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Truth in advertising.
The best view in Sacremento is from an apartment you rent while watching the residential market "pop."
Was the client trying to be sardonic?
Was the ad person smoking dope and thinking the client was too dumb to notice, and obviously he/she was, there's the picture in living color.
This is simply unbelieveable.
It's a classic case of co-opting a competing meme. If the viewer is only vaguely aware of the "housing bubble" at the catch phrase level it is possible to "fill in the details" for them. Think "swift boat".
Brought to you by the marketing department that brought you "New Coke".
Somebody somehwhere reviewed that ad and thought it was good! Too funny. 2008 projection post is up if anyone wants to have another laugh.
what is it that i am seeing in the reflection? an airport terminal?
Channeling my inner Ben Franklin, I at first wondered, "is that an expanding bubble, or a collapsing bubble?" I am now sure it is collapsing bubble.
Obviously Kilmore (Ok, Kimball Homes) thought the ad was worth paying for (until he ran across CR.blog...and is currently renegotiating)...and who are we to dispute the short commute to the airport?
And those noise levels that make it hard to tell whether the damn lawn mower is still going?
Well, we are so indoor-outdoor carpet now in our adaptive environment.
You can tell at a glance from the absence of occupants outside in many of these ads that they must all be hiding inside...isn't that the socially disturbing message?
Ok, time to leave the monitor and be observed walking the dog.
As a frequent traveler to Sacramento I can say that Kimball Homes has had at least 1 ad in the Terminal A for at least a year... I don't think I've seen this particular ad before, but I always chuckled as I went past...
If you want to do a "greatest hits" retrospective, you might go back to that picture of a house that had been uprooted and then left next to a busy highway, with readers asked to submit captions.
The only thing that would make it more subliminally accurate is if they had included a picture of a tank.
It's a subtle ad, probably pretty effective. Ads work on a subliminal level, especially in public places.
The ad is about breaking out of the box, standing out from the crowd, in a bubble market where everything looks the same.
It's subliminally about having a house that your neighbors will envy. The VIEW is what your neighbors will see when they look at your house. It reinforces the builder's positioning as a semi-custom builder of affordable homes.
Some things...you have to be a journalist to understand.
I always point non-believers to the
[Ooops.]
I always point non-believers to the Sacramento area Flippers In Trouble blog.
Absolutely jaw-dropping information.
Somebody put a sticker of a dart on that poster
"Some things...you have to be a journalist to understand."
Snicker.
Yes, and the brochures for the Titantic featured the majestic "snow mountains" they would view as they cruised through the arctic.
That reminds me of the powerpoint presentation David Lereah a while back that had all the bubbles floating in the background.
Snicker all you want. It's only stupid people who snicker.
There's a nasty bearish quality that has crept onto the board that has dragged down collective ability to see and analyze clearly.
Here's a builder that's trying to be creative, acknowledge the bubble and encourage homebuyers to rise above it. What could be more entrepreneurial or creative than that? Some people just assume the ad agency is dim-witted or stupid, but it's neither. You can't criticize ads without knowing who their market is and what they're trying to achieve. The way the ad agency has acknowledged the bubble is pretty subtle and clever.
It's not CR or some bloggers who are nasty bears. It's another blogger and other posters, IMHO. Keep your minds and eyes open in 08! There are winners and losers in every debacle.
I think it's unfair that CR and Tanta get all this journalistic recognition while rich, with all his knowledge, flounders around in complete obscurity.
Hey, I worked on the college paper for a few years alongside the journalism majors. I can confirm that they receive a lot of "training," and that significant training is indeed required to write hundreds of thousands of words in year without saying (or knowing) anything.
This author expresses no opinion as to any particular few hundred thousand words written by any particular journalist, and has no opinion on whether the ads in the Sacramento airport would be effective in appealing to anyone who would want to live in Sacramento. This author is not implying fraud or fraud-related activities on the part of any home builder, home seller, home buyer, or mortgage procurer.
"It's the best VIEW in the NEIGHBORHOOD" because this is what it looks like when you look out the window.
That Sacramento flippers thing is incredible. Those are nice, big houses. And there is probably another 20% to go.
Did something awful happen in Sacramento?
Rich, it seems that bubble is for better visual and possibly to get attention of married with children demographics. I would not read too much into this, and let's just say that the ad is cheesy, with VIEW and Neighbourhood, etc. I am not in joirnalism but in marketing. Of course you can spin it up.
oh brother
FT - Prepare for a global economic downturn but not a disaster / by: Wolfgang Munchau... quote: This is not really a "subprime" or "credit" crisis, as it is frequently called. This is a banking crisis. (I agree.)
FT.com / Columnists / Wolfgang Munchau - Prepare for a global economic downturn
this falls into the yeah, whatever camp-
"Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Centro Properties Group, facing a Feb. 15 deadline to refinance A$3.9 billion ($3.4 billion) of debt, said it is seeking buyers for the company."
Centro Puts Itself Up for Sale as Debt Deadline Looms (Update6) - Bloomberg.com
jane / joe
You poor,dumb,ignorant
non-journalistas.
I write boo-koo words , for big bucks.
which i will not cite ,
due to my humble nature.
I hope my enlightenment will
encourage you to adopt my views.
dICK
Do not feed the trolls.
Sacramento is going to be a poster child in 2008. Pretty much every speculative and market distortion imaginable contributed to their run up and will hurt twice over on the downside. State cutbacks will gut the high end market for government professionals. The downtown is massively overbuilt. Long time hotbed of speculation, Casey Serin lives there. The Real Estate industry is infested with the worst kinds of shills. Geography sucks. Worst is the age of and distribution of the housing stock. The last few years has seen an explosion of oversized, shoddy, generic tracts. Most of which could be duplicated for 40¢ on the dollar compared to the wishing prices we see now. There is only one bright spot. At least Sacramento isn't Merced.
New math, my ass, "PIK" your sorry ass while "toggling" to the unemployment line, dumb bastards-
""We are all grappling with the new math," says the head of debt investments for one major private equity firm. "Nobody can predict how it plays out. We've never seen this many high-yield loans outstanding, this much of a backlog or this many unclosed mergers.""
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22465467/
My New Year's Wish: Donald Trump, Jim Cramer & Angie Mozilo start an RE investment fund with their "own" (money stolen from others) pooled money, buying up central CA & Inland Empire homes in early '08.
If only we could be so lucky.
Did something awful happen in Sacramento?
Lawyerliz
Arnie came to tow
rich, I hope you're not this tedious at cocktail parties, too.
This is up there with the RE-MAX hot air balloon ad.And I thin Rich is right,it takes special education to really understand things like this,just as you need an art degree to even begin to understand some conceptual art...because that degree of narcissism is beyond the comprehension of normal folk
Ha Ha Ha,
What you fellow BubbleHeads fail to realize is that only you can see the bubbles. To everyone else, the bubbles don't exist--at least not for another year or two anyway.
Rob Dawg ,
You are correct.
A moment of weakness ?
My cupboard is bare.
dICK
Didn't a lot of the recent Sacred Tomato stuff get built in places like Natomas, which would be under major water in a levee break on the Sacramento River? And isn't it Central Valley builders who most loudly object to state legislative proposals to prohibit construction in such locations
If this were Stockton we were discussing I'd also ask if $3+/gal. gasoline isn't a problem for people building "inexpensive" (relative to the Bay Area) housing so far away from the Bay Area jobs the owners of this "inexpensive" housing were meant to hold. I know some people commute from Sacramento to the Bay Area, just not sure how pervasive that particular pattern is.
Why not go haiku with that, dude?
So, you are correct
A brief moment of weakness?
My cupboard is still barre
hahaha,
too much ny wine...
So, you are correct
A brief moment of weakness?
My cupboard is bare
Tom! that degree of narcissism is beyond the comprehension of normal folk
Well, taking the gloves off, aren't we? Were you referring just to conceptual art?
OK, I'm tired of the airy proclamations of brilliance from those who don't have to wade around in the real world trenches like the rest of us. It must be wonderful to be an onlooker who doesn't have to deal with the regular people who are getting their rates raised and their hopes dashed in such large numbers. Still - grit your teeth and exercise charity. In a world of insane underwriting we need charity of spirit even more.
Someday the bulls will have their day. If I had my druthers, that day would be now. Unfortunately, goodwill does not pay debt, so I am afraid the Day of the Bull must be postponed.
2 ,
thx , needed a good laugh !
Rich is not a troll, he is a longtime contributor with many good ideas who sometimes takes himself too seriously. I think it is important to distinguish someone like that from trolls who show up out of nowhere or use multiple aliases. Many of us fall into the trap of taking ourselves too seriously once in a while.
Rob Dawg ,
You are correct.
A moment of weakness ?
My cupboard is bare.
dICK
Thanks for the reminder.
This might be a good time to switch names. henceforth I'll use Rob Dawg.
I was wondering if that was the same rich who usually has good comments. I'm not sold...
The dICK will now die,
Wish long life to the Rob Dawg,
And now I am dead.
albrt posts a casual remark about the thread and hopes we all take a break and tickle our toes...something.
So easy to take rich's wonderful sarcasm at face value: lookit that pretty picture and see how clever itiz with that bubble encapsulation...nevamind about the empty bubbles beside it or the familiar character of bubbles (that dramatic ending esp), think 'up UP and Away!' like rich and the power of marketing to move stressed-out ticklish minds...such a killer up-beat ad...a few years too late.
In China, 2008 is the Year of the Rat. I'm afraid globally however, 2008 will be the year of the bear. Doesn't happen often or last long normally at least, so you grouchy bears might as well live it up!
Poor Sebastian. He even got clobbered last year.
Actually, all I'm saying is that I think it's OK to give Rich a hard time when he deserves it, as opposed to trolls who should be ignored.
I am clarifying this distinction in part for my own benefit, as I am working on my ignoring skills.
I lived in Sacramento for quite some time. As I was preparing to leave in April 2005, I decided to spend $15 or so to visit a commercial real estate luncheon where an expert was going to speak.
Even though I came in nice pants, nice shirt and maybe a tie, I was painfully underdressed. Ouch.
The speaker, who was in his late fifties or sixties, laid out the case why you couldn't go wrong with Sacramento (calmly, not as a sales pitch):
- the area didn't have earthquakes
- the land around was flat, and could be expanded into
- the Bay area was dreadfully expensive
He foresaw the Sac metro area (about 1.5 million, I think) spreading north and south, merging with Stockton.
Afterwards, I asked him if an amateur could enter RE investing. He said that one could, that there were always good deals to be had because of market imperfections, implying that one had to develop one's assessment skills and not just go with any property at any price.
I was in Germany in 1985 and '86, East and West both. I asked about 20 people when they thought the Wall would come down. I got a variety of answers:
-not in my life
- 20 years
- 40 years
Not one person said: it'll be down inside of five years. Not one.
They say black swans can't fly, and that the likelihood of one pooping while it is directly overhead is a million to one.
But dang, those turds do smell!
Americans are becoming more nasty and cynical in general. Our health care system is broken, so people say nasty, cynical things about doctors and nurses. It takes a lot of hard work and study to become a doctor or nurse. It isn't their fault that our healthcare system is broken.
The MSM is wrecked. But it isn't the fault of people who work and study hard to become journalists. Most of what journalists know that is valuable, they learn on the job. The sad fact is that there aren't a dwindling number of good journalism jobs left in our country to train them.
Blogs are putting journalists out of work. No question about that. But it doesn't mean blogs will be as commercially successful as MSM have been. Only a tiny minority of blogs will survive and become successful commercially. When you say nasty things about who's successful and who's obscure, just remember that time will tell. I hope that CR and Tanta can continue to build this blog as long as I've been writing for a living productively, 30+ years.
You don't survive by cultivating an inward looking group of nasty bears. The prototype nasty bear site is Housing Panic and it's basically become a blogger who talks to his own aliases. Don't let that happen here.
Nothing beats nasty bears more than whining about nasty bears because people called BS on your absuridist take on an absurd ad.
Just because some wacky pitch man spent hours coming up with an idea and rationalized it's delicious irony doesn't make it any better.
You don't survive by cultivating an inward looking group of nasty bears.
I'd note that the nasty bears, thus far, have been correct this go 'round. And I say this as someone still indexed and long the stock market, equally split domestic and euro.
Yes the bearishness can get out of hand at times, but a lot of the bulls have had thier credibility absolutely nuked in the last six months. (cough seb cough)
Cheers,
prat
"But it doesn't mean blogs will be as commercially successful as MSM have been."
They don't have to be "commercially" successful, that is why they are usually ahead of the curve rather then behind it. No big money is skewing the truth.
Well MOM,I suppose I did take one glove off.And conceptual Artists are the easiest to lampoon,however I have run across the same attitude among Beltway Types,"media people" and other groups that are intellectually incestous.I have noticed that there is a direct correlation between their sense of superiority and entitlement and their moral cowardice.And journalists are certainly among the worst...even those competent enough to express themselves with clarity would soon be out of a job if they were honest.I am sure the example of the late Gary Webb of the San Jose "Mercury News" was not lost on those in the profession.so we get Judy Miller.I wouldn't pi$$ on most "journalists if they were afire.
I think rich's take on the ad is defensible, we are definitely not the target audience. I appreciate his concern for the continued success of CR's blog but I think it's misplaced. As long as Tanta can post her pig art, well, the vitality of the community is assured.
BTW- if I am ever involved with any legal action in connection with this blog, I plan to use the insanity defense. Reading the last couple days of comments I see a surprising number of you are planning to use the same defense.
rich, commercial news media did itself in. RIP and good riddance. There will still be professional dilletantes, but they won't have job security. That was decided with finality in Detroit in the 1990s.
Speaking of which, isn't it ironic that Mitch Albom, that scab, will never know whom one meets in heaven, due to being barred as an aforesaid scab?
rich, FWIW I've found the vast majority of your comments on this board to be insightful and worthy of making an effort to comprehend. Not so much the past week or so, but on balance very worthwhile.
BOL to you,
I live in Sacramento, and to chip in my two cents, everything Mr. Cote says is true. A massively overheated market, building on floodplains (that were once rice fields), poorly constructed new housing, downtown office speculation that has ruined any chance for our downtown to be anything but an ugly ghost town at night. Included with that we had a huge number of flippers who helped distort the market (I live across the alley to one - I wonder how far underwater they are), traffic worsened to the point that the freeways are almost undriveable three times a day (and inadequate public transit of course), and rubber-stamp city/county governments that never said no to a developer who kissed their behind and breathed the magic words "tax revenue" in their ear. They also okayed some of the most harebrained development schemes, some of which have now happily collapsed. Now I happen to like the place and have lived here for many years, did not participate and am sitting pretty (at least housing-wise), but I am dismayed about what has happened and hope that the politicians that allowed it will get run out of town.
I take exception to the association of "nasty" with "bears". There are the occasional undignified exchanges, but that has nothing to do with one's view of present (& near future) circumstances.
This advert is one thing short of perfection:
A Mortgage Pig, upside down, and underwater.
Looking back at stories from this time last year, nobody was predicting that cracks in the subprime mortgage market, which were already appearing, would cause the credit markets to seize up, spill over into unrelated investments such as money market funds and municipal bonds, cost the chief executives of Merrill Lynch and Citigroup their jobs and lead to foreign governments bailing out some of our largest financial institutions - with nary a peep of protest.
Kathleen Pender's crystal ball looks for a bolt out of the blue
Blogs 100 - profesional journalists 0
[I take exception to the association of "nasty" with "bears"]
How does "grouchy" work? Better?
Most blogs start out as hobbies and labors of love. But it's hard to sustain the energy over time unless you develop momentum and discipline. The momentum leads to monetization and the discipline is created when you start thinking of the blog as a real business with revenues, expenses, etc.
It's not much different than a person who loves writing poetry, science fiction, whatever. The ability to turn it into a viable business helps it continue, expand and improve.
With a blog like this, it's a balancing act between keeping the sharp edge and not letting it turn into negative insults against innocent people. I saw it starting to turn that way with the help of a blogger, so I decided to say something about it.
Its a large ad, probably pretty mean, too. Ads work on a physical level, especially in county fairs.
The ad is about getting behind the barrel, honking that silly, oversized horn, in an arena where everyone wants to see your brightly dressed ass kicked.
Its subliminally about having the biggest balls in the rodeo. The VIEW is what the other cowboys see when you get stomped by two tons of irritated beef.
Some things . . . you have to be a rodeo clown to understand.
@rich: "You don't survive by cultivating an inward looking group of nasty bears."
It's called the echo chamber effect, and you can see it in action on many, many blogs. And while the housing bears have been right, that doesn't change the fact that many of them--such as many of the regulars at Housing Panic and The Housing Bubble Blog--are insufferable.
Consequently, I waste little time on those blogs, and choose to spend most of my time where there's actually a real dialogue, such as here at CalculatedRisk and over at Exurban Nation (Rob Dawg's blog.)
The bears were the lone voices in the wilderness for years and were the subject of endless scorn, now too many of them have simply turned around and thrown the same attitude right back at the bulls. The bears were right at present, but the bulls have been right and will be right yet, and the different perspectives can contribute to a meaningful debate.
MTHood, that was awesome.
How subprime lending started
How subprime lending all started in O.C. | subprime, beach, mortgage - Business - The Orange County Register
Funny, seems like the bulls have been the grouchy ones, given that things haven't exactly gone their way. Won't be a good year for them, too, so I guess we better watch out.
I'd like to clarify something from a previous thread. I wasn't the first or foremost blogger here to warn of problems in municipal finance. Other bloggers here have done a great job posting good ideas and documents on that theme.
I advanced two themes that still haven't been picked up by others:
That's no bubble, that's just "froth."
Really spooky parallel:
"It's not much different than a person who loves writing poetry, science fiction, whatever. The ability to turn it into a viable business helps it continue, expand and improve."
-rich
"In other countries, art and literature are left to a lot of shabby bums living in attics and feeding on booze and spaghetti, but in America the successful writer or picture-painter is indistinguishable from any other decent business man . . . "
-George Babbitt
T-S-, Gary Webb's book, 'Dark Alliance,' was a good one, a real eye opener.
Another brave journalist: Len Colodny; what a jaw-dropper his book was, 'Silent Coup.'
Brave journalists are invaluable. rich, do us a public service and go bust some political schmucks damaging the public, like the idiot running the Florida cash fund.
OT -- that's almost comical, how wrong the economists were on Singapore's Q4 GDP: came in falling 3.2% when 'economists' were expecting a 3.1% gain.
Singapore's GDP Unexpectedly Shrinks on Weaker Output (Update7) - Bloomberg.com
Man, those Chinese work hard if they already have an estimate of Q4 GDP out on the streets.
threoxylandr had some interesting 2008 predictions today and gave Calculated Risk a plug
The Theroxylandr in Flame
I was watching a PBS show today and they interviewed one Wall Street suit who said he thought the S&P 500 would go up 10-15% in 2008. When they asked him why, he said: "Fed rate cuts, yen carry, and Paulson's PPT team."
I kid you not.
You don't survive by cultivating an inward looking group of nasty bears. The prototype nasty bear site is Housing Panic
Shouldn't that be "archetype"?
So I hear you rich...defending the honorable practice of not being one of those "nasty bears" who is just not making a worthwhile contribution with all that gratuitous negativity. Mosquitoes, no? Or did you mean that CR was inviting some of them to the site with this (clever by half!) [It does depend on whether you think its true that all publicity is good publicity, yes?] (And so decidable with the sales at Kimball Hill Homes...monitoring just how discerning its clients are, yes?) carefully constructed photo?
Dr Wu is right we need the un-clipped "photo" showing the tank...and kibitzers from CR with little placards filling out the larger "view".
From FFDIC's link to Wolfgang Munchau-
"The macroeconomic effects of a financial and banking crisis of such scale are not trivial. Economic forecasters frequently underestimate the importance of credit and financial channels."
Conjure Bag says, "Jawohl!"
"In other countries, art and literature are left to a lot of shabby bums living in attics and feeding on booze and spaghetti, but in America the successful writer or picture-painter is indistinguishable from any other decent business man . . . "
That's a good quote. But I don't know. They say Leonardo da Vinci made torture devices in his spare time for a duke, to keep his art career going.
Conjure Bag issues a challenge to CR commenters:
"Name one U.S. banking crisis that did not precipitate a recession."
rich,
Okay, since you brought up a real debate topic -- government.
One of the next shoes to drop is major job losses among public servants and government contractors. The housing bubble hyperinflated revenues, and now the bust is going to decimate them.
Thoughts, anyone?
mp-
Amen to that one brother.
Tough period ahead, but manageable.
tj-
I believe the first four weeks of the year will bring a new meaning to the word "volatility".
risk capital,
Don't tease me, bro -- I'm long the January VIX!
"Don't tease me, bro -- I'm long the January VIX!"
Conjure has a saying:
"There's no Ho, Ho, Ho, so look out below."
Conjure is, of course, referring to the Santa Claus rally that didn't happen.
At least not yet, LOL.
It's called the echo chamber effect, and you can see it in action on many, many blogs. And while the housing bears have been right, that doesn't change the fact that many of them--such as many of the regulars at Housing Panic and The Housing Bubble Blog--are insufferable.
They only get insufferable when someone in the chorus sings off key too often or too loudly. That was always my problem, I'm only bearish not a bear. There are going to be several once in a lifetime opportunities in the coming upheaval and those places just don't seem to be able to look past the near term.
Consequently, I waste little time on those blogs, and choose to spend most of my time where there's actually a real dialogue, such as here at CalculatedRisk and over at Exurban Nation (Rob Dawg's blog.)
Thanks for the compliment. CR is the place of record, EN is just a comfortable place to hang out and have a pint after all the hard work done here.
The bears were the lone voices in the wilderness for years and were the subject of endless scorn, now too many of them have simply turned around and thrown the same attitude right back at the bulls. The bears were right at present, but the bulls have been right and will be right yet, and the different perspectives can contribute to a meaningful debate.
it isn't so much the bulls or bears ass it is the pigs and jackasses. Last year (Jul 06) Greg Swann put out a list of 21 Reasons why Phoenix real estate was not going to go down. When confronted with the facts and a deadly dissection of his argument he resorted to calling his opponents Brownshirt Nazis and flying monkeys. To this day he continues to tout his open and honest and tolerant and ethical blogging style. e and many others I could name represent the opposite of the high standards, commity and accountability that is CR.
tj-
Good luck with that, Friday should be interesting.
with that in mind, you have been teased all year and the Vix has been quite tame. (: Shit, I remember the Vix in the 50's after 9-11, this shit is cream puff crap compared to then.
To extend on my prior "government" comments...
The single largest creator of jobs this century has been government -- city, county, state & federal. Bolstered by outsized revenues, even CA's constitutionally limited finances are up 40% under the governator. Furthermore, all that bloat has been baked in via overly generous pay, pensions & benefits to public servants. What happens when all that revenue (and more) disappears but the debts & obligations stay?
You think Sacramento homeowners are underwater...
mp,
The Santa Claus rally happened. You must've blinked and missed it.
rich,
You are reasoning too shallowly, or at least characterizing that way - I was 100% long (in my limited way) until July - will be again some day but not for now...many divergent viewpoints get aired here, and a few self-important ones not only get aired they get punctured as well!
"With a blog like this, it's a balancing act between keeping the sharp edge"
You mean a blog has to be fair and balanced?? It needs to give as much airtime and importance to CR as to Lereah, just because some bulls will be discouraged to come here??? Thank you dude, but sorry, this is not an animal farm. Especially, we already got one pig here, and we cannot hire another one like you.
To summarize, CR and Tanta have been smart enough to keep this audience hooked for so long, and I am sure they will notice any future change in wind and respond accordingly.
risk capital,
No doubt! I'm normally a buy-and-hold guy (via LEAPS), but August & November were damned roller-coasters for my May VIX calls. If I were a better technician I might have made some nice interim gains. Got my eye on the big prize, though.
Picked up the Jan's just a few weeks ago, and since have been up & down enough to make anyone sick.
Future CNBC reporter
YouTube - Carli Blum reports on the subprime mortgage crisis
energyecon,
I didn't even get into my Jan 09 LEAP puts until May, too. Getting in too early on options can kill you.
Freud would have understood, I'm sure. Rather like verbal mistakes that reveal what one is really thinking/feeling, etc. Freudian slip in advertising, as it were.
Conjure says, "Santa could have used some Viagra."
I think if commercial media were as open to commentary as the blogs are, it would be a lot better off right now.
A lot of us recognize that the country is in trouble, rich, and this is one place we look for information on that trouble. Is the mainstream media giving us that information? No. That's why we are here.
Don't denigrate the comment makers. Just as you don't want doctors, nurses, journalists, whoever denigrated, those who comment here don't appreciate it either.
Concern trolls are rarely welcomed, rich.
TJ:
True, government spending has quickly accellerated this past few years. I'm not sure what part of that is due to rising home values.
Someone I think on this blog suggested that college tuitions/costs are actually in a bit of a bubble as well.
I personally know three, maybe four of my aquaintences that have financed their educational fantasies with a HELOC. I don't know how typical that is.
College enrollments may actually drop during this recession, who knows? That's not typical... in recessions the proletariat usually goes back to school to 'retool' for another job.
Add that to your potential Black Swan bird count.
Conjure is, of course, referring to the Santa Claus rally that didn't happen.
That was the Santa Claus rally.
God I wish I didn't dollar cost average.
Cheers,
prat
Another brave journalist: Len Colodny; what a jaw-dropper his book was, 'Silent Coup.'
Brave, maybe. Also completely and totally wrong.
Rich said: "I wasn't the first or foremost blogger here..."
Correction, unless you are the alter-ego of either Tanta or CR, you are not a blogger here. You, like the rest of us, are a commenter here.
Now, hop off your pedestal and rejoin the great unwashed masses.
Tanta's Pig said:
"You mean a blog has to be fair and balanced?? It needs to give as much airtime and importance to CR as to Lereah, just because some bulls will be discouraged to come here???"
If we go by the FOX News definition of fair and balanced, everyone is fair and balanced. Suprime fair and balanced.
The ad looks like my neighbors house after I chugged a bottle of wine and used the empty as a telescope.
The reason for my post-holiday drinking was this article by Moe Bedard and Aaron Krowne entitled:
"Its Not All Subprime. Pay Option ARMs - Californias Billion Pound Gorilla"
Pay Option ARM's - California's Billion Pound Gorilla | LoanWorkout.org
I guess I should move my rainy day fund from WaMu to somewhere safer, but where? All the financial institutions in Northern California are, directly or indirectly, up to their eyeballs in this real estate merde.
BofA and World Savings have been taken over Noth Carolina white trash. A month ago, the nice, helpful teller tried to talk me into moving my savings into one of their non-FDIC insured money market funds, bless her heart.
My neighborhood bank has been bought out by Wells Fargo so the competent, friendly, local service, will degenerate into mega-bank sausage grinding. (Last winter, someone counterfeited our corpoarate checks. My local bank caught it before money left the account. Wells Fargo was the one who deposited the check. bozos!)
My someone from credit union was quoted in the newspaper making positive noises about mortgages and real estate. Is he really that clueless? Scared the hell out of me.
Can't go there.
I feel like I'm back in Texas in 1980s. Dead banks to the left of me, zombie savings and loans to the right, stuck in the middle again...
(Last winter, someone counterfeited our corpoarate checks. My local bank caught it before money left the account. Wells Fargo was the one who deposited the check. bozos!)
Yeah Wells Fargo let someone mysterious take $25/month from my account for several months with newfangled checks (ones I never saw or wrote) and when I took notice, WF made it damn difficult to get my money back on top of my having to close the account. Low opinion of them (I have).
James, not that you asked, but try Positive Pay. That should take care of unauthorized checks.
There's nothing wrong with Sacramento's real estate market that a 50 percent correction won't fix.
After Katrina, Sacramento became a poster child for underfunded civic infrastructure, and it was noted that parts of the levees along the American River are 100 years old or more. These are the same levees that protect the spankin' new residential development in the natural flood plain, known as Natomas.
About every 10 years, the river floods that area, and the last time was in 1996 - if I recall correctly.
With the downturn in the market, there won't be any money to build up the levees and protect these developments, of which Natomas is only one, and the residents will soon find themselves underwater - both figuratively and literally.
_