In general,when you have a chart showing three years or more of data I think that it is more instructive to show data that is NOT seasonally adjusted. The extant to which the numbers are seasonal can be easily determined, and if, say a few million has been moved forward or back a month, the few million are represented by the same length of line.
Look at that chart, this Oct could be fun! I'm more worried about the Debt Limit at the moment. They're not voting on that till Fri. That's St Patties day. Maybe they'll slip it through, then go drink. Or maybe they'll forget to cause the "tearrists" are trin' ta buy our ports. I really do not think are law makers take this stuff seriously enough. I've never seen them wait this long. What are they waiting for?
There must be something about Industrial Goods that is getting more expensive....I wonder what that is....
I'm betting it's the Shipping. My favorite beer is from Germany. And I know the owner of the place I buy it from. Price when from $25 a case to $30. Cause the shipping cost of imports went up. It's an Oil economy! High oil prices made my beer cost more! I'm sure the shipping cost of tractors is more too.
Deficits don't matter, at least if you look at FX markets. The dollar actually gained quite broadly in the wake of this terrible data. If the dollar keeps strengthening even after the rate tightening cycle is over (which would be insane), then I say Dick Cheney should be given the Nobel Prize in Economics for proclaiming that deficits don't matter.
This world is messed up, and I feel that it will all end very badly.
I didn't mean to sound snarky about the seasonal adjustment. I sometimes have a problem with that. It's just that the barchart format that you've the data into is PARTICULARLY well suited to the display of Non-seasonaly adjusted data.
If the dollar keeps strengthening even after the rate tightening cycle is over (which would be insane), then I say Dick Cheney should be given the Nobel Prize in Economics for proclaiming that deficits don't matter.
If that happens I hope the Nobel selection committee members all go hunting with him.
vorpal -- on price changes I watch the index of import prices for consumer goods excluding autos and petroleum. After several years of falling this index has clearly bottomed and is now moving significantly higher -- something worth watching.
[i]on price changes I watch the index of import prices for consumer goods excluding autos and petroleum[/i]
where can one find this information?
btw Andy Xie the china specialist at Morgan Stanly has been saying since long that China is no longer exporting deflation.
More to come.
More news, more deficits or both? Almost scared to ask.
Yeah, me too (re dryfly's question)
I think he's one of those people who likes to get the good news out of the way first.
In general,when you have a chart showing three years or more of data I think that it is more instructive to show data that is NOT seasonally adjusted. The extant to which the numbers are seasonal can be easily determined, and if, say a few million has been moved forward or back a month, the few million are represented by the same length of line.
Jim:: I agree.
I also noticed that Industrial Goods surpassed Consumer Goods as the leading end-use category.
There must be something about Industrial Goods that is getting more expensive....I wonder what that is....
Look at that chart, this Oct could be fun! I'm more worried about the Debt Limit at the moment. They're not voting on that till Fri. That's St Patties day. Maybe they'll slip it through, then go drink. Or maybe they'll forget to cause the "tearrists" are trin' ta buy our ports. I really do not think are law makers take this stuff seriously enough. I've never seen them wait this long. What are they waiting for?
There must be something about Industrial Goods that is getting more expensive....I wonder what that is....
I'm betting it's the Shipping. My favorite beer is from Germany. And I know the owner of the place I buy it from. Price when from $25 a case to $30. Cause the shipping cost of imports went up. It's an Oil economy! High oil prices made my beer cost more! I'm sure the shipping cost of tractors is more too.
"The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that the U.S. trade deficit for January was $68.5 Billion."
Oy. That's gonna leave a mark.
$68.5B x 12M = $822B p/a.
Pure, unmitigated insanity is what we have here, folks.
we should hit $1 trillion by the end of the decade. my what an accomplishment.
how about capital inflows? are they still exceeding trade deficit by 50%?
Jim, I agree. I just had the SA data available and the Census bureau just changed their format - so I have to dig around to find the old data.
Best to all.
Deficits don't matter, at least if you look at FX markets. The dollar actually gained quite broadly in the wake of this terrible data. If the dollar keeps strengthening even after the rate tightening cycle is over (which would be insane), then I say Dick Cheney should be given the Nobel Prize in Economics for proclaiming that deficits don't matter.
This world is messed up, and I feel that it will all end very badly.
"we should hit $1 trillion by the end of the decade. my what an accomplishment."
End of the decade? I'd say end of next year, provided that a recession and/or dollar collapse doesn't happen between then and now.
I didn't mean to sound snarky about the seasonal adjustment. I sometimes have a problem with that. It's just that the barchart format that you've the data into is PARTICULARLY well suited to the display of Non-seasonaly adjusted data.
If the dollar keeps strengthening even after the rate tightening cycle is over (which would be insane), then I say Dick Cheney should be given the Nobel Prize in Economics for proclaiming that deficits don't matter.
If that happens I hope the Nobel selection committee members all go hunting with him.
vorpal -- on price changes I watch the index of import prices for consumer goods excluding autos and petroleum. After several years of falling this index has clearly bottomed and is now moving significantly higher -- something worth watching.
[i]on price changes I watch the index of import prices for consumer goods excluding autos and petroleum[/i]
where can one find this information?
btw Andy Xie the china specialist at Morgan Stanly has been saying since long that China is no longer exporting deflation.