Federal Reserve Releases Stress Test White Paper
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Fri, 04/24/2009 - 10:06am (190 comments)
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Why do they bother? Even if they tell the truth, nobody will believe them.
This will make for some light afternoon reading...
@Nemo: Which means they won't tell the truth.
fwiw:
Motley Foot: "Selloff coming this afternoon"
Selloff coming this afternoon
I saw a white paper and I want it painted black.
Most U.S. banking organizations currently have capital levels well in excess of the amounts required to be well capitalized.
Oh really????
I love a good fairy tale ! Now, is this going to be epic fantasy or just low grade make-believe ?
Guess I have some reading to do...
Big fat nothing burger. I sat around watching CNBC for this? WTF
I thought I had a double nothingburger.
The white paper essentially says Hal Turner is a douchebag.
I have no doubts that we can solve our problems on paper. I don't even think the color of the paper matters.
Sell the news...
Market got very volatile with the release. Bank index diving.
All domestic BHCs with year‐end 2008 assets exceeding $100 billion were required to participate in the SCAP as part of the ongoing supervisory process. These 19 firms collectively hold two‐thirds of the assets and more than one‐half of the loans in the U.S. banking system,...
I wondered where the magic number of 19 came from. Now I know.
You cannot handle the truth!
Results from Trading Portfolio losses and counterparty risk sections might be interesting.
White paper cannot paper of all the red. Turning into a pink paper.
It's 2x+ good, Winston
We can call it SCAM: S upervisory C apital A ssessment progra M
JoGa -- make it a M anifesto
That's right ComradAnon, buy on the rumour sell on the news
When will timmy have to stop blowing smoke?
Uh oh, do I see Elmo coming this way?
So... the report is a SCAMifesto?
Kermit is bungie jumping.... without a bungie rope
Unemployment 2009 2010 (average over the year)
Baseline 8.4 8.8
More Adverse 8.9 10.3
I find it hard to believe that we'd stay under 9.0 for 2009.
Administer a grade 2 level test to someone in need of university is about what this whole process was, oh and let the kid give the test to themself. A total orchestrated SCAM!!!!
Everybody reading the paper?
Anybody still awake?
Timothy Geithner is going to end up wishing he'd become a linoleum salesman.
I just scanned the document and there didn't seem to be much there. They discuss the indicative loss rates, but they don't provide the guidelines.
If someone sees something interesting, please let me know
best wishes
"There are currently 39 users and 733 guests online."
Is that higher than usual. Folks used to get excited when we approached 666. Now we're way over, or is it the 'bots' again?
While we're waiting for CR to speed-read, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is typically dour about Europe, with an interesting quote about Eurobanks:
Deutsche Bank has reserves to cover a default rate of 0.7pc, against non-performing assets (NPAs) of 1.67pc; RBS has 1.23pc against NPAs of 2.43pc, and Credit Agricole has 2.63pc against NPAs 3.64pc. None have put aside enough money.
By contrast, Citigroup has reserves of 4pc against NPAs of 3.22pc; and JP Morgan has 3.11pc against NPAs of 1.95pc.
Been a while since I've heard anyone say anything nice about Citi, even relatively!
New from Ronco!
FASBomatic 09'
It shreds responsibility or your money back.
What is in this thing that is causing the market to cliff dive?
Lies, lies, and more lies.
So we've already exceeded the consensus forecast for unemployment?
That's reassuring.
I find it hard to believe that we'd stay under 9.0 for 2009.
Well, they did clarify that didn't intend for the "more adverse" scenario to be a best-case scenario.
Oh, wait, they said "worst-case". Never mind.
Isn't it odd that the worksheet in the pdf, upon which this momentous stress test is based, is like 100 pages shorter than my tax return?
"What is in this thing that is causing the market to cliff dive?"
Expected good news.
150 examiners??? You're kidding. It 'd take a dozen just to find their way into the building. February 25th, like that was two months ago. Oh, yeah....they worked weekends, sure.
Bankers working weekends. Now that's a good one. Bankers working weekends,
Time to start blowing things up.
They are government officials: they're used to being ineffective.
Supervisory Capital Assessment Program - SCAT
Scatology the biologically oriented study of excrement (as for taxonomic purposes or for the determination of diet)
sniff, sniff...does it pass the smell test?
Let's reverse-engineer it
I got a kick out of how we've already surpassed the "Alternative More Adverse" for 2009 in virtually every measure and 2010 has so many 'glimmers' baked in to the forecast.
I thought we were going to try a real stress test?
Apparently, we'll just have to do this the hard way.
Can someone translate this in English.
Are we totally fucked or just partially fucked ?
You read faster than I do CR. Of course, you also had a head start I expect.
The more adverse unemployment number has already been blown past in some states.
And with the job market turning around like it is, well, I think we will be fine...
The words estimate, estimated, and estimates show up 60 times within 21 pages including tables and footnotes. Obviously the stress tests are going to provide concrete conclusions.
Got Crayon?
Damn, you are good man.
Is there a fight club meeting tonight?
Probably just more stressed butt squirts and filtering.
Wawawa asks: Can someone translate this in English. Are we totally fucked or just partially fucked ?
Totally Fucked
yahoo tech ticker has been posting links to calculatedrisk this morning. So maybe that is where the new users are coming from.
Polite request: please identify snark for those of us (and by us, I mean me) who have to read things a couple of times before I realize you are joking.
Thank you.
An average american taxpayer
Since the announcement of the SCAP in late February, the economy has deteriorated somewhat...
Yeah, it has deteriorated just a little
Oh and they have some pretty images in the paper too related to GDP and unemployment. CR haas prettier graphs though...
So sully, that should be Supervisory Capital Assessment Test - SCAT
OK, panic selling over.
Back to squeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezing the shorts now.
based on what "more adverse" is, i figure this stress test is like testing the air bags in your car, by running it into a wall made of plywood at 15mph. Just enough to put some scratches on your paint, but not really a real test.
The promise was "transparancy" ...... nobody made any promises about "fair or honest"
Excerpt:
The firms were instructed to explain clearly the assumptions underlying these projections, especially those regarding business or market share growth. Especially in the more adverse scenario...
Under the baseline scenario, BHCs were instructed to assume no further losses beyond current marks.
Inconceivable. Does that word mean what I think it means?
Now I am certain you all know the difference between a fairy tale and a sea tale...but to review:
A fairy tale begins, "Once upon a time..."
A sea tale begins, "Now this is no sh!t..."
CR haas prettier graphs though...
CR has better hair than Timmy, too.
Looks like Kermit had that Bungee Cord on after all.
I think the market fell because the traders have whitewash priced in and reading the document they though there was a possibility it wasn't a whitewash.
They are expecting unemployment to come in at 9.3 percent in 2010, which is worse than baseline, but better than the adverse scenario.
They are expecting housing to track the baseline.
They are expecting GDP to track the baseline.
Therefore, everything is going according to their plan
Stormtrooper: Let me see your identification.
Obi-Wan: [with a small wave of his hand] You don't need to see his identification.
Stormtrooper: We don't need to see his identification.
Obi-Wan: These aren't the droids you're looking for.
Stormtrooper: These aren't the droids we're looking for.
Obi-Wan: He can go about his business.
Stormtrooper: You can go about your business.
Obi-Wan: Move along.
Stormtrooper: Move along... move along.
I'll say again: since the purpose of this exercise was to determine the size of the next taxpayer contribution to this sinkhole, every indication that they've grossly underestimated the scale of the problem is good news.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve says the government is prepared to rescue any of the banks that underwent "stress tests" and were deemed vulnerable if the recession worsened sharply.The Fed says the 19 companies that hold one-half of the loans in the U.S. banking system won't be allowed to fail -- even if they fared poorly on the stress tests.The tests are intended to measure whether banks have enough capital to withstand losses on mortgages and other assets if unemployment rises and home prices fall further. Investors had feared the tests would highlight some banks' vulnerability to failure.
Oh, I see. That's how they passed the SCAT.
14:05 [BRIEFING.COM]
According to a government statement, the methodology used in conducting the government's bank stress tests was not intended to be a worst case scenario, and large banks need to hold additional capital
Briefing.com: Stock Market Update
Anyway you slice it they divert the conversation from the banks to how crappy the stress test was, it is a win for them.
i feel cheated i was promised something special
Let's go back on the econ blogs and see how many bottoms were called. Then figure out how much money was lost by being lured back in by carnival barkers.
Anyone wanna call another bottom in housing? I love when dates for the bottom are given.
I remember when the problem was supposedly the 'ruthless' borrowers. Now prime & CRE are the 'ruthless' borrowers.
What was needed all along was more filtering so more suckers coulda got back in.
'Stress' tests are another filter like all the others to block the sun..
Calculated Risk,
So what do you think of this latest work of Fiction? Are the fiction writers getting any better?
A whole lot of NOTHINGBURGER. "We're afraid to release tangible details because quick, on the ball analysts, yes acknowledging there are but just a few, will quickly see we're full of $hit and afraid you'll discover we're not wearing any clothes and start selling financials. We can't have that and if our lying is hindered, well then, we're not going to say much of anything. Hmph! So just sit there in quiet obedient servitude and give us your damn money. We think it's ours anyways!"
Traders reading the document...hahahaha, that's a good one.
These guys don't read. The programs do the trades according to pre-programmed scenarios.
lifeguard1999, parts of it are a rehash (like the economic scenarios). These are the same scenarios they released in February. There are some details on how they asked the banks to perform the tests - and the cross checking the Fed did across banks.
The indicative loss rates information is sparse ... they asked for loss rates in 12 categories. I believe these are:
First Lien Mortgages (Prime, Alt-A, Subprime) (3 categories)
Second Lien Mortgages (Closed end Jrs, HELOCs) (2 categories)
CRE loans (C&D, Apartment, other like offices and hotels) (3 categories)
C&I Loans
Credit Cards
Other Consumer
and Other (like agricultural).
In general, that is how the Fed presents loss rates. Although I'm guessing at the sub-categories.
Why they don't provide the indicative two year loss rates for the more adverse scenario, I don't know. That would help measure the current reports from various banks against the projected losses.
Best to all.
I think the market fell because the traders have whitewash priced in and reading the document they though there was a possibility it wasn't a whitewash.
I think the market fell because if you take the leftmost letter of each line of the paper, assign it a number (A=1...Z=26), multiply by the 2009th prime number, add 424, then take the resulting number modulo 26 and convert back to a letter you get a message that begins ATTN GOLDMAN TRADING DESK: YOU HAVE ELEVEN TRADING DAYS TO COMPLETE DISTRIBUTION BEFORE WE BEGIN DILUTING BANK STOCKS...
We've got a pair of 2's and all the cards have been dealt and there are 4 other players raising the bets on our debts, but no problem, we'll just bluff.
"Lies, lies, and more lies"
Usually makes the market go up.
Why they don't provide the indicative two year loss rates for the more adverse scenario, I don't know. That would help measure the current reports from various banks against the projected losses.
I think you answered your own question there, CR....
'If you don't take your profits, then you will take losses.'
Next shoe: agricultural loan losses due to last years' commodity price assumptions.
uno mundo wrote on Tue, 04/21/2009 - 1:03am.
I'm feeling like if you were on a barstool next to me, I'd have to take a chance kicking your ass cause you are egging for a fight. Isn't this silly namecaller. What. No rational discussion. Just proved my whole thesis tonight again!
uno mundo wrote on Tue, 04/21/2009 - 10:41am.
CR,
You really should filter out 'threats' to bloggers on your site. I took pictures of all the threats to find my location and send someone after me.
Where's the 'loss rates' for derivatives contracts?
8.9 pct unemployment for 2009.
That is all you need to know about the legitimacy of these tests.
Let me put to you all another way: the government still hasn't "nationalized" Fannie, Freddie, or AIG. Do you really think they are going to nationalize a bank?
Not a chance.
Say what you will but the white paper makes for decent rolling paper.
I apologize Otis. And I said 'if'. Just a hypothetical. Like the word 'butt squirt'
How much of this do you think gets paid back?
Probably less than the 1.7 cents on the dollar Fannie has their foreclosure advance loans marked at.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Most U.S. banking organizations currently have capital levels well in excess of the amounts required to be well capitalized.
Oh really????
Remember that there are over 7000 banks in the country, so the statement could be true if 3600 of them were well qualified. Then again the statement assumes that Community National Bank of Centerville Ohio is just as significant as Bank of America
I don't think we should read it. Lets stay in the dark.
Thank god.. it is epic fantasy..
Where ( apart from out their ass ) did the GDP projections come from ?
The unemployment projection are frankly ridiculous ( unless the govt. introduces a new counting method, ie. exclude people without jobs from the unemployment statistics )
"Although the likelihood that unemployment could average 10.3 percent in 2010 is now higher than had been anticipated when the scenarios were specified, that outcome still exceeds a more recent consensus projection by professional forecasters"
It'll cross 10 by end Q2 2009 and we're already there in CA and Chrysler or GM going belly up is not going to get that number down.
Also the notes about the "developed proprietary models" was interesting, the type of custom models that perhaps delivers the required result regardless of source inputs ?
Are their detailed modeling specifics going to be published perhaps ?
SCAP = Shite Complete And Pure
Did anyone expect anything else than bulls#1t ? Honestly ?
You wonder if this is finally the pandemic we have been warned about.
Wonder what the world would like like with 50% fewer people?
CDC: Swine flu viruses in U.S. and Mexico match - CNN.com
When was the last time that these mother fuckers (gov. people) told us the truth ?
Can you answer me that!
FFDIC wrote on Fri, 4/24/2009 - 11:36 am reply
I don't think we should read it. Lets stay in the dark.
But, but, but FFDIC. If we don't read it how will we know how to cast an informed vote?
"Wonder what the world would like like with 50% fewer people?"
Can I choose which people to keep ?
I knew the late night blog 'threat' was bogus Otis. I was just making a point how the debate descends into silliness sometimes. And I got caught up in the silliness.
The nastiness on blogs everywhere is accelerating as is the monitoring and filtering, editing and namecalling because we live in 'interesting times'. I'm not going to get 'silly' any more. I'm going to talk about disclosure issues and stuff that's going to affect the markets. That's all.
pg 16
The supervisory team assessing consumer credit losses worked closely with accounting specialists in the agencies to ensure tha the firms’ projections were consistent with accounting standards. Additionally, supervisors evaluated the potential impact of the proposed changes to FAS 140 which are expected to be implemented in January 010. Based on information provided by the BHCs, implementation of the proposed changes to FAS 140 could result in approximately $900 billion in assets being brought onto the balance sheets of these institutions. Risk‐weighted assets were increased by about $700 billion to reflect this projected consolidation. The on‐boarding of assets also factored into our assessment of ALLL needs, and those assets were treated as new loans.
HAHH hHAhAh LMAO
splat, it was rubbish from the first day it showed up on our doorstep. I always thought the gubmints job was to take away our trash, but apparently, in this upside down world, they now deliver it to you direct, wrapped in white paper.
The world will soon be 99% less consumers.
i don't really get it... did something happen? was something revealed?
is this another one of those obama et al 'comin' soon to a theater near you' things
wawawa--
BushCo occasionally told the truth, but I think it was only because they were so ignorant on the subject matter, their misinformed lies ended up being truthful.
Larry and Timmy will probably always skirt the truth.
its like a hollywood ending, everything really is alright. to the moon we go!
Ok, I am just a normal guy, I understand the basics/enough to get myself into trouble, but I am trying to wrap my head around this...
So the economy is in the shitter, got that
Banks are leveraged out the yang and the foundation of that leverage contains a lot of shitty assets, got that
The gov deems it necessary to keep them afloat, got that
Now, we "loan" the banks money to prop them up, go that
The banks now must both get themselves out of the hole they dug AND repay us the "loans"
How?
Seriously, how?
Note point one about the economy in the crapper, and I see no way for this crisis to turn itself around in the next year given that it took us almost two years to get here AND we still haven't reached a bottom yet.
So how can they expect us to believe that the banks are ok?
Seriously!
Let's talk about the validity of the Fed's prior assumptions.
The Fed ASSumed house prices were increasing due to income gains.
The Fed ASSumed the housing mess was limmited to subprime and that losses to the system would be between $50 - $100 billion max.
The Fed ASSumed that bankers were writing good loans based on sound economic demand not bubble demand.
The Fed ASSumed that derivatives made the system safer.
The fed ASSumed that additional leverage in the system would beneficially increase economic activity.
The Fed ASSumed household debt levels we appropriate.
The Fed ASSumed that stocks were fairly valued with their inane "fed model"
The Fed ASSumed that bankers would act responsibly.
Call me a skeptic, but I don't have any faith in the Fed or the current crop of banksters.
They are like Serial Merde'erers, shit happens.
uno mundo, "I apologize Otis. And I said 'if'. Just a hypothetical. Like the word 'butt squirt' """"
glad you came around. no hard feelings.
Simpler SCAT:
Pass
Fail
Charges Pending
Extraordinary Rendition in process
Top staff booked to go hunting with Cheney
"Did anyone expect anything else than bulls#1t ? Honestly ?"
It doesn't need to fool you.
It only needs to fool the average American.
Bloomberg currently shows the 10-Year Treasury rate is up at 2.99%....
I don't think they can hold it down much longer, at least not while expanding the government's debt at the recent pace. But who knows? Stranger things have happened in the past decade.
splat wrote:
"Wonder what the world would like like with 50% fewer people?"
Can I choose which people to keep ?
That reminds me of this Dr. Strangelove quote:
[Strangelove's plan for post-nuclear war survival involves living underground with a 10:1 female-to-male ratio]
General "Buck" Turgidson: Doctor, you mentioned the ratio of ten women to each man. Now, wouldn't that necessitate the abandonment of the so-called monogamous sexual relationship, I mean, as far as men were concerned?
Dr. Strangelove: Regrettably, yes. But it is, you know, a sacrifice required for the future of the human race. I hasten to add that since each man will be required to do prodigious... service along these lines, the women will have to be selected for their sexual characteristics which will have to be of a highly stimulating nature.
Ambassador de Sadesky: I must confess, you have an astonishingly good idea there, Doctor.
hey --- - .. ... .... . .-. - --.. is that you Otis or CR?
Skyin' 'em now.
By: Albert Bozzo, Senior Features Editor | 24 Apr 2009 | 02:17 PM ET
cnbc.com
The US government, releasing details of how it conducted "stress tests" on the nation's 19 largest financial institutions, said “most banks currently have capital levels well in excess of the amounts needed to be well capitalized."
In terms of GDP scenarios, the stress tests assume baseline levels of minus 2 percent in 2009 and plus 2.1 percent in 2010. (IMF already more negative stating in yet another downward revision, 2.8 contraction in 2009 and 1.5 expansion in 2010.-AM)
The adverse scenario levels are negative 3.3 percent this year and growth of just 0.5 percent next year
The administration said the tests were not "pass/fail". (If no one can fail than how can anyone pass?-AM)
[BRIEFING.COM] According to a government statement, the methodology used in conducting the government's bank stress tests was not intended to be a worst case scenario, and large banks need to hold additional capital, according to Dow Jones.
(Hope for the best, plan for the ... the... oh we can always make another plan later.-AM)
KEVIN DEPEW of Minyanville : The government views a 3.3% overall contraction with a 8.9% unemployment and a 14% decline in house prices this year followed by a rebound in GDP of .5%, a 10.3% unemployment rate and a 4% decline in home prices as the 'more adverse' scenario.
Not surprisingly, their worst case scenario is what I would consider a best case scenario for the economy. (Amen Brother Kevin. -AM)
So crisis is over...
Then there's no need to expand bailout facilities or request additional bailout money. The Fed's awesome report is essentially sealing talks of future bailout.
From that angle, I see it as a good thing, as the taxpayer won't be on the hook for the rest of the bailout money now.
So when will I get a raise again?
Shovel a couple billion more into financials and REITs, the pump job was getting stale.
Ok thx Otis
Today would be a good day to close a big bank----it is Friday. Is the large FDIC gang still enjoying PR?
"Then there's no need to expand bailout facilities or request additional bailout money."
Not so fast.
Comrade Lurker,
Banks need to raise capital - ergo - {temporarily} not only are the banks OK !! - there are GREEN SHOOTS. Get it ?
The Morse code for:
--- - .. ... .... . .-. - --..
is this:
OTISHERTZ
lifeguard1999 (profile) wrote:
"That reminds me of this Dr. Strangelove quote:"
My second favorite movie of all time and Peter Sellers best performances.
'most banks currently have 'taxpayer' capital levels well in excess...'
is the "white paper" about 3-4 inches wide, comes on a cardboard roll, has perforated sheets 3-4 inches long, and hopefully....quilted for softness? really? i thought so.
...prepare for fed launch...to 10k. this is change i can really believe in!
Otis,
I'm a little rusty on my Morris code. I'm working on 'stress test' code...
"Wonder what the world would like like with 50% fewer people?"
We can't afford to lose that many taxpayers.
Borocco Mama
I saw a white paper and I want it painted black.
Tremendous!
There will be 50% less taxpayers...due to ____ unemployment.
Could've made some shiny coin! I watched SPG go from 40 to now 51! wow! Every point it went up, I said "WOW", so I wowed about 11 times now, still wow-ing soon as it looks it'll break 52.
SPG would've been one of my best investment this year!! I really shoud've got in at 40.
It must be the next google at the rate that it's going.
i'm seriously considering locating to a new planet.
seriously. there must be a place where the adults behave like kids
and say what they mean and mean what they say.
Somebody is buying this market, but as my man said:
YouTube -
trolls and bots and stock pimpers have invaded this board. Assholes.
I am delighted with this report. First of all, I never ever never expected an accurate estimate from these guys. But I got the next best thing - transparency. Just reading these comments indicate that a second round of estimates will be demanded from stockholders, including the US government. Presumably, the next round of estimates will be a little more accurate and saner.
popeye,
Ohhhhh, the green shoots, brilliant!
"My second favorite movie of all time and Peter Sellers best performances."
I love that film, and Sellers was superb, as was the rest of the cast. But City Lights is my favorite. Aside from everything else that's great about it, you have the sub-theme, in which the millionaire loves Charlie when the millionaire is drunk, and kicks him out onto the street when he's sober. I have never seen a showing of that film in which the most of the audience isn't crying at the last scene, and that has nothing to do with the millionaire.
See this blog can survive wtihout 'filtering'...it is a test 'free market' scenario and if it works, that's a 'green shoot'...
many happy ppl in my office today... there 401ks rebounding very nicely. thank you my dear obama. smiles for geithner the genius!
:-)
Whew. its official, everything is fine. I was worried.
Guess this kills the secret Obama plan that he was actually going to hold any banksters accountable. Another secret Obama plan bites the dust. I think that's about 0 for 4 now. Whats the next secret plan, was it about stopping illegals by giving them amnesty or something?
stress test: ... - .-. . ... ... / - . ... -
I am delighted with this report. First of all, I never ever never expected an accurate estimate from these guys. But I got the next best thing - transparency. Just reading these comments indicate that a second round of estimates will be demanded from stockholders, including the US government. Presumably, the next round of estimates will be a little more accurate and saner.
I must have read another report?
All the media/govt media team is designed to keep the 'buyers' buying because buyers do still have some cash left and that cash is up for grabs...
yea growing my own food was hurting my back and raising my water bill. Spent $50 on compost and it takes forever to grow one lettuce. Then I see it advertised for 49c at the supermarket.
Can someone explain the Kermit and Elmo references?
Comrade Lurker,
Let the S&P cross 875 {for more than 15 minutes}, and I'll sing a different tune.
The problem is found in every sentence in the paper that contains "assumptions". They have rosy "baseline" assumptions on loan losses. They do not have any reliable assumptions on defaults until they review loan files. They didn't think it was necessary to review them 3-8 years ago, so they don't think there's any value in it now.
I'd like to look inside the cells in their Excel spreadsheets that contain the assumptions. The cells probably look like this:
=.1-.05-.01-.01-.004
"Ahhh, now it works!!"
YT,
Kermit is green {when the market is up}; Elmo is red {when the market is down}
Kermit = green
Elmo = red
Green is good. Green is the environment. Green is money. Green is the stock market going up.
Red is bad. Red is the stoplight you just ran that cost you a ticket. Red is Republicans and the cause of all evil in the world. Red is the stock market going down.
(Tongue planted firmly in cheek...)
"The cells probably look like this:
=.1-.05-.01-.01-.004"
It's called re-normalization. Not in economics, unfortunately.
"rolls and bots and stock pimpers have invaded this board. Assholes"
No.
It's just the PPT.
You mean the PPT was listening when I said 875 ?? Toast - oh mamma - I'm toast.
Who cares if half the U.S. is unemployed, as long as the half that is employed is the one paying taxes ...
[WSJ reference for those who missed it.]
Ari Fleischer Says It's Bad for Our Democracy to Exempt Half the Country From Income Taxes - WSJ.com
The acronym gamblers that must tell us their every move, are the most irritating.
many happy ppl in my office today... Well, Otis is not one of them. He thought that he had banked a 50% on BBBY
Good news. Revised estimate. The world will soon be 97% less consumers rather than the earlier estimate of 99%.
Gamblers Acronyminous?
Arbitrage Macht Frei,
No, my friend, the spot for "the most irritating" is reserved for folks who are politely asked not to offend, but choose to be offensive.
Somewhat OT, yet possibly a view of the future:
Unemployement rate in Spain rose to 17.4% in 1Q09. That's 4 Mio w/o a job out of a total population of 46 Mio (on the upside, 19 Mio still have a job)
I thought the bot went nuts the other night because I mentioned Senators ____________ & ____________ calling for a ______________. Details to be released later.
shorting has died today, sorry! the economy is ok!
"Gamblers Acronyminous?"
Acrimonious.
Go bears! Sell those banks while their prices are high.
Looks like they see those green shoots from the corner office as well...
Insider Selling Jumps to Highest Level Since 2007 (Update1)
By Michael Tsang and Eric Martin
April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Executives and insiders at U.S. companies are taking advantage of the steepest stock market gains since 1938 to unload shares at the fastest pace since the start of the bear market.
[snip]
Insiders from New York Stock Exchange-listed companies sold $8.32 worth of stock for every dollar bought in the first three weeks of April, according to Washington Service, which analyzes stock transactions of corporate insiders for more than 500 institutional clients.
That’s the fastest rate of selling since October 2007, when U.S. stocks peaked and the 17-month bear market that wiped out more than half the market value of U.S. companies began. The $42.5 million in insider purchases through April 20 would represent the smallest amount for a full month since July 1992, data going back more than 20 years show. That drop preceded a 2.4 percent slide in the S&P 500 in August 1992.
Insider Selling Jumps to Highest Level Since 2007 (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Stock market seems to be padding itself for loses ahead of the Chrysler bankruptcy.
Stock market seems to be padding itself for loses ahead of the Chrysler bankruptcy.
All reports on the net must be verified as the Turner release indicates. Guess it was just ALL baloney that 16 0f 19 are 'technically insolvent'. Guess the Martin Weiss research is not correct also.
Oh no! swine flu! curse you Mortgage Pig! all this time you had us watching the birds, but it was you swine, swine, swine!!!
Fighting Deadly Flu Outbreak, Mexico Shuts Schools for Millions - NY Times
Let's see, to close the week green:
DOW needs to beat 8,131.33
S&P500 needs to beat 869.60
NASDAQ needs to beat 1,673.07
R2K needs to beat 479.37
The Triumph of the Banking Oligarchs continues at huge taxpayer expense
popeye,
My father spent 6 long years in nazi-occupied Europe, so I know the horrors of World War 2 better than most. As much as some people would like to believe that only Jews suffered, i'll assure you that everybody got their share of evil that shows up every now and then, sometimes in the guise of the Gestapo and sometimes coming down the ramp of a Gulfstream V jet.
"Hedging Brings Freedom"
Wonder if WWII could have been avoided without the Crash?
Indebted is Well Capitalized
Spending is Saving
OT: Well if you want to know weird sit in a dodge dealership getting a tranny replaced while the news only tv cable station talks about chrysler bk every ten minutes. Everyone there pretending nothing happening. I think if I owned the place - I'd change the channel. Maybe that is just me.
Hope they got pizza nearby.
Glad I stayed away today....no wins or losses. Some got crushed.
Arbitrage Macht Frei,
My father became an Episcopalian minister after he served in World War 2. Some things I don't find funny. Your play on torture and pain and cruel death just happens to be one of them.
Michael,
AS for the OT con-trails link, do you have any solid links with good evidence of the 'cancer and respiratory problems' caused by aerial spraying?
A poem for the occasion:
In the Room of Lost Things
After the fire, things must have been tight for a while, all that
Contracted living. I close the eyes and the eyes step from their caves,
For a moment flash lights across epileptic fits and turns and sell
Visions before dawn. The sheds of vanities full now.
A pretty post office: small cards, high snow. We are here.
Because now even the cattle are mad, they do not hear the bell.
Because now wolves lurk again in darkness.
Because now the sheared wool of all times collects itself
In heaps of failure. Cotton undershirts, worn three times, dirty
And repaired by parents and passed
To brothers and sisters to brothers and sisters.
Where I look, the view from ash, in tears extinct.
Those on a last breath hope, which kindles them
Again, towards products of urgent necessity
And artificial illusion, speculation and acts.
For sale: white shirts, young hands, which do not embrace
Tenderness. Sad. As sad as the words of the south.
Others did not come at all.
They did not travel to this age--old loves kept them.
Our loved dead ones.
Our mothers eternally without embrace. At all the transit points,
At the border of every country,
At the edge of isolation of this room.
The man shoves a handful of cans aside, opens the suitcase
To reveal a chainsaw. Not allowed under current regulations.
They, we say, consist of variously motivated enemies
Who will have to learn to love us. Only then will we have won.
Treaty of Versailles.. led to Weimar hyperinflation.. Then led to Deflation.. which caused high unemployment.. which led to widespread poverty.. and the savings of middle class were already wiped out.. people lost faith in the old system.. Hitler had the "answers".
Do not blame me if we head down a similar path. remember that it was deflation, not inflation, that bought Hitler into power.
//Wonder if WWII could have been avoided without the Crash?//
"Let's see, to close the week green:
DOW needs to beat 8,131.33"
I call 8140
popeye,
Your father was a g.i. more than likely, that was on the outside looking in, and my father was on the inside looking out.
I doubt your dad showed you the spots in his town where the nazis lined up 10 people @ random and shot them, for every wehrmacht soldier that got offed by the resistance.
Don't be brainwashed by the blather on TV and the MSM about the stress tests. The jargon is designed to ease the taxpayer into accepting more looting. That's a good stupid taxpayer gimmy more of your hard earned money for my rich buddies. Don't buy it.
Please join your local chapter of Brainwashed Anonymous so you can more easily identify the brainwashing techniques used on you by the MSM.
Who cares if half the U.S. is unemployed, as long as the half that is employed is the one paying taxes ...
[WSJ reference for those who missed it.]
And I thought the WSJ didn't have a comics page.
Thanks, popeye.
Arbitrage,
What do you think of the high density exploding metal and depleted uranium shells that are used in 'warfare' today?
the banks must be saved at all costs. don't you see our way of life, our freedoms, would not be possible without banks?
Uno,
I live in Florida and the chemical con-trails have been noticeably absent for 5 days now. You can really notice the difference when they stop spraying for a while. They may have stopped because I've been complaining to the local TV station and going there in person, taking them by the scruff of the neck and showing them the sky.
Here's a good real news story where a lady explains the barium hazard an respiratory problems.
Chemtrail Weather Control - NBC4
YouTube - Chemtrail Weather Control - NBC4
Wow, love the charts. Look at GS gaming the system right at the end to get that positive weekly close.
Unfortunately, it's a little like herding cats. And that cats seem to have a mind of their own (locking in profit.).
I saw a white paper and I rolled some green shoots in it. Smoke up!
Hey Arbitrage, we have to tell our every move. Otherwise there won't be any proof when we claim later that we unloaded for a big profit.
Err, who pulled the string?
BAC for one was well over the "suggested" loss rates for unsecured consumer credit (Credit Cards, Other Consumer)