Meh. The market is forward looking, so things will undoubtedly be awesome in six months. I heard it on CNBC. A P/E of 20 sounds right for a sideways economy, eh? BTW, FD, I'm 60% cash, 20% short, and bitter.
from the interview: "It's hard to see where recovery comes from. Almost always the way a country recovers from a financial crisis is with an export boom. The problem is that we have a global crisis this time. So who are we going to export to, unless we find another planet to take our stuff?"
In small towns we get through the tough times by taking in each others laundry. This week I do my dentist's, next week the accountant's, then the lawyer's. It's a vicious circle. Ergo, let's export some crap to China, they export some crap to Europe, and then we take Europe's crap. We make some journal entries and call it a day.
Retail sales seem to be holding up pretty well. Has any economist figured out how much extra money is sloshing around because people aren't paying their mortgages and property tax? Seems to me that's the new MEW.
dr munch: retail sales are holding up because the proletariat are swimming in a warm bath of sweetened water, courtesy of no information and denial (not my problemitis)
Has Krugman forgotten the imports part of the GDP equation? If you either buy less of everything, or it costs less in your currency, GDP can rise with no other economic changes. This is currently happening with oil.
Problem is, there is no particular reason why it will go on for any period of time.
Another effect, even more subtle, is if you are importing investment dollars. If you are borrowing them, you are running up debt to increase consumption or investment. However, money can come in directly as investment. You might also see a big reduction in remittances and donation to overseas. Some countries have a remarkable part of their national income derived from their citizens employed overseas sending money home (e.g., El Salvador, Nicaragua, the Philippines). However, this effect is small compared to the price of oil dropping by more than half.
dr munch, traffic and sales at a restaurant and nightclub with which I'm familiar is way up YOY. Owner insists everyone has more disposable income precisely because they are no longer paying the mortgage or have already doubled up with someone.
Part of me thinks that an L-shaped recession profile should be welcomed, rather than worried about. Until there are meaningful new economic drivers, the only way we get an upslope on the recovery is by blowing another bubble. I don't think that's a healthy way to reallocate capital! (After all, it was fear of the "L" after the dot-com bubble that got us into this huge mess!)
I'd rather see an L, with economic sustainability developing at healthier debt levels with limited room for mindless speculation -- thus giving everyone a new baseline to evaluate against -- followed by a long steady climb due to beneficial investment.
Meanwhile, in the flu department, I now worry about political overreactions and nations using this as a reason/excuse to impair trade even further. From Reuters:
"Russia imposed curbs on meat imports from Mexico, some U.S. states and the Caribbean, while the United Arab Emirates said it was considering similar action."
I am a not the least bit sad to hear about an "L-shaped" recession. Of course, I have a job! But, I live in an area where everybody and his brother is trying to build that special second or third vacation home and is turning this beautiful area in North Idaho into a huge gated community: rich outsiders and poor locals. Screw 'em all! The past year has been glorious! All those big fancy developments have stopped in their tracks. The local golf course, which converted into a fancy members-only place is now in bankruptcy. No more stinking Hollywood stars gracing us with their presence. GO AWAY!
There's also another round of Refi's going on, for those lucky few who bought before the boom and whose mortgages (now) fit within the conforming limit.
"Has any economist figured out how much extra money is sloshing around because people aren't paying their mortgages and property tax?"
Remember that isn't exactly "savings" or "extra money". Someone was expecting to receive it. If it was actually paid, someone else would have it. In the case of local governments, they would spend it. In the case of investors, they would spend some of it (e.g., pension funds and individual investors), but they would also save or reinvest a lot of it.
The largest overall effect for the borrower is not paying mortgages increases their consumption. That person might also be paying down other bills, such as high interest credit cards, or investing.
More consumption than otherwise, paid for by reducing the value of other people's savings and investment. That happens at least four ways. 1. Not receiving expected payments. 2. Loss on foreclosure sale. 3. Reduction of the value of securities. 4. Independently reducing asset values by pulling leverage out of the system.
I'd rather see an L, with economic sustainability developing at healthier debt levels with limited room for mindless speculation -- thus giving everyone a new baseline to evaluate against -- followed by a long steady climb due to beneficial investment.
Lefty: man oh man, the stories we could tell. It's one of the reasons we all keep pretty much to ourselves. The appearance of normal is everything. Style over substance and all that. Sort of like planting a garden with tools one has only recently been introduced to.
Miss Michelle, meet Mr. Shovel. Say hello. Now, turn it over and put the wide metal end against the ground. Now step firmly on the little ledge. Either one will do. Now press down on the handle and turn the dirt over. What? Oh! Okay, have your Secret Service guy do that.
Wiley Coyote wipes his brow and breathes a sigh of relief.
I'm going to use this phrase to make fun of bottom callers like Krugman. If you read carefully he does what all economists who got lucky and have a reputation worth defending do. He talks like Greenspan. He doesn't say when the bottom will occur or at what level. For that you need a laurel wreath on your head? “Life is a tale told by an idiot -- full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”
Excerpt: Q: What affect do you expect the Obama stimulus to have on the economy?
A: The policy is a mitigating policy, it's not about promoting recovery, despite the name. It is about diminishing the depth of the slump, and since there still will be a slump, how do you judge how it's working? But you probably will see ... visible growth that turns positive for a few quarters. But there really are no safe havens now, except maybe in the repo business.
How how politic of him. He needs to decide which side he is on.
Some investor guy: I realize that there isn't "extra money" from not paying mortgage/prop tax. The problem is it's just more unrealized losses for the bank.
The banks get more insolvent every day, the big ones just make their quarterly numbers look good with trading/accounting. Housing's continuing drop will kill the banks eventually. These Cum By Ya stress tests are a joke.
Along with Roubini, I think most large banks are insolvent. If you take the CA, FL, NV, and AZ home equity loans + second mortgages + retained first mortgages*.3 and it's more than shareholder equity, you have an extremely vulnerable bank.
some investor guy (profile) wrote on Sun, 4/26/2009 - 8:00 am reply
"Has any economist figured out how much extra money is sloshing around because people aren't paying their mortgages and property tax?"
Remember that isn't exactly "savings" or "extra money". Someone was expecting to receive it.
And I expect a new aspect to this period of full employment for lawyers; Forcing banks to complete foreclosure proceedings. Being listed as the owner and not just the lien holder is necessary to make the market clearing actions necessary for everyone to move on.
Export to another planet.
Don't give Geithner any ideas. He'll set up an ABS exchange on Mars.
Don't need Mars, just need a "phantom" (totally intangible) financial sector here on earth to/from which we can exchange endless streams of "paper wealth". Oh wait, we already did that...
@Dawg: Yes, Krugman's Nobel Prize may have been the worst thing that happened to him, because now he's too much of a public figure and has to watch what he says too closely. If the Committee ever calls me, I'll say "No thanks!".
If we apply this logic to our Secretary of Energy, who also has a Nobel Prize ...
"in nervous convulsion crouches infant ape trembling in mothers shit
cage eyes tear less filled with contempt clinic mask experiment with
life and death smell lingering noxious mixed scent anxiety omnipotent doctor
grinds the cage door revealing loves primal instinct taken away the tiny
face terrified rant and rave smash your head against the cage vacuum
clicks on high conscious of the pain pass off as humane white coat seems
so clean most dirt bleached out of greed force the point of habit eyes burn
in a rabbit push the pain test button spines cut trip mucous inflection
more die. pills each day what goes around comes back stronger tap into
the brain break the skull again smash price research rat lab rent pain
in flesh more ill drug store sales sharpen the knife emphasis on money
new disease everyday end is seen and coming reseach turns it's back
to gain crush the spine genocide kitten drags its dead limb continuing
all suffering it will come back and win shock paralyse turn trauma
burns out the will to live the lying message 5 year genocide 1945 suicide"
vivisect vi
skinny puppy
I was thinking of selling a few things on Craigs List this week when it struck me this is the prefect tool for an underground economy. The prostitutes have it all figured out of course, but I wonder how much cash from more conventional deals is involved. It's free to list and there is no record of what, if anything, you sold. There isn't any need for commercial space since buyers will come to your door.
Low overhead, no taxes, no bad debts; what more could an entrepreneur want
"There are two kinds of recessions that are bad - those that take place because of financial crises, and those that are synchronized around the world," he said. "In both cases, the recessions tend to last longer and be deeper."
And why is that? Go on, Krugs, say it, "because the Austrian model of the credit cycle is the correct one."
you dont have to worry about a collapse this year. the fed is willing to spend 15-20 trillion in the next couple years to keep the too big banks solvent. imo, it will bite us back in about a year or two.... we will see collapsing property even more.... more unemployment, depressed wages... and thats when these too big to fail will really fail at that point we will wish we could be japanese but will be closer to that movie children of men.
mock turtle @ 8:17 am
Good one... I see a 'synclinal economic recovery' Syncline - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia and have a degree in geology but moved to new endeavors yr ago
I was going to buy a TV at best buy, but look at craigslist instead. Got a 37" Vizio, brank new in the box, from a company approved "wholesaler" in an industrial park. $499 (comp at best buy $750), no tax, no recycling fee, saved over $300. Not sure if Tony Soprano found it in a parked truck, but who cares.
in many areas, the value of the foreclosed homes will be so low that banks will frequently take tax deductions by donating them. I have seen this in property records in CA from the 1990s. It was also done with raw or entitled land.
you dont have to worry about a collapse this year. the fed is willing to spend 15-20 trillion in the next couple years to keep the too big banks solvent.
Only in a system devoid of externalities. How long can we keep raising capital before we starve someone important to our context out of the sov debt market? IMO, ceteris paribus, we're gonna suck all the air out of the room til we prompt capital controls or a failure to borrow that casts the whole system as invalid.
So now that we've got Krugman straightened out, can someone please explain to me why California Muni Bonds soard this past couple of weeks? Not that I'm complaining, but I'd like to know why...
i really wouldnt be surprised to see a rally to 10000 and 1000 in the snp and dji by summer. you have to remember the fed is committing trillions of taxpayer writeoff on the too big to fail. i actually bought some citi and boa early april (and sold a few days ago) made some good money, ultimately, like the original gd... we will likely need a war to get us out... a big one. im not advocating a ww3, just wouldnt suprirse me that one is created. either way the big banks dont want to pay for any losses, and obama is glad to oblige. kick the can to war or collapse.
Downtown LA is already there. At 8pm on Saturday night at Provecho, a highly rated restaurant in 800 block of Wilshire, the dining room is 80% empty, the bar is 100% empty, and ceviche bar is 100% empty . After dinner we drop by Remedy, the adjacent hotties-only boite which baits its entrance two drop-dead beautiful hostesses in minimal black dresses. They look at us hopefully. We look inside: there is one (count 'em 1) other couple in the bar. When drop-dead beautiful women look at me hopefully, you know things are really really bad.
but im a fair macro guy and i pay attention to fundamentals like concentration of wealth , ballance of trade, currency exchange rates, corporate debt, us debt, and consumer debt, and much more
so many, if not all, the fundamentals look so bad that i have become very very pessimistic
plus we are facing a host of problems like population, environmental and resource issues, even clean water!!! that loom up ahead like a monster that awaits us
Wisdom Speaker (profile) wrote on Sun, 4/26/2009 - 8:26 am reply
So now that we've got Krugman straightened out, can someone please explain to me why California Muni Bonds soard this past couple of weeks? Not that I'm complaining, but I'd like to know why...
There's an implicit Federal guarantee (backstop?) now. Nothing but a repeat of Fannie/Freddie two years ago. Times 20.
The danger is political. California has a "special election" scheduled next month. As it is now every one that includes tax increases is failing. The entire nation will wake up Wed May 20th to the equivalent of France going bankrupt.
April 26 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy will continue to contract “for some time to come,” said Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council.
“I expect the economy will continue to decline,” with “sharp declines in employment for quite some time this year,” Summers said today on “Fox News Sunday.”</i?
The bankruptcy proceedings of General Motors and Chrysler, both of which seem imminent, will have devastating effects on the pensions of people throughout all industries in the nation, even though that may not be show immediately. Of course this shouldn't be that much of a surprise in a society in which many millions already scrape out a (non-)living with no pension whatsoever flipping each other's burgers or greeting each other at the doorsteps of Wal-Mart branches. Still, there will be a point when people finally will wake up long enough from their diabetic slumbers to understand that what they lose in pension funds is lost only because the choice is consciously being made to transfer it to the accounts of bankrupt institutions controlled by the very people who do the transferring.
We're starting to insult ourselves pretending we're in just a financial crisis. One look at the reasons why we're here tells us we're in much deeper waters.
-- Automatic Earth
some investor guy (profile) wrote on Sun, 4/26/2009 - 8:25 am reply
Rob, in many areas, the value of the foreclosed homes will be so low that banks will frequently take tax deductions by donating them. I have seen this in property records in CA from the 1990s. It was also done with raw or entitled land.
This time it will depend upon the municipalities. I'm sure you've noticed that the bureaucracy at the local level in California has in the last 15-20 years gotten extremely hostile and officious. If they hold on and insist on tax arrears and penalties in full it could get ugly with masses of properties stuck in decades long limbo. Yeah, that'll help.
Why does summers still think that we live in the old world? We may never come out of this mess unless we change our path rather quickly.. but I do not think the PTB will like that
April 26 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy will continue to contract “for some time to come,” said Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council.
“I expect the economy will continue to decline,” with “sharp declines in employment for quite some time this year,” Summers said today on “Fox News Sunday.”
The rest of the nation may be getting back to basics, but on Wall Street, paychecks still come with a golden promise.
Workers at the largest financial institutions are on track to earn as much money this year as they did before the financial crisis began, because of the strong start of the year for bank profits.
Even as the industry’s compensation has been put in the spotlight for being so high at a time when many banks have received taxpayer help, six of the biggest banks set aside over $36 billion in the first quarter to pay their employees, according to a review of financial statements.
You need to realize that not everyone is in trouble in this economy.
About 1/3 of household do not any mortgage payment. These are people who did not participate in recent recklessness and have lots mony, probably no debt at all.
HISTORICAL stock charts seem to show that it took more than 25 years for the market to recover from the 1929 crash — a dismal statistic that has been brought to investors’ attention many times in the current downturn.
But a careful analysis of the record shows that the picture is more complex and, ultimately, far less daunting: An investor who invested a lump sum in the average stock at the market’s 1929 high would have been back to a break-even by late 1936 — less than four and a half years after the mid-1932 market low.
by brother was an oil geologist for a small exploratory company 20 years ago
more recently he supervises a team of hydrologists at the US geologic survey
he says that there is a better than even chance we will see 1 or 2 wars around the planet fought over access to fresh water
and even here in the usa some of the great aquafers (like the ogallala which provides ground water for people in parts of 8 states!...) are being seriously depleted and or poluted
wawawa said, These are people who did not participate in recent recklessness and have lots mony, probably no debt at all.
And do you think this means they are unaffected, or "not in trouble"?
Unfortunately, those folks have seen their wealth stored in stocks and real estate plunge. They also are facing the same hefty tax increases that are inevitably in our future.
In many areas, the value of the foreclosed homes will be so low that banks will frequently take tax deductions by donating them. I have seen this in property records in CA from the 1990s. It was also done with raw or entitled land.
Interesting. Do they just get the charitable deduction for the FMV of the property or can they also deduct the loss on the excess of their basis over FMV?
Krugman has a terrible record as a forecaster. One that he is at least honest enough to admit to. That Krugman thinks this will be an L recession is a good argument for optimism given his own dismal past track record.
on late comments some very interesting discourse on viruses.... esp from Doc Holliday....
made my night...esp while sipping some Habana rum 3 year old anejo ... delicious!
off to Martini club (the girls... age wise? - follow Sam Nunn on this, don't ask dont' tell )
but I will keep the N1N1 virus in mind, sample question, do you live near pigs that's also close
to an orchard....
A cattleman told me in 1987 that the next civil war would be one fought over water. Think western states, California, as well as most of Dixie. That takes in a mighty big portion of our geography.
I wonder, how will those smart guys in NYC do when the lack of water hits the fan? Already, smart money is being positioned in companies like the one that controls most of the fresh water for Philadelphia and places all around. A German company was denied purchase of the water in Kentucky in 2002. Chattanooga is battling with N. Georgia.
The thing is, it won't matter much who 'owns' what. What will matter will be the resolve of the people involved to prevail. I can only imagine that desperate people will know the shortest distance between conflict and resolution.
The best thing that could happent to California is for it to go bankrupt. The state's constitution with its myriad layers of directed spending due to past amendments make it ungovernable regardless of which party is in control. Bankruptcy is the only exit path.
please let me disagree in part about krugman and his record of prognostications
primarily he has not been a marketeer ...hes an academic who has specialize in understanding and theorizing about the dynamics of international trade
but he has predicted problems that lay ahead, and solutions, and often been right
from wikipedia
"...Krugman has also been influential in the field of international finance economics.
In 1979 he published a model of currency crises in the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking showing that fixed exchange rate regimes are unlikely to end smoothly: instead, they end in a sudden speculative attack.
Krugman's paper is considered one of the main contributions to the 'first generation' of currency crisis models.[21]
Krugman predicted problems with the fixed exchange rates in East and Southeast Asia, and Thailand's economic policies before the 1997 East Asian financial crisis,
and also criticized investors such as Long-Term Capital Management whose profits depended on the maintenance of fixed exchange rates prior to the 1998 Russian financial crisis.
He also advocated aggressive fiscal policy to counter Japan's economic depression in the 1990s, arguing that the country was mired in a Keynesian liquidity trap.[22]"
mt, I appreciate your posting that Corrente link, for manifold reasons.
I do not have an informed opinion of Krugman's work (either pop or serious work).
But we have seen over the past couple decades how arguments are framed, how problems are deferred, and how otherwise "informed people" can become complacent when they think their champion is on the case, if you know what I mean.
from wiki cited by mt: "Krugman predicted problems with the fixed exchange rates in East and Southeast Asia, and Thailand's economic policies before the 1997 East Asian financial crisis"
In Asia, this was a real eyebrow raiser at the time. Too bad it wasn't an eye opener. Got to give him credit.
There will be many champions. In times of crisis strongmen surface, gain a following and ultimately screw things up just like the managerial types. The complexity of our system coupled with the diversity of our opinions will result in a change some will hail and others will decry. We're not even close yet, but there are some green shoots appearing on the event horizon. Closer examination when more is revealed will give some idea what the outcome will be. I, for one, am enjoying this. It is a time not unlike others I have lived through. I remain optimistic.
Worried about an "L" shaped recession. Isn't that like asking the doctor whether you'll be able to play the violin after a car crash that has crushed both your arms,...and you never learned how in the first place? Wish he worry about the triage.
"BILL MOYERS: Bill Black was in New York this week for a conference at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice where scholars and journalists gathered to ask the question, "How do they get away with it?" Well, no one has asked that question more often than Bill Black.
The former Director of the Institute for Fraud Prevention now teaches Economics and Law at the University of Missouri, Kansas City. During the savings and loan crisis, it was Black who accused then-house speaker Jim Wright and five US Senators, including John Glenn and John McCain, of doing favors for the S&L's in exchange for contributions and other perks. The senators got off with a slap on the wrist, but so enraged was one of those bankers, Charles Keating — after whom the senate's so-called "Keating Five" were named — he sent a memo that read, in part, "get Black — kill him dead." Metaphorically, of course. Of course.
Now Black is focused on an even greater scandal, and he spares no one — not even the President he worked hard to elect, Barack Obama. But his main targets are the Wall Street barons, heirs of an earlier generation whose scandalous rip-offs of wealth back in the 1930s earned them comparison to Al Capone and the mob, and the nickname "banksters."
We can only win this war if we find the swine and destroy their strongholds before they develop more biological agents to menace our way of life. Ultimately, we must achieve pork-independence, perhaps by development and implementation of pork-renewables.
he says that there is a better than even chance we will see 1 or 2 wars around the planet fought over access to fresh water
I call BS - What's cheaper, fighting a huge war over water or building a ton of nuke desalination plants and conserving water via hydroponic skyscrapers? If a 400 gallon reserve tank is all you need for an indoor wheat field, you have no water problem.
v v said : I, for one, am enjoying this. It is a time not unlike others I have lived through. I remain optimistic.
Me neither Buckwheat.
which is what I'm prone to say when I'm hopefully flummoxed.
Problem is that I, along with the rest of the economically active universe (excluding monks and nuns here), have to make money decisions every day. And I'm well flummoxed.
Hoopajoops LTD (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 4/26/2009 - 11:57 am
* reply
he says that there is a better than even chance we will see 1 or 2 wars around the planet fought over access to fresh water
I call BS - What's cheaper, fighting a huge war over water or building a ton of nuke desalination plants and conserving water via hydroponic skyscrapers? If a 400 gallon reserve tank is all you need for an indoor wheat field, you have no water problem.
Well, good for you. Of course, you could be wrong.
And the water problem, mock turtle, is immediate and compelling. Think third world? You mean like Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee? Or, Los Angeles and the San Joachin Valley?
It doesn't really matter whether it is cheaper to build desal plants (I doubt it, tho) or go to war. It is much more important to follow the money-who benefits and who has the pull to make it happen.
Wisdom Speaker (profile) wrote on Sun, 4/26/2009 - 7:56 am
Part of me thinks that an L-shaped recession profile should be welcomed, rather than worried about. Until there are meaningful new economic drivers, the only way we get an upslope on the recovery is by blowing another bubble. I don't think that's a healthy way to reallocate capital! (After all, it was fear of the "L" after the dot-com bubble that got us into this huge mess!)
I'd rather see an L, with economic sustainability developing at healthier debt levels with limited room for mindless speculation -- thus giving everyone a new baseline to evaluate against -- followed by a long steady climb due to beneficial investment.
For some time I've been asking optimists, "So what will end this recession?" The answer is almost always the sound of crickets in an empty barn. But I entirely agree with the scenario above. I also think that "beneficial investment" can and should be guided socially, to things that increase societal wealth -- cheap, renewable energy, cheaper and more efficient healthcare, etc. Because the last time, all we got was SUVs and badly built homes in the wasteland.
What is the ramp up time to have in place all the infrastructure to use technology as a solution? When you start charging 50 cents to a dollar a gallon at the tap of homes/apartments/condos/businesses, which some have considered as possible (even probable when the inflation bear gets his bitch on) then the blow back will be palpable. Really, folk, who amongst us truly believes it will be simple?
Of course, the pols will pontificate that we the people must once again pay up for the greater common weal. And the massive infrastructure necessary will benefit whom? City folk in places most only read about or stare at through the idiot box. Won't that be interesting.
Krugman has been right about some aspects of the d-r-ep-ecession and wrong about others, but it is hard to see his thinking on this one. Of course it will be L-shaped. It is NOT a recession, it is a bursting bubble.
If you look at GDP curves, personal spending curves, credit level curves it is obvious you have to chop off the bubble part to see where things 'really' were. It is simply foolish to think that we are going to 'recover' to a bubble high.
The price of tulips never did recover.
Volker, it takes 4 years to make a nuke plant, mass producing them can cut that time down. 50 cents to a dollar a gallon is a number you just made up, and it's nowhere near what nuke desal would cost. Nuke plants generate heat and steam with extreme efficiency. Nuke desal for the first world can easily satisfy our residential water requirements in case of shortage, and with some basic restructuring it could also do our ag. Even if water were ridiculously priced at 50 cents to a dollar a gallon, that's about 10 bucks a day on extreme restrictive use, quite doable for most in our country.
TPTB have been beating the drums that no other big bank will be allowed to fail because of Lehman as an example. How convenient an excuse justifying the continual rape of the taxpayer. Lehman is a sacrificial lamb for the continued pillaging of our pocketbooks.
I say Lehman is an example of how big banks should be allowed to fail and I'm not buying into their brainwashing that the taxpayer must save all other big institutions because of another Lehman happening. Screw them, lets have lots more Lehman type failures.
While we're at discussing time frames, consider that many nuclear plants take decades for the permitting process. Of course, some sort of breakthrough is possible, such as cold fusion. Then the entire paradigm is changed.
I would wonder without optimism about the probability of families tolerating existence on 10 or 20 gallons a day. Not happening.
wally wrote:
"Of course it will be L-shaped. It is NOT a recession, it is a bursting bubble."
Exactly. Then there's the insane talk of returning to normal ?!? What is normal ? unsustainable levels of consumer debt ? LBO's based on grossly unrealistic profit projections ? Never-ending appreciation of real estate ? etc.etc.
Talking heads from both sides are CFR member divide and conker control freak agents. They both have a specific job to do keeping the populous divided into an even 50/50 split. They are very good at what they do so the populous cannot form a consensus on on how to remove the entrenched public officials and disrupt the elite power base. It's quite fascinating how it works really.
While we're at discussing time frames, consider that many nuclear plants take decades for the permitting process.
Things change. Paper is thin. If there's a real need, the permitting process will be months rather than years. That's why I said 4 years to build a nuclear power plant.
I would wonder without optimism about the probability of families tolerating existence on 10 or 20 gallons a day. Not happening.
Then they'll burn shit down. What are they going to do, riot some water out of the sky? Water or lack of water is kind of a basic fact, hard to really blame your politicians for a lack of sky god mana, that's kind of out of the human realm.
I'm not so sure about this future you're envisioning, where the need for water is so desperate and the population is on a breaking point where it "will not tolerate" necessary rationing, but on the flipside somehow we're in a state of total paralysis and can't seem to manage to figure out how to get a nuclear plant permitted in under a decade. This is a strange, terrible world you conceive of, containing many intractable contradictions.
L shaped? I remember that being dismissed awhile ago. I thought it was a W bottom?
When the economy gets to the bottom and begins that right hand turn what will be left?
We can export water by exporting grains.
In ten to 15 years maybe we will have manufactured products that can be sold. Other than the big name Boeing, Cat, whatever.
The US might actually have a few cars the world might be interested in. Software integrated with hardware, perhaps solar or windbased.
Interesting, I saw that China is building what looked like a Rolls Royce clone for one sixth the price. That sums up the problem to me. How do you compete and pay a decent wage?
Good for you, too. Wow. Are you good at this stuff, or what?
Oh snap, and with that constructive comment, we've found a test case for my new greasemonkey ignore script. If a volker trolls in the woods and nobody hears it, does he exist?
25% of our antiviral stockpile, wow, that's like what, 10,000 doses of tamiflu? Stunning, stunning deployment of resources after the pandemic has passed a stage of easy containment. We are really, really screwed.
"They are very good at what they do so the populous cannot form a consensus on on how to remove the entrenched public officials and disrupt the elite power base. It's quite fascinating how it works really."
Michael, they're just talking..... dis-entrench yourself!
hoopajoops writes: "I'm not so sure about this future you're envisioning..."
Neither am I. When considering possibilities, many sides must be probed. Of course, as you possess a certainty above investigation, you may feel free to ignore whatever I post. I'm used to it. I have children who do that all the time.
Swine flu: U.S. declares public health emergency as precaution
The action allows government easier access to medications and flu tests. In Mexico, five more deaths have been reported.
An L-shaped recovery is otherwise known as "a collapse." As in, no subsequent bubbles will be happening for a very long time.
I had to laugh the other day when I received some PR from a local business college. They kept referring to "the economic downturn." Meanwhile everyone else is on "recession" and most forward-thinking people have been on "depression" for some time, and still others are at "collapse."
Can't spell government without goons, I guess. Someone's got to spraypaint our doors, take away our weapons, herd us into stadiums, and loot our televisions. Otherwise it would be chaos.
BTW, anyone out there read Dmitry Orlov's "Reinventing Collapse"? I'm halfway through it. He is just spot on about everything. The book focuses on a comparison of the post-Soviet collapse in Russia (1980s and '90s) and how the man on the street got through it, and how fucked the U.S. is going to be by comparison, and (the good news) how you can adjust and cope. Not your average post-collapse "grow tomatoes and milk goats" treatise. Plus it's funny as hell.
From SARS experience, and for a final obvious comment of the night, I'm going to suggest that something like a pandemic, real or imagined, is a powerful pivot point.
But it's got to play out in all its glory before we get there.
It was obvious that the excitement of Mr. ... was triggered when mention was made of the nation's industry.
"We have been successful in dividing society against itself by pitting labor against management. (The social-labor movement, employing labor unions, a manipulation of wages and prices, and government regulation of business, was the brainchild of ---s such as Karl Marx and Samuel Gompers. The result was a destruction of free enterprise.) This perhaps has been one of our greatest feats, since in reality it is a triangle, though only two points ever seem to occur. In modern industry where exists capital, which force we represent, is the apex. Both management and labor are on the base of this triangle. They continually stand opposed to each other and their attention is never directed to the head of their problem. Management is forced to raise prices since we are ever increasing the cost of capital. Labor must have increasing wages and management must have higher prices, thus creating a vicious cycle. We are never called to task for our role which is the real reason for inflation, since the conflict between management and labor is so severe that neither has time to observe our activities. It is our increase in the cost of capital that causes the inflation cycle. We do not labor or manage, and yet we receive the profits. Through our money manipulation, the capital that we supply industry costs us nothing. Through our national bank, the Federal Reserve, we extend book credit, which we create from nothing, to all local banks who are member banks. They in turn extend book credit to industry. Thus, we do more than God, for all of our wealth is created from nothing. You look shocked! Don't be! It's true, we actually do more than God. With this supposed capital we bring industry, management and labor into our debt, which debt only increases and is never liquidated. Through this continual increase, we are able to pit management against labor so they will never unite and attack us and usher in a debt-free industrial utopia.
"We are the necessary element since we expend nothing. Management can create its own capital -- the profits. Its business would grow and profits increase. Labor would prosper as well, while the price of the product would remain constant, the prosperity of industry, labor and management would continually increase. We ---s glory in the fact that the stupid goy have never realized that we are the parasites consuming an increasing portion of production while the producers are continually receiving less and less."
Pontiac’s U.S. sales peaked at just a shade under 900,000 in 1978 — the year after the brand peaked in the popular consciousness when Burt Reynold drove a Trans Am to stardom in the hit film “Smokey and the Bandit.” Pontiac’s U.S. sales fell to 267,000 last year, and it currently accounts for about 2% of the U.S. car market and 11% of GM’s total sales.
PEAK then a 30 year decline. Sounds like US Real Estate
People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said China’s current-account surplus “‘will no longer be a serious problem” as the country’s economic-stimulus plan stokes domestic demand.
"We have been taught that our current economic practices are benevolent therefore Christian. These pulpit parrots extol our goodness for loaning them the money to build their temples, never realizing that their own holy book condemns all usury. They are eager to pay our exorbitant interest rates. They have led society into our control through the same practice. Politically, they hail the blessings of democracy and never understand that through democracy we have gained control of their nation. Their book (Notice that Mr. ... always refers to the Bible as their book) again teaches a benevolent despotic form of government in accordance with the laws of that book, while a democracy is mob rule which we control through their Churches, our news media and economic institutions. Their religion is only another channel through which we can direct the power of our propaganda. These religious puppets' stupidity is only exceeded by their cowardice, for they are ruled easily."
"Americns have not had a presidential choice since 1932. Roosevelt was our man; every president since Roosevelt has been our man."In a discussion about George Wallace, Mr. ... smiled and suggested that we note where Wallace stands today
Here are better links on Brainwashing techniques used on us. These techniques are not today used by Russia on us today but rather by people like the Buildeberg Group and other world ruling elite.
I was going to ask about your "Major surgery" but I did not want to ask you for anything that would violate the client - attorney. The stuff I come in contact with usually has a protective order issued meaning the Judge has decided that what is read, etc. can not be discussed with anyone who is not "approved" for lack of better word.
"We have been given certain... magical powers. The ability to confound the goy and trick him into believing that we are all-powerful despite our small numbers and unassuming demeanor. Our rituals are complex and esoteric, and involve intense study, stand up comedy, self-deprecating humor, getting bullied by our wives and mothers, and constantly fretting to the world at large about insignificant events and what they might inform us about the state of our physical and mental health."
"You know President Taft? We did that. His over-sized bathtub? That too. For centuries, Christians have been saddled by the yolk of our incomprehensible and nigh undetectable influence, all bent toward the ultimate plan of finding a nice Jewish man to marry, maybe a doctor or lawyer darling, someone with professional prospects. I don't mean to pry but Moshel the pharmacist has been eating alone lately, and while he isn't a looker he's definitely available. Why don't you ever call? It is so lonely here."
Jusa,
Thanks. A very sicinct description of what is really going on. Normal people cannot understand the meaning of the information you give.
"We ---s glory in the fact that the stupid goy have never realized that we are the parasites consuming an increasing portion of production while the producers are continually receiving less and less."
Goy are Gentiles easily fleeced by people I like to refer to as J-People.
Just this once, I leave the noodles in the water
An extra two minutes. The pasta, you say. Some people
Turn out picky that way: anything bitten
To the gums, to the point of refusal, gets questioned. Take
The water restrictions recently imposed.
The hose spews, undaunted, unquestioned. You,
You perch before the screen dimly lighting a room
Constructed of Asian artifacts, Ikea closeouts, and auction items
Unstuffed from one dollar box-lots--computing
Charts, numbers, quantify able elements. Understanding
Nothing and hoping for more, a ten X confidence
In a positive outcome. The story goes like this: The sole
Unmovable fact is, we are in this
Together, come rain or something less robust
Going forward. Undaunted. Un. Un. Une femme, ooo-lah-lah
One searches. What you will
Find here is a certain sort of lie. Peppers, perhaps too many, dangle
Heavy from all this, small, hot, the tip of a tongue
Flames for hours after. I’m quiet more often
Than not, biting mine and what’s mine to the last
Cell. More often I’m asleep or pretend to be. And nothing
Leaves, early, before Sunrise, not the birds
And their incessant chirping, trilling sexual songs,
For the birds—this whole, less clear.
Now the cloth, dusted with holy oil, prayed over, blessed,
Shipped next day air. Of all things in this room, space
Is more important than whatever we might imagine is, so
You say, given all things, holding all things,
"BTW, anyone out there read Dmitry Orlov's "Reinventing Collapse"?"
Our visiting IT guy did. The pity, he could not really explain how exactly "the end of the world" will look. Then he proceeded into 2012 Maya prediction, end of civilization & deer hunting.
It is so easy to believe into what you want to believe. It's much harder to conclude "I don't know" instead of making up views that represent your fears & wishes rather than the world as it is.
p.s. I had a good laugh that day.
So is that passport requirement helping the cross border shopping? Methinks Janet Napolitano needs some education on how we work together here in the Pacific Northwest.
Although to be fair, the Millennium bombers did get caught in Port Angeles when he panicked and ran...
Nomenclature Debate: Is the phrase, " 'L'-shaped Recovery" an easily-addicted-to misnomer?
Folks, it does not represent or signal any "Recovery"...the ‘L’ shape signals and represents a long traversing of the bumpy floor of a crater of unknown diameter.
I'd suggest we say 'L'-Shaped Descent instead. Or ‘L’-shaped Descent-then-Grope.
How apropos the uncertainty of the ‘L’-shape.
This debt-fueled economic re-structuring we’ve entered, kicking & screaming, has yet to signal what could replace the expired 25-yr experiment of a 300+ million-person nation attempting to operate on a GDP that is 70% driven by debt-enabled consumer spending. Therefore, the uncertainty signaled by the ‘L’-shaped Descent-then-Grope is perfect!
krugman just needs some taffy.
Morse, is that you?
I guess Google will have to add morse code to its list of translatable languages.
Meh. The market is forward looking, so things will undoubtedly be awesome in six months. I heard it on CNBC. A P/E of 20 sounds right for a sideways economy, eh? BTW, FD, I'm 60% cash, 20% short, and bitter.
Is L shaped recovery even an option? Can an economy that relies on cboom burst/consumer spending experience a L shapped recovery?
No, it's dotty, not morse.
I am afraid it might be a -shaped recovery (with reset to a new, lower steady state)
from the interview: "It's hard to see where recovery comes from. Almost always the way a country recovers from a financial crisis is with an export boom. The problem is that we have a global crisis this time. So who are we going to export to, unless we find another planet to take our stuff?"
In small towns we get through the tough times by taking in each others laundry. This week I do my dentist's, next week the accountant's, then the lawyer's. It's a vicious circle. Ergo, let's export some crap to China, they export some crap to Europe, and then we take Europe's crap. We make some journal entries and call it a day.
Retail sales seem to be holding up pretty well. Has any economist figured out how much extra money is sloshing around because people aren't paying their mortgages and property tax? Seems to me that's the new MEW.
fond memories of the Golden Age of Middle class America.....frugal is the new black !
dr munch: retail sales are holding up because the proletariat are swimming in a warm bath of sweetened water, courtesy of no information and denial (not my problemitis)
i want to pet him and give him taffy
Has Krugman forgotten the imports part of the GDP equation? If you either buy less of everything, or it costs less in your currency, GDP can rise with no other economic changes. This is currently happening with oil.
Problem is, there is no particular reason why it will go on for any period of time.
Another effect, even more subtle, is if you are importing investment dollars. If you are borrowing them, you are running up debt to increase consumption or investment. However, money can come in directly as investment. You might also see a big reduction in remittances and donation to overseas. Some countries have a remarkable part of their national income derived from their citizens employed overseas sending money home (e.g., El Salvador, Nicaragua, the Philippines). However, this effect is small compared to the price of oil dropping by more than half.
dr munch, traffic and sales at a restaurant and nightclub with which I'm familiar is way up YOY. Owner insists everyone has more disposable income precisely because they are no longer paying the mortgage or have already doubled up with someone.
So who has the dirtiest laundry? the lawyer or the accountants?
Part of me thinks that an L-shaped recession profile should be welcomed, rather than worried about. Until there are meaningful new economic drivers, the only way we get an upslope on the recovery is by blowing another bubble. I don't think that's a healthy way to reallocate capital! (After all, it was fear of the "L" after the dot-com bubble that got us into this huge mess!)
I'd rather see an L, with economic sustainability developing at healthier debt levels with limited room for mindless speculation -- thus giving everyone a new baseline to evaluate against -- followed by a long steady climb due to beneficial investment.
Meanwhile, in the flu department, I now worry about political overreactions and nations using this as a reason/excuse to impair trade even further. From Reuters:
"Russia imposed curbs on meat imports from Mexico, some U.S. states and the Caribbean, while the United Arab Emirates said it was considering similar action."
i'd take an l shape over a collapse any day!
I am a not the least bit sad to hear about an "L-shaped" recession. Of course, I have a job! But, I live in an area where everybody and his brother is trying to build that special second or third vacation home and is turning this beautiful area in North Idaho into a huge gated community: rich outsiders and poor locals. Screw 'em all! The past year has been glorious! All those big fancy developments have stopped in their tracks. The local golf course, which converted into a fancy members-only place is now in bankruptcy. No more stinking Hollywood stars gracing us with their presence. GO AWAY!
Long live the Great Recession!
There's also another round of Refi's going on, for those lucky few who bought before the boom and whose mortgages (now) fit within the conforming limit.
"Has any economist figured out how much extra money is sloshing around because people aren't paying their mortgages and property tax?"
Remember that isn't exactly "savings" or "extra money". Someone was expecting to receive it. If it was actually paid, someone else would have it. In the case of local governments, they would spend it. In the case of investors, they would spend some of it (e.g., pension funds and individual investors), but they would also save or reinvest a lot of it.
The largest overall effect for the borrower is not paying mortgages increases their consumption. That person might also be paying down other bills, such as high interest credit cards, or investing.
More consumption than otherwise, paid for by reducing the value of other people's savings and investment. That happens at least four ways. 1. Not receiving expected payments. 2. Loss on foreclosure sale. 3. Reduction of the value of securities. 4. Independently reducing asset values by pulling leverage out of the system.
I'd rather see an L, with economic sustainability developing at healthier debt levels with limited room for mindless speculation -- thus giving everyone a new baseline to evaluate against -- followed by a long steady climb due to beneficial investment.
Worth repeating. Americans need a complete reset.
Lefty: man oh man, the stories we could tell. It's one of the reasons we all keep pretty much to ourselves. The appearance of normal is everything. Style over substance and all that. Sort of like planting a garden with tools one has only recently been introduced to.
Morse code translator:
Morse Code Translator
OTISHERTZ?
Check out the date of this, affix tinfoil hat, cue twilight zone theme tune...
Baxter: Product contained live bird flu virus | Canada | News | Toronto Sun
Miss Michelle, meet Mr. Shovel. Say hello. Now, turn it over and put the wide metal end against the ground. Now step firmly on the little ledge. Either one will do. Now press down on the handle and turn the dirt over. What? Oh! Okay, have your Secret Service guy do that.
Export to another planet.
Don't give Geithner any ideas. He'll set up an ABS exchange on Mars.
Wiley Coyote wipes his brow and breathes a sigh of relief.
I'm going to use this phrase to make fun of bottom callers like Krugman. If you read carefully he does what all economists who got lucky and have a reputation worth defending do. He talks like Greenspan. He doesn't say when the bottom will occur or at what level. For that you need a laurel wreath on your head? “Life is a tale told by an idiot -- full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”
Excerpt:
Q: What affect do you expect the Obama stimulus to have on the economy?
A: The policy is a mitigating policy, it's not about promoting recovery, despite the name. It is about diminishing the depth of the slump, and since there still will be a slump, how do you judge how it's working? But you probably will see ... visible growth that turns positive for a few quarters. But there really are no safe havens now, except maybe in the repo business.
How how politic of him. He needs to decide which side he is on.
Some investor guy: I realize that there isn't "extra money" from not paying mortgage/prop tax. The problem is it's just more unrealized losses for the bank.
The banks get more insolvent every day, the big ones just make their quarterly numbers look good with trading/accounting. Housing's continuing drop will kill the banks eventually. These Cum By Ya stress tests are a joke.
Let's be honest about why the Administration worries about an |_ shaped econony:
|
|
_______ 2002 election turnover --------
"He'll set up an ABS exchange on Mars. "
...and later claim he doesn't have the aouthority to deal in Mars.
If Krugman is worried about an L, I'm not. I'm worried about something a little steeper.
MiTurn :
Couer d' Alene?
dr munch
Along with Roubini, I think most large banks are insolvent. If you take the CA, FL, NV, and AZ home equity loans + second mortgages + retained first mortgages*.3 and it's more than shareholder equity, you have an extremely vulnerable bank.
some investor guy (profile) wrote on Sun, 4/26/2009 - 8:00 am reply
"Has any economist figured out how much extra money is sloshing around because people aren't paying their mortgages and property tax?"
Remember that isn't exactly "savings" or "extra money". Someone was expecting to receive it.
And I expect a new aspect to this period of full employment for lawyers; Forcing banks to complete foreclosure proceedings. Being listed as the owner and not just the lien holder is necessary to make the market clearing actions necessary for everyone to move on.
krugman is wrong
its not going to be an L shaped recovery
_
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How so? I read it as: Obama hasn't cured what ails us, instead he has only applied some gauze.
Export to another planet.
Don't give Geithner any ideas. He'll set up an ABS exchange on Mars.
Don't need Mars, just need a "phantom" (totally intangible) financial sector here on earth to/from which we can exchange endless streams of "paper wealth". Oh wait, we already did that...
@Dawg: Yes, Krugman's Nobel Prize may have been the worst thing that happened to him, because now he's too much of a public figure and has to watch what he says too closely. If the Committee ever calls me, I'll say "No thanks!".
If we apply this logic to our Secretary of Energy, who also has a Nobel Prize ...
"in nervous convulsion crouches infant ape trembling in mothers shit
cage eyes tear less filled with contempt clinic mask experiment with
life and death smell lingering noxious mixed scent anxiety omnipotent doctor
grinds the cage door revealing loves primal instinct taken away the tiny
face terrified rant and rave smash your head against the cage vacuum
clicks on high conscious of the pain pass off as humane white coat seems
so clean most dirt bleached out of greed force the point of habit eyes burn
in a rabbit push the pain test button spines cut trip mucous inflection
more die. pills each day what goes around comes back stronger tap into
the brain break the skull again smash price research rat lab rent pain
in flesh more ill drug store sales sharpen the knife emphasis on money
new disease everyday end is seen and coming reseach turns it's back
to gain crush the spine genocide kitten drags its dead limb continuing
all suffering it will come back and win shock paralyse turn trauma
burns out the will to live the lying message 5 year genocide 1945 suicide"
vivisect vi
skinny puppy
YouTube - Skinny Puppy - Testure
I was thinking of selling a few things on Craigs List this week when it struck me this is the prefect tool for an underground economy. The prostitutes have it all figured out of course, but I wonder how much cash from more conventional deals is involved. It's free to list and there is no record of what, if anything, you sold. There isn't any need for commercial space since buyers will come to your door.
Low overhead, no taxes, no bad debts; what more could an entrepreneur want
"There are two kinds of recessions that are bad - those that take place because of financial crises, and those that are synchronized around the world," he said. "In both cases, the recessions tend to last longer and be deeper."
And why is that? Go on, Krugs, say it, "because the Austrian model of the credit cycle is the correct one."
you dont have to worry about a collapse this year. the fed is willing to spend 15-20 trillion in the next couple years to keep the too big banks solvent. imo, it will bite us back in about a year or two.... we will see collapsing property even more.... more unemployment, depressed wages... and thats when these too big to fail will really fail at that point we will wish we could be japanese but will be closer to that movie children of men.
Mock T:
Agree with your model.
Steelhead:
el.al.
mhdoc:
My sister lives by Craigslist. Buys and sells. Everything from clothes for her kids to looking for job openings.
mock turtle @ 8:17 am
Good one... I see a 'synclinal economic recovery' Syncline - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia and have a degree in geology but moved to new endeavors yr ago
I was going to buy a TV at best buy, but look at craigslist instead. Got a 37" Vizio, brank new in the box, from a company approved "wholesaler" in an industrial park. $499 (comp at best buy $750), no tax, no recycling fee, saved over $300. Not sure if Tony Soprano found it in a parked truck, but who cares.
10% sales tax is just inviting underground deals.
Rob,
in many areas, the value of the foreclosed homes will be so low that banks will frequently take tax deductions by donating them. I have seen this in property records in CA from the 1990s. It was also done with raw or entitled land.
bleh (profile) wrote on Sun, 4/26/2009 - 11:21 am
you dont have to worry about a collapse this year. the fed is willing to spend 15-20 trillion in the next couple years to keep the too big banks solvent.
Only in a system devoid of externalities. How long can we keep raising capital before we starve someone important to our context out of the sov debt market? IMO, ceteris paribus, we're gonna suck all the air out of the room til we prompt capital controls or a failure to borrow that casts the whole system as invalid.
the washington state legislature passed a budget in the last day of the session...ends today
we had a 9 billion dollar budget shortfall (washington is a very trade dependent state (pacific rim, lots of bio and digital tech and big agri export)
over 4 billion dollars is cuts to employment and programs, 8000 immediate layoffs of teachers and other state employees
about 4 billion dollars in federal stimulus money and one time budget majik and a relatively small proportion of debt
no new taxes
car tab renewal may CHOOSE to donate 5 dollars to keep state parks open
boeing microsoft wheyerhaeuser and all the rest continue to lay off
So now that we've got Krugman straightened out, can someone please explain to me why California Muni Bonds soard this past couple of weeks? Not that I'm complaining, but I'd like to know why...
Do you suppose Geither will sell banks 17,18,and 19 on Craigs List?
Byzantine_Ruins
km4
thanks
Byz: agreed. How long though, can 'they' keep it going?
Mock turtle: agreed. What's the number for the bottom, or does it even matter?
i really wouldnt be surprised to see a rally to 10000 and 1000 in the snp and dji by summer. you have to remember the fed is committing trillions of taxpayer writeoff on the too big to fail. i actually bought some citi and boa early april (and sold a few days ago) made some good money, ultimately, like the original gd... we will likely need a war to get us out... a big one. im not advocating a ww3, just wouldnt suprirse me that one is created. either way the big banks dont want to pay for any losses, and obama is glad to oblige. kick the can to war or collapse.
No problem, Mock, it's easy to be supportive. Rest easy I'd tell you if I thought you were wrong, but the railfax seems to validate you for now.
Railfax Report - North American Rail Freight Traffic Carloading Report
Banks 17-19 will be listed in the "free, must pick up" section of craigslist.
Downtown LA is already there. At 8pm on Saturday night at Provecho, a highly rated restaurant in 800 block of Wilshire, the dining room is 80% empty, the bar is 100% empty, and ceviche bar is 100% empty . After dinner we drop by Remedy, the adjacent hotties-only boite which baits its entrance two drop-dead beautiful hostesses in minimal black dresses. They look at us hopefully. We look inside: there is one (count 'em 1) other couple in the bar. When drop-dead beautiful women look at me hopefully, you know things are really really bad.
volker the viking
i dont know where the bottom might be
im just not nearly that smart
but im a fair macro guy and i pay attention to fundamentals like concentration of wealth , ballance of trade, currency exchange rates, corporate debt, us debt, and consumer debt, and much more
so many, if not all, the fundamentals look so bad that i have become very very pessimistic
plus we are facing a host of problems like population, environmental and resource issues, even clean water!!! that loom up ahead like a monster that awaits us
we need to get to work or be devoured
Wisdom Speaker (profile) wrote on Sun, 4/26/2009 - 8:26 am reply
So now that we've got Krugman straightened out, can someone please explain to me why California Muni Bonds soard this past couple of weeks? Not that I'm complaining, but I'd like to know why...
There's an implicit Federal guarantee (backstop?) now. Nothing but a repeat of Fannie/Freddie two years ago. Times 20.
The danger is political. California has a "special election" scheduled next month. As it is now every one that includes tax increases is failing. The entire nation will wake up Wed May 20th to the equivalent of France going bankrupt.
Summers Says U.S. Economy to Decline ‘For Some Time’
Summers Defends Scope of Obama’s Financial Regulation Overhaul - Bloomberg.com
April 26 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy will continue to contract “for some time to come,” said Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council.
“I expect the economy will continue to decline,” with “sharp declines in employment for quite some time this year,” Summers said today on “Fox News Sunday.”</i?
The bankruptcy proceedings of General Motors and Chrysler, both of which seem imminent, will have devastating effects on the pensions of people throughout all industries in the nation, even though that may not be show immediately. Of course this shouldn't be that much of a surprise in a society in which many millions already scrape out a (non-)living with no pension whatsoever flipping each other's burgers or greeting each other at the doorsteps of Wal-Mart branches. Still, there will be a point when people finally will wake up long enough from their diabetic slumbers to understand that what they lose in pension funds is lost only because the choice is consciously being made to transfer it to the accounts of bankrupt institutions controlled by the very people who do the transferring.
We're starting to insult ourselves pretending we're in just a financial crisis. One look at the reasons why we're here tells us we're in much deeper waters.
-- Automatic Earth
some investor guy (profile) wrote on Sun, 4/26/2009 - 8:25 am reply
Rob, in many areas, the value of the foreclosed homes will be so low that banks will frequently take tax deductions by donating them. I have seen this in property records in CA from the 1990s. It was also done with raw or entitled land.
This time it will depend upon the municipalities. I'm sure you've noticed that the bureaucracy at the local level in California has in the last 15-20 years gotten extremely hostile and officious. If they hold on and insist on tax arrears and penalties in full it could get ugly with masses of properties stuck in decades long limbo. Yeah, that'll help.
as many here are aware i like paul krugman
but heres some stinging criticism possibly deserved , of his alleged failure to support bill black ( remember recent moyers interview)
found this by wave of naked capitalism link, but theres the direct line
its short and to the point
Day 3 of the "Why Won't #Krugman Post On Bill Black?" Watch | Corrente
thenewsstar.com | Monroe | The News Star
major aquifer news
Why does summers still think that we live in the old world? We may never come out of this mess unless we change our path rather quickly.. but I do not think the PTB will like that
Summers Says U.S. Economy to Decline ‘For Some Time’ (Update1)
Summers Defends Scope of Obama’s Financial Regulation Overhaul - Bloomberg.com
By Matthew Benjamin
April 26 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy will continue to contract “for some time to come,” said Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council.
“I expect the economy will continue to decline,” with “sharp declines in employment for quite some time this year,” Summers said today on “Fox News Sunday.”
What could go wrong?
After an Off Year, Wall Street Pay Is Bouncing Back
After Off Year, Wall Street Pay Is Bouncing Back - NY Times
By LOUISE STORY
Published: April 25, 2009
The rest of the nation may be getting back to basics, but on Wall Street, paychecks still come with a golden promise.
Workers at the largest financial institutions are on track to earn as much money this year as they did before the financial crisis began, because of the strong start of the year for bank profits.
Even as the industry’s compensation has been put in the spotlight for being so high at a time when many banks have received taxpayer help, six of the biggest banks set aside over $36 billion in the first quarter to pay their employees, according to a review of financial statements.
You need to realize that not everyone is in trouble in this economy.
About 1/3 of household do not any mortgage payment. These are people who did not participate in recent recklessness and have lots mony, probably no debt at all.
Don't you love people who try to rewrite history to satisfy their masters?
25 Years to Bounce Back? Try 4½
STRATEGIES; 25 Years To Bounce Back? Try 4 1/2 - NY Times
By MARK HULBERT
Published: April 25, 2009
HISTORICAL stock charts seem to show that it took more than 25 years for the market to recover from the 1929 crash — a dismal statistic that has been brought to investors’ attention many times in the current downturn.
But a careful analysis of the record shows that the picture is more complex and, ultimately, far less daunting: An investor who invested a lump sum in the average stock at the market’s 1929 high would have been back to a break-even by late 1936 — less than four and a half years after the mid-1932 market low.
volker the viking
by brother was an oil geologist for a small exploratory company 20 years ago
more recently he supervises a team of hydrologists at the US geologic survey
he says that there is a better than even chance we will see 1 or 2 wars around the planet fought over access to fresh water
and even here in the usa some of the great aquafers (like the ogallala which provides ground water for people in parts of 8 states!...) are being seriously depleted and or poluted
They have to sell their house someday to get the money.
//You need to realize that not everyone is in trouble in this economy.//
wawawa said,
These are people who did not participate in recent recklessness and have lots mony, probably no debt at all.
And do you think this means they are unaffected, or "not in trouble"?
Unfortunately, those folks have seen their wealth stored in stocks and real estate plunge. They also are facing the same hefty tax increases that are inevitably in our future.
In many areas, the value of the foreclosed homes will be so low that banks will frequently take tax deductions by donating them. I have seen this in property records in CA from the 1990s. It was also done with raw or entitled land.
Interesting. Do they just get the charitable deduction for the FMV of the property or can they also deduct the loss on the excess of their basis over FMV?
Krugman has a terrible record as a forecaster. One that he is at least honest enough to admit to. That Krugman thinks this will be an L recession is a good argument for optimism given his own dismal past track record.
on late comments some very interesting discourse on viruses.... esp from Doc Holliday....
made my night...esp while sipping some Habana rum 3 year old anejo ... delicious!
off to Martini club (the girls... age wise? - follow Sam Nunn on this, don't ask dont' tell )
but I will keep the N1N1 virus in mind, sample question, do you live near pigs that's also close
to an orchard....
cheers
A cattleman told me in 1987 that the next civil war would be one fought over water. Think western states, California, as well as most of Dixie. That takes in a mighty big portion of our geography.
I wonder, how will those smart guys in NYC do when the lack of water hits the fan? Already, smart money is being positioned in companies like the one that controls most of the fresh water for Philadelphia and places all around. A German company was denied purchase of the water in Kentucky in 2002. Chattanooga is battling with N. Georgia.
The thing is, it won't matter much who 'owns' what. What will matter will be the resolve of the people involved to prevail. I can only imagine that desperate people will know the shortest distance between conflict and resolution.
The best thing that could happent to California is for it to go bankrupt. The state's constitution with its myriad layers of directed spending due to past amendments make it ungovernable regardless of which party is in control. Bankruptcy is the only exit path.
great stuff that Cuban rum... esp at 8 dollars a bottle.... mmm!
last night was some good info, not the usual race baiting, personal attack kind of stuff... you know what I mean,
Daisycolorado
please let me disagree in part about krugman and his record of prognostications
primarily he has not been a marketeer ...hes an academic who has specialize in understanding and theorizing about the dynamics of international trade
but he has predicted problems that lay ahead, and solutions, and often been right
from wikipedia
"...Krugman has also been influential in the field of international finance economics.
In 1979 he published a model of currency crises in the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking showing that fixed exchange rate regimes are unlikely to end smoothly: instead, they end in a sudden speculative attack.
Krugman's paper is considered one of the main contributions to the 'first generation' of currency crisis models.[21]
Krugman predicted problems with the fixed exchange rates in East and Southeast Asia, and Thailand's economic policies before the 1997 East Asian financial crisis,
and also criticized investors such as Long-Term Capital Management whose profits depended on the maintenance of fixed exchange rates prior to the 1998 Russian financial crisis.
He also advocated aggressive fiscal policy to counter Japan's economic depression in the 1990s, arguing that the country was mired in a Keynesian liquidity trap.[22]"
mt, I appreciate your posting that Corrente link, for manifold reasons.
I do not have an informed opinion of Krugman's work (either pop or serious work).
But we have seen over the past couple decades how arguments are framed, how problems are deferred, and how otherwise "informed people" can become complacent when they think their champion is on the case, if you know what I mean.
Also note that the number of economists who predicted these troubles can be counted on one hand.
from wiki cited by mt: "Krugman predicted problems with the fixed exchange rates in East and Southeast Asia, and Thailand's economic policies before the 1997 East Asian financial crisis"
In Asia, this was a real eyebrow raiser at the time. Too bad it wasn't an eye opener. Got to give him credit.
There will be many champions. In times of crisis strongmen surface, gain a following and ultimately screw things up just like the managerial types. The complexity of our system coupled with the diversity of our opinions will result in a change some will hail and others will decry. We're not even close yet, but there are some green shoots appearing on the event horizon. Closer examination when more is revealed will give some idea what the outcome will be. I, for one, am enjoying this. It is a time not unlike others I have lived through. I remain optimistic.
MT: re your earlier comment: "We need to get to work or be devoured."
Yes. Devouring is also part of the work.
Worried about an "L" shaped recession. Isn't that like asking the doctor whether you'll be able to play the violin after a car crash that has crushed both your arms,...and you never learned how in the first place? Wish he worry about the triage.
for the people who may have missed the moyers bill black interview
well worth your time to read the transcript
Bill Moyers Journal . Transcripts | PBS
(or you can watch the entire show..scrowl down to april 3rd and click segment
Bill Moyers Journal . Archive | PBS )
heres a snippet
"BILL MOYERS: Bill Black was in New York this week for a conference at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice where scholars and journalists gathered to ask the question, "How do they get away with it?" Well, no one has asked that question more often than Bill Black.
The former Director of the Institute for Fraud Prevention now teaches Economics and Law at the University of Missouri, Kansas City. During the savings and loan crisis, it was Black who accused then-house speaker Jim Wright and five US Senators, including John Glenn and John McCain, of doing favors for the S&L's in exchange for contributions and other perks. The senators got off with a slap on the wrist, but so enraged was one of those bankers, Charles Keating — after whom the senate's so-called "Keating Five" were named — he sent a memo that read, in part, "get Black — kill him dead." Metaphorically, of course. Of course.
Now Black is focused on an even greater scandal, and he spares no one — not even the President he worked hard to elect, Barack Obama. But his main targets are the Wall Street barons, heirs of an earlier generation whose scandalous rip-offs of wealth back in the 1930s earned them comparison to Al Capone and the mob, and the nickname "banksters."
Bill Black, welcome to the Journal.
We can only win this war if we find the swine and destroy their strongholds before they develop more biological agents to menace our way of life. Ultimately, we must achieve pork-independence, perhaps by development and implementation of pork-renewables.
he says that there is a better than even chance we will see 1 or 2 wars around the planet fought over access to fresh water
I call BS - What's cheaper, fighting a huge war over water or building a ton of nuke desalination plants and conserving water via hydroponic skyscrapers? If a 400 gallon reserve tank is all you need for an indoor wheat field, you have no water problem.
Mark Hulbert is writing for the NyTimes ? gee we're really in trouble
Anak wrote
"..."informed people" can become complacent when they think their champion is on the case, if you know what I mean."
yes i appreciate what you said and
thats why no matter how hard i argue with the other side on any issue, i promise to do my best NOT to defend the indefensible
i get very angry with any talking head on tv or radio etc that cant, wont, criticize people from "their side", ever...
v v said : I, for one, am enjoying this. It is a time not unlike others I have lived through. I remain optimistic.
Me neither Buckwheat.
which is what I'm prone to say when I'm hopefully flummoxed.
Problem is that I, along with the rest of the economically active universe (excluding monks and nuns here), have to make money decisions every day. And I'm well flummoxed.
"its not going to be an L shaped recovery
_
..._
......_
.........____
..................____
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..........................................___________________
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....................................................................................................................................____________________________________. "
Brilliant!
I'm calling for Multiple L shaped Bottoms, anyone else with me on this?
Hoopajoops LTD wrote
"I call BS - What's cheaper, fighting a huge war over water or building a ton of nuke desalination plants"
hey hoopajoops...work with me on this
dont think war between usa and canada or china and india
sure those "advanced nations can , would, likely use tech to avoid war
but instead
think third world, agrarian, mostly subsistence farming, and herding nations
like two adjacent sub saharan african nations....
or two poor countries in the middle east that have little access to oil or other wealth
its not BS hommie, its as real as it gets
"i get very angry with any talking head on tv or radio etc that cant, wont, criticize people from "their side", ever... "
We're each other's champion, I guess. So thanks for watching and listening because I just cannot.
Again, I have to thank CR for providing the mortar and pestle for commentary from those many who are a lot smarter than I am!
mock, oh, if you're talking 3rd world, then yeah, we're already there. It's happening right now.
Also, why do you think china wants tibet so badly? WATER SECURITY.
Hoopajoops LTD (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 4/26/2009 - 11:57 am
* reply
he says that there is a better than even chance we will see 1 or 2 wars around the planet fought over access to fresh water
I call BS - What's cheaper, fighting a huge war over water or building a ton of nuke desalination plants and conserving water via hydroponic skyscrapers? If a 400 gallon reserve tank is all you need for an indoor wheat field, you have no water problem.
Well, good for you. Of course, you could be wrong.
And the water problem, mock turtle, is immediate and compelling. Think third world? You mean like Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee? Or, Los Angeles and the San Joachin Valley?
Good for you too, you passive-aggressive ninny. Don't be a dick.
It doesn't really matter whether it is cheaper to build desal plants (I doubt it, tho) or go to war. It is much more important to follow the money-who benefits and who has the pull to make it happen.
Here is a little link for ya: WAR IS A RACKET - Major General Smedley D. Butler - USMC Retired written by by Two-Time Congressional Medal of Honor Recipient Major General Smedley D. Butler - USMC Retired.
Wisdom Speaker (profile) wrote on Sun, 4/26/2009 - 7:56 am
Part of me thinks that an L-shaped recession profile should be welcomed, rather than worried about. Until there are meaningful new economic drivers, the only way we get an upslope on the recovery is by blowing another bubble. I don't think that's a healthy way to reallocate capital! (After all, it was fear of the "L" after the dot-com bubble that got us into this huge mess!)
I'd rather see an L, with economic sustainability developing at healthier debt levels with limited room for mindless speculation -- thus giving everyone a new baseline to evaluate against -- followed by a long steady climb due to beneficial investment.
For some time I've been asking optimists, "So what will end this recession?" The answer is almost always the sound of crickets in an empty barn. But I entirely agree with the scenario above. I also think that "beneficial investment" can and should be guided socially, to things that increase societal wealth -- cheap, renewable energy, cheaper and more efficient healthcare, etc. Because the last time, all we got was SUVs and badly built homes in the wasteland.
What is the ramp up time to have in place all the infrastructure to use technology as a solution? When you start charging 50 cents to a dollar a gallon at the tap of homes/apartments/condos/businesses, which some have considered as possible (even probable when the inflation bear gets his bitch on) then the blow back will be palpable. Really, folk, who amongst us truly believes it will be simple?
Of course, the pols will pontificate that we the people must once again pay up for the greater common weal. And the massive infrastructure necessary will benefit whom? City folk in places most only read about or stare at through the idiot box. Won't that be interesting.
"...unless we find another planet to take our stuff?"
That might work for awhile, until the Alpha-Centaurians begin paying us with worthless paper.
Krugman has been right about some aspects of the d-r-ep-ecession and wrong about others, but it is hard to see his thinking on this one. Of course it will be L-shaped. It is NOT a recession, it is a bursting bubble.
If you look at GDP curves, personal spending curves, credit level curves it is obvious you have to chop off the bubble part to see where things 'really' were. It is simply foolish to think that we are going to 'recover' to a bubble high.
The price of tulips never did recover.
Hoopajoops LTD (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 4/26/2009 - 12:14 pm
* reply
Good for you too, you passive-aggressive ninny. Don't be a dick.
I wonder why it has been said of you that your participation is always intelligent and thoughtful.
Yikes
i was sayin there could be a war over water
not a war over words!
lets keep kool
he started it
blonderengel, your words fall like rain on my parched psyche-
Entheogenic
Volker, it takes 4 years to make a nuke plant, mass producing them can cut that time down. 50 cents to a dollar a gallon is a number you just made up, and it's nowhere near what nuke desal would cost. Nuke plants generate heat and steam with extreme efficiency. Nuke desal for the first world can easily satisfy our residential water requirements in case of shortage, and with some basic restructuring it could also do our ag. Even if water were ridiculously priced at 50 cents to a dollar a gallon, that's about 10 bucks a day on extreme restrictive use, quite doable for most in our country.
TPTB have been beating the drums that no other big bank will be allowed to fail because of Lehman as an example. How convenient an excuse justifying the continual rape of the taxpayer. Lehman is a sacrificial lamb for the continued pillaging of our pocketbooks.
I say Lehman is an example of how big banks should be allowed to fail and I'm not buying into their brainwashing that the taxpayer must save all other big institutions because of another Lehman happening. Screw them, lets have lots more Lehman type failures.
Man, youse guys aren't even finished with the depression or pandemic and we're off to a water war.
## I wonder why it has been said of you that your participation is always intelligent and thoughtful.
You thought that? Good for you.
See how constructive that phrase is now? Good for you.
Don't say "Good for you." when disagreeing. Those are fighting words.
Man, youse guys aren't even finished with the depression or pandemic and we're off to a water war.
YOU MAY JOIN ME IN MY AQUATIC SQUIRREL BREEDING COMPOUND, BUT YOU MUST BRING HERITAGE SEEDS OR GOLD
THE RULES ARE STRICT BUT FAIR
Wally
much of what you said is true
but
i have to disagree about this just being a bursting bubble
its much much more than that...it is a financial crisis, and a lot more than even that
but the financial crisis aspect alone is enuf to magnify the fall-out from the bursting bubble many times over
then add in the fraud that prof william black was talking about on the moyers interview (see up thread please)
we are in deep deep voodoo
While we're at discussing time frames, consider that many nuclear plants take decades for the permitting process. Of course, some sort of breakthrough is possible, such as cold fusion. Then the entire paradigm is changed.
I would wonder without optimism about the probability of families tolerating existence on 10 or 20 gallons a day. Not happening.
Good for you, too. Wow. Are you good at this stuff, or what?
wally wrote:
"Of course it will be L-shaped. It is NOT a recession, it is a bursting bubble."
Exactly. Then there's the insane talk of returning to normal ?!? What is normal ? unsustainable levels of consumer debt ? LBO's based on grossly unrealistic profit projections ? Never-ending appreciation of real estate ? etc.etc.
-splat
Talking heads from both sides are CFR member divide and conker control freak agents. They both have a specific job to do keeping the populous divided into an even 50/50 split. They are very good at what they do so the populous cannot form a consensus on on how to remove the entrenched public officials and disrupt the elite power base. It's quite fascinating how it works really.
While we're at discussing time frames, consider that many nuclear plants take decades for the permitting process.
Things change. Paper is thin. If there's a real need, the permitting process will be months rather than years. That's why I said 4 years to build a nuclear power plant.
I would wonder without optimism about the probability of families tolerating existence on 10 or 20 gallons a day. Not happening.
Then they'll burn shit down. What are they going to do, riot some water out of the sky? Water or lack of water is kind of a basic fact, hard to really blame your politicians for a lack of sky god mana, that's kind of out of the human realm.
I'm not so sure about this future you're envisioning, where the need for water is so desperate and the population is on a breaking point where it "will not tolerate" necessary rationing, but on the flipside somehow we're in a state of total paralysis and can't seem to manage to figure out how to get a nuclear plant permitted in under a decade. This is a strange, terrible world you conceive of, containing many intractable contradictions.
L shaped? I remember that being dismissed awhile ago. I thought it was a W bottom?
When the economy gets to the bottom and begins that right hand turn what will be left?
We can export water by exporting grains.
In ten to 15 years maybe we will have manufactured products that can be sold. Other than the big name Boeing, Cat, whatever.
The US might actually have a few cars the world might be interested in. Software integrated with hardware, perhaps solar or windbased.
Interesting, I saw that China is building what looked like a Rolls Royce clone for one sixth the price. That sums up the problem to me. How do you compete and pay a decent wage?
volker the viking
Good for you, too. Wow. Are you good at this stuff, or what?
Oh snap, and with that constructive comment, we've found a test case for my new greasemonkey ignore script. If a volker trolls in the woods and nobody hears it, does he exist?
US: Homeland Security Secretary announces U.S. to declare public health emergency. 25% of antiviral stockpile to be released
splat
i think you are right
it aint gonna be a recovery back to the way things were,... we are not going back
the old paradigm was unsustainable
we are no longer in the delta quadrant, we are off the charts (map)
25% of our antiviral stockpile, wow, that's like what, 10,000 doses of tamiflu? Stunning, stunning deployment of resources after the pandemic has passed a stage of easy containment. We are really, really screwed.
I worry about more than an L Shaped Recession -- and the evidence that much worse is coming keeps growing....
One of my "4 Best" posts of the week on my blog quotes the SF Chronicle as estimating
600,000 Homes in "Shadow Inventory"???? This is in addition to CR's many posts about increasing foreclosures already coming....
plus HUGE examples of Government waste that is being touted as "stimulus"
Much More....
This weeks 4 Best 4 Worst
4best4worst’s Blog
Best to all
Maximus
4best4worst’s Blog
"US: Homeland Security Secretary announces U.S. to declare public health emergency. 25% of antiviral stockpile to be released"
At the 12 million doses announced simple arithmetic gives us a total of 48 million doses.
"They are very good at what they do so the populous cannot form a consensus on on how to remove the entrenched public officials and disrupt the elite power base. It's quite fascinating how it works really."
Michael, they're just talking..... dis-entrench yourself!
Barfly.
Good link. VG! Plus, the movie was good but his poetry was great.
I'm still trying to figure out why people assume things will eventually return to normal.
hoopajoops writes: "I'm not so sure about this future you're envisioning..."
Neither am I. When considering possibilities, many sides must be probed. Of course, as you possess a certainty above investigation, you may feel free to ignore whatever I post. I'm used to it. I have children who do that all the time.
Michael posts an interesting POV as well.
12 million doses? Damn, we must have really goosed up that stockpile since I was last following the H5N1. That's a little more heartening.
Though tamiflu requires a 5 day course, so divide that number by 5, and thats the number of americans whose condition will be ameliorated.
Swine flu: U.S. declares public health emergency as precaution
The action allows government easier access to medications and flu tests. In Mexico, five more deaths have been reported.
Hoops,
Released to "essential" personel first.
Military will get a lot of that.
An L-shaped recovery is otherwise known as "a collapse." As in, no subsequent bubbles will be happening for a very long time.
I had to laugh the other day when I received some PR from a local business college. They kept referring to "the economic downturn." Meanwhile everyone else is on "recession" and most forward-thinking people have been on "depression" for some time, and still others are at "collapse."
Antivirals will be released to mission critical personnel first, and the well connected next.
nova,
Can't spell government without goons, I guess. Someone's got to spraypaint our doors, take away our weapons, herd us into stadiums, and loot our televisions. Otherwise it would be chaos.
Global cooling, Flu pandemic, and economic collapse equals Divine Retribution.
mal
I am waiting for death spiral, armegeddon, and a really poopy time to be used.
BTW, anyone out there read Dmitry Orlov's "Reinventing Collapse"? I'm halfway through it. He is just spot on about everything. The book focuses on a comparison of the post-Soviet collapse in Russia (1980s and '90s) and how the man on the street got through it, and how fucked the U.S. is going to be by comparison, and (the good news) how you can adjust and cope. Not your average post-collapse "grow tomatoes and milk goats" treatise. Plus it's funny as hell.
UNSEAL THE SEAL
A fight to the death
With a dumb idol
Immobile
Dull,
Stone head
And a brain of lead
Sealed with the mark of Cain,
Dumb
As mammon
We should say,
Every day
You idol, you,
God break you in two
And melt the lead
In your dull stone head,
Unseal the seal
So Cain can feel
Pavel
April 26, 2009
I have never understood why people want to insult other people on the internet.
Vicious repartee, yes. Insults, no.
There is no normal.
Anak,
Here's a good place to start if you want to educate yourself.
Yuri Bezmenov - The KGB and the brain washing of the West
YouTube - Yuri Bezmenov - The KGB and the brain washing of the West
I have never understood why people want to insult other people on the internet.
Three hours of sleep and emergency surgery on a major automaker has something to do with it.
Pontaic Total Confidence
Pontiac Headed for Junk Yard - WSJ.com
From SARS experience, and for a final obvious comment of the night, I'm going to suggest that something like a pandemic, real or imagined, is a powerful pivot point.
But it's got to play out in all its glory before we get there.
BTW, anyone out there read Dmitry Orlov's "Reinventing Collapse"?
Very good article, plus that dry, dark Russian take on everything. I especially like his view of politicians, of all stripes.
bye...gotta go dig the bunker a little deeper
It was obvious that the excitement of Mr. ... was triggered when mention was made of the nation's industry.
"We have been successful in dividing society against itself by pitting labor against management. (The social-labor movement, employing labor unions, a manipulation of wages and prices, and government regulation of business, was the brainchild of ---s such as Karl Marx and Samuel Gompers. The result was a destruction of free enterprise.) This perhaps has been one of our greatest feats, since in reality it is a triangle, though only two points ever seem to occur. In modern industry where exists capital, which force we represent, is the apex. Both management and labor are on the base of this triangle. They continually stand opposed to each other and their attention is never directed to the head of their problem. Management is forced to raise prices since we are ever increasing the cost of capital. Labor must have increasing wages and management must have higher prices, thus creating a vicious cycle. We are never called to task for our role which is the real reason for inflation, since the conflict between management and labor is so severe that neither has time to observe our activities. It is our increase in the cost of capital that causes the inflation cycle. We do not labor or manage, and yet we receive the profits. Through our money manipulation, the capital that we supply industry costs us nothing. Through our national bank, the Federal Reserve, we extend book credit, which we create from nothing, to all local banks who are member banks. They in turn extend book credit to industry. Thus, we do more than God, for all of our wealth is created from nothing. You look shocked! Don't be! It's true, we actually do more than God. With this supposed capital we bring industry, management and labor into our debt, which debt only increases and is never liquidated. Through this continual increase, we are able to pit management against labor so they will never unite and attack us and usher in a debt-free industrial utopia.
"We are the necessary element since we expend nothing. Management can create its own capital -- the profits. Its business would grow and profits increase. Labor would prosper as well, while the price of the product would remain constant, the prosperity of industry, labor and management would continually increase. We ---s glory in the fact that the stupid goy have never realized that we are the parasites consuming an increasing portion of production while the producers are continually receiving less and less."
You are a dick is not witty repartee.
And.
there is no normal.
Never was, never will be.
Pontiac’s U.S. sales peaked at just a shade under 900,000 in 1978 — the year after the brand peaked in the popular consciousness when Burt Reynold drove a Trans Am to stardom in the hit film “Smokey and the Bandit.” Pontiac’s U.S. sales fell to 267,000 last year, and it currently accounts for about 2% of the U.S. car market and 11% of GM’s total sales.
PEAK then a 30 year decline. Sounds like US Real Estate
You can read a good intro to Orlov's main points online here:
Social Collapse Best Practices
You can read a good intro to Orlov's main points online here:
Social Collapse Best Practices
Hoops, you work under protective orders on your cases?
People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said China’s current-account surplus “‘will no longer be a serious problem” as the country’s economic-stimulus plan stokes domestic demand.
China’s Current-Account Surplus May Shrink, Zhou Says (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
liz: We're all normal, even though nobody drives straight down the road.
JUSA writes:
Oops, here come the jew baiters.
"We have been taught that our current economic practices are benevolent therefore Christian. These pulpit parrots extol our goodness for loaning them the money to build their temples, never realizing that their own holy book condemns all usury. They are eager to pay our exorbitant interest rates. They have led society into our control through the same practice. Politically, they hail the blessings of democracy and never understand that through democracy we have gained control of their nation. Their book (Notice that Mr. ... always refers to the Bible as their book) again teaches a benevolent despotic form of government in accordance with the laws of that book, while a democracy is mob rule which we control through their Churches, our news media and economic institutions. Their religion is only another channel through which we can direct the power of our propaganda. These religious puppets' stupidity is only exceeded by their cowardice, for they are ruled easily."
nova,
Not sure what you mean by protective orders.
"Americns have not had a presidential choice since 1932. Roosevelt was our man; every president since Roosevelt has been our man."In a discussion about George Wallace, Mr. ... smiled and suggested that we note where Wallace stands today
Here are better links on Brainwashing techniques used on us. These techniques are not today used by Russia on us today but rather by people like the Buildeberg Group and other world ruling elite.
Ex-KGB Uri Bezmenov On Ideological Indoctrination - Part 1
YouTube - Ex-KGB Uri Bezmenov On Ideological Indoctrination - Part 1
Ex-KGB Uri Bezmenov On Ideological Indoctrination - Part 2
YouTube - Ex-KGB Uri Bezmenov On Ideological Indoctrination - Part 2
Hoopajoops LTD:
The old tricks are not working anymore. But lets try one more time.
Michael: I googled Buildeberg Group and didn't get any results.
Hoops,
I was going to ask about your "Major surgery" but I did not want to ask you for anything that would violate the client - attorney. The stuff I come in contact with usually has a protective order issued meaning the Judge has decided that what is read, etc. can not be discussed with anyone who is not "approved" for lack of better word.
"We have been given certain... magical powers. The ability to confound the goy and trick him into believing that we are all-powerful despite our small numbers and unassuming demeanor. Our rituals are complex and esoteric, and involve intense study, stand up comedy, self-deprecating humor, getting bullied by our wives and mothers, and constantly fretting to the world at large about insignificant events and what they might inform us about the state of our physical and mental health."
"You know President Taft? We did that. His over-sized bathtub? That too. For centuries, Christians have been saddled by the yolk of our incomprehensible and nigh undetectable influence, all bent toward the ultimate plan of finding a nice Jewish man to marry, maybe a doctor or lawyer darling, someone with professional prospects. I don't mean to pry but Moshel the pharmacist has been eating alone lately, and while he isn't a looker he's definitely available. Why don't you ever call? It is so lonely here."
I understand the daffodils nationside this year have been stunning. Anybody know why?
nova, I can only talk after it hits the papers. Sorry mate.
Hoops,
Not a problem. All the good stuff is usually that way.
Jusa,
Thanks. A very sicinct description of what is really going on. Normal people cannot understand the meaning of the information you give.
"We ---s glory in the fact that the stupid goy have never realized that we are the parasites consuming an increasing portion of production while the producers are continually receiving less and less."
Goy are Gentiles easily fleeced by people I like to refer to as J-People.
Michael, could you direct me to the guys doing the fleecing? I believe I'm entitled to a cut, yet somehow I've not seen a dime.
For Barfly...and anyone else...
Special For You
Just this once, I leave the noodles in the water
An extra two minutes. The pasta, you say. Some people
Turn out picky that way: anything bitten
To the gums, to the point of refusal, gets questioned. Take
The water restrictions recently imposed.
The hose spews, undaunted, unquestioned. You,
You perch before the screen dimly lighting a room
Constructed of Asian artifacts, Ikea closeouts, and auction items
Unstuffed from one dollar box-lots--computing
Charts, numbers, quantify able elements. Understanding
Nothing and hoping for more, a ten X confidence
In a positive outcome. The story goes like this: The sole
Unmovable fact is, we are in this
Together, come rain or something less robust
Going forward. Undaunted. Un. Un. Une femme, ooo-lah-lah
One searches. What you will
Find here is a certain sort of lie. Peppers, perhaps too many, dangle
Heavy from all this, small, hot, the tip of a tongue
Flames for hours after. I’m quiet more often
Than not, biting mine and what’s mine to the last
Cell. More often I’m asleep or pretend to be. And nothing
Leaves, early, before Sunrise, not the birds
And their incessant chirping, trilling sexual songs,
For the birds—this whole, less clear.
Now the cloth, dusted with holy oil, prayed over, blessed,
Shipped next day air. Of all things in this room, space
Is more important than whatever we might imagine is, so
You say, given all things, holding all things,
I remember the tree I never bought.
"BTW, anyone out there read Dmitry Orlov's "Reinventing Collapse"?"
Our visiting IT guy did. The pity, he could not really explain how exactly "the end of the world" will look. Then he proceeded into 2012 Maya prediction, end of civilization & deer hunting.
It is so easy to believe into what you want to believe. It's much harder to conclude "I don't know" instead of making up views that represent your fears & wishes rather than the world as it is.
p.s. I had a good laugh that day.
So is that passport requirement helping the cross border shopping? Methinks Janet Napolitano needs some education on how we work together here in the Pacific Northwest.
Although to be fair, the Millennium bombers did get caught in Port Angeles when he panicked and ran...
Volker,
Sorry my lazy spell checker, try this,
Secret Societies: The Bilderberg Group
Secret Societies: The Bilderberg Group - Video
Nomenclature Debate: Is the phrase, " 'L'-shaped Recovery" an easily-addicted-to misnomer?
Folks, it does not represent or signal any "Recovery"...the ‘L’ shape signals and represents a long traversing of the bumpy floor of a crater of unknown diameter.
I'd suggest we say 'L'-Shaped Descent instead. Or ‘L’-shaped Descent-then-Grope.
How apropos the uncertainty of the ‘L’-shape.
This debt-fueled economic re-structuring we’ve entered, kicking & screaming, has yet to signal what could replace the expired 25-yr experiment of a 300+ million-person nation attempting to operate on a GDP that is 70% driven by debt-enabled consumer spending. Therefore, the uncertainty signaled by the ‘L’-shaped Descent-then-Grope is perfect!
Volker, also, try this,
Tin foil hat - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This is about another real, not hypothetical L-shape:
YouTube - The L-Curve: Income Distribution of the U.S.
and Krugman on this problem
YouTube - Paul Krugman - Income Inequality and the Middle Class
A reset is obviously needed. Guess that make me sound like Ho Chi Minh.