what's bogus about the delinquency rate number being reported vs. the last recession, is that it's not comparing apples to apples. if you plow thru enough 10k's you come to realize that the most banks have widened out the late-payment window before they declare a loan delinquent. My best guesstimate is that the real delinquency rate is probably double what's being reported
WSJ Commentary
Transparency and the Fed /by: Henry Kaufman (very good early 2008 article on Fed transparency and what is sorely lacking in banks) Transparency and the Fed - WSJ.com
If John Edwards' message keeps catching, some middle-class people may decide to avoid getting squeezed by the greedy corporations by refusing to pay their debts.
Maybe this is about more than the inability to repay money.
--
There WAS and STILL IS only one game in town for America's ruling Crooks -- to keep pushing debt on households (sometimes indirectly with the Federal govt. tax cuts and deficit spending). When they can't the game will end.
The outcome of the game? The Greater Depression.
Born-and-bred dopes don't understand the simple four-letter word debt and its consequences. They will learn it the hard way. In the brainwashing (propaganda) department Americas ruling Crooks put Nazis to shame.
What is NYC Bankrupters' main goal? To bankrupt as many households as possible! And with OPM!!
OT - Bloomberg article stating Creditors seem to be back in the driver's seat on loan terms and rates judging from rate increases in loan modifications.
"Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- For investors stung by $28 billion of losses on high-yield, high-risk loans, it's payback time.
Creditors are making borrowers from Carlyle Group's LifeCare Holdings Inc. to casino owner Tropicana Entertainment LLC increase the interest on their debt by an average 0.83 percentage point to change the terms of their loans, the highest price since at least 1997, according to data compiled by Standard & Poor's in New York. The penalties are four times higher than six months ago, S&P said.
A total of 179 North American companies have a high risk of default or may need to change details of their debt agreements, Moody's Investors Service said. Lenders are taking advantage of the distress to recoup losses after the collapse of the subprime mortgage market caused $551 billion of so-called leveraged loans tracked by S&P to fall below 95 cents on the dollar, from 100 cents before June.
There's been a dramatic shift in negotiating leverage from borrowers to debt holders,'' said Scott D'Orsi, who helps manage $1.4 billion in loans as a partner at Boston-based Feingold O'Keeffe Capital.We will see more of this with companies that are susceptible to a slower economy.''
Creditors are also demanding fees of as much as 0.35 percentage point of the value of loans to relax terms, or covenants, such as the minimum ratio of earnings to debt they require or deadlines for reporting quarterly financial results, S&P said. Before June, lenders charged 0.125 percentage point.
A 0.35 percentage point penalty and an increase of 0.83 percentage point in rates would cost a borrower $5.9 million in the first year on a $500 million loan.
..."
"Credit-card delinquencies fell to 4.18 percent from 4.39 percent in the second quarter"
This must be a mistake. DOesn't square with what COF has been reporting and contradicts the wilting MEW story, where refis/HELOCs have been used to reset those CC limits. That's an outlier to be corrected, for sure.
When push comes to shove, governments always take the inflation escape route. Of course when inflation zooms upward, a recession is certain, so inflation only adds fuel to the fire.
"getting squeezed by the greedy corporations by refusing to pay their debts"
I guess borrowers had those debts illegally forcibly added to their statements, right. I mean, no one would be dumb enough to voluntarily take on too much debt.
I will admit the creditors got greedy & have taken far too much risk, and they will pay for doing so, but there has been no shortage of greed and stupidity on either side of these transactions.
odograph, I saw it and I fully expect loss severity to skyrocket ALONG with default/delinquency rates. That's why I expect this report will either be revised or the data point will be a statistical outlier.
I no longer have sympathy for most people with credit card debt. I make less money than most of my friends but I always wait to purchase anything until I have first earned the money. I also manage to go without and save up for larger purchses. One of my friends is in debt but is constantly shopping. She just took a short vacation splurging on massage and facials. She blames her debt on credit card companies "forcing" her to use the cards. Sad thing is, she is 55. I just sent her an article about the economy might suffer a recession. She told me never to send her such negative news again.
Another one of my friends bought a new SUV (took a lona of course) but drove to the food bank to stock up on free food in case we have a recession.
I must be hanging out with the wrong crowd but I really know very few financially responsible people.
See, one should read the Daily Mail.
Otherwise the Financial Times comment does not make sense.
M&A in 2008
The credit binge has ended in a messy, Winehouse-esque stint in rehab. Will the M&A party avoid the same inelegant demise?
Perhaps. But after reaching $4,500bn in 2007, topping the record year posted in 2006, even an orderly and well-mannered slowdown in deal activity relies on certain groups keeping up momentum in 2008.
That is interesting and ominous it seems, as the math there suggests that as the absolute dollar amount of defaults vaults skyward, the default rates are declining - so the total credit card balances outstanding have to be expanding at an even faster rate...I have a difficult time seeing how that can end well going into slowing growth (or at any other time, really).
Nice... Keep it up my fellow americans...we are fed up with the endless war in Iraq, we are fed up with lies, fed up with the obvious tanking of my U.S dollar.. we are fed up with our corrupt government and above all we are fed up..with you FED!!!...the faster we tank this economy the better off we will all be...this is my opinion...don't like it...tuff.
I will admit the creditors got greedy & have taken far too much risk, and they will pay for doing so, but there has been no shortage of greed and stupidity on either side of these transactions.
barely
Although the debt industry got a huge freebie a few years back when the bankrupcy laws were changed. Bankrupcy isn't intended to be a huge giveaway to idiot borrowers, it's SUPPOSED to disencentivize the debt peonage of idiots.
I guess borrowers had those debts illegally forcibly added to their statements, right. I mean, no one would be dumb enough to voluntarily take on too much debt.
Back when people took out those debts, corporations were nice.
"I must be hanging out with the wrong crowd but I really know very few financially responsible people."
You probably are. Most of the people I know are small-time businesspeople, civil servants or retired civil servants (including a lot of teachers), mostly over 50. In the main, they're well-educated and prudent. I don't know their private finances, but they buy new cars at ten-year intervals and don't consume conspiciously, and I never hear them say anything about bills.
But who's to say your "wrong crowd" isn't a lot bigger than mine?
Does anybody here think that this Citi ATM policy is more about managing their cash than hackers? Not easy to hack unless you have actual access to the guts of the ATM itself.Smells fishy to me..
"$3.5B 4Q Derivatives Hits Seen at GSEs
Bloomberg News | Jan 3
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac probably lost more than $3.5B last quarter on derivatives used to hedge against interest rate changes, according to an analyst at FTN Financial."
I wonder if the GSEs will need to tap the till again.
Commerce Department reported that private residential construction fell in November by 2.5 percent to an annual rate of $484.9 billion, down 17.5 percent from a year ago.
The moral of this bullshit is why play by the rules? Nobody else has to? Why live within your means when i could just live like a king and go bankrupt?
Example: I pay $500.00 bucks a month for health insurance yet my insurance company fights every claim including the last which was my son broke his hand and needed a cast. Wouldn't pay? Some fine print bullshit. But it is like that with everything. I am a doctor and see Paco who speaks no english come in and get his hand fixed for nothing! NOTHING! It's on the taxpayer's dime.
From rebates to the oil speculation, just how long does corporate america think this can go on without the consumer faltering?
Specifically, the massive tonnage of debt-backed securities circulating through the financial sector stood revealed for the mostly worthless bales of paper they truly are, and the investment community was left suspended in mid-air, grinning unconvincingly, like Wile E. Coyote thirteen yards beyond the edge of the mesa, with a sputtering grenade in each hand and an anvil tied to his ankles.
Last time I checked, I could withdraw up to $1,000 from a Citi ATM machine. I wouldn't read anything in the fact they are cutting down on how much people can withdraw. I can easily see how this high a limit encourages fraud.
A better signal of disress for banks is almost always to see how much they are willing to pay for CDs. Take a look on bankrate.com for the highest rates and you'll find pretty much a list of which banks whose stocks are currently hitting 52 week lows (and for good reason) - e.g. Countrywide, Corus, Downey
Take a look on bankrate.com for the highest rates and you'll find pretty much a list of which banks whose stocks are currently hitting 52 week lows (and for good reason) - e.g. Countrywide, Corus, Downey
Corus has consistently been at the top of the 1-year CD chart for several years. Countrywide and Downey are new.
What the people that buy high end vehicles need to realize, especially in the case of companies like Ford that have failure prone power trains, and companies like Ford and Chrysler one step away from BK, is that in case of BK there is no warranty liability and the cost of repairs is enormous.
Go long on repo tow trucks?
FHA Reforms
NAR successfully lobbied for the passage of H.R. 1852, the Expanding American Homeownership Act of 2007, which helps modernize FHA by expanding the availability of safe and affordable FHA-backed loans for purchases and refinances. The bill includes provisions to eliminate the 3% down payment requirement, increase loan limits up to 175% of the conforming limit in high-cost areas, streamline condominium purchases, and eliminate the cap on Home Equity Conversion mortgages (HECMs). The Senate Banking Committee passed a similar bill. The Senate bill is expected on the floor by the end of the year.
Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae Reform
NAR also successfully lobbied for passage of H.R. 1427, the Federal Housing Financing Reform Act of 2007, which overhauls the regulatory structure of the nations housing finance government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs). H.R. 1427 provides for regional adjustments to the caps on mortgages the GSEs may buy for high-cost areas, helping more working families qualify for safer GSE loans. The House passed H.R. 1427, 313-104. The Senate has taken no action to date.
What are everybody's thoughts on the BLS number tomorrow?
Historically, it looks like the ADP number has had very little bearing on the actual number, so not very helpful (even accounting for the addition of gov). Based on the 2007 numbers so far, and assuming that the BLS # comes in higher than the ADP #, I would guess 58k new jobs on the low end and 74k new jobs on the high end. Big range, so my official estimate is 60k.
That said, there is a strong possibility that it comes in hot given certain interests in propping that number up.
If you read the Bloomberg article, it's not just Buffets it trouble, but Rite Aid and Bon Ton's as well (a veritable who's who of crappy retailers). I think we need a retailer death pool for the coming shakeout. My pick: Radio Shack.
1) They sell the same stuff as Best Buy, but for more money and in run down strip malls. 2) Years ago, they sold electronics gear to hobbyists/professionals. That business has entirely migrated to Internet suppliers. 3) They screwed me on a cell phone once.
I nominate Borders Books for the Deathpool. It really is a crappy excuse for a bookstore, big though it may be.
As far as I can tell, they're not making huge money; they're expanding by borrowing. And they're all in saturated markets; usually there's a Barnes and Noble within a mile.
I looked at the Amer. Banker Assoc. delinquency history, specifically, at the numbers from the last two recessions: Jul. '90-Mar. '91 and Mar.-Nov. '01.
All of Ryan's Buffet places closed down here in Columbus, Ohio.
They closed about a week before Thanksgiving.
That was about five stores worth of staff.
They had just started a weekend breakfast that my wife and I liked to eat. But even then I could tell the traffic wasn't going to do it for them with the amount of food and staff they had on hand at the time.
Very sad really that one of the places that we liked to go to on a regular place close down.
The House Takes Initiative
Last month, the House overwhelmingly passed FHA reform bill HR 1852 (The Expanding American Homeownership Act of 2007). The next step is the Senate where a vote is expected within the next few months.
As the bill stands now, there are a number of significant changes that could dramatically impact home lending, including making FHA loan limits as high as $729,750 in high-cost areas, such as California and Florida. It's uncertain if the Bush administration will support the bill in its current form, but it has several features that could easily reshape FHA lending as we know it.
YOU Magazine turned to FHA expert Jeff Mifsud to highlight what this legislation could mean for borrowers in the future if this initiative is to pass in its current state:
Lower Down Payments: Authorizes zero and lower down-payment loans for borrowers who can afford mortgage payments but lack the cash for a required down payment. (In fact, options are now available which may help to expand or stabilize certain programs for those who have little to no cash.)
Subprime Borrowers: Directs FHA to provide mortgage loans to higher risk (but qualified) borrowers without authorizing unnecessary fee hikes on such borrowers.
Reverse Mortgages: Enhances the FHA reverse mortgage loan program to help seniors pay for health and other expenses by removing the loan cap to avoid program shutdowns, raising loan limits, and reducing the maximum fee lenders can charge for these loans.
Multifamily Loans: Raises FHA multifamily loan limits so these loans can fully fund construction costs in high-cost areas, and enhances sale of foreclosed FHA rental housing loans to localities so that affordable housing can be maintained in local communities.
Higher Loan Limits: Raises the FHA loan limit in each area to the lower of (a) 125% of the local area median home price or (b) 175% of the national conforming loan limit.
Bill Number: HR 1852
Issues: Budget, Spending and Taxes, Business and Consumers, Housing and Property Issues
Date: 09/18/2007
Sponsor: Rep. Waters, Maxine (D-CA)
On Sept. 18, the House, by a bipartisan 348-72 vote, approved the Expanding American Homeownership Act of 2007 (H.R. 1852), which would create 40-year FHA-insured mortgages, institute risk-based premiums, allow zero down payments for first-time borrowers and lift the cap on Home Equity Conversion Mortgages (HECMs).
Does that amaze anyone, no equity in homes, just 40 year loans with zero down???
Come on people, anyone out there???
DH
Re: On Sept. 18, the House, by a bipartisan 348-72 vote, approved the Expanding American Homeownership Act of 2007 (H.R. 1852), which would create 40-year FHA-insured mortgages, institute risk-based premiums, allow zero down payments for first-time borrowers and lift the cap on Home Equity Conversion Mortgages (HECMs).
Why not 50 year and 10 free years and a vacation home tossed in? Easy payments ehh!
No one will own homes again, what a geat law zipping into The Senate......LOL!
In America's ideal of freedom, citizens find the dignity and security of economic independence, instead of laboring on the edge of subsistence. This is the broader definition of liberty that motivated the Homestead Act, the Social Security Act, and the G.I. Bill of Rights. And now we will extend this vision by reforming great institutions to serve the needs of our time. To give every American a stake in the promise and future of our country, we will bring the highest standards to our schools, and build an ownership society. We will widen the ownership of homes and businesses, retirement savings and health insurance - preparing our people for the challenges of life in a free society. By making every citizen an agent of his or her own destiny, we will give our fellow Americans greater freedom from want and fear, and make our society more prosperous and just and equal.
I believe that that credit card delinquencies percentage is the number of cards that are delinquent, not the share of the outstanding balance that is delinquent. What i believe has happened is that credit card delinquency has become more punitive so you get fewer people who are delinquent because of bad bookkeeping and what you are left are more the people who are delinquent because of money problems. This also explains the greater amount per delinquent credit card
OT, but has anyone compared the losses from the current crunch to those from the S&L meltdown in the 80's? Bigger or smaller? TIA
Haven't done that, but LTCM cost $3.8 billion to bail out. peanuts.
what's bogus about the delinquency rate number being reported vs. the last recession, is that it's not comparing apples to apples. if you plow thru enough 10k's you come to realize that the most banks have widened out the late-payment window before they declare a loan delinquent. My best guesstimate is that the real delinquency rate is probably double what's being reported
WSJ Commentary
Transparency and the Fed /by: Henry Kaufman (very good early 2008 article on Fed transparency and what is sorely lacking in banks)
Transparency and the Fed - WSJ.com
If John Edwards' message keeps catching, some middle-class people may decide to avoid getting squeezed by the greedy corporations by refusing to pay their debts.
Maybe this is about more than the inability to repay money.
Maybe this is the Des Moines Tea Party.
--
There WAS and STILL IS only one game in town for America's ruling Crooks -- to keep pushing debt on households (sometimes indirectly with the Federal govt. tax cuts and deficit spending). When they can't the game will end.
The outcome of the game? The Greater Depression.
Born-and-bred dopes don't understand the simple four-letter word debt and its consequences. They will learn it the hard way. In the brainwashing (propaganda) department Americas ruling Crooks put Nazis to shame.
What is NYC Bankrupters' main goal? To bankrupt as many households as possible! And with OPM!!
Jas
OT: "Citibank limits ATM cash in city"
Citibank limits ATM cash in city
.
OT - Bloomberg article stating Creditors seem to be back in the driver's seat on loan terms and rates judging from rate increases in loan modifications.
Leveraged Loans Lose $28 Billion; Carlyle Is Punished (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
"Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- For investors stung by $28 billion of losses on high-yield, high-risk loans, it's payback time.
Creditors are making borrowers from Carlyle Group's LifeCare Holdings Inc. to casino owner Tropicana Entertainment LLC increase the interest on their debt by an average 0.83 percentage point to change the terms of their loans, the highest price since at least 1997, according to data compiled by Standard & Poor's in New York. The penalties are four times higher than six months ago, S&P said.
A total of 179 North American companies have a high risk of default or may need to change details of their debt agreements, Moody's Investors Service said. Lenders are taking advantage of the distress to recoup losses after the collapse of the subprime mortgage market caused $551 billion of so-called leveraged loans tracked by S&P to fall below 95 cents on the dollar, from 100 cents before June.
There's been a dramatic shift in negotiating leverage from borrowers to debt holders,'' said Scott D'Orsi, who helps manage $1.4 billion in loans as a partner at Boston-based Feingold O'Keeffe Capital.We will see more of this with companies that are susceptible to a slower economy.''
Creditors are also demanding fees of as much as 0.35 percentage point of the value of loans to relax terms, or covenants, such as the minimum ratio of earnings to debt they require or deadlines for reporting quarterly financial results, S&P said. Before June, lenders charged 0.125 percentage point.
A 0.35 percentage point penalty and an increase of 0.83 percentage point in rates would cost a borrower $5.9 million in the first year on a $500 million loan.
..."
"Credit-card delinquencies fell to 4.18 percent from 4.39 percent in the second quarter"
This must be a mistake. DOesn't square with what COF has been reporting and contradicts the wilting MEW story, where refis/HELOCs have been used to reset those CC limits. That's an outlier to be corrected, for sure.
Bernanke, King Risk Inflation to Extend Growth Party (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
When push comes to shove, governments always take the inflation escape route. Of course when inflation zooms upward, a recession is certain, so inflation only adds fuel to the fire.
FDIC Supervisory Insights (no joke)
Winter 2007 Vol.4, Issue 2 - Table of Contents
FDIC: Supervisory Insights
Average price of homes in Manhattan up 34%!!!! (from CNBC)
How am I ever going to find a place to live in NY.
I'm trying to find the report and link.
Will NY prices ever go down. It's CRAZY unaffordable
"getting squeezed by the greedy corporations by refusing to pay their debts"
I guess borrowers had those debts illegally forcibly added to their statements, right. I mean, no one would be dumb enough to voluntarily take on too much debt.
I will admit the creditors got greedy & have taken far too much risk, and they will pay for doing so, but there has been no shortage of greed and stupidity on either side of these transactions.
See my link in the car thread, credit card delinquency rates may have fallen, but dollar value has increased (exploded?)
odograph, I saw it and I fully expect loss severity to skyrocket ALONG with default/delinquency rates. That's why I expect this report will either be revised or the data point will be a statistical outlier.
I no longer have sympathy for most people with credit card debt. I make less money than most of my friends but I always wait to purchase anything until I have first earned the money. I also manage to go without and save up for larger purchses. One of my friends is in debt but is constantly shopping. She just took a short vacation splurging on massage and facials. She blames her debt on credit card companies "forcing" her to use the cards. Sad thing is, she is 55. I just sent her an article about the economy might suffer a recession. She told me never to send her such negative news again.
Another one of my friends bought a new SUV (took a lona of course) but drove to the food bank to stock up on free food in case we have a recession.
I must be hanging out with the wrong crowd but I really know very few financially responsible people.
FDIC makes public October 2007 Bank Enforcement Actions (includes C&Ds)
FDIC: Enforcement Decisions and Orders - Recent Orders and Decisions
See, one should read the Daily Mail.
Otherwise the Financial Times comment does not make sense.
M&A in 2008
The credit binge has ended in a messy, Winehouse-esque stint in rehab. Will the M&A party avoid the same inelegant demise?
Perhaps. But after reaching $4,500bn in 2007, topping the record year posted in 2006, even an orderly and well-mannered slowdown in deal activity relies on certain groups keeping up momentum in 2008.
odo,
That is interesting and ominous it seems, as the math there suggests that as the absolute dollar amount of defaults vaults skyward, the default rates are declining - so the total credit card balances outstanding have to be expanding at an even faster rate...I have a difficult time seeing how that can end well going into slowing growth (or at any other time, really).
Nice... Keep it up my fellow americans...we are fed up with the endless war in Iraq, we are fed up with lies, fed up with the obvious tanking of my U.S dollar.. we are fed up with our corrupt government and above all we are fed up..with you FED!!!...the faster we tank this economy the better off we will all be...this is my opinion...don't like it...tuff.
I will admit the creditors got greedy & have taken far too much risk, and they will pay for doing so, but there has been no shortage of greed and stupidity on either side of these transactions.
barely
Although the debt industry got a huge freebie a few years back when the bankrupcy laws were changed. Bankrupcy isn't intended to be a huge giveaway to idiot borrowers, it's SUPPOSED to disencentivize the debt peonage of idiots.
Back when people took out those debts, corporations were nice.
Now, they are greedy. Big difference.
debtfree, in a just world your friends would be thrown in a sack and drowned in the river.
"I must be hanging out with the wrong crowd but I really know very few financially responsible people."
You probably are. Most of the people I know are small-time businesspeople, civil servants or retired civil servants (including a lot of teachers), mostly over 50. In the main, they're well-educated and prudent. I don't know their private finances, but they buy new cars at ten-year intervals and don't consume conspiciously, and I never hear them say anything about bills.
But who's to say your "wrong crowd" isn't a lot bigger than mine?
Does anybody here think that this Citi ATM policy is more about managing their cash than hackers? Not easy to hack unless you have actual access to the guts of the ATM itself.Smells fishy to me..
Additional follow-up:
GM U.S. December vehicle sales down 5.2 percent
Reuters report.
Regards,
Ok...
Make that GM, Ford, and Toyota
GM, Ford, Toyota December Sales Fall; Honda's Rise
OT
Now you are starting to see how yen carry propped up speculative equity markets.
Yen carry is unwinding and speculative equities are falling faster than the market as a whole.
This dip may or may not continue, but eventually it will all unwind.
"$3.5B 4Q Derivatives Hits Seen at GSEs
Bloomberg News | Jan 3
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac probably lost more than $3.5B last quarter on derivatives used to hedge against interest rate changes, according to an analyst at FTN Financial."
I wonder if the GSEs will need to tap the till again.
Wow, this still is intense:
Commerce Department reported that private residential construction fell in November by 2.5 percent to an annual rate of $484.9 billion, down 17.5 percent from a year ago.
DH
Cal,
I need to steal that and take it back a few stories, to where Im bitching about Fannie....
The moral of this bullshit is why play by the rules? Nobody else has to? Why live within your means when i could just live like a king and go bankrupt?
Example: I pay $500.00 bucks a month for health insurance yet my insurance company fights every claim including the last which was my son broke his hand and needed a cast. Wouldn't pay? Some fine print bullshit. But it is like that with everything. I am a doctor and see Paco who speaks no english come in and get his hand fixed for nothing! NOTHING! It's on the taxpayer's dime.
From rebates to the oil speculation, just how long does corporate america think this can go on without the consumer faltering?
Sounds good to me.
Anon, it was on AmericanBanker.com, I dont have anymore info than that.
From Kunstler's latest on what 2008 holds:
Specifically, the massive tonnage of debt-backed securities circulating through the financial sector stood revealed for the mostly worthless bales of paper they truly are, and the investment community was left suspended in mid-air, grinning unconvincingly, like Wile E. Coyote thirteen yards beyond the edge of the mesa, with a sputtering grenade in each hand and an anvil tied to his ankles.
Link:
Clusterfuck Nation by Jim Kunstler : Forecast for 2008
Last time I checked, I could withdraw up to $1,000 from a Citi ATM machine. I wouldn't read anything in the fact they are cutting down on how much people can withdraw. I can easily see how this high a limit encourages fraud.
A better signal of disress for banks is almost always to see how much they are willing to pay for CDs. Take a look on bankrate.com for the highest rates and you'll find pretty much a list of which banks whose stocks are currently hitting 52 week lows (and for good reason) - e.g. Countrywide, Corus, Downey
Corus has consistently been at the top of the 1-year CD chart for several years. Countrywide and Downey are new.
What the people that buy high end vehicles need to realize, especially in the case of companies like Ford that have failure prone power trains, and companies like Ford and Chrysler one step away from BK, is that in case of BK there is no warranty liability and the cost of repairs is enormous.
Go long on repo tow trucks?
Jas, who are you and what have you done with the real Jas Jain?
Must fight.. urge to.. agree with him..
ABX heading south again.
ABX heading south again.
everybody was on vacation when the remits came out.
It begins...
Buffets Misses Coupon Payment; Bonds Fall to New Low (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Wake the hell up out there!!!
FHA Reforms
NAR successfully lobbied for the passage of H.R. 1852, the Expanding American Homeownership Act of 2007, which helps modernize FHA by expanding the availability of safe and affordable FHA-backed loans for purchases and refinances. The bill includes provisions to eliminate the 3% down payment requirement, increase loan limits up to 175% of the conforming limit in high-cost areas, streamline condominium purchases, and eliminate the cap on Home Equity Conversion mortgages (HECMs). The Senate Banking Committee passed a similar bill. The Senate bill is expected on the floor by the end of the year.
Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae Reform
NAR also successfully lobbied for passage of H.R. 1427, the Federal Housing Financing Reform Act of 2007, which overhauls the regulatory structure of the nations housing finance government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs). H.R. 1427 provides for regional adjustments to the caps on mortgages the GSEs may buy for high-cost areas, helping more working families qualify for safer GSE loans. The House passed H.R. 1427, 313-104. The Senate has taken no action to date.
Buffets in trouble ----> exurbia in death throes.
What are everybody's thoughts on the BLS number tomorrow?
Historically, it looks like the ADP number has had very little bearing on the actual number, so not very helpful (even accounting for the addition of gov). Based on the 2007 numbers so far, and assuming that the BLS # comes in higher than the ADP #, I would guess 58k new jobs on the low end and 74k new jobs on the high end. Big range, so my official estimate is 60k.
That said, there is a strong possibility that it comes in hot given certain interests in propping that number up.
If you read the Bloomberg article, it's not just Buffets it trouble, but Rite Aid and Bon Ton's as well (a veritable who's who of crappy retailers). I think we need a retailer death pool for the coming shakeout. My pick: Radio Shack.
1) They sell the same stuff as Best Buy, but for more money and in run down strip malls. 2) Years ago, they sold electronics gear to hobbyists/professionals. That business has entirely migrated to Internet suppliers. 3) They screwed me on a cell phone once.
Ha! I predicted the death of Radio Shack ten years ago. Since then, I've changed my opinion. Radio Shack, like the cockroach, can never be eradicated.
I nominate Borders Books for the Deathpool. It really is a crappy excuse for a bookstore, big though it may be.
As far as I can tell, they're not making huge money; they're expanding by borrowing. And they're all in saturated markets; usually there's a Barnes and Noble within a mile.
Circuit City. They've been in "managed deflation" mode for years now.
Borders store in Berkeley closed about nine months ago. Into the space moved...a bookstore.
I looked at the Amer. Banker Assoc. delinquency history, specifically, at the numbers from the last two recessions: Jul. '90-Mar. '91 and Mar.-Nov. '01.
http://www.aba.com/aba/documents/press/Dbullcharts/DBullCharts3rdQtr07.pdf
ABA reports delinquencies in five categories, and one composite. The latest figures are from Q3 07.
As of Q3 07, deliquencies were higher than those seen in the '90-'91 and '01 recessions for three of the five categories.
Good thing we weren't close to being in recession in Q3 07 (guffaw; we started our recession in Oct. '07).
I'm not as good a credit analyst as Robyn, but I think we have a credit delinquency problem.
All of Ryan's Buffet places closed down here in Columbus, Ohio.
They closed about a week before Thanksgiving.
That was about five stores worth of staff.
They had just started a weekend breakfast that my wife and I liked to eat. But even then I could tell the traffic wasn't going to do it for them with the amount of food and staff they had on hand at the time.
Very sad really that one of the places that we liked to go to on a regular place close down.
The House Takes Initiative
Last month, the House overwhelmingly passed FHA reform bill HR 1852 (The Expanding American Homeownership Act of 2007). The next step is the Senate where a vote is expected within the next few months.
As the bill stands now, there are a number of significant changes that could dramatically impact home lending, including making FHA loan limits as high as $729,750 in high-cost areas, such as California and Florida. It's uncertain if the Bush administration will support the bill in its current form, but it has several features that could easily reshape FHA lending as we know it.
YOU Magazine turned to FHA expert Jeff Mifsud to highlight what this legislation could mean for borrowers in the future if this initiative is to pass in its current state:
Lower Down Payments: Authorizes zero and lower down-payment loans for borrowers who can afford mortgage payments but lack the cash for a required down payment. (In fact, options are now available which may help to expand or stabilize certain programs for those who have little to no cash.)
Subprime Borrowers: Directs FHA to provide mortgage loans to higher risk (but qualified) borrowers without authorizing unnecessary fee hikes on such borrowers.
Reverse Mortgages: Enhances the FHA reverse mortgage loan program to help seniors pay for health and other expenses by removing the loan cap to avoid program shutdowns, raising loan limits, and reducing the maximum fee lenders can charge for these loans.
Multifamily Loans: Raises FHA multifamily loan limits so these loans can fully fund construction costs in high-cost areas, and enhances sale of foreclosed FHA rental housing loans to localities so that affordable housing can be maintained in local communities.
Higher Loan Limits: Raises the FHA loan limit in each area to the lower of (a) 125% of the local area median home price or (b) 175% of the national conforming loan limit.
Even CEO Can't Figure Out How RadioShack Still In Business
H.R. 1852 [110th] - Summary: Expanding American Homeownership Act of 2007 (GovTrack.us)
Who is voting for this?
Expanding American Homeownership Act of 2007
Bill Number: HR 1852
Issues: Budget, Spending and Taxes, Business and Consumers, Housing and Property Issues
Date: 09/18/2007
Sponsor: Rep. Waters, Maxine (D-CA)
Project Vote Smart - HR 1852 Expanding American Homeownership Act of 2007 Member Vote List
This reminds me a lot of The Pension Reform Act, which is a 1000 page doc, which no one read; these retarded people are fools!
Zero % Loans...Go baby Go!!
On Sept. 18, the House, by a bipartisan 348-72 vote, approved the Expanding American Homeownership Act of 2007 (H.R. 1852), which would create 40-year FHA-insured mortgages, institute risk-based premiums, allow zero down payments for first-time borrowers and lift the cap on Home Equity Conversion Mortgages (HECMs).
Does that amaze anyone, no equity in homes, just 40 year loans with zero down???
Come on people, anyone out there???
DH
Re: On Sept. 18, the House, by a bipartisan 348-72 vote, approved the Expanding American Homeownership Act of 2007 (H.R. 1852), which would create 40-year FHA-insured mortgages, institute risk-based premiums, allow zero down payments for first-time borrowers and lift the cap on Home Equity Conversion Mortgages (HECMs).
Why not 50 year and 10 free years and a vacation home tossed in? Easy payments ehh!
No one will own homes again, what a geat law zipping into The Senate......LOL!
In America's ideal of freedom, citizens find the dignity and security of economic independence, instead of laboring on the edge of subsistence. This is the broader definition of liberty that motivated the Homestead Act, the Social Security Act, and the G.I. Bill of Rights. And now we will extend this vision by reforming great institutions to serve the needs of our time. To give every American a stake in the promise and future of our country, we will bring the highest standards to our schools, and build an ownership society. We will widen the ownership of homes and businesses, retirement savings and health insurance - preparing our people for the challenges of life in a free society. By making every citizen an agent of his or her own destiny, we will give our fellow Americans greater freedom from want and fear, and make our society more prosperous and just and equal.
President Barack Obama's Inaugural Address | The White House
DH
Rental Society Linked To Asset-Backed Debt
barely
I believe that that credit card delinquencies percentage is the number of cards that are delinquent, not the share of the outstanding balance that is delinquent. What i believe has happened is that credit card delinquency has become more punitive so you get fewer people who are delinquent because of bad bookkeeping and what you are left are more the people who are delinquent because of money problems. This also explains the greater amount per delinquent credit card