NEW YORK (Reuters) - A drop in factory overtime hours to the lowest level since 2002 does not bode well for the manufacturing sector and has led many to expect widespread job cuts and a recession-plagued economy.
A decline in overtime, indicated by both government and private-sector data this month, coupled with falling factory use rates, means employers are taking more aggressive steps to cut production and rein in costs.
Hey the worse it gets the better the stock market likes it. I have no explanation, but I am happy to still be able to get out of things at a profit. And I am getting out of things.
for the last few years, in various blog comments, i've been saying that sooner or later we'd find out who did their sums and hedged correctly and who didn't.
thus far, goldman gets an A+, JPMorganChase gets a B, and everyone else is somewere between D and flunking....
But it was the most straightforward call Ive made in my career and I am surprised my peer analysts have been resistant. Its so straightforward, its indisputable.
Yes. She is right. Other analysts = cowards, shills, or idiots.
Any thoughts on what percentage of Citi's dirty laundry gets aired tomorrow? I can't help but think that there is still a lot more write downs to come such as credit cards and Option Arms that have been securitized but not yet impaired.
Meredith Whitney is a real heroine in this story. Brilliant and beautiful too. What a package!
Whitney says she is fascinated by the way power is used and misused on Wall Street, adding that so many of the problems in the corporate worldfrom Enron to Citiflow from ego. "So much of this is a human story. Hubris is the cause of management mistakes 90% of the time," she says.
Predict a recession and you get grey hair
Predict a depression and you get white hair
Predict a writedown and you get a market "correction".....tomorrow.
Without bothering to do the math, a WAG would be that the divy cut + Alaweed's $10b - $20b writedown gets their tier 1 ratio a red pubic hair above 6% & their Tier 1&2 above 10.
Lots more writedowns to come, late Q2 is now the window to go long.
I guess the new questions is how long will they be in business. - jo6pac
Heck, if the Chinese are avoiding investing in them I'd say that is VERY open question. At the very least, one should ask "in business and in what form?"
Seems like producers have been complaining a lot about input prices and some reports the food industry is raising prices. Everything in the government reports has a lag. Last month we got a spike and this month's import/export was superheated. I am betting on a hot report. Now, how it translates to equities and when is anyone's guess...
OK we've seen one shotgun marriage, w. Ben as father of the bride and preacher.
To mix up the metaphor, I think it might have been the groom that was pregnant - God only knows what counterparty exposure in addition to regular old credit lines, backup l.o.c.'s etc. + the 2 billion BAC had to CFC.
Did the Fed have to give them some kind of put/escape clause on the bad stuff in addition?
Now we have the furriners. What understanding do they have with the Fed? Certainly they understand "too big to fail". Was anything else necessary?
I heard today on CNBC that the "perfect scenario" is a weaker than expected retail sales number and a tame inflation report. This would clear the FED for an intermeeting 50bps cut on Wednesday was the thinking. We can argue the merits of this line of thought, but it bears watching the market action tomorrow to see how things play out. If the data does not favor a rate cut, I imagine the markets might throw a hissy fit to force the FED's hand.
I've been reading this blog for sometime. The blog and the commentators are superb. I was looking for a post from a month or 2 back which showed the cash ratio needed for citi, merrill, HSBC based on CDOs and possible downsides... it had a nice graph. I think it showed HSBC had something like a 288% problem. Do any of you remember this one and could send a link.
So let me get this... this beautiful thing received death threats from one of the biggest corporations, based in a country who is the world's only superpower and purveyor of democracy, because she wanted to 'downgrade' it, an action that barely threatens ANY human being's survival..????
UPDATE 2-Congress panel wants to grill subprime CEOs on pay
In a letter on the hearing sent to Mozilo, Waxman wrote: "According to recent press reports, if Bank of America Corp (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) completes its proposed purchase of Countrywide Financial, you stand to collect tens of millions of dollars in severance payments and other compensation."
Waxman asked Mozilo to be prepared to explain how his compensation package aligns with shareholders' interests and whether it "is justified in light of your company's recent performance and its role in the national mortgage crisis."
Imagine how his face will look like POST-grilling !!!!
Whitney says she is fascinated by the way power is used and misused on Wall Street, adding that so many of the problems in the corporate worldfrom Enron to Citiflow from ego. "So much of this is a human story. Hubris is the cause of management mistakes 90% of the time," she says.
She's smart too...
dryfly | 01.14.08 - 6:36 pm | #
Meredith could have said "so much of this is a human with penises story" but you're right, DF, she is smart.
Who was the reporter (also a woman) who first said Enron was a house of cards in her Fortune article? Didn't she get death threats, too? Or at least threats?
"If anything", Meredith's own house was smoking! They are just planning on diluting the shit out of the existing common.
"TORONTO (Reuters) - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Monday it will take almost $2.5 billion in before-tax writedowns related to the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, and raise about C$2.75 billion in stock sales to rebuild its balance sheet."
I'm looking forward to a movie called "The Smartest Girls in the Room". Of course it will feature Tanta and Meredith but unlike the one about the boys, they actually will appear intelligent.
So, lets see 25k jobs gone at citi this year. You figure their salary average is about 2-3x the typical US salary average of all the jobs gained in any month. So, at a 75k rate of job gains, which is about what weve been posting recently, this wipes out about a month's worth of income in 08. Nice. Just wait til all the others line up (Merrill, etc.)
Just to clarify, what I was referring to was what Eddie Lampert used his intelligence to bargain with his kidnappers in a hotel room.
Lampert was convinced he was going to be killed, he says in his first public comments on the kidnapping case. "Your imagination goes absolutely wild. I was thinking about my mother and my son and my wife. What would their lives be like? Would it be painful when they shot me?" In the adjoining room, he recalls, the television was switched on to the news about the search for the body of Laci Peterson. But as the kidnappers became increasingly nervous, Lampert convinced them that if they let him go, he would pay them $40,000 a couple of days later, the source says. The hoodlums let him off on the side of a road in Greenwich early on that Sunday morning and were later arrested and convicted.
thus far, goldman gets an A+, JPMorganChase gets a B, and everyone else is somewere between D and flunking....
LB didn't do too bad either, but it's not whether you hedged, it's who you hedged with. If this gets dotcommunist ugly, it will be because of the counterparty risk.
And as far as rumors go. Citi might be in trouble, but no one in the WWF ever did steroids. It is a sad day when the WWF is more truthful than Wall Street....hey...where are my testicles?
Are these jobs being eliminated in a concentrated area? We must figure that a good percentage of these people had homes and now they will all go out at once to compete with each other in a downcycling economy. If a high percentage of these jobs are cut within the same area, it could spell further problems for those local housing markets. And whose to follow? Which other financial giants are about to get whacked?
All, I was trying to pay Ms. Whitney a compliment for saying what she believed, and not giving into the Wall Street pressure - I've posted pictures of Bill Gross, Nouriel Roubini, Ben Bernanke and others - and for some reason those photos didn't elicit any off topic comments.
Maybe I'll only post pictures of middle age (or older) guys!
I for one was honestly puzzled at why you posted her pic. I cannot recall those instances of Bill Gross and Roubini pictures (Bernanke Yes). Anyway, the financial sphere continues to be male-dominated and that's the state of things. I think that you should be glad that we all posted comments that were either:
a) general compliments towards her
b) sarcastic remarks behind which lies a true appreciation of her intelligence and a mocking of the men who threatened her.
Kushner repays loan in cash with refinancings tight
NEW YORK, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Kushner Cos, a developer that controls some of New York's marquee buildings, repaid a $200 million loan in cash rather than refinance the debt used in a $1.8 billion acquisition of a New York office tower, the company said on Monday.
You can post pictures of Meridith Whitney all you want. Nothing wrong with looking at a good looking woman while we are wait for the work to go to hell in a hand basket.
"Who was the reporter (also a woman) who first said Enron was a house of cards in her Fortune article? Didn't she get death threats, too?"
Bethany McLean and yes, she got threats.
A surprising percentage of people who are willing to stand up and say "bullshit" are female (whistleblowers for the govt., sources for reporters etc.). I have no idea or pop psychology answer as to why.
I suspect Ms. Whitney will be feeling very vindicated tomorrow morning, and deservedly so. She should take a cue from Herb Greenberg and take a shameless victory lap, she deserves it.
Unfortunately, Wall Street has an unbreakable love affair with perma-bulls, and even being right won't help an honest analyst all that much. I don't think there is any downturn big enough to break Wall Street's infatuation with the likes of Jim Cramer and Abby Joseph Cohen.
A surprising percentage of people who are willing to stand up and say "bullshit" are female (whistleblowers for the govt., sources for reporters etc.). I have no idea or pop psychology answer as to why.
What are you talking about? Of course not here, he is speaking of minyanville.com.
So, with all this new crap coming down the pike and whitney's vindication etc can I please please have a lipstick wearing pig riding a pretty pink unicorn? pleeeeeaase?
Sherryl Watkins, wasn't she the whistleblower at Enron?
Gerald, I take it you're not familiar with minyanville.com, I have no idea what your comment means. Check it out, lots of like minded financial experts there.
"A surprising percentage of people who are willing to stand up and say 'bullshit' are female (whistleblowers for the govt., sources for reporters etc.). I have no idea or pop psychology answer as to why."
Could be because 95% of whistle blowers lose their jobs, homes, and families. It takes a certain amount of "innocence" to trash your family's financial future. I've been there. Don't think I can afford to be honest again.
Kid Buck,
There was an article recently about Watkins, the Enron whistleblower. She says she's unemployable now, no one wants to hire her. She make some money on the speaker circuit, but still....no job security really.
The Money Honey was on Ellen's teevee show today. Normally she's perky, perky giving happy business news - but today Ellen & her audience asked for financial advice from Ms. Honey. 1) Never have more than 2 credit cards and she hates credit cards 2) Save, save, save 3)her entire pitch had a gloomy note to it even when Ellen tried to side track her with humor. For example, Ms. H said something like "who would flip a house" and Ellen said yeah, who would do that? Audience chuckle. Ms. H ignored it and went right on with her 'serious' financial advice so diferent from her other air-times. It was like watching butch Suze Orman reinvented into a straight Sicilian/Greek goddess. Maybe she is gunning for ol Suz's job...when CNBC can't pay the bills anymore.
In all seriousness, I don't see this as a gender issue. Sell side "research" is truly marketing literature in most cases, so getting a sell-side researcher to make a short call is impressive. But the buy side is chock full of analysts paid to identify longs and shorts without bias. Some of them are even good at their jobs.
CR, I honestly thought it was sweeps week on the internets when I saw her pic on your post. An unfortunate double standard. Besides which, a lot of us don't get out much, and rarely see pretty women at the bowling alley.
Denzel, Kid Buck II: You are so right. I'm probably a horrible person, but if my company were doing something immoral, I'd probably just leave. I wouldn't do my unethical job, but I wouldn't risk my career either.
Now an equity analyst, of course, her job is to identify longs and shorts, so she's not a whistleblower. Just somebody who might be good at her job. I say might, because a couple good calls don't make a career. If she was so good at analyzing companies, she'd make a lot more money on proprietary trading, which is the tragedy of good analysis.
A while back, when i was considered a "golden boy" in my young career in corporate america I was still a bit naive. I spoke my mind at a large company wide meeting about how what we were doing wasn't the best for the shareholders or our business. I was taken aside by a higher up and told, "you have a bright future here, as long as you stop being so honest".
The higher up was wrong about one thing. I had no future there. Corporate america has been best described as "daycare for adults". I left and have done alright since.
Suze may be phony (O, the rumors of how she made her nut off her girlfriend!); but she's more likeable than Maria Bartiromo.
Orman changed her tune about real estate, but doesn't conduct on-air orgasms when the Dow goes triple-digit green, or in riposte to analysts who deny CNBC's cheerleading. And Suze didn't do a dirty "Citi."
Maria's impostors might take note. Page Six just reported that Erin Burnett's in a jam for more or less ripping from the MH playbook. Worse, she's bent on convincing you that she knows what she's talking about the economy.
"A surprising percentage of people who are willing to stand up and say "bullshit" are female (whistleblowers for the govt., sources for reporters etc.). I have no idea or pop psychology answer as to why."
I have worked in a male dominated field (mechanic)for the past 12 years at a few different companies. In each place women were never fully accepted as one of the guys. Why? A couple of examples may help explain:
I worked at a place where we had a real a--hole for a supervisor. All the males just dealt with it. One of the only two female mechanics believed that she was being treated poorly because she was a female and complained. Ironically, many believed that she was actually being treated with kid gloves by the supervisor. I left before the issue was resolved.
At the place I presently work there is a drop dead gorgeous secretary who crosses the shop floor a few times a day. When a group of males witnesses this, the typical juvenile comments are made. When a female is amongst the guys no such comments are made, some won't even look at the secretary.
Could it be a females inability to fully penetrate the male world, that allows/motivates them to become whistle blowers more readily?
(I would have changed the wording of the last sentence if there was a woman in the room while I wrote it.)
Umm... I think we're getting ahead of ourselves here saying whistleblowers are predominantly female (they might be, I just don't know). Firstly, an n=2 doesn't really make a great statistical sample.
Secondly, and I don't mean any disrespect to Ms. Whitney, but she isn't a whistleblower. She's just doing her goddamned job. The fact that her chosen profession has such a high proportion of hucksters and idiots that actually showing up and doing what you're ostensibly paid to do makes you a hero says more about her field than it does about her.
Hmmm, you have a bunch of guys looking up to the next guy (and the money he is making), and you wonder why it seems that women are usually the whistleblowers?
They are not part of the 'mens club', so to say. So they do not feel obligated to shut their mouths and toe the line.
Also, I generally think women can be more honest about something that a guy may not be so honest about. It has something to do with them speaking their mind, thinking that you actually care about what they are saying.
Until you don't like it. I think guys tend to avoid this in the pursuit of acceptance among the men who hold positions above them.
She called it pretty much on target, and they did not like it. Truth hurts, eh?
Brains and beauty, yes. But I still prefer brunette, which my wife is very happy about. Notice I used the singular there.
WSJ, Tuesday AM: Citigroup announced a net loss of $9.83 billion and $22 billion in write-downs and consumer credit losses. The bank is raising $12.5 billion through investments by Singapore's GIC, Kuwait Investment Authority and others.
Get a grip on the Whitney bio guys: private school/Brown/history degree/job in finance/fox commentator/elite analyst job. I don't know how many of you are a product of that privilege, but I do wish you would start thinking what the minimum expectations are of those who are.
And CR, I do lay the blame for the Whitney babe commentary at your feet. Boys will be boys, but your the man who keeps the boat level.
Women do get away with murder...at least they do now anyway. May not have always been so....but society tends to over compensate a lot. But you already knew that.
Agreed about Whitney's wasp pedigree, but even the over-privileged occasionally show flashes of character and courage.
It shouldn't be a flash in the pan, that's my point exactly. Well that and the fact that the advantage of these individuals relative to the rest of the field is ignored as though it's irrelevant.
I'm not saying society should be otherwise, stratification being the way of the (grown-up) world. I just wish it would be acknowledged people could factor it into their interpretations of what their expectations are of themselves (and others).
A bear the truth of the matter is that women want to be paid like an equal and treated like women.
And toning down the comments when their are women around is part of the process. Hopefully out of respect, or because you wouldn't want someone to treat your mother/sister/daughter in such a manner. Any other reason (e.g., top down edicts) just builds resentment.
Anyway, I'll close, way off topic and this isn't what we are here for.
I'm a believer in the LT Perfect Market theory. One exception might be the ability to size up management. Buffet does it, takes control of the company and fires them if needed. Whitney sizes them up and reports.
Maybe that's the edge on the market. The ability to measure the ability of management without letting them know you're doing it and without becoming "one of them".
I was watching the "Cost of Freedom Riders" on Fox this past Saturday morning and one of those large foreheaded total market geniuses said 2008 was going to be a great year for housing. You see it right--A GREAT YEAR FOR HOUSING!!!! They said that right after they blamed Obama's Iowa Caucus victory for causing the stock market to tank at the end of last week.
I believe everything I see on Fox so all of Jan's other statements are based on faux assumptions. He seems like a nice guy though. I'm sure he means well.
Now go out and shop some more so we can win this popular war that we started on faux assumptions.
Hello admin. After the neck injury he was in a coma for a while, perhaps a natural defense the body has? I hope Jackie is coping OK homes hows it going?! missing everyone so much sale which, stores, by
Hm, cutting dividend. That should lift the stock tomorrow for sure.
"If anything, Meredith was too optimistic."
She looks sexy too.
So if we get the $20B writedown is there a pop in share price since gosh it wasn't $24B?
and OT but related in a way - more info load:
Overtime hours point to manufacturing recession
By Nick Zieminski
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A drop in factory overtime hours to the lowest level since 2002 does not bode well for the manufacturing sector and has led many to expect widespread job cuts and a recession-plagued economy.
A decline in overtime, indicated by both government and private-sector data this month, coupled with falling factory use rates, means employers are taking more aggressive steps to cut production and rein in costs.
[snip]
oh yeah, and who is kicking in the $2B that the Chinese wouldn't?
You Rock, Meredith!
what's with the picture?
Plus, she won the gold, obviously.
OH ... WHAT A SHOCK!
Hey the worse it gets the better the stock market likes it. I have no explanation, but I am happy to still be able to get out of things at a profit. And I am getting out of things.
From now on instead of hat-tips I want head-shots.
hot and smart!
botox much?
what's with the picture?
bacon dreamz | 01.14.08 - 6:14 pm | #
And cue. . .
hot and smart!
stealthwii | Homepage | 01.14.08 - 6:17 pm | #
There you have it.
Don't mess with the wife of Death Mask.
Bacon CR goofed
Say hello to TANTA
for the last few years, in various blog comments, i've been saying that sooner or later we'd find out who did their sums and hedged correctly and who didn't.
thus far, goldman gets an A+, JPMorganChase gets a B, and everyone else is somewere between D and flunking....
and cute too
From Nemo's link
But it was the most straightforward call Ive made in my career and I am surprised my peer analysts have been resistant. Its so straightforward, its indisputable.
Yes. She is right. Other analysts = cowards, shills, or idiots.
She's dreamy
Any thoughts on what percentage of Citi's dirty laundry gets aired tomorrow? I can't help but think that there is still a lot more write downs to come such as credit cards and Option Arms that have been securitized but not yet impaired.
Meredith Whitney is a real heroine in this story. Brilliant and beautiful too. What a package!
It's a free market, baby, but keep your trap shut or else.
I suppose this is the new litmus test - if the information results in death threats, it's got to be good!
rock on, mw
My Writedown guess - $25 billion.
energyecon: "So if we get the $20B writedown is there a pop in share price since gosh it wasn't $24B?"
Heck yes, Citi just made $4 billion according to wall street logic.
Meredith defies the stereotype of the dumb blonde. Not only is she beautiful, but she speaks truth to power. God bless her.
Who were the death threats from? The Saudis & Bin Laden?
Whitney says she is fascinated by the way power is used and misused on Wall Street, adding that so many of the problems in the corporate worldfrom Enron to Citiflow from ego. "So much of this is a human story. Hubris is the cause of management mistakes 90% of the time," she says.
She's smart too...
Predict a recession and you get grey hair
Predict a depression and you get white hair
Predict a writedown and you get a market "correction".....tomorrow.
Who were the death threats from? The Saudis & Bin Laden?
crispy&cole
yes. b/c she's blonde.
CR thought he'd titillate us.
Well, I for one am going to watch as a lot of Wall Street hubris gets the response from the universe that I expect.
Of course, one of the problems with being a small cog in the world is when you are right, nobody cares and your ego isn't massaged by huge bonuses.
Time to short Vail somehow.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Without bothering to do the math, a WAG would be that the divy cut + Alaweed's $10b - $20b writedown gets their tier 1 ratio a red pubic hair above 6% & their Tier 1&2 above 10.
Lots more writedowns to come, late Q2 is now the window to go long.
CR thought he'd titillate us.
idoc | 01.14.08 - 6:41 pm | #
Ya and it worked...
CFC already down to 6.08. its headed lower.
we're in an expected countertrend bounce up this wk with options exp Friday. no worries. wait til next wk or perhaps even the end of this wk.
dry
ur just one of the sheeples.
Conjure is in love.
ur just one of the sheeples.
idoc | 01.14.08 - 6:44 pm | #
Please don't tell the misses...
HMMMM... this analyst deserves closely following... maybe even stalking!
Really, no one could have seen this coming. I sure didn't.
Idoc, I've heard/read we're in countertrend rally...which could last a couple of weeks. Minyanville, places like that.
Do you think this news will derail it? This, along with some bad econ data could deliver this rally stillborn.
My guess is that the medallion is all that remains of her former life after the sex change.
I guess the new questions is how long will they be in business.
Hey, all you econogeeks. Back off. Or perhaps you missed my name....at least Conjure should know better.
Death Mask
MILF??
I guess the new questions is how long will they be in business. - jo6pac
Heck, if the Chinese are avoiding investing in them I'd say that is VERY open question. At the very least, one should ask "in business and in what form?"
Well, any thoughts on whether PPI comes in hot?
Seems like producers have been complaining a lot about input prices and some reports the food industry is raising prices. Everything in the government reports has a lag. Last month we got a spike and this month's import/export was superheated. I am betting on a hot report. Now, how it translates to equities and when is anyone's guess...
Conjure is hiding in his corner behind a large cloud of cigar smoke. He's mumbling, "Sorry, Mr. Death Mask, sorry."
OK we've seen one shotgun marriage, w. Ben as father of the bride and preacher.
To mix up the metaphor, I think it might have been the groom that was pregnant - God only knows what counterparty exposure in addition to regular old credit lines, backup l.o.c.'s etc. + the 2 billion BAC had to CFC.
Did the Fed have to give them some kind of put/escape clause on the bad stuff in addition?
Now we have the furriners. What understanding do they have with the Fed? Certainly they understand "too big to fail". Was anything else necessary?
Y'all are missing the point! Steve Jobs gives his keynote tomorrow. Nasdaq +10%
I heard today on CNBC that the "perfect scenario" is a weaker than expected retail sales number and a tame inflation report. This would clear the FED for an intermeeting 50bps cut on Wednesday was the thinking. We can argue the merits of this line of thought, but it bears watching the market action tomorrow to see how things play out. If the data does not favor a rate cut, I imagine the markets might throw a hissy fit to force the FED's hand.
Gents,
I've been reading this blog for sometime. The blog and the commentators are superb. I was looking for a post from a month or 2 back which showed the cash ratio needed for citi, merrill, HSBC based on CDOs and possible downsides... it had a nice graph. I think it showed HSBC had something like a 288% problem. Do any of you remember this one and could send a link.
Many, many thanks.
"in business and in what form?"
Islamic banking.
So let me get this... this beautiful thing received death threats from one of the biggest corporations, based in a country who is the world's only superpower and purveyor of democracy, because she wanted to 'downgrade' it, an action that barely threatens ANY human being's survival..????
Any thoughts on what percentage of Citi's dirty laundry gets aired tomorrow?
Peconic Bay | 01.14.08 - 6:28 pm | #
I don't know what percentage, but I'm willing to wager it'll be covered in skid marks.
We're all whistle-blowing MILFs now!
What the.... I thought this was a family site.
In Reaction To Meridith Whitney Overview, Citigroup Aims to Stabilize Finances
In Reaction To Meridith Whitney Overview, Citigroup CEO Aims to Get It Up Agai
Citigroup CEO At Analyst Conference: We've Fallen and We Can't Get Up
What the.... I thought this was a family site.
ac | 01.14.08 - 7:37 pm | #
Lots of 10 year-olds.
Sandy Weil Speaks
Retired Citi CEO: I'm Too Old To Handle These Analyst Comments
last post was sarcasm - not calling y'all 10 year-olds.
10 Year Old Indian Child: I Predicted Citigroup Bust In Grade 3 End-Of-Year Research Paper
10 Year Old American Child: I Predicted Meridith's Bust Size In Grade 3
denzel-let me guess, you don't want to explain what you meant by minyanville? Not here, Bud.
UPDATE 2-Congress panel wants to grill subprime CEOs on pay
In a letter on the hearing sent to Mozilo, Waxman wrote: "According to recent press reports, if Bank of America Corp (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) completes its proposed purchase of Countrywide Financial, you stand to collect tens of millions of dollars in severance payments and other compensation."
Waxman asked Mozilo to be prepared to explain how his compensation package aligns with shareholders' interests and whether it "is justified in light of your company's recent performance and its role in the national mortgage crisis."
Imagine how his face will look like POST-grilling !!!!
Whitney says she is fascinated by the way power is used and misused on Wall Street, adding that so many of the problems in the corporate worldfrom Enron to Citiflow from ego. "So much of this is a human story. Hubris is the cause of management mistakes 90% of the time," she says.
She's smart too...
dryfly | 01.14.08 - 6:36 pm | #
Meredith could have said "so much of this is a human with penises story" but you're right, DF, she is smart.
WSJ: Whitney To Start Hedge Fund
Former Equity Analyst: Tired Of Being Pimped, Would Prefer Using Talents in Hotel, Like Eddy Lampert
Careful guys, she's married to a professional wrestler. I kid you not....
U.S. Home Sales to Reach Bottom in 2008, Bankers Say
U.S. Home Sales to Reach Bottom in 2008, Bankers Say (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
windy,
I'm probably wrong but are you referring to firms that had large amounts of level 3 assets on their books.
">Link To Level 3
Who was the reporter (also a woman) who first said Enron was a house of cards in her Fortune article? Didn't she get death threats, too? Or at least threats?
How did that one turn out?
"If anything", Meredith's own house was smoking! They are just planning on diluting the shit out of the existing common.
"TORONTO (Reuters) - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Monday it will take almost $2.5 billion in before-tax writedowns related to the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, and raise about C$2.75 billion in stock sales to rebuild its balance sheet."
CIBC to sell C$2.75 bln shares to offset writedowns
| Reuters
and Goldman, net short most of the year-
Goldman Bet on Subprime Mortgage Drop for Most of '07 (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
last post was sarcasm - not calling y'all 10 year-olds.
Then I guess I will.
I'm looking forward to a movie called "The Smartest Girls in the Room". Of course it will feature Tanta and Meredith but unlike the one about the boys, they actually will appear intelligent.
That movie had a bit of hubris in it.
Is the appearance of "hubris" a sell signal?
"Then I guess I will."
Back at ya, den mom.
Then I guess I will.
THANK YOU.
Careful guys, she's married to a professional wrestler. I kid you not....
Uh huh.. ya sure... whatever you say... how do YOU know hein? what are you sherlock hol...
[ WAIT A MINUTE FROM BEHIND! OH NO! ]
So, lets see 25k jobs gone at citi this year. You figure their salary average is about 2-3x the typical US salary average of all the jobs gained in any month. So, at a 75k rate of job gains, which is about what weve been posting recently, this wipes out about a month's worth of income in 08. Nice. Just wait til all the others line up (Merrill, etc.)
I smell toast...
Re: Meridith in Hotel Room
Just to clarify, what I was referring to was what Eddie Lampert used his intelligence to bargain with his kidnappers in a hotel room.
Lampert was convinced he was going to be killed, he says in his first public comments on the kidnapping case. "Your imagination goes absolutely wild. I was thinking about my mother and my son and my wife. What would their lives be like? Would it be painful when they shot me?" In the adjoining room, he recalls, the television was switched on to the news about the search for the body of Laci Peterson. But as the kidnappers became increasingly nervous, Lampert convinced them that if they let him go, he would pay them $40,000 a couple of days later, the source says. The hoodlums let him off on the side of a road in Greenwich early on that Sunday morning and were later arrested and convicted.
The Next Warren Buffett?
thus far, goldman gets an A+, JPMorganChase gets a B, and everyone else is somewere between D and flunking....
LB didn't do too bad either, but it's not whether you hedged, it's who you hedged with. If this gets dotcommunist ugly, it will be because of the counterparty risk.
davenyc, exactly
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Bradshaw.jpg
I figured Conjure would come to his senses.
And as far as rumors go. Citi might be in trouble, but no one in the WWF ever did steroids. It is a sad day when the WWF is more truthful than Wall Street....hey...where are my testicles?
Hulk Hogan: Long ACA
Former WWF Superstar: Eat your vitamins. say your prayers and what you're gonna do when the BIG helicopter drops the MIGHTY U.S. dollar on you
Are these jobs being eliminated in a concentrated area? We must figure that a good percentage of these people had homes and now they will all go out at once to compete with each other in a downcycling economy. If a high percentage of these jobs are cut within the same area, it could spell further problems for those local housing markets. And whose to follow? Which other financial giants are about to get whacked?
All, I was trying to pay Ms. Whitney a compliment for saying what she believed, and not giving into the Wall Street pressure - I've posted pictures of Bill Gross, Nouriel Roubini, Ben Bernanke and others - and for some reason those photos didn't elicit any off topic comments.
Maybe I'll only post pictures of middle age (or older) guys!
Best to all.
That's cool. Just no pics of Angelo in blue speedos, please.
CR,
I for one was honestly puzzled at why you posted her pic. I cannot recall those instances of Bill Gross and Roubini pictures (Bernanke Yes). Anyway, the financial sphere continues to be male-dominated and that's the state of things. I think that you should be glad that we all posted comments that were either:
a) general compliments towards her
b) sarcastic remarks behind which lies a true appreciation of her intelligence and a mocking of the men who threatened her.
So don't sweat it... we're all mature now.
Maybe I'll only post pictures of middle age (or older) guys!
and lipstick-wearing Pigs, please. with or without speedos.
Whitney somehow didn't get the memo: in the era of the "money honey," you're to deliver the happy financials happily.
I'm not going to say she's the Daniel Ellsberg of financial reporting for one gutsy call. But she sure showed up the boys. You go, girl.
CR,
I though this was interesting, a sign of things to come?
Kushner repays loan in cash with refinancings tight
| Reuters
Kushner repays loan in cash with refinancings tight
NEW YORK, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Kushner Cos, a developer that controls some of New York's marquee buildings, repaid a $200 million loan in cash rather than refinance the debt used in a $1.8 billion acquisition of a New York office tower, the company said on Monday.
CR,
You can post pictures of Meridith Whitney all you want. Nothing wrong with looking at a good looking woman while we are wait for the work to go to hell in a hand basket.
"Who was the reporter (also a woman) who first said Enron was a house of cards in her Fortune article? Didn't she get death threats, too?"
Bethany McLean and yes, she got threats.
A surprising percentage of people who are willing to stand up and say "bullshit" are female (whistleblowers for the govt., sources for reporters etc.). I have no idea or pop psychology answer as to why.
I suspect Ms. Whitney will be feeling very vindicated tomorrow morning, and deservedly so. She should take a cue from Herb Greenberg and take a shameless victory lap, she deserves it.
Unfortunately, Wall Street has an unbreakable love affair with perma-bulls, and even being right won't help an honest analyst all that much. I don't think there is any downturn big enough to break Wall Street's infatuation with the likes of Jim Cramer and Abby Joseph Cohen.
Heroine or no, she looks like Justin Bond.
The whistleblower INSIDE Enron, the one who went to Ken Lay...I forgot her name... was also a woma
"She should take a cue from Herb Greenberg and take a shameless victory lap, she deserves it."
Can Gasparino spend some well deserved time in the pillory?
A surprising percentage of people who are willing to stand up and say "bullshit" are female (whistleblowers for the govt., sources for reporters etc.). I have no idea or pop psychology answer as to why.
I have noticed this as well.
Gerald:
What are you talking about? Of course not here, he is speaking of minyanville.com.
So, with all this new crap coming down the pike and whitney's vindication etc can I please please have a lipstick wearing pig riding a pretty pink unicorn? pleeeeeaase?
Goldman A+??
The clients who lost 30+% of their investment in Goldman managed hedge funds would disagree.
Ivy Zelman, another one!
Gretchen Morgenson...despite Tanta's correct criticism
C's stock had a yield of 7.7%. The market was expecting a cut. The article says a 50% cut. A 3.85% yield is nothing to sneeze at.
Sherryl Watkins, wasn't she the whistleblower at Enron?
Gerald, I take it you're not familiar with minyanville.com, I have no idea what your comment means. Check it out, lots of like minded financial experts there.
"A surprising percentage of people who are willing to stand up and say 'bullshit' are female (whistleblowers for the govt., sources for reporters etc.). I have no idea or pop psychology answer as to why."
Could be because 95% of whistle blowers lose their jobs, homes, and families. It takes a certain amount of "innocence" to trash your family's financial future. I've been there. Don't think I can afford to be honest again.
Cheers,
Kid Buck,
There was an article recently about Watkins, the Enron whistleblower. She says she's unemployable now, no one wants to hire her. She make some money on the speaker circuit, but still....no job security really.
and there business model is ?
Thank God you don't put Paul Krugman's picture up every time you mention his name...
The Money Honey was on Ellen's teevee show today. Normally she's perky, perky giving happy business news - but today Ellen & her audience asked for financial advice from Ms. Honey. 1) Never have more than 2 credit cards and she hates credit cards 2) Save, save, save 3)her entire pitch had a gloomy note to it even when Ellen tried to side track her with humor. For example, Ms. H said something like "who would flip a house" and Ellen said yeah, who would do that? Audience chuckle. Ms. H ignored it and went right on with her 'serious' financial advice so diferent from her other air-times. It was like watching butch Suze Orman reinvented into a straight Sicilian/Greek goddess. Maybe she is gunning for ol Suz's job...when CNBC can't pay the bills anymore.
Enron whistleblowing accountant: Sherrin Watkins.
In all seriousness, I don't see this as a gender issue. Sell side "research" is truly marketing literature in most cases, so getting a sell-side researcher to make a short call is impressive. But the buy side is chock full of analysts paid to identify longs and shorts without bias. Some of them are even good at their jobs.
CR, I honestly thought it was sweeps week on the internets when I saw her pic on your post. An unfortunate double standard. Besides which, a lot of us don't get out much, and rarely see pretty women at the bowling alley.
Denzel, Kid Buck II: You are so right. I'm probably a horrible person, but if my company were doing something immoral, I'd probably just leave. I wouldn't do my unethical job, but I wouldn't risk my career either.
Now an equity analyst, of course, her job is to identify longs and shorts, so she's not a whistleblower. Just somebody who might be good at her job. I say might, because a couple good calls don't make a career. If she was so good at analyzing companies, she'd make a lot more money on proprietary trading, which is the tragedy of good analysis.
as long as we're on the topic of honesty.
A while back, when i was considered a "golden boy" in my young career in corporate america I was still a bit naive. I spoke my mind at a large company wide meeting about how what we were doing wasn't the best for the shareholders or our business. I was taken aside by a higher up and told, "you have a bright future here, as long as you stop being so honest".
The higher up was wrong about one thing. I had no future there. Corporate america has been best described as "daycare for adults". I left and have done alright since.
12th percentile
Sounds awfully familiar. Bless you!
FFDIC, truth to God, you got me thinking about the Suze Orman angle even before you left no room for doubt.
What abt layoffs??
Suze may be phony (O, the rumors of how she made her nut off her girlfriend!); but she's more likeable than Maria Bartiromo.
Orman changed her tune about real estate, but doesn't conduct on-air orgasms when the Dow goes triple-digit green, or in riposte to analysts who deny CNBC's cheerleading. And Suze didn't do a dirty "Citi."
Maria's impostors might take note. Page Six just reported that Erin Burnett's in a jam for more or less ripping from the MH playbook. Worse, she's bent on convincing you that she knows what she's talking about the economy.
"A surprising percentage of people who are willing to stand up and say "bullshit" are female (whistleblowers for the govt., sources for reporters etc.). I have no idea or pop psychology answer as to why."
I have worked in a male dominated field (mechanic)for the past 12 years at a few different companies. In each place women were never fully accepted as one of the guys. Why? A couple of examples may help explain:
I worked at a place where we had a real a--hole for a supervisor. All the males just dealt with it. One of the only two female mechanics believed that she was being treated poorly because she was a female and complained. Ironically, many believed that she was actually being treated with kid gloves by the supervisor. I left before the issue was resolved.
At the place I presently work there is a drop dead gorgeous secretary who crosses the shop floor a few times a day. When a group of males witnesses this, the typical juvenile comments are made. When a female is amongst the guys no such comments are made, some won't even look at the secretary.
Could it be a females inability to fully penetrate the male world, that allows/motivates them to become whistle blowers more readily?
(I would have changed the wording of the last sentence if there was a woman in the room while I wrote it.)
Umm... I think we're getting ahead of ourselves here saying whistleblowers are predominantly female (they might be, I just don't know). Firstly, an n=2 doesn't really make a great statistical sample.
Secondly, and I don't mean any disrespect to Ms. Whitney, but she isn't a whistleblower. She's just doing her goddamned job. The fact that her chosen profession has such a high proportion of hucksters and idiots that actually showing up and doing what you're ostensibly paid to do makes you a hero says more about her field than it does about her.
Hmmm, you have a bunch of guys looking up to the next guy (and the money he is making), and you wonder why it seems that women are usually the whistleblowers?
They are not part of the 'mens club', so to say. So they do not feel obligated to shut their mouths and toe the line.
Also, I generally think women can be more honest about something that a guy may not be so honest about. It has something to do with them speaking their mind, thinking that you actually care about what they are saying.
Until you don't like it. I think guys tend to avoid this in the pursuit of acceptance among the men who hold positions above them.
She called it pretty much on target, and they did not like it. Truth hurts, eh?
Brains and beauty, yes. But I still prefer brunette, which my wife is very happy about. Notice I used the singular there.
WSJ, Tuesday AM: Citigroup announced a net loss of $9.83 billion and $22 billion in write-downs and consumer credit losses. The bank is raising $12.5 billion through investments by Singapore's GIC, Kuwait Investment Authority and others.
This reminds me of something my sister (Berkley grad.-women's studies) said about Martha Stewart.
She said that men do what she was accused of doing all the time and that the Feds went after her because she's a powerful woman.
Hmmm?
Get a grip on the Whitney bio guys: private school/Brown/history degree/job in finance/fox commentator/elite analyst job. I don't know how many of you are a product of that privilege, but I do wish you would start thinking what the minimum expectations are of those who are.
And CR, I do lay the blame for the Whitney babe commentary at your feet. Boys will be boys, but your the man who keeps the boat level.
Agreed about Whitney's wasp pedigree, but even the over-privileged occasionally show flashes of character and courage.
And she was right about Citi. They've just posted the worst results ever for a major bank.
Citigroup Posts Record Loss on $18 Billion Writedown (Update6) - Bloomberg.com
othing better than a hot blond analyst....yum
Writedown of only $22B. So it's contained!
a bear:
Women do get away with murder...at least they do now anyway. May not have always been so....but society tends to over compensate a lot. But you already knew that.
Agreed about Whitney's wasp pedigree, but even the over-privileged occasionally show flashes of character and courage.
It shouldn't be a flash in the pan, that's my point exactly. Well that and the fact that the advantage of these individuals relative to the rest of the field is ignored as though it's irrelevant.
I'm not saying society should be otherwise, stratification being the way of the (grown-up) world. I just wish it would be acknowledged people could factor it into their interpretations of what their expectations are of themselves (and others).
A bear the truth of the matter is that women want to be paid like an equal and treated like women.
And toning down the comments when their are women around is part of the process. Hopefully out of respect, or because you wouldn't want someone to treat your mother/sister/daughter in such a manner. Any other reason (e.g., top down edicts) just builds resentment.
Anyway, I'll close, way off topic and this isn't what we are here for.
I'm a believer in the LT Perfect Market theory. One exception might be the ability to size up management. Buffet does it, takes control of the company and fires them if needed. Whitney sizes them up and reports.
Maybe that's the edge on the market. The ability to measure the ability of management without letting them know you're doing it and without becoming "one of them".
Hey--your video of the day is total hogwash.
I was watching the "Cost of Freedom Riders" on Fox this past Saturday morning and one of those large foreheaded total market geniuses said 2008 was going to be a great year for housing. You see it right--A GREAT YEAR FOR HOUSING!!!! They said that right after they blamed Obama's Iowa Caucus victory for causing the stock market to tank at the end of last week.
I believe everything I see on Fox so all of Jan's other statements are based on faux assumptions. He seems like a nice guy though. I'm sure he means well.
Now go out and shop some more so we can win this popular war that we started on faux assumptions.
Surge onward Freedom Riders!!!!!!!!
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Hello admin. After the neck injury he was in a coma for a while, perhaps a natural defense the body has? I hope Jackie is coping OK homes hows it going?! missing everyone so much sale which, stores, by