Shouldn't you divide this by employment to try and normalize this. A 350,000
level of claims is now a smaller share of employment then it was a decade ago
so it is not a severe negative or positive.
spencer, that is reasonable and we have discussed this before. I don't think this indicator matters that much - it's just a hint - so I don't think we have to adjust by total employment. Besides total employment hasn't changed much since 2001 (up 3.5%), so maybe we are looking for 360K instead of 350K.
As others have noted here in earlier threads, many of the people losing their jobs due to real estate market decline (esp. illegal aliens) either are not eligible for or cannot (practically) file for unemployment insurance.
Almost all of the net job growth that has occurred over the past five years has been in services, which tend to have soft work hours, or involve independent contractors.
Workers in those industries are less likely to get fired or laid off, they just get scheduled for fewer hours of work, which results in fewer unemployment claims, either from underemployment or due to workers quitting.
While the total number of workers is growing, it's possible that the pool of workers that are most likely to claim unemployment insurance when jobless is actually shrinking, which would increase the sensitivity of the claims trend.
It is quite an unreliable metric in terms of revisions alone, no? The well publicized losses in the auto industry and manufacturing suggest that this stat should be rising. But the official releases purport to measure offsetting gains in other sectors, professional services in particular. Incredibly, within that sector, rising real estate growth. Which could be true as those terminated auto workers decide that a 6 week RE licence might be worth the trouble.
But the offsetting job gain here masks the reality that the lost manufacturing job is equal to the new real estate job. Not really.
Neglecting to account for this character fosters the view that the economy is still growing and healthier than it is.
Similarly the Owners Equivalent Rent masks the size and importance of housing market on the CPI which keeps government entitlement payments lower, but overstates your capacity to spend when that housing market which has supported all that consumption, is declining. [Are we starting to see this in the credit card numbers?]
To calmo's point, last week I ran into a local contractor who had done a significant addition /renovation on my house about 8 years ago -- he had just gotten his real estate license. Handed me some of his freshly-printed cards (complete with perfs on the edges).
I couldn't bring myself to say anything about it - just a weak smile and "hey, good luck."
Too bad - he was a really good builder.
So yeah, I guess there are some people still joining the real estate business. Unbelievable as that seems to me.
Why should the unemployment claims be given much weight? In times of high employment there can be lots of layoffs, and in times of high unemployment there can be few layoffs.
most of the posts here are saying why unemployment claims don't matter because many people were hoping that they would come in in way higher than expected. if they came in higher than expected you can bet everyone who is now downplaying the unemployment claims would be highlighting them as proof of softness in the labor market.
Why should we give the unemployment stats much weight?
Partly because it is this number in our face, a marketing artifact with a history of being in our face.
Partly because we just love to squeeze anything and revel in "tightening" or "loosening" whatever fleshy thing you put out there. [Check out interest rates and see if it ain't so.] We B not Masters of the Universe yet, but clearly, we own the title, Master Squeezers.
charts is right. If unemployment stats bulged to 5%, we would know that real staggering unemployment levels had even spread to the BLS for this erroneous bulge to have escaped their notice.
Locally (retirement destination on the SE coast of NC), housing construction was down 18% in 2006 compared to 2005 yet the number of RE agents was UP 30%. Some local for profit school keeps churning them out.
ken melvin said: "Why should the unemployment claims be given much weight? In times of high employment there can be lots of layoffs, and in times of high unemployment there can be few layoffs..."
They shouldn't. It's just another "noisy" indicator with wild swings that are often misinterpreted as significant. Any meaningful changes in conditions will show up in non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
JMO, but I think a lot of people are misinterpreting economic indicators. For example, real GDP averages 3%-3.5% over long periods of time and typically swings between 2% and 4%. So if GDP in one quarter is 3.5% and 2.5% in the next, so what? Like the stock market, it fluctuates.
Residential construction is notoriously "noisy", with huge fluctuations even in times of expansion. Another economic indicator that seems to be given more economic forecasting validity than it actually has.
Residential construction is notoriously "noisy", with huge fluctuations even in times of expansion. Another economic indicator that seems to be given more economic forecasting validity than it actually has.
I very strongly disagree with that.
I've had a number of large multi-nationals mfgrs tell me residential construction is a HUGE driver of demand and that 'housing starts' are a very good indicator.
And I'm not talking just about construction products either - think appliances, lawn & garden, small engines and even consumables.
The mfgrs compensate for the noise by smoothing (moving averages & such)... but this metric is a very strong predictors of other activities.
I learned this when I was supplying the guts for a washing machine transmission & was trying to forecast... the supply chain guy I was calling on told me: "Watch housing starts - they are huge. Washing machines last approximately 15 years... so to find the replacement number divide the number of owner households by 15 and multiply by market share and you have that number... then add to it the housing starts times market share and you have the 'new business'. Add the two & you have your forecast."
At the peak of the boom (2004-2005)... it turns out they were running about 500-600K units replacement and about 800-1000K units new business. I have lost touch since some of the product I supplied went offshore... but have heard through the grapevine new business is way down (25% at least) and still dropping.
Historically new biz & replacement were about equal magnitude so it could drop a lot if it falls to trend line.
Similar situation happens with 'services'... lawn services, insurance, etc. Closely coupled to 'starts'. Build a house, lay sod & irrigation, call lawn service... ding, ding, ding.
Don't underestimate the shadow housing throws. Its big.
First!
Seems the magic number at the beginning of the last two recessions was about 360k.
Is there a reason for this threshold?
Shouldn't you divide this by employment to try and normalize this. A 350,000
level of claims is now a smaller share of employment then it was a decade ago
so it is not a severe negative or positive.
spencer, that is reasonable and we have discussed this before. I don't think this indicator matters that much - it's just a hint - so I don't think we have to adjust by total employment. Besides total employment hasn't changed much since 2001 (up 3.5%), so maybe we are looking for 360K instead of 350K.
Best Wishes.
As others have noted here in earlier threads, many of the people losing their jobs due to real estate market decline (esp. illegal aliens) either are not eligible for or cannot (practically) file for unemployment insurance.
Almost all of the net job growth that has occurred over the past five years has been in services, which tend to have soft work hours, or involve independent contractors.
Workers in those industries are less likely to get fired or laid off, they just get scheduled for fewer hours of work, which results in fewer unemployment claims, either from underemployment or due to workers quitting.
While the total number of workers is growing, it's possible that the pool of workers that are most likely to claim unemployment insurance when jobless is actually shrinking, which would increase the sensitivity of the claims trend.
It is quite an unreliable metric in terms of revisions alone, no? The well publicized losses in the auto industry and manufacturing suggest that this stat should be rising. But the official releases purport to measure offsetting gains in other sectors, professional services in particular. Incredibly, within that sector, rising real estate growth. Which could be true as those terminated auto workers decide that a 6 week RE licence might be worth the trouble.
But the offsetting job gain here masks the reality that the lost manufacturing job is equal to the new real estate job. Not really.
Neglecting to account for this character fosters the view that the economy is still growing and healthier than it is.
Similarly the Owners Equivalent Rent masks the size and importance of housing market on the CPI which keeps government entitlement payments lower, but overstates your capacity to spend when that housing market which has supported all that consumption, is declining. [Are we starting to see this in the credit card numbers?]
To calmo's point, last week I ran into a local contractor who had done a significant addition /renovation on my house about 8 years ago -- he had just gotten his real estate license. Handed me some of his freshly-printed cards (complete with perfs on the edges).
I couldn't bring myself to say anything about it - just a weak smile and "hey, good luck."
Too bad - he was a really good builder.
So yeah, I guess there are some people still joining the real estate business. Unbelievable as that seems to me.
Why should the unemployment claims be given much weight? In times of high employment there can be lots of layoffs, and in times of high unemployment there can be few layoffs.
most of the posts here are saying why unemployment claims don't matter because many people were hoping that they would come in in way higher than expected. if they came in higher than expected you can bet everyone who is now downplaying the unemployment claims would be highlighting them as proof of softness in the labor market.
Why should we give the unemployment stats much weight?
Partly because it is this number in our face, a marketing artifact with a history of being in our face.
Partly because we just love to squeeze anything and revel in "tightening" or "loosening" whatever fleshy thing you put out there. [Check out interest rates and see if it ain't so.] We B not Masters of the Universe yet, but clearly, we own the title, Master Squeezers.
charts is right. If unemployment stats bulged to 5%, we would know that real staggering unemployment levels had even spread to the BLS for this erroneous bulge to have escaped their notice.
Locally (retirement destination on the SE coast of NC), housing construction was down 18% in 2006 compared to 2005 yet the number of RE agents was UP 30%. Some local for profit school keeps churning them out.
ken melvin said: "Why should the unemployment claims be given much weight? In times of high employment there can be lots of layoffs, and in times of high unemployment there can be few layoffs..."
They shouldn't. It's just another "noisy" indicator with wild swings that are often misinterpreted as significant. Any meaningful changes in conditions will show up in non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
JMO, but I think a lot of people are misinterpreting economic indicators. For example, real GDP averages 3%-3.5% over long periods of time and typically swings between 2% and 4%. So if GDP in one quarter is 3.5% and 2.5% in the next, so what? Like the stock market, it fluctuates.
Residential construction is notoriously "noisy", with huge fluctuations even in times of expansion. Another economic indicator that seems to be given more economic forecasting validity than it actually has.
BWDIK?
Sebastia
Residential construction is notoriously "noisy", with huge fluctuations even in times of expansion. Another economic indicator that seems to be given more economic forecasting validity than it actually has.
I very strongly disagree with that.
I've had a number of large multi-nationals mfgrs tell me residential construction is a HUGE driver of demand and that 'housing starts' are a very good indicator.
And I'm not talking just about construction products either - think appliances, lawn & garden, small engines and even consumables.
The mfgrs compensate for the noise by smoothing (moving averages & such)... but this metric is a very strong predictors of other activities.
I learned this when I was supplying the guts for a washing machine transmission & was trying to forecast... the supply chain guy I was calling on told me: "Watch housing starts - they are huge. Washing machines last approximately 15 years... so to find the replacement number divide the number of owner households by 15 and multiply by market share and you have that number... then add to it the housing starts times market share and you have the 'new business'. Add the two & you have your forecast."
At the peak of the boom (2004-2005)... it turns out they were running about 500-600K units replacement and about 800-1000K units new business. I have lost touch since some of the product I supplied went offshore... but have heard through the grapevine new business is way down (25% at least) and still dropping.
Historically new biz & replacement were about equal magnitude so it could drop a lot if it falls to trend line.
Similar situation happens with 'services'... lawn services, insurance, etc. Closely coupled to 'starts'. Build a house, lay sod & irrigation, call lawn service... ding, ding, ding.
Don't underestimate the shadow housing throws. Its big.