Uh.....call me crazy....but 4% doesnt seem like that much. In this economy, I'da guessed a drop of at least 10%

Surely there will be a pump after the short sale rules are changed. Why change the rules if you can't really stick it to your opponents afterward?

Pulte buying Centex reminds me of BofA buying Merrill.

CR & Ken,

I really like the new comments

SEC to announce proposals for shorts today: Uptick Rule Showdown Coming Wednesday | Innovation Update | Financial Articles & Investing News | TheStreet.com

Intellectual discussions at 3:45 AM sounds pretty much like my college dorm. Add in fire alarm pranks, real fires, and people spraying pepper spray under your doors and it would pretty much be home.

NEWS! 60 day comment period and 3 month implementation period for any short sale rule proposals.

a bit O/T

Henry Paulson’s Son Finds Dad’s Money Won’t Buy Soccer Bliss - Bloomberg.com

a story on Bloomie about Paulson's son bringing a hockey team to Portland:

That left a $15 million hole that Paulson says must be filled by Sept. 1, or the stadium won’t be done in time for the 2011 MLS season. He says he can’t commit any more family money. He and his father are paying $35 million for the franchise and $12.5 million for the stadiums. They’re also guaranteeing rent and ticket taxes for 25 years and will pick up construction overruns beyond $2.5 million.
“We’ve ended up putting a lot more on the table to make this thing happen,” Paulson, 36, said in an interview in his office overlooking a rainy baseball field.

Makes Me Just Wanna Open a Box of Hankies! Waaaaa!

My short sale rule proposal:

If you can borrow it, you can sell it

It figures that Paulson would invest in soccer in America, a mortal lock on losses is all that's assured whether your team wins or loses on the field of play.

Anyone in the DC, NoVa area seeing rent declines / concessions?

My renewal comes up soon...wondering what room to negotiate I have and what method is best to negotiate.

I've been in the place 4 years.

"Pulte buying Centex reminds me of the Donner party."

It reminds me more of a hillbilly wedding. You have one mutant first cousin marrying another mutant first cousin and the family is hoping something beautiful will come about. I just can't fathom that Pulte shareholders are happy about a 30% premium they are paying. I know I wouldn't be. Thank god I quit that stupid stock market thingie.

Can't help but bring this up:

' some investor guy (member) wrote on Tue, 04/07/2009 - 2:56pm.
Actually, as I've said here before, it's really hard to find any metro area where there has been a 5% decline in overall rents. Hasn't happened in Detroit, despite its economic problems. It didn't happen in LA in the early 1990s, even with a recession, riots, and the prior housing bust in full swing.
Real rents decline sometimes, nominal rents almost never decline more than 5%.'

and

' some investor guy (member) wrote on Tue, 04/07/2009 - 4:37pm.
Los Angeles, CPI component for rent.
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual HALF1 HALF2
1999 167.5 167.9 168.1 168.5 168.8 169.6 170.2 170.6 171.3 171.6 172.4 172.8 169.9 168.4 171.5
2000 173.5 174.0 174.4 175.1 175.7 176.3 177.0 177.7 178.2 179.1 179.8 180.7 176.8 174.8 178.8
2001 181.5 181.9 182.4 183.3 184.6 185.9 186.6 188.0 189.5 190.2 191.0 191.9 186.4 183.3 189.5
2002 193.2 194.0 194.5 195.2 196.0 196.8 197.4 197.5 198.4 199.4 200.3 201.1 197.0 195.0 199.0
2003 202.4 203.1 204.0 205.1 206.0 206.4 207.2 208.9 210.0 210.9 211.8 212.7 207.4 204.5 210.3
2004 213.9 214.8 215.6 216.7 218.4 220.3 221.2 223.2 224.5 225.5 226.4 227.4 220.7 216.6 224.7
2005 228.6 229.4 230.9 232.2 233.1 234.1 235.7 237.2 238.0 238.6 240.3 241.0 234.9 231.4 238.5
2006 241.7 242.5 244.0 245.6 246.9 248.3 249.3 250.5 251.4 252.7 253.7 254.9 248.5 244.8 252.1
2007 256.593 258.644 260.742 261.380 261.998 262.968 263.821 265.428 266.358 267.864 268.975 270.330 263.758 260.388 267.129
2008 271.836 272.321 272.145 272.234 273.283 274.769 276.114 276.586 278.027 279.659 280.479 280.693 275.679 272.765 278.593
2009 281.000 281.005
Hope that came out right. CPI component for rent. Los Angeles. As you can see Danny, no decrease in the last year. The three columns on the right are annual, first half of the year, and second half.'

so rents aren't really falling in LA or are you just wrapping yourself in a warm data blanket with a few pesky holes in it?

Portland's soccer problem is that their current minor league team is really only viable because they had regional rivals. Seattle and Vancouver moving into MLS leaves them with no one nearby to play, which means that their entire schedule is going to be distant road games (the closest existing team would be in Minnesota). Increased travel costs basically means move up to MLS or no more team.

Moving up means capital expenditures and over time spending more on players, but also means that they get to share in the television and sponsor revenues that MLS has, and they would have better opportunities to sell kit and stadium sponsors, as well as to dramatically improve ticket sales because the team would be so much higher profile.

Investing in soccer 15 years ago was a real risk, doing it now (at least for men's soccer) isn't nearly as risky. The league and brands are established, there are clear roadmaps for what works and more importantly what doesn't work, and there is a pretty good fanbase as long as the teams don't alienate them.

That doesn't mean it's not risk free or that it's a cash cow like the NFL, but it's something that you can look at and make work if you're smart about how you do it.

Wage laws were something an orderly society could waste time and energy worrying about, most lawsuits also.

It's a brave (well not very) new world~

Wisdom Speaker (member) wrote on Wed, 04/08/2009 - 7:23am.
Aside from finally cleaning up the fraud and financial abuse in Washington, perhaps the biggest task ahead is to find a way to halt the deflation without triggering inflation... "
Oil coming down from 145 to 50 is not deflation. Housing Price/Owners equivalent rent coming down 20% after its 150% run up is not deflation

Bookvar is wrong on short selling because his basic frame of reference is wrong. His statement "Short selling is a legitimate form of speculation" says it all. Speculation is an illegitimate form of investment, and all it's manifestations should be significantly curtailed or banned.

The price of oil is not the core component of the price of gas. Refining (including profits of the refiner) is typically about 30 cents per gallon, distribution is another quarter (includes profits of the distributors and stations), and fifty cents a gallon is the norm for taxes nationwide. The rest is the price of oil. At two dollars a gallon, oil is contributing one dollar to the price. At four dollars a gallon, it is contributing three dollars to the price, corresponding to the 300% inflation in the price of crude.

Should read not the ONLY core component of the price of gas. And if you're paying $2.30 you're paying too much, I pay $1.90 to fill up here in Boston.

Another feud for 'Mad Money' host: Economist Nouriel Roubini calls CNBC's Jim Cramer a 'buffoon'

Another feud for 'Mad Money' host: Economist Nouriel Roubini calls CNBC's Jim Cramer a 'buffoon'

"Based on the federal tax code..."

Oh, that's effin' brilliant. Let's use the tax code to mandate investment decisions.

DON'T TELL ME WHAT I CAN OR CAN'T DO WITH MY MONEY!

It's not your money, it's a representation of the common weal. You're just borrowing it.

"It's not investment at all, just betting that values are going to change."

I don't see how "investment" isn't speculating. You either hold your dollars, or you buy something with it hoping to get more money than you started with. Time frame is irrelevant.

Again, you're failing to comprehend that what you consider yours is not yours. It was given to you by the public and you are expected under the social contract to be a good steward of it. If you are not a good steward, it will be taken from you and you will be lucky to escape with your life. It's all in the Bible

I want people to work to produce things that are value to society: art, science, food, useful goods. I want them to want to do it because their work brings them satisfaction. I don't want them to be slaves to a wage system that benefits only those who are already wealthy, a ruling class that exploits the weak and powerless and takes what little they have to give it to an upper middle class that will in turn exploit the lower middle class until it too is poor.

But you're entitled to your view of society, for now.

Dead Monkey,

All those things you want are your specific wants. You basically listed off a bunch of talking points about how the world would be better if you were dictator.

ATM Card,

When you buy the truck for work, you are speculating that there is a demand for your carpet cleaning services, most likely at a price that makes your operation profitable. You are speculating. Everything is speculating because no one knows what the future holds.

Whereas your perspective is based on a world where you ARE the dictator. My worldview is pie in the sky utopianism whereas yours is great because it's the current dominant paradigm and you believe that you are secure in your power and position because you measure your life in dollars. You're here because you're concerned that you're about to lose it to market forces beyond your control but you have no idea how much you have to lose.

This is a nightmare scenario for you. For me it's just a painful stretch of what will ultimately be history.

"speculation is a financial action that does not promise safety of the initial investment along with the return on the principal sum."

Which financial actions DO promise safety of initial investment and return of principal.

And I can't believe people think there is a real difference between speculation and investment when most people's base currency is U.S. dollars and Ben is trying to get you out of dollars, into paper assets. This whole batshit loony system is pure speculation.

And I quit.

the differential between the decline in oil prices and the decline in gas prices is taxes, which have not changed

I am used to Popeye being on the other side of my trades, but I am surprised to see him on the other side of this definition. I am with Basel Too, after giving allowance for the brevity of his formula.

Besides, when Graham and Dodd wrote, "upon thorough analysis," they were quite literally talking their book.

We expect that disinflationary forces combined with overt quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve will push the 30-year fixed rate mortgage down from the current 4.85% rate to 4.2% by year-end

anybody seeing 4.85%?

Why should someone else collect your garbage? You should clean up after yourself. This isn't a life of luxury here, this is a life of responsibility and accountability.

Depends on how much garbage there is. If you're presuming that we're going to continue in this disposable culture then you'll have a lot of it. If not then you'll have community gardens etc where you can compost or you'll have suburban farmers coming into the city to scavenge waste for composting, and other items will be reused or repaired, or scavenged for parts and raw materials. Scavenging has been an important factor of economic life for thousands of years.

There are social structures that don't involve paying one person to exclusively take away all the crap that you bought that you don't need anymore.

Sorry, I'm confused. Rents should only go down because of falling demand/rising vacancies. How can foreclosures can be spiking and rents decreasing at the same time? Where are all the folks who owned homes and rented apartments two years ago living now? I can't believe that reverse illegal immigration or additional homelessness, or overbuilding since 2007, explains the gap.