Nemo, since the animation is historical, I guess it includes the 1918 flu epidemic.
In the previous thread, J.P asked about Q1 GDP. I think it will be around -6%. Personal consumption was probably flat, but investment was very negative - and so was the inventory correction. Trade might have helped.
Consider that it may be a positive thing for multigenerations to live in one household, not only financially but also for the stability and development of the family... That is if the family gets along with each other and does not engage in destructive behavior...
Years ago I knew of a family that had a large estate/compound... each individual married couple and children had a separate residence - either a cottage or apartment, but there was a huge common living room/game room and a big industrial kitchen for group meals... I think there might have been close to 100 people living there... They owned a construction business and most of the family worked in that business too... it worked well for them - there was plenty of interpersonal support and overall everyone lived much better than they would individually.
I probably also know a lot of people who could never adapt to that communal way of life.
Health authorities suspect the Mexican outbreak started in Feb. and that the pneumonia outbreak is connected to the swine flu. Smithfield factory farm is near the village where some 400 came down with respiratory illnesses.
"Years ago I knew of a family that had a large estate/compound.."
It's not uncommon for German families to have such an arrangement. My landlords had a family compound. Most german builders offer models with 2 or more storied homes with each level a self-contained unit. Building land is limited & expensive and so it makes sense. And yes, there usually problems between the wives & MILs.
Too bad a decent border fence wasn't installed after 9/11 to secure the border. It probably would have paid for itself in quarantining the disease for us to properly prepare for it in time.
EHP: I read that study...American priorities are changing. I think things had begun to change before the credit crisis, but the foreclosure mess has accelerated it...made it more visible. Question is: Will it stick?
Intuitively, the decline in homeownership rate over the next 10-15 years would likely apply to the younger generations who are currently being disabused of the notion that housing "always goes up".
Reading through the nice little link EHP supplied, that younger generation still believes in the US financial system which suggests that they have not in fact been abused yet, or disabused--my guess is 10 years of underemployment or just outright unemployment will bring them steadily into the camp of their elders who distrust the financial system, more often than not.
I disagree. There's zero mortality in the US of all reported cases.
There are other reason's to maintain an effective border other than pretending like it can stop the flu. Airtravel is the primary vector for spreading these type of diseases to far-flung locations.
Interesting charts. It looks like the increased home ownership since 1985 (and probably confined to a narrower band than that) is due to a widening of the curve at the two ends. Percentages through the 30, 40 and 50 age groups stayed about the same. Popular wisdom says a bit differently - it presumes that the increase was inclusion of lower economic clases at all age groups.
So perhaps it was not the increased percentage of ownership that drove defaults as much as it was the move-up mania.
so the usual suspects were the same in 2000,
the weakest ( old & young) partying together, drinking the kool-aid and ridding the mortgage pig,
only heavy student loans and bust boomers remains now
CAUTION: LENGTHY and OFF-TOPIC COMMENT (FLU DISCUSSION):
For understanding the impact of a pandemic disease, two major questions are:
1) how many people will get sick?, and
2) how many might die?
For the latest flu outbreak, previous flu pandemics provide some clues on what might happen. These should be taken as relatively unlikely, but entirely possible "worst case" scenarios. One would hope that modern medical knowledge will improve the outcome. Also, the 1918-1919 flu, at the tail end of World War I, swept through large concentrations of people in unsanitary and unhealthy conditions. This would including civilians and soldiers on rationed food & energy and with high fatigue/stress levels, soldiers concentrated in high-germ-transmission conditions on ships and in barracks, and
limited medical care availability especially during times of peak need when available facilities were overwhelmed. On the other hand, in 2009 we have a larger population density worldwide, more global travel & exchange of germs, and much higher proportion of the population in the highly-vulnerable group with age > 65. Regardless, even with modern medical care, a 1918-1919 style flu would kill millions worldwide. (For comparison: Normal influenza kills an estimated 250,000 to 500,000 each year already.)
Definitions Used Here:
P = total population
S = number who get sick.
S/P = "Morbidity": an individual's chances of getting sick
H = number hospitalized (H < S, maybe H much less than Total Sick)
D = deaths (may not all be in hospitals).
D/P = "Mortality": an individual's chances of dying
Historical Example #1 -- 1918-1919 Flu Pandemic (worldwide):
P ~ 1,500,000,000
S ~ 500,000,000
... Morbidity was about 30% (in a normal year, all flus total 5-15%)
D ~ 50,000,000 (well documented estimate. but might be 2x more?)
... Mortality was about 3% of world population
Historical Example #2 -- 1957 & 1968 Flu pandemics (worldwide):
P ~3,000,000,000
S ~ unknown
Morbidity estimates assume 15-35% morbidity
D ~ 1,500,000
Mortality was about 0.05%
Current Situation, based on news reports scanned as of 4/27 at 12:00 US PDT:
Mexico 2009:
P = 110,000,000
S > 20,000 (estimated very roughly from reported Hospitalizations)
Projected S = 15,000,000 to 35,000,000 (15-35% morbidity)
H >= 2,000 (likely to be outdated number; still increasing)
D >= 150 (undercounting?; outdated number; still increasing)
Projected D up to 50,000 (if 1957/1968-like to 3,000,000 if 1918-like)
Note: There is not enough official information yet to determine whether the 2009 flu is, or is not, as bad as 1918/1957/1968. But the ratio of reported deaths to reported hospitalizations is distressingly high, and the anecdotal reports published by the BBC yesterday from medical professionals in Mexico were also distressing. Mexican authorities today stated that about 1000 of the 1995 people hospitalized had gone home (presumably cured). With the 149 stated deaths, one presumes 850 of the 2000 known cases are still in the hospitals. All the numbers are increasing strongly on a daily basis so we appear to be still in the exponential-growth phase.
World 2009 (projections assuming globalization of influenza in Mexico):
P = 6,800,000,000
S projected from 1,000,000,000 to 2,000,000,000
D projected from 100,000 (if everything goes really well) to 3,000,000 (if as bad as 1957/1968)
to as high as 500,000,000 (if high end of 1919 estimates)
I'd appreciate feedback, and if there is interest I will update and repost this as events progress.
For what it's worth, we had an unusually nasty set of lung infections and/or acute asthma sweep through where we live (San Francisco Bay Area) a month or two ago. Many people I know had a nasty cough for 3-4 weeks or more. I've never had an asthmatic reaction in my life until this time. Both my children (ages 4 and 7) had asthmatic reactions; for one child it was the only asthma event in the past couple of years. My wife is still recovering. I do not know if this is related or not, but the possible intersection of a nasty flu with this other lung-damaging medical hazard is unsettling to us here.
"Remember the Hong Kong flu?? Must have been around 1967-68. The thing that was most striking to me about that flu was that the demographic was the same as you have cited here. It was young adults that were the most severely affected. I was working as an inservice coordinator at St. Alexis Hospital in Cleveland at the time and watched in horror as young people succumbed to the virus.
"If the age range continues to hold true than somewhere in the past 60 years or so, we have experienced a similar virus - to which older people have an immunity but younger people have none. "
If I were 20 today, I would be looking for a piece of unimproved land that I could buy with cash, and then get a cheap travel trailer to live in until I could afford to build a house with cash. No debt.
glad everyone liked the link. With the median unemployment at 11 weeks, St. Louis Fed: Series: UEMPMED, Median Duration of Unemployment , a job loss would bankrupt (by their own estimation of savings and expenses) even 51% of the most fortified "silent generation" (ranging up to 81% of "Gen Y"). Job loss or income reductions are game changers. Demographic changes mean squat when it is one big group of no savings, no house, and will take any work available (the majority who go on unemployment now exhaust the twice extended benefits). The older population will liquidate their homes for cash, faster than the younger population will have the desire and means to buy the homes.
I can feel it coming. Like just before a big rainstorm. Reminds me of last September. Lots of "containment" talk, without using those actual words now that they are a euphemism for collapse. Plus, the bottom calling seems to have reached new highs. Not that CNBC ever stops, but Cramer drawing his line in the sand, just screams at me that we are in for another leg down.
ShadowInventory
If you were 20 today, you would find a vacant house in some development full of identical homes, and squat in it. Better yet, if you had no in demand skills, you would start a company that looks after maintenance of vacant homes and choose one of the properties you manage to live in.
Tim-
I think it was CR who made the analogy of the baby boomers were causing an effect on the animated graph like "a pig moving through a python"--
The Stone Heads refer to Easter Island, and the delusion of an committed ideology and denial of resource limitations, with the tribe(there were 12) with the largess Stone Head's having the greatest social prestige.
Re unemployment - Many people who get on unemployment benefits draw for the maximum time, not getting motivated to look for on the books work until their benefits are running out... Many people who are drawing benefits also find some way to supplement their income with some kind of cash business - craigslist, working for cash etc...
I don't know if this was discussed on an earlier thread, but I just read over at Zero Hedge that Air Force One did a fly by of Manhattan today for a photo op, but they didn't bother to tell anyone ahead of time. Apparently caused some panic (office workers evacuated their buildings). I guess it doesn't matter who is running the Federal government, they are stuck on stupid.
@Shadow "Re Bay Area asthma etc... The last month is the peak time for pollen allergies too which have the same symptoms..."
I agree, and that's quite possibly what happened, but we'd never experienced it this way as a family in the previous 9 Bay Area spring pollen seasons. And my wife, who has been ill for about 2 months now, definitely has something worse than allergies going on.
However, that's not really the point of what I wrote. I was hoping to point out with detail the potential seriousness of the influenza outbreak and the fact that certain subpopulations will need to take it more seriously due to specific health issues.
Mexico has cancelled all schools for at least the next 8 days.
"Union guy slamming bank shill on CNBC. Fantastic."
Remember when we used to export actual products, instead of paper? I suspect that this is the battle that the bankers do not want to fight. If BK is good enough for GM, why not for C and company?
Wisdom: Yes, please do update. That nasty infection swept through our area, too, about six weeks ago. We are surrounded by factory farms and we get unexplained severe illnesses all the time. Really weird stuff I've never seen in the other places I've lived. I've always suspected the huge producers might have something to do with it. Been waiting for a bug to make the species leap here.
Here in Greece where I live (an American expat of 30 yrs), the phenomenon in the last 30 yrs was fueled by folks turning over their property to a developer who turned a one-family house into a five-storey building giving the family two apartments and taking the rest--much ground floor space and below-ground were commercial. This has played out over the last generation as the extra apartment (condo) went as dowry to the daughter and now there is nothing left to leverage. Lots of fully owned apartments (condos or flats, depending on what term works for you) but a dismal scene for those 18-35 or so. There is no more to leverage
I recall being surprised at the ads in bank windows a few years ago of 3.95% int mortgages in Swiss Francs and wondering how anyone here could calculate the exchange rate a few years down the line.
Some of this might explain some of the differences between the US and some of Europe, but country by country the situations are so disparate, I have no real idea--think Eastern Europe mortgages in SF or Euros, Germany and a few other countries with rental still the way most folks live.
Back to the compound meme, I spent Greek Easter in a huge villa (by my standards with six bedrooms, three baths on about ten acres with an extended family some of whom were absent--I would guess 5000+ sq ft with basement, but I am bad at these estimates, since we live in 700 sq ft). This was their summer house and getaway from the city. They refuse to sell anything to developers, but then they are local folks in agriculture and IT.
There has been some flu, but the rains and warm weather made everything grow and bloom and then those big April winds hit. This meant VERY large amounts of pollen in the air. I think it was the worst I've seen in the Bay Area, but there have been other springs like this that have been bad too.
I don't think there is any connection to swine flu though.
Haralambos: Thanks for the interesting post about Greece. In Germany it's hard to find land to build on unless it's been in the family a long time. Wonder what dynamic was driving this particular Greek solution? In Germany, they mean to keep their ag land & forests and development in those areas is downright discouraged.
I agree, it's unlikely that this odd spring allergy / respiratory thing is directly connected to the flu. But if you're already suffering from the one, adding on a raging viral infection may be more hazardous than the virus would be by itself...
What is also striking about the first graph is the increase in home ownership among young adults, those under 30 years of age. Maybe I'm a bad example, but I was unable to afford to buy a home in my 20's. Was I the only flibbertgibbert when in their 20's? Since when did young adults in their 20's determine they'd really prefer to be tied down with mortgage payments?
There has been a shift towards 'ownership' of retirement homes among the elderly, these could well correspond to what was an apartment rental or room in a nursing home in earlier eras. While this is probably a plus for net new construction it may not translate into a positive for the inventory of traditional homes.
@Wisdom Speaker
Interesting. A month ago my family of 4 in the BA also all came down with asthma at once, I couldn't figure out why.
We're better now, thanks.
Great animation of the demographic profile, CR. ANy chance of an time extension using Census Bureau projections? Things get scary pensions-wise as the proportion of seniors in the population zooms up between now and 2030.
Saw data last winter (sorry, no link) suggesting broad disinterest in young people in home ownership. Not as a measure of affordability, but of cultural preference for in-city, mobile living.
Bad news for Boomers stuck with decaying suburban debt shacks...
From the abstract:"We document that home ownership of households with \heads" aged 25-
44 years fell substantially between 1980 and 2000 and recovered only partially
during the 2001-2005 housing boom. The 1980-2000 decline in young home
ownership occurred as improvements in mortgage opportunities made it easier
to purchase a home. This paper uses an equilibrium life-cycle model calibrated
to micro and macro evidence to understand why young home ownership fell
over a period when it became easier to own a home. Our findings indicate
that a trend toward marrying later and the increase in household earnings risk
that occurred after 1980 account for 3/5 to 4/5 of the decline in young home
ownership."
Well sure, but do these charts account for the effect of the swine flu?
Nemo, since the animation is historical, I guess it includes the 1918 flu epidemic.
In the previous thread, J.P asked about Q1 GDP. I think it will be around -6%. Personal consumption was probably flat, but investment was very negative - and so was the inventory correction. Trade might have helped.
best to all
It would be interesting to know how many own homes without mortgages by age group
CR,
Thanks for an awesome post, you have taken your peerless info pr0n here to the next level...
Thanks CR. Amazing
When do we start building those big stone heads.
A very interesting animated graph, and I'm a member of the pig through the python part.
Where do you fit CR
Tim,
Ahead of the curve, ahead of the curve...
The difference here is that the 40-60 crowd has a significant portion of their savings in their Home. Unlike their Depression era parents.
Consider that it may be a positive thing for multigenerations to live in one household, not only financially but also for the stability and development of the family... That is if the family gets along with each other and does not engage in destructive behavior...
Years ago I knew of a family that had a large estate/compound... each individual married couple and children had a separate residence - either a cottage or apartment, but there was a huge common living room/game room and a big industrial kitchen for group meals... I think there might have been close to 100 people living there... They owned a construction business and most of the family worked in that business too... it worked well for them - there was plenty of interpersonal support and overall everyone lived much better than they would individually.
I probably also know a lot of people who could never adapt to that communal way of life.
I think I could adapt to the communal way of life as long as it involved a bunch of hot girls not in my family.
Thanks CR!
Health authorities suspect the Mexican outbreak started in Feb. and that the pneumonia outbreak is connected to the swine flu. Smithfield factory farm is near the village where some 400 came down with respiratory illnesses.
Four-year-old could hold key in search for source of swine flu outbreak |
World news |
guardian.co.uk
Thanks CR. Great charts.
By the way, since it's on my back to support the piggy in the python generation, please wear the soft-soled slippers all.
Thanks.
see: MetLife 2009 American Dream Survey
page 16
['Pig through a python' ]
Perhaps it would be more appropriate, given recent events, to change the phrase to 'Swine thru the python'
Tim waiting for 2012, I'm a Morgage Pig in the Python.
best to all.
That python is gonna be sorry.
"Years ago I knew of a family that had a large estate/compound.."
It's not uncommon for German families to have such an arrangement. My landlords had a family compound. Most german builders offer models with 2 or more storied homes with each level a self-contained unit. Building land is limited & expensive and so it makes sense. And yes, there usually problems between the wives & MILs.
Too bad a decent border fence wasn't installed after 9/11 to secure the border. It probably would have paid for itself in quarantining the disease for us to properly prepare for it in time.
Like a Smithfield ham through a big ass snake.
CNN live on swine flu ... if there is a presser, they will no doubt cover it.
CNN.com Live
WHO raises alert level to 4 on scale of 1 to 6
Nice of them to wait for the markets to close.
EvilHenryPaulson,
Thanks for the link.
EHP: I read that study...American priorities are changing. I think things had begun to change before the credit crisis, but the foreclosure mess has accelerated it...made it more visible. Question is: Will it stick?
adornosghost
Stone heads?
I am not clear on the pig and python analogy
Michael,
A fence? Would it have extended 10 miles up to exclude planes? 40 cases were reported in NY Michael.
ugh.
--bh
EHP: this is the company that also does a report annually on nursing home and assisted living costs bycity, state, etc.
Getting numerous reports that level has been raised from 3 to 4 on a scale of 6. Unconfirmed at this point.
Nice graphs CR.
Intuitively, the decline in homeownership rate over the next 10-15 years would likely apply to the younger generations who are currently being disabused of the notion that housing "always goes up".
sorry volker missed your post
blackhat,
You ain't seen nothing yet from the disease walking across the border.
"And that reminds me of an animation I made several years ago showing the U.S. population distribution by age from 1920 to 2000 (plus 2005)."
Very freaking cool.
Ah but Smithfield already issued a denial, so couldn't be them
Food & Beverages News from PR Newswire
Outlier,
Reading through the nice little link EHP supplied, that younger generation still believes in the US financial system which suggests that they have not in fact been abused yet, or disabused--my guess is 10 years of underemployment or just outright unemployment will bring them steadily into the camp of their elders who distrust the financial system, more often than not.
--bh
Phase 4 means there has been verified human-to-human transmission of a virus which is able to cause community-level outbreaks.
markets range bound at 850+/- and 8000+/-
All it takes is one geopolitical event.
Michael,
I disagree. There's zero mortality in the US of all reported cases.
There are other reason's to maintain an effective border other than pretending like it can stop the flu. Airtravel is the primary vector for spreading these type of diseases to far-flung locations.
Have a nice day.
--bh
CR - the bar has been risen. Incredible charts.
Thanks!
This bug has been flying under the radar for more than two months.
Interesting charts. It looks like the increased home ownership since 1985 (and probably confined to a narrower band than that) is due to a widening of the curve at the two ends. Percentages through the 30, 40 and 50 age groups stayed about the same. Popular wisdom says a bit differently - it presumes that the increase was inclusion of lower economic clases at all age groups.
So perhaps it was not the increased percentage of ownership that drove defaults as much as it was the move-up mania.
Should read morbidty, not mortality.
--bh
so the usual suspects were the same in 2000,
the weakest ( old & young) partying together, drinking the kool-aid and ridding the mortgage pig,
only heavy student loans and bust boomers remains now
thx CR
CAUTION: LENGTHY and OFF-TOPIC COMMENT (FLU DISCUSSION):
For understanding the impact of a pandemic disease, two major questions are:
1) how many people will get sick?, and
2) how many might die?
For the latest flu outbreak, previous flu pandemics provide some clues on what might happen. These should be taken as relatively unlikely, but entirely possible "worst case" scenarios. One would hope that modern medical knowledge will improve the outcome. Also, the 1918-1919 flu, at the tail end of World War I, swept through large concentrations of people in unsanitary and unhealthy conditions. This would including civilians and soldiers on rationed food & energy and with high fatigue/stress levels, soldiers concentrated in high-germ-transmission conditions on ships and in barracks, and
limited medical care availability especially during times of peak need when available facilities were overwhelmed. On the other hand, in 2009 we have a larger population density worldwide, more global travel & exchange of germs, and much higher proportion of the population in the highly-vulnerable group with age > 65. Regardless, even with modern medical care, a 1918-1919 style flu would kill millions worldwide. (For comparison: Normal influenza kills an estimated 250,000 to 500,000 each year already.)
Definitions Used Here:
Historical Example #1 -- 1918-1919 Flu Pandemic (worldwide):
Historical Example #2 -- 1957 & 1968 Flu pandemics (worldwide):
Current Situation, based on news reports scanned as of 4/27 at 12:00 US PDT:
Mexico 2009:
Note: There is not enough official information yet to determine whether the 2009 flu is, or is not, as bad as 1918/1957/1968. But the ratio of reported deaths to reported hospitalizations is distressingly high, and the anecdotal reports published by the BBC yesterday from medical professionals in Mexico were also distressing. Mexican authorities today stated that about 1000 of the 1995 people hospitalized had gone home (presumably cured). With the 149 stated deaths, one presumes 850 of the 2000 known cases are still in the hospitals. All the numbers are increasing strongly on a daily basis so we appear to be still in the exponential-growth phase.
World 2009 (projections assuming globalization of influenza in Mexico):
to as high as 500,000,000 (if high end of 1919 estimates)
I'd appreciate feedback, and if there is interest I will update and repost this as events progress.
For what it's worth, we had an unusually nasty set of lung infections and/or acute asthma sweep through where we live (San Francisco Bay Area) a month or two ago. Many people I know had a nasty cough for 3-4 weeks or more. I've never had an asthmatic reaction in my life until this time. Both my children (ages 4 and 7) had asthmatic reactions; for one child it was the only asthma event in the past couple of years. My wife is still recovering. I do not know if this is related or not, but the possible intersection of a nasty flu with this other lung-damaging medical hazard is unsettling to us here.
Wisdom Speaker
Comment from my friend the RN:
"Remember the Hong Kong flu?? Must have been around 1967-68. The thing that was most striking to me about that flu was that the demographic was the same as you have cited here. It was young adults that were the most severely affected. I was working as an inservice coordinator at St. Alexis Hospital in Cleveland at the time and watched in horror as young people succumbed to the virus.
"If the age range continues to hold true than somewhere in the past 60 years or so, we have experienced a similar virus - to which older people have an immunity but younger people have none. "
If I were 20 today, I would be looking for a piece of unimproved land that I could buy with cash, and then get a cheap travel trailer to live in until I could afford to build a house with cash. No debt.
glad everyone liked the link. With the median unemployment at 11 weeks, St. Louis Fed: Series: UEMPMED, Median Duration of Unemployment
, a job loss would bankrupt (by their own estimation of savings and expenses) even 51% of the most fortified "silent generation" (ranging up to 81% of "Gen Y"). Job loss or income reductions are game changers. Demographic changes mean squat when it is one big group of no savings, no house, and will take any work available (the majority who go on unemployment now exhaust the twice extended benefits). The older population will liquidate their homes for cash, faster than the younger population will have the desire and means to buy the homes.
"All it takes is one geopolitical event."
I can feel it coming. Like just before a big rainstorm. Reminds me of last September. Lots of "containment" talk, without using those actual words now that they are a euphemism for collapse. Plus, the bottom calling seems to have reached new highs. Not that CNBC ever stops, but Cramer drawing his line in the sand, just screams at me that we are in for another leg down.
Re Bay Area asthma etc... The last month is the peak time for pollen allergies too which have the same symptoms...
Whoa! Those graphs are hypnotic (I like 'em
).
ShadowInventory
If you were 20 today, you would find a vacant house in some development full of identical homes, and squat in it. Better yet, if you had no in demand skills, you would start a company that looks after maintenance of vacant homes and choose one of the properties you manage to live in.
Tim-
I think it was CR who made the analogy of the baby boomers were causing an effect on the animated graph like "a pig moving through a python"--
The Stone Heads refer to Easter Island, and the delusion of an committed ideology and denial of resource limitations, with the tribe(there were 12) with the largess Stone Head's having the greatest social prestige.
Re unemployment - Many people who get on unemployment benefits draw for the maximum time, not getting motivated to look for on the books work until their benefits are running out... Many people who are drawing benefits also find some way to supplement their income with some kind of cash business - craigslist, working for cash etc...
Nice animated graph, CR. I might have to steal it! (The idea, not the graph.)
I don't know if this was discussed on an earlier thread, but I just read over at Zero Hedge that Air Force One did a fly by of Manhattan today for a photo op, but they didn't bother to tell anyone ahead of time. Apparently caused some panic (office workers evacuated their buildings). I guess it doesn't matter who is running the Federal government, they are stuck on stupid.
Zero Hedge: NY Air Traffic Controllers Obviously Did Not Get The Memo
Union guy slamming bank shill on CNBC. Fantastic.
boomers will be net sellers of houses for a decade.
the home ownership rate graph will change to reflect this.
as a group, they have no cash.
jobs going going gone.
they will sell what they can.
the smart ones will sell at a smaller discount today.
Sweet moving graphs CR ! ! !
Nemo (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 4/27/2009 - 3:53 pm
Well sure, but do these charts account for the effect of the swine flu?
The problem is the word 'swine'. If we instead called it the porcine flu, we'd be a lot less panicked.
CNBC will never have a union rep. again. Smackdown.
" Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 4/27/2009 - 1:01 pm
The difference here is that the 40-60 crowd has a significant portion of their savings in their Home. Unlike their Depression era parents.""""
yeh, like 2/3.
that equity we jokingly call savings was cream that has now been wiped out by the real estate collapse.
Can I catch the flu from the mortgage pig? Yikes. Maybe I better get him off my computer screen.
@Shadow "Re Bay Area asthma etc... The last month is the peak time for pollen allergies too which have the same symptoms..."
I agree, and that's quite possibly what happened, but we'd never experienced it this way as a family in the previous 9 Bay Area spring pollen seasons. And my wife, who has been ill for about 2 months now, definitely has something worse than allergies going on.
However, that's not really the point of what I wrote. I was hoping to point out with detail the potential seriousness of the influenza outbreak and the fact that certain subpopulations will need to take it more seriously due to specific health issues.
Mexico has cancelled all schools for at least the next 8 days.
"Union guy slamming bank shill on CNBC. Fantastic."
Remember when we used to export actual products, instead of paper? I suspect that this is the battle that the bankers do not want to fight. If BK is good enough for GM, why not for C and company?
Mayor Bloomberg didn't miss his photo-op to slam the DoD.
I'm pre-boomer,born in the 30s. I feel curiously detached.
Didn't catch the union. Shill was defending bonuses and CEO pay. I'll post the link later when they put it up. Can't stand CNBC but stuck where I am.
If BK is good enough for GM, why not for C and company
I'd be happy if banks and IBs were forced to clean up their balance sheets by debt->equity cramdown the same way as GM bondholders were.
If this had happened, not a dime of taxpayer money would be needed, nor any of these liquidity facilities.
Wisdom: Yes, please do update. That nasty infection swept through our area, too, about six weeks ago. We are surrounded by factory farms and we get unexplained severe illnesses all the time. Really weird stuff I've never seen in the other places I've lived. I've always suspected the huge producers might have something to do with it. Been waiting for a bug to make the species leap here.
Here in Greece where I live (an American expat of 30 yrs), the phenomenon in the last 30 yrs was fueled by folks turning over their property to a developer who turned a one-family house into a five-storey building giving the family two apartments and taking the rest--much ground floor space and below-ground were commercial. This has played out over the last generation as the extra apartment (condo) went as dowry to the daughter and now there is nothing left to leverage. Lots of fully owned apartments (condos or flats, depending on what term works for you) but a dismal scene for those 18-35 or so. There is no more to leverage
I recall being surprised at the ads in bank windows a few years ago of 3.95% int mortgages in Swiss Francs and wondering how anyone here could calculate the exchange rate a few years down the line.
Some of this might explain some of the differences between the US and some of Europe, but country by country the situations are so disparate, I have no real idea--think Eastern Europe mortgages in SF or Euros, Germany and a few other countries with rental still the way most folks live.
Back to the compound meme, I spent Greek Easter in a huge villa (by my standards with six bedrooms, three baths on about ten acres with an extended family some of whom were absent--I would guess 5000+ sq ft with basement, but I am bad at these estimates, since we live in 700 sq ft). This was their summer house and getaway from the city. They refuse to sell anything to developers, but then they are local folks in agriculture and IT.
Wisdom,
There has been some flu, but the rains and warm weather made everything grow and bloom and then those big April winds hit. This meant VERY large amounts of pollen in the air. I think it was the worst I've seen in the Bay Area, but there have been other springs like this that have been bad too.
I don't think there is any connection to swine flu though.
Haralambos: Thanks for the interesting post about Greece. In Germany it's hard to find land to build on unless it's been in the family a long time. Wonder what dynamic was driving this particular Greek solution? In Germany, they mean to keep their ag land & forests and development in those areas is downright discouraged.
On to the next thread...
@Morgage Pig Flu -
I agree, it's unlikely that this odd spring allergy / respiratory thing is directly connected to the flu. But if you're already suffering from the one, adding on a raging viral infection may be more hazardous than the virus would be by itself...
Moving on fully to future threads...
What is also striking about the first graph is the increase in home ownership among young adults, those under 30 years of age. Maybe I'm a bad example, but I was unable to afford to buy a home in my 20's. Was I the only flibbertgibbert when in their 20's? Since when did young adults in their 20's determine they'd really prefer to be tied down with mortgage payments?
Something perhaps worth checking: what is a home?
There has been a shift towards 'ownership' of retirement homes among the elderly, these could well correspond to what was an apartment rental or room in a nursing home in earlier eras. While this is probably a plus for net new construction it may not translate into a positive for the inventory of traditional homes.
@Wisdom Speaker
Interesting. A month ago my family of 4 in the BA also all came down with asthma at once, I couldn't figure out why.
We're better now, thanks.
Great animation of the demographic profile, CR. ANy chance of an time extension using Census Bureau projections? Things get scary pensions-wise as the proportion of seniors in the population zooms up between now and 2030.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/FEDS/2007/200701/200701pap.pdf
Saw data last winter (sorry, no link) suggesting broad disinterest in young people in home ownership. Not as a measure of affordability, but of cultural preference for in-city, mobile living.
Bad news for Boomers stuck with decaying suburban debt shacks...
Housing of the young seems to have declined according to this source
http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/workingpapers/wp2009_01.pdf
From the abstract:"We document that home ownership of households with \heads" aged 25-
44 years fell substantially between 1980 and 2000 and recovered only partially
during the 2001-2005 housing boom. The 1980-2000 decline in young home
ownership occurred as improvements in mortgage opportunities made it easier
to purchase a home. This paper uses an equilibrium life-cycle model calibrated
to micro and macro evidence to understand why young home ownership fell
over a period when it became easier to own a home. Our findings indicate
that a trend toward marrying later and the increase in household earnings risk
that occurred after 1980 account for 3/5 to 4/5 of the decline in young home
ownership."