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What I can say is that I was getting Tanta-post withdrawal.... and yes, I think we could do with a real economy for a change!
Wanted
As well as the bizarre suggestion that real estate could support an actual market with, you know, buyers and sellers. This goes well beyond cough syrup.
as i understand it he says basel 2 will come in place in the us.
Wich very simple means you need money(security) to get a loan.
Can I use that $800 check from the government for a down payment?
Seriously if the government sends you a check, go buy nickles.
OT
MBIA and Ambac both now have market caps below $1 billion. Today, Ambac threw in the towel on keeping its AAA rating and seems resigned to try to survive as a lower-rated company. MBIA will probably follow suit.
Now, the story becomes...what are all those thinly-traded no-longer-so-insured bonds really worth?
Maybe the NAR could hire Beyonce to perform their own "upgrade" commercial enticing people to sell their plasma(blood or tv) and maybe a kid or two to raise capital to buy a rapidly depreciating asset despite the rest of MSM and common sense telling them not to.
OR...people could wait until prices fell back into a range of actual affordability.
hi Tanta! don't spoil your appetite by reading too much floyd norris, michi_doc is supposed to be bringing cake later!
You should switch to something nicer than cough syrup.
Doesn't it seem as if we're hearing the same things our depression-era parents and grandparents tried to drum into our heads? Debt is bad, save for your first home, etc.
Tanta,
Yes, definitely time to check into rehab! Not enough codeine laced cough syrup to solve this problem.
Real economy! Harrumph. We're an empire now. We create our own reality, and our own national bankruptcy. That's what great empires do. Just ask the British.
Joe
Economically speaking, homes are non-productive assets. In the same vein, so are sports stadiums, gambling casinos, and tourism.
In other words, big sectors of what most (especially civic 'leaders') think of as 'economic development' is merely shuffling dollars back and forth between pockets. But when you drink a lot of Kool-aid, this may not be so obvious.
A good, solid recession is necessary to help correct these market failures.
Many here prefer Tanta's cough syrup, but others will find it rather bitter.
Down payment? Who needs a DP? We have FHA for christsake!
Such a buyer will need a down payment from somewhere
If only we could figure this one out ... hmm ... it certainly is a head-scratcher! Floyd's Conundrum.
Let me check my cocktail napkins.
This article is really startling when you consider what was the de facto public belief in housing 3-4 years ago. My sister-in-law so eloquently stated at that time, "Everybody knows that housing never goes down!"
Hey, it's a Platonic ideal. The Ideal Home Buyer is also probably a perfect sphere and loves your interior decorating sense. And couch.
The discovery of plankton in the food chain! Wow!
Hey I'm a renter who has money for a down payment from "somewhere" yea from something called "saving" not to mention not jumping in on overpriced houses, payments I cant afford, or wacky loans.
Broken003, what is this "saving"?
I'm going to use my $800 along with some quarters from in the couch to buy a krugerrand.
Priceless ! Thanks Tanta.
I have a totally OT "priceless" today too - that aircraft crash-landing by a catastrophic loss of power in TWO engines as he came in to land at Thiefrow yesterday - and the pilot gets all this praise for averting disaster- I bet he ran out of gas. Priceless. And I'll eat pho every two days for 2 months if I turn out to be rong. Yeah, yeah this is connected to the story at hand - use some critical judgment when you read schlok horror stories in the press.
-K
My take on the article is that the ideal buyer is someone who hasn't been foolish enough to buy in the past and has, you know, real money. However, the problem is that buying a house (now) is a location trap as you'll be unable to move once all your money is real estate that you can't sell. Remember in real estate it is location, location, location. More than ever now because you'll be stuck in that location for a long time.
how come my cough syrup says Cuervo on the bottle? 'Hi Tanta
Down payments? I thought those came from the seller, via a non-profit?????
And my cough syrup says "Bushmill's" on the label.
I thought his best paragraph was the fourth from the end:
"It is possible that we will see a negative spiral, in which lower prices reduce the availability of loans, and thus push prices lower. That, in turn, could leave more homeowners unable to refinance exploding mortgages, producing more forced sales that push prices even lower and further reduce bank capital."
It reminded me of Galbraith's lines in The Great Crash:
"The Coolidge bull market was a remarkable phenomenon. The ruthlessness of its liquidation was, in its own way, equally remarkable."
He forgot good looking. The ideal buyer is smokin' hot. And wants to pay too much for your home.
Instead all we have are these cheapskates afraid to overpay and afraid of price declines and bankruptcy. Bitter renters who want value and an acknowledgment that they've been right for a while. We're never going to get anywhere with buyers like that.
Strange, my cough syrup is made in China. No worries, it's all placebo anyway.
Now all we need is a real economy, the theory works fine assuming that we have one. However it is sort of like the old joke where a scientist and engineer and an economist are trapped on a desert island with lots of canned goods, but no can opener. The scientise suggests that the build a big fire and put the cans in it so the watter inside boils and the pressure opens the cans. The engineer devises an elaborate catapult that will smash the cans against the rocks to open them. Then the economist speaks up and says: "First, assume a can opener"
"Hey, it's a Platonic ideal. The Ideal Home Buyer is also probably a perfect sphere and loves your interior decorating sense. And couch."
Nice, scav.
"It is possible that we will see a negative spiral . . ."
CR's virtuous cycle replaced by the vicious cycle?
And last observation: the stock market (the end all and be all of life) doesn't seem to like Dr. Bernanke or even GWB's free money anymore.
They better send that money, fast, to Florida; sales tax collections in December were 4.1% below '06:
http://dor.myflorida.com/dor/pdf/mcr1207.pdf
Six months in a row (all the data I have) of below-prior-year sales tax collections; average shortfall of 4.9%.
Has anyone read if there is a limit on who will get the $800 rebates?
What's never mentioned is the marginal effect of the first-time buyer; as soon as he buys in, his non-housing purchasing power drops dramatically. All across the land, new homebuyers are smothering our economy and redistributing cash to the banks rather than merchants.
Actually Jagermiester is the real cough suryp, stuff tastes just like Nyquil and has about the same alchahol content
Too funny, so many people wish we were still renting and still had our down payments back in our savings accounts. And we would just keep renting and feel smart. Too late it's gone forever.
I hope this Norris meme catches on, and the guvmint (and the candidates) think about subsidized downpayments for renters. Or maybe mortgages with payments that match one's current rent, no matter what the purchase price of the home you're buying. The difference paid by the US taxpayer, of course.
Drastic times require drastic market supports, don't they? I want in on this Canute Plan.
The catch for single households, for the $800 rebate, is, I believe I read last night, limited to those who make below $85k a year. And I had already chosen which ultrashort I was going to put the money (I'm now not going to get) in.
Looks like the "emergency rate cut rally has faded away.."
I will spend my $800 on the Carlton Sheets DVD's on real estate investing.
Such a buyer will need a down payment from somewhere...
Would you take a pony?
Guns and bullets for me
crispy - make sure you are actually going to be getting some here. I suspect many of us here on this blog will be going empty handed. All indications so far are that I am in that group. Sweet - no house, no bubble fun, no payout. Innit great? Try to do the right thing and not buy into a bubble, and whaddya get? You get your tax dollars trying to save the fools who did. Fortunately, it wont work, and I'll still be glad I didnt buy an overpriced house.
Thanks, Geoff. That sounds about right. I remember last time they did their little handout. I was sitting in the office with the other salesmen and they were all saying what they were going to do with the money then when it was my turn I told them I did not get one...silence.
brought to you by the same people who said Iraq would pay for its own reconstruction, which would be easy because there would be no ethnic/religious conflict and the Iraqis would throw candy at us for shocking and aweing their country with so many bombs dropped from the sky.
Pass the cough syrup.
Joe
OT
Based in part on Misean's advice, I too have bought some physical silver today. The idea is...there's a historic relationship between silver and gold that has broken down. Silver is way low compared to historic. All this stimulus and rate-cutting is inflationary, and all this misery is pushing money into hard assets.
If you are interested, the symbol is SLV. The price is about $16 and the target might be about $20-21 over a few months.
how difficult is it for a person with a recent FC record in his credit to get an rental apartment???
Joe, that is totally unfair. I mean, who could have seen that coming?
Geoff - Maybe I will steal my neighbors check then.
Also, for SLV isn't a majority of it technically destroyed by being used in producing things. Unlike GLD which is hoarded.
100 bottles of Southern Comfort.
A long-time bull throws in the towel
A long-time bull turns bearish Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch
"For the record: Sullivan's newsletter is in 4th place among the services the Hulbert Financial Digest has tracked over the last 25 years"
My condensation: Cash-rich Knife-catchers Wanted.
I think you have to see this stimulus as sheer and utter desperation at this point, especially from an election year Republic point of view (and no, that's not me.) Has Bush caved in to anything so against his "principles" ever before? I mean, what else in the world could you imagine where he would not be his usual stubborn self and basically make everyone squirm until he gets his way on making the tax cuts permanent. Something surely must have scared him to the point of crapping his pants, because this behavior has been absent for nearly 8 years.
Have I been drinking too much cough syrup?
If you've started the day reading that kind of stuff (Norris... grrrr) then that cough syrup better be loaded to the brim with codeine. Sumptins got ease that pain...
Real economy... what a concept.
On the back of the checks it should say: "JSP, life is too short to drink cheap beer".
Cough syrup.. I knew there was something I forgot to put on the apocalypse now supplies list.
Im a renter with a downpayment saved and there aint no way in hell I am buying in the DC area right now, probably not a year from now. It would be a bad investment.
I tell everyone I know the facts about the market and encourage them not to buy.
Realtors dont like talking to me after 5 minutes once they realize they cant trick me.
Have I been drinking too much cough syrup?
Yes, switch to the good stuff.
Has Bush caved in to anything so against his "principles" ever before?
Principles?
forgot to mention I saw a Realtor ad here in illinois today (Im on travel) and they said its "a great time to buy" "homes on avg. double in value every 10 years"
I almost broke the hotel TV.
Cuervo . . . Bushmill's . . . Jagermiester . . . Southern Comfort . . .
I see some of you shop at the same pharmacy I do.
From The HousingBubble Blog:
Anthony Clark, a bankruptcy attorney with offices in Mesa and Phoenix, said hes fielded a number of calls from homeowners asking how they can complete a foreclosure on their home rather than try to save it through bankruptcy proceedings.
Seems a little unusual, forcing a foreclosure on an unwilling lender.
That sounds like what we did in 1999. Now we are stuck in a starter (30-yo) townhouse with 2 kids and a yard the size of a postage stamp. Fortunately we have no pressing need to move and the schools are decent.
Our theoretical purchasing power is good, although for the past
7 years day care has been sucking an amount out of our budget greater than our housing payment.
And my cough syrup says "Bushmill's" on the label.
mort_fin | 01.18.08 - 11:26 am | #
My cough syrup comes from the bottom of a long tube with a pipe bowl on the side.
Oh wait, maybe that's what is causing the cough?
Such a buyer will need a down payment from somewhere...
You mean, something like cash? As in, a buyer bringing their own cash to the closing table?
What is this, some kind of pinko commie plot to subvert the perma-boom American Capitalist System?
=========
Rich - I understood Misean's ratio to show that gold was overpriced and bought puts on gold miners. Good luck, one of us will be right.
Has Bush caved in to anything so against his "principles" ever before?
I think that should be...
He doesn't do anything against his 'principals'...
southern comfort is the worst invention in the history of mankind. yuck.
southern comfort is the worst invention in the history of mankind.
Oh no it's not. The Shipwreck is the worst invention in the history of mankind.
(Where I grew up a Shipwreck is Southern Comfort and Peppermint Schnapps, OTR.)
you're right, that sounds much worse.
You mean, something like cash? As in, a buyer bringing their own cash to the closing table?
What is this, some kind of pinko commie plot to subvert the perma-boom American Capitalist System?
Actually Americans' lack of cash may bring back a pinko-commie period. If you don't have any money, you look to the government to give you some.
The 150 Billion stimulus package is still not a net ADDITION to the money supply since Aug 2007.
Deflation baby!
Anyone doubt that now?
Stocks tanking again. Even Buffett's recent purchases are down. That tells you that real fear is abroad.
A real economy? Now there's an idea. Unfortunately, we shipped ours off to China. Now who is going to buy that stuff if we don't have home equity to borrow against?
I prefer my syrup to be from the Speyside region of Scotland, 25 y/o+ if someone else is paying at the drugstore.
Gee, I'm a lucky ducky. Not burdened by a house. All I need to do is come up with $125,000 for a down payment. Piece of cake, right. Boy this irrational bubble sure put me on easy street.
oooh deflation...now that is a nasty word.
Ed,
No joke US exports are booming accross the board, there are container, equipment, and vessel slot shortages at pretty much every port in the country right now.
So SOMEBODY is buying, I just don't know what's going to be left when they're all done.
Brendan, Correction, you only need to save $124,200....come on now look on the bright side.
Pay cash or do without. It really is that simple. As I prophesied on another thread, this will be the year that we rediscover the virtue of savings and reserves and living within our means.
Isn't this just a little love note from Floyd to Dean Baker?
Saving, its the new spending
(very OT): Deep fried Mars bars is the second worst invention in the history of mankind. The worst is also Scottish -- it involves irons and is not curling.
I bought a house in 2003 foe $363K and sold it 2yrs and 10 days later for 612K.
LOL....it was great, been renting ever since....waiting for the next wave of retards to show up.
Two of my most memorable nights - actually the aftermath is what is recalled - the event is self was victim of the destroyed braincells - was due to Southern Comfort on one occasion and Jack Daniels on another.
To this day I can't stand to be in the same room when someone cracks open a bottle.
Now Jagermeister and Goldschlager or Rumplemintz - that's another story ...
(Where I grew up a Shipwreck is Southern Comfort and Peppermint Schnapps, OTR.)
Tanta | Homepage | 01.18.08 - 12:26 pm | #
I bet they go down great with Spamburgers... I'll be in Austin MN over the weekend and might have to check it out (and maybe not... 'fraid they might just come up as easily as they go down).
They need more suckers.
Cannot count on me!
I am waiting for a 30% price decline from the 20% I am seeing.
Got my savings using my head........
Jagermeister is the devil. Evil incarnate. It should be sold with bail money.
(very OT): ... second worst invention in the history of mankind. The worst is also Scottish -- it involves irons and is not curling.
John M
IRN BRU !
Irn-Bru - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
-K
I bought a modestly priced home for much less than I could afford 7 years ago. Now I have plenty of disposable income to buy "cough syrup" while all my over-extended friends are trying to sell and downsize. If you hold your nose, even a Shipwreck isn't so bad...
Tanta, thanks for making economics interesting, even for us liberal arts types...
Cuervo . . . Bushmill's . . . Jagermiester . . . Southern Comfort . . .
I see some of you shop at the same pharmacy I do.
Funny though, my Health Spending Account Plan debit card won't authorize these purchases for me....
Irn-Bru is nectar from the gods - don't disparage it!
And it's the world's best hangover cure - I kid you not. Always keep a bottle of it by the bed on Friday and Saturday to ward off much pain the next morning.
And glass bottles too - none of this plastic crap.
Any rotgut with Espresso or coffee (sweetened to taste) is heavenly, and makes your breath pleasant. Makes it even better if the vodka has been in the freezer for a little while and espresso is ice cold.
My choice Svenska Vodka, Giorgi if I am curtailing my spending.
Post-bubble market? He's still basking in the smoke of the after-sex cigarette. Just wait until the sun comes up.
I have been a long time proponent of precious metals, in fact I was one of the first to call the gold bottom at $250.
However, with deflation coming and the need to raise cash, I feel like the precious metals will be sold. I see gold and silver going down.
Just my opinion, not investment advice.
saving is the new black. and if by cough syrup...
A little speech that captures political doublespeak very admirably:
-Noah S. "Soggy" Sweat, Jr, 1952, The "Whiskey Speech"
If you mean whiskey, the devil's brew, the poison scourge, the bloody monster that defiles innocence, dethrones reason, destroys the home, creates misery and poverty, yea, literally takes the bread from the mouths of little children; if you mean that evil drink that topples Christian men and women from the pinnacles of righteous and gracious living into the bottomless pits of degradation, shame, despair, helplessness, and hopelessness, then, my friend, I am opposed to it with every fiber of my being.
However, if by whiskey you mean the oil of conversation, the philosophic wine, the elixir of life, the ale that is consumed when good fellows get together, that puts a song in their hearts and the warm glow of contentment in their eyes; if you mean Christmas cheer, the stimulating sip that puts a little spring in the step of an elderly gentleman on a frosty morning; if you mean that drink that enables man to magnify his joy, and to forget life's great tragedies and heartbreaks and sorrow; if you mean that drink the sale of which pours into our treasuries untold millions of dollars each year, that provides tender care for our little crippled children, our blind, our deaf, our dumb, our pitifully aged and infirm, to build the finest highways, hospitals, universities, and community colleges in this nation, then my friend, I am absolutely, unequivocally in favor of it. This is my position, and as always, I refuse to be compromised on matters of principle.
Too much cough syrup... not enough Kool-Aid, Tanta.
You of all people ought to know that you're never allowed to criticize or otherwise expose the real estate industrial complex to the cold, harsh, unrelenting light of reality!
How dare you, madam chairperson! Pistols at dawn!
Hmmm.... if "not owning a home, which may be hard to sell" is a big plus, why do I want to buy one?
However, the problem is that buying a house (now) is a location trap as you'll be unable to move once all your money is real estate that you can't sell. Remember in real estate it is location, location, location. More than ever now because you'll be stuck in that location for a long time.
Agreed, JKB.
Besides who'd buy now, when the convulsions (foreclosures, empty houses, crime) are just starting?
Even the intermediate term looks gloomy as many an exurban 'hood starts its transformation into The Hood.
Cf. this recent USC report arguing that retiring Boomers will flood the housing market, further depressing prices and leading to "blight and disrepair":
As baby boomers retire, home markets will hurt
It's tough to admit, but I miss Casey Serin.
The article makes sense if it is written from the perspective of a Realtor. My guess would be that Norris heard a Realtor make comments along these lines, thought they were some how insightful, and wrote a column centered around the Realtor's comments without bothering, or even seeing the need to, mention that it was from a Realtor's perspective.
If you want to monitor prices in the insured muni bond market next week, check VILPX. It's a $3 billion Vanguard fund that invests only in insured munis (int. and long-term) from all over. So far, it has held up pretty well, increasing in price over the past 3 months as interest rates fell. It closed at $12.58 per share on Friday.
There was some downward pressure on insured muni prices at the start of last summer, when the MBIA/Ambac problems emerged. But not much since.
He doesn't do anything against his 'principals'.Tactical Flashlights
r c helicopter
video game