Thorn-in-your-side-burg. First.

Is the only way to see comments to post something?

Hey, we are losing money, so who wants to invest? LOL!
SANTA FE, N.M., Jan 09, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Thornburg Mortgage, Inc. (NYSE: TMA: 8.78, -0.53, -5.69%), announced today that it is commencing two concurrent public offerings to raise approximately $200 million in additional long-term capital.

Bob, no there is some kind of delay on the server side, just give it a minute, and make sure you are viewing from within the blog (not on bloglines, or another blog aggregator).

Oof, comments are officially broken now.

it never stops amazing me at just how many investors are "trapped" in their asset backed investments. why anyone in their right mind would ever trust any of these funds ever again would be astounding. the number one rule in investments is liquidity defined as being able to get in and out quickly on a fairly tight spread.

i guess i have to throw in the Fla LGIP into that category as well.

Thornburg was mentioned as holding $50B in assets. So a writedown of under $500M is a writedown of under 1%.

Am I missing something here? Is Thornburg exempt or has it decided to decline at the rate of 1% per month over the next 8 years?

Now we have a better idea - perhaps - of why Jimmy Cayne was canned. This is incredible... how can they... again...

OT but here's an article on the muck filtering into the trade credit markets:

IndustryWeek : Trade Credit Market Facing Problems

title:"Trade Credit Market Facing Problems"

"The fund lost more than $300 million between August and the end of November.

Bear Stearns said it would return $90 million in cash to investors immediately. The fund's remaining assets, which the company valued at about $500 million as of Nov. 30, will be sold and the proceeds refunded over an unspecified period of time."

My guess is that investors ought to kiss that $90M and be thankful for it. I suspect that if they go back for more that $500M is going to turn into a wisp of smoke and disappear.

Cheers,

Thornburg actually made pretty good loans,I think the CLTV was 75%,and mostly high Fico's,not subprime.The problems at Thornburg stem from leverage and ARM resets,mostly leverage.I seem to recall a high % of Jumbo loans too.They ain't cfc or Indymac.

Can we say that Thornburg is the canary in the mine telling us that it's not yet contained?

They're no more exempt than anyone else because this situation is not only not contained, we're merely in round 3 of a 12 round fight.

The top floors of subprime are still careening down and they've fallen onto credit cards, MEW's, the wacky world of TLA's, retail sales, and the trickle up income streams of those who thought themselves secure and even more secure.

I live in a destination community in an area that's destination within that rarified atmosphere, and on this street of 2 miles are 6 homes for sale; that's nearly 10% of the homes on this street...for sale.

Thornburg will cook with the rest of 'em, more slowly, but these homes here, with their prime and jumbo mtgs held by the likes of Thornburg who leveraged this glitter will soon enough find it's fools gold.

As to sales? How about 4 off the market, unsold, now, and not one of any selling in the past nearly year?

Watch the canary, or just watch the MLS.

GaudiaRay:
I live in a destination community in an area that's destination within that rarified atmosphere, and on this street of 2 miles are 6 homes for sale; that's nearly 10% of the homes on this street...for sale.

I live in a destination community too (three guesses what SB stands for), and I see lots of For Sale signs. I was riding my bike on my lunch hour today and saw several open house signs on a Wednesday. The sellers are still not accepting the fact that nearly $1M for a 3 bedroom 40 year old tract home is not going to get many serious looks. Ray, are the sellers getting a grip on what they can hope to sell for in your area yet?

I'm just suprised that they are still in business but then so is CW. They're hanging on hoping big Paul can save them.
jo6pac

paul_in_sb,

Well, the owners of the SIV's, CDO's, and other various flavors of RMBS and CMBS, aren't getting a grip on the problem either. They're struggling to hold on because the bottom is "just around the corner".

And Guadia,

I don't buy fools gold, I buy the real stuff.

Wink

Cheers,

Haloscan, oh Haloscan....why you no worky?

Haloscan needs posts to refresh?

Hindu temple in US defaults loan payment, evicted
Just loved the comment inthis blog

330 million gods and one would think that one of them would have stepped in to stop this

Bear Stearns is selling $500 million. "Wonderful, just wonderful" think the other inv banks..."more price discovery...way to go Bear Stearns". LOL

P.S. "unspecified period of time"... ya, like 15 years...

actually, you should be short the canaries.

"Once I built a hedge fund, made it run;
made it beat all its peers.
"Once I built a hedge fund, now it's done;
Brother, can you spare a dime?

"Hey do you remember, you called me Jim,
It was Jim all of the time;
"Hey do you remember, I'm your pal;
Brother, can you spare a dime?

Thornburg specializes in jumbo loans to rich people. Tom Stone is right: This is not New Century, or even Countrywide.

And they might be better than most, actually. If you are a financial firm caught up in this mess, the best thing you could do would be to take all of your write-downs now in one big bath, while investors are eager for "transparency".

Unless the writedowns would render you insolvent, that is. Then your best bet is to hide the problems as long as possible and pray for a miracle.

Thus, somewhat ironically, the firms who report the largest write-downs now might actually be the most likely to survive...

Nemo,

Re thornburg.

I posted earlier that a ton of medium term paper is coming due this year. Like $70B. It really doesn't matter in this environment who the mortgages were sold to, what matters is rolling over the short to medium paper funding the long term (30Y) paper that is the mortgages. It also matters how levered the short end versus the long end is.

If they can't turn over short/medium paper...the long stuff has to get sold now, when no one wants it.

I'm just saying...and speculating.

Cheers,

Misean

IIRC isn't there supposed to be a large sum of these MTN's scheduled to turn over in the SIV's the middle of this month?

Bob_in_MA, yeah, Haloscan is acting up again. That usually means more ads coming ...

I'll try to find an alternative.

Best to all.

idoc,

Yeah, I posted earlier on another thread, let me see if I can find it and repost.

Cheers,

Concerning Thornburg Mortgage, I can not imagine the "pain" going on related to the some of the insider buying which has taken place these past nine months. At this point, it must be quite personal.

OOOOOOOOOOOOUUUUUUUUUUUUUCH!

Clip from Roubini's blog.

ABX.HE index roll is being postponed for three months. The cover story is that there aren't sufficient RMBS deals in H2 2007 to construct an appropriately representative index. The back story is that by delaying the roll the industry effectively pre-empts the margin calls (registration required) that would inevitably result from a reset of the index to current market levels for all the derivatives that are based on the ABX HE.

This looks like a variation on the "don't ask, don't sell" collusion/manipulation. This ploy is aimed at hiding the mammoth losses that would come from marking ABX derivatives to market with a new ABX roll. It has two effects: (1) delays having to mark down positions valued using the old ABX, and (2) delays the defaults and dislocations that would likely result from the margin calls triggered by the roll. If the index doesn't roll, then the derivative resets that are contractually cued to the roll don't kick in and raise margin calls.

Nice, neat little manipulation. But it just adds another shroud of ill-transparency to an already warped and murky market

Structured Credit Investor

krish,

Couldn't agree more. The amount of slime pulsing through the system is beyond measurement.

Where be ye Jas?

Cheers,

I would agree that on a % basis, these amounts are not huge. Further, if you have several M to spread around to increase returns, risk does has its' rewards. Still implosions of this magnitude, across multiple players, in such a short period of time sends a chill.
The beauty of syndication and funding is that many players feel the heat but nobody (usually) gets burned.

My fear is that all the paper used by the Banks to get/borrow cash using CP may well be worthless and just perhaps at some point the FEDs will have to swallow billions of paper losses. Losses which will have to be covered by Joe Six Pack as he looks for a job in a down cycle.

Next posting is my adventure:

More on Countrywide from a closers point of view

"Posted by Leslie_Mo of MO on 1/9/08 3:03pm Msg #229850
Something another notary passed on to me. I thought I would share.

"I had a closing scheduled today for a CW modification and received a call this morning from Stewart that it was cancelled. The borrower then called me because I didn't show so I informed him and he was surprised. He called CW and they informed him that they closed down the department yesterday and cancelled all mods due to close. They are freezing the modifications and HELOCS. Not good news!"

Posted by Glenn Strickler of CA on 1/9/08 3:48pm Msg #229863
Something is going on as I had the same thing happen Monday ..."

Weird stuff going on over at CFC....

cal,

"Weird stuff going on over at CFC...."

Oh I suspect that tanzillo is a vampire, and maintains his odd colour sucking the life out of his "customers".

Cheers,

My adventure:

I was out looking at cars this evening - my 11 year old Trooper is now having issues. Stunning experience. I know it is a Wednesday evening; but, gosh geez all the dealerships were dead. I mean nobody. I mean nobody. Nobody. Five dealerships lots of staff and nobody.

I fell on a nice MPV that seemed good value - I always buy demos...and on the second visit to a dealer I sat down for the dog and pony show to get "the best price" [note I hate this dated sales approach but they seem to get a lot of satisfaction in this].

The "Sales Specialist" listened to my story and approached "his boss"...Out of the gate, it was an instant $2500 off of the reduced demo price. I was impressed. But I needed time to think and consult the boss of our household. When I started to stand and explained that I needed to think about it, the "Sales Consultant" said "give me a moment". He left and returned in a second later and offered to upgrade the auto with all tons of shit. Stuff I would never use. I said I told him I still needed to think about it. He wanted “one more chance” to make the deal. I said okay. He returned after "consulting the General Manager by calling him at home during dinner". He offered me $5500 off the asking price and a booklet of 25 free car washes and details (at the dealership) which had a "value" of $1200 and a prepaid gas card for $500.

I though about the final offer and after I asked for the upgraded mats, the fog lamps, the roof rack and the installation of an alarm system, and a five day no questions asked money back guarantee we had a deal. Unfortunate I was not able to sell my used Trooper because my neighbor agreed to buy it (while he was calling his bosses boss I too made a call) nor did I need any dealer/manufacturer financing. Oh well.

I am now good for another 196k miles and 10 years. So that was a 2008 model mid-priced auto at 62% of the MSRP where there were only 1,234 miles on the clock. (PS: I have never owned a US brand, to much trouble and this will be my first Honda). I came in under budget by $8500 that we had earlier determined by shopping online, and my other half was pleased. We are off to a three day road trip – yippie. But I do not think they made any money on the deal which makes me feel a bit guilty. Different times I guess.

Barley,

Nice.

I've done something similar for a while now.

Sales Person (SP) Do you need financing?

Me: Dunno let's have a deal.

SP: after lots of negotiating..."So does that work"

Me: "Yes, let me call the bank and get a cashiers check...I'll be bank in an hour."

SP: Gulp "Cashiers check?"

Me: "Yeah, I'm paying cash."

SP: "But you said you didn't have financing lined up."

Me: "You didn't ask if I needed it."

Cheers,

Barley, I could be wrong but from memory, that 10yr old Isuzu Trooper might be closer to an American car than you would like to think.

Oh what the hell, everybody else is doing it: First?

Goldman Says Japan Recession Risk at `Danger Level' (Update3) - Bloomberg.com

why do i get the sense Goldman is trying to sink the market? oh yeah, 3rd qtr profit was made on the back of shorting the mortgage mkt!!

barely..okay point taken! But on margin only.

Well OK,

That write up didn't work quite right. But basically I would lead on the salesman to the end of the deal thinking I needed financing, then buy with cash. Some dealers would trash the deal but it does work.

Cheers,

Hey, any ideas on the stunning reversal today. I was on track for my best day in '08 and then wham. I can't for the life of me figure out what it was short of a coordinated short squeeze. Didn't deter me though.

He offered me $5500 off the asking price and a booklet of 25 free car washes and details (at the dealership)

You feel for the old "free carwash" trick??

barely,

I was scratching my head too...had to be. The dollar saw tooth all day looked like trench warfare. Glad I played out in Nov. All cash and gold/silver.

Cheers,

Yea - I read the fine print on the dealer/manufacture financing...wrong move unless you are desperate. Pay with cash or by credit card and float the balance for a few weeks.

My neighbor had dropped by...he will have the cash for my Trooper in the morning but left me 2 x $100 bills in the interim as good faith - he is good for it. It is for his son and his son loves my Trooper. (I just saw his son in the driveway looking at the truck, neat!)

rich: I typically wash my own car good therapy on a Sat am so no value here but 60% of MSRP...I am very happy.

Barley, Another thing. Selling used vehicles to relatives or friends or especially neighbors can really get ugly when the vehicle ultimately goes kaput. That invariably happens within a couple of months.

I once sold a boat to a neighbor and I even got him to take it in for a survey and exam. Oh well...

FDIC prepares for the future by contracting new work instead of rehiring Federal employees who were riffed in 2005 (may with 15-19 years of service.)
First Financial Network, Inc. Awarded Internet Marketing Services Contract by FDIC
Page Cannot Be Found

I remember a few months back (August? Sept?) when that clown on CNBC was staring into the TV camera and saying "the insiders are buying the financials!".

Ahh, those were the days.

Banker, it looks like your speculation the other day was correct. BSC's Board is exploring strategic alternatives. Apparently, according to the Financial Times, Cayne recently tried and failed to get something done with Fortress. I guess it would have been a face-saving exit if he could have pulled it off. See article on ft.com today, "Bear and Fortress held tie-up talks."

Some Florida bank health news...
How healthy is your bank?
The page cannot be found

barely,

When you are having a great day in 08, sell something high with the idea of buying it back cheaper in a little while. i think it's going to be a pattern this year. i did that today with sRS and it worked out.

barely > Thanks for the heads up. I have said three times "as-is", so my conscious is clear. And he is paying me $2500 way below any blue book value...so he too knows of possible pitfalls..hech the new breaks two months ago were $600.

After further review, I think there's another story in Ruby Tuesday. Their major asset is a over 300 company-owned stores for which they own both land and buildings. Probably in a good market, each store was worth $2 million or more, and that was enough collateral for the bankers who gave the company a $300 million+ revolving credit line.

But what are those stores worth in a sinking economy with vast retail/restaurant overcapacity?

Normally, the bankers could count on selling a chunk of stores to another restaurant operator, if necessary to keep the company afloat and make the loan good. But who would want to buy 50 or so Ruby Tuesday locations now, or after the recession really gets going? What else are they good for?

Some of the same problems we talk about in residential are going to hit CRE. Falling collateral, high leverage, no buyers, reposessions, and then what?

P.S. The company spent $180 million in cold cash (borrowed money) buying back its own shares last year at $27 per share. Now, it's pushing $6. HBow many small-cap u.S. companies were just as greedy and short-sighted?

rich

would you define high? how about low? how about that 8 out of the last 9 days of price drops on GRMN that i've been holding short that had its biggest intraday drop of >11% today? i actually have been slowly covering chunks of it on the way down as you recommend but wish i'd held it all for todays big drop. can't win them all and i've still made a killing on it. holding my final one third for the medium term.

not to disagree but just to illustrate.

After midnight, we gonna let it all hang out...

1/10/2008 12:04:09 AM *Capital One Financial Lowers Full Year 2007 EPS Outlook To About $3.97 From Prior Outlook Of About $5.00

Anyone looking at MLS numbers should take them with a shaker of salt.There are quite a few REO's in sonoma county for sale with realtors signs in the yard that do not show up on the MLS.I do not know how many,and could not guess but do know of 20 plus personally."Days on Market" has been a bad joke for years,but the deliberate hiding of inventory has only been obvious for a few months.Disclosure: I am a Licensed Real Estate Broker.

I was out looking at cars this evening - my 11 year old Trooper is now having issues. Stunning experience. I know it is a Wednesday evening; but, gosh geez all the dealerships were dead. I mean nobody. I mean nobody. Nobody. Five dealerships lots of staff and nobody.

My car story - I just bought a used truck to haul firewood & go fishing. Very large 4X4 Dodge Ram circa 1999-2000... biggest damn thing I've ever bought, one of those big V8s that sucks gas just sittin' in the driveway. My sister needed help climbing up into it... hilarious sight to see.

Very good deal - bought if from a friend who is a sales manager at a local shop and knows how crazy I am... it belonged to another friend who traded it in for a newer BF truck - shit he barely drove the thing... eight years old and only 70 some thousand miles. So clean and well maintained inside it looked new (not anymore!!!)... why do people buy trucks and not use them as trucks?

I've hit two deer this fall and needed a big vehicle... well I hit one and my son hit the other. He totaled an old jeep I had used as my beater go-it-the-woods-and-haul-stuff-out car. It had 280K on it and was near death anyway.

But when I went shopping ON A SATURDAY the dealership was also empty - completely empty. And they gave me a better deal than any of the local 'private parties' had offered me on similar vehicles. I did a 100 mile radius search on 'carsoup.com' too, not just my little old town so I knew what was out there... Meaning those folks were upside down and not willing or able to admit it & come down. My buddy threw out a number and we shook on it then and there - about $2k to $3K lower than any of the private parties were willing to take for a similar vehicle (realize I wanted a well maintained BIG truck for less than $10K - got it too, taxes and such a little more). The dealership needed to move product and used trucks are a drug on the market - lousy construction market and $3/gal gas.

Oh man am I gonna beat up on this thing.

*PS my everyday vehicle is a 50 mpg diesel Jetta... great mileage but doesn't hold much firewood.

"I fell on a nice MPV that seemed good value - I always buy demos...(PS: I have never owned a US brand, to much trouble and this will be my first Honda)."

Well barley, you are quite an informed buyer. I regret to inform you, that you now own a Mazda. LOL!

Hedge funds typically charge 2% & 20%. Outrageous. In aggregate, higher fees do not equate with higher returns, lower fees do.

I suspect that pension funds are finally realizing that future returns will be much lower than expected and certainly lower than the last 25 years. Failing to acknowledge this likely outcome now is a dis-service to future beneficiaries.

Stretching to increase returns by investing in hedge funds will, in total, fail to increase returns.
The distibution of returns will wreak further havoc.

More savings, not more risk and higher fees are required.

The Fed or Congress should address this honestly and immediately. Realistic projections are required, not foolish hope.

DialM - Actually it is a "Multi Purpose Vehicle" to be specific an "Element"

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