OT--but very interesting--- study of San Diego housing market shows likely next wave down in housing prices there due to surging NOD's.
Foreclosure Pipeline Supply About to Overwhelm Market
New Notice-of-Default (NOD) filings in San Diego County are surging. Nearly 4000 new defaults hit in March alone while total sales were roughly 3000. NOD is Stage 1 of the foreclosure process that happens after a borrower misses 3-4 payments. From here the banks/servicers will try to modify the mortgages and those that are not modified will go to stage 2 — Notice-of-Trustee Sale (NTS) within 4-5 months. Due to epidemic negative equity, weak sales and few financing options for many, the amount of NOD’s that will make it all the way to foreclosure is very high.
If the reason is not gas being expensive this time, we should look at people saving their cars and extending their life expectancy!
Plus many other reasons...
Rob Dawg (member) wrote on Wed, 4/22/2009 - 10:56 am
Gas glut coming?
This is an interesting aspect of the decline of animal labor.
After the great epizootic, there must have been a sectoral boom in horse breeding. This crash -- initiated by the gas crisis -- brings sectoral destruction to the auto industry. Both were probably hard on feed providers.
Interesting trend in capital development over time, don't think I have anything else to say about it. Just something to notice.
Having the price of gas at or below $2 a gallon during a huge government revenue shortage can only lead to higher gas taxes with the canard of saving the environment.
I don't manage somehow to connect commodity bubble (at least gasoline, long since debubbled) impacting vehicle miles driven.
I'm saying there was downside distortion to miles driven last year when oil was near $150 that might actually making coming YoY comparisons more favorable than they really are (as they pertain to the economy).
Geithner fixed Whalen with a vacant gaze and simply moved to another questioner, mumbling that he wasn’t prepared to answer the question.
Whalen was stunned. “It seemed to me that he had no idea what I was talking about,” he recalls. As for the look: “Think Bambi looking into the headlights on an 18-wheeler.”
I suggest looking at VMT per capita first. It is very revealing, both of the driving trends and real dates. The behavior tracks beautifully against gasoline pricing, which explains almost all the variations. Economic factors other than gasoline pricing do not show up as a statistically significant predictor. That remains true even for current driving.
In terms of VMT per capita, the 1973 crisis occurred with a far lower travel rate. There was less room for decline before hitting critical uses. The other thing that is apparent is that per capita, the decline began in 2005-2006. You can make an approximate statement that per capita use drops when gasoline prices are above $2.00 (constant 2005 dollars) and increases when prices are below $1.75.
A lot of these effects are obscured if you only look at year to year variation.
Gasoline is long since debubbled? (Is that even a word?) It was last July that we saw prices over $5 per gallon. I agree that the bubble popped, but I disagree that it was long ago. Besides, just wait for hurricane season...
proves what i've been seeing on the charts. the author's conclusion is:
"I have no doubt that the existence of these funds exacerbated the selling pressure in the market "
i contend they do the opposite. they take selling pressure off stocks by sending negative sentiment funds to "money heaven". silly yahoo.
have you noticed the forex action. correlations to the stock market are faltering. this AM currencies rallied while futures plumetted. here is an article on the subject:
OT, but I've been doing a little research, and I'm betting there's going to be an explosion of indoor marijuana cultivation in this country, what with all the cheap CRE and foreclosures knocking around and people looking for something cheap and calming to occupy themselves with...
bloomberg - "M/I Homes Inc. led gains in all 13 companies in a gauge of homebuilders as the Federal Housing Finance Agency said home prices advanced 0.7 percent in February from the previous month."
I though other RE indexes indicated Home Prices fell..., well if THE party says we must pass the stress test, FHFA (& us) must follow. We must do whatever it takes, go home loan rate of 2% go !!!
The U.S. Treasury Department and the regulator for Freddie Mac (FRE) expressed grief over the death of acting Freddie Mac Chief Financial Officer David Kellermann, who was found dead Wednesday morning at his northern Virginia home.
Well, the spot price of oil, a poor indicator, is at 48 dollars a barrel currently. Anyone taking bets on how many megaprojects in the ocean depths and the frozen tundra are currently being funded to keep up with the fact that oil fields mature?
'Maturing' having much the same gentle meaning as passed away, though in this case, the strippers are generally the only things left after the maturing is over.
Hoops,we have 12 (12!) hydroponics outlets in my town of less than 9,000 people (8,000 souls,lots of realtors) and some of them are big.I heard some months ago at gossip central that a lot of folks who bought too much house were turning the 5th and 6th bedrooms into grow rooms to meet their expenses...
" Tom Stone (member) wrote on Wed, 4/22/2009 - 8:28 am
Hoops,we have 12 (12!) hydroponics outlets in my town of less than 9,000 people (8,000 souls,lots of realtors) and some of them are big.I heard some months ago at gossip central that a lot of folks who bought too much house were turning the 5th and 6th bedrooms into grow rooms to meet their expenses...
Tom Stone"
12? You guys are even bigger stoners than us down in Santa Cruz; we only have two.
We've always had grow houses down here, even at the height of the bubble. All you need is a big empty house, preferably isolated but not necessarily. The only difference now is that there are more empty houses, and more desperate homeowners. Who will face the usual hazards:
1) PG&E narking out to law enforcement about suspicious spikes in power usage in residential neighborhoods.
2) The distributors they sell to informing on them to the cops
The pros know about these things, and still get caught.
Bob Dobbs (member) wrote on Wed, 4/22/2009 - 8:29 am reply
"The other big users of vehicle miles are business travel and vacation. If a company cuts back on meetings, that can do a lot. "
A factoid that drifted in from the electronic media into my head: air travel and hotel occupancy are both down. Both business travel and tourism.
Santa Barbara hotel tax revenues -24%yoy last month. Room performance on Hawaii near decade lows (excepting 9/11).
"Having the price of gas at or below $2 a gallon during a huge government revenue shortage can only lead to higher gas taxes with the canard of saving the environment."
Some states are looking at a tax based on miles driven (because cars are becoming more fuel efficient).
Saving money in the long run, who wants a return of the Hummer (no, not that one)?
//Having the price of gas at or below $2 a gallon during a huge government revenue shortage can only lead to higher gas taxes with the canard of saving the environment.//
We wouldn't want to discriminate against conspicuous consumption behavior. I'll bet my state of IL is one of them. The license for my plastic kayak (no motor) leads me to suspect them deeply.
//Some states are looking at a tax based on miles driven (because cars are becoming more fuel efficient//
"By this measure, vehicle miles driven are off 3.6% Year-over-year (YoY); the decline in miles driven is worse than during the early '70s and 1979-1980 oil crisis."
Woo! Hoo! Looks like we got us a convoy!
Maybe they can come up with an internet ready textable version of the CB radio, so we can old-school it, 21st century style.
".......and I'm betting there's going to be an explosion of indoor marijuana cultivation in this country..."
....And to think I wasted 30-years just staying stoned when I could have been growing it too in a couple bedrooms! Nothing like a major increase in paranoia - great way to detox though - in a jail cell going thru our well-oiled, highly refined justice system.
BSR, you'd be surprised how many people grow in California. I was also surprised to find out that my best friend's grandmother grows something like 50 plants for her (and her three goats) own personal use.
The license for my plastic kayak (no motor) leads me to suspect them deeply.
Just another one of our tools in on war on Kayak terrorists. And think of the side benefits in being able to identify a hit-and-run kayaker. There aren't any? Well,... there you go,...see how well it works?
When you make a reservation, call the hotel directly. Ask for a rate quote, and if it's higher than the above rates, ask for the state rate. Nine out of 10 you'll get it without question. If they ask for ID when you check in, any non-drivers license type photo ID (school, work, home made) will satisfy.
creditcriminalslovetarp (member) wrote on Wed, 4/22/2009 - 11:43 am the market is amazing...earnings are no longer part of market equation.
Why should they be? They aren't! This is all on Uncle Sam's credit card, and since failure to borrow will fail the market -- the risk transfer runs both ways -- the market pricing mechanism will ignore it just like any other context-destroying event. Things will run like a well-oiled sewing machine humming away on the Titanic.
It's just a giga-SIV now. Borrow super-short in the Treasuries market, "lend" long into the economy, die in an afternoon when there's a liquidity hitch. Everything else is just a puppet show.
I actually enjoyed the Denninger piece, He puts it blatant and in your face, pay the debt down or default on it.
And obviously we are in no position to pay it down as no one wants our script...so F*** it default on it...and then we all default...big friggin deal its not like the world will come to an end...and if it does oh well it was a fun ride....We need a global reboot, oh and we need to keep Guantanamo open there is quite a few people that need to take up residence there.
Stand up Obama and be the president the people elected you to be...be your own man..and take on this corrupt establishment and call it for what it was ans is, blatant thievery and treason....this is your time to shine, how about taking the peoples side.
BSR, you'd be surprised how many people grow in California.
Bet he wouldn't be.
Think it will be legalized before we manage to do a GMO on it? You know if you transplant the gene into a different weed,...say, mallow,...it would be impossible to police outdoor growing.
Chronic pain, chronic nausea, AIDS, cancer, glaucoma, hepatitis, chronic muscle spasms and other spastic disorders, such as multiple sclerosis, seizure disorders, such as epilepsy, gastrointestinal disorders, such as IBS, Crohn's disease and the inability to eat, or patients who have medical treatments for other conditions that cause one of these conditions."
"you'd be surprised how many people grow in California."
No, I wouldn't. With the family owning two bars in town here - I've been shown prole 20-30 Med MJ cards and home-gardens - it seems most of the drunks also smoke.
It's not failure to borrow. It's failure to continue to lend to people who should not be borrowing. The economy was, for too long, based on spending tomorrow's earnings whilst true productivity and wages were declining. It was kiting, plain and simple. So long as the music's playing, it works. The music's no longer playing, and we now have to eat this recipe for disaster we've been cooking up for so many years.
Most people can't kick their Meth habit. There will be much pain ahead.
drove up to New Jersey last weekend. Not much traffic - now I know! Pulled into the "rest stop" - at my age, I rest at practically every rest stop. And for the first time in my life, and I've been driving up there for 20 years (DC to Philly), there were NO cars in the parking lot. I thought it was closed for maintenance.
“The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…”
—Winston Churchill, November 1936
Yea I posted that right before I went back and read earlier posts... It was there a hundred times.. I was embarrassed... I thought about deleting it but didnt know what was the acceptable thing to do...
"Yea I posted that right before I went back and read earlier posts... It was there a hundred times.. I was embarrassed... I thought about deleting it but didnt know what was the acceptable thing to do... "
............
Well, not seeing a thread on it, and not being nocturnal, unemployed, or in a position of being able to read CR comments for a living, I didn't take the time to read earlier posts. My bad.
Guess I'll look elsewhere for fresh discussion that doesn't require forensic archaeology to uncover....
In the meantime, the grow-op comments here are good filler....
80 years (if your lucky) on this tiny planet and you want to spend valuable time sucking the end of a noxious oily thistle?
Why not jump off the roof headfirst for a pleasant time-out?
Dope is just another easing of troubled consciences, and for momentary cowardice when turmoil that should be manfully faced is skulked. And doing this sneakily, ducking the fuzz, deliberating breaking law just dilutes honor of the law. And takes men into that murky gray shadowland in life.
Better to spend time gaining knowledge, refining skills, enlarging freedom and hope for future.
But suck a hookah of hemp if the world is too much for you.
most of what we consider culture and tradition in merica is just an excuse to drink. every sports event, death, birth, graduation, wedding, divorce, layoff, promotion, new acquaintance, new year's, halloween, st patrick's, christmas, thanksgiving, fourth of july, memorial day, labor day, easter vacation (spring break), camping trip, fishing excursion, 18th hole, your birthday, shark week, a bad day, a good day... ALL these are alcohol binge days in our culture.
walk the streets of any downtown on a nice sunny day and you will see people drinking everywhere.
What was it the man said - oh yes - "Events, dear boy, events..."
Taliban Seize District Near Islamabad
ISLAMABAD -- Pakistan's Taliban have seized control of another district in the country's northwest just 70 miles from the capital after consolidating their hold on the Swat valley following a peace deal with the government, according to local government officials and residents.
The latest Taliban advance into the Buner district has spurred fears that the controversial accord, which allowed the militants to enforce Sharia law in Swat, has emboldened them to expand their influence.
Militants have been moving into Buner since the Swat peace deal was signed in February. But starting Tuesday night they seized control of the entire district, which has a population of more than one million people, local government officials and residents said. Heavily-armed militants, streaming in from Swat, occupied government offices and set up their own checkposts. Terrified residents fled their homes.
Dozens of hooded fighters carrying rocket launchers and machine guns ransacked the offices of international aid and development agencies working in the district and took away their vehicles. Some employees of the agencies were also briefly taken hostage. The militants set up their headquarters in Buner town after driving out government officials.
The Taliban have banned music and television and stopped women from entering into a popular shrine of a Muslim saint. They are also using mosques to invite local youth to join them.
"80 years (if your lucky) on this tiny planet and you want to spend valuable time sucking the end of a..."...law writers- -censored--because IT has the oh so productive skill of winning rigged popularity contests every few years and, using that infinite wisdom magically imbued into the winners of such contests, has decided what's best for you?
I'd prefer that most of the boomers gas themselves to death in quicker ways.
My personal vehicle miles are up from January due to having a job now, and it not being in the city. If I had a job in the city, my miles would go down by a few hundred per week. Gas is still under two bucks here, has been for a while. I don't know if they're still talking about a gas tax increase or not (I would support it).
Geopolitical Diary: Taliban Problem Going Critical in Pakistan
April 22, 2009 | 0329 GMT
Geopolitical Diary icon
A spokesman for Pakistan’s military said Tuesday that the peace agreement between the government and Islamist militants in the Swat region has given the Taliban an opportunity to regroup, after having been flushed out by army operations some months back. Elsewhere, the information ministers of both the federal government and North-West Frontier Province warned the Taliban group in Swat, the Tehrik-i-Nifaz-i-Shariat-Muhammadi (TNSM), to uphold its end of the peace deal and disarm, or face government action.
These comments followed statements made during the weekend by TNSM leader Maulana Sufi Muhammad: He denounced Pakistan’s constitution, parliament and Supreme Court as un-Islamic and called for Sharia to be imposed throughout the country. In a related development, the rebellious imam of Islamabad’s Red Mosque, Maulana Abdul Aziz — who led a bloody rising in July 2007 — was released on bail. He told followers to be ready to make sacrifices to ensure that Islam is enforced through the entire country.
As expected, the Swat “Sharia for peace” deal appears to be falling apart — within a week of being ratified. The collapse is yet another manifestation of a weakened Pakistani state being manipulated by Taliban rebels. But a far important point is that the current situation is untenable.
Pakistani government leaders cannot remain on the path of negotiations while the Taliban are going for the jugular. The entire rationale behind the peace agreement was that the insurgency in Swat could be ended if Sharia was enforced in the restive area. The Taliban not only have shown that they are unwilling to disarm, but their ambitions are escalating from a local to a national level.
This leaves the government with two choices: Either continue down the current path — allowing the jihadists to advance their cause while trying to avoid confrontation — or draw the line. In either case, conflict would be inevitable.
The difference is one of time and location. The Pakistanis either can fight the jihadists now, seeking to limit the conflict to the Pashtun regions of the northwest, or wait to fight — while the jihadists move to strengthen their ability to strike in Punjab province, the heart of Pakistan. The state is being pushed toward taking action by both the deteriorating security situation at home and mounting pressure from the United States. But it is not clear whether there is sufficient political will in Islamabad to go on the offensive.
Much of this is because the state is caught between the contradictory needs to combat the “bad” Taliban (those that fight in Pakistan) while still maintaining influence over the “good” ones (those that fight in Afghanistan). This distinction itself is a problem: The jihadist landscape is far more complicated than such neat binary categorizations would seem to allow. The problems Islamabad faces in this regard offer a glimpse of what the Obama administration can expect in its efforts to distinguish between what Washington sees as Taliban it can deal with versus Taliban it cannot deal with.
Overall, Pakistan’s situation is far more dire than the situation the United States will face in Afghanistan as it increases troop commitments and seeks out pragmatic Taliban with whom to negotiate. For Islamabad, the war is hitting home now more than ever.
Oh My God. The Taliban is closing in on Islamagood. We're all doomed. This is it. Remember Biden said O man would be tested and have to do something really unpopular and we would have to support him even though we didn't like it. Expect a draft. Conscription for the recently unemployed. An army of fast food junkies with hight tech weapons. Let's go raid some wedding parties and blow some children's heads off.
It's like the scene out of the Planet Of The Apes where the apes find the bomb and start climbing all over it.
Thats how we were after the first round. People walked around on eggshells for about a month. A month and a half later everyone was back to their lazy selves. A good indication of the human memory span if you ask me
Would a normalized version of these statistics be valuable, by number of licensed drivers or number of vehicles, similar to the way CR speaks about the unemployment statistics?
"ROTFLOL! I love the rummaging thru others desks. Next friday there will be people rummaging thru mine.
What should I leave for presents? "
Good idea!
We're still on layoff watch at the univ I work for. Looks to be catastrophic cuts coming, but no pink slips yet.
Time to plan what to leave for the (un)lucky survivors, should I be on the hit list...
We could probably look at Afghanistan's current state to see how things will look drugwise in this country in the future. Increased production due to economic difficulty and increased consumption because of availability.
It won't be long until soccer moms are selling their youngest female children outside the wal-mart.
.... ducking the fuzz, deliberating breaking law just dilutes honor of the law. And takes men into that murky gray shadowland in life.
Yeah, it takes men into that murky gray shadowland that leads to things like the Declaration of Independence. How dare those skulking, low-lifes go against the King's Good Law! And why do women and colored people have a vote, or count more than 1/5 of a person!?!? Too much shirking of the infallible law, indeed. Outrageous!
Driving has become such an awful experience. I'd like to see a lot more local village neighborhoods especially within cities. I like to walk=exercise, free, sun.
And then there's the DUI risk if you are out boozing. Wish I could walk everywhere...
But February is a short month, so nothing to worry about.
Nemo bot lives.
OT--but very interesting--- study of San Diego housing market shows likely next wave down in housing prices there due to surging NOD's.
Foreclosure Pipeline Supply About to Overwhelm Market
New Notice-of-Default (NOD) filings in San Diego County are surging. Nearly 4000 new defaults hit in March alone while total sales were roughly 3000. NOD is Stage 1 of the foreclosure process that happens after a borrower misses 3-4 payments. From here the banks/servicers will try to modify the mortgages and those that are not modified will go to stage 2 — Notice-of-Trustee Sale (NTS) within 4-5 months. Due to epidemic negative equity, weak sales and few financing options for many, the amount of NOD’s that will make it all the way to foreclosure is very high.
Field Check Group: Real Estate & Finance
If the reason is not gas being expensive this time, we should look at people saving their cars and extending their life expectancy!
Plus many other reasons...
More stress,more drinking,more DUI's,more bicycle riders....
Inflationary Prospectus
To view our impartial assessment, please visit:
The Value at Risk
Please let the numbers stay low through August so the Rink family's drive to the shore can be as quick and painless as last August's was.
No job, no reason to drive...simple really.
buy an ad!
Gas glut coming? Crude inventories increased 3.7 million barrels to 370.6 million barrels, the highest level in nearly 19 years
Don't forget all those arbitrage tankers parked off shore.
It was a late Mardi Gras this year.
Rob Dawg (member) wrote on Wed, 4/22/2009 - 10:56 am
Gas glut coming?
This is an interesting aspect of the decline of animal labor.
After the great epizootic, there must have been a sectoral boom in horse breeding. This crash -- initiated by the gas crisis -- brings sectoral destruction to the auto industry. Both were probably hard on feed providers.
Interesting trend in capital development over time, don't think I have anything else to say about it. Just something to notice.
Having the price of gas at or below $2 a gallon during a huge government revenue shortage can only lead to higher gas taxes with the canard of saving the environment.
Keep in mind that the commodity bubble created by the Federal Reserve likely caused huge downside distortions in these numbers.
ac, would you draw me a picture?
I don't manage somehow to connect commodity bubble (at least gasoline, long since debubbled) impacting vehicle miles driven.
That is, I'm sure you know what you're saying, but I don't understand.
ac, would you draw me a picture?
I don't manage somehow to connect commodity bubble (at least gasoline, long since debubbled) impacting vehicle miles driven.
I'm saying there was downside distortion to miles driven last year when oil was near $150 that might actually making coming YoY comparisons more favorable than they really are (as they pertain to the economy).
Devastating profile of Tweak in today's Portfolio mag:
Geithner fixed Whalen with a vacant gaze and simply moved to another questioner, mumbling that he wasn’t prepared to answer the question.
Whalen was stunned. “It seemed to me that he had no idea what I was talking about,” he recalls. As for the look: “Think Bambi looking into the headlights on an 18-wheeler.”
Got it. Thanks.
I suggest looking at VMT per capita first. It is very revealing, both of the driving trends and real dates. The behavior tracks beautifully against gasoline pricing, which explains almost all the variations. Economic factors other than gasoline pricing do not show up as a statistically significant predictor. That remains true even for current driving.
In terms of VMT per capita, the 1973 crisis occurred with a far lower travel rate. There was less room for decline before hitting critical uses. The other thing that is apparent is that per capita, the decline began in 2005-2006. You can make an approximate statement that per capita use drops when gasoline prices are above $2.00 (constant 2005 dollars) and increases when prices are below $1.75.
A lot of these effects are obscured if you only look at year to year variation.
Gasoline is long since debubbled? (Is that even a word?) It was last July that we saw prices over $5 per gallon. I agree that the bubble popped, but I disagree that it was long ago. Besides, just wait for hurricane season...
popeye, thanks for the link on ETFs.
UltraShort ETF Losses Go to 'Money Heaven' - Yahoo! Finance
proves what i've been seeing on the charts. the author's conclusion is:
"I have no doubt that the existence of these funds exacerbated the selling pressure in the market "
i contend they do the opposite. they take selling pressure off stocks by sending negative sentiment funds to "money heaven". silly yahoo.
have you noticed the forex action. correlations to the stock market are faltering. this AM currencies rallied while futures plumetted. here is an article on the subject:
DailyFX - Euro/US Dollar Loses Correlation to S&P 500 - Time for Turn Lower
They could also be driving less because they are shopping less, or making one stop at Walmart.
The other big users of vehicle miles are business travel and vacation. If a company cuts back on meetings, that can do a lot.
OT, but I've been doing a little research, and I'm betting there's going to be an explosion of indoor marijuana cultivation in this country, what with all the cheap CRE and foreclosures knocking around and people looking for something cheap and calming to occupy themselves with...
bloomberg - "M/I Homes Inc. led gains in all 13 companies in a gauge of homebuilders as the Federal Housing Finance Agency said home prices advanced 0.7 percent in February from the previous month."
I though other RE indexes indicated Home Prices fell..., well if THE party says we must pass the stress test, FHFA (& us) must follow. We must do whatever it takes, go home loan rate of 2% go !!!
Ha! I knew my driving was off 0.9%. And to think my wife thought I was nuts.
Did anyone see this?
WSJ Error Page - WSJ.com
The U.S. Treasury Department and the regulator for Freddie Mac (FRE) expressed grief over the death of acting Freddie Mac Chief Financial Officer David Kellermann, who was found dead Wednesday morning at his northern Virginia home.
......
Well Hoopajoops, that maybe true but it sure hasn't brought the price down any..
Well, the spot price of oil, a poor indicator, is at 48 dollars a barrel currently. Anyone taking bets on how many megaprojects in the ocean depths and the frozen tundra are currently being funded to keep up with the fact that oil fields mature?
'Maturing' having much the same gentle meaning as passed away, though in this case, the strippers are generally the only things left after the maturing is over.
Hoops,we have 12 (12!) hydroponics outlets in my town of less than 9,000 people (8,000 souls,lots of realtors) and some of them are big.I heard some months ago at gossip central that a lot of folks who bought too much house were turning the 5th and 6th bedrooms into grow rooms to meet their expenses...
"The other big users of vehicle miles are business travel and vacation. If a company cuts back on meetings, that can do a lot. "
A factoid that drifted in from the electronic media into my head: air travel and hotel occupancy are both down. Both business travel and tourism.
It's all of a piece. If you live in Livermore and lose your job in the SiliValley, 50 miles away, that's 500 fewer miles you drive in a week.
Just wondering what these omens might mean for energy sector funds such as xle, etc. over the long haul of 5 to 10 years.
Comments, please?
lifeguard, prices have been below $70/bbl for some time now. I wasn't referring to the Pleistocene.
ac, yes YoY will almost certainly be given the David Lereah treatment in a few months, I agree.
" Tom Stone (member) wrote on Wed, 4/22/2009 - 8:28 am
Hoops,we have 12 (12!) hydroponics outlets in my town of less than 9,000 people (8,000 souls,lots of realtors) and some of them are big.I heard some months ago at gossip central that a lot of folks who bought too much house were turning the 5th and 6th bedrooms into grow rooms to meet their expenses...
Tom Stone"
12? You guys are even bigger stoners than us down in Santa Cruz; we only have two.
We've always had grow houses down here, even at the height of the bubble. All you need is a big empty house, preferably isolated but not necessarily. The only difference now is that there are more empty houses, and more desperate homeowners. Who will face the usual hazards:
1) PG&E narking out to law enforcement about suspicious spikes in power usage in residential neighborhoods.
2) The distributors they sell to informing on them to the cops
The pros know about these things, and still get caught.
The economy's in such a mess.
The people are driving much less.
Gas prices are down,
Surplusses abound,
But for how long is anyone's guess.
Bob Dobbs (member) wrote on Wed, 4/22/2009 - 8:29 am reply
"The other big users of vehicle miles are business travel and vacation. If a company cuts back on meetings, that can do a lot. "
A factoid that drifted in from the electronic media into my head: air travel and hotel occupancy are both down. Both business travel and tourism.
Santa Barbara hotel tax revenues -24%yoy last month. Room performance on Hawaii near decade lows (excepting 9/11).
"Having the price of gas at or below $2 a gallon during a huge government revenue shortage can only lead to higher gas taxes with the canard of saving the environment."
Some states are looking at a tax based on miles driven (because cars are becoming more fuel efficient).
the market is amazing...earnings are no longer part of market equation..
Saving money in the long run, who wants a return of the Hummer (no, not that one)?
//Having the price of gas at or below $2 a gallon during a huge government revenue shortage can only lead to higher gas taxes with the canard of saving the environment.//
Santa Barbara hotel tax revenues -24%yoy last month. Room performance on Hawaii near decade lows (excepting 9/11).
And yet, they're still asking $300/night for May/June.
We wouldn't want to discriminate against conspicuous consumption behavior. I'll bet my state of IL is one of them. The license for my plastic kayak (no motor) leads me to suspect them deeply.
//Some states are looking at a tax based on miles driven (because cars are becoming more fuel efficient//
Yes, they reported the Freddie CEO hung himself.
And yet, they're [SB hotels] still asking $300/night for May/June.
Asking, yes. Santa Barbara is a discretionary luxury. There are even a few shuttered storefronts in the Paseo.
This kind of statistic DRIVES me crazy
"By this measure, vehicle miles driven are off 3.6% Year-over-year (YoY); the decline in miles driven is worse than during the early '70s and 1979-1980 oil crisis."
Woo! Hoo! Looks like we got us a convoy!
Maybe they can come up with an internet ready textable version of the CB radio, so we can old-school it, 21st century style.
".......and I'm betting there's going to be an explosion of indoor marijuana cultivation in this country..."
....And to think I wasted 30-years just staying stoned when I could have been growing it too in a couple bedrooms! Nothing like a major increase in paranoia - great way to detox though - in a jail cell going thru our well-oiled, highly refined justice system.
Just a test with the new reply system
((No value added at all, but at least I'm upfront about it!))
BSR, you'd be surprised how many people grow in California. I was also surprised to find out that my best friend's grandmother grows something like 50 plants for her (and her three goats) own personal use.
The license for my plastic kayak (no motor) leads me to suspect them deeply.
Just another one of our tools in on war on Kayak terrorists. And think of the side benefits in being able to identify a hit-and-run kayaker. There aren't any? Well,... there you go,...see how well it works?
But isn't meth more profitable than marijuana?
Asking, yes. Santa Barbara is a discretionary luxury. There are even a few shuttered storefronts in the Paseo.
FYI, for those of you traveling to California this year, most hotels offer a state government rate:
DPA - Short-Term Travel Reimbursement for All Excluded and Represented Employees - Main Page
When you make a reservation, call the hotel directly. Ask for a rate quote, and if it's higher than the above rates, ask for the state rate. Nine out of 10 you'll get it without question. If they ask for ID when you check in, any non-drivers license type photo ID (school, work, home made) will satisfy.
creditcriminalslovetarp (member) wrote on Wed, 4/22/2009 - 11:43 am
the market is amazing...earnings are no longer part of market equation.
Why should they be? They aren't! This is all on Uncle Sam's credit card, and since failure to borrow will fail the market -- the risk transfer runs both ways -- the market pricing mechanism will ignore it just like any other context-destroying event. Things will run like a well-oiled sewing machine humming away on the Titanic.
It's just a giga-SIV now. Borrow super-short in the Treasuries market, "lend" long into the economy, die in an afternoon when there's a liquidity hitch. Everything else is just a puppet show.
'the market is amazing...earnings are no longer part of market equation.."
Two days in a row Kermit has bitch slapped Elmo back into submission before Elmo could even finish making his coffee.
Thats okay, because COF is green.
I actually enjoyed the Denninger piece, He puts it blatant and in your face, pay the debt down or default on it.
And obviously we are in no position to pay it down as no one wants our script...so F*** it default on it...and then we all default...big friggin deal its not like the world will come to an end...and if it does oh well it was a fun ride....We need a global reboot, oh and we need to keep Guantanamo open there is quite a few people that need to take up residence there.
Stand up Obama and be the president the people elected you to be...be your own man..and take on this corrupt establishment and call it for what it was ans is, blatant thievery and treason....this is your time to shine, how about taking the peoples side.
"Two days in a row Kermit has bitch slapped Elmo back into submission before Elmo could even finish making his coffee."
I've always suspected that Elmo kinda likes it.
BSR, you'd be surprised how many people grow in California.
Bet he wouldn't be.
Think it will be legalized before we manage to do a GMO on it? You know if you transplant the gene into a different weed,...say, mallow,...it would be impossible to police outdoor growing.
The Oregon Medical Marijuana Act
The Oregon Medical Marijuana Act
FAQ | The Hemp and Cannabis Foundation, THCF Medical Clinics, THC Foundation, Medical Marijuana FAQ, Vaporizers,CBD, Medical Marijuana Permit, We have helped over 100,000 patients obtain a permit to legally possess, use and grow medical marijuana. Medical
"What conditions qualify for medical marijuana?
Chronic pain, chronic nausea, AIDS, cancer, glaucoma, hepatitis, chronic muscle spasms and other spastic disorders, such as multiple sclerosis, seizure disorders, such as epilepsy, gastrointestinal disorders, such as IBS, Crohn's disease and the inability to eat, or patients who have medical treatments for other conditions that cause one of these conditions."
Medical Marijuana Clinic - Oregon Medical Marijuana Program
Inside America's Pot Industry
Hulu - CNBC Originals: Marijuana Inc. - Watch the full episode now.
Sorry, CFO not CEO of Freddie. Probably worse news for the industry.
Do we really need more drug use in this country?
"you'd be surprised how many people grow in California."
No, I wouldn't. With the family owning two bars in town here - I've been shown prole 20-30 Med MJ cards and home-gardens - it seems most of the drunks also smoke.
you never see this kind of stuff with high people.
"The ladettes who glorify their shameful drunken antics on Facebook"
The ladettes who glorify their shameful drunken antics on Facebook | Mail Online
"Thats okay, because COF is green."
My investment approach has changed. I now buy stocks that have a whisper number well below estimates.
otis that hulu video makes me drool...
Do we really need more drug use in this country?
If it reduces the recent epidemic of mainlining kool-aid then I say "yes!"
It's not failure to borrow. It's failure to continue to lend to people who should not be borrowing. The economy was, for too long, based on spending tomorrow's earnings whilst true productivity and wages were declining. It was kiting, plain and simple. So long as the music's playing, it works. The music's no longer playing, and we now have to eat this recipe for disaster we've been cooking up for so many years.
Most people can't kick their Meth habit. There will be much pain ahead.
42,
"Do we really need more drug use in this country?"
With the baby boomers going geriatric? I think that's simply a forgone conclusion.
DRUNK PEOPLE COMPILATION VIDEO
YouTube - THE ULTIMATE DRUNK PEOPLE COMPILATION VIDEO EVER!!!
alcohol is way worse for society and individuals.
I'm hoping to see some more commentary about the Kellerman incident myself....
Anyone?
Vince Foster is rolling over - Brown too
And I hope to see not one more word about Kellerman unless there's a Kellerman thread.
burnside,
"And I hope to see not one more word about Kellerman unless there's a Kellerman thread."
Wouldn't that by definition be a dead thread then?
drove up to New Jersey last weekend. Not much traffic - now I know! Pulled into the "rest stop" - at my age, I rest at practically every rest stop. And for the first time in my life, and I've been driving up there for 20 years (DC to Philly), there were NO cars in the parking lot. I thought it was closed for maintenance.
If it's true that Alt-A, Option ARM, and even prime are exceeding even most dire default and delinquency estimates this early,
And, if it's true that only FHA, FNM, FRE are underwriting mortgages,
And, if it's true that Treasury/Fed are buying significant blocks of mortgage derivatives and long Treasuries,
And, if it's true that Kellermann's sad but honorable demise is correlated,
Then we are on the cusp of a true break and discontinuity.
Don't need bird entrails, tea leaves, or a bone bag.
Markets and players are scattering evidence everywhere.
“The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…”
—Winston Churchill, November 1936
Wouldn't that by definition be a dead thread then?
Nostrovia,
A glimpse of the old Misean humor?
Yea I posted that right before I went back and read earlier posts... It was there a hundred times.. I was embarrassed... I thought about deleting it but didnt know what was the acceptable thing to do...
the dancing one is funny.
YouTube - When Drunk People Dance!
YouTube - When Drunk People Dance!
YouTube - DRUNK PEOPLE THE BEST!!!!
YouTube - DRUNK PEOPLE THE BEST!!!!
"Yea I posted that right before I went back and read earlier posts... It was there a hundred times.. I was embarrassed... I thought about deleting it but didnt know what was the acceptable thing to do... "
............
Well, not seeing a thread on it, and not being nocturnal, unemployed, or in a position of being able to read CR comments for a living, I didn't take the time to read earlier posts. My bad.
Guess I'll look elsewhere for fresh discussion that doesn't require forensic archaeology to uncover....
In the meantime, the grow-op comments here are good filler....
OT, more taxpayer rip offs-- federally stimulated weatherization
Last year- 63 homes @ $3,609
This year at est peak performance 600 homes @ $6,166
BTW, a whole 18 extra jobs for $3.7 mil
San Marcos Record, San Marcos, TX - Weatherization funds go through the roof
oh yeh, highway miles driven:
ummmmm, less drunk driving deaths!
Hooorrayyy, otis pulls it together in the end.
back on topic.
80 years (if your lucky) on this tiny planet and you want to spend valuable time sucking the end of a noxious oily thistle?
Why not jump off the roof headfirst for a pleasant time-out?
Dope is just another easing of troubled consciences, and for momentary cowardice when turmoil that should be manfully faced is skulked. And doing this sneakily, ducking the fuzz, deliberating breaking law just dilutes honor of the law. And takes men into that murky gray shadowland in life.
Better to spend time gaining knowledge, refining skills, enlarging freedom and hope for future.
But suck a hookah of hemp if the world is too much for you.
I feel a sell-off in equities coming soon....
"But suck a hookah of hemp if the world is too much for you. "
or slowly, progressively drink yourself to death and take down all those around you while forgetting your problems.
Joanna - I posted it myself above. I didnt know how to interpret your comment.
However I am enamored with this "reply" function. This thing is silky smooth... Great work Ken!
Go out and drive, or the terrists will win.
most of what we consider culture and tradition in merica is just an excuse to drink. every sports event, death, birth, graduation, wedding, divorce, layoff, promotion, new acquaintance, new year's, halloween, st patrick's, christmas, thanksgiving, fourth of july, memorial day, labor day, easter vacation (spring break), camping trip, fishing excursion, 18th hole, your birthday, shark week, a bad day, a good day... ALL these are alcohol binge days in our culture.
walk the streets of any downtown on a nice sunny day and you will see people drinking everywhere.
j,
from my experience, not everyone who smokes is an escapist...
I'm not sure if you can fit that into the rigid mold you've setup.
IMHO, the real drug of choice for the masses is television.
Sorry, nades. Some other person was snarking about it upthread after I asked about it.
With so many people on CR 24/7 it can be tough to keep up with new news that isn't on it's own thread...
What was it the man said - oh yes - "Events, dear boy, events..."
Taliban Seize District Near Islamabad
ISLAMABAD -- Pakistan's Taliban have seized control of another district in the country's northwest just 70 miles from the capital after consolidating their hold on the Swat valley following a peace deal with the government, according to local government officials and residents.
The latest Taliban advance into the Buner district has spurred fears that the controversial accord, which allowed the militants to enforce Sharia law in Swat, has emboldened them to expand their influence.
Militants have been moving into Buner since the Swat peace deal was signed in February. But starting Tuesday night they seized control of the entire district, which has a population of more than one million people, local government officials and residents said. Heavily-armed militants, streaming in from Swat, occupied government offices and set up their own checkposts. Terrified residents fled their homes.
Dozens of hooded fighters carrying rocket launchers and machine guns ransacked the offices of international aid and development agencies working in the district and took away their vehicles. Some employees of the agencies were also briefly taken hostage. The militants set up their headquarters in Buner town after driving out government officials.
The Taliban have banned music and television and stopped women from entering into a popular shrine of a Muslim saint. They are also using mosques to invite local youth to join them.
Taliban Move Closer to Islamabad - WSJ.com
"80 years (if your lucky) on this tiny planet and you want to spend valuable time sucking the end of a..."...law writers- -censored--because IT has the oh so productive skill of winning rigged popularity contests every few years and, using that infinite wisdom magically imbued into the winners of such contests, has decided what's best for you?
I wonder if Oregon weed is 'farm and forestry' land use?
I hope Mr. Frank has an air tight alibi.
I'd prefer that most of the boomers gas themselves to death in quicker ways.
My personal vehicle miles are up from January due to having a job now, and it not being in the city. If I had a job in the city, my miles would go down by a few hundred per week. Gas is still under two bucks here, has been for a while. I don't know if they're still talking about a gas tax increase or not (I would support it).
I want a new drug.
prepare for elmo
Gas tax increase would probably be good in the long run, however the issue is so politically incorrect.
Currently looting the desks of the people we laid off this week.
Got about 20 bottles of distilled water and a Nerf gun.
Capitalism sure is great!
Latest Stratfor RE Pakistan:
Geopolitical Diary: Taliban Problem Going Critical in Pakistan
April 22, 2009 | 0329 GMT
Geopolitical Diary icon
A spokesman for Pakistan’s military said Tuesday that the peace agreement between the government and Islamist militants in the Swat region has given the Taliban an opportunity to regroup, after having been flushed out by army operations some months back. Elsewhere, the information ministers of both the federal government and North-West Frontier Province warned the Taliban group in Swat, the Tehrik-i-Nifaz-i-Shariat-Muhammadi (TNSM), to uphold its end of the peace deal and disarm, or face government action.
These comments followed statements made during the weekend by TNSM leader Maulana Sufi Muhammad: He denounced Pakistan’s constitution, parliament and Supreme Court as un-Islamic and called for Sharia to be imposed throughout the country. In a related development, the rebellious imam of Islamabad’s Red Mosque, Maulana Abdul Aziz — who led a bloody rising in July 2007 — was released on bail. He told followers to be ready to make sacrifices to ensure that Islam is enforced through the entire country.
As expected, the Swat “Sharia for peace” deal appears to be falling apart — within a week of being ratified. The collapse is yet another manifestation of a weakened Pakistani state being manipulated by Taliban rebels. But a far important point is that the current situation is untenable.
Pakistani government leaders cannot remain on the path of negotiations while the Taliban are going for the jugular. The entire rationale behind the peace agreement was that the insurgency in Swat could be ended if Sharia was enforced in the restive area. The Taliban not only have shown that they are unwilling to disarm, but their ambitions are escalating from a local to a national level.
This leaves the government with two choices: Either continue down the current path — allowing the jihadists to advance their cause while trying to avoid confrontation — or draw the line. In either case, conflict would be inevitable.
The difference is one of time and location. The Pakistanis either can fight the jihadists now, seeking to limit the conflict to the Pashtun regions of the northwest, or wait to fight — while the jihadists move to strengthen their ability to strike in Punjab province, the heart of Pakistan. The state is being pushed toward taking action by both the deteriorating security situation at home and mounting pressure from the United States. But it is not clear whether there is sufficient political will in Islamabad to go on the offensive.
Much of this is because the state is caught between the contradictory needs to combat the “bad” Taliban (those that fight in Pakistan) while still maintaining influence over the “good” ones (those that fight in Afghanistan). This distinction itself is a problem: The jihadist landscape is far more complicated than such neat binary categorizations would seem to allow. The problems Islamabad faces in this regard offer a glimpse of what the Obama administration can expect in its efforts to distinguish between what Washington sees as Taliban it can deal with versus Taliban it cannot deal with.
Overall, Pakistan’s situation is far more dire than the situation the United States will face in Afghanistan as it increases troop commitments and seeks out pragmatic Taliban with whom to negotiate. For Islamabad, the war is hitting home now more than ever.
Here it's gas tax or most likely another 50-100% increases in tolls and transit fares.
You want to harm the economy, that's a great way to do it. Better to have the gas tax, at least it hits fewer of the urban working poor.
GM won't make $1 bln debt payment due June 1
Elmo's hiding behind an imaginary inflationary shroud.
Come out Elmo. We're waiting.
Oh My God. The Taliban is closing in on Islamagood. We're all doomed. This is it. Remember Biden said O man would be tested and have to do something really unpopular and we would have to support him even though we didn't like it. Expect a draft. Conscription for the recently unemployed. An army of fast food junkies with hight tech weapons. Let's go raid some wedding parties and blow some children's heads off.
It's like the scene out of the Planet Of The Apes where the apes find the bomb and start climbing all over it.
Damn You All To Hell.
No link as of yet...sorry
Tell me about it... I get excited to post a story I find and then hours later I realized it was almost a day old!
42,
"Do we really need more drug use in this country?"
With the baby boomers going geriatric? I think that's simply a forgone conclusion.
Nostrovia,
Especially considering they're going to be working until they're 80.
Lots of vitamins and uppers that'll be.
Dow less than 8K. Red alert. Red alert. Time to roll out Geithner to say that the vast, vast, vast majority of banks have all the capital they need.
But suck a hookah of hemp if the world is too much for you.
I prefer a nap.
I also don't like to drive as much anymore.
I am getting old.
A lot of that going around.
"Currently looting the desks of the people we laid off this week.
Got about 20 bottles of distilled water and a Nerf gun.
Capitalism sure is great!
ROTFLOL! I love the rummaging thru others desks. Next friday there will be people rummaging thru mine.
What should I leave for presents?
Isn't hemp by definition the male plant? I'd prefer not to suck a hookah full of that...I like girls
ROTFLOL! I love the rummaging thru others desks. Next friday there will be people rummaging thru mine.
What should I leave for presents?
Haha... all us survivors feel like we're living on death row now. We're just waiting for the HR guy to show up and tap us on the shoulder.
" Time to roll out Geithner to say that the vast, vast, vast majority of banks have all the capital they need."
He should say the banks are as strong as GM.
ELMO! Welcome back ole buddy!
Thats how we were after the first round. People walked around on eggshells for about a month. A month and a half later everyone was back to their lazy selves. A good indication of the human memory span if you ask me
Would a normalized version of these statistics be valuable, by number of licensed drivers or number of vehicles, similar to the way CR speaks about the unemployment statistics?
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
CFO of freddie mac apparently commits suicide. maybe its nothing but then again maybe it has to do with something...
CFO of freddie mac apparently commits suicide. maybe its nothing but then again maybe it has to do with something...
He shot himself twice in the head.
"ROTFLOL! I love the rummaging thru others desks. Next friday there will be people rummaging thru mine.
What should I leave for presents? "
Good idea!
We're still on layoff watch at the univ I work for. Looks to be catastrophic cuts coming, but no pink slips yet.
Time to plan what to leave for the (un)lucky survivors, should I be on the hit list...
"Especially considering they're going to be working until they're 80"
I expect the U.S. will start showing a decrease in life expectancy just like the Soviet Union did.
"He shot himself twice in the head."
that first shot must have hurt like hell.
Then we are on the cusp of a true break and discontinuity.
Some of the financial wizards here use the term "dislocation" which seems too mild.
Your comment reminded me that clinically it seems more akin to a comminuted fracture, with no orthopod on the island.
"What should I leave for presents? "
....based on this morning's conversation, I'd suggest a joint lightly glued to the trip mechanism of a mouse trap.
We could probably look at Afghanistan's current state to see how things will look drugwise in this country in the future. Increased production due to economic difficulty and increased consumption because of availability.
It won't be long until soccer moms are selling their youngest female children outside the wal-mart.
Global economy is expected to shrink this year
global warming will do that.
"What should I leave for presents? "
A suicide note might be useful.
swamp otis,
" "He shot himself twice in the head."
that first shot must have hurt like hell."
Yeah, that's why he missed with the second shot. The rather large 16Ton weight found on top of him, however, is a bit of a poser.
new thread
Misean, your usage of the word "poser" is non-standard to me. What do you mean by that word?
Whoa! What happened to the rally? We suck again?!!
:Furiously waving the American flag behind the trader's desk:
joint on a mouse trap. i like it... have to find a mouse trap tho...
Will the next CFO of Freddie be brought in from GS? I say probably maybe.
Gas guzzlers were all the rage
And fuel was cheap at that stage,
But now they are seen
In a world turning Green
As relics of the dinosaur age.
D_M_B
1pos·er Listen to the pronunciation of 1poser
Pronunciation:
\ˈpō-zər\
Function:
noun
Etymology:
3pose
Date:
1793
a puzzling or baffling question
.... ducking the fuzz, deliberating breaking law just dilutes honor of the law. And takes men into that murky gray shadowland in life.
Yeah, it takes men into that murky gray shadowland that leads to things like the Declaration of Independence. How dare those skulking, low-lifes go against the King's Good Law! And why do women and colored people have a vote, or count more than 1/5 of a person!?!? Too much shirking of the infallible law, indeed. Outrageous!
Driving has become such an awful experience. I'd like to see a lot more local village neighborhoods especially within cities. I like to walk=exercise, free, sun.
And then there's the DUI risk if you are out boozing. Wish I could walk everywhere...