), especially as it relates to the elderly.
Your chart quite clearly shows an artificial and bubblish move skyward in '95 from the 64% range. We're going back there for sure, because all the factors that propelled us skyward are now working in reverse, especially with regards to the elderly.
Seniors stopped selling because they were not under the usual pressure to sell, given fatter pensions and richer retirement funds from the bullish economy and stock market of the late 90's. Even when dot-com turned dot-bomb, equity on their homes was growing so fast that it was a no-brainer to stay put and further feather their retirements. No so now. Given ever worsening finances, disappearing benefits and increasing costs for food, energy and healthcare, seniors are going to be selling their homes like crazy just to salvage what's left of their retirement. The only ones staying put will be those where all the children and grandchildren move in with them, which brings me to my next point... Increasing household size will show up in lower homeownership levels, too.
Why does this remind me of people paying almost naked models to sell condos?
There's No Place Like (Someone Else's) Home
To Help Sell Houses, Temps Are Moved In; Hanging Baby Photos
By ELIZABETH WILLIAMSON
APRIL 25, 2009
OCEANSIDE, Calif. -- The fragrance of sage-scented candles and sounds of jazz fill the air of a 2,600-square-foot house a block from the beach. Tiger-striped chairs flank tables crafted from exotic woods. Photos of a chubby baby hang on the walls. Whoever occupies 211 Windward Way, they seem to live the good life.
Too good to be true, in fact. The house is owned by a builder, who hasn't been able to sell it for more than a year. And while someone really does live here, it's as part of an elaborate bit of stagecraft aimed at moving Southern California's echoing inventory of luxury vacant homes.
This $1.2 million seaside pied-a-terre is occupied by Johnna Clavin, a 45-year-old Los Angeles event planner and decorator who has seen business slow. In exchange for giving the townhouse a stylishly lived-in look, she gets to stay there at a steep discount and stands to earn a bonus if the house sells fast.
Expanding on the subject of labor from the previous thread;
The greatest hindreance to the upward mobility of the average American worker has been the ever increasing double digit inflation in the cost of health care. The average American worker is an economic health care slave. It also keeps their wages supressed due to their lack of mobillity.
I think many of my customers have had swine flu for years, just untreated. We give them plastic cups to drink out of. Then we write their names on the cups for next time.
This is nowhere near over. Even if there is a 3rd or 4th half temporary recovery, these guys don't realize how big of a target they are painting on their back. When asked over the past few months how I see the near term playing out, I always point to the disconnect between the financial industry (compensation, stock prices and bailouts) compared to the the real economy. The shill's question about "will you and/or your workers be better off if the banks are bankrupt" is classic. A threat veiled as an insult. The ancient Greeks did us great service with their tragedies. It's disappointing we believe in so many other ancient fictions but not these. These guys are showing that they will believe their own lies after having their bluff called. Perhaps the commentariat wants this tragedy to play out quicker, but their folly will eventually bring them down. It may take us with them or we might live to fight the next battle but the lines have been drawn. As far as the banksters are concerned, legislated indentured servitude is the future for the united states.
Back on topic: "Why does the FHFA (OFHEO) index show house price gains for the last two months, whereas the Case-Shiller is showing prices are still falling."
From the details I posted in the previous thread, residential in Texas is just beginning to nose dive. We're 12 months behind.
Comrade de Chaos, his suggestion is that they're attaching too many strings to the money they're handing out (and it might get worse!). The future of capitalism seems to rank right along with his investors on the list of things he doesn't much care about.
April 27 (Bloomberg) -- A persistent recession and mounting unemployment will leave the U.S. financial system “insolvent,” implying the stress tests performed by regulators weren’t rigorous enough, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economics professor who predicted the financial crisis.
Losses at U.S. banks and broker dealers will swell to $1.8 trillion, almost 100 percent more than the current amount, as the economic slump lasts at least through this year and the jobless rate climbs to 12 percent by 2010, Roubini said today at the CFA Institute’s annual conference in Orlando, Florida.
The losses would exceed the $1.4 trillion in capital that banks currently have, meaning “the system in the aggregate looks insolvent,” Roubini said.
The rate at which the U.S. economy contracts will diminish from the 6 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter to about 2 percent in the last three months of 2009, he said. Still, Roubini estimated the jobless rate will reach 11 percent by the end of this year and keep rising as companies retrench.
Policy makers assumed the rate would reach 10.3 percent in 2010 in the “more adverse” of U.S. regulators’ two scenarios in the stress tests to determine how much capital banks may need over two years.
“The stress tests are not really serious,” he said, predicting even the more adverse outcomes predicted by officials will be overtaken by events.
I WANT TO KNOW:
Where are all the lawyers when we need them?
DICK Cheney, as VP, he is not responsible to FOIA, because he is the fifth branch of govt, neither part of the ADMIN or the SENATE...
THE FED claims that they do not have to comply with the FOIA, because they are a private corporation...somewhat like an independent arm of the USG?
I WANT TO KNOW, how this can take place and no one is calling his bluff or the FED's bluff?
Lally Weymouth of Newsweek and The Post sat down last week with economist Nouriel Roubini. Excerpts:
Q. You are the economist known for predicting the economic downturn in 2008. What do you believe is happening to the economy today?
A. The consensus among economists is that they see the economy that was contracting for the last two quarters at 6 percent going into positive economic growth by the second half of this year. . . . I believe that the rate of economic contraction is going to slow from negative 6 percent in the last two quarters to negative 2 percent by the fourth quarter.
Next year, I believe that the growth rate is going to be low -- 0.5 percent for the U.S., compared to the consensus view of [plus] 2 percent. I believe the unemployment rate this year is going to go well above 10 percent and will be well above 11 percent next year, so even if we are technically out of a recession, we are going to feel like we are in a recession.
The shill was so beat he could only bring up how baseball players make so much money. At least the baseball player's performance is transparent. Barring steroids, of course, he can't hit 50 home runs on paper that disappear on a balance sheet. And the teams don't give the fans back their money even if he's caught with steroids.
The banks should be ashamed that they made big profits in Q1. Instead they gloat.
""The role of government in the United States, one of the great free markets in the world, has become frightening," Griffin said today during a panel discussion at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California."
I haven't seen his whole speech, just a summary. Maybe I did miss something, however I doubt his concern was about strings but rather degree of involvement ....
Roubini via Lucifer:
“The stress tests are not really serious,” he said, predicting even the more adverse outcomes predicted by officials will be overtaken by events.
Geithner: "Your point being?..."
Summers: "But I am dead serious!"
Bernanke: "Shush! You will spook the markets!.."
I just read your link, but here's the next quote: "We cannot fuel constructive policy by pandering to anger," Griffin said at today's conference. "This is a disaster that everyone in our economy participated in creating. I'm not trying to take Wall Street and the banking system off the hook, but we need to find a way to move past this crisis."
The suggestion to me was that he objects not to the support (and implicit picking of winners and losers) but to the backlash resulting in executive compensation limits, the AIG bonus non-law, etc. Seems he likes the money. He just doesn't want any accountability.
The social contract is broken for everybody to see, but the banksters could not give a flying f*ck. The moment of danger has passed and the pay days are back, baby!
Being a talented lawyer, Obama can rationalize everything, from torture to wealth transfer from poor to rich.
The saddest thing is that Joe 6Pack is not hurting badly enough to give a damn, either. Baseball and basketball rule!
But that doesn't explain why the lawyers are not all over this issue...Lawyers are wordsmiths...they know this game, the good lawyers should know how to play this game better than anyone else...sophistry...
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 4/27/2009 - 7:23 pm
Google "Sophism".. and the answer will be self evident.
BTW, in MBS land today, BB continued to push the MBS/Treasury spread to unprecedented levels, basically ignoring any Fannie/Freddie counterparty risk, and most prepayment risk. He is now paying 95bps spread over Treasuries for MBS (i.e. the 10 year treasury is at 2.91, the current coupon MBS is at 3.86).
We are basically in no man's land in the MBS market now, the point of no return. Even in a normal market, no outside investor would pay that much for an MBS, given the prepayment risk. As I have said before, BB is going to need to buy the entire MBS market (except for what MSR hedgers buy), so this year will need to add an estimated 1.75T or so.
No question in my mind this move alone will cost the Fed whatever independence it has left.
hbb said: Thatz because Phony Mae & Fraudie Mac are being scammed to overpay
for houses. When it is tax payers footing the bill, why should originators scrutinize
the appraisals?
I thought they recently introduced measures to ensure the independence of appraisals?
I do not think you got my original drift. I was implying that they will never willingly make things reasonable.. as long as they are alive. The French aristocrats had similar ideas..
//Lucifer - Ironically, it applies to all major characters in this drama/vaudeville, not just the banksters//
When it is tax payers footing the bill, why should originators scrutinize
the appraisals?"
Also, don't forget their new "underwater refi" program doesn't even require an appraisal. Yeah, I'll bet those valuation estimates are going to be realistic.
That program, BTW, is literally criminal, in that it ignores the laws on the books regarding what Fannie/Freddie can buy without credit enhancement. Oh, but remember, "we are a nation of laws". yeah, right.
reading replies to lucifer is far superior to reading his original posts, by far. Thanx Ken. The advantage lies in the fact that only one person in ten replies to his posts, while his posts often number ten to one.
Face it folk, this is a journal where some good reportage happens. We gather up in claques and 'talk' amongst ourselves. That we get some pretty good information from our host is or should be quite enough. That we entertain each other is good. Sometimes, rarely, we inform each other. Mostly we just go on and on. Those who take themselves too seriously in this process should think it over, take your time about it too. What makes you any more or less important to the totality of this community? And you don't want to be 'bothered' with scrolling through comments by those who irritate you? Aw, shucks. That's too bad. So check out. Good for you. buh bye!
I'm just happy to be here, where ever here is. And I'm more than satisfied to know that every time I come here, CR gets a little bit of bread from the advertisers. Frankly, I'd click on them more often if they were a bit more feminine and a lot less covered up with textiles. Does that make me a bad person?
I got that much, Lucifer, and added to it my own drift that the taxpayers will gladly continue giving unlimited non-recourse loans to the bankers so long as
(a) the taxpayers are assured the country is not going communist
(b) the taxpayers are promised that one day one of them can become the CEO of Goldman Sachs
April 27 (Bloomberg) -- The spectacle of Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson running roughshod over Kenneth Lewis and his minions at Bank of America Corp. raises a pivotal question for all Americans: Is the U.S. a nation of laws, or a nation of banks?
Let’s start by examining the facts disclosed last week in a letter by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, while taking pains to present the actions of each player in this drama in the fairest possible light.
Both Bernanke and Paulson in mid-December knew Bank of America was obliged by statute to publicly disclose the huge losses Merrill Lynch & Co. had racked up that month. You don’t get to be chairman of the Federal Reserve or, in Paulson’s case, secretary of the Treasury or head of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. without learning this basic tenet of U.S. securities laws. Instead of making sure the public was fully informed of the losses before Bank of America completed its purchase of Merrill on Jan. 1, they did all they could to keep the secret safe.
BTW: if you want to be somewhere that takes itself waaaaaaay too seriously then check out one of the other very popular and highly regarded economic blogs. That place is full of avatars that are more than happy to tell you just how stupid, stupid, stupid you are; the owner deletes posts, and never misses any opportunity to tell you how much he knows and why you're wrong.
So go, find it, you'll most likely fit in. Until you don't. Then you'll be back. Here, where ever here is.
Loan recovery rates keep falling. Loss given default for home equity down from 80% in 2006 to less than 30% today. Prime jumbo from 80-90% down to 60%. These are nationwide numbers for nonagency paper. The losses for CA, FL, NV, must be astonishing. I'll bet the HELOC recovery rates for CA bottom out at under 5%.
Volker, lucifer only repeats widely available news, with his own "editorial", and sometimes regales us with his medical knowledge, which I must admit is interesting, but his worldview is otherwise a complete waste, so far as I am concerned, and you are welcome to it. Michael is a complete joke. Period. And if you can stomach the Mexican hater, more power to you. I won't even go into the anti-semites.
Christine Lagarde, the finance minister of France, on Jon Stewart argues for increased regulation of the financial industry and calmly claims that if the government takes a majority stake in a bank, it must exercise control , including firing of senior management.
And on top of that, she is so much better looking than Geithner and Summers!
Having read the eight (so far) posts of CR today, I'm left wondering what do I pay for this service? This is better than just 'good reportage.' I could not find this information elsewhere with anywhere near the ease of reading these eight posts.
No question in my mind this move alone will cost the Fed whatever independence it has left.
Totally agree.
Ironic, isn't it, that the GSEs will be the ultimate downfall of the Fed. It's one thing to finance a profligate government, but quite another to also feed the black hold that is Fannie & Freddie. Trapped between the proverbial "rock and a hard place", they can't fund them forever but they can't not.
Ultimately, monetizing MBS (and other derivatives) has to be viewed the same as monetizing T's. The end draws ever near.
remember, every action you take is an action you have control over, you decide whether you get angry or just accept them as they are
you decide to have a nice day
you decide to pick up that Louisville slugger and rearrange the asshole's hairline
and (this is the really good part) you are not affected by anyone else
maybe you're projecting, or perhaps reflecting when these episodes happen
one thing for sure, and you should know this (being in the business you're in) all anger/resentment is the result of your fear and until you get a good and full inventory of all your fears and resentments you'll be subject to them and lead a less than fully actualized existence
The is OT, but NYC has funded JumpStart, the rehab program for laid off FIRE folks....the New Yorker sent a reporter to get an inside look...all funded with tax dollars...on the same day the Transit folks announced we had passed the doomsday scenario, and with falling tax revenues and ridership, we are another 500 million plus in the hole, with no funds left to close the gap, and a 30% rise in fares not enough....another gorgeous day in Manhattan.
SPU is an interesting spot for Shiller to speak. UW, a normal university, is a short drive away.
If one were to spend much time in Seattle, one would find Seattle Pacific University's leanings to be quite out of place.
"Because Seattle Pacific University is strongly tied with the Evangelical Christian church, the rules and regulations on drinking are quite strict, however, students seem to find other ways. However, if drinking isn’t really your thing, you’ll do just fine here. There are no fraternities and sororities, so partying is kept to a minimum in general. Seattle Pacific University also offers its students many sports, both varsity and intramural, which are very popular with students. There are also a large number of community service oriented clubs and organizations with which many students are involved.
The dating scene is actually quite vibrant and liberal, despite the school’s general conservative leanings. There are even lots of people with piercings and hair dye... whoa."
"""The men were participants in JumpStart NYC, a free, government-funded program that is training laid-off Wall Streeters for new careers."""
I'm impressed. Someone really did come up with the name JUMPstart for a program to get ex banksters to spread their wings... Me thinks maybe we don't need the -start bit!
" April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Demetris Efstathiou, a hedge-fund trader and a Londoner for two decades, listened last week to Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling outline a plan to raise taxes on high earners. Then he decided to leave Britain.
“There is no reason for me to stay here anymore,” said Efstathiou, a 38-year-old Cypriot who moved to London in 1990. “This tax increase is the last straw. This government is no longer interested in the City.” Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s proposal to boost the tax rate to 50 percent from 40 percent on income above 150,000 pounds ($220,000) pushed headlines about “class warfare” onto the front pages of the capital’s newspapers. It also prompted predictions from business groups that it would undermine the U.K.’s competitiveness and lead to an exodus of financial talent. Brown was portrayed as Vladimir Lenin in a cartoon on Page One of the Daily Telegraph."
The media keep using this word "talent" when referring to banksters...I'd like to know who wrote the style guide for financial reporting.
Bloomberg also has a piece tonight about NYC-area laid off financial workers:
"Roberts never earned millions from Wall Street. In his best years, he made $500,000, which provided scant cushion against prolonged unemployment or career upheaval. His salary is more representative than those of the chief executive officers and hedge fund managers who have been pilloried in congressional hearings".
The tone of the piece is that the reader should feel sadness that this person only made $500k at best.
Then Demetris Efstathiou came down from his coke high, and realized that New York also had just raised taxes, and he might not be welcome in Tennessee or some other tax haven, and China wasn't really an option, nor his home Cyprus, nor...
Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s proposal to boost the tax rate to 50 percent from 40 percent on income above 150,000 pounds ($220,000) pushed headlines about “class warfare” onto the front pages of the capital’s newspapers.
Fifty percent is unlivable? Is everyone leaving in a tax free dreamland or are they just ignorant of history.
I realize the Beatles are old school, but c'mon, I'm still alive and so are two of them.
Let me tell you how it will be . . .
There's one for you, nineteen for me . . .
"Cause I'm the tax man
Yeah, I'm the tax man.
Should five percent appear too small
Be thankful I don't take it all
"Cause I'm the tax man
Yeah, I'm the tax man.
For those of you who missed this in history class, it's on youtube. Search 'Beatles" and "Taxman"
The piece gets worse, I promise. I can't decide if it was written as a sob story for Wall Streeters or as a "rabble-rouser"; i.e. gets the torches and pitchforkers into the streets.
"In his best years, he made $500,000, which provided scant cushion against prolonged unemployment or career upheaval. "
Scant cushion? Gee, and I was just thinking about the huge numbers of back office folks, who never made more than 50k a year, whose jobs were vaporized. What kind of cushion do you guess that have?
But Demetris Estathiou's hedge fund investors had already replaced him, realizing they could lose the same amount of money using Nemo's monkey, at a fraction of the cost.
broward, I've occasionally quoted Nietzsche here and suggested that reading him in 1970-72 had something to do with me retaining a modest amount of sanity throughout the rest of my life, knowing, as I learned early, that he went quite insane:
One of the things he said that stayed with me over the years was:
"The surrest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike rather than those who think differently."
The Dawn (1881)
I can assure you my own children have learned to appreciate opinions that seem to be odds with their own father's. That was not an accident.
sportsfan, that's cool! Your kids contradict you, like all kids contradict their parents, But you, instead of getting upset like other parents at your kids ignoring your leadership, have convinced yourself that they are in fact following your leadership. It doesn't really matter how you get there. As long as the disbelief can be suspended somehow, it works:)
Moving on, I wanted to highlight some really interesting analysis recently performed by realtor and fellow panelist Jim Klinge.
I have been writing for some time about the strange mixed signals being sent by housing inventory and foreclosure activity. Housing inventory is at a level that, superficially, would indicate a fairly healthy market. Yet homes are going into foreclosure at a very rapid pace, a fact that leads one to believe that a lot of must-sell inventory could eventually hit the market.
"White House was updating Air Force-One file photo - while nearby buildings are evacuated out of fear of another 911"
"Oh God, it was mayhem in here, just mayhem". This is a perfect example.......the hub of my concern...........why are there so many of these "brain fades"? Shouldn't there be intelligent thought as to pro/cons before-the-fact?
In the month of March, 4,260 homes received default notices, which are nastygrams informing delinquent borrowers that they are in foreclosure.
This longer-term graph, which is adjusted for San Diego's population growth, shows just how many more mortgage defaults are taking place now than in the 1990s downturn:
Re: The email specifies that the information "only be shared with persons with a need to know" and "shall not be released to the public." It also says that, "Due to the possibility of public concern regarding [Department of Defense] aircraft flying at low levels, coordination with Federal, State and Local law enforcement agencies...has been accomplished."
sportsfan, as you have undoubtedly learned, no one ever learns but the hard way, and it will be no different for your children. If they remember you with love, it will be enough.
April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said the results of U.S. bank stress tests will be released in a way that will be “public confidence- instilling,” and won’t damage any institution.
...“It’s not a pass-fail,” Bair said. “It’s not a solvency test.”
In a quick scan of the by-laws rules and regulations, I see nothing forbidding it. However, how would bonds alter the member nation IMF quotes it currently draws funding through?
"London Bankers Look for Exits After ‘Last Straw’ Tax Increase " -Bloomberg
and how many of these guys are looking for an exit because the UK equivalent of the SEC is looking to visit in the near future? It should be interesting to see how the UK handles this as they seem to be a step ahead of our clown patrol.
CashOnlyHousing - you sure you want to know who's ignoring you? Seriously, I think it's better that this be kept private. The intent is to lower the amount of friction, not increase it, which is what I think that might do.
Tupuli - I could add a header only pretty easily (I in fact modified an existing module that had that behavior). I found it a little cluttering to see these empty comments, and figured people wanted to completely ignore those they clicked on. Still, I understand the desire for the context. I could make it a personal preference. I could also show the comments of ignored users in gray, as I did with CRC.
I have to say that the opinions of many posters here (barfly, volker, hoops) do not matter.. The world they grew up and believed in has passed away.. but people find it hard to let go.. everyone is trying to defibrillate the rotting corpse in their own way... look at at geithner and bernanke.. they are really trying hard.
But it is not coming back.. nor is their plan B or C any good.. But most of these self appointed moral outrage gurus are not willing to accept the fundamental flaw in their thinking... namely, believing in things that were never real.
Many of these self appointed aging guardians believed that they were destined to do A , B or C.. because they were white and old "wise" white guys told them they were correct, all-knowing and special. They expected to live and die in a world where their life was meaningful according to their self-defined milestones and beliefs.
But the universe does not care about your beliefs or desires, it runs on probabilities. As long as you guys were on the right side of that wave, it looked like an endless summer.. now that the wave has moved on.. you are starting to see that you were never special... just lucky... luck runs out.
But your minds will try to use all their defense mechanism to deny this 'new' reality... I just find it amusing to watch.
Really, how hard could it be to measure the price of stuff?
OFHEO is really garbage because they only look at conforming loans, introducing serious bias. By not counting jumbo or sub-prime, they only muddy the waters. Kind of like Microsoft's "Fear Uncertainty and Doubt" (FUD) strategy against open source.
Still useful though for bulls to pump the market using your tax dollars.
Reality be a harsh mistress!
How can we know whether we're first poster with the ignore capability?
reptillian,
does it matter?
Not really. But being first is a small reward.
when the new CS index gets released, CR please to be updating your 'base case vs adverse case' bank scenario graph and see how we're doing
Hide the dates in any article on a real estate bubble and it sounds like the last one. 1880s in CA, 1920s in Miami, etc.
Unless a beautiful women will blow me (for free) everytime I have a first post.. what is the point?
some investor guy,
Grouch Marx is always relevant.
Nemo, without getting too detailed, much of the discrepancy comes from how you frame the question. Here are some overlapping price approaches:
More later
I would have thought Prof Shiller would have read this paper from the OFHEO detailing why they think there are differences. http://www.ofheo.gov/media/research/OFHEOSPCS12008.pdf
Sadly Schiller has ossified. He knows the CS 1890-2009 metric is invalid yet he persists. In 1890 the median house had no indoor plumbing or insulation yet he says the median 2009 house with all that and more is worth more in order to justify his his premise,
This union dope is obviously not as smart, talented, or articulate as this bank spokesman:
[same posted in previous threads]
Video - CNBC.com
9mm is not a good carry weapon.
Everybody who has died from 9mm, get back up. You're not really dead - you were shot with an ineffective round.
Go with a 10 or 357
10mm, sadly, is niche ammo. Few(er) guns or choices in ammo (though the current ammo drought may have changed that by sucking up all the 9mm on the market). Loaded right, it is a tough round at both ends of the transaction. I'll admit I've been tempted.
357 is for revolvers, which, for me, are much harder to shoot accurately in double-action and too hair-trigger in single action. And I'll take 15-19 rounds of 9mm over 6 rounds of 357, thank you very much.
But, yes they do both carry more juice than a 9mm.
There are a lot of people who believe that a reform jewish rabbi born to a virgin was the son of god. Some others believe that a guy who robbed and pilaged + married an 8 year old was the last prophet.
Compared to that, housing actually sounds less ridiculous.
//Never again will Californians make this mistake.//
It's not quite that simple. Each pair of sales in the CS index is for the same house. Over time, the mix of what has sold twice changes. Thus, very slowly homes without indoor plumbing were replaced with those having running water. The same type of thing occurs with new construction getting bigger.
bobn,
I agree.. An effective weapon is one that you can use easily . The rest.. theoretical performance etc are crap.
He also quoted from an article in the LA Times which was published during the aftermath of the collapse in 1886:
<b>We Californians have learned something. And that is that home prices can’t just go up forever—they have to be supported by something. Never again will Californians make this mistake.</b></cite>
Major props to whichever of Shiller's grad students that found the quote.
We will NEVER FORGET [insert whatever you are momentarily upset about here] !!!!!!!!
dafox, for sure ... but February is only the 2nd month since the stress test scenarios started, so it will be hard to see the difference.
I really enjoyed the quote from the 1880s LA housing bubble. That one is famous.
best to all.
He knows the CS 1890-2009 metric
Does CS really go back that far? I thought the series terminates in the 1990s.
I think Glock may have a 13 round .45. But a short-barreled shotgun is best, because you don't have to be a good shot in order to hit something.
But Klownifornia is special!
Obama:
"The days of [...] are over". [Pause]
[Nothing happens]
That's some amazing shit that they can't even figure out how they're getting their numbers.
Groucho : You can have any kind of a home you want. You can even get stucco. Oh, how you can get stucco.
About that 1885 editorial, my guess is that if your forefathers bought property there then, you would be inheriting big bucks.
JP, the CS series starts in Jan 1987. To make a somewhat similar index going back much further, Shiller used some other data sources. The full dataset and explanation are in an excel file at Irrational Exuberance
Either I'm first, or by now all of you have been found deserving of being tagged by "Ignore User". (Sorry I had to do it to you, CR, but that box around your posts was just a bit too pompous!)
Ahhh... so peaceful... (sound of crickets)
LiveLeak.com - AWESOME HAND GUNS
"How can we know whether we're first poster with the ignore capability? "
You have Nemo on ignore?
"How can we know whether we're first poster with the ignore capability? "
Who said that?
I put Mortgage Pig on ignore so he can't infect me.
"How can we know whether we're first poster with the ignore capability? "
More importantly, How can I ignore myself?
@someinvestor guy: Thanks for the info.
For once, let me be the bearer of good news.. this is a very good development for anyone who has a bad autoimmune disease.. not just MS
Novartis Drug Heralds Multiple Sclerosis Advances
By Rob Waters
April 27 (Bloomberg) -- The first in a new wave of multiple sclerosis medicines, from drugmakers led by Novartis AG and Merck KGaA, may reach the market next year, making therapy more convenient for patients and boosting profits.
In Seattle this week, the drugmakers will present results from human trials of two oral drugs. If the products win U.S. approval, patients for the first time will be able to take pills, rather than shots or transfusions, to slow the nerve- damaging condition. Five more pills and two infusion therapies may join the $7.5 billion a year MS market by 2014, according to the National Multiple Sclerosis Society in New York.
...The experimental Novartis drug FTY720 disrupts the movement of immune cells at an earlier stage than Tysabri, keeping them from leaving lymph nodes and entering the bloodstream, according to Richert.
German Merck is attempting to turn a cancer drug, cladribine, into an MS medicine because it suppresses the immune system, blunting its attack on nerve cells. The product was approved to treat leukemia more than a decade ago.....
Thanx, Ken.......
The Mrs. already ignores me, now everyone else can too. What's a grumpy old white guy supposed to do?
BTW, the 9mm is able to be wielded by everyone in the family quite effectively - and the 2-semi-auto shotguns get people moving quite well out to the front gate.
Ha Ha. You must be replying to someone quoting me, someone I have on ignore. But you'll never see this, because if you didn't have me on ignore you wouldn't have had to ask the question.
I am feeling generous..
Avodart, Prostate Drug, Found to Reduce Cancer Risk
By REUTERS
Published: April 27, 2009
Avodart, a drug from GlaxoSmithKline, reduces the risk of prostate cancer, results of a large clinical study showed on Monday.
The study found that Avodart, known generically as dutasteride, significantly reduced the risk of all biopsy-detectable prostate cancer by 23 percent over four years, compared against those who took a placebo, in more than 8,100 men ages 50 to 75.
The trial looked at men who were at increased risk for prostate cancer because they had raised levels of prostate-specific antigen.
The study found no statistically significant difference in the incidence of high-grade tumors, which had been a problem seen in an earlier trial with a rival drug, Proscar, made by Merck.
Avodart, which had sales of £399 million ($584 million) in 2008, is currently approved to treat benign prostate enlargement.
But you'll never see this, because if you didn't have me on ignore you wouldn't have had to ask the question.
It was my attempt at a joke.
Tim has been doing a great job at Seattle Bubble. Good to see him get some props.
Some investor guy - yes, that paper explains the difference, but in particular he was talking about the difference in the past two months, where FHFA was showing price increases (m-o-m), while CS was showing declines.
First, I don't doubt the FHFA data is manipulated. The FHFA has been putting the pressure on Fannie and Freddie hard to play ball and re-inflate the housing market (one of the reasons the poor CFO offed himself, he knew it would cost Freddie big time). I would not put it past Lockhart at all to fudge those numbers, especially if Geithner and/or Bernanke asked him to. he is an old Navy guy, and will do what he is told, without complaint (notice that, even though he is a life-long Repub, and personal friend of GWB, there has been on mention of him being replaced).
Beyond the suspicious numbers, the FHFA index is fundamentally flawed, since it only captures Fannie/Freddie paired transactions. Which loans do you think are most likely to be on homes that have fallen in value? Maybe Alt A, subprime, Option ARMs, and Jumbos? Well, the Fannie/Freddie data won't have the last transaction for each of those, so all those properties get left out. Only GSE-to-GSE transactions get recorded.
CS takes data from title recordings, so captures more of the market.
Not Found - Joost
-scroll down to Julie Henderson, click, and leave it.
"even OFHEO has said they don't know why or can't explain their own numbers from the last two months"
Or, WON'T explain their numbers from the last two months.
Why not.. I am in a good mood
Merck touts positive hep C data
April 24, 2009 — 11:10am ET | By John Carroll
There's been plenty of new data on hepatitis C drugs coming from the 44th Annual European Association for the Study of the Liver meeting in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Yesterday, Schering-Plough came up with intriguing positive data on boceprevir. Today, Merck is releasing data on MK-7009. In a Phase IIa trial, 69 percent to 82 percent of patients taking standard therapies combined with the experimental therapy saw their viral loads drop to undetectable levels in 28 days. Ninety-five treatment naive chronic HCV patients were randomized across five treatment arms with regimens of MK-7009 300 mg or 600 mg twice daily, MK-7009 600 mg or 800 mg once daily, or placebo, for 28 days.
NEW YORK, April 25 (Reuters) - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc's experimental hepatitis C drug, telaprevir, proved significantly better than standard therapy in knocking out the virus in patients for whom prior treatments failed, according to results of a clinical study.The notoriously difficult to treat patients fared far better when telaprevir was added to their therapy for both those who received the Vertex drug for 12 weeks and those in a 24-week treatment group, researchers said.
The sustained viral response (SVR) rate was 51 percent in the 12-week telaprevir group and 52 percent on the 24-week telaprevir regimen, compared with a 14 percent SVR rate in patients who received a 48-week course of ribavirin and pegylated-interferon -- the current standard of care.
April 27, 2009 (Copenhagen, Denmark) — Boceprevir, an investigational oral hepatitis C virus (HCV) protease inhibitor, in combination with peginterferon alfa-2b and ribavirin, significantly increases the sustained viral response (SVR) rate in patients with HCV genotype 1, according to a study presented here at the European Association for the Study of the Liver 44th Annual Meeting.
The findings are the final results of the phase 2 HCV Serine Protease Inhibitor Therapy (SPRINT)-1 study, which evaluated boceprevir (800 mg 3 times a day) in 3 treatment regimens: 4 weeks of peginterferon alfa-2b (1.5 μg/kg once weekly) plus ribavirin (800 to 1400 mg daily by weight) followed by the addition of boceprevir (800 mg 3 times a day) for either 24 weeks or 44 weeks; boceprevir in combination with peginterferon alfa-2b plus ribavirin at the doses above for either 28 or 48 weeks (triple-combination therapy); and peginterferon alfa-2b plus low-dose ribavirin (400 to1000 mg/day) and boceprevir for 48 weeks.
CR,
Have to disagree with your opinion on homeownership levels (stated in an earlier post), especially as it relates to the elderly.
Your chart quite clearly shows an artificial and bubblish move skyward in '95 from the 64% range. We're going back there for sure, because all the factors that propelled us skyward are now working in reverse, especially with regards to the elderly.
Seniors stopped selling because they were not under the usual pressure to sell, given fatter pensions and richer retirement funds from the bullish economy and stock market of the late 90's. Even when dot-com turned dot-bomb, equity on their homes was growing so fast that it was a no-brainer to stay put and further feather their retirements. No so now. Given ever worsening finances, disappearing benefits and increasing costs for food, energy and healthcare, seniors are going to be selling their homes like crazy just to salvage what's left of their retirement. The only ones staying put will be those where all the children and grandchildren move in with them, which brings me to my next point... Increasing household size will show up in lower homeownership levels, too.
Government's Role In Financial Crisis Scaring The Beejesus Out Of Ken Griffin - Dealbreaker - A Wall Street Tabloid - Business News Headlines and Financial Gossip
if a shark of capitalism says the government is going too far... it must be deep, too deep for comfort.
Why does this remind me of people paying almost naked models to sell condos?
There's No Place Like (Someone Else's) Home
To Help Sell Houses, Temps Are Moved In; Hanging Baby Photos
By ELIZABETH WILLIAMSON
APRIL 25, 2009
OCEANSIDE, Calif. -- The fragrance of sage-scented candles and sounds of jazz fill the air of a 2,600-square-foot house a block from the beach. Tiger-striped chairs flank tables crafted from exotic woods. Photos of a chubby baby hang on the walls. Whoever occupies 211 Windward Way, they seem to live the good life.
Too good to be true, in fact. The house is owned by a builder, who hasn't been able to sell it for more than a year. And while someone really does live here, it's as part of an elaborate bit of stagecraft aimed at moving Southern California's echoing inventory of luxury vacant homes.
This $1.2 million seaside pied-a-terre is occupied by Johnna Clavin, a 45-year-old Los Angeles event planner and decorator who has seen business slow. In exchange for giving the townhouse a stylishly lived-in look, she gets to stay there at a steep discount and stands to earn a bonus if the house sells fast.
"if a shark of capitalism says the government is going too far... it must be deep, too deep for comfort."
Don't capitalists ALWAYS say government goes too far, even if part of the problem was a lack of government oversight?
Expanding on the subject of labor from the previous thread;
The greatest hindreance to the upward mobility of the average American worker has been the ever increasing double digit inflation in the cost of health care. The average American worker is an economic health care slave. It also keeps their wages supressed due to their lack of mobillity.
Which reminds me. Any DC-2000 sightings?
"Don't capitalists ALWAYS say government goes too far,"
True, however they are mostly silent when it comes to feeding cash into financial markets (because they are major beneficiaries. )
I think many of my customers have had swine flu for years, just untreated. We give them plastic cups to drink out of. Then we write their names on the cups for next time.
@1cn -yogi
This is nowhere near over. Even if there is a 3rd or 4th half temporary recovery, these guys don't realize how big of a target they are painting on their back. When asked over the past few months how I see the near term playing out, I always point to the disconnect between the financial industry (compensation, stock prices and bailouts) compared to the the real economy. The shill's question about "will you and/or your workers be better off if the banks are bankrupt" is classic. A threat veiled as an insult. The ancient Greeks did us great service with their tragedies. It's disappointing we believe in so many other ancient fictions but not these. These guys are showing that they will believe their own lies after having their bluff called. Perhaps the commentariat wants this tragedy to play out quicker, but their folly will eventually bring them down. It may take us with them or we might live to fight the next battle but the lines have been drawn. As far as the banksters are concerned, legislated indentured servitude is the future for the united states.
Back on topic: "Why does the FHFA (OFHEO) index show house price gains for the last two months, whereas the Case-Shiller is showing prices are still falling."
From the details I posted in the previous thread, residential in Texas is just beginning to nose dive. We're 12 months behind.
Leftys Liquors Lubricants and Tarp and Bank,
No PPIP yet.. at this rate, Geithner is gonna make you take a very long name.
Comrade de Chaos, his suggestion is that they're attaching too many strings to the money they're handing out (and it might get worse!). The future of capitalism seems to rank right along with his investors on the list of things he doesn't much care about.
BTW, the 9mm is able to be wielded by everyone in the family quite effectively
Yeah, me & my better half both have 9's. Suits us just fine, and I've handled just about everything.
"True, however they are mostly silent when it comes to feeding cash into financial markets (because they are major beneficiaries. )"
Yeah, I know. They want the money, WITHOUT the strings attached.
Roubini Says U.S. Stress Tests Not ‘Serious,’ Banks Insolvent
Roubini Says U.S. Stress Tests Not ‘Serious,’ Banks Insolvent - Bloomberg.com
By Carlos Torres
April 27 (Bloomberg) -- A persistent recession and mounting unemployment will leave the U.S. financial system “insolvent,” implying the stress tests performed by regulators weren’t rigorous enough, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economics professor who predicted the financial crisis.
Losses at U.S. banks and broker dealers will swell to $1.8 trillion, almost 100 percent more than the current amount, as the economic slump lasts at least through this year and the jobless rate climbs to 12 percent by 2010, Roubini said today at the CFA Institute’s annual conference in Orlando, Florida.
The losses would exceed the $1.4 trillion in capital that banks currently have, meaning “the system in the aggregate looks insolvent,” Roubini said.
The rate at which the U.S. economy contracts will diminish from the 6 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter to about 2 percent in the last three months of 2009, he said. Still, Roubini estimated the jobless rate will reach 11 percent by the end of this year and keep rising as companies retrench.
Policy makers assumed the rate would reach 10.3 percent in 2010 in the “more adverse” of U.S. regulators’ two scenarios in the stress tests to determine how much capital banks may need over two years.
“The stress tests are not really serious,” he said, predicting even the more adverse outcomes predicted by officials will be overtaken by events.
I WANT TO KNOW:
Where are all the lawyers when we need them?
DICK Cheney, as VP, he is not responsible to FOIA, because he is the fifth branch of govt, neither part of the ADMIN or the SENATE...
THE FED claims that they do not have to comply with the FOIA, because they are a private corporation...somewhat like an independent arm of the USG?
I WANT TO KNOW, how this can take place and no one is calling his bluff or the FED's bluff?
lost-confused,
Google "Sophism".. and the answer will be self evident.
"I am not Dr Doom: I am Dr Realist": Interview with Newsweek and Washington Post
RGE - "I am not Dr Doom: I am Dr Realist": Interview with Newsweek and Washington Post
Nouriel Roubini | Apr 27, 2009
Lally Weymouth of Newsweek and The Post sat down last week with economist Nouriel Roubini. Excerpts:
Q. You are the economist known for predicting the economic downturn in 2008. What do you believe is happening to the economy today?
A. The consensus among economists is that they see the economy that was contracting for the last two quarters at 6 percent going into positive economic growth by the second half of this year. . . . I believe that the rate of economic contraction is going to slow from negative 6 percent in the last two quarters to negative 2 percent by the fourth quarter.
Next year, I believe that the growth rate is going to be low -- 0.5 percent for the U.S., compared to the consensus view of [plus] 2 percent. I believe the unemployment rate this year is going to go well above 10 percent and will be well above 11 percent next year, so even if we are technically out of a recession, we are going to feel like we are in a recession.
kz:
The shill was so beat he could only bring up how baseball players make so much money. At least the baseball player's performance is transparent. Barring steroids, of course, he can't hit 50 home runs on paper that disappear on a balance sheet. And the teams don't give the fans back their money even if he's caught with steroids.
The banks should be ashamed that they made big profits in Q1. Instead they gloat.
""The role of government in the United States, one of the great free markets in the world, has become frightening," Griffin said today during a panel discussion at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California."
I haven't seen his whole speech, just a summary. Maybe I did miss something, however I doubt his concern was about strings but rather degree of involvement ....
by the way, am I the only one who finds location of Milken institute in the heart of Santa Monica (Social Republic of SM) to be very ironic?
Comrade de Chaos,
Not as ironic as philandering republicans trying to impeach clinton.
Roubini via Lucifer:
“The stress tests are not really serious,” he said, predicting even the more adverse outcomes predicted by officials will be overtaken by events.
Geithner: "Your point being?..."
Summers: "But I am dead serious!"
Bernanke: "Shush! You will spook the markets!.."
I just read your link, but here's the next quote: "We cannot fuel constructive policy by pandering to anger," Griffin said at today's conference. "This is a disaster that everyone in our economy participated in creating. I'm not trying to take Wall Street and the banking system off the hook, but we need to find a way to move past this crisis."
The suggestion to me was that he objects not to the support (and implicit picking of winners and losers) but to the backlash resulting in executive compensation limits, the AIG bonus non-law, etc. Seems he likes the money. He just doesn't want any accountability.
MrM,
This is starting to resemble vaudeville... and that is what I am concerned about. Trust in institutions is hard to earn but easy to lose.
"The ancient Greeks did us great service with their tragedies."
-and thank God the Arabs preserved them for us.
barfly,
You mean their jewish and christian scribes?
//-and thank God the Arabs preserved them for us. //
Lucifer,
The social contract is broken for everybody to see, but the banksters could not give a flying f*ck. The moment of danger has passed and the pay days are back, baby!
Being a talented lawyer, Obama can rationalize everything, from torture to wealth transfer from poor to rich.
The saddest thing is that Joe 6Pack is not hurting badly enough to give a damn, either. Baseball and basketball rule!
- at the risk of being put on permanent ignore, I submit the following: (WARNING! May constitute cruel and unusual punishment.)
That's all well and good, but can she make chili?
MrM,
They cannot learn and change in this life, maybe in an other life.
//The social contract is broken for everybody to see, but the banksters could not give a flying f*ck.//
I don't see you so don't pretend to be there.
Well oh yeah?! Well fuck you.
And that goes for your stupid cat too!
(nothing personal, just responding to those who ignore me)
"...but can she make chili?
I got a mole on my foot looks like Nixon.
But that doesn't explain why the lawyers are not all over this issue...Lawyers are wordsmiths...they know this game, the good lawyers should know how to play this game better than anyone else...sophistry...
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 4/27/2009 - 7:23 pm
Google "Sophism".. and the answer will be self evident.
volker the viking,
While I am not against an ignore button, I am not if favor of any comment rating system.. you know about the problems inherent in rating systems
Personally, I am not offended by anyone.. it is a market place of ideas anyway.
"even OFHEO has said they don't know why or can't explain their own numbers from the last two months"
Thatz because Phony Mae & Fraudie Mac are being scammed to overpay
for houses.
When it is tax payers footing the bill, why should originators scrutinize
the appraisals?
They cannot learn and change in this life, maybe in an other life.
Lucifer - Ironically, it applies to all major characters in this drama/vaudeville, not just the banksters
lost-confused,
They are usually not men or women of action... just more empty clever words.
//Lawyers are wordsmiths//
BTW, in MBS land today, BB continued to push the MBS/Treasury spread to unprecedented levels, basically ignoring any Fannie/Freddie counterparty risk, and most prepayment risk. He is now paying 95bps spread over Treasuries for MBS (i.e. the 10 year treasury is at 2.91, the current coupon MBS is at 3.86).
We are basically in no man's land in the MBS market now, the point of no return. Even in a normal market, no outside investor would pay that much for an MBS, given the prepayment risk. As I have said before, BB is going to need to buy the entire MBS market (except for what MSR hedgers buy), so this year will need to add an estimated 1.75T or so.
No question in my mind this move alone will cost the Fed whatever independence it has left.
hbb said: Thatz because Phony Mae & Fraudie Mac are being scammed to overpay
for houses. When it is tax payers footing the bill, why should originators scrutinize
the appraisals?
I thought they recently introduced measures to ensure the independence of appraisals?
I do not think you got my original drift. I was implying that they will never willingly make things reasonable.. as long as they are alive. The French aristocrats had similar ideas..
//Lucifer - Ironically, it applies to all major characters in this drama/vaudeville, not just the banksters//
volker the viking,
If it looked like reagan, you could have made some money.
//I got a mole on my foot looks like Nixon.//
" hbb (profile) wrote on Mon, 4/27/2009 - 7:54 pm
When it is tax payers footing the bill, why should originators scrutinize
the appraisals?"
Also, don't forget their new "underwater refi" program doesn't even require an appraisal. Yeah, I'll bet those valuation estimates are going to be realistic.
That program, BTW, is literally criminal, in that it ignores the laws on the books regarding what Fannie/Freddie can buy without credit enhancement. Oh, but remember, "we are a nation of laws". yeah, right.
Face it folk, this is a journal where some good reportage happens. We gather up in claques and 'talk' amongst ourselves. That we get some pretty good information from our host is or should be quite enough. That we entertain each other is good. Sometimes, rarely, we inform each other. Mostly we just go on and on. Those who take themselves too seriously in this process should think it over, take your time about it too. What makes you any more or less important to the totality of this community? And you don't want to be 'bothered' with scrolling through comments by those who irritate you? Aw, shucks. That's too bad. So check out. Good for you. buh bye!
I'm just happy to be here, where ever here is. And I'm more than satisfied to know that every time I come here, CR gets a little bit of bread from the advertisers. Frankly, I'd click on them more often if they were a bit more feminine and a lot less covered up with textiles. Does that make me a bad person?
The ignore capability was invented to deal with users who are "First !", and obnoxious about it
luc: I was responding to someone I had been ignoring
I got that much, Lucifer, and added to it my own drift that the taxpayers will gladly continue giving unlimited non-recourse loans to the bankers so long as
(a) the taxpayers are assured the country is not going communist
(b) the taxpayers are promised that one day one of them can become the CEO of Goldman Sachs
One Nation, Under Banks With Justice for No One: Jonathan Weil
One Nation, Under Banks With Justice for No One: Jonathan Weil - Bloomberg.com
Commentary by Jonathan Weil
April 27 (Bloomberg) -- The spectacle of Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson running roughshod over Kenneth Lewis and his minions at Bank of America Corp. raises a pivotal question for all Americans: Is the U.S. a nation of laws, or a nation of banks?
Let’s start by examining the facts disclosed last week in a letter by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, while taking pains to present the actions of each player in this drama in the fairest possible light.
Both Bernanke and Paulson in mid-December knew Bank of America was obliged by statute to publicly disclose the huge losses Merrill Lynch & Co. had racked up that month. You don’t get to be chairman of the Federal Reserve or, in Paulson’s case, secretary of the Treasury or head of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. without learning this basic tenet of U.S. securities laws. Instead of making sure the public was fully informed of the losses before Bank of America completed its purchase of Merrill on Jan. 1, they did all they could to keep the secret safe.
BTW: if you want to be somewhere that takes itself waaaaaaay too seriously then check out one of the other very popular and highly regarded economic blogs. That place is full of avatars that are more than happy to tell you just how stupid, stupid, stupid you are; the owner deletes posts, and never misses any opportunity to tell you how much he knows and why you're wrong.
So go, find it, you'll most likely fit in. Until you don't. Then you'll be back. Here, where ever here is.
MrM,
and (c) They are not living on the street or close to poverty.
True that
Interesting/frightening chart of the day, http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/60-days-late-loans.jpg
Loan recovery rates keep falling. Loss given default for home equity down from 80% in 2006 to less than 30% today. Prime jumbo from 80-90% down to 60%. These are nationwide numbers for nonagency paper. The losses for CA, FL, NV, must be astonishing. I'll bet the HELOC recovery rates for CA bottom out at under 5%.
Volker, lucifer only repeats widely available news, with his own "editorial", and sometimes regales us with his medical knowledge, which I must admit is interesting, but his worldview is otherwise a complete waste, so far as I am concerned, and you are welcome to it. Michael is a complete joke. Period. And if you can stomach the Mexican hater, more power to you. I won't even go into the anti-semites.
Oh, they're cute when they're that age.
Christine Lagarde, the finance minister of France, on Jon Stewart argues for increased regulation of the financial industry and calmly claims that if the government takes a majority stake in a bank, it must exercise control , including firing of senior management.
And on top of that, she is so much better looking than Geithner and Summers!
lucifer has knowledge about medicine to the extent that he can glean it from Wikipedia and or Google.
Michaels is a CIA operative.
I don't know the Mexican hater.
And as for the anti-semites; well, they can go on and on. But it's nothing to skip over them.
It takes all kinds. Even the ones who serve as bad examples have their place.
"barfly" is ambiguous. Is it pronounced bar-fly or barf-lee?
And on top of that, she is so much better looking than Geithner and Summers!
Bien sur, mais.... est-ce qu'elle peut cuisiner le chili? (sorry).
Having read the eight (so far) posts of CR today, I'm left wondering what do I pay for this service? This is better than just 'good reportage.' I could not find this information elsewhere with anywhere near the ease of reading these eight posts.
I'm just happy to be here, where ever here is.
You and me both, brother.
..the rest of us pretend to be lawyers and prophets...in no particular order
Volker - they raise my blood pressure, a condition I can ill afford.
Bien sur, mais.... est-ce qu'elle peut cuisiner le chili?
I seriously doubt that
ROFL
Good night, all
Funkadelic classic....
YouTube - Funkadelic - Maggot Brain
No question in my mind this move alone will cost the Fed whatever independence it has left.
Totally agree.
Ironic, isn't it, that the GSEs will be the ultimate downfall of the Fed. It's one thing to finance a profligate government, but quite another to also feed the black hold that is Fannie & Freddie. Trapped between the proverbial "rock and a hard place", they can't fund them forever but they can't not.
Ultimately, monetizing MBS (and other derivatives) has to be viewed the same as monetizing T's. The end draws ever near.
-fly, as in 'one who frequents drinking establishments'.
Volker,
I do drug research for a living.
Uh oh. A comment asking for hoocoodanode tips can't have a glitch.
Since I use "adblock plus" free and clear, I offered CR a tip, but he refused.
If you don't put bread in Ken Cooper's jar, upper left, I won't let you use my new currency.
Lucif wrote Mon, 4/27/2009 - 6:28 pm
bobn,
I agree.. An effective weapon is one that you can use easily . The rest.. theoretical performance etc are crap.
i know a lot of guys who have big honkin weapons that spend most of the time in their safe. (god forbid their sock drawer)
the best gun is the gun that you will carry
i choose a pistol like i choose the shoe or tie that i wear that day
mostly carry a 22 magnum 5 shot single action revolver...deep cover
but when i go to the hill top (crip country) to the group health clinic, im packin the larger caliber semi auto
but either way i wouldnt talk back to a 25 auto nor a 38 nor a 9 kurz just cause it wasnt the biggest bullet on the block
all of em will ventilate you in ways vicious and ugly
no, you raise your own blood pressure
remember, every action you take is an action you have control over, you decide whether you get angry or just accept them as they are
you decide to have a nice day
you decide to pick up that Louisville slugger and rearrange the asshole's hairline
and (this is the really good part) you are not affected by anyone else
maybe you're projecting, or perhaps reflecting when these episodes happen
one thing for sure, and you should know this (being in the business you're in) all anger/resentment is the result of your fear and until you get a good and full inventory of all your fears and resentments you'll be subject to them and lead a less than fully actualized existence
lucifer: well, good for you
I'm the back up power forward for the Sonics.
Volker - they raise my blood pressure, a condition I can ill afford.
barfly, i think you have a contribution to make here, so let me say, with all due respect,
Get Over It
Just ignore the line about killing all the lawyers tonight.
"I do drug research for a living."
I'd like to!
The is OT, but NYC has funded JumpStart, the rehab program for laid off FIRE folks....the New Yorker sent a reporter to get an inside look...all funded with tax dollars...on the same day the Transit folks announced we had passed the doomsday scenario, and with falling tax revenues and ridership, we are another 500 million plus in the hole, with no funds left to close the gap, and a 30% rise in fares not enough....another gorgeous day in Manhattan.
Career Counselling: Take Two : The New Yorker
Volker - you're a better man than I, which is why you're married to (...), and I'm not.
SPU is an interesting spot for Shiller to speak. UW, a normal university, is a short drive away.
If one were to spend much time in Seattle, one would find Seattle Pacific University's leanings to be quite out of place.
"Because Seattle Pacific University is strongly tied with the Evangelical Christian church, the rules and regulations on drinking are quite strict, however, students seem to find other ways. However, if drinking isn’t really your thing, you’ll do just fine here. There are no fraternities and sororities, so partying is kept to a minimum in general. Seattle Pacific University also offers its students many sports, both varsity and intramural, which are very popular with students. There are also a large number of community service oriented clubs and organizations with which many students are involved.
The dating scene is actually quite vibrant and liberal, despite the school’s general conservative leanings. There are even lots of people with piercings and hair dye... whoa."
Yes. whoa.
barfly, some of us understood that at a moment's notice. You're connected here . . . just not with everyone.
Neither am I.
which is why you're married to (...), and I'm not
what's her name. And I wouldn't wish it on you either. God sent her to torment me before my time. She's a large angry woman and I'm afraid of her.
Barfly,
I am not sure if you understand this, but opinions of the mainstream matter. Changes in widely held opinions are more consequential than yours.
"She's a large angry woman and I'm afraid of her."
obviously she needs to be spanked
sportsfan, that moron has already set my life back six or eight years. I don't plan on giving him any more.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 4/27/2009 - 10:32 pm
* reply
* Ignore user
Volker,
I do drug research for a living.
Be sure to use clean needles. And remember, you have no real friends in that world.
barfly, gotta skip the morons. They're easy to identify. Their names appear before any they say.
Oh, wow, I just saw the 'ignore user' button. Having been one of the many who asked Ken to add this feature, I can't wait to use it.
Step forward, moron. I'm ready to zap you and, unlike mt, I'm not carrying.
mt, what's that about?
"""The men were participants in JumpStart NYC, a free, government-funded program that is training laid-off Wall Streeters for new careers."""
I'm impressed. Someone really did come up with the name JUMPstart for a program to get ex banksters to spread their wings... Me thinks maybe we don't need the -start bit!
" April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Demetris Efstathiou, a hedge-fund trader and a Londoner for two decades, listened last week to Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling outline a plan to raise taxes on high earners. Then he decided to leave Britain.
“There is no reason for me to stay here anymore,” said Efstathiou, a 38-year-old Cypriot who moved to London in 1990. “This tax increase is the last straw. This government is no longer interested in the City.” Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s proposal to boost the tax rate to 50 percent from 40 percent on income above 150,000 pounds ($220,000) pushed headlines about “class warfare” onto the front pages of the capital’s newspapers. It also prompted predictions from business groups that it would undermine the U.K.’s competitiveness and lead to an exodus of financial talent. Brown was portrayed as Vladimir Lenin in a cartoon on Page One of the Daily Telegraph."
The media keep using this word "talent" when referring to banksters...I'd like to know who wrote the style guide for financial reporting.
"...And I wouldn't wish it on you either"
--I would. I need a heavy hand.
Bloomberg also has a piece tonight about NYC-area laid off financial workers:
"Roberts never earned millions from Wall Street. In his best years, he made $500,000, which provided scant cushion against prolonged unemployment or career upheaval. His salary is more representative than those of the chief executive officers and hedge fund managers who have been pilloried in congressional hearings".
The tone of the piece is that the reader should feel sadness that this person only made $500k at best.
"Step forward, moron. I'm ready to zap you"
Go for it, Pumpkin Bread Boy!
"Strike me down and I shall become more powerful than you could possibly imagine
scant cushion?!?!
AAARRRRRGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Then Demetris Efstathiou came down from his coke high, and realized that New York also had just raised taxes, and he might not be welcome in Tennessee or some other tax haven, and China wasn't really an option, nor his home Cyprus, nor...
Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s proposal to boost the tax rate to 50 percent from 40 percent on income above 150,000 pounds ($220,000) pushed headlines about “class warfare” onto the front pages of the capital’s newspapers.
Fifty percent is unlivable? Is everyone leaving in a tax free dreamland or are they just ignorant of history.
I realize the Beatles are old school, but c'mon, I'm still alive and so are two of them.
Let me tell you how it will be . . .
There's one for you, nineteen for me . . .
"Cause I'm the tax man
Yeah, I'm the tax man.
Should five percent appear too small
Be thankful I don't take it all
"Cause I'm the tax man
Yeah, I'm the tax man.
For those of you who missed this in history class, it's on youtube. Search 'Beatles" and "Taxman"
Yeah, that was a 95% tax.
TJ and the Bear,
The piece gets worse, I promise. I can't decide if it was written as a sob story for Wall Streeters or as a "rabble-rouser"; i.e. gets the torches and pitchforkers into the streets.
LOL, broward. I don't ignore people with whom I disagree, just the real morons whatever color they're wearing.
YouTube - tammy wynette stand by your man
so if i press the ignore button
they ignore me
or
i ignore them
hmmm decisions decisions
"In his best years, he made $500,000, which provided scant cushion against prolonged unemployment or career upheaval. "
Scant cushion? Gee, and I was just thinking about the huge numbers of back office folks, who never made more than 50k a year, whose jobs were vaporized. What kind of cushion do you guess that have?
sportsfan, the tax rates on some investment income in England were over 100% at the time. And people wonder why Thatcher got elected.
But Demetris Estathiou's hedge fund investors had already replaced him, realizing they could lose the same amount of money using Nemo's monkey, at a fraction of the cost.
broward, I've occasionally quoted Nietzsche here and suggested that reading him in 1970-72 had something to do with me retaining a modest amount of sanity throughout the rest of my life, knowing, as I learned early, that he went quite insane:
One of the things he said that stayed with me over the years was:
"The surrest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike rather than those who think differently."
The Dawn (1881)
I can assure you my own children have learned to appreciate opinions that seem to be odds with their own father's. That was not an accident.
NYC has "Jumpstart" for laid-off bankers, and taxpayers have "Start Jump" for those still employed.
"I can assure you my own children have learned to appreciate opinions that seem to be odds with their own father's."
Yeah back when sterling had value all those rock stars set up residence elsewhere.
Baby, you're a rich man, too.
sportsfan, that's cool! Your kids contradict you, like all kids contradict their parents, But you, instead of getting upset like other parents at your kids ignoring your leadership, have convinced yourself that they are in fact following your leadership. It doesn't really matter how you get there. As long as the disbelief can be suspended somehow, it works:)
. . .please let us know how that works out . . .
Funny, but I won't be around for the final acts, so who ever knows?
This is way late, but seemed on topic:
Shadow Inventory Looms
Shadow Inventory Looms | Piggington's Econo-Almanac | San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis
Moving on, I wanted to highlight some really interesting analysis recently performed by realtor and fellow panelist Jim Klinge.
I have been writing for some time about the strange mixed signals being sent by housing inventory and foreclosure activity. Housing inventory is at a level that, superficially, would indicate a fairly healthy market. Yet homes are going into foreclosure at a very rapid pace, a fact that leads one to believe that a lot of must-sell inventory could eventually hit the market.
"White House was updating Air Force-One file photo - while nearby buildings are evacuated out of fear of another 911"
"Oh God, it was mayhem in here, just mayhem". This is a perfect example.......the hub of my concern...........why are there so many of these "brain fades"? Shouldn't there be intelligent thought as to pro/cons before-the-fact?
Photo Op Turns Into White House Blunder - WSJ.com
More from that dude:
The Foreclosure Onslaught Continues
http://voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2009/04/21/toscano/719marchforeclosures041409.txt
In the month of March, 4,260 homes received default notices, which are nastygrams informing delinquent borrowers that they are in foreclosure.
This longer-term graph, which is adjusted for San Diego's population growth, shows just how many more mortgage defaults are taking place now than in the 1990s downturn:
patientrenter, it's not suspending disbelief, nor is it a contradiction. It's reality.
I realize it's a cliche to say that young men 22 and 19 years of age don't agree with their parents. That's not what I was saying.
Actually, they agree with me on many points, but their mother and I have tried to instill in them the ability to think independently.
Are you in Germany? I seem to recall that. The younger one is and the older one was. I've never been there myself.
Has there been much talk about the IMF selling bonds?
Black Star:
Nice find there!
Re: The email specifies that the information "only be shared with persons with a need to know" and "shall not be released to the public." It also says that, "Due to the possibility of public concern regarding [Department of Defense] aircraft flying at low levels, coordination with Federal, State and Local law enforcement agencies...has been accomplished."
sportsfan, as you have undoubtedly learned, no one ever learns but the hard way, and it will be no different for your children. If they remember you with love, it will be enough.
barfly, you're a wise man. Can I buy you a drink?
April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said the results of U.S. bank stress tests will be released in a way that will be “public confidence- instilling,” and won’t damage any institution.
...“It’s not a pass-fail,” Bair said. “It’s not a solvency test.”
I'm numb.
-would you, please?
I'm stuck here in Bubbleville, California, but we have a full bar.
Is anybody else watching the Nikkei
tonight?
Vertical lines abound.
In a quick scan of the by-laws rules and regulations, I see nothing forbidding it. However, how would bonds alter the member nation IMF quotes it currently draws funding through?
“It’s not a pass-fail,” Bair said. “It’s not a solvency test.”
Ah, a puff piece. How, transparent.
My head hurts, good night.
Salud, barfly.
Nemo, doesn't the Nikkei follow, rather than lead? Vertical or not, it's just 100 points.
"London Bankers Look for Exits After ‘Last Straw’ Tax Increase " -Bloomberg
and how many of these guys are looking for an exit because the UK equivalent of the SEC is looking to visit in the near future? It should be interesting to see how the UK handles this as they seem to be a step ahead of our clown patrol.
From the previous thread:
CashOnlyHousing - you sure you want to know who's ignoring you?
Seriously, I think it's better that this be kept private. The intent is to lower the amount of friction, not increase it, which is what I think that might do.
Tupuli - I could add a header only pretty easily (I in fact modified an existing module that had that behavior). I found it a little cluttering to see these empty comments, and figured people wanted to completely ignore those they clicked on. Still, I understand the desire for the context. I could make it a personal preference. I could also show the comments of ignored users in gray, as I did with CRC.
I have to say that the opinions of many posters here (barfly, volker, hoops) do not matter.. The world they grew up and believed in has passed away.. but people find it hard to let go.. everyone is trying to defibrillate the rotting corpse in their own way... look at at geithner and bernanke.. they are really trying hard.
But it is not coming back.. nor is their plan B or C any good.. But most of these self appointed moral outrage gurus are not willing to accept the fundamental flaw in their thinking... namely, believing in things that were never real.
Many of these self appointed aging guardians believed that they were destined to do A , B or C.. because they were white and old "wise" white guys told them they were correct, all-knowing and special. They expected to live and die in a world where their life was meaningful according to their self-defined milestones and beliefs.
But the universe does not care about your beliefs or desires, it runs on probabilities. As long as you guys were on the right side of that wave, it looked like an endless summer.. now that the wave has moved on.. you are starting to see that you were never special... just lucky... luck runs out.
But your minds will try to use all their defense mechanism to deny this 'new' reality... I just find it amusing to watch.
kcoop,
I could care less if I was ignored by the regulars.. they were never part of reason why I post here anyway