I guess when you get to big to fail, who gives a crap what you do.

On another note, illegals may not be able to get mortgages soon if this new legislation is passed. Blogger: Page not found

Anthony, forgive me for not being very impressed by a website that thinks the abbreviation for Social Security Number is "SIN."

I can't wait to hear the explanation for how these people are scamming the system by voluntarily requesting an identification number from the IRS. Yeah, that's the first thing I'd do if I were hiding from the government: call the IRS to get a number to use to pay my taxes with.

The DOW has slid another 50 or so points today.

I wonder if it is going to get nickel and dimed by little drops every day - the kind of drops that don't make the front page, break the exchange network or activate the plunge protection team, but over time amount to some serious slide.

Bear market anyone?

thanks CR, Tanta, and everyone else— I have learned a lot from your posts.

My question is about Merrill Lynch & Co.

They manage my husbands 401K GIC funds, if they go under how does this effect those funds? Would then another Company take over managing them or would the funds go kaput?

—not sure how this works...any insight is appreciated.

stecc:

margin calls created by Wed sell off needs to be settled today.

VegasRadar, first, it is extremely unlikely that Merrill will "go under". I'm not familiar with the Merrill GIC plan, but it is probably guaranteed by some insurer - or insurers if it is a GIC mutual fund. You can probably check the prospectus to find out.

I'd never worry about financial Armegeddon - if things get bad enough to take Merrill under, all our investments are probably in trouble.

Best Wishes.

Hello,
what assets are standing against bond issuance of the investment banks?
Corporate securities, derivative positions, reverse repos. (I had a chance to take a look at the GL of one of these banks)
Can anyone tell me who/what is on the other side of the reverse repos? Hedge funds?

vagasrader,

Your husband's funds would not be directly affected (assuming they aren't invested in ML paper, etc.). The only way there would be a problem is if there was fraud, i.e. ML siphons funds illegally, which won't happen. As to the hassles of accessing/transfering in the event of a bankruptcy I can't say, but I would imagine it would be a royal pain. That having been said, I highly doubt ML (or GS or MS) is going bankrupt (though the equity might take a sizeable hit).

PoliticalCalculations has updated his methodology for calculating the probability of recession using the Wright model. It appears he is now using a rolling quarterly average of the daily rates (much better) and today he estimates the probability at about 50%.

Political Calculations

Jesus.....thank God I only do A paper.

The most important question for a non-RE investor is: Who is holding the Old Maids Cards (to borrow a Russ Winterism)? There are huge amounts of highly leveraged paper with alphabet soup names that seem to be in the process of being repriced to lower levels of risk and colateral value.

When this repricing occurs, major losses will be taken by somebody - however nobody seems to really know who. I have read vague suggestions such as pension plans or hegde funds but my fear is that the toxic paper may find it's way to unsuspecting places like money market and bond funds in retail accounts and 401(k) plans (like mine for example).

Does anyone have any suggestions as to whose pocketbook will ultimately get lighter when Joe Blow mails his house keys to his mortgage company? Risk can be diluted and moved around but not eliminated. Somebody is at risk.

Tanta, whoops I wrote SIN because I am from Canada originally. SIN in Canada is the Social Insurance Number.

Here is a biased article about the ITIN but it outlines some key point of why illegal aliens apply.
Center for Immigration Studies

There is no risk of deportation in receiving a ITIN as the IRS does not communicate with the INS.

I really think anyone who is unduly alarmed about the investment banks "going under" should ponder the implications of what is happening here. It isn't necessarily a bad thing if the trading desk wanders off the reservation like this, you know. I mean, they could still be drinking the Koolaid, which would just make whatever losses are in store for the IBs that much worse. Only a fool of a CEO, in my view, would decide that what we have here is a failure to communicate or something. What we have here is a kind of uprising amongst those who are now forced to choose between the ratings of their own company and the returns on their hedges (on which their own company's ratings depend). I suspect someone up the food chain will catch on long before anyone "goes under," although it appears that some bonuses might be sliding off the table.

Thanks for the update, Anthony. I was afraid you were one of those people who thinks that Social Security is a pact with the Devil. We have some of those folk on this side of the border.

$310,000 Mortgage Refinance for $999/Mo

That's the ad showing up right above the comment box for this site right now Wink

S&P Puts Fremont on Credit Watch

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said it is unclear why the Santa Monica, Calif.-based company will be late releasing its fourth quarter and full-year 2006 results.

"Our concerns are heightened due to the possible effects that a negative event could have on the company given the weak state of the subprime mortgage market," said S&P credit analyst Adom Rosengarten.

A "negative event"? Who would of thunk it!

Best to all.

National Mortgage News - What We're Hearing

National mtg news weekly "What we are hearing column", always a fun read on a Friday afternoon.

(note his comments about the ABX index, "thinly traded" = "not very relevant")

CR,

Fitch also downgraded their senior debt to B from B+ on Wednesday.

"While details have not been released, Fitch believes that more downside risk will materialize as a result of FMT's announcement pressuring FMT's financial flexibility" English translation: no one will touch their paper with a 10 foot pole, run do not walk to the nearest available exit.

Next week promises to be exciting. The week after that Bear and Lehman report. Don't change the channel.

Lender New Century lays off 4.4 pct of work force

New Century Financial Corp. (NEW.N: Quote, Profile , Research) has laid off 300 workers to cut costs, the subprime lender said on Friday, citing a "turbulent environment."

The firings at the company, one of the largest U.S. providers of home loans to less credit-worthy borrowers, were effective as of Thursday, New Century said in a statement.

The job cuts are equivalent to about 4 percent of New Century's work force.

"The turbulent environment that we're currently facing has caused us to carefully examine all alternatives that improve productivity while reducing costs," the company said in a statement. "Regrettably, layoffs are one such alternative."

S&P just downgraded NEW's debt to B from BB- and left it on CreditWatch with negative implications.

"We have growing concerns regarding the amount of financial stress facing New Century following the company's announcement that it will delay the release of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2006 results, as well as the restatement of
the first three quarters of 2006. In a residential mortgage market where
investors and other participants are rapidly losing confidence, it may be a
challenge for the company to work through current credit trends..."

Doesn't sound like they like whatever they have heard from NEW. Monday should be interesting.

Meanwhile, Coast Bank added $21MM to the ALLL and has declared that that's that.

According to Mike Ruffino, interim chairman of Coast Financial Holdings Inc., "The recording of this provision is the result of the extensive analysis the company has undertaken on impairment and potential default issues related to this portfolio. We believe that the allowance we recorded will adequately provide for any losses arising from these construction-to-permanent and related loan portfolios, while maintaining an adequately capitalized bank."

Riiiiiight.

Expired

Tanta,

$14MM on the loans involving CCI, which is about a 13% haircut if memeory serves. Given what scratch and dent loans are going for on completed, habitable structures unemcumbered by liens from the subcontractors, that sounds a little optimistic. Wonder if that includes a litigation reserve?

New Century NT 10K is out

Brian, I'm just guessing that they ran into some obscure regulatory rule that says once your ALLL reaches 50% of your portfolio assets, you have to mail the keys to the bank to the FDIC.

From what I've read, $21MM might fund the litigation reserve. Now, about those cracking concrete pads--I mean houses--with the mechanics' liens . . .

Here are few tidbits, more to follow:

In connection with the restatement process, the Audit Committee of the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Audit Committee”), advised by its independent counsel who is assisted by forensic accountants, has initiated its own independent investigation into the issues giving rise to the Company’s need to restate its 2006 interim financial statements, as well as issues pertaining to the Company’s valuation of residual interests in securitizations in 2006 and prior periods.

In addition, the Company is determining the amount of the adjustment to the estimated fair value of its residual interests in securitizations to reflect revised prepayment, cumulative loss and discount rate assumptions with respect to the mortgage loans underlying these assets. The Company is revising the assumptions to reflect relevant data such as recent loss experience, changing market conditions and updated expectations regarding higher credit losses and faster prepayment speeds.

KPMG has informed the Company that, among other matters, it will need to be informed of the results of the Audit Committee’s investigation and the results of the Company’s negotiations with its credit providers for covenant waivers and amendments as described in Part IV before completing its audit.

. The Company currently expects that it will report a pretax loss for both the fourth quarter and the full year ended December 31, 2006.

These negative trends in results compared to 2005 are attributable primarily to:

1.\tLower Net Gain on Sale – The Company’s net gain on sale of its mortgage loans declined over the course of 2006 due primarily to (i) increased exposure to repurchased loans from whole loan buyers, (ii) increases in the percent of loans rejected by whole loan investors during their due diligence review prior to purchase and (iii) increasing severity of loss upon disposition of repurchased and other loans in discounted loan sales.

2.\tReduction in Carrying Value of Residual Assets – The Company expects to record an adjustment to the estimated fair value of its residual interests in securitizations to reflect revised prepayment, cumulative loss and discount rate assumptions with respect to the mortgage loans underlying these residual interests.

3.\tReduction in Carrying Value of Mortgage Loans Held for Sale – The Company expects to record a lower-of-cost-or-market valuation allowance reflecting the Company’s current estimate of the fair value of its inventory of mortgage loans held for sale, which is lower than the Company’s cost basis in those loans. This fair value estimate reflects changes in market conditions.

4.\tAllowance for Losses on Loans Held for Investment – The Company expects to record an increase in its allowance for losses on its portfolio of loans held for investment reflecting relevant data such as recent loss experience, changing market conditions and updated expectations regarding higher credit losses and faste

Yeah, that's definitely less than half of what they're in for. They also have other exposures. Guess they're still trolling for suckers!

Holy crap doesn't begin to describe it, Pablo. CR, read that FMT statement!

Jim:
Risk can be diluted and moved around but not eliminated. Somebody is at risk.

All other dimensions being equal, when risk is overly discounted (thanks Greenspan), yield is overpriced. If yield is overpriced, then minimizing yield would reduce your sensitivity to that variable changing. Yield-chasing zombies are probably holding the bag. And I'm sure the faster moving money is in the process of quickly handing the zombies even more bags. But that's just me -- I don't take bags from strangers.

Only 6 of 11 lenders have waived the profitability requirement so far. They have asked that it been waived for the entire year. KPMG raises the going concern opinion if they don't get the waivers. Criminal investigation. Yikes.

". Because of the previously announced restatement, the Company obtained written waivers from its various lenders with respect to compliance with this delivery requirement through March 15, 2007. If, as may occur, the Company does not file its restated financial statements for the quarters ended March 31, June 30 and September 30, 2006 and the 2006 Form 10-K on or before March 15, 2007, the Company will seek to obtain additional written waivers from its various lenders with respect to this delivery requirement.

In addition, 11 of the Company’s 16 financing arrangements require it to report at least $1 of net income for any rolling two-quarter period. The Company expects that it will not meet this requirement for the two-quarter period ended December 31, 2006. As a result, the Company is seeking to obtain waivers with respect to this covenant.

To date, six of the Company’s 11 financing arrangements whose agreements contain this rolling two-quarter net income covenant have executed waivers. Certain of these waivers will become effective when the Company receives similar waivers from each of the other lenders having the rolling two-quarter net income covenant.

In addition, where applicable, the Company is seeking amendments to its financing arrangements to modify this rolling two-quarter net income covenant for the remainder of 2007. Although there can be no assurance that the Company will receive these amendments and waivers from all of its lenders, the Company is in active dialogue with these lenders and has made progress in this regard.

In the event the Company is unable to obtain satisfactory amendments to and/or waivers of the covenants in its financing arrangements from a sufficient number of its lenders, or obtain alternative funding sources, KPMG has informed the Audit Committee that its report on the Company’s financial statements will include an explanatory paragraph indicating that substantial doubt exists as to the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern.

The staff of the SEC has requested a meeting with the Company to discuss the events leading up to the announcement of the restatements and the Company intends to comply with the SEC’s request.

On February 28, 2007, the Company received a letter from the United States Attorney’s Office for the Central District of California (the “U.S Attorney’s Office”) indicating that it was conducting a criminal inquiry under the federal securities laws in connection with trading in the Company’s securities, as well as accounting errors regarding the Company’s allowance for repurchase losses. The U.S. Attorney’s Office is requesting voluntary assistance by the Company, which the Company has agreed to provide."

Oh, man, how long can New Century stay afloat?

The voluntary C&D for Fremont should cause havoc in the markets next week. Even Mama, Papa and Baby Bear might be reading that one.

FMT Exiting the residential subprime business! Ha!

Where is our resident French existentialist to quote us a few lines from "No Exit"?????

Fremont AEs now have to do 1 million volume for March or they are gone according to this thread at Broker Universe
Mortgage Grapevine: New NEWS concerning FREMONT

All we need is DeForest Kelley (sp?) to come out and say "It's dead, Jim!"

I asked the question earlier as to who holds risk. Just for fun I checked the VIP Investment Grade Bond Fund in a Fidelity retirement program. Sounds like a widows and orphans fund - right. The following are percentage portfolio holdings.

MBS Passthrough 29.7
ABS 11.4
CMBS 10.0
CMO 8.3
Net Other Assets -18.0
Futures, Options & Swaps 18.8

I don't know what a minus 18% "Net Other Assets" means unless a short position but this fund seems extremely sensitive to mortgage products. I wonder how safe it is for retirement accounts - I don't know, just wonder.

$310,000 Mortgage Refinance for $999/Mo

That's the ad showing up right above the comment box for this site right now Wink

Inhale deeply, FB's, this looks to be your last hit of crack before the police bust the door in and drag everyone off to the hoosegow.

I'd like to hear opinions on how likely it is that the subprime meltdown will prove contagious and impact corporate debt, junk bonds, etc. If a problem develops, what will it look like? And if it happens do we need a trigger event, or will it just be a long slow slide?

Question?

What insurance companies insure the CDS and how do those insurance companies invest and what do they invest in?

I am getting this sinking feeling that the insurers are invested in the derivative markets.

As I watch the credit and debt markets, I feel like I am watching the guy at the circus with the spinning plates balanced on top of the slim sticks/rods. As I watch, the man's hands move frantically up to each plate to make it spin faster and faster.

I do not think that this will end well.

Will the majority once again have to pay the price for the greed of the few?

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