Ok, straighten me out here. Maybe I haven't been paying attention.
Regarding these stress tests....doesn't it all depend on the "toxic asset" evaluation during the test?
I mean, if these are now marked to myth, isn't it like taking a bottle of valium?
If so, there is no stress, it is receeding, they are all now comfortably numb.
A clutch of political and labour leaders in Germany have raised the spectre of civil unrest after the country's leading institutes forecast a 6pc contraction of gross domestic product this year, a slump reminiscent of 1931 and bad enough to drive unemployment to 4.7m by 2010
"A severe respiratory illness appears to have infected 137 people in south and central areas of Mexico, with cases concentrated in Mexico City and three other areas, including 20 deaths, the Public Health Agency of Canada said.
In the United States, health officials in Texas and California were scrambling this week to deal with a new strain of swine flu, which has been diagnosed in seven people"
Wall St mentality:
I'm getting bubba'd in prison, but his schlingading was smaller than expected... booyah!
Hopefully Bernanke, Paulsen, Geithner et al can have fun playing that game soon...
" JimPortlandOR (profile) wrote on Fri, 4/24/2009 - 10:26 am
Housing crisis is over! Credit crisis is behind us! Stocks are undervalued!
This message is brought to you by CNBC. "
"Mexico is canceling classes for millions of children in the heart of the country on Friday after influenza killed around 20 people in recent weeks." Page Not Found | Reuters.com
Odd news article on CNN via Drudge: U.S. and Chinese companies will sign over 30 contracts on Monday worth billions of dollars to American businesses, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said on Friday. Companies attending the signing ceremony include Fedex , Dell, Lenovo, and China Telecom , the business group said. (Editing by Derek Caney).
Home builder stocks rose after the government reported that sales of new homes slipped last month but still topped expectations. Investors were encouraged as builders start to see encouraging signs about the housing market.
cr:
Note the Red columns for 2009. This is the lowest sales for March since the Census Bureau started tracking sales in 1963. (NSA, 34 thousand new homes were sold in March 2009; the previous low was 36 thousand in March 1982).
The conspiracy nut within tells me this is all part of the bigger blame game that the powers that be want to perpetuate on all things Mexican, but the rational nut is telling me to go order a 20 pack of N95 masks online asap.
Additional Duty Location Info: Few vacancies - Elmendorf AFB, AK Few vacancies - Eielson AFB, AK Few vacancies - Maxwell AFB, AL Few vacancies - Peterson AFB, CO Few vacancies - Buckley ANG, CO Few vacancies - USAF Academy, CO Few vacancies - Schriever, CO Few vacancies - Bolling AFB, DC Few vacancies - Dover AFB, DE Few vacancies - Hickam AFB, HI Few vacancies - Mountain Home AFB, ID Few vacancies - Hanscom AFB, MA Few vacancies - Columbus AFB, MS Few vacancies - Malmstrom AFB, MT Few vacancies - Cannon AFB, NM Few vacancies - Kirtland AFB, NM Few vacancies - Holloman AFB, NM Few vacancies - Altus AFB, OK Few vacancies - Vance AFB, OK Few vacancies - Ellsworth AFB, SD Few vacancies - Hill AFB, UT Few vacancies - Little Rock AFB, AR Few vacancies - Luke AFB, AZ Few vacancies - Davis Monthan AFB, AZ Few vacancies - Beale AFB, CA Few vacancies - Travis AFB, CA Few vacancies - Vandenberg AFB, CA Few vacancies - Los Angeles AFB, CA Few vacancies - March AFB, CA Few vacancies - Edwards AFB, CA Few vacancies - Homestead AFB, FL Few vacancies - Eglin AFB, FL Few vacancies - Tyndall AFB, FL Few vacancies - Macdill AFB, FL Few vacancies - Patrick AFB, FL Few vacancies - Hurlburt Field, FL Few vacancies - Moody AFB, GA Few vacancies - Dobbins AFB, GA Few vacancies - Robins AFB, GA Few vacancies - Scott AFB, IL Few vacancies - McConnell AFB, KS Few vacancies - Barksdale AFB, LA Few vacancies - Andrews AFB, MD Few vacancies - Whiteman AFB, MO Few vacancies - Keesler AFB, MS Few vacancies - Seymour Johnson, NC Few vacancies - Pope AFB, NC Few vacancies - Offutt AFB, NE Few vacancies - McGuire AFB, NJ Few vacancies - Nellis AFB, NV Few vacancies - Wright Patterson, OH Few vacancies - Charleston AFB, SC Few vacancies - Shaw AFB, SC Few vacancies - Arnold AFB, TN Few vacancies - Sheppard AFB, TX Few vacancies - Dyess AFB, TX Few vacancies - Goodfellow AFB, TX Few vacancies - Laughlin AFB, TX Few vacancies - Brooks AFB, TX Few vacancies - Randolph AFB, TX Few vacancies - Lackland AFB, TX Few vacancies - Fairchild AFB, WA Few vacancies - McChord AFB, WA Few vacancies - FE Warren AFB, WY
MAJOR DUTIES:
Top
The primary purpose of this position is to serve as the Mortuary Affairs Officer (MAO), and provide for the logistics functions incident to the recovery, identification, care and disposition of remains of certain deceased personnel; assist Next of Kin (NOK); manage the Base Honor Guard Program; and manage the installation's Search and Recovery Program. Mortuary Affairs Management. Provides for the care and disposition of remains for certain deceased personnel. Receives notification of death, determines deceased eligibility for benefits, verifies who the next of kin (NOK) is to direct disposition of remains and personal property, and arranges for release of remains from the hospital or medical examiner. Installation Honor Guard Program Management: Provides for the rendering of ceremonial honors and military funerals. Acts as the installation manager of the honor guard. Search and Recovery Program. Provides for the search, recovery, and identification of remains following aircraft mishaps, natural disasters, or other mishaps causing multiple deaths.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: This position is currently a GS position. Upon conversion to the national security personnel system (NSPS) this position may be converted to a corresponding NSPS pay banded position at which time pay may be negotiated in accordance with NSPS regulations
On hosuing, the rinse wash repeat cycle by the Fed to buy this garbage mortgage paper that the banks are laundeing is a ponzi scheme. You are arguing volumes and price botton. But that seems counterintuitive. If volumes pick up it would imply a better economy (sans REO) and hence rates would go up. We know wages arn;t growing and leverage isn;t coming abck so exactly how does one justify stepping in to even a 4% mortgage? If you are making an argument you need to argue on price that the capoital loss will be offset by higher rates and you are back to arguing what the bulltards argued about price not mattering it is only the payment. not sure I think much of the volume numebrs are relevant. Who cares. We are war off fair value when analyzing prospectivily.
That addition information section is the kicker, "Upon conversion to the national security personnel system (NSPS) this position may be converted to a corresponding NSPS pay banded position at which time pay may be negotiated in accordance with NSPS regulations "
National Security? Domestic troubles acomming?
re: USAF mortuary affairs openings: they may be expecting high air crew casualties when B52s are shot down by Nat'l Guard units, especially over CA, AZ, NV, FL and others where excess housing inventory exists.
How much of earnings have been a result of living in an era of increasing leverage? How much of earnings growth was a result of living beyond our means? How much were earnings juiced by easy access to credit and lack of oversight?
What are corporate earnings going to look like with those factors now being reversed, and the other macro headwinds we’ve got to deal with like: the exploding deficit, social security, Medicare and an aging population? The answer is: I don’t know, no one truly knows until we stop contracting and see what normalized earnings look like in the “new normal”.
Maybe equity prices are currently priced for the new normal, but we will not know until we stop contracting, which is not apparently on the agenda for 2009, maybe 2010 or longer. So equity prices, the Green Shoot talk, does seem premature. That’s why I have sat out this rally – it’s too early.
Here's another way Bernanke is helping banks earn money and improve their balance sheets for the stress tests:
Banks hold treasuries and GSE paper as assets. So Bernanke enters the market and overpays for treasury and GSE paper. This immediately causes banks to incurr write-ups. No mark to myth in this senario either even though this is obviously not a true (free) market price. Add a little leverage and voila!, balance sheets suddenly look much better.
Who is going to pay for this free lunch for the bankers?
You say you want a revaluation
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
You tell me that it's financial evolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
But when you talk about debt destruction
Don't you know that you can count us in
Don't you know it's gonna be our last rites
All right, all right
The L-bottom in new homes sales may be here. But we won't know for sure until at least end of July when the June sales numbers come out. We won't be able to know whether it is a real rebound or just seasonality. Of course, you still couldn't give me home builder stock. At current sales levels there will be losses all around. And as starts stabilize, home builders will no longer be able to get cash out of working capital so their going to have to be positive cash flow to keep their lenders happy.
Bernanke and Greenspan are co-authoring a book due to hit the presses in late June called Preventing Correction: Financial Life Support For An Already Dead Patient.
"Friday, the World Health Organization expressed "heightened concern" on Friday over more than 800 "influenza-like" cases reported in Mexico"
If this is met with the same measures as SARS was in Asia, expect a lockdown on travel. It's like house arrest, and everything stops but essential, local, movement. E. Asian border crossings are mainly by sea and air however . . .
Idiot steve liesman on tv saying put up a chart of a health stock price s. the current stock price. is this guy serious? Health stock price? what exactly is that Steve one that reflects the mirage and is uinhinged from anyt semblence of fundamentals? The sad thing is he doesn't even know how stupid he sounds.
"The conspiracy nut within tells me this is all part of the bigger blame game that the powers that be want to perpetuate on all things Mexican, but the rational nut is telling me to go order a 20 pack of N95 masks online asap."
If you were a true conspiracy nut, you would think it was a way to reduce unemployment figures.
TFHB,
The NSPS is a new pay system that has been replacing the GS system for the Department of Defense. I think it was the brainchild of Rumsfeld way back. It's basically being sold as a "pay-for-performance" system; however I've been leery of the system as reports from the field indicate a lot of people are not getting their expected raises. For example, GS employees got a locality-based cost of living increase across the board. For those on NSPS I've heard that some have had this cost-of-living adjustment linked to their "performance" Anyone who works in the federal bureaucracy should know that government managers are fairly inept compared to their private company counterparts, hence the administration of this system is a nightmare. Of course, what's funny is that this ineptitude in management has led to the problems with the GS system (ie. no one pushes to fire anyone since just about everyone is mediocre!). The GS system would work if government organizations "companies" were allowed to fire... for some reason managers don't want to go through the process of reporting their employees up, putting them on some probationary terms and then canning them if they don't improve performance after a year.
It should be clear that I'm currently a GS position and have had concerns on falling into NSPS. I frankly like the fact that under the GS system my raises are guaranteed. With the GS system the "pot of money for raises" is guaranteed, even though the raises (or yearly performance bonuses) might not match what people get under NSPS. At some point I can envision the NSPS "pot of money for raises" shrinking or going to zero. Additional; I'm not sure "yearly performance bonuses" count towards government pensions as well (well, why the eff should I be worried about that? It's not like there will be any money left for me in 30 years).
One would think with my understanding of issues I should place myself in a management position... who knows. I hate the fact that my workplace is such a chaotic institution; although my job is great since I mostly deal with vendors and customers outside of my direct/local "chain of command". Hope this elucidates something for people; as this is one topic I've looked at a lot. Since I'm not on NSPS I can't call myself an expert on it... and it is unclear if the fears I mention are real or just things the union is saying (since NSPS was also used to break up unions).
“The numbers basically confirm that Treasury is going to have to take some TARP money and reimburse the Fed,” said Whalen, whose financial-services research company analyzes banks for investors. “It is essentially up to the Treasury to get the Fed out of this.”
FDIC gonna need more moola, Fed reserve needs more reserve. When an army is completely routed and demoralized, don't the victors rape, pillage, plunder the people before reaching terms? By people I mean taxpayers of course.
The hub makes are reasonably nice amount of money and has extremely competent people to work for/with.
Same at hurricane center when he worked for NOAA.
Same at Janet Reno's office.
He worked briefly for a NASA contractor in about 90 and it was not good.
His present contractors are excellent.
People in these sorts of areas do what they do because they love it, for the most part.
Why else would you fly thru a hurricane or stay up a couple of nites in a row to get a launch off? Luckily that doesn't happen too often.
So with Ken Lewis on the ropes (and possibly indicted in the near future) is it any surprise that the PPIP is failing as well? I'm telling you guys, the release of Lewis' testimony is a watershed event that will define the insider's game from here on out.
(also see http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTable?bm=y&-geo_id=01000US&-qr_name=ACS_2007_3YR_G00_S2501&-ds_name=ACS_2007_3YR_G00)
is titled Demographics and Depression. The author suggests that many of the houses built are swimming against the demographic tide. The number of "1950's" family grouping has held steady since Nixon. That is the number, while the percentage has declined drastically.
So there is an overhang of large multiple-bedroom houses which have no natural market.
More important to me is the .5% up/down per month is what price houses are being sold. Are there any differences in the lower and higher ends of the market?
If I owned an underwater McMansion and sold it at a loss to but a smaller house that would be two new sales.
So we still have little idea about where RE is going from raw numbers
what no comments?
1st no?
have faith, people are buying on credit again
if you don't read Popeye's comments somebody else will (maybe)
Housing crisis is over! Credit crisis is behind us! Stocks are undervalued!
This message is brought to you by CNBC.
Ok, straighten me out here. Maybe I haven't been paying attention.
Regarding these stress tests....doesn't it all depend on the "toxic asset" evaluation during the test?
I mean, if these are now marked to myth, isn't it like taking a bottle of valium?
If so, there is no stress, it is receeding, they are all now comfortably numb.
Ooooo, i LIKE the phrase comfortably numb. Where's my pacifier?
O/T
Yesterday it was France today Germany:
A clutch of political and labour leaders in Germany have raised the spectre of civil unrest after the country's leading institutes forecast a 6pc contraction of gross domestic product this year, a slump reminiscent of 1931 and bad enough to drive unemployment to 4.7m by 2010
Germany's slump risks 'explosive' mood as second banking crisis looms - Telegraph
The Saar Protectorate, or in this case a bunch of cooked to order numbers.
"A severe respiratory illness appears to have infected 137 people in south and central areas of Mexico, with cases concentrated in Mexico City and three other areas, including 20 deaths, the Public Health Agency of Canada said.
In the United States, health officials in Texas and California were scrambling this week to deal with a new strain of swine flu, which has been diagnosed in seven people"
CBC News - Health - Travel advisory warns of severe respiratory illness in Mexico
I still think the color scheme on that first chart really needs to be adjusted...
Heard the following, "The administration thinks the outcome of the stress tests may be better than some expect".
The graders predicting the outcomes!
What makes anyone not think the grades were assigned in advance and the tests will be constructed to meet the predetermined grades ?
Rioting in France is a common enough, a release valve of sorts sans guns.
What happens when our real American Heroes riot avec guns?
Wall St mentality:
I'm getting bubba'd in prison, but his schlingading was smaller than expected... booyah!
Hopefully Bernanke, Paulsen, Geithner et al can have fun playing that game soon...
We need a SAAR CZAR
Friday, the World Health Organization expressed "heightened concern" on Friday over more than 800 "influenza-like" cases reported in Mexico
" JimPortlandOR (profile) wrote on Fri, 4/24/2009 - 10:26 am
Housing crisis is over! Credit crisis is behind us! Stocks are undervalued!
This message is brought to you by CNBC. "
Someday this will be true.....maybe-
"Mexico is canceling classes for millions of children in the heart of the country on Friday after influenza killed around 20 people in recent weeks."
Page Not Found | Reuters.com
Anyone remember this
Calculated Risk: Contest: Predict New Home Sales
My guestimates were
2008 489k
2009 435k
Ah memories...
Ohhh, I hope that isn't the Mexican Black Swan event that I was musing about a few weeks ago.
But Plague is an honorable member of the 4 Horsemen and, I suppose, better than nuclear war.
"Friday, the World Health Organization expressed "heightened concern" on Friday over more than 800 "influenza-like" cases reported in Mexico"
Soon you will see people wearing masks to protect themselves from the flu virus.
First our economy turns Japanese and now this...
Odd news article on CNN via Drudge:
U.S. and Chinese companies will sign over 30 contracts on Monday worth billions of dollars to American businesses, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said on Friday. Companies attending the signing ceremony include Fedex , Dell, Lenovo, and China Telecom , the business group said. (Editing by Derek Caney).
Yes; let's dance with the devil some more...
Mystery Stock Theater 8000
Mexican influenza?
Nah, just bad dates...
"Ohhh, I hope that isn't the Mexican Black Swan event that I was musing about a few weeks ago."
Maybe it's the Martin Armstrong turning point.
Gosh, what are we selling them?
Treasury bills?
I saw all the headlines on this and thought it was good news.
Sales of U.S. New Homes in March Exceeded Forecast (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
yahoo finance:
Stocks Hold Gains as Home Sales Top Expectations.
Home builder stocks rose after the government reported that sales of new homes slipped last month but still topped expectations. Investors were encouraged as builders start to see encouraging signs about the housing market.
cr:
Note the Red columns for 2009. This is the lowest sales for March since the Census Bureau started tracking sales in 1963. (NSA, 34 thousand new homes were sold in March 2009; the previous low was 36 thousand in March 1982).
notice the difference
Can anyone link in CR's graph that showed seasonal home price fluctuations? I can't find the article.
Thanks,
The conspiracy nut within tells me this is all part of the bigger blame game that the powers that be want to perpetuate on all things Mexican, but the rational nut is telling me to go order a 20 pack of N95 masks online asap.
Oh yes, the modest recovery. Slow growing green shoots showered with somewhat obscured glimmering hope.
Would the BLS wear those funny white capon hats, have a bell ringer on the counter, and do short-order cooked books?
They could wear FASB aprons.
Today's lunch special:
Green shoots under the fingernails.
(waterboarding just $2 more)
No sharing plates.
green shoots gloamin in the glimmer of change.
A total of 34K new homes were sold in March 2009 - the lowest number of sales for the month of March in the history of the series going back to 1963.
The SAAR stuff is much less useful at inflection points and periods outside of long term trend lines.
The month to month comparisons make the headlines, but the more useful data is the yoy and longer term data.
We have way too many unoccupied housing units - 19 million per the census bureau.
when i was young in never would have imagined that spanish fly would be sold in 24 hour drive-thru drugstores at every major intersection.
such progress is the work of wankers
Today's lunch special:
Green shoots under the fingernails.
(waterboarding just $2 more)
No sharing plates.
And pirates for servers.
Green shoots turn red, impale glimmering hope... film at 11...
Perhaps this is a coincidence, but from USAJOBS.com
USAJOBS - Search Jobs
Apparently a popular posting...
AIr Force....
Mortuary Affairs Officer
Additional Duty Location Info: Few vacancies - Elmendorf AFB, AK Few vacancies - Eielson AFB, AK Few vacancies - Maxwell AFB, AL Few vacancies - Peterson AFB, CO Few vacancies - Buckley ANG, CO Few vacancies - USAF Academy, CO Few vacancies - Schriever, CO Few vacancies - Bolling AFB, DC Few vacancies - Dover AFB, DE Few vacancies - Hickam AFB, HI Few vacancies - Mountain Home AFB, ID Few vacancies - Hanscom AFB, MA Few vacancies - Columbus AFB, MS Few vacancies - Malmstrom AFB, MT Few vacancies - Cannon AFB, NM Few vacancies - Kirtland AFB, NM Few vacancies - Holloman AFB, NM Few vacancies - Altus AFB, OK Few vacancies - Vance AFB, OK Few vacancies - Ellsworth AFB, SD Few vacancies - Hill AFB, UT Few vacancies - Little Rock AFB, AR Few vacancies - Luke AFB, AZ Few vacancies - Davis Monthan AFB, AZ Few vacancies - Beale AFB, CA Few vacancies - Travis AFB, CA Few vacancies - Vandenberg AFB, CA Few vacancies - Los Angeles AFB, CA Few vacancies - March AFB, CA Few vacancies - Edwards AFB, CA Few vacancies - Homestead AFB, FL Few vacancies - Eglin AFB, FL Few vacancies - Tyndall AFB, FL Few vacancies - Macdill AFB, FL Few vacancies - Patrick AFB, FL Few vacancies - Hurlburt Field, FL Few vacancies - Moody AFB, GA Few vacancies - Dobbins AFB, GA Few vacancies - Robins AFB, GA Few vacancies - Scott AFB, IL Few vacancies - McConnell AFB, KS Few vacancies - Barksdale AFB, LA Few vacancies - Andrews AFB, MD Few vacancies - Whiteman AFB, MO Few vacancies - Keesler AFB, MS Few vacancies - Seymour Johnson, NC Few vacancies - Pope AFB, NC Few vacancies - Offutt AFB, NE Few vacancies - McGuire AFB, NJ Few vacancies - Nellis AFB, NV Few vacancies - Wright Patterson, OH Few vacancies - Charleston AFB, SC Few vacancies - Shaw AFB, SC Few vacancies - Arnold AFB, TN Few vacancies - Sheppard AFB, TX Few vacancies - Dyess AFB, TX Few vacancies - Goodfellow AFB, TX Few vacancies - Laughlin AFB, TX Few vacancies - Brooks AFB, TX Few vacancies - Randolph AFB, TX Few vacancies - Lackland AFB, TX Few vacancies - Fairchild AFB, WA Few vacancies - McChord AFB, WA Few vacancies - FE Warren AFB, WY
MAJOR DUTIES:
Top
The primary purpose of this position is to serve as the Mortuary Affairs Officer (MAO), and provide for the logistics functions incident to the recovery, identification, care and disposition of remains of certain deceased personnel; assist Next of Kin (NOK); manage the Base Honor Guard Program; and manage the installation's Search and Recovery Program. Mortuary Affairs Management. Provides for the care and disposition of remains for certain deceased personnel. Receives notification of death, determines deceased eligibility for benefits, verifies who the next of kin (NOK) is to direct disposition of remains and personal property, and arranges for release of remains from the hospital or medical examiner. Installation Honor Guard Program Management: Provides for the rendering of ceremonial honors and military funerals. Acts as the installation manager of the honor guard. Search and Recovery Program. Provides for the search, recovery, and identification of remains following aircraft mishaps, natural disasters, or other mishaps causing multiple deaths.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: This position is currently a GS position. Upon conversion to the national security personnel system (NSPS) this position may be converted to a corresponding NSPS pay banded position at which time pay may be negotiated in accordance with NSPS regulations
we should outsource our government to mexico.
Show me the jobs...
Wouldn't the moratorium on foreclosures be effecting the inventory levels? I think April might show these levels increasing again.
Mexican influenza is waging a turf war with the drug gangs. Both are viruses really.
CR,
On hosuing, the rinse wash repeat cycle by the Fed to buy this garbage mortgage paper that the banks are laundeing is a ponzi scheme. You are arguing volumes and price botton. But that seems counterintuitive. If volumes pick up it would imply a better economy (sans REO) and hence rates would go up. We know wages arn;t growing and leverage isn;t coming abck so exactly how does one justify stepping in to even a 4% mortgage? If you are making an argument you need to argue on price that the capoital loss will be offset by higher rates and you are back to arguing what the bulltards argued about price not mattering it is only the payment. not sure I think much of the volume numebrs are relevant. Who cares. We are war off fair value when analyzing prospectivily.
Wow S,
That addition information section is the kicker, "Upon conversion to the national security personnel system (NSPS) this position may be converted to a corresponding NSPS pay banded position at which time pay may be negotiated in accordance with NSPS regulations "
National Security? Domestic troubles acomming?
re: USAF mortuary affairs openings: they may be expecting high air crew casualties when B52s are shot down by Nat'l Guard units, especially over CA, AZ, NV, FL and others where excess housing inventory exists.
Such gooood, good news.
Soar, stock mkt, soar!!!
How much of earnings have been a result of living in an era of increasing leverage? How much of earnings growth was a result of living beyond our means? How much were earnings juiced by easy access to credit and lack of oversight?
What are corporate earnings going to look like with those factors now being reversed, and the other macro headwinds we’ve got to deal with like: the exploding deficit, social security, Medicare and an aging population? The answer is: I don’t know, no one truly knows until we stop contracting and see what normalized earnings look like in the “new normal”.
Maybe equity prices are currently priced for the new normal, but we will not know until we stop contracting, which is not apparently on the agenda for 2009, maybe 2010 or longer. So equity prices, the Green Shoot talk, does seem premature. That’s why I have sat out this rally – it’s too early.
Here's another way Bernanke is helping banks earn money and improve their balance sheets for the stress tests:
Banks hold treasuries and GSE paper as assets. So Bernanke enters the market and overpays for treasury and GSE paper. This immediately causes banks to incurr write-ups. No mark to myth in this senario either even though this is obviously not a true (free) market price. Add a little leverage and voila!, balance sheets suddenly look much better.
Who is going to pay for this free lunch for the bankers?
What a sham(e).
lest we forget
insiders transaction ratio:
http://online.barrons.com/edition/resources/media/b-insider.gif
There IS no normal.
Never was, never will be.
I want rim shots with all these one-liners
You say you want a revaluation
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
You tell me that it's financial evolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
But when you talk about debt destruction
Don't you know that you can count us in
Don't you know it's gonna be our last rites
All right, all right
hidden in plain sight...posting may mean absolutely nothing other than no one want to do that horrific job, but the just a data point..
The L-bottom in new homes sales may be here. But we won't know for sure until at least end of July when the June sales numbers come out. We won't be able to know whether it is a real rebound or just seasonality. Of course, you still couldn't give me home builder stock. At current sales levels there will be losses all around. And as starts stabilize, home builders will no longer be able to get cash out of working capital so their going to have to be positive cash flow to keep their lenders happy.
The local fish wrapper had an expert at a local meeting predicting a bottom, next year.
3rd (or 4th) half!!
People ask me about a real estate recovery, I say 5-10 years. They don't roll their eyes.
Bernanke and Greenspan are co-authoring a book due to hit the presses in late June called Preventing Correction: Financial Life Support For An Already Dead Patient.
"Friday, the World Health Organization expressed "heightened concern" on Friday over more than 800 "influenza-like" cases reported in Mexico"
If this is met with the same measures as SARS was in Asia, expect a lockdown on travel. It's like house arrest, and everything stops but essential, local, movement. E. Asian border crossings are mainly by sea and air however . . .
Idiot steve liesman on tv saying put up a chart of a health stock price s. the current stock price. is this guy serious? Health stock price? what exactly is that Steve one that reflects the mirage and is uinhinged from anyt semblence of fundamentals? The sad thing is he doesn't even know how stupid he sounds.
"The conspiracy nut within tells me this is all part of the bigger blame game that the powers that be want to perpetuate on all things Mexican, but the rational nut is telling me to go order a 20 pack of N95 masks online asap."
If you were a true conspiracy nut, you would think it was a way to reduce unemployment figures.
Good one, 'Bama!!
It feels like we are all the cast from "Weekend @ Bernie's" and Bernie is our belated economy that we try not to notice has already expired.
lawyer liz -- how difficult is it to homestead a plac ein fl if you are part time...
there will be a major correction of the markets... the markets are still on the blue pill
"I want rim shots with all these one-liners"
Kinky.
TFHB,
The NSPS is a new pay system that has been replacing the GS system for the Department of Defense. I think it was the brainchild of Rumsfeld way back. It's basically being sold as a "pay-for-performance" system; however I've been leery of the system as reports from the field indicate a lot of people are not getting their expected raises. For example, GS employees got a locality-based cost of living increase across the board. For those on NSPS I've heard that some have had this cost-of-living adjustment linked to their "performance" Anyone who works in the federal bureaucracy should know that government managers are fairly inept compared to their private company counterparts, hence the administration of this system is a nightmare. Of course, what's funny is that this ineptitude in management has led to the problems with the GS system (ie. no one pushes to fire anyone since just about everyone is mediocre!). The GS system would work if government organizations "companies" were allowed to fire... for some reason managers don't want to go through the process of reporting their employees up, putting them on some probationary terms and then canning them if they don't improve performance after a year.
It should be clear that I'm currently a GS position and have had concerns on falling into NSPS. I frankly like the fact that under the GS system my raises are guaranteed. With the GS system the "pot of money for raises" is guaranteed, even though the raises (or yearly performance bonuses) might not match what people get under NSPS. At some point I can envision the NSPS "pot of money for raises" shrinking or going to zero. Additional; I'm not sure "yearly performance bonuses" count towards government pensions as well (well, why the eff should I be worried about that? It's not like there will be any money left for me in 30 years).
One would think with my understanding of issues I should place myself in a management position... who knows. I hate the fact that my workplace is such a chaotic institution; although my job is great since I mostly deal with vendors and customers outside of my direct/local "chain of command". Hope this elucidates something for people; as this is one topic I've looked at a lot. Since I'm not on NSPS I can't call myself an expert on it... and it is unclear if the fears I mention are real or just things the union is saying (since NSPS was also used to break up unions).
Somebody really needs to do:
"Mystery Stock Theater 8000" with voiceovers of notoriously bad calls dredged from youtube, such as Jim Cramer.
You are supposed to reside in your homestead the majority of the time.
Nobody checks to see if you are there 3 nites a week or 4.
Have to show a utility bill.
Best not to push this too far, and really live there because they can go back 10 years and reassess taxes.
If you want to avoid attachment of judgments, best to buy a modest house.
Homehead has probate consequences too.
Kermit is waterboarding Elmo today.
“The numbers basically confirm that Treasury is going to have to take some TARP money and reimburse the Fed,” said Whalen, whose financial-services research company analyzes banks for investors. “It is essentially up to the Treasury to get the Fed out of this.”
The Market Ticker - Entries from Friday, April 24. 2009
FDIC gonna need more moola, Fed reserve needs more reserve. When an army is completely routed and demoralized, don't the victors rape, pillage, plunder the people before reaching terms? By people I mean taxpayers of course.
Whole books are written about Fl homestead, and reasonable experts disagree on some aspects.
"a lot of people are not getting their expected raise"
I suspect that's the point of the new system.
Sounds like it's working right.
ty
When cooking a book, is room temperature sufficient?
Anyone remember this
Mine were 490 / 350. Damn close to the current SAAR if I do say so myself. Hoocoodanode?
Update on new virus:
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Mexican Plague? My more paranoid side says, "a great way to restore full funding to pension plans."
The hub makes are reasonably nice amount of money and has extremely competent people to work for/with.
Same at hurricane center when he worked for NOAA.
Same at Janet Reno's office.
He worked briefly for a NASA contractor in about 90 and it was not good.
His present contractors are excellent.
People in these sorts of areas do what they do because they love it, for the most part.
Why else would you fly thru a hurricane or stay up a couple of nites in a row to get a launch off? Luckily that doesn't happen too often.
today will go down as the largest bullshit extravaganza in US history
Rob Dawg (homepage) wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 8:24 pm
Dawg's picks:
2008: 496K
2009: 492K
We won't know until rev. 3 Apr '09.
Yeast grows nicely at room temperature.
But the oven has to get hot to cook the bread!
ABF,
" Somebody really needs to do:
"Mystery Stock Theater 8000" "
What do you think this place is?
Push the button Frank.
Paging Evil Henry Paulson! Where are you, man?
"Note that new home inventory does not include many condos"
Heh, neither do new mortgage loans. Go figure.
How many banks will topple today?
Only the shadow knows!!!
Maybe none, 'cause they're saving up their people for BankU.
It's almost impossible to get a mtg loan on a condo in South Fla.
For very very good reasons.
So with Ken Lewis on the ropes (and possibly indicted in the near future) is it any surprise that the PPIP is failing as well? I'm telling you guys, the release of Lewis' testimony is a watershed event that will define the insider's game from here on out.
Demographics & Depression | First Things
(also see http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTable?bm=y&-geo_id=01000US&-qr_name=ACS_2007_3YR_G00_S2501&-ds_name=ACS_2007_3YR_G00)
is titled Demographics and Depression. The author suggests that many of the houses built are swimming against the demographic tide. The number of "1950's" family grouping has held steady since Nixon. That is the number, while the percentage has declined drastically.
So there is an overhang of large multiple-bedroom houses which have no natural market.
More important to me is the .5% up/down per month is what price houses are being sold. Are there any differences in the lower and higher ends of the market?
If I owned an underwater McMansion and sold it at a loss to but a smaller house that would be two new sales.
So we still have little idea about where RE is going from raw numbers
"It's almost impossible to get a mtg loan on a condo in South Fla"
Yes, but now you can buy a condo in South Fla with your Visa card.
Note that the median sales price of a new home is down 12% from a year ago and dropping.
Briefing.com: New Home Sales
Combination of less expensive homes and lower margin fro builders.