So much depends on the references/baselines for these figures and why CR's graphical treatment is head and shoulders above these comparisons.
From that plethora of percentages this one stood out for me: House prices rose 12.95 percent, while prices of other goods and services rose only 4.3 percent.
The official inflation is considerably lower than 4.3 percent and the OFHEO seems to be dismissing that modest one for it's own. No reference to the housing component of the CPI for this crew.
I appreciate the regional breakdown and the local market data as this picture winds down.
The Massachusetts Association of Realtors released the January numbers yesterday and MA single family home prices are officially negative year over year.
Inventory for SFH's are over 14 months. Here's a link to a good blog The Massachusetts Housing Market that has all the details...
It looks like the long steady decline like in the early 90's has begun... although the market reaction of investors holding condo's and folks with exotic mortgages are the wild cards.
From a bubble perspective, three of the most closely watched cities have been Boston, Sacramento and San Diego - all three have shown signs of a housing slowdown.
I have to say the slowdown is much more gentle than compared to 1989-1990. Especially for San Diego. May be we are headed for a soft landing after all.
Too early to say there is a soft landing- come back in 6-9 months we wil then have a better idea. Boston and San Diego cannot be compared in my opinion. The rubber meets the road if this huge and growing inventory does not level off my late spring. Here in Connecticut we had a 25-40 decline in 7 years- that is around 5% a year. To say there will be a soft landing- is very premature, to say the least. Our boom in Connecticut peaked in 1988-in 1989 prices stalled, and di not begin to fall nearly 1.5 years after the peak in prices.
The r.e. mkt is certainly different than that of the early 1990's. Back then people were potentially losing real equity and there was room to go down, cut your prices and move along.
Now there is basically no equity, and actually defecit equity, much more painful a scenario. So denial rules the day.
To change the mindset of the owners/investors/r.e.biz, will take a long drawn out painful scenario. Mostly time will wound these heels.
However, if ABC news goes ahead with their very negative piece on the housing market that will spark a downside rush and markdowns. Be sure to look for some 'ex-cathedra' spittle from agents/bkrs/industry to contradict the heartfelt pain that will be portrayed on this piece from actual people.
The prices will be set by those who 'have to get out' either because of job loss or greater fear of holding on longer, lacking liquidity. Prices are set on the 'margin'.
Look for auctioned off houses in any local area to indicate the true prices. I'd be very interested in finding out where this info would be available?
thanks
dan
"Look for auctioned off houses in any local area to indicate the true prices. I'd be very interested in finding out where this info would be available?"
Considering your obvious mastery of the real estate market, I'm surprised you don't know: Simply troll through McMansion 'hoods with a lowball Purchase Agreement wrapped around a Thia stick and watch the boomers grovel.
"Needless to say, this is a very different outcome to the doomsday scenarios that were floated not very long ago, which promised national economic ruin on the back of a collapse in house prices (scenarios that are still getting a run in the US context)."
So much depends on the references/baselines for these figures and why CR's graphical treatment is head and shoulders above these comparisons.
From that plethora of percentages this one stood out for me:
House prices rose 12.95 percent, while prices of other goods and services rose only 4.3 percent.
The official inflation is considerably lower than 4.3 percent and the OFHEO seems to be dismissing that modest one for it's own. No reference to the housing component of the CPI for this crew.
I appreciate the regional breakdown and the local market data as this picture winds down.
The Massachusetts Association of Realtors released the January numbers yesterday and MA single family home prices are officially negative year over year.
Inventory for SFH's are over 14 months. Here's a link to a good blog The Massachusetts Housing Market that has all the details...
It looks like the long steady decline like in the early 90's has begun... although the market reaction of investors holding condo's and folks with exotic mortgages are the wild cards.
Interesting report, and great graphs for gubment work.
From a bubble perspective, three of the most closely watched cities have been Boston, Sacramento and San Diego - all three have shown signs of a housing slowdown.
I have to say the slowdown is much more gentle than compared to 1989-1990. Especially for San Diego. May be we are headed for a soft landing after all.
Too early to say there is a soft landing- come back in 6-9 months we wil then have a better idea. Boston and San Diego cannot be compared in my opinion. The rubber meets the road if this huge and growing inventory does not level off my late spring. Here in Connecticut we had a 25-40 decline in 7 years- that is around 5% a year. To say there will be a soft landing- is very premature, to say the least. Our boom in Connecticut peaked in 1988-in 1989 prices stalled, and di not begin to fall nearly 1.5 years after the peak in prices.
The r.e. mkt is certainly different than that of the early 1990's. Back then people were potentially losing real equity and there was room to go down, cut your prices and move along.
Now there is basically no equity, and actually defecit equity, much more painful a scenario. So denial rules the day.
To change the mindset of the owners/investors/r.e.biz, will take a long drawn out painful scenario. Mostly time will wound these heels.
However, if ABC news goes ahead with their very negative piece on the housing market that will spark a downside rush and markdowns. Be sure to look for some 'ex-cathedra' spittle from agents/bkrs/industry to contradict the heartfelt pain that will be portrayed on this piece from actual people.
The prices will be set by those who 'have to get out' either because of job loss or greater fear of holding on longer, lacking liquidity. Prices are set on the 'margin'.
Look for auctioned off houses in any local area to indicate the true prices. I'd be very interested in finding out where this info would be available?
thanks
dan
"Look for auctioned off houses in any local area to indicate the true prices. I'd be very interested in finding out where this info would be available?"
Considering your obvious mastery of the real estate market, I'm surprised you don't know: Simply troll through McMansion 'hoods with a lowball Purchase Agreement wrapped around a Thia stick and watch the boomers grovel.
Prices have leveled off nicely in Australia, Institutional Economics: ‘Light Reading It’s Not’ - Forbes
From your link:
"Needless to say, this is a very different outcome to the doomsday scenarios that were floated not very long ago, which promised national economic ruin on the back of a collapse in house prices (scenarios that are still getting a run in the US context)."