"Did you know that 1 in 6 people over 55 are ready for retirement and gold is going through the roof? Have you thought about investing in Gold Certificate Mutual Funds issued by Proud American Insurace Corp?"
I'd like to know when Dr. Baen last looked for a job. If I'm managing people, the flat-out LAST folk I'm hiring are real estate agents.
What's great is that he theorized they'd be working for hedge funds. Really? Would they buy securities containing loans of houses they personally sold? Oh, to be a fly on a wall in a meeting or two at that company.
I hear the hedge fund operations at Bear Stearns are hiring...
But Dr. Baen of the University of North Texas is optimistic about their futures. "These people are hustlers, hard workers. They're used to getting on the phone," he says. "They'll end up in insurance, in mutual funds, in retirement planning, and commodities."
So now they'll be selling whole life insurance, annuities and gold exploration penny stocks to the elderly.
Just as long as I don't have to pay for it....no wait.
Father of one of my good friends is an MBA who's "trying to get into commodities." Oil futures, cattle futures, etc. He's either bored, senile, or some combination of the two, nobody's really sure.
Dr. Baen: You can't just "get into" commodities. You need to know people.. and earn their trust that you know what the h e double hockey sticks you're doing.
If we've redefined Ketchup as a Vegetable and Manufacturing as Hamburgers, I see no reason Commodities can't be Fries. Our Economy really is the Super Meal Deal!
I was quite impressed by the mobility of American workforce when I moved here. Now I'm having second thoughts. The guy's a computer developer, must have jumped on the dot-com wagon. Then on to the real-estate wagon. Now Dr. Baen suggests he moves on to the commodities. Where next?
" One problem for out-of-work agents is that their skills may not transfer easily to other careers. "
Now wait just a minute! Are you suggesting that a profession whose entire purpose is non-value-added and consists entirely of chutzpah and Potemkin villages... might have difficulty in the real world of deliverables, Excel math, and stupifyingly boring meetings?
That post was the perfect set-up. I'm still laughing! I wonder how these folks will migrate into what will be a constricting labor market for financial services?
Speaking as someone in the IT profession, I can say that depending on how much time Mr. Banecke took off from his original career, he may find it tough to get back to the old income level.
IT is a fast changing field, and technologies that were in demand 5-7 years ago are no longer that easy to find work in. For example, my favorite programming language is C++, which used to command a very high salary for advanced programmers with specific business domain experience. However, nowadays there is much more demand for .NET and Ajax/web based development technologies.
Rightly or wrongly, tech employers will look at a resume gap such as his with some skepticism, depending on how long he has been out. I'd say less than 2 years is probably OK, anything longer and he's looking at starting at a more junior level, with commensurate pay cut.
I've actually been thinking a lot about asset bubbles recently, and commodities makes the most sense for the next one. We went straight from the stock bubble to the real estate bubble, so something needs to replace it to keep the shell game going.
Paper assets are out (too close to stock), and there's nothing comparable to real estate. That leaves minerals, precious gems, grains, livestocks, etc. Gold is probably the leading indicator for this trend, but don't be surprised if beef is $20 a pound in three years...
Interesting that the "next" careers mentioned are all about flexible schedules and the vague promise of striking it rich.
For those of you wondering where all the Realtors are heading to next, look no further than canary-in-the-mine-boy Casey Serin. He started out in tech (check), moved on to real estate speculation (check), and is now working in . . . (drumroll) . . . MLM schemes of various stripes. I suspect many of these people will be hitting the questionable herbal supplements, overpriced skincare products, etc. circuit before going bankrupt and being forced back into the only type of work they're actually qualified for (waiting tables and running the fryer.)
With respect to the fantasies about migrating into the financial industry, word on the street is that the few financial firms that are hiring (and not laying off half their workforce) are actually looking for real credentials like education and experience, so I suspect it's going to be an unhappy quest for jobs.
A former real estate professional (probably without a degree) going for a broker position against a recently-laid-off securities trader with a degree in finance and years of experience . . . not hard to guess how that will turn out.
"They'll end up in insurance, in mutual funds, in retirement planning, and commodities."
I conservatively estimate that the U.S. has about 50% more capacity in these occupations that it actually needs, given Internet access and cost efficiencies.
In a world where stocks and bonds both return about 5% nominal and maybe 1% real, who can afford to pay a 2% fee for advice
However, there are excellent opportunities to hustle these products in China, for those willing to relocate.
seriously, the biggest trend in sales of insurance, mutual funds, stocks, etc. is outsourced call centers.
You don't have a broker, you have a phone rep. And if your account is small enough, your rep might be in India.
To sell stocks to U.S. investors, a person in India needs a securities license. But it's not hard for them to get. If people in India can help you reinstall Windows, they can explain the advantages of load mutual funds or whole life insurance.
In Palm Beach County, home of the 57-month housing supply (seriously!), former Realtors are applying in droves for jobs waiting tables. But restaurants are having a tough time, too, apparently because homeowners were extracting home equity to dine out in our overpriced eateries.
Sad, really. Anyplace they go they will be a disruptive force. Can you imagine working a commission sales job like auto sales and one day you arrive at the dealership to find another dozen ex real estate now car salesmen standing around?
Ain't nobody gonna make money where these people show up.
The saddest part of this is the idea of spending taxpayer money on these people. You need training to learn to say "would you like fries with that" when all you know is "and here is the bathroom"?
I understand McDonalds is on a growth spurt - these people can find jobs commensurate with their abilities there.
Either Dr. Baen has a good sense of humor, or he doesn't have enough street smarts to realize that being called a "hustler" doesn't carry positive overtones in some circles.
University of North Texas is known, albeit by very few, for its journalism and arts programs. I briefly considered UNT for its photojournalism program. UNT is in dry county, a primary cause for ruling it out. Changing career interests was secondary.
But Dr. Baen of the University of North Texas is optimistic about their futures. "These people are hustlers, hard workers. They're used to getting on the phone," he says. "They'll end up in insurance, in mutual funds, in retirement planning, and commodities." Seeing how they messed up our economy, I'm not optimistic about OUR future. We need less hustling, and more reflecting on the consequences of hustling.
Too tired to phrase this in a clever, snarky way.
A Plastic Mortgage Pig(tm) in every Commodities Happy Meal!
omg! when I was a kid, the S&L used to give out plastic pigs (piggy banks) to the kids to save pennies in. every good idea comes back sooner or later. (except this time its to save all those dollar coins that nobody wants in their cash drawer)
We had a rash of staff openings here at UC last year as people left the sacramento area for greener pastures. We also had a lot of applications from people in REIC, about 40%. In my little slice of the world, I didn't interview a single one. They lacked all the skills we were looking for. I have no clue why HR passed them down to me - cannon fodder maybe?
In contrast to this time last year, we are hiring very little anymore and expect a freeze any day. Staff planning meetings here are dismal. The only major hiring we will still be doing in the next 3 yrs will be for faculty and senior researcher positions.
Here in the UK this is what some satirical writers were saying were about future career paths for realtors a.k.a. estate agents after the bubble burst.....
"WORRIED homeowners were cheered last night as economists revealed that next year's house price collapse will lead to widespread starvation and prostitution among Britain's estate agents"
"She's planning to become a high school science teacher."
Great. From hustling condos and overheated single family's to teaching America's 'youts. Why not be brutally accurate and simply say: 'Her fallback plan is to "retool" and completely abandon the private sector,then slide sideways into the largest public sector labor union in the country.' Hey, Helicopter Ben, how do you capture that in the productivity stats?
I had an acquintance moved to China to work in financials late in 05. It was a plum job by his standards. The reason they hired him was because his parents were Chinese. Apparently, they were only looking for people of chinese-american desent because they had a large mistrust of outsiders. Not sure if the guy was pulling my leg but it certainly mirrored my experiences in China in 96-97.
Well, here in Maryland, they are looking for ways to make sure the criminals - felons in particular - are able to vote early and often, so I am sure this will end really well for all of us.
At least she's not in CA were the school populations are shrinking fast (families outmigrating) and hiring will come to an absolute freeze as Arnold trashes the education budget. Becoming a teacher is not going to be an option for CA agents.
"But Dr. Baen of the University of North Texas is optimistic about their futures. "These people are hustlers, hard workers. They're used to getting on the phone," he says. "They'll end up in insurance, in mutual funds, in retirement planning, and commodities."
Oh Mr. Bean, what alternate universe are you living in? The only jobs they are good for are used car salesman and burger flippers.
central_scrutinizer | 01.10.08 - 11:10 am
...
IT is a fast changing field, and technologies that were in demand 5-7 years ago are no longer that easy to find work in. For example, my favorite programming language is C++, which used to command a very high salary for advanced programmers with specific business domain experience. However, nowadays there is much more demand for .NET and Ajax/web based development technologies.
...
central,
We are trying to fill a couple of openings, and all we seem to get are resumes from Indians here on work visas. What's going on? Aren't there any Americans in the IT industry any longer? By the way, their experience stinks. Very short term contract gigs with large gaps, but they have every IT buzzword/acronym known to man on their resumes. Maybe that's why they are typically 15-16 pages long...
Becoming a teacher is not going to be an option for CA agents.
My wife has 10+ years experience in elementary education, and I've yet to find a single realtor (and I've met hundreds) whom I'd even consider qualified to be her educational assistant, much less a teacher herself.
A serious question is how many well-heeled investors will want to keep their brokers/advisors when this bear market finally bottoms out.
All the hype you see on CNBC is coordinated to reinforce the advice of retail brokers such as "allocate your assets" and "invest for the long-term" and "don't try to time the market."
If the same people who lost 50% on the S&P from top to bottom in 00-02 lose another 40-50%, I think they've had enough of that advice.
Crispy&Cole,
I'll stick with my inside 20k number. The 50k is a bargaining giveawy. 50k is the number eligible for 'review' under the early release plan I've heard bandied about in the bowels of the process.
Wait until you hear the words "revenue enhancement." Those are the agreed upon code words for massive middle class tax hike.
Mook, I doubt most of these agents have a clue what pedagogy is, much less how to spell it. These people could only hope for a clerical position as best.
They call him Flipper, Flipper, faster than lightning,
No one you see, is smarter than he,
And we know Flipper, lives in a world full of wonder,
Flying there under, under the sea!
Everyone loves the king of the sea,
Ever so kind and gentle is he,
Tricks he will do when children appear,
And how they laugh when hes near!
They call him Flipper, Flipper, faster than lightning,
No-one you see, is smarter than he,
And we know Flipper, lives in a world full of wonder,
Flying there-under, under the sea!
I figured the average salary last night for realtors in the local realtor (SRAR) group to be $29k for this last year... if the brokerage took nothing. Splitting the money evenly with the broker obviously drops that in half... and it doesnt include mls fees, realtor dues and various costs of being a realtor. Realistically the average salary was probably in the 15-17k range.
But in the power of positive thinking there fearless President wrote an article and posted it, "2007 Was a Very Good Year".
I think it would kill them instantly if they had a negative thought.
Aren't there any Americans in the IT industry any longer? By the way, their experience stinks. Very short term contract gigs with large gaps, but they have every IT buzzword/acronym known to man on their resumes.
We've replaced Observer's HR department with a family of illiterate colobus monkeys. Let's see if he can tell the difference...
Western WATS is always hiring phone workers. If you Google them, pay no attention to the search results that suggest a lack of conscience is a plus when hiring in. Sounds ideal for real estate hustlers looking for new hot deals. Of course starting pay is in the low to mid $7-8 dollars per hour range...
Jane said, "At least she's not in CA were the school populations are shrinking fast (families outmigrating) and hiring will come to an absolute freeze as Arnold trashes the education budget. Becoming a teacher is not going to be an option for CA agents."
A popular misconception. Certain locales have lost school age population as increased housing costs priced out young families. However, the population of California grew by about half a million people last year. And the growth all came at the delivery room. And this has been an ongoing trend for a while. And all those babies will have to go to school somewhere.
"These people are hustlers, hard workers. They're used to getting on the phone," he says. "They'll end up in insurance, in mutual funds, in retirement planning, and commodities."
They'll also move to areas of the country where the bubble hasn't burst yet in the hopes of getting one last 6% check. I have visions of realtors living three to a room in Queens just to try and tap into the bonus season spending spree.
Ahhh, just like we expected - Bernanke opens the door to aggressive rate cuts, and the market pops, especially financials. And you all were wondering why people were selling out last night. I think rich had it right....sell when it's high. IDOC - if you need a definition for high, it is called "pre-bernanke" opens his flap trap.
"We had a rash of staff openings here at UC last year as people left the sacramento area for greener pastures...
In contrast to this time last year, we are hiring very little anymore and expect a freeze any day. Staff planning meetings here are dismal. "
Woo Hoo! Another UC employee. I'm down here at UC Santa Cruz, and hiring has dropped to about nothing except for development staff (fundraising) -- and even that the agents wouldn't be qualified. If they want a half-time job manning the front desk at the Registrar's Office, they might qualify.
As for real estate people going into teaching... well, the market's pretty awful, except for subbing. If you want to sub, there's all the $90/day gigs you want, in the tough districts.
Frankly, a couple of the agents I know were teachers, and they got into real estate after retirement for extra cash. They're not going back; one's established enough to ride it through, the other can live off what she's got, if it comes to that.
Aren't there any Americans in the IT industry any longer?
Computer science programs nearly collapsed with the tech collapse. Even the top places (I am in the computer science dept. at Cornell) saw majors drop by half. I have friends at smaller teaching schools who saw the computer science programs at their institutions eliminated from lack of demand.
Things just started to turn around this past year. We have stopped hemoraging majors, but we still are nowhere near where we used to be. Add to that the 4 year lag of waiting for students to graduate, and it will be a while before supply picks up on this end. Right now every warm body we graduate is getting sucked up by "YahoogleSoft" (Or in the case of my computer game-focused students, EA).
Well, here in Maryland, they are looking for ways to make sure the criminals - felons in particular - are able to vote early and often, so I am sure this will end really well for all of us. Well we couldn't keep Terry Broadwater out of office with a constituional ammendment so....
w: "Wait until the ex-Realtors find out the hours the rest of us work."
Thanks for making my day. People who went from the generous hours of the dot.com industry to the extremely generous hours of the real estate industry are in for a rude shock. (Yes, there are real estate professionals who put in serious hours, but they're not the ones that will be looking for work.)
If you want that kind of a schedule, though, there's always academia . . . although I hear that they require a degree of some sort, and there's something about having to wait for "tenure" before you get the extremely flexible schedule.
More non news. I have a friend who is a realtor. For the last several decades 20% of the realtors did 80% of the business. So if the other 80% of realtors exited the business it would mostly be a 'so what'.
A better title would be 'Speculators Exiting the Business
"Becoming a teacher is not going to be an option for CA agents."
Agreed. I'm currently reviewing admissions files for a university and am surprised at how many realtors have no college degree at all. Or perhaps a two-year degree. As a law professor friend of mine said recently, "you know, Lionel, realtors just seem to be really dumb."
I think that's an important observation MPinCo, that 20% of the agents do 80% of the business...so ~1M RE agents have already felt whatever pangs there are in this "job dislocation" that nonetheless "made them a living".
Shall we revise our BLS numbers to note that it is hard to tell whether these people are working or not?
On the good side, while they were "getting on the phones" as Dr. Baen (would he be a hustler, just waiting for this interview?) might put it, they could have also been up-grading their skills (from the fabulous 6wks some require) preparing for their exit and relocation as ...rocket scientists or "computer developers" like Thomas Banecke.
Not likely that far removed from marketing, I make it...such a pity given the dwindling consumer market and hustlable clients.
Tanta, is it true that the Mortgage Pig is a bit lopsided and quite top-heavy? I've heard that no matter how many times you set it down on its feet, it quickly turns upside down.
We are trying to fill a couple of openings, and all we seem to get are resumes from Indians here on work visas. What's going on?
My only thought jibes well with what other posters have said, that younger Americans are no longer entering engineering/computer science fields thus paving the way for more outsourcing and less US home grown talent.
Walker, I check the job postings regularly at Cornell and it appears they are constantly looking for administrative assistants and other support staff. What gives? Are the chiefs around town impossible to work for?
Copy, cut and prepare to paste: we'll want to revisit this thread in its entirety as the glut of financial engineering MBA's get pink-slipped over the next few years (quarters... months?).
My only uncertainty is whether they fall through the cracks or jump out the windows. Probably the former, as few tall buildings with extensive climate controls have windows that open. Then again, many will still have the strength and anger to throw their Ergon chairs through tinted panes to create an escape hatch.
Yes, there are multiple reasons for shouting, "Look out below."
Observer: The reason you get resumes with all buzzwords and acronyms is because that's what most recruiters are searching for, and people have figured out how to play this game. Unfortunately, writing good resumes and writing good code are unrelated skill sets.
cm: Skilled recruiters know what they've learned talking to a large group of people some of whom know one another. The posers are eventually separated from the capable. Hopefully sooner, rather than later.
An Observer | 01.10.08 - 12:10 pm - "... all we seem to get are resumes from Indians here on work visas. What's going on?"
They, along with many indo-asians are more well educated than the native born largely euro latin afro descended US citizens. I know all generalizations fall false at some point, including this one. None-the-less, here's an a priori assumption to explain this... I don't suppose we in the US revere knowledge and wisdom as much as the home born people from older civiizations seem to do.
With local property tax financing providing the majority of school funding, the distribution of offers from elite universities and colleges correlate highly with the income of their parents and the cost/sq.ft of the median residences in their school district. Just a hunch why? Free markets and gentrification. Privatized high quality education for an elite few, and variable public schools for others.
In addition, there are very many distractions that preclude rigorous thinking that are manifest. All senses are presented with entertainment to hold every attention, with streaming image music and dialog full of actors and singers and athletes and super stars, full of non-stop celebrities and games.
Perhaps collectively in the madness of crowds, we are happily unaware of being possibly in an infantile stage, compelled by simply entertaining things and notions. We can hope not, for to do so we do at our witless stupidity and peril. /rant>
About H1B's? How about free markets for exchanging and organizing all three legs of the stool: Capital, goods and services? Some call it labor, but I think of us all as a mobile living capital good that transforms sunlight into accomplishment. Equilibrium is eventual, given sufficient time. Why fight it?
This is anecdotal from two years ago this month: "Many organizations are struggling to find superior technical and managerial talent. Shortages will continue to grow as baby boomers begin to retire. The baby bust population, Gens X and Y are both fewer in number and sadly less capable. The past decades' enrollments are ominous. These warn that many did not choose the demanding accounting, finance, economics, math and science-based curriculums demanded by todays employers." From: "Todays Market Overview For Organizations Seeking Superior Individuals" Not too terribly gratuitous self-promotion alert.
unreliable buyers, surly sellers, and a lack of office camaraderie contributed to a decision that solidified when home sales and prices dipped. "I was waiting for a time to kind of swing out," she says. She's planning to become a high school science teacher.
Wait until she has to deal with unreliable parents, surly students and administrators who hate her.
Hello, did you know your house consumes more energy than 90 percent of those on your block? And that the goverment can turn off your gas and electricity from Washington DC remotely? We can help you. Our black helicopters -- you've seen them! -- can install our Carbon Credit Indulgence System remotely from above your roof.
What's your credit card number? We'll just check it to make sure you're qualified for this offer right now....
shattered glass
pretty in certain lighting conditions
Ah Tanta, thank you so much for the single sentence.
They'll end up in insurance, in mutual funds, in retirement planning, and commodities."
...and waiting tables.
1st deleted
2nd troll
3rd ? commodities, i don't think so
"Did you know that 1 in 6 people over 55 are ready for retirement and gold is going through the roof? Have you thought about investing in Gold Certificate Mutual Funds issued by Proud American Insurace Corp?"
"Hello, hello?" "Tanta, you still there?"
I'd like to know when Dr. Baen last looked for a job. If I'm managing people, the flat-out LAST folk I'm hiring are real estate agents.
What's great is that he theorized they'd be working for hedge funds. Really? Would they buy securities containing loans of houses they personally sold? Oh, to be a fly on a wall in a meeting or two at that company.
I hear the hedge fund operations at Bear Stearns are hiring...
imo, GM is the next bank to hit the ropes...
But Dr. Baen of the University of North Texas is optimistic about their futures. "These people are hustlers, hard workers. They're used to getting on the phone," he says. "They'll end up in insurance, in mutual funds, in retirement planning, and commodities."
Commodities?
So now they'll be selling whole life insurance, annuities and gold exploration penny stocks to the elderly.
Just as long as I don't have to pay for it....no wait.
Why are you doing those things?
By "commodities", does he mean drugs?
Commodities?
Don't you consider "free coupon books worth $1000 for only $9.95" to be "commodities"?
Fries.
Father of one of my good friends is an MBA who's "trying to get into commodities." Oil futures, cattle futures, etc. He's either bored, senile, or some combination of the two, nobody's really sure.
Dr. Baen: You can't just "get into" commodities. You need to know people.. and earn their trust that you know what the h e double hockey sticks you're doing.
As for real estate agents, good luck.
i'm not the only one surprised by "commodities".
although i was not at all surprised by "retirement planning", that would be scary if i were an old lady.
"You can't just "get into" commodities." Unsympathetic 10:57 am
Don't you know? Gold always goes up!
Don't you consider "free coupon books worth $1000 for only $9.95" to be "commodities"?
sounds more like mbs to me. in fact, i think i heard a salesman from bear use that line...
If we've redefined Ketchup as a Vegetable and Manufacturing as Hamburgers, I see no reason Commodities can't be Fries. Our Economy really is the Super Meal Deal!
"Would you like to super-size those commodities sir?"
i guess we all concur that it's DR Baen who wants to get into commodities...
if the trader can't trade, he becomes a professor
I was quite impressed by the mobility of American workforce when I moved here. Now I'm having second thoughts. The guy's a computer developer, must have jumped on the dot-com wagon. Then on to the real-estate wagon. Now Dr. Baen suggests he moves on to the commodities. Where next?
I know! I know!
A Plastic Mortgage Pig(tm) in every Commodities Happy Meal!
" One problem for out-of-work agents is that their skills may not transfer easily to other careers. "
Now wait just a minute! Are you suggesting that a profession whose entire purpose is non-value-added and consists entirely of chutzpah and Potemkin villages... might have difficulty in the real world of deliverables, Excel math, and stupifyingly boring meetings?
How dare you, sir!
She's planning to become a high school science teacher.
Is that deflation?
Tanta,
That post was the perfect set-up. I'm still laughing! I wonder how these folks will migrate into what will be a constricting labor market for financial services?
Speaking as someone in the IT profession, I can say that depending on how much time Mr. Banecke took off from his original career, he may find it tough to get back to the old income level.
IT is a fast changing field, and technologies that were in demand 5-7 years ago are no longer that easy to find work in. For example, my favorite programming language is C++, which used to command a very high salary for advanced programmers with specific business domain experience. However, nowadays there is much more demand for .NET and Ajax/web based development technologies.
Rightly or wrongly, tech employers will look at a resume gap such as his with some skepticism, depending on how long he has been out. I'd say less than 2 years is probably OK, anything longer and he's looking at starting at a more junior level, with commensurate pay cut.
I've actually been thinking a lot about asset bubbles recently, and commodities makes the most sense for the next one. We went straight from the stock bubble to the real estate bubble, so something needs to replace it to keep the shell game going.
Paper assets are out (too close to stock), and there's nothing comparable to real estate. That leaves minerals, precious gems, grains, livestocks, etc. Gold is probably the leading indicator for this trend, but don't be surprised if beef is $20 a pound in three years...
Interesting that the "next" careers mentioned are all about flexible schedules and the vague promise of striking it rich.
For those of you wondering where all the Realtors are heading to next, look no further than canary-in-the-mine-boy Casey Serin. He started out in tech (check), moved on to real estate speculation (check), and is now working in . . . (drumroll) . . . MLM schemes of various stripes. I suspect many of these people will be hitting the questionable herbal supplements, overpriced skincare products, etc. circuit before going bankrupt and being forced back into the only type of work they're actually qualified for (waiting tables and running the fryer.)
Commodities = aluminum cans. They'll be scavenging dumpsters across America.
"These people are hustlers, hard workers. They're used to getting on the phone," he says.
wow, there's a skill set that's hard to duplicate...
Several have been spotted in my community waiting tables or bartending. Nothing surprising here...
With respect to the fantasies about migrating into the financial industry, word on the street is that the few financial firms that are hiring (and not laying off half their workforce) are actually looking for real credentials like education and experience, so I suspect it's going to be an unhappy quest for jobs.
A former real estate professional (probably without a degree) going for a broker position against a recently-laid-off securities trader with a degree in finance and years of experience . . . not hard to guess how that will turn out.
My guess is they will end up as eBay sellers. Could eBay junk be considered a commodity?
did you know that if you install granite counters in a dairy queen, you can charge 10% more for every order of fries? that's a true fact.
"They'll end up in insurance, in mutual funds, in retirement planning, and commodities."
I conservatively estimate that the U.S. has about 50% more capacity in these occupations that it actually needs, given Internet access and cost efficiencies.
In a world where stocks and bonds both return about 5% nominal and maybe 1% real, who can afford to pay a 2% fee for advice
However, there are excellent opportunities to hustle these products in China, for those willing to relocate.
"Will Lie for Food"
"end up in... commodities"
Soylent Green is Brokers!
rich, I wish I could send you a spreadsheet analysis I did on that very topic including all your data points.
seriously, the biggest trend in sales of insurance, mutual funds, stocks, etc. is outsourced call centers.
You don't have a broker, you have a phone rep. And if your account is small enough, your rep might be in India.
To sell stocks to U.S. investors, a person in India needs a securities license. But it's not hard for them to get. If people in India can help you reinstall Windows, they can explain the advantages of load mutual funds or whole life insurance.
In Palm Beach County, home of the 57-month housing supply (seriously!), former Realtors are applying in droves for jobs waiting tables. But restaurants are having a tough time, too, apparently because homeowners were extracting home equity to dine out in our overpriced eateries.
University of North Texas! Woot! Woot!
How about the health care industry (ie Certified Nursing Assistants)?
"They'll end up in insurance, in mutual funds, in retirement planning, and commodities."
...and waiting tables."
Wait a minute, have you all forgotten about the $1500 they'll
each be getting to upgrade their skills?
Oh, they'll be getting into commodities, all right.
FMC-What skills?
Sad, really. Anyplace they go they will be a disruptive force. Can you imagine working a commission sales job like auto sales and one day you arrive at the dealership to find another dozen ex real estate now car salesmen standing around?
Ain't nobody gonna make money where these people show up.
The saddest part of this is the idea of spending taxpayer money on these people. You need training to learn to say "would you like fries with that" when all you know is "and here is the bathroom"?
I understand McDonalds is on a growth spurt - these people can find jobs commensurate with their abilities there.
Either Dr. Baen has a good sense of humor, or he doesn't have enough street smarts to realize that being called a "hustler" doesn't carry positive overtones in some circles.
Another classic Tanta one liner!
University of North Texas is known, albeit by very few, for its journalism and arts programs. I briefly considered UNT for its photojournalism program. UNT is in dry county, a primary cause for ruling it out. Changing career interests was secondary.
But Dr. Baen of the University of North Texas is optimistic about their futures. "These people are hustlers, hard workers. They're used to getting on the phone," he says. "They'll end up in insurance, in mutual funds, in retirement planning, and commodities."
Seeing how they messed up our economy, I'm not optimistic about OUR future. We need less hustling, and more reflecting on the consequences of hustling.
Too tired to phrase this in a clever, snarky way.
Hiker90,
I guess you ruled out Texas Tech, too, huh?
Overall, UNT is a fourth-tier institution, but yer right, the journalism program is excellent. So says a completely unbiased source.
A Plastic Mortgage Pig(tm) in every Commodities Happy Meal!
omg! when I was a kid, the S&L used to give out plastic pigs (piggy banks) to the kids to save pennies in. every good idea comes back sooner or later. (except this time its to save all those dollar coins that nobody wants in their cash drawer)
UNT, one of the best music schools in the world...believe it or not.
"unreliable buyers, surly sellers"
What utter BS. What a sense of entitlement.
"I've put up the for sale sign, cut my 6% check, NOW!"
Ya, they'll do fine in the real world.
We had a rash of staff openings here at UC last year as people left the sacramento area for greener pastures. We also had a lot of applications from people in REIC, about 40%. In my little slice of the world, I didn't interview a single one. They lacked all the skills we were looking for. I have no clue why HR passed them down to me - cannon fodder maybe?
In contrast to this time last year, we are hiring very little anymore and expect a freeze any day. Staff planning meetings here are dismal. The only major hiring we will still be doing in the next 3 yrs will be for faculty and senior researcher positions.
They have ALL become "commodities", unfortunately, this commodity is worthless. Being a slick talking huckster is worth zero now!
Here in the UK this is what some satirical writers were saying were about future career paths for realtors a.k.a. estate agents after the bubble burst.....
"WORRIED homeowners were cheered last night as economists revealed that next year's house price collapse will lead to widespread starvation and prostitution among Britain's estate agents"
The Daily Mash - ESTATE AGENTS WILL STARVE TO DEATH AFTER HOUSE PRICE CRASH, SAYS UPBEAT REPORT
"She's planning to become a high school science teacher."
Great. From hustling condos and overheated single family's to teaching America's 'youts. Why not be brutally accurate and simply say: 'Her fallback plan is to "retool" and completely abandon the private sector,then slide sideways into the largest public sector labor union in the country.' Hey, Helicopter Ben, how do you capture that in the productivity stats?
Oh, I almost forgot, it's all for the children...
California budget out (see LA Times) - 50,000 criminals to be roaming the streets. Add this to the out of work REIC members and you have a mess...
Tanta, that was hilarious. Bury your retirement funds deep!
I hate to think what these types could do to the retirement prospects of our middle-aged population. "Gold always goes up!"
Rich,
I had an acquintance moved to China to work in financials late in 05. It was a plum job by his standards. The reason they hired him was because his parents were Chinese. Apparently, they were only looking for people of chinese-american desent because they had a large mistrust of outsiders. Not sure if the guy was pulling my leg but it certainly mirrored my experiences in China in 96-97.
Golgafrincham Ark Ship B crew members.
California Gov speaks 11AM Pacific on budget proposals. 20,000 former prisioners will be reentering the housing market. Win-win.
Well, here in Maryland, they are looking for ways to make sure the criminals - felons in particular - are able to vote early and often, so I am sure this will end really well for all of us.
Texas Tech was never considered due to distance. Didn't have car when I started college. Greyhounding it from Houston to Lubbock wasn't appealing.
My friend's daughter used to play in the Houston Youth Symphony and is now attending UNT. Great kid and musician. UNT will serve her well.
I haven't seen news this shocking since reading that a whole bunch of daytraders left the profession in the wake of the 2000-01 tech crash.
Really, who could have predicted that our country didn't really need 1.4 million real estate agents at steady state? I'm stunned, I tell you!
At least she's not in CA were the school populations are shrinking fast (families outmigrating) and hiring will come to an absolute freeze as Arnold trashes the education budget. Becoming a teacher is not going to be an option for CA agents.
"But Dr. Baen of the University of North Texas is optimistic about their futures. "These people are hustlers, hard workers. They're used to getting on the phone," he says. "They'll end up in insurance, in mutual funds, in retirement planning, and commodities."
Oh Mr. Bean, what alternate universe are you living in? The only jobs they are good for are used car salesman and burger flippers.
Rob-
The LA Times is now stating 50,000 criminals to be released and moninitoring will end for thousands already on the streets...
central_scrutinizer | 01.10.08 - 11:10 am
...
IT is a fast changing field, and technologies that were in demand 5-7 years ago are no longer that easy to find work in. For example, my favorite programming language is C++, which used to command a very high salary for advanced programmers with specific business domain experience. However, nowadays there is much more demand for .NET and Ajax/web based development technologies.
...
central,
We are trying to fill a couple of openings, and all we seem to get are resumes from Indians here on work visas. What's going on? Aren't there any Americans in the IT industry any longer? By the way, their experience stinks. Very short term contract gigs with large gaps, but they have every IT buzzword/acronym known to man on their resumes. Maybe that's why they are typically 15-16 pages long...
Becoming a teacher is not going to be an option for CA agents.
My wife has 10+ years experience in elementary education, and I've yet to find a single realtor (and I've met hundreds) whom I'd even consider qualified to be her educational assistant, much less a teacher herself.
"These people are hustlers"
That's as good an epitaph as any.
A serious question is how many well-heeled investors will want to keep their brokers/advisors when this bear market finally bottoms out.
All the hype you see on CNBC is coordinated to reinforce the advice of retail brokers such as "allocate your assets" and "invest for the long-term" and "don't try to time the market."
If the same people who lost 50% on the S&P from top to bottom in 00-02 lose another 40-50%, I think they've had enough of that advice.
Great kid and musician. UNT will serve her well.
You're right, and good for her. She probably lives in Bruce Hall, a place of wondrous artistic ferment. At least, it was 25 years ago.
Crispy&Cole,
I'll stick with my inside 20k number. The 50k is a bargaining giveawy. 50k is the number eligible for 'review' under the early release plan I've heard bandied about in the bowels of the process.
Wait until you hear the words "revenue enhancement." Those are the agreed upon code words for massive middle class tax hike.
Mook, I doubt most of these agents have a clue what pedagogy is, much less how to spell it. These people could only hope for a clerical position as best.
They call him Flipper, Flipper, faster than lightning,
No one you see, is smarter than he,
And we know Flipper, lives in a world full of wonder,
Flying there under, under the sea!
Everyone loves the king of the sea,
Ever so kind and gentle is he,
Tricks he will do when children appear,
And how they laugh when hes near!
They call him Flipper, Flipper, faster than lightning,
No-one you see, is smarter than he,
And we know Flipper, lives in a world full of wonder,
Flying there-under, under the sea!
I figured the average salary last night for realtors in the local realtor (SRAR) group to be $29k for this last year... if the brokerage took nothing. Splitting the money evenly with the broker obviously drops that in half... and it doesnt include mls fees, realtor dues and various costs of being a realtor. Realistically the average salary was probably in the 15-17k range.
But in the power of positive thinking there fearless President wrote an article and posted it, "2007 Was a Very Good Year".
I think it would kill them instantly if they had a negative thought.
"These people are hustlers, hard workers. They're used to getting on the phone,"
Ha hahaha
Sounds more like a gangster to me....
Aren't there any Americans in the IT industry any longer? By the way, their experience stinks. Very short term contract gigs with large gaps, but they have every IT buzzword/acronym known to man on their resumes.
We've replaced Observer's HR department with a family of illiterate colobus monkeys. Let's see if he can tell the difference...
Western WATS is always hiring phone workers. If you Google them, pay no attention to the search results that suggest a lack of conscience is a plus when hiring in. Sounds ideal for real estate hustlers looking for new hot deals. Of course starting pay is in the low to mid $7-8 dollars per hour range...
We've replaced Observer's HR department with a family of illiterate colobus monkeys.
UPGRADED did you?
Hiker, a family member is a professor in the UNT Music Dept, but don't worry they're not a sarcastic twit like I am.
Jane said, "At least she's not in CA were the school populations are shrinking fast (families outmigrating) and hiring will come to an absolute freeze as Arnold trashes the education budget. Becoming a teacher is not going to be an option for CA agents."
A popular misconception. Certain locales have lost school age population as increased housing costs priced out young families. However, the population of California grew by about half a million people last year. And the growth all came at the delivery room. And this has been an ongoing trend for a while. And all those babies will have to go to school somewhere.
"These people are hustlers, hard workers. They're used to getting on the phone," he says. "They'll end up in insurance, in mutual funds, in retirement planning, and commodities."
They'll also move to areas of the country where the bubble hasn't burst yet in the hopes of getting one last 6% check. I have visions of realtors living three to a room in Queens just to try and tap into the bonus season spending spree.
Did ben just jawbone up the DOW?
Ahhh, just like we expected - Bernanke opens the door to aggressive rate cuts, and the market pops, especially financials. And you all were wondering why people were selling out last night. I think rich had it right....sell when it's high. IDOC - if you need a definition for high, it is called "pre-bernanke" opens his flap trap.
Bernake speaks!
By selling out, I mean getting out of SKF.
"We had a rash of staff openings here at UC last year as people left the sacramento area for greener pastures...
In contrast to this time last year, we are hiring very little anymore and expect a freeze any day. Staff planning meetings here are dismal. "
Woo Hoo! Another UC employee. I'm down here at UC Santa Cruz, and hiring has dropped to about nothing except for development staff (fundraising) -- and even that the agents wouldn't be qualified. If they want a half-time job manning the front desk at the Registrar's Office, they might qualify.
As for real estate people going into teaching... well, the market's pretty awful, except for subbing. If you want to sub, there's all the $90/day gigs you want, in the tough districts.
Frankly, a couple of the agents I know were teachers, and they got into real estate after retirement for extra cash. They're not going back; one's established enough to ride it through, the other can live off what she's got, if it comes to that.
Aren't there any Americans in the IT industry any longer?
Computer science programs nearly collapsed with the tech collapse. Even the top places (I am in the computer science dept. at Cornell) saw majors drop by half. I have friends at smaller teaching schools who saw the computer science programs at their institutions eliminated from lack of demand.
Things just started to turn around this past year. We have stopped hemoraging majors, but we still are nowhere near where we used to be. Add to that the 4 year lag of waiting for students to graduate, and it will be a while before supply picks up on this end. Right now every warm body we graduate is getting sucked up by "YahoogleSoft" (Or in the case of my computer game-focused students, EA).
hehe and I thought I was the only one that was a little odded out by the use of the word 'hustler.'
Keep an eye out for what industry these displaced realtors go when the dust settles... that'll be the next bubble.
Instead of the Fed letting the economy glide to a stop, Bernanke insists on punching the pedal for a lurchy-jerky stop. Thanks grampa.
"The big worry is that consumers might cut back on their spending, sending the economy into a tailspin." --AP
Didn't consumers already cut back? Do these guys read the news?
Gab,
Absolutely true! In my area, 21k births kept the population positive by 10k. This has been going on for a while and the families keep leaving.
I know one realtor, and another loan broker, that have gone back to stripping.
Times are tough.
By "commodities", does he mean drugs?
He probably had boiler room phone sales in mind. But drugs might be a better choice ... and more socially responsible.
High school science teacher....
"So you use the equation (A2-A1)/(B2-B1) to find the slope of the equation."
"what if A1 is less than A2? I get a negative number."
"Listen right now you little sh**! It can never go down! Do you hear me? NEVER! Always UP! Never DOWN!"
Well, here in Maryland, they are looking for ways to make sure the criminals - felons in particular - are able to vote early and often, so I am sure this will end really well for all of us. Well we couldn't keep Terry Broadwater out of office with a constituional ammendment so....
"A Plastic Mortgage Pig(tm)"
Imported (naturally), sporting painted on lipstick, of the lead tainted variety.
Depends on what you mean by commodities.
Back in the day when my wife was teaching pre-school she had a parent who had retired in his mid 30's after a career in commodities.
Then the second round of indictments came out in the Lloyd, Carr case.
Having already hidden my 401k money. On a serious note, aren't these people "self-employed" and so not in the official unemployment numbers?
Wait until the ex-Realtors find out the hours the rest of us work.
"They'll end up in insurance, in mutual funds, in retirement planning, and commodities."
Or, they'll be on the next Golgafrincham B-ark to the outer reaches of the galaxy.
We heard that residential construction workers were out of work, too.
Somehow it never showed in the stats, though.
I thought I'd noticed a fall-off in snark lately, but I see you've been busy with other endeavors:
Tata Unveils the World's Cheapest Car
Now if you could just invent a $2500 townhouse...
w: "Wait until the ex-Realtors find out the hours the rest of us work."
Thanks for making my day. People who went from the generous hours of the dot.com industry to the extremely generous hours of the real estate industry are in for a rude shock. (Yes, there are real estate professionals who put in serious hours, but they're not the ones that will be looking for work.)
If you want that kind of a schedule, though, there's always academia . . . although I hear that they require a degree of some sort, and there's something about having to wait for "tenure" before you get the extremely flexible schedule.
More non news. I have a friend who is a realtor. For the last several decades 20% of the realtors did 80% of the business. So if the other 80% of realtors exited the business it would mostly be a 'so what'.
A better title would be 'Speculators Exiting the Business
In a deflationary environment, these ex-realtors may want to get into "selling" treasury bills and all other U.S Government bonds.
"Becoming a teacher is not going to be an option for CA agents."
Agreed. I'm currently reviewing admissions files for a university and am surprised at how many realtors have no college degree at all. Or perhaps a two-year degree. As a law professor friend of mine said recently, "you know, Lionel, realtors just seem to be really dumb."
Commodities = Amway?
I think that's an important observation MPinCo, that 20% of the agents do 80% of the business...so ~1M RE agents have already felt whatever pangs there are in this "job dislocation" that nonetheless "made them a living".
Shall we revise our BLS numbers to note that it is hard to tell whether these people are working or not?
On the good side, while they were "getting on the phones" as Dr. Baen (would he be a hustler, just waiting for this interview?) might put it, they could have also been up-grading their skills (from the fabulous 6wks some require) preparing for their exit and relocation as ...rocket scientists or "computer developers" like Thomas Banecke.
Not likely that far removed from marketing, I make it...such a pity given the dwindling consumer market and hustlable clients.
My guess is they will end up as eBay sellers. Could eBay junk be considered a commodity?
Ministry of Truth
that's what i thought in 2002...
and then the i/o arm plague swept into town...
i'm looking on the horizon for the next superbug
retirement planning
Wait just a cotton pickin' minute. They've been in that bidness for years.
"Yeah, you just buy these two houses and sell them for more in a couple of years and your retirment is taken care of."
Sign me up!
Tanta, is it true that the Mortgage Pig is a bit lopsided and quite top-heavy? I've heard that no matter how many times you set it down on its feet, it quickly turns upside down.
central,
We are trying to fill a couple of openings, and all we seem to get are resumes from Indians here on work visas. What's going on?
My only thought jibes well with what other posters have said, that younger Americans are no longer entering engineering/computer science fields thus paving the way for more outsourcing and less US home grown talent.
Walker, I check the job postings regularly at Cornell and it appears they are constantly looking for administrative assistants and other support staff. What gives? Are the chiefs around town impossible to work for?
Copy, cut and prepare to paste: we'll want to revisit this thread in its entirety as the glut of financial engineering MBA's get pink-slipped over the next few years (quarters... months?).
My only uncertainty is whether they fall through the cracks or jump out the windows. Probably the former, as few tall buildings with extensive climate controls have windows that open. Then again, many will still have the strength and anger to throw their Ergon chairs through tinted panes to create an escape hatch.
Yes, there are multiple reasons for shouting, "Look out below."
younger Americans are no longer entering engineering/computer science fields
people my age either hit the dotcom lottery in the 90s, washed out, or are happily working at MS, Google, Apple, or the defense sector.
Me, I'm a little of everything
Observer: The reason you get resumes with all buzzwords and acronyms is because that's what most recruiters are searching for, and people have figured out how to play this game. Unfortunately, writing good resumes and writing good code are unrelated skill sets.
cm: Skilled recruiters know what they've learned talking to a large group of people some of whom know one another. The posers are eventually separated from the capable. Hopefully sooner, rather than later.
They, along with many indo-asians are more well educated than the native born largely euro latin afro descended US citizens. I know all generalizations fall false at some point, including this one. None-the-less, here's an a priori assumption to explain this... I don't suppose we in the US revere knowledge and wisdom as much as the home born people from older civiizations seem to do.
With local property tax financing providing the majority of school funding, the distribution of offers from elite universities and colleges correlate highly with the income of their parents and the cost/sq.ft of the median residences in their school district. Just a hunch why? Free markets and gentrification. Privatized high quality education for an elite few, and variable public schools for others.
In addition, there are very many distractions that preclude rigorous thinking that are manifest. All senses are presented with entertainment to hold every attention, with streaming image music and dialog full of actors and singers and athletes and super stars, full of non-stop celebrities and games.
Perhaps collectively in the madness of crowds, we are happily unaware of being possibly in an infantile stage, compelled by simply entertaining things and notions. We can hope not, for to do so we do at our witless stupidity and peril. /rant>
About H1B's? How about free markets for exchanging and organizing all three legs of the stool: Capital, goods and services? Some call it labor, but I think of us all as a mobile living capital good that transforms sunlight into accomplishment. Equilibrium is eventual, given sufficient time. Why fight it?
This is anecdotal from two years ago this month: "Many organizations are struggling to find superior technical and managerial talent. Shortages will continue to grow as baby boomers begin to retire. The baby bust population, Gens X and Y are both fewer in number and sadly less capable. The past decades' enrollments are ominous. These warn that many did not choose the demanding accounting, finance, economics, math and science-based curriculums demanded by todays employers." From: "Todays Market Overview For Organizations Seeking Superior Individuals" Not too terribly gratuitous self-promotion alert.
unreliable buyers, surly sellers, and a lack of office camaraderie contributed to a decision that solidified when home sales and prices dipped. "I was waiting for a time to kind of swing out," she says. She's planning to become a high school science teacher.
Wait until she has to deal with unreliable parents, surly students and administrators who hate her.
Carbon!
Hello, did you know your house consumes more energy than 90 percent of those on your block? And that the goverment can turn off your gas and electricity from Washington DC remotely? We can help you. Our black helicopters -- you've seen them! -- can install our Carbon Credit Indulgence System remotely from above your roof.
What's your credit card number? We'll just check it to make sure you're qualified for this offer right now....