Thanks - for both pure digits and pdf-ed same! Can't wait for the weekly rock-opera vlogging that is the obvious next great step in the coming empire. Or will the Haiku/poetry volume come first?
Thanks for the preview. I'll be signing up at some point. Want to keep those consumer credit numbers high.
OT - earlier today CR posted this "Clearly Plosser opposes further rate cuts."
Now, I'm never sure if CR is employing some dry humor or not but i believe that was supposed to be taken at face value. I just ran across this on CNN
Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, speaking Tuesday morning, said that policy decisions are getting harder to make because inflationary pressures are rising and slow economic growth is no longer sufficient to take the edge off pricing pressures. However, he said he wouldn't be opposed to more cuts.
It seems the only thing clear is that it will be "harder" for them to chop 50bps. But they will be chopping away. Being a fed prez is "hard work".
I am not as interested in RE as in the financials, but I may sign up just as a way of thanking you for your blog. I have made an absolute killing in the last 8 months, and your news and analysis were vital to my trading.
BTW, one little-discussed effect of essentially no/negative equity on homeowners is that of immobility, which in various studies has shown to have a substantial impact on the overall economy. IOW, when people can't move, skills are not reallocated efficiently among businesses around the country.
To make a nitpick on the newsletter (and it wouldn't be the intertubes without nitpicks) it isn't just pristine credit borrowers who can get in without downpayments. FHA and VA allow people with middling credit scores to buy without downpayments, but buyers would need documented income and payment to income ratios that aren't nuts.
IMO, odds are now good that we're in position for a 1200-point retracement in the Dow.
mp | 01.07.08 - 4:55 pm |
It looks like we're going 1200 points back in time.
mp | 01.07.08 - 5:10 pm |
retracement up or down?
jus askin | 01.07.08 - 5:15 pm |
Retracement DOWN. If there is any-repeat, any-bad economic or exogenous event news this week, that news could easily trigger a major sell-off.
mp | 01.07.08 - 5:19 pm |
jg, keep in mind that I pal around with a hairy, two-foot tall, cigar smoker created in 1299, so might not be the best source of market or economic counsel.
Having said that, IMO, we've now got a set-up for a major correction in a market that HAS NOT priced-in a recession.
mp | 01.07.08 - 5:40 pm |
Today, the gastroenterologist said "clear liquid diet," so Conjure and I are going to party tonight.
Even though I prefer to deal in the virtual stuff and not real estate, except to live in, since I was going to hit the tip jar anyway I signed on instead. You guys are cannibalizing your own revenue stream mannn - find a way to protect and enhance that tip jar stream
Still reading the very first edition of the newsletter - content comment later - but it IS exciting to see you guys start your new venture - reminds me of.. well I'll leave that for another time - this is YOUR day in the sun.
From content point of view it looks excellent! Super first issue. A couple of comments / suggestions:
Copyright 2008, CR4RE LLC (?)
Do you not need some kind of disclaimer. I am not a lawyer so maybe someone else would care to draft but something along the line of: "Opinions, estimates, projections and forecasts contained in this newsletter are solely those of CR and Tanta and are subject to change without notice. CR and Tanta make every effort to ensure the information has been derived from reliable and accurate sources; however, neither CR nor Tanta assume responsibility for losses or damages resulting from the use of this information. This publication is intended for private informational and educational purposes and is not an endorsement for any service, security, product or fund. Do your own due diligence. Caveat emptor."
You can also reasonably request that permission be sought before anyone uses the material..."No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of CR and Tanta, which may be obtained by emailing the authors."
I would also add the web address of your blog.
And maybe add some colour and design.
Maybe the picture of the path. Bacon dreamz has done some art for you in the past - I think it was a picture of a shark.
Finally, maybe a picture of Conjure, who Im guessing looks a lot like Elmo, only he would be a darker, more menacing colour and have round spectacles and fat cigar dangling from the corner of his mouth.
Awesome debut! I said to myself (jokingly) as I opened the file: "I'm not subscribing unless Mortgage Pig(tm) shows up in the first issue."
Sure enough ... there she is in all her glory, on Page 8!
One humble pointer (from someone with a background in this type of communications), if I may: Picking one grammatical person and sticking with it will greatly improve the "flow" for the reader. You sign the newsletter "CR and Tanta", yet there's a lot of switching between "we/our" and "I/my" throughout, which is confusing at best. I'd just stick with "we" - unless you need to work in personal anecdotes, for which you can use something like "I (Tanta) ...".
Perhaps a one- or two-paragraph conclusion / summary of things at the end, in the style of John Mauldin, might be useful as well. (Okay, that's two pointers.)
In general, though ... great data and great analysis, just what I've come to expect from this blog. You've set a high bar!
sterlingirl, thanks for the good comments. I will only observe that at least one of us (to get to Mook's point later) is going through a minimalist period in re design. Possibly it's a backlash; I never know if I'm avant-garde or derriere-garde. I just know that I spend too much time reading very visually busy websites, and my own characteristic preference for visual simplicity becomes a fetish.
(I once spent hours with a very nice salesperson at a furniture store agonizing over upholstery patterns. I couldn't decide between the ivory on winter white or the beige on ecru. Poor salesperson kept trying to interest me in this thing called "color." Gently, she says, you realize your living room is going to end up looking like a bowl of oatmeal if you're not careful.)
Besides that, I do have some concern about file size. We loaded this baby up with charts, which are actually useful. Throwing in more images just for pretty would create a very big file. I'm also trying to think about the people who want this exactly because it's printable, and I'm such a cheapskate about color printing myself. For $60 a pop we're not thinking that our typical subscriber will work for a fat company and have access to a photo-quality printer that he or she doesn't pay for.
Mook, you're quite right that we never really solved the pronoun problem. I did think about it when we were putting this together, but I just decided that something more comfortable would develop naturally, as we move from the blog format to the newsletter format.
There almost wasn't a pig, until it occurred to me someone might well think exactly what you thought. I'm not proud; I'll pander to that.
One believes a PDF is simply a printed document in digital format and so lays out the PDF in columns, assuming, perhaps, that all readers will first print and then read.
The second group sees the PDF as a digital document and lays it out as such. They understand that the work will be read directly on a computer. To them columns are verboten.
Trying to read columnar layout on computer is annoying. Mouse scroll keys don't work very well - if at all - and trying run the cursor up to the top of a page - but not past it (!) is more than the reader needs to complicate the reading process.
Please move to page-wide paragraphs and put digital columns to rest.
Check is in the mail. Really.
Thanks - for both pure digits and pdf-ed same! Can't wait for the weekly rock-opera vlogging that is the obvious next great step in the coming empire. Or will the Haiku/poetry volume come first?
Thanks for pushing out the first pay-for issue to Feb. As always classy....
Thanks for the preview. I'll be signing up at some point. Want to keep those consumer credit numbers high.
OT - earlier today CR posted this "Clearly Plosser opposes further rate cuts."
Now, I'm never sure if CR is employing some dry humor or not but i believe that was supposed to be taken at face value. I just ran across this on CNN
Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, speaking Tuesday morning, said that policy decisions are getting harder to make because inflationary pressures are rising and slow economic growth is no longer sufficient to take the edge off pricing pressures. However, he said he wouldn't be opposed to more cuts.
It seems the only thing clear is that it will be "harder" for them to chop 50bps. But they will be chopping away. Being a fed prez is "hard work".
I am not as interested in RE as in the financials, but I may sign up just as a way of thanking you for your blog. I have made an absolute killing in the last 8 months, and your news and analysis were vital to my trading.
Or, I may just send another tip.
Thank's so much!
Will my poems get published in it?
Very nicely done!
BTW, one little-discussed effect of essentially no/negative equity on homeowners is that of immobility, which in various studies has shown to have a substantial impact on the overall economy. IOW, when people can't move, skills are not reallocated efficiently among businesses around the country.
To make a nitpick on the newsletter (and it wouldn't be the intertubes without nitpicks) it isn't just pristine credit borrowers who can get in without downpayments. FHA and VA allow people with middling credit scores to buy without downpayments, but buyers would need documented income and payment to income ratios that aren't nuts.
the question on the market: how low will we go? I'm super long term, still in my late 20s, so big dips are buying opportunities for me
I remember that time back in, what was '02. The DJIA was under 8K for a couple of days. Will it go that far?
CR,
Thanks for the sample.
mort_fin, that's what I get for trying to write something "crisp." So I don't think you'll have to worry about it happening very often . . .
I'm thinking the overpriced Indian markets are the next to get hit. Do you think techs will be the first once to get hit in India?
Bear Stearns Names Schwartz CEO, Succeeding James East Cayne
IMO, odds are now good that we're in position for a 1200-point retracement in the Dow.
mp | 01.07.08 - 4:55 pm |
It looks like we're going 1200 points back in time.
mp | 01.07.08 - 5:10 pm |
retracement up or down?
jus askin | 01.07.08 - 5:15 pm |
Retracement DOWN. If there is any-repeat, any-bad economic or exogenous event news this week, that news could easily trigger a major sell-off.
mp | 01.07.08 - 5:19 pm |
jg, keep in mind that I pal around with a hairy, two-foot tall, cigar smoker created in 1299, so might not be the best source of market or economic counsel.
Having said that, IMO, we've now got a set-up for a major correction in a market that HAS NOT priced-in a recession.
mp | 01.07.08 - 5:40 pm |
Today, the gastroenterologist said "clear liquid diet," so Conjure and I are going to party tonight.
Clean Sweep! Conjure is pleased.
CR, Nicely done. I like it, and I'm interested to see your future forecasts. I'll be honored to sign up.
You deserve more than $60/yr for this stuff.
Conjure, is that gloating I detect?
This is my thank you for the site; to reinforce what an earlier blogger wrote, you folks - as well as others - have been phenomenally educational.
by the way, since I try to control debt, the check is in the mail - and no, I don't work for the gub'mint.
Does anyone remember the "new yorker" cartoon showing two russians putting a czech in the mail?
I'll be the party pooper.
That is one sanitized POS. Where's the real facts?
Didn't you forget the dedications to the Queen, the Tan-Man, the Prime Minister of New Zealand, and the King of Spain?
If this is "professionalism", I'll take the pigs over the Mortgage Pig(TM).
Even though I prefer to deal in the virtual stuff and not real estate, except to live in, since I was going to hit the tip jar anyway I signed on instead. You guys are cannibalizing your own revenue stream mannn - find a way to protect and enhance that tip jar stream
Still reading the very first edition of the newsletter - content comment later - but it IS exciting to see you guys start your new venture - reminds me of.. well I'll leave that for another time - this is YOUR day in the sun.
Good luck.
-Shantanu (not an accidental signoff)
Will you take Canadian check?
From content point of view it looks excellent! Super first issue. A couple of comments / suggestions:
Copyright 2008, CR4RE LLC (?)
Do you not need some kind of disclaimer. I am not a lawyer so maybe someone else would care to draft but something along the line of: "Opinions, estimates, projections and forecasts contained in this newsletter are solely those of CR and Tanta and are subject to change without notice. CR and Tanta make every effort to ensure the information has been derived from reliable and accurate sources; however, neither CR nor Tanta assume responsibility for losses or damages resulting from the use of this information. This publication is intended for private informational and educational purposes and is not an endorsement for any service, security, product or fund. Do your own due diligence. Caveat emptor."
You can also reasonably request that permission be sought before anyone uses the material..."No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of CR and Tanta, which may be obtained by emailing the authors."
I would also add the web address of your blog.
And maybe add some colour and design.
Maybe the picture of the path. Bacon dreamz has done some art for you in the past - I think it was a picture of a shark.
Finally, maybe a picture of Conjure, who Im guessing looks a lot like Elmo, only he would be a darker, more menacing colour and have round spectacles and fat cigar dangling from the corner of his mouth.
Awesome debut! I said to myself (jokingly) as I opened the file: "I'm not subscribing unless Mortgage Pig(tm) shows up in the first issue."
Sure enough ... there she is in all her glory, on Page 8!
One humble pointer (from someone with a background in this type of communications), if I may: Picking one grammatical person and sticking with it will greatly improve the "flow" for the reader. You sign the newsletter "CR and Tanta", yet there's a lot of switching between "we/our" and "I/my" throughout, which is confusing at best. I'd just stick with "we" - unless you need to work in personal anecdotes, for which you can use something like "I (Tanta) ...".
Perhaps a one- or two-paragraph conclusion / summary of things at the end, in the style of John Mauldin, might be useful as well. (Okay, that's two pointers.)
In general, though ... great data and great analysis, just what I've come to expect from this blog. You've set a high bar!
And maybe add some colour and design.
sterlingirl, thanks for the good comments. I will only observe that at least one of us (to get to Mook's point later) is going through a minimalist period in re design. Possibly it's a backlash; I never know if I'm avant-garde or derriere-garde. I just know that I spend too much time reading very visually busy websites, and my own characteristic preference for visual simplicity becomes a fetish.
(I once spent hours with a very nice salesperson at a furniture store agonizing over upholstery patterns. I couldn't decide between the ivory on winter white or the beige on ecru. Poor salesperson kept trying to interest me in this thing called "color." Gently, she says, you realize your living room is going to end up looking like a bowl of oatmeal if you're not careful.)
Besides that, I do have some concern about file size. We loaded this baby up with charts, which are actually useful. Throwing in more images just for pretty would create a very big file. I'm also trying to think about the people who want this exactly because it's printable, and I'm such a cheapskate about color printing myself. For $60 a pop we're not thinking that our typical subscriber will work for a fat company and have access to a photo-quality printer that he or she doesn't pay for.
Mook, you're quite right that we never really solved the pronoun problem. I did think about it when we were putting this together, but I just decided that something more comfortable would develop naturally, as we move from the blog format to the newsletter format.
There almost wasn't a pig, until it occurred to me someone might well think exactly what you thought. I'm not proud; I'll pander to that.
There are two camps in the PDF publishing field.
One believes a PDF is simply a printed document in digital format and so lays out the PDF in columns, assuming, perhaps, that all readers will first print and then read.
The second group sees the PDF as a digital document and lays it out as such. They understand that the work will be read directly on a computer. To them columns are verboten.
Trying to read columnar layout on computer is annoying. Mouse scroll keys don't work very well - if at all - and trying run the cursor up to the top of a page - but not past it (!) is more than the reader needs to complicate the reading process.
Please move to page-wide paragraphs and put digital columns to rest.