Everyone is screwed - US consumers, Subprimes, he named New and Ameriquest, first time homebuyers, etc.. - EXCEPT CFC. "At the end of the day, this is all great news for CFC".
He mentioned the liquidity crunch a couple of time and lobbyied for rate cuts.
Ah, AllenM, you have answered my question from the previous cycle.
Of course. The euro is holding its own, because...
The pressure on Ben to lower rates is growing rather rapidly each day.
I will be exceedingly interested, interested beyond measure, to hear whether he repeats the old bromides about fears of inflation the next time he opens his mouth.
If he does, that means he really and truly fears a run on the dollar. A really bad run.
I saw most of it, but couldn't get past his creepy suntan. No wonder they call him leatherface. All personal attacks aside, insider stock sales notwithstanding, he pretty much did a cya on the whole issue. Never once will he acknowledge the one critical assumption (house prices always go up) that underpinned his whole business. Instead he justified his efforts to push up minority homeownership, an utter crock of a copout. Really, all you need to know about these people is that they sold assets to people on margin, at the top of an asset price peak that was clearly unsustainable, in loan structures that only did NOT end up in foreclosure if you wish away the one thing you absolutely do know about the market. House prices cannot keep going up if incomes and rents arent moving in tandem.
Just how long are we supposed to ignore that reality and listen to their BS?
"Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin said in a statement that the securities division of his office subpoenaed UBS AG of Switzerland's (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile , Research) UBS Securities LLC and Bear Stearns Cos. Inc. (BSC.N: Quote, Profile , Research) concerning research analysis of subprime lenders, including New Century Financial Corp. (NEWC.PK: Quote, Profile , Research).
"A global settlement of conflicts by research analysts at investment houses in 2003 set rules for independent analysis. Recent revelations that research analysts issued positive reports on mortgage lenders to those with less than solid credit ratings even as those companies faced more and more defaults suggests that the commitment of 2003 has not been met," Galvin said."
can you say "Conflict of interest"?
How can any ratings they do be taken seriously after this?
The other thing that cracked me up in the interview, was the part about how this will ensure Fed rate cuts, and that will save the day in housing. And of course, CFC will be the one who comes out on top of all this mess.
And because of this, Ive sold 5 mil worth of my stock the past few days. Uh, what's that stink?
Geoff,
Excellent comment. But, believe you me, all the stuff about, "Give me your downtrodden, your weak and poor..." is only a very direct appeal to Congress to keep the moneylenders out of debtors prison.
It is not the illegal aliens who are crying about how unfair it all is, it's the boys who made the big bucks.
He whined about all the poor people who would not be able to refinance their owns if the standards are tightened. But Angie baby: why did you sell them a mortgage they couldn't service out of their income? Don't you know it's predatory lending to lend someone money knowing that the only way they can pay the loan back is to take out another loan?
He's right about the consequences: Bankruptcy for millions. But he's wrong about the cause: Look in the mirror, Angelo!
If law-makers want to help those who bought houses and now can not pay for them they have to take it via taxes from those who made money from selling their homes and from mortgae bank excecs who use their company stock buy back to buy their own selling of excersized stock options
I can't believe he used th ephrase "liquidity crisis." That's going to be the quote that's repeated. It could well become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Oops!
Cramer has been spouting the tightening of lending standards as 'taking away the loan from the working man' crap.
Noooooo it's overinflated housing prices that forced the working man into putting over 50% of his income and uber-low interest rates that caused the necessity of such loans to exist. And all of these people, Cramer included, made a ton of money in the meantime. Now the party may be over.
Tough crap Cramer! When the working man can afford a house on no more than 30% of take home then his whole financial life might not be on the line.
People like Mozilo and Cramer really make me angry. I'm not sure either of them really care about the working man.
He said that it is good that sub-prime lenders are gone but he wants to keep the sub-prime loan programs. It will be good for CFC although CFC does not do more than 7% sub-prime.
Our betters have been promoting debt as a way of keeping from paying us more wages or letting the US decline into a lower standard of living as the alternative.
So 93% of CFC's loans aren't among those types causing all the fuss?
What percentage of that 93% who supposedly obtained these low risk mortgages were able to sell their existing house (and move up with that big fat down payment) to one of those buyers with that crazy exotic stuff? And more importantly, how many will be able to move up in the future?
Everyone says they are immune/isolated from subprime, yet they all agree that prices were artificially high as a result of this funny money. How can it affect housing on the way up but not on the way down?
Want to see a real Dollar Rally, Gold Collapse, and yes, a Rally in the Long END Maturities?
Ben, develop some gonads like P Volker and unannounced, RAISE the Funds rate to 5.50%.
Forget about the Subprime implosion, it's history. The FED can't save the subprime end of the market by LOWERING Rates....home prices are going down even if rates were lowered to 1% funds.
Claims that the sub-prime crisis is an affliction to working families are beneath contempt. As others have noted, it is the unaffordability of housing that is the problem and to suggest otherwise, particularly by patronizing the poor and minorities, is nothing more than a PR tactic to deflect blame from those who aided and abetted the obscene speculation in U.S. housing that has left so many people in a financial crisis.
he has struck me as being more realistic than most in his prognostications, called a hard landing a year ago, too bad people didn't listen and sell their shares like he did
Risking the old fifteen yard penalty for piling on, let me just remind everyone that CFC has "maintained profitability" over the years by being utterly ruthless about firing and laying off its employees at the first sign of a "liquidity crisis." Listening to Angelo blather on about the poor old workin' stiffs is like listening to Chainsaw Al Dunlap talk about employee morale.
Ok, I was headed for the tanning salon, but not any more.
I'm gettin the hang of the real meaning of "no skin in the game"...the appearance of skin...talk about over-exposure.
I must say mikail you make uncommonly good sense to me...sorta (this is as good as it gets with me).
BB takes the high road --exacerbating the mortgage rates in this "tightening" process (against current trends which see slightly lower mortgage rates as mortgage volume unwinds, yes?) or does the inverted yield curve deepen...showing the Fed to be less than the competent body we were hoping for?
Or he takes the low road hoping to ignite the carry trade without enflaming a run on the dollar?
Or he stays put and hopes that the damage is containable, all 4? 5? years of it...and buyers of tbills are patient, understanding and forgiving.
So what sort of fire power does the Fed have? I know, 525bps of fire power (which isn't enough if the last down cycle in '01 was any indication) but humor me here. Back in Jan '01 Fed Funds was 6.5% and a Euro cost $0.90. Europe is raising rates and the Fed may be dumb enough to cut rates to save some people who should have known better than to take out such crazy loans (I realize there were some people who got "taken" in this subprime sham). A Euro now costs $1.32. There will be a huge run on the US$ if they cut rates quickly in an attempt to save borrowers (or Lenders depending on where the men & women of Congress got money for their PACs). I just don't see how Ben threads the needle on this one. Not to mention creating more moral hazard...as if they really care. It's time people pay the piper. Of course, unlike crappy dot.com stocks, houses & debt don't disappear. We could be wearing this crap for years to come.
Why is Gold trading down by the way? Shouldn't there be a flight to it? I don't get it.
Angelo doesn't bother me. He started the company from scratch, he's 68 and cashing out. I don't blame him. He only let subprime get to 7%, while the nutballs NEW and NFI went crazy with risk. As I said a couple of days ago, LEND was the highest house on the flooding street, well the flood took them out. CFC lives way up the hill and they will survive, and with little competition they will do well. His point about the inability of first time home buyers to now buy a house is spot on. That will drive the coming recession. If you are a young family with a house and are ready to move up, who are you going to sell to? The entire real estate system is freezing up as we blog. Wall Street finally connected the dots on the home builders today. The next couple of weeks/months are going to be ugly for the markets.
Fed rate cuts? If the fed cuts the dollar collapses and the yen carry trade explodes. Which kills the markets. Greenie and left Beardface in a brutal position....
JBA, it doesnt matter that he only let subprime get to 7%. The fact is he lent people rope, and now they are hanging themselves. What pisses me off about the whole lending industry is that they marketed the rope as the American dream. But it was just a noose in disguise.
When they lent the rope, it wasnt just to subprime - it was to a whole load of others who were taken in by the industry's BS. "Buy now or be priced out forever." If you believe that, and you act on it, and you dont have the downpayment and you cant really afford the fully amortized payment, you just have to either be stupid, greedy, or really optimistic and with great timing. There's nothing wrong with wanting a home, even if it's not a great investment. I know it's not a great one (in normal times) but Id still like one one day where I know I'll settle down. Fortunately I know that wont be for a few years now. But I dont feel bad for wanting a home. Id feel pretty stupid if I listened to the industry's advice the past few years and put my hard earned cash into a sinkhole at their advice/fearmongering.
For those who honestly believed their BS, and just wanted to be a homeowner one day, who were forced into the market by fear, well, I feel sorry for those folks. I dont think they necessarily deserve a bailout, but the people who lent to them deserve an arsekicking. For anyone who tried to take advantage of this, well, who can blame them. Some won bigtime and cashed out, some are about to get a castiron pan to the face. For those who fraudulently benefited, I hope they end up in jail. But dont forget, not everyone went into this with the same intentions. Unfortunately, you cant decide how to compensate punish each one on an individual basis. That's what really sucks. Many of the people who benefited from fraud will never be caught, and many hardworking (if financially illiterate) people will end up holding the bag. Given how many supposedly financially savvy people didnt see this trainwreck coming, you cant really expect J6P to get it.
You have to know though, that everyone in the industry who had made it to upper mgmt had to be well aware that they were milking this to the hilt and that it was clearly unsustainable. And they also had to know that the bagholders would largely be the people who bought in the last few years, since they knew the MBS would soak up some risk and disperse it, and they woudl eventually be dropped like a bad habit once Wall Street gave the say so.
It should have never ever gotten this out of hand. I seriously believe that Alan Greenspan will eventually have a legacy in economics to match that of George Bush in politics - that of a corrupt, disingenuous fool.
CNN.com front and center main article as of 8:30 PM EDT: "Scary math: More homes, fewer buyers"
"Companies that lend money to home buyers with bad credit histories are getting crushed. Along with worrying stock investors, troubles for subprime mortgage lenders could mean there will be more homes in an over-supplied market and not as many people who can step in to make purchases."
Now all we need is a Fox News headline and the whole spectrum will be covered. Oh, wait, their top story as of 8:30 PM EST is "Homeowners in Crisis"...it's official, Joe 6 Pack knows, no matter what his political leanings are.
Foolmate - I concur. We need at least one 10% correction in this Bull Market - haven't had one yet. It will take a couple more weeks to hit bottom then there will be a re-test a couple weeks later. Some stocks (the leaders) will bottom at the first bottom but others (more troubled but some more interesting) won't bottom until the re-test. One needs to make a list now and be patient.
It is best to buy when one is personally afraid - not when you "think" others are scared. Unfortunately, one tends to become paralyzed when the really good buying opportunities present themselves.
Q.What investing style do you currently favor for the equity portion of your portfolio?
Value Growth
What a great day to ask?
I needed a somewhat more complicated 3rd option, for what it is worth.
Stagflation - In 2004 you became aware that we simply borrowed our recovery and exited the stock market entirely. You moved to physical gold and silver. In the spring of 2006, (after umpteen seemingly innocent and "harmless" baby-step rate increases), you moved entirely to the relative safety of T-Bills and TIPS.
As for the latest job report, I'm sure this has been mentioned before but...
The $871,000 Job Subsidy The $871,000 Job Subsidy This means that even under the most optimistic assumptions about the relationship between tax cuts and jobs pushed by the White House, the Bush economic brain trust managed to spend $871,000 on every new job it claims to have created since 2001.
Gotta love those economic brain trusts.
In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves. - Alan Greenspan, 1966
In other words, no matter how much we'd prefer not to be, we are all players in the casino.
Just after the 400+ point crash I asked whether or not the top was in for the DOW. Given recent news and today's action, I believe the answer is an unqualified "YES".
IMO, the cyclical bull is now over and the secular bear will now reassert itself.
Anybody who thinks that somebody who overstated income to get a 100% mortgage with a teaser rate is a victim is nuts. It was a great run. Stop paying and you get several maybe many months free. Some people have been screwed, but most didn't deserve to live there anyway. Life goes on....
DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM - news) will inject $1 billion into GMAC, its former finance arm said on Tuesday, a capital infusion needed to complete the sale of the automaker's majority stake in the face of escalating defaults in the U.S. mortgage market.
Under terms of its sale to a group led by Cerberus Capital Management, GM had guaranteed a minimum book value of $14.4 billion when the sale closed at the end of November.
However, a recalculation of GMAC's book value revealed a shortfall caused by the mortgage losses that GM is now trying to address with the $1 billion cash injection this quarter.
General Motors just has to be the worst managed company of my 65 year life time - that has managed to stay in business for decades. Just amazing!! They couldn't even manage to sell off what had been a very profitable asset any time near it's peak. They waited until it was going down the tube.
Has any company had a more slow, lingering death than GM? They can't even go into bankruptcy efficiently. But I am confident that eventually they will complete the task.
Asked why Chase sold the properties, Norris replied, "Our strategy is to hold long-term leases as opposed to being a landlord."
JPMorgan shed 4 mln sq ft net real estate in 2006
March 6, 2007 Business & Financial News, Breaking US & International News | Reuters.com NEW YORK, March 6 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM.N: Quote, Profile , Research) said on Tuesday it shrank its corporate footprint by 4 million square feet last year as the third-largest U.S. bank sold real estate and consolidated office space.
Chase Sells Detroit Tower, Signs 10-Year Lease
March 13, 2007 Expired DETROIT--(BUSINESS WIRE)--JPMorgan Chase has sold its Chase Tower to Sterling Group, a Detroit-based real estate company, and signed a 10-year commitment with renewal options to lease eight floors totaling nearly 215,000 square feet.
Tennis-8 about a 10% correction. The small 8.4% correction in the dow last year was coming off of a 5.6% GDP growth quarter with fears of an overheating economy with inflation rising and some unwinding of the carry trade. A correction in the market from companies blowing up and recession fears is a totally different animal.
OT - Are there any reliable data out there that predict the future of property taxes? This is truly a geographically dependant variable, but the fact is that nationwide, more taxes are being pushed onto states and therefore localities. This additional drain on property owners can only accelerate the pace of foreclosures.
Thanks all for any insights.
I've got more put position on banks than I can count (not really, but you get my drift), but if CFC gets close to 30 and holds, my plan is to buy calls.
CFC has been in a 30-40 channel for a number of years now.
Here's a little nugget in CFC's 10K that's possibly relatd to Early Payment Default and Forced Buybacks. It's buried in the footnote section (page F-20 of the "Notes to Consolidated Financial Statement" under Item 3. Loan Sales:
"The Company routinely originates, purchases and sells mortgage loans into the secondary mortgage market. Prime mortgage loan sales are generally structured without recourse to the Company. However, the Company generally has limited recourse on the Prime Home Equity and Nonprime Mortgage Loans it securitizes, through retention of a subordinated interest or through its issuance of a corporate guarantee of losses up to a negotiated maximum amount. While the Company generally does not retain credit risk on the Prime Mortgage Loans it sells, it has potential liability under representations and warranties it makes to purchasers and insurers of the loans.
The Company had a liability for losses relating to representations and warranties included in accounts payable and accrued liabilities totaling $390.2 million and $187.5 million at December 31, 2006 and 2005, respectively"
Company included provisions for losses on representations and warranties in gain on sale of loans and securities totaling $290.4 million, $66.5 million and $85.4 million during the years ended December 31, 2006, 2005 and 2004, respectively. The Company had charge-offs totaling $87.7 million, $31.0 million, and $42.1 million relating to its representations and warranties during the years ended December 31, 2006, 2005 and 2004, respectively."
It then went on and on about the valuation of MSR, and then, almost as an afterthought, there's this little nugget:
"The following table presents information about delinquencies and components of Prime Home Equity and Nonprime Mortgage Loans for which the Company has retained some level of credit risk:
Prime Equity and Nonprime Mtge Loans:
Loans and securitie sold -- total principal amount (in thousands):
2006: $82,853,246
2005: $65,657,207
Prcinpal amount 60 days or more past due (in thousands):
My point about showing the CFC's 10K on loan sales:
Although close to $83B of subprime and HELOC loans are off CFC's books, they still retain credit exposure from them.
So you can't just say they have 7% Suprime exposure on their books. They have a bunch of subprime exposure that's off balance sheet that may yet rebound back onto their income statement and balance sheet if things go bad, as they are doing right at this moment.
synchro, that's a nice catch! I overlooked it. If I had puts it would make me have pleasant dreams tonight. If I were angie I would SELL SELL SELl... curiously, just like he's preoccupied himself with doing almost every single day.
synchro: interesting comments. the forced buybacks looked to be a big spike in the heart of New Century (of course there were many spikes). i got to thinking about this just before i came across your comment.
The CEO mentioned in the video that they have "reserves" to handle buybacks. Anyone know what the reserves total?
CFC Insider Stock Sale Profits Last Two Years
(Sales minus Option Exercises)
Insider\t\t\t\tProfit*
KURLAND STANFORD L \t\t$126,555,335
MOZILO ANGELO R \t\t$114,382,409
GARCIA CARLOS MANUEL \t\t $24,467,322
SAMBOL DAVID \t\t\t $16,419,150
FURASH JAMES S \t\t\t $7,360,400
SNYDER HARLEY W \t\t $6,462,566
ROBERTSON OSCAR P \t\t $5,609,600
SAMUELS SANDOR E \t\t $5,537,684
DOUGHERTY MICHAEL E \t\t $4,723,522
GATES MARSHALL M \t\t $2,778,550
HELLER EDWIN \t\t\t $2,653,558
MCCALLION ANNE \t\t\t $2,396,681
CUNNINGHAM JEFFREY M \t\t $2,198,500
KRIPALANI RANJIT M \t\t $1,983,754
CISNEROS HENRY G \t\t $1,949,087
MILLEMAN LAURA K \t\t $1,780,320
DONATO ROBERT J \t\t $1,700,594
GISSINGER ANDREW III \t\t $896,434
SCHAKETT JAMES W \t\t $924,457
SPEAKES JEFFREY K \t\t $754,775
KRSNICH NICHOLAS \t\t $60,000
Grand Total\t\t\t$331,246,698
*'Profit' is slightly overstated in some cases because the shares sold must have been acquired before the period covered by the data (i.e., number of shares sold in the period exceeded number acquired in the period by option exercises).
This is nearly half the amount paid out to the stockholders in dividends during the 2005 and 2006 fiscal years. (But Toll Bros. insiders made similar profits without ever paying stockholders a penny in dividends, so it could have been worse.)
sidelined: wrt to "reserves" that Leatherface mentioned, it's in the footnote: So far they have a $390MM "Account payable" for buybacks as of 12/31/06. This appears to be the amount of the forced buybacks they acknowledged as of 12/31/06. Of this $390MM forced buybacks, they apparently have already provisioned $290MM for possible losses from the $390MM. The provision as of 12/31/05 (a year ago) was $66.5MM. So the change of $290MM - $66.5MM = $230MM presumably has flown through their income statement as a loss. That may seem conservative, BUT, it all depends on how much of the forced buybacks have grown since 12/31/06. I would imagine the number is a lot bigger than $390MM by now -- judging from NEW and LEND's fates. So the 07Q1 10Q disclosure will be interesting.
What I found somewhat disturbing is how such a crucial piece of information is shoved at the END of the huge 10K document in the FOOTNOTE.
Correction: the incurred loss in 2006 related to forced buybacks is $290MM (as of 12/31/06) - $66.5MM (as of 12/31/05) - $87.7MM (charge-off in 2006) = $135.8MM.
Btw, this is purely from an amateur posing as a forensic accountant. My background is actuarial science and insurance. I could be wrong interpreting these numbers.
Syncro,
Regarding footnotes, they have an order to them that appears correct.
Having said that, I have long held the opinion that the footnotes should be clearly cross referenced (i.e. specific financial statement line references) so the reader can see the impact of accounting positions taken on the financial statments.
Crisis, this is no crisis, this is me having fun...
Well, now that the great liquidity machines are sputtering into reverse, does anyone have any bright ideas on how to make this all go away?
Ben, we really don't need more liquidity unless we raise wages, yeah those things people depend on to pay those bloated mortgages...
I did.
He needs to leave the tanning booth.
Summary:
Everyone is screwed - US consumers, Subprimes, he named New and Ameriquest, first time homebuyers, etc.. - EXCEPT CFC. "At the end of the day, this is all great news for CFC".
He mentioned the liquidity crunch a couple of time and lobbyied for rate cuts.
Here is the interview:
Video - CNBC.com
Who do YOU nominate to play the role of Kreditanstalt?
Ah, AllenM, you have answered my question from the previous cycle.
Of course. The euro is holding its own, because...
The pressure on Ben to lower rates is growing rather rapidly each day.
I will be exceedingly interested, interested beyond measure, to hear whether he repeats the old bromides about fears of inflation the next time he opens his mouth.
If he does, that means he really and truly fears a run on the dollar. A really bad run.
FBI should be reading this:
Yahoo! Message Boards -
Citi didn't fare very well in today's market action.
Their dividend yield in now 4.3%
Any takers?
I saw most of it, but couldn't get past his creepy suntan. No wonder they call him leatherface. All personal attacks aside, insider stock sales notwithstanding, he pretty much did a cya on the whole issue. Never once will he acknowledge the one critical assumption (house prices always go up) that underpinned his whole business. Instead he justified his efforts to push up minority homeownership, an utter crock of a copout. Really, all you need to know about these people is that they sold assets to people on margin, at the top of an asset price peak that was clearly unsustainable, in loan structures that only did NOT end up in foreclosure if you wish away the one thing you absolutely do know about the market. House prices cannot keep going up if incomes and rents arent moving in tandem.
Just how long are we supposed to ignore that reality and listen to their BS?
yal, dont worry, they ARE reading it.
I found a link to my earlier post on previous thread:
Massachusetts subpoenas firms on subprime research
Business & Financial News, Breaking US & International News | Reuters.com
"Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin said in a statement that the securities division of his office subpoenaed UBS AG of Switzerland's (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile , Research) UBS Securities LLC and Bear Stearns Cos. Inc. (BSC.N: Quote, Profile , Research) concerning research analysis of subprime lenders, including New Century Financial Corp. (NEWC.PK: Quote, Profile , Research).
"A global settlement of conflicts by research analysts at investment houses in 2003 set rules for independent analysis. Recent revelations that research analysts issued positive reports on mortgage lenders to those with less than solid credit ratings even as those companies faced more and more defaults suggests that the commitment of 2003 has not been met," Galvin said."
can you say "Conflict of interest"?
How can any ratings they do be taken seriously after this?
The other thing that cracked me up in the interview, was the part about how this will ensure Fed rate cuts, and that will save the day in housing. And of course, CFC will be the one who comes out on top of all this mess.
And because of this, Ive sold 5 mil worth of my stock the past few days. Uh, what's that stink?
Geoff,
Excellent comment. But, believe you me, all the stuff about, "Give me your downtrodden, your weak and poor..." is only a very direct appeal to Congress to keep the moneylenders out of debtors prison.
It is not the illegal aliens who are crying about how unfair it all is, it's the boys who made the big bucks.
I guess that he doesn't believe in putting his millions where his mouth is then. Exactly how much of the company stock has he sold recently??????????
He whined about all the poor people who would not be able to refinance their owns if the standards are tightened. But Angie baby: why did you sell them a mortgage they couldn't service out of their income? Don't you know it's predatory lending to lend someone money knowing that the only way they can pay the loan back is to take out another loan?
He's right about the consequences: Bankruptcy for millions. But he's wrong about the cause: Look in the mirror, Angelo!
If law-makers want to help those who bought houses and now can not pay for them they have to take it via taxes from those who made money from selling their homes and from mortgae bank excecs who use their company stock buy back to buy their own selling of excersized stock options
May 14, 1931- Gold over Europe: the failure of Kreditanstalt
INTERNATIONAL: Gold Over Europe - TIME
There are actually two parts:
Video - CNBC.com
Video - CNBC.com
Exactly how much of the company stock has he sold recently??????????
If recollection serves, about $8 million worth since the BEGINNING of this month.
I can't believe he used th ephrase "liquidity crisis." That's going to be the quote that's repeated. It could well become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Oops!
Cramer has been spouting the tightening of lending standards as 'taking away the loan from the working man' crap.
Noooooo it's overinflated housing prices that forced the working man into putting over 50% of his income and uber-low interest rates that caused the necessity of such loans to exist. And all of these people, Cramer included, made a ton of money in the meantime. Now the party may be over.
Tough crap Cramer! When the working man can afford a house on no more than 30% of take home then his whole financial life might not be on the line.
People like Mozilo and Cramer really make me angry. I'm not sure either of them really care about the working man.
Thanks to Angelo, I now know it was those damn speculators who are to blame. Countrywide has been a saint all along and will reap the rewards. LOL!!!
I listened to Angelo.
He looked and sound stressed.
He said that it is good that sub-prime lenders are gone but he wants to keep the sub-prime loan programs. It will be good for CFC although CFC does not do more than 7% sub-prime.
does it makes sense ?
Yep
Our betters have been promoting debt as a way of keeping from paying us more wages or letting the US decline into a lower standard of living as the alternative.
Hmmm. KPMG was the outside auditor for both NEW and CFC.
The partner in charge may soon be "persuing other interests".
http://img.coxnewsweb.com/B/07/36/39/image_339367.jpg
UPDATE 1-H&R Block delays filing quarterly report
Business & Financial News, Breaking US & International News | Reuters.com
Cramer is paid to get people money into stock market. The CNBC if founded by Wall Street.
Connect the dots yourself.
I just read that yahoo thread.
I think I'm going to puke.
I wish I knew where that house is so when I buy, I don't buy anywhere near there.
Good to know Countrywide is a healthier lender. Maybe I should reconsider buying more puts?
(sarcasm)
Angelo wisely converted some of his wealth from CFC stock over the last few months.
It's important to have cash to pay for the tanning booth
So 93% of CFC's loans aren't among those types causing all the fuss?
What percentage of that 93% who supposedly obtained these low risk mortgages were able to sell their existing house (and move up with that big fat down payment) to one of those buyers with that crazy exotic stuff? And more importantly, how many will be able to move up in the future?
Everyone says they are immune/isolated from subprime, yet they all agree that prices were artificially high as a result of this funny money. How can it affect housing on the way up but not on the way down?
Nobody operates in a vacuum.
Take-away from the entire insincere CFC PR stunt:
He's as creepy as they come. Liquidity crisis my ass.
Gosh, I'm having a liquidity crisis, too... nobody is giving me free money.
What can be done about this terrible situation???
Want to see a real Dollar Rally, Gold Collapse, and yes, a Rally in the Long END Maturities?
Ben, develop some gonads like P Volker and unannounced, RAISE the Funds rate to 5.50%.
Forget about the Subprime implosion, it's history. The FED can't save the subprime end of the market by LOWERING Rates....home prices are going down even if rates were lowered to 1% funds.
Read about the yen carry trade, which lies behind a ton of this nonsense, here:
Safe Haven | Unwinding the Yen, Unravels Global Stock Markets
Just a really interesting article.
The guys who are making the money are going to walk away from this with a smile and a ticket to Maui.
Give credit where credit is due.
And stop talking about illegal immigrants. Who would you rather trade places with:
an illegal immigrant
the head of securitization at Citi?
The equity has been sucked out of the United States.
War in Iraq. Check.
Yen carry trade. Check.
Gonzo lending practices. Check.
Price supports for foreign imports. Check.
Dishonesty everywhere. Check.
So long, USA.
Claims that the sub-prime crisis is an affliction to working families are beneath contempt. As others have noted, it is the unaffordability of housing that is the problem and to suggest otherwise, particularly by patronizing the poor and minorities, is nothing more than a PR tactic to deflect blame from those who aided and abetted the obscene speculation in U.S. housing that has left so many people in a financial crisis.
These people truly have no shame.
he has struck me as being more realistic than most in his prognostications, called a hard landing a year ago, too bad people didn't listen and sell their shares like he did
Insider Stock Trades - Countrywide Financial Corp (CFC)
This link takes you to MOZO leather face's CFC stock sales for 07. An added treat is the stock sales for other CFC insiders.
The number of shares is staggering.
Risking the old fifteen yard penalty for piling on, let me just remind everyone that CFC has "maintained profitability" over the years by being utterly ruthless about firing and laying off its employees at the first sign of a "liquidity crisis." Listening to Angelo blather on about the poor old workin' stiffs is like listening to Chainsaw Al Dunlap talk about employee morale.
Ok, I was headed for the tanning salon, but not any more.
I'm gettin the hang of the real meaning of "no skin in the game"...the appearance of skin...talk about over-exposure.
I must say mikail you make uncommonly good sense to me...sorta (this is as good as it gets with me).
BB takes the high road --exacerbating the mortgage rates in this "tightening" process (against current trends which see slightly lower mortgage rates as mortgage volume unwinds, yes?) or does the inverted yield curve deepen...showing the Fed to be less than the competent body we were hoping for?
Or he takes the low road hoping to ignite the carry trade without enflaming a run on the dollar?
Or he stays put and hopes that the damage is containable, all 4? 5? years of it...and buyers of tbills are patient, understanding and forgiving.
So what sort of fire power does the Fed have? I know, 525bps of fire power (which isn't enough if the last down cycle in '01 was any indication) but humor me here. Back in Jan '01 Fed Funds was 6.5% and a Euro cost $0.90. Europe is raising rates and the Fed may be dumb enough to cut rates to save some people who should have known better than to take out such crazy loans (I realize there were some people who got "taken" in this subprime sham). A Euro now costs $1.32. There will be a huge run on the US$ if they cut rates quickly in an attempt to save borrowers (or Lenders depending on where the men & women of Congress got money for their PACs). I just don't see how Ben threads the needle on this one. Not to mention creating more moral hazard...as if they really care. It's time people pay the piper. Of course, unlike crappy dot.com stocks, houses & debt don't disappear. We could be wearing this crap for years to come.
Why is Gold trading down by the way? Shouldn't there be a flight to it? I don't get it.
Angelo doesn't bother me. He started the company from scratch, he's 68 and cashing out. I don't blame him. He only let subprime get to 7%, while the nutballs NEW and NFI went crazy with risk. As I said a couple of days ago, LEND was the highest house on the flooding street, well the flood took them out. CFC lives way up the hill and they will survive, and with little competition they will do well. His point about the inability of first time home buyers to now buy a house is spot on. That will drive the coming recession. If you are a young family with a house and are ready to move up, who are you going to sell to? The entire real estate system is freezing up as we blog. Wall Street finally connected the dots on the home builders today. The next couple of weeks/months are going to be ugly for the markets.
Fed rate cuts? If the fed cuts the dollar collapses and the yen carry trade explodes. Which kills the markets. Greenie and left Beardface in a brutal position....
People liquidating gold to pay off margin calls.
Calm down, everything is going to be okay, this is just a stock buying opportunity.
JBA, it doesnt matter that he only let subprime get to 7%. The fact is he lent people rope, and now they are hanging themselves. What pisses me off about the whole lending industry is that they marketed the rope as the American dream. But it was just a noose in disguise.
When they lent the rope, it wasnt just to subprime - it was to a whole load of others who were taken in by the industry's BS. "Buy now or be priced out forever." If you believe that, and you act on it, and you dont have the downpayment and you cant really afford the fully amortized payment, you just have to either be stupid, greedy, or really optimistic and with great timing. There's nothing wrong with wanting a home, even if it's not a great investment. I know it's not a great one (in normal times) but Id still like one one day where I know I'll settle down. Fortunately I know that wont be for a few years now. But I dont feel bad for wanting a home. Id feel pretty stupid if I listened to the industry's advice the past few years and put my hard earned cash into a sinkhole at their advice/fearmongering.
For those who honestly believed their BS, and just wanted to be a homeowner one day, who were forced into the market by fear, well, I feel sorry for those folks. I dont think they necessarily deserve a bailout, but the people who lent to them deserve an arsekicking. For anyone who tried to take advantage of this, well, who can blame them. Some won bigtime and cashed out, some are about to get a castiron pan to the face. For those who fraudulently benefited, I hope they end up in jail. But dont forget, not everyone went into this with the same intentions. Unfortunately, you cant decide how to compensate punish each one on an individual basis. That's what really sucks. Many of the people who benefited from fraud will never be caught, and many hardworking (if financially illiterate) people will end up holding the bag. Given how many supposedly financially savvy people didnt see this trainwreck coming, you cant really expect J6P to get it.
You have to know though, that everyone in the industry who had made it to upper mgmt had to be well aware that they were milking this to the hilt and that it was clearly unsustainable. And they also had to know that the bagholders would largely be the people who bought in the last few years, since they knew the MBS would soak up some risk and disperse it, and they woudl eventually be dropped like a bad habit once Wall Street gave the say so.
It should have never ever gotten this out of hand. I seriously believe that Alan Greenspan will eventually have a legacy in economics to match that of George Bush in politics - that of a corrupt, disingenuous fool.
arbogast
So long, USA.
Are you leaving or did you forget to take your medication again?
CNN.com front and center main article as of 8:30 PM EDT:
"Scary math: More homes, fewer buyers"
"Companies that lend money to home buyers with bad credit histories are getting crushed. Along with worrying stock investors, troubles for subprime mortgage lenders could mean there will be more homes in an over-supplied market and not as many people who can step in to make purchases."
Now all we need is a Fox News headline and the whole spectrum will be covered. Oh, wait, their top story as of 8:30 PM EST is "Homeowners in Crisis"...it's official, Joe 6 Pack knows, no matter what his political leanings are.
Bad first link...
http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/12/real_estate/new_real_estate_reality/index.htm?cnn=yes
Foolmate - I concur. We need at least one 10% correction in this Bull Market - haven't had one yet. It will take a couple more weeks to hit bottom then there will be a re-test a couple weeks later. Some stocks (the leaders) will bottom at the first bottom but others (more troubled but some more interesting) won't bottom until the re-test. One needs to make a list now and be patient.
It is best to buy when one is personally afraid - not when you "think" others are scared. Unfortunately, one tends to become paralyzed when the really good buying opportunities present themselves.
Bull Market? No more
10% correction? Think more- recession coming-
Centex CEO bailing out of his stock, plans on selling more this year than the past 3 years:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/centex-ceo-adopts-stock-selling/story.aspx?guid={37827826-5923-40F2-A3B1-CFDBEADDEE87}&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahoo
Pardon me for saying so, but, it is about time these people woke the hell up, this was beyond comprehension;
Expired
Today's Yahoo Finance Poll
Q.What investing style do you currently favor for the equity portion of your portfolio?
Value
Growth
What a great day to ask?
I needed a somewhat more complicated 3rd option, for what it is worth.
Stagflation - In 2004 you became aware that we simply borrowed our recovery and exited the stock market entirely. You moved to physical gold and silver. In the spring of 2006, (after umpteen seemingly innocent and "harmless" baby-step rate increases), you moved entirely to the relative safety of T-Bills and TIPS.
As for the latest job report, I'm sure this has been mentioned before but...
The $871,000 Job Subsidy
The $871,000 Job Subsidy
This means that even under the most optimistic assumptions about the relationship between tax cuts and jobs pushed by the White House, the Bush economic brain trust managed to spend $871,000 on every new job it claims to have created since 2001.
Gotta love those economic brain trusts.
In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves. - Alan Greenspan, 1966
In other words, no matter how much we'd prefer not to be, we are all players in the casino.
big mo has been selling like a man on a mission...
SEC should investigate this..is he holding back info?
This housing ponzi game is OVER!
Bring on the BUST!
Why is Gold trading down by the way? Shouldn't there be a flight to it? I don't get it.
No, current flight to safety is strictly knee-jerk stuff... Treasuries, etc. It'll take a realization of the dollar's true fate before gold soars.
Just after the 400+ point crash I asked whether or not the top was in for the DOW. Given recent news and today's action, I believe the answer is an unqualified "YES".
IMO, the cyclical bull is now over and the secular bear will now reassert itself.
Actually, Angelo has sold better than $10m in stock in the last two weeks... he did another $2.4m today.
Anybody who thinks that somebody who overstated income to get a 100% mortgage with a teaser rate is a victim is nuts. It was a great run. Stop paying and you get several maybe many months free. Some people have been screwed, but most didn't deserve to live there anyway. Life goes on....
So long, USA.
There will be a re-birth.
Weak gold means market trusts that Bernanke will not cut rates.
AFAIK Ben is quite smart, so I also think he will not cut rates. But I have some gold just in case I'm wrong
People liquidating gold to pay off margin calls.
But are the kind of people who generally buy gold the kind of people who would buy on margin? I would tend to think not, but who knows?
DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM - news) will inject $1 billion into GMAC, its former finance arm said on Tuesday, a capital infusion needed to complete the sale of the automaker's majority stake in the face of escalating defaults in the U.S. mortgage market.
Under terms of its sale to a group led by Cerberus Capital Management, GM had guaranteed a minimum book value of $14.4 billion when the sale closed at the end of November.
However, a recalculation of GMAC's book value revealed a shortfall caused by the mortgage losses that GM is now trying to address with the $1 billion cash injection this quarter.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
General Motors just has to be the worst managed company of my 65 year life time - that has managed to stay in business for decades. Just amazing!! They couldn't even manage to sell off what had been a very profitable asset any time near it's peak. They waited until it was going down the tube.
Has any company had a more slow, lingering death than GM? They can't even go into bankruptcy efficiently. But I am confident that eventually they will complete the task.
Chase Tower changes hands
March 1, 2007
http://www.dailymail.com/story/News/+/2007030126/Chase+Tower+changes+hands
JPMorgan Chase has sold its downtown Charleston office tower to a Toronto-based real estate investment fund.
Asked why Chase sold the properties, Norris replied, "Our strategy is to hold long-term leases as opposed to being a landlord."
JPMorgan shed 4 mln sq ft net real estate in 2006
March 6, 2007
Business & Financial News, Breaking US & International News | Reuters.com
NEW YORK, March 6 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM.N: Quote, Profile , Research) said on Tuesday it shrank its corporate footprint by 4 million square feet last year as the third-largest U.S. bank sold real estate and consolidated office space.
Chase Sells Detroit Tower, Signs 10-Year Lease
March 13, 2007
Expired
DETROIT--(BUSINESS WIRE)--JPMorgan Chase has sold its Chase Tower to Sterling Group, a Detroit-based real estate company, and signed a 10-year commitment with renewal options to lease eight floors totaling nearly 215,000 square feet.
Nothing says "strategy" like a run for the exits.
Tennis-8 about a 10% correction. The small 8.4% correction in the dow last year was coming off of a 5.6% GDP growth quarter with fears of an overheating economy with inflation rising and some unwinding of the carry trade. A correction in the market from companies blowing up and recession fears is a totally different animal.
Rumor has it that Credit S. has cut their entire subprime group and will no longer be in that market.
OT - Are there any reliable data out there that predict the future of property taxes? This is truly a geographically dependant variable, but the fact is that nationwide, more taxes are being pushed onto states and therefore localities. This additional drain on property owners can only accelerate the pace of foreclosures.
Thanks all for any insights.
I just had to say... my handle has nothing to do with "leatherface" Mozo!
I've got more put position on banks than I can count (not really, but you get my drift), but if CFC gets close to 30 and holds, my plan is to buy calls.
CFC has been in a 30-40 channel for a number of years now.
Here's a little nugget in CFC's 10K that's possibly relatd to Early Payment Default and Forced Buybacks. It's buried in the footnote section (page F-20 of the "Notes to Consolidated Financial Statement" under Item 3. Loan Sales:
"The Company routinely originates, purchases and sells mortgage loans into the secondary mortgage market. Prime mortgage loan sales are generally structured without recourse to the Company. However, the Company generally has limited recourse on the Prime Home Equity and Nonprime Mortgage Loans it securitizes, through retention of a subordinated interest or through its issuance of a corporate guarantee of losses up to a negotiated maximum amount. While the Company generally does not retain credit risk on the Prime Mortgage Loans it sells, it has potential liability under representations and warranties it makes to purchasers and insurers of the loans.
The Company had a liability for losses relating to representations and warranties included in accounts payable and accrued liabilities totaling $390.2 million and $187.5 million at December 31, 2006 and 2005, respectively"
Company included provisions for losses on representations and warranties in gain on sale of loans and securities totaling $290.4 million, $66.5 million and $85.4 million during the years ended December 31, 2006, 2005 and 2004, respectively. The Company had charge-offs totaling $87.7 million, $31.0 million, and $42.1 million relating to its representations and warranties during the years ended December 31, 2006, 2005 and 2004, respectively."
It then went on and on about the valuation of MSR, and then, almost as an afterthought, there's this little nugget:
"The following table presents information about delinquencies and components of Prime Home Equity and Nonprime Mortgage Loans for which the Company has retained some level of credit risk:
Prime Equity and Nonprime Mtge Loans:
Loans and securitie sold -- total principal amount (in thousands):
2006: $82,853,246
2005: $65,657,207
Prcinpal amount 60 days or more past due (in thousands):
2006: $4,577,045
2005: $1,639,436
My point about showing the CFC's 10K on loan sales:
Although close to $83B of subprime and HELOC loans are off CFC's books, they still retain credit exposure from them.
So you can't just say they have 7% Suprime exposure on their books. They have a bunch of subprime exposure that's off balance sheet that may yet rebound back onto their income statement and balance sheet if things go bad, as they are doing right at this moment.
Even though I work in a financial corp, I'm not much for 10K, 8K, quarterlies, etc. But I have 4 basic observations on CFC.
1) Alt-A isn't what it used to be. What was subprime 5 years ago is like Alt-A now.
2) Countrywide is heavily exposed to Southern Cal.
3) 100% financing in a declining market will gut any borrower, at ANY credit level, (or a lender taking on REOs)
4) CFC is surrounded by imploding companies, and the flak will land all over the place.
They may survive, but they won't come out on the other side of this bust, smelling sweetly.
synchro, that's a nice catch! I overlooked it. If I had puts it would make me have pleasant dreams tonight. If I were angie I would SELL SELL SELl... curiously, just like he's preoccupied himself with doing almost every single day.
synchro: excellent post!
Synchro: Tnx.
Tennis_8: How are we doing ? (wake up etc...)
synchro: interesting comments. the forced buybacks looked to be a big spike in the heart of New Century (of course there were many spikes). i got to thinking about this just before i came across your comment.
The CEO mentioned in the video that they have "reserves" to handle buybacks. Anyone know what the reserves total?
CFC Insider Stock Sale Profits Last Two Years
(Sales minus Option Exercises)
Insider\t\t\t\tProfit*
KURLAND STANFORD L \t\t$126,555,335
MOZILO ANGELO R \t\t$114,382,409
GARCIA CARLOS MANUEL \t\t $24,467,322
SAMBOL DAVID \t\t\t $16,419,150
FURASH JAMES S \t\t\t $7,360,400
SNYDER HARLEY W \t\t $6,462,566
ROBERTSON OSCAR P \t\t $5,609,600
SAMUELS SANDOR E \t\t $5,537,684
DOUGHERTY MICHAEL E \t\t $4,723,522
GATES MARSHALL M \t\t $2,778,550
HELLER EDWIN \t\t\t $2,653,558
MCCALLION ANNE \t\t\t $2,396,681
CUNNINGHAM JEFFREY M \t\t $2,198,500
KRIPALANI RANJIT M \t\t $1,983,754
CISNEROS HENRY G \t\t $1,949,087
MILLEMAN LAURA K \t\t $1,780,320
DONATO ROBERT J \t\t $1,700,594
GISSINGER ANDREW III \t\t $896,434
SCHAKETT JAMES W \t\t $924,457
SPEAKES JEFFREY K \t\t $754,775
KRSNICH NICHOLAS \t\t $60,000
Grand Total\t\t\t$331,246,698
*'Profit' is slightly overstated in some cases because the shares sold must have been acquired before the period covered by the data (i.e., number of shares sold in the period exceeded number acquired in the period by option exercises).
Calculated from SEC data at Yahoo Finance
This is nearly half the amount paid out to the stockholders in dividends during the 2005 and 2006 fiscal years. (But Toll Bros. insiders made similar profits without ever paying stockholders a penny in dividends, so it could have been worse.)
sidelined: wrt to "reserves" that Leatherface mentioned, it's in the footnote: So far they have a $390MM "Account payable" for buybacks as of 12/31/06. This appears to be the amount of the forced buybacks they acknowledged as of 12/31/06. Of this $390MM forced buybacks, they apparently have already provisioned $290MM for possible losses from the $390MM. The provision as of 12/31/05 (a year ago) was $66.5MM. So the change of $290MM - $66.5MM = $230MM presumably has flown through their income statement as a loss. That may seem conservative, BUT, it all depends on how much of the forced buybacks have grown since 12/31/06. I would imagine the number is a lot bigger than $390MM by now -- judging from NEW and LEND's fates. So the 07Q1 10Q disclosure will be interesting.
What I found somewhat disturbing is how such a crucial piece of information is shoved at the END of the huge 10K document in the FOOTNOTE.
Correction: the incurred loss in 2006 related to forced buybacks is $290MM (as of 12/31/06) - $66.5MM (as of 12/31/05) - $87.7MM (charge-off in 2006) = $135.8MM.
Btw, this is purely from an amateur posing as a forensic accountant. My background is actuarial science and insurance. I could be wrong interpreting these numbers.
Syncro,
Regarding footnotes, they have an order to them that appears correct.
Having said that, I have long held the opinion that the footnotes should be clearly cross referenced (i.e. specific financial statement line references) so the reader can see the impact of accounting positions taken on the financial statments.