'There was downward pressure from bad weather,' said Ellen Zentner, an economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. `It drove people toward the cold-weather merchandise on which prices are generally slashed by February.' "
Before this report, economists HAD been predicting a 3.2 increase for 07Q1, as opposed to the previous quarter's 4.2 (which contributed mightily to 06Q4 GDP). It's beginning to look as if the vaunted U.S. consumer might not hold up his/her end of the this quarter's GDP bargain.
I'll go out on a limb and say 2.2, which translates into approx. a 1.5% contribution to GDP, not nearly enough to offset the drag we'll see from GDPI, which contributed -2.78 last quarter and has only gotten worse this quarter.
Imports/Exports were good in January, but that was before February's big runup in gasoline. Unless GWB spent A LOT this quarter, Roubini's call many months ago may actually come close this quarter.
"Describing the firm's buying activity as an example of "the fee foxes guarding the mortgage hen house, " CreditSights, an independent firm specializing in corporate cash flow and balance sheet analysis, slammed Bear for having subprime loans that have experienced extensive payment troubles and defaults, and "stood out in terms of weaker performance.""
A naive question - Are these sales numbers ever normalized for population growth ? Similar to how growth in employment is discussed against a background expectation of 100-150K new jobs/month, to account for people entering the market. My rough take is the US adds 3M people per year, which is 1% of our total 300M population. So seems like 1% should come right off the top of any sales numbers. Please inform.
My GDP sentiments, exactly. CPI will give a better, though hardly perfect, notion of how much of February retail sales will evaporate in the translation to real personal consumption spending. Downward revisions to December and January sales figures are a big part of the damage that winjr identifies.
It was the weather, as always...
U.S. February Retail Sales Rise 0.1%; Decline Excluding Autos - Bloomberg.com
" `Bad Weather'
'There was downward pressure from bad weather,' said Ellen Zentner, an economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. `It drove people toward the cold-weather merchandise on which prices are generally slashed by February.' "
Before this report, economists HAD been predicting a 3.2 increase for 07Q1, as opposed to the previous quarter's 4.2 (which contributed mightily to 06Q4 GDP). It's beginning to look as if the vaunted U.S. consumer might not hold up his/her end of the this quarter's GDP bargain.
I'll go out on a limb and say 2.2, which translates into approx. a 1.5% contribution to GDP, not nearly enough to offset the drag we'll see from GDPI, which contributed -2.78 last quarter and has only gotten worse this quarter.
Imports/Exports were good in January, but that was before February's big runup in gasoline. Unless GWB spent A LOT this quarter, Roubini's call many months ago may actually come close this quarter.
If it wasn't for the increase in gas prices, the headline number would have been negative.
Check out this NY Post piece ripping Bear Sterns.
BEAR MINIMUM - NYPOST.com
"Describing the firm's buying activity as an example of "the fee foxes guarding the mortgage hen house, " CreditSights, an independent firm specializing in corporate cash flow and balance sheet analysis, slammed Bear for having subprime loans that have experienced extensive payment troubles and defaults, and "stood out in terms of weaker performance.""
A naive question - Are these sales numbers ever normalized for population growth ? Similar to how growth in employment is discussed against a background expectation of 100-150K new jobs/month, to account for people entering the market. My rough take is the US adds 3M people per year, which is 1% of our total 300M population. So seems like 1% should come right off the top of any sales numbers. Please inform.
winjr,
My GDP sentiments, exactly. CPI will give a better, though hardly perfect, notion of how much of February retail sales will evaporate in the translation to real personal consumption spending. Downward revisions to December and January sales figures are a big part of the damage that winjr identifies.
Those 3 million people have a significant lower income than the average American so 1% is still an increase