there is (some) good news.. AAPL's earnings.. also Credit Suisse.. I think unemployment increasing is really no surprise and even though more than expected, it always is more than expected... I think this doesnt affect the market tremendously
Looks to me like for the 2001 recession jobless claims remained "elevated" for 2 years. Also to a lesser extent in the early 90s. I wonder if that's typical with credit related recessions vs. classic inventory recessions.
If job losses "level out" where they are now for a couple of years it's going to be apocalyptic.
Wasn't it last week that the numbers were a bit down and people were talking about reaching a bottom?
So many graphs...
OT:
Local paper ran an above-the-fold article about the number of foreclosures in my county tripling. They then ran a quote from a local realtor, and it's a real money shot.
"It's easy to triple a small number and still not have it be that big."
For the record, our county filed 347 foreclosure notices in the first three months of 2009 versus 103 for first quarter 2008.
Nominally not bad versus other areas, but the realtor mentality just ticks me off.
i can see earnings being BTE at several marquis companies....less competition will funnel more $ their way even if the total pie is smaller, they can get a much bigger share thus increasing their earnings, also they have probably been cost cutting, etc. that will positively impact results for 1 year, then they start lapping those #s and they don't get those benefits twice, so beating future #s or posting same or better G rates will will much tougher. but it works for now.
Local paper ran an above-the-fold article about the number of foreclosures in my county tripling.
Same thing where I am. The bubble hit here about a year later than other areas and now the foreclosures are finally hitting. Since people I know are getting laid off now house payments are becoming a topic of conversation at lunch. A few people I've talked to (in relatively high-paying white collar professions) say they're one paycheck away from default and if they lose their jobs they're just walking away...
Bank of America Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis testified under oath that US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson pressured the bank to not discuss its plan to buy Merrill Lynch, the Wall Street Journal said.
One thing I don't understand is why people are walking away - isn't better to just stop paying and staying put - after all it is not like the bank is going to throw you out anytime soon.
"AAPL has performed 5 years of the greatest under promise and over deliver scheme in the history of U.S. corporations. If you’ve ever questioned the intelligence of the analyst community you need look no further than the 35 brave young men and women who follow Apple Corp. In case you’re not familiar with Apple, they generally sandbag their guidance (guide way under analyst estimates) and then outperform every quarter. The stocks’ performance afterwards has generally been on the positive side."
One thing I don't understand is why people are walking away - isn't better to just stop paying and staying put - after all it is not like the bank is going to throw you out anytime soon.
They 20 somethings I know seem to prefer going back to live with their parents.
"One thing I don't understand is why people are walking away - isn't better to just stop paying and staying put - after all it is not like the bank is going to throw you out anytime soon."
I was also wondering about that - if your plan is to walk away, should you just stop paying and wait for them to drag you away? Based on some of the posts here, you might get lucky and have several months of rent/mortgage free living.
I suspect that it's because most folks aren't aware that the banks/mortgage holders are letting things lag. The general thought is that if I'm not paying then I can't be here, so I'll rent a place where I can live.
Still some sense of honor amongst the people in a lot of places.
Personally, I've been working through the concept of ruthless default as a form of civil disobedience.
How is not paying the bills civil disobedience? Depends on whether you purposefully run up the card balances prior to default. If you do so, then there could be an argument that you've engaged in theft. But if it reaches the point where a sufficient number of people do it en masse, then the effect to the system could be major.
FWIW. this is an intellectual exercise that I'm having and not a push to actually do so.
Late to the party, so may have already been posted.
FT is reporting that Fiat has indicated it is in no hurry whatsoever to do anything with Chrysler. Translation IMO: the deal is off. Seven days just doesn't get it done ... nor does 60.
Maybe this will lead to a rise in entrepreneurialship.
even better, we get INCREASED PRODUCTIVITY!
the darling of Wall Street.
I agree with others, this jobs report is a nothingburger for the markets. they don't care anymore... comfortably numb I believe is the phrase
unless it's wall streeters getting unemployed, then per Cramer "the fed KNOWS NOTHING, THEY KNOW NOTHING"
but if it's the peons... well they deserve it. it's "rightsizing" or whatever. looks like we have a lot of rightsizing going on. who knew things could get so right?
as for staying in your home after foreclosure:
I think it would be stressful to stay in a home you've been foreclosed upon.
I'd rather pick up and just move on.
yes, I know it'd be cheaper to stay... but not from a mental health standpoint (for me anyway)
David Kellermann, acting chief financial officer of mortgage company Freddie Mac, apparently managed to kill himself by both a gun shot and hanging. It is unclear whether he got up on the chair, put the noose on, kicked away the chair and then shot himself, or whether he shot himself first, and then with all his dying energy climbed up on the chair, put the noose on, and then kicked away the chair. In any event, he is the undisputed winner of the 2009 Nobel Prize for Suicide (previous winners include Gary Webb, Steve Kangas, J. Clifford Baxter, Deborah Jeane Palfrey and Danny Casolaro). It is funny how, when officials lie, they can't even get the most rudimentary facts straight.
Freddie Mac was one of the two huge American financial operations that were bailed out by the American government in order to protect Chinese investments so the necessary life blood of the American empire, Chinese loans, would continue to flow. Those Wars For The Jews aren't cheap. You have to wonder what Kellermann knew, and what he might have been preparing to say. He "was working on the company's first-quarter financial report". There are often tell-tale hints: "Fearing that someone might attack his house, his wife or their 5-year-old daughter, he asked the company for a security detail."
The ex-CIA guy who allegedly set the targets on the Chinese embassy in Belgrade that was 'accidentally' bombed by the Americans also suffered a recent fatal mishap. Is a Chinese mop-up crew at work in the United States?
No problem just buy a bigger home. Gotta love real estate agent math,
“Do the math,” said agent Mark Zawideh, who has been selling homes in the suburbs west of Detroit, where prices have declined 18 percent in the last year alone. “If you’re in a $200,000 house (the median price in the area) and you lost 18 percent, that means you lost $36,000,” Zawideh said. “But if you’re moving up and buying a $500,000 house, that person just took a $90,000 loss, so you can see you’re making 54,000.”
Sounds like Kellermann was trying to do the right thing:
"Both the Washington Post and Wall Street Journal are reporting that Freddie Mac's Chief Financial Officer, David Kellermann, who was found dead Wednesday in an apparent suicide, was involved in recent months in a heated dispute with Freddie's regulator over how to reflect costs of President Obama's anti-foreclosure program.
The Post said Kellermann and other Freddie officials "tussled" with the Federal Housing Finance Agency early last month as the company prepared to file a quarterly report with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Top executives, including Kellermann, were insistent that Freddie Mac inform shareholders of the cost to the company of helping carry out the Obama administration's housing recovery plan, the two newspapers reported. The Post, citing several unnamed sources, said the regulators "urged the company not to do so." An unnamed FHFA official who spoke to the Post disputed that, "saying the regulator did not oppose disclosure but how the information was portrayed in the filing."
What happens as parents pull away the electronic technology tethers from teens, as they quite simply can't afford to have little Tommy or Terra texting away?
Here's what happens:
Kids are the arbiters of cool. They can make or break a product.
I suspect anything "tech" is going to all of the sudden be most uncool, amongst youngsters. A defense mechanism of sorts to compensate for their tethers being unplugged by their parents.
Reminds me of a talk I had with my Russian landlord in Moscow, as the Union was collapsing. I said to him that if the IMF comes in here they will be running your government. He replied: "Please."
A common thread to the build-up towards the French Revolution and the perfect maelstrom headed our way, was the prevalence of gambling, which became quite commonplace amongst the hoi polloi of then and now.
"Moody’s Investors Service has cut the Latvian and Lithuanian credit ratings, Bloomberg reported April 23. Latvia, the hardest-hit state in the European Union, had its rating cut from BAA3 to BAA1, and Lithuania’s was cut from A3 to A2. Moody’s also confirmed Estonia’s A1 rating, and said all three countries have a negative outlook."
Arbitrage Macht Frei writes: "A common thread to the build-up towards the French Revolution and the perfect maelstrom headed our way, was the prevalence of gambling, which became quite commonplace amongst the hoi polloi of then and now."
I'd be willing to lay you odds that you're wrong about this.
Yes, a very big story - the question has just been whom and when since Zardari backed down - in addition to control of the nuclear arsenal, the fates of Pakistan and Afghanistan are joined at the hip.
I would expect the regional players to be very sweaty about the whole thing as well...downside scenario is an operation touching off a nuke at (pick your nightmare - mine is Ras Tanura).
The Phony War economically since the carnage of early September is coming to a conclusion, almost as if on the same schedule as the previous pregnant pause of 1939-40
The 'Taliban' is a figment of Zibg Brezinski and the ever helpful US media lackeys. What you presumably unkowingly call the "Taiban", or the "students" are the Pashtun, the original majority population of Afghanistan and the locally controlled tribal areas of Pakistan. They were divided by the British in the Durand line on both sides of the Pakistan border.
If only Americans knew that relaying their government's interventionist war propaganda could improve their son's life expectancy, US foreign policy might look different.
I think you'll find that in fact French gambling didn't really take off until the revolution had already started. It wasn't legalized until a decade or so after the revolution. Sources normally attribute the game of craps to French refugees picking up the game in England en-route to the Americas.
Google world news page was showing nearly 1800 links as of 9:45 am.
I was being overly dramatic in my earlier post, but as MrM / nova says, this has the potential to be HUGE.
I'm not too concerned for the U.S. right now, because I seriously doubt the Chinese are going to put up with this BS on there border. Plus, there's India & its 1 billion+ people in the way ....
I'm not too concerned for the U.S. right now, because I seriously doubt the Chinese are going to put up with this BS on there border. Plus, there's India & its 1 billion+ people in the way ....
Do you even know what you're talking about? Oh noes, your country's little imperial occupation state is collapsing. That's because it's totally illegitimate and has no identity outside of US funded military apparatus. Oh right, you're getting ready to kill a few tens of million people with nuclear weapons and their aftermath because your country sucks at the game of empire you want to get them all in the mental dustbin of "mad dog terrorists" before the hammer drops.
Must be easy when the world is a 4-color cartoon strip lacking ambiguity. Gee I wonder why this stuff is even of the most vanishing relevance to you, other than you keep sticking your fuckin nose in and killing people, thus pissing off their uncles and nephews. WTF is in Pakistan you want to get at again, other than some people you are fighting with because you want to get into Pakistan to fight them?
I own a retail business and commercial property (in central virginia). Judging from my business and talking to my tenants I'm seeing a plateau (at a significant double digit lower level) but no rebound. The problem is that many small businesses can not sustain that drop in revenue very long without having to make major cut backs or throw in the towel.
I've said it before I'll say it again. 2008 the year of the cash burn - 2009 the year of the capitulation.
OT, but since someone mentioned cell phones and kids. my 11 year old daughter is in 5th grade. yesterday a cell phone rang in class, the teacher asked all student with cell phones to go make sure they were turned to silent (phones are stored in backpacks in back of room). Of 25 students, only two did not won cell phones, my daughter and another kid. My daughter was embarrassed and wants a cell phone. i don't see a reason for an 11 year old to have a cell phone. am i just way to old fashioned? curious to hear what you nut jobs have to say.
You're reading way too much into what I wrote. If you don't think this is an important story, just say so. I have an idea about this region since I've traveled there extensively. I was in China this past January for most of the month. I reasonably sure the Chinese won't tolerate a nuclear Islamic fundamentalist state on its border. Disagree?
Byz,
Pax Americana is an excellent analogy. We thought that was contained as well. It's a good thing all these international tensions are contained to the sub-prime nations.
black dog wrote on Thu, 4/23/2009 - 10:02 am I own a retail business and commercial property (in central virginia). Judging from my business and talking to my tenants I'm seeing a plateau (at a significant double digit lower level) but no rebound. The problem is that many small businesses can not sustain that drop in revenue very long without having to make major cut backs or throw in the towel.
I think this is going to be the trend going forward. big drop, between 10 and 25% in gross activity, followed by a wobbly period of people squeezing by on cash reserves (we're there now) followed by a broader-based downturn as it turns out their ain't no great cocoa hope.
'I was also wondering about that - if your plan is to walk away, should you just stop paying and wait for them to drag you away? Based on some of the posts here, you might get lucky and have several months of rent/mortgage free living.'
And the truly responsible deadbeats save up all that non-paid money to make a downpayment on a rental property - if they get lucky, they can even rent in the same neighborhood. Such people are just following their rational financial interest, which means judging them in any way but applauding them for their sagacity in simply robbing Peter the bank to pay Paul the landlord is not polite.
Especially since Paul the landlord might be doing the same thing, though that would make him part of the problem, and a clear demonstration of what has gone so badly wrong in our bankrupt nation.
The Pak gov't conceded the Tribal Areas Sharia as part of a "peace" deal months ago. This is not really news. Nor is it news that Bhutto's husband is a shill, a US prop and weak. The ISIS and military remain firmly in control, despite the move to reinstall the Judiciary. One need look no further than the assasination of bhutto and how it was handled. Shuffled off after the shots, no autopsy etc. Makes you wonder why all these guys who "commit suicide" do not scribble a note and send it out to the MSM or hand it off before they string up the rope. by the way, Rham Emmanuel was on the board of Freddie as well.
i agree, we have four daughters and we're a 1 income family (mom has hands full raising 4 daughters)....a cell phone is a WANT, not a need. tell me i'm not effed with four weedings and college to pay for. pray i win the lottery or receive TARP.
"Orakzai Agency residents have been told by the Pakistani government via airdropped leaflets to evacuate the area before a major military assault on Taliban militants, the Daily Times reported April 23. Pakistani Army helicopter gunships and jets have begun attacking Taliban positions in Ghaljo, Mohjir Camp and Garhi areas."
Well, back to unemployment...the Hamptons market is taking more hits, as unemployment in the financial sector and portfolio losses drive listings...
April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices in the Hamptons, the oceanside getaway of celebrities and Wall Street financiers, plummeted in the first quarter as the financial crisis cut demand for vacation properties.
The median price fell 23 percent from a year earlier to $675,000. Sellers offered average discounts of 11 percent off their asking price, up from 9.6 percent in the year-earlier quarter, New York appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate said today in a report.
pavel.chichikov (profile) wrote on Thu, 4/23/2009 - 10:13 am reply "I reasonably sure the Chinese won't tolerate a nuclear Islamic fundamentalist state on its border."
If so, what then?
Pavel Chichikov :
I don't know.
But let them take care of the problem. It's not our problem and we've got plenty right here.
maybe I should rethink my decision to return to NYC, savings go quite fast there....
this is OT/ but does anyone know a good lawyer in the Evansville or Terre Haute, Indiana part of that state?
my case involves a swindle of a good chunk of money in a nearby town and I don't want home cooking back room deal making....
"we have four daughters and we're a 1 income family (mom has hands full raising 4 daughters)....a cell phone is a WANT, not a need. tell me i'm not effed with four weedings and college to pay for."
With all that estrogen blowing around, I suspect you will losing your hairline before long. That and 5 women on the same cycle?
Samdog (profile) wrote on Thu, 4/23/2009 - 10:06 am
Byzantine_Ruins
You're reading way too much into what I wrote. If you don't think this is an important story, just say so.
It's incredibly important, but you are not going to find the outcome the way you are looking.
I have an idea about this region since I've traveled there extensively.
There is no such thing as "Pakistan". It's a post-colonial construction that has been a vehicle for kleptocracy and alien occupation. It is an illegitimate state that existed only because America and to a lesser extent China kept it propped up. It's going to collapse now, because the American empire is bankrupt. If you don't like that, try making better decisions, oh, around 30 years ago.
I was in China this past January for most of the month. I reasonably sure the Chinese won't tolerate a nuclear Islamic fundamentalist state on its border. Disagree?
It's an interesting question, given that they helped to make that state, as a source of illicit nuclear technology! I don't think the question is, will they tolerate it. I think the question is, what alternatives do they see themselves as having, and are they skilled enough to attain the response they frame.
The Chinese suck even worse than Americans at the Great Game. Nothing in the generic "Chinese experience" prepares them for this. Also, they are as fucked as America. Not really up for a trans-Himilayan Vietnam, I don't think. India, if anyone, will stage the response, as they have the actual permeable border.
One of the secretaries came into my office and shut the door. It is usually problems with co-workers. Anyways, I told her she had the option of not paying her house note and saving the money. I also told not to empty her 401(k) trying to hold onto the house. She is only 7 years away from retirement and will never make that money back in time.
We talked about how at 28 and even 38 you can bounce back from these kind of things as you figure time is on your side. At 58 she is out of time. How many are like her out there? Hopefully not many but I doubt it.
I assure you that if you return to The Big Apple, your savings will be very, very safe, and go a long way. We like rich people here, and we do everything we can to keep them here.
"At 58 she is out of time. How many are like her out there? "
More then you may think. My sibling is one who started to see reality a few years ago when she listen to me about how money really works. She will come up short at retirement time but far from broke like the path she was on.
"The Chinese suck even worse than Americans at the Great Game. Nothing in the generic "Chinese experience" prepares them for this. Also, they are as fucked as America. "
Hahahaha no. They have tons of reserve money and a huge manufacturing base. They're well positioned to take the #1 spot after America and Europe go down, swamped in public and private debt.
"Not really up for a trans-Himilayan Vietnam, I don't think. India, if anyone, will stage the response, as they have the actual permeable border. "
India couldn't swat a fly with a bazooka, their military is totally inept. Plus, as a democracy, they'd be hampered by bullshit rules of engagement while a Taliban controlled Pakistan would actually care about the whole "winning" thing.
(Crain's) — Chicago-area home sales fell 26% in March and sales in the city plunged 42%, according to the Illinois Assn. of Realtors.
The median sale prices in the Chicago area and the city also fell significantly compared with March 2008, according to a release Thursday from the Realtors’ group.
In the nine-county Chicago region, 4,260 single-family homes and condominiums were sold last month, compared with 5,759 sales in March 2008, the association said.
In the city of Chicago, sales fell 42.2% in March, to 1,181 compared with 2,044 in March 2008.
Chicago-area median price — where half the homes sold for more and half sold for less — was $194,000 in March, down 21.8% from $248,000 in March 2008, the Realtors’ group said.
The median price in the city was $220,000 in March, down 26.9% from $300,980 in March 2008.
Statewide sales fell 21.18% in March to 6,944 homes, compared with 8,799 in March 2008, the Realtors’ group said.
Hahahaha no. They have tons of reserve money and a huge manufacturing base. They're well positioned to take the #1 spot after America and Europe go down, swamped in public and private debt.
No, the sino-american bubble was a bubble on their side too. You're using an analytic frame rooted in a single-actor perspective. the New Classical World won't have a clear hegemon in the Colonial sense because the root of the whole Colonial adventure was uneven distribution of technical understanding and means that gave the European states an advantage that allowed them to wage asymmetric war against non-European institutions without having to control the territory. The next time that sort of thing has a chance to develop will be orbitals exploiting the advantage of the gravity well.
India couldn't swat a fly with a bazooka, their military is totally inept. Plus, as a democracy, they'd be hampered by bullshit rules of engagement while a Taliban controlled Pakistan would actually care about the whole "winning" thing.
I see we're still at the "macho man" stage of military thinking. The troops don't matter, they'd be good enough to dust jihadis in a fight. I mean, bring support arms and you win. The question is, the quality of the administrative means they deploy to consolidate. That's really what matters in wars of conquest. The actual fighting is so trivial and counterproductive that if you didn't have to do it to win, you'd omit it.
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 4/23/2009 - 10:06 am
Byz,
Pax Americana is an excellent analogy. We thought that was contained as well. It's a good thing all these international tensions are contained to the sub-prime nations.
Our mute testament to history, leverage cuts both ways.
i don't think it is function of credit related rather than inventory. I think it has more to do with manufacturing versus services.
Past recessions (last century) were a function of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates that caused demand to fall inventories to rise. When the economy was heavily into manufacturing the response was to layoff workers until the inventories were back to normal and then they were all hired back once production resumed at normal levels. The layoffs were quick and the hire backs were quick.
Fast forward to a service economy- inventories are not the issue final sales are. Businesses hang onto to their people even in the face of declining sales-when things get bad they lay people off which are also accompanied by a business closing down. Thus new hiring also requires the re-establishment of new business. Thus you get job losses much more slowly and the hiring is equally slowly since sales don't recover has fast as an inventory correction.
Pakistan's basic problem is that without Islam they are essentially second class Indians. Bangladesh has a Bengali identity that transcends Islam-i.e. they could be a nation without Islam. In Pakistan this would be true of their various provinces but not of the nation. In fact their national language Urdu is not the mother tongue of any of its provinces- that is how artificial the state is.
The United States should be aggressively forcing a break up of Pakistan. Broken into four states it could and would not look for parity with India. The individual provinces will reach their accommodations with India prickly but essentially peaceful (much like Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka)
Wait for the GM and Chrysler fall out, then you'll have some real unemployment numbers. If the govt. doesn't backstop those two, even as a job creation scheme, expect 20%+.
Remember the volume of non-military manufacturing we have left on-shore is automobile related, with that severely cut back who's going to buy the cap'n'trade carbon credits ??!??
Ooooh, the rats turn on each other as the ship sinks. Stay tuned...more will come. Saw this up close & personal during a lengthy U.S. GAO investigation.
CR, on the unemployment claims charts: can you add shaded areas for recession start and end points? Some economists (Econbrowser has some good articles on this) say that the peak in unemployment claims marks the end of a recession. It would be useful to see recessionary periods on these charts. Great work!
We need to bring back the Wright Model B to cheer us up.
I guess Nemo went to the bathroom and I'm filling in.
Maybe this will lead to a rise in entrepreneurialship.
Mortgage Pig is back!
That makes me happy.
I wonder how much the market will be up today on this good news. Green shoots indeed.
there is (some) good news.. AAPL's earnings.. also Credit Suisse.. I think unemployment increasing is really no surprise and even though more than expected, it always is more than expected... I think this doesnt affect the market tremendously
don't forget options expire this week - always adds to the fun.
Looks to me like for the 2001 recession jobless claims remained "elevated" for 2 years. Also to a lesser extent in the early 90s. I wonder if that's typical with credit related recessions vs. classic inventory recessions.
If job losses "level out" where they are now for a couple of years it's going to be apocalyptic.
Wasn't it last week that the numbers were a bit down and people were talking about reaching a bottom?
So many graphs...
OT:
Local paper ran an above-the-fold article about the number of foreclosures in my county tripling. They then ran a quote from a local realtor, and it's a real money shot.
"It's easy to triple a small number and still not have it be that big."
For the record, our county filed 347 foreclosure notices in the first three months of 2009 versus 103 for first quarter 2008.
Nominally not bad versus other areas, but the realtor mentality just ticks me off.
i can see earnings being BTE at several marquis companies....less competition will funnel more $ their way even if the total pie is smaller, they can get a much bigger share thus increasing their earnings, also they have probably been cost cutting, etc. that will positively impact results for 1 year, then they start lapping those #s and they don't get those benefits twice, so beating future #s or posting same or better G rates will will much tougher. but it works for now.
conjure will tell but my crystal ball is pointing to a new retail oops in the coming months
Local paper ran an above-the-fold article about the number of foreclosures in my county tripling.
Same thing where I am. The bubble hit here about a year later than other areas and now the foreclosures are finally hitting. Since people I know are getting laid off now house payments are becoming a topic of conversation at lunch. A few people I've talked to (in relatively high-paying white collar professions) say they're one paycheck away from default and if they lose their jobs they're just walking away...
Does anyone else expect the existing home sales headline number to be much better than expectations?
Lewis Says US Urged Silence on Merrill Deal: Report
Fed Says Didn't Advise BofA's Lewis on Disclosure - CEOs * US * News * Story - CNBC.com
Bank of America Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis testified under oath that US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson pressured the bank to not discuss its plan to buy Merrill Lynch, the Wall Street Journal said.
Smell a class action suit coming up...
One thing I don't understand is why people are walking away - isn't better to just stop paying and staying put - after all it is not like the bank is going to throw you out anytime soon.
AAPL beat because analysts are stupid:
"AAPL has performed 5 years of the greatest under promise and over deliver scheme in the history of U.S. corporations. If you’ve ever questioned the intelligence of the analyst community you need look no further than the 35 brave young men and women who follow Apple Corp. In case you’re not familiar with Apple, they generally sandbag their guidance (guide way under analyst estimates) and then outperform every quarter. The stocks’ performance afterwards has generally been on the positive side."
THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST » » THE ANALYSTS STILL DON’T GET IT
OT note to Ken Cooper.
Thanks for the work on this new comments section. You've done a terrific job on it and it is appreciated...
opex was last Friday, pop
In the four weeks ending last Friday, we had 127 NOD in our town of 31K here in southern Oregon. Realitors are still
spouting gibberish about now is a great time to buy.
[don't forget options expire this week ]
What options ??
One thing I don't understand is why people are walking away - isn't better to just stop paying and staying put - after all it is not like the bank is going to throw you out anytime soon.
They 20 somethings I know seem to prefer going back to live with their parents.
"One thing I don't understand is why people are walking away - isn't better to just stop paying and staying put - after all it is not like the bank is going to throw you out anytime soon."
I was also wondering about that - if your plan is to walk away, should you just stop paying and wait for them to drag you away? Based on some of the posts here, you might get lucky and have several months of rent/mortgage free living.
opex was last Friday, pop
I seriously need to take a day off - my mistake.
ill dilettante:
I suspect that it's because most folks aren't aware that the banks/mortgage holders are letting things lag. The general thought is that if I'm not paying then I can't be here, so I'll rent a place where I can live.
Still some sense of honor amongst the people in a lot of places.
Personally, I've been working through the concept of ruthless default as a form of civil disobedience.
How is not paying the bills civil disobedience? Depends on whether you purposefully run up the card balances prior to default. If you do so, then there could be an argument that you've engaged in theft. But if it reaches the point where a sufficient number of people do it en masse, then the effect to the system could be major.
FWIW. this is an intellectual exercise that I'm having and not a push to actually do so.
Of course, that's liable to change.
Does anyone else expect the existing home sales headline number to be much better than expectations?
It could be, and that would be a nice excuse to pump the market up 300 points today.
But the recent readings on mortgage purchase apps aren't indicative of a rebound (except in refinancing).
I think we might have seen a boost from an early Spring.
from Corrente by lambert
Nassim Nicholas Taleb:
"In France in the 1980s, the socialists took over the banks. In the US in the 2000s, the banks took over the government. This is surreal."
Late to the party, so may have already been posted.
FT is reporting that Fiat has indicated it is in no hurry whatsoever to do anything with Chrysler. Translation IMO: the deal is off. Seven days just doesn't get it done ... nor does 60.
"Claim Jumpers"
Maybe this will lead to a rise in entrepreneurialship.
even better, we get INCREASED PRODUCTIVITY!
the darling of Wall Street.
I agree with others, this jobs report is a nothingburger for the markets. they don't care anymore... comfortably numb I believe is the phrase
unless it's wall streeters getting unemployed, then per Cramer "the fed KNOWS NOTHING, THEY KNOW NOTHING"
but if it's the peons... well they deserve it. it's "rightsizing" or whatever. looks like we have a lot of rightsizing going on. who knew things could get so right?
as for staying in your home after foreclosure:
I think it would be stressful to stay in a home you've been foreclosed upon.
I'd rather pick up and just move on.
yes, I know it'd be cheaper to stay... but not from a mental health standpoint (for me anyway)
David Kellermann, acting chief financial officer of mortgage company Freddie Mac, apparently managed to kill himself by both a gun shot and hanging. It is unclear whether he got up on the chair, put the noose on, kicked away the chair and then shot himself, or whether he shot himself first, and then with all his dying energy climbed up on the chair, put the noose on, and then kicked away the chair. In any event, he is the undisputed winner of the 2009 Nobel Prize for Suicide (previous winners include Gary Webb, Steve Kangas, J. Clifford Baxter, Deborah Jeane Palfrey and Danny Casolaro). It is funny how, when officials lie, they can't even get the most rudimentary facts straight.
Freddie Mac was one of the two huge American financial operations that were bailed out by the American government in order to protect Chinese investments so the necessary life blood of the American empire, Chinese loans, would continue to flow. Those Wars For The Jews aren't cheap. You have to wonder what Kellermann knew, and what he might have been preparing to say. He "was working on the company's first-quarter financial report". There are often tell-tale hints: "Fearing that someone might attack his house, his wife or their 5-year-old daughter, he asked the company for a security detail."
The ex-CIA guy who allegedly set the targets on the Chinese embassy in Belgrade that was 'accidentally' bombed by the Americans also suffered a recent fatal mishap. Is a Chinese mop-up crew at work in the United States?
Source:
xymphora
http://rattube.com/2009/04/22/freddie-mac-cfo-suicide-by-hanging-or-gunshot-wound/
Those green shoots turned out to be unemployment shooting up
duh... I mean it would be stressful being in a home that's been NOD'ed.
Well, it is shooting up. And I do feel a little green looking at it ... maybe that's what he meant afterall....
No problem just buy a bigger home. Gotta love real estate agent math,
“Do the math,” said agent Mark Zawideh, who has been selling homes in the suburbs west of Detroit, where prices have declined 18 percent in the last year alone. “If you’re in a $200,000 house (the median price in the area) and you lost 18 percent, that means you lost $36,000,” Zawideh said. “But if you’re moving up and buying a $500,000 house, that person just took a $90,000 loss, so you can see you’re making 54,000.”
They 20 somethings I know seem to prefer going back to live with their parents.
I bet their parents would be thrilled to hear that.
"Gotta love real estate agent math"
That is not a very nice thing to say. What has math ever done to you?
you bad brown bears will have to admit that this time the trend is in line with ... the trend
Sounds like Kellermann was trying to do the right thing:
"Both the Washington Post and Wall Street Journal are reporting that Freddie Mac's Chief Financial Officer, David Kellermann, who was found dead Wednesday in an apparent suicide, was involved in recent months in a heated dispute with Freddie's regulator over how to reflect costs of President Obama's anti-foreclosure program.
The Post said Kellermann and other Freddie officials "tussled" with the Federal Housing Finance Agency early last month as the company prepared to file a quarterly report with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Top executives, including Kellermann, were insistent that Freddie Mac inform shareholders of the cost to the company of helping carry out the Obama administration's housing recovery plan, the two newspapers reported. The Post, citing several unnamed sources, said the regulators "urged the company not to do so." An unnamed FHFA official who spoke to the Post disputed that, "saying the regulator did not oppose disclosure but how the information was portrayed in the filing."
Josh Gerstein's Blog: Was Freddie pressured to toe Obama line? - POLITICO.com
Pakistani Civil War has begun this morning; democratically elected government vs the Taliban/al Qaeda.
Winner gets its pick of legal system/government and access to ready-to-use nuclear weapons arsenal.
OT, but potentially an important story....
Do you have a link to the story you are referring to, Samdog?
HR 1207 is more critical now than ever after the Ken Lewis/BAC/Merrill shakedown by Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke.
Bernanke, Paulson and a host of others should be under investigation.
Audit the Federal Reserve: HR 1207 and S 604 | Ron Paul .com
What happens as parents pull away the electronic technology tethers from teens, as they quite simply can't afford to have little Tommy or Terra texting away?
Here's what happens:
Kids are the arbiters of cool. They can make or break a product.
I suspect anything "tech" is going to all of the sudden be most uncool, amongst youngsters. A defense mechanism of sorts to compensate for their tethers being unplugged by their parents.
"In France in the 1980s, the socialists took over the banks. In the US in the 2000s, the banks took over the government. This is surreal."
Sounds like the bankers know how to learn from history.
Too bad the government doesn't.
If I am doing the math correctly we just broke through the 1948 and 1958 relative jobs loses to record the most percentage drop after 16 months.
CR,
Could you add your "diffusion index" graph to this set to illustrate the point?
"Pakistani Civil War has begun this morning; democratically elected government vs the Taliban/al Qaeda."
Link?
More bad news for Fifth/Third Bank
Fifth Third Beats Estimates Even as Bad Loans Rise (Update5) - Bloomberg.com
I ran the words "anti-foreclosure plan" through the sham decoder and here are the results:
Anti-foreclosure plan = debt slavery plan = banker bailout plan = taxpayer losses
The facts have been distorted to protect the guilty.
Speaking of unemployment......Where I grew up!
YouTube - Sam Roberts - Detroit '67 - Official Music Video
Decent tune
Link to the Pakistan situation
Pakistan sends troops to area grabbed by Taliban - CNN.com
Does not look large scale, but who knows how it will develop
" the banks took over the government."
Maybe, but if so, can they govern?
Reminds me of a talk I had with my Russian landlord in Moscow, as the Union was collapsing. I said to him that if the IMF comes in here they will be running your government. He replied: "Please."
Oooh. Looks like my Radio Shack, TV converter box, bet is paying off.
A common thread to the build-up towards the French Revolution and the perfect maelstrom headed our way, was the prevalence of gambling, which became quite commonplace amongst the hoi polloi of then and now.
samdog:
you're right, a failed state in pakistan bodes ill for the region and the world.
If I am doing the math correctly we just broke through the 1948 and 1958 relative jobs loses to record the most percentage drop after 16 months.
Rob Dawg,
The longer term picture is even bleaker imo. Total employment and aggregate hours have barely increased in a decade. Unprecidented.
Good thing households have been prudent with debt and savings over the last 10 years.
"Moody’s Investors Service has cut the Latvian and Lithuanian credit ratings, Bloomberg reported April 23. Latvia, the hardest-hit state in the European Union, had its rating cut from BAA3 to BAA1, and Lithuania’s was cut from A3 to A2. Moody’s also confirmed Estonia’s A1 rating, and said all three countries have a negative outlook."
Samdog,
You are right. A huge story.
Arbitrage Macht Frei writes: "A common thread to the build-up towards the French Revolution and the perfect maelstrom headed our way, was the prevalence of gambling, which became quite commonplace amongst the hoi polloi of then and now."
I'd be willing to lay you odds that you're wrong about this.
Samdog,
Yes, a very big story - the question has just been whom and when since Zardari backed down - in addition to control of the nuclear arsenal, the fates of Pakistan and Afghanistan are joined at the hip.
I would expect the regional players to be very sweaty about the whole thing as well...downside scenario is an operation touching off a nuke at (pick your nightmare - mine is Ras Tanura).
The Phony War economically since the carnage of early September is coming to a conclusion, almost as if on the same schedule as the previous pregnant pause of 1939-40
Uninformed nonsense, Nova.
The 'Taliban' is a figment of Zibg Brezinski and the ever helpful US media lackeys. What you presumably unkowingly call the "Taiban", or the "students" are the Pashtun, the original majority population of Afghanistan and the locally controlled tribal areas of Pakistan. They were divided by the British in the Durand line on both sides of the Pakistan border.
If only Americans knew that relaying their government's interventionist war propaganda could improve their son's life expectancy, US foreign policy might look different.
## I'd be willing to lay you odds that you're wrong about this.
The Indian "gaming" casinos are the next Las Vegas. All the worst of discretionary product, CRE and RRE exposure.
Samdog (profile) wrote on Thu, 4/23/2009 - 9:34 am
Pakistani Civil War has begun this morning; democratically elected government
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
vs the Taliban/al Qaeda.
Already over. Lost almost a decade ago.
"Claimistan"
ah, irredentism...
NOT relaying...
I think you'll find that in fact French gambling didn't really take off until the revolution had already started. It wasn't legalized until a decade or so after the revolution. Sources normally attribute the game of craps to French refugees picking up the game in England en-route to the Americas.
The exception would be the lottery, which was definitely instituted prior to the revolution in France, though.
OT,
Companies screened for (1) price to cash under three, (2) Debt-to-Equity ratio under three and (3) Market Cap greater than $2.5 million:
Does More Cash and Less Debt Equal Stock Market Gains? -- Seeking Alpha
MrM, thanks.
Here's another link:
BBC NEWS | South Asia | Pakistan bid to stop Taleban push
Google world news page was showing nearly 1800 links as of 9:45 am.
I was being overly dramatic in my earlier post, but as MrM / nova says, this has the potential to be HUGE.
I'm not too concerned for the U.S. right now, because I seriously doubt the Chinese are going to put up with this BS on there border. Plus, there's India & its 1 billion+ people in the way ....
John Law set up a casino eCONomy in France. Legal, but founded on lies. Doomed to failure like all ponzi schemes.
Welcome to the People's Republic of Claimistan...
Car Talk, this is interesting. Fiat buying Opel stock.
Automobile Crisis: Fiat Seeks Majority Stake in Opel - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International
Very good analogy Arbitrage!
I'm not too concerned for the U.S. right now, because I seriously doubt the Chinese are going to put up with this BS on there border. Plus, there's India & its 1 billion+ people in the way ....
Do you even know what you're talking about? Oh noes, your country's little imperial occupation state is collapsing. That's because it's totally illegitimate and has no identity outside of US funded military apparatus. Oh right, you're getting ready to kill a few tens of million people with nuclear weapons and their aftermath because your country sucks at the game of empire you want to get them all in the mental dustbin of "mad dog terrorists" before the hammer drops.
Must be easy when the world is a 4-color cartoon strip lacking ambiguity. Gee I wonder why this stuff is even of the most vanishing relevance to you, other than you keep sticking your fuckin nose in and killing people, thus pissing off their uncles and nephews. WTF is in Pakistan you want to get at again, other than some people you are fighting with because you want to get into Pakistan to fight them?
10:00 AM ET, Apr 23, 2009
10:00 AM ET, Apr 23, 2009
Popeye:
Point 3. TAKE THE MARKET ON THAT
I'm not surprised by these numbers.
I own a retail business and commercial property (in central virginia). Judging from my business and talking to my tenants I'm seeing a plateau (at a significant double digit lower level) but no rebound. The problem is that many small businesses can not sustain that drop in revenue very long without having to make major cut backs or throw in the towel.
I've said it before I'll say it again. 2008 the year of the cash burn - 2009 the year of the capitulation.
OT, but since someone mentioned cell phones and kids. my 11 year old daughter is in 5th grade. yesterday a cell phone rang in class, the teacher asked all student with cell phones to go make sure they were turned to silent (phones are stored in backpacks in back of room). Of 25 students, only two did not won cell phones, my daughter and another kid. My daughter was embarrassed and wants a cell phone. i don't see a reason for an 11 year old to have a cell phone. am i just way to old fashioned? curious to hear what you nut jobs have to say.
popeye, many thanks for link and data!
Byzantine_Ruins
You're reading way too much into what I wrote. If you don't think this is an important story, just say so. I have an idea about this region since I've traveled there extensively. I was in China this past January for most of the month. I reasonably sure the Chinese won't tolerate a nuclear Islamic fundamentalist state on its border. Disagree?
Byz,
Pax Americana is an excellent analogy. We thought that was contained as well. It's a good thing all these international tensions are contained to the sub-prime nations.
black dog wrote on Thu, 4/23/2009 - 10:02 am
I own a retail business and commercial property (in central virginia). Judging from my business and talking to my tenants I'm seeing a plateau (at a significant double digit lower level) but no rebound. The problem is that many small businesses can not sustain that drop in revenue very long without having to make major cut backs or throw in the towel.
I think this is going to be the trend going forward. big drop, between 10 and 25% in gross activity, followed by a wobbly period of people squeezing by on cash reserves (we're there now) followed by a broader-based downturn as it turns out their ain't no great cocoa hope.
'I was also wondering about that - if your plan is to walk away, should you just stop paying and wait for them to drag you away? Based on some of the posts here, you might get lucky and have several months of rent/mortgage free living.'
And the truly responsible deadbeats save up all that non-paid money to make a downpayment on a rental property - if they get lucky, they can even rent in the same neighborhood. Such people are just following their rational financial interest, which means judging them in any way but applauding them for their sagacity in simply robbing Peter the bank to pay Paul the landlord is not polite.
Especially since Paul the landlord might be doing the same thing, though that would make him part of the problem, and a clear demonstration of what has gone so badly wrong in our bankrupt nation.
By the way, I am personally opposed to US intervention and am (was) hoping, though not expecting, Obama will get our troops out of Europe and Asia.
Cell phones for kids are strictly wants, not needs.
2-income families need only lose 1 job, and watch how fast the kids go live, unplugged.
The Pak gov't conceded the Tribal Areas Sharia as part of a "peace" deal months ago. This is not really news. Nor is it news that Bhutto's husband is a shill, a US prop and weak. The ISIS and military remain firmly in control, despite the move to reinstall the Judiciary. One need look no further than the assasination of bhutto and how it was handled. Shuffled off after the shots, no autopsy etc. Makes you wonder why all these guys who "commit suicide" do not scribble a note and send it out to the MSM or hand it off before they string up the rope. by the way, Rham Emmanuel was on the board of Freddie as well.
arbeit:
i agree, we have four daughters and we're a 1 income family (mom has hands full raising 4 daughters)....a cell phone is a WANT, not a need. tell me i'm not effed with four weedings and college to pay for. pray i win the lottery or receive TARP.
Regarding Walkaways: the window is closing. Bush's suspension of the federal tax on mortgage forgiveness ends in December 2009 (iirc).
'squeezing by on cash reserves'
Perhaps a more accurate phrasing is squeezing out the last dregs of debt reserves.
"Orakzai Agency residents have been told by the Pakistani government via airdropped leaflets to evacuate the area before a major military assault on Taliban militants, the Daily Times reported April 23. Pakistani Army helicopter gunships and jets have begun attacking Taliban positions in Ghaljo, Mohjir Camp and Garhi areas."
But Taliban should stay so so we can attack you.
the man from nantucket,
63% of NP students here are in poverty. That many cell phone would prove poverty pay very well!
Mac Daddy is up to it's eyeballs in deceit and dirty deeds, done not so dirt cheap.
Arbitrage Macht Frei wrote on Thu, 4/23/2009 - 7:08 am reply
Cell phones for kids are strictly wants, not needs.
Speak for yourself. We save more in gas than the celphones for our kids cost nevermind time and peace of mind.
"I reasonably sure the Chinese won't tolerate a nuclear Islamic fundamentalist state on its border."
If so, what then?
Well, back to unemployment...the Hamptons market is taking more hits, as unemployment in the financial sector and portfolio losses drive listings...
April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices in the Hamptons, the oceanside getaway of celebrities and Wall Street financiers, plummeted in the first quarter as the financial crisis cut demand for vacation properties.
The median price fell 23 percent from a year earlier to $675,000. Sellers offered average discounts of 11 percent off their asking price, up from 9.6 percent in the year-earlier quarter, New York appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate said today in a report.
"I've said it before I'll say it again. 2008 the year of the cash burn - 2009 the year of the capitulation."
"Buyer Beware: 30 Biggest Bankruptcy Risks"
[ a list of companies that may not survive based on CDS spreads ]
Buyer Beware: 30 Biggest Bankruptcy Risks -- Seeking Alpha
UPS's results today are much more significant to the economy than what Apple posted last night (strength based on one specialized product).
RD,
They got you by the tetherballs, old chum.
'If I am doing the math correctly we just broke through the 1948 and 1958 relative jobs loses to record the most percentage drop after 16 months.'
You are actually using current American government statistics to compare with generations older ones?
Right. We 'just' broke through a while ago.
Regarding cell phones:
Check this out. Even our homeless have cell phones. Is it any wonder our banks are broke?
Michelle Obama's soup-kitchen duty: The Swamp
Times sure are tough. We really need to steal your savings to get credit flowing again.
pavel.chichikov (profile) wrote on Thu, 4/23/2009 - 10:13 am reply "I reasonably sure the Chinese won't tolerate a nuclear Islamic fundamentalist state on its border."
If so, what then?
Pavel Chichikov :
I don't know.
But let them take care of the problem. It's not our problem and we've got plenty right here.
Can't believe these morons are still laying people off. Don't they know the recovery is coming in the 2nd half?
maybe I should rethink my decision to return to NYC, savings go quite fast there....
this is OT/ but does anyone know a good lawyer in the Evansville or Terre Haute, Indiana part of that state?
my case involves a swindle of a good chunk of money in a nearby town and I don't want home cooking back room deal making....
"we have four daughters and we're a 1 income family (mom has hands full raising 4 daughters)....a cell phone is a WANT, not a need. tell me i'm not effed with four weedings and college to pay for."
With all that estrogen blowing around, I suspect you will losing your hairline before long. That and 5 women on the same cycle?
Samdog (profile) wrote on Thu, 4/23/2009 - 10:06 am
Byzantine_Ruins
You're reading way too much into what I wrote. If you don't think this is an important story, just say so.
It's incredibly important, but you are not going to find the outcome the way you are looking.
I have an idea about this region since I've traveled there extensively.
There is no such thing as "Pakistan". It's a post-colonial construction that has been a vehicle for kleptocracy and alien occupation. It is an illegitimate state that existed only because America and to a lesser extent China kept it propped up. It's going to collapse now, because the American empire is bankrupt. If you don't like that, try making better decisions, oh, around 30 years ago.
I was in China this past January for most of the month. I reasonably sure the Chinese won't tolerate a nuclear Islamic fundamentalist state on its border. Disagree?
It's an interesting question, given that they helped to make that state, as a source of illicit nuclear technology! I don't think the question is, will they tolerate it. I think the question is, what alternatives do they see themselves as having, and are they skilled enough to attain the response they frame.
The Chinese suck even worse than Americans at the Great Game. Nothing in the generic "Chinese experience" prepares them for this. Also, they are as fucked as America. Not really up for a trans-Himilayan Vietnam, I don't think. India, if anyone, will stage the response, as they have the actual permeable border.
One of the secretaries came into my office and shut the door. It is usually problems with co-workers. Anyways, I told her she had the option of not paying her house note and saving the money. I also told not to empty her 401(k) trying to hold onto the house. She is only 7 years away from retirement and will never make that money back in time.
We talked about how at 28 and even 38 you can bounce back from these kind of things as you figure time is on your side. At 58 she is out of time. How many are like her out there? Hopefully not many but I doubt it.
Mr. Duke,
I assure you that if you return to The Big Apple, your savings will be very, very safe, and go a long way. We like rich people here, and we do everything we can to keep them here.
She is only 7 years away from retirement and will never make that money back in time.
Feh. She's 58. We can squeeze another dozen years of servitude out of her easy.
"India, if anyone, will stage the response, as they have the actual permeable border. "
Agree, totally. Particularly after the recent terrorist actions.
"At 58 she is out of time. How many are like her out there? "
More then you may think. My sibling is one who started to see reality a few years ago when she listen to me about how money really works. She will come up short at retirement time but far from broke like the path she was on.
"The Chinese suck even worse than Americans at the Great Game. Nothing in the generic "Chinese experience" prepares them for this. Also, they are as fucked as America. "
Hahahaha no. They have tons of reserve money and a huge manufacturing base. They're well positioned to take the #1 spot after America and Europe go down, swamped in public and private debt.
"Not really up for a trans-Himilayan Vietnam, I don't think. India, if anyone, will stage the response, as they have the actual permeable border. "
India couldn't swat a fly with a bazooka, their military is totally inept. Plus, as a democracy, they'd be hampered by bullshit rules of engagement while a Taliban controlled Pakistan would actually care about the whole "winning" thing.
(Crain's) — Chicago-area home sales fell 26% in March and sales in the city plunged 42%, according to the Illinois Assn. of Realtors.
The median sale prices in the Chicago area and the city also fell significantly compared with March 2008, according to a release Thursday from the Realtors’ group.
In the nine-county Chicago region, 4,260 single-family homes and condominiums were sold last month, compared with 5,759 sales in March 2008, the association said.
In the city of Chicago, sales fell 42.2% in March, to 1,181 compared with 2,044 in March 2008.
Chicago-area median price — where half the homes sold for more and half sold for less — was $194,000 in March, down 21.8% from $248,000 in March 2008, the Realtors’ group said.
The median price in the city was $220,000 in March, down 26.9% from $300,980 in March 2008.
Statewide sales fell 21.18% in March to 6,944 homes, compared with 8,799 in March 2008, the Realtors’ group said.
Shovel ready teardowns soon...
SP_Immortal wrote on Thu, 4/23/2009 - 10:39 am
Hahahaha no. They have tons of reserve money and a huge manufacturing base. They're well positioned to take the #1 spot after America and Europe go down, swamped in public and private debt.
No, the sino-american bubble was a bubble on their side too. You're using an analytic frame rooted in a single-actor perspective. the New Classical World won't have a clear hegemon in the Colonial sense because the root of the whole Colonial adventure was uneven distribution of technical understanding and means that gave the European states an advantage that allowed them to wage asymmetric war against non-European institutions without having to control the territory. The next time that sort of thing has a chance to develop will be orbitals exploiting the advantage of the gravity well.
India couldn't swat a fly with a bazooka, their military is totally inept. Plus, as a democracy, they'd be hampered by bullshit rules of engagement while a Taliban controlled Pakistan would actually care about the whole "winning" thing.
I see we're still at the "macho man" stage of military thinking. The troops don't matter, they'd be good enough to dust jihadis in a fight. I mean, bring support arms and you win. The question is, the quality of the administrative means they deploy to consolidate. That's really what matters in wars of conquest. The actual fighting is so trivial and counterproductive that if you didn't have to do it to win, you'd omit it.
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 4/23/2009 - 10:06 am
Byz,
Pax Americana is an excellent analogy. We thought that was contained as well. It's a good thing all these international tensions are contained to the sub-prime nations.
Our mute testament to history, leverage cuts both ways.
i don't think it is function of credit related rather than inventory. I think it has more to do with manufacturing versus services.
Past recessions (last century) were a function of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates that caused demand to fall inventories to rise. When the economy was heavily into manufacturing the response was to layoff workers until the inventories were back to normal and then they were all hired back once production resumed at normal levels. The layoffs were quick and the hire backs were quick.
Fast forward to a service economy- inventories are not the issue final sales are. Businesses hang onto to their people even in the face of declining sales-when things get bad they lay people off which are also accompanied by a business closing down. Thus new hiring also requires the re-establishment of new business. Thus you get job losses much more slowly and the hiring is equally slowly since sales don't recover has fast as an inventory correction.
Pakistan's basic problem is that without Islam they are essentially second class Indians. Bangladesh has a Bengali identity that transcends Islam-i.e. they could be a nation without Islam. In Pakistan this would be true of their various provinces but not of the nation. In fact their national language Urdu is not the mother tongue of any of its provinces- that is how artificial the state is.
The United States should be aggressively forcing a break up of Pakistan. Broken into four states it could and would not look for parity with India. The individual provinces will reach their accommodations with India prickly but essentially peaceful (much like Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka)
Wait for the GM and Chrysler fall out, then you'll have some real unemployment numbers. If the govt. doesn't backstop those two, even as a job creation scheme, expect 20%+.
Remember the volume of non-military manufacturing we have left on-shore is automobile related, with that severely cut back who's going to buy the cap'n'trade carbon credits ??!??
Ooooh, the rats turn on each other as the ship sinks. Stay tuned...more will come. Saw this up close & personal during a lengthy U.S. GAO investigation.
Mark: Same with eBay. PayPal's doing great so far, but core auction business is sinking. And there's a problem with patents on Skype.
Anon:
"No problem just buy a bigger home. Gotta love real estate agent math..."
The glass is always half full when you're a relitter.
CR, on the unemployment claims charts: can you add shaded areas for recession start and end points? Some economists (Econbrowser has some good articles on this) say that the peak in unemployment claims marks the end of a recession. It would be useful to see recessionary periods on these charts. Great work!
"this jobs report is a nothingburger for the markets..."
Is there a point where the unemployed not any longer blindly contributing to their 401Ks puts a dent in the market?