"When will the market rebound?" [Toll Brothers Inc. Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll] said at a conference in Las Vegas today. "Who knows? The Shadow knows. I have no idea. I would've thought that it would've rebounded by now and I would've been dead wrong, and I was."
...
I guess we'll know Bob as soon as we see you start buying again...and not "when you would've". But the transparency of this hypocricy is apparently only ours.
Whent he number of homebuilders drops like their enablers the subprime mortgage folks. I believe that by late summer this will look far worse than almost anyone can believe.
Well, anybody else going to start buying puts on homebuilders now that the value folks who bought subprime lenders are having their heads handed to them?
I'm surprised the the homebuilders continue to be surprised. But they've been surprised the last two quarters when they've had to increase their write-downs. I would give NO credence to their utterances unless they're crying like babies--that's when you know it is a bottom
The Wall Street consensus was for a bottom in Q1 2007. That view is "no longer operative". I'll try to call the bottom for New Home sales, a couple of quarters before it happens, but IMO it is still too early to even try.
I think one of the most important aspects of making predictions is just asking whether something is predictable or not within a certain context (typically a timeframe).
We can verify empirically that behaviors that are described by what some call "chaos theory" exist in the real world and are in fact commonplace in complex systems (e.g. markets and economies).
The implication is that beyond some range systems are not predictable with virtual certainty.
So the first question to ask is not whether something will happen in a given timeframe, but whether that can be determined.
That article is really interesting - (spillover unlikely). It totally misses his real assessment. He says we arent seeing the spillover yet - partly true - it is happening, we just arent seeing its impact, but give that time. But he also says that if prices drop, it will spillover and that if prices rise 10%, the subprime problem disappears (yeh, and if I find a million dollars on the street in a suitcase, Im a millionaire; just stupid straw man to throw in, since the chance of that is effectively zero).
What pisses me off is that the real takeaway here is that the spillover is LIKELY, not unlikely! Why? Because the house price drop is likely.
When banks obtain the house, can it be done it such a way as to count as a "sale", thus inflate the sale activity?
In calif I check Zillow for recent sales, and some of them still have for-sale signs up and are empty, as if they were forclosed perhaps when the bank was the winning bidder and took title it was counted as a sale?
Joe Lydon got a margin call (it appears) from Merrill Lynch and sold 73K shares (at prices from $5.25-5.45) in a "forced liquidation" on 3/13. See the form 4 filing on Edgar.
how long have past( new homes) downturns lasted on average?
this one is only a year old and they're looking for the bottom should they be?
crossroads,
The data I've looked at suggests that 5 years to a bottom is common then maybe another 5-10 years for recovery, but the fact that we have a national real estate bust could, IMO, lengthen the timeframe.
ac, haven't the runups previous to this one been more like 3 years rather than the 5 we had?
Say, in the Northeast, it went crazy from 1984 to 1987, then the crash until 1994 or so.
ac, have you read any work on boomer demographics vis-a-vis the economy? Just about the time you'd think housing would recover, it'll actually get worse. Might be 2020 before things look up.
Recently we have heard from two homebuilders that "this market sucks" and "spring was a bust" With comments like this, it's hard to spin a sows ear into a silk purse, so I won't even try. But for realities sake let us see where we stand.
1 Mortgage Equity withdrawal fell to 18 Billion in the 4th Quarter of 06.
2 New home inventory may be underestimated by at least 20%.
3 Sales of existing homes have fallen for 6 straight quarters.
4 Corrections in housing markets over the past 45 years have lasted on average around 40 months.
5 The real estate market peaked in the summer of 2005.
6 The subprime market meltdown will effect 40% of buyers.
7 The meltdown of Alt A loans may be a larger potiential problem than subprime.
8 Foreclosures are running 100% or more ahead of this time last year.
9 A large number of loans will be resetting around Memorial Day, which is the close of the summer selling season.
10 The bankruptcy law that was rewritten in Oct, 2005 may have unforeseen effects on housing and credit.
11 The Federal debt is close to 9 Trillion dollars, and the trade deficit was 850 Billion in 2006.
12 Total debt is running about 24% above the level last seen in 1929.
13 The demographics for real estate will turn negative in 2010. and start to turn around in 2015.
14 Gas prices should rise above $4.00 a gallon within the next 18 months, due to India and China's growing needs for energy and gasoline consumption.
15 The Security and Prosperity Partenership will go into effect in 2010.
I am not looking for a bottom in the foreseeable future, only a sighting of the craters rim.
Ok, Y. S. Wayne atleast those stories about the incoming meteor in 2013 is not on your list, so I can plan ahead...
Seriously, the Total Checkable Deposits, bumping up like that...anybody confirm this?
typo above, the word after Pelosi is supposed to be President.
Also, it's really reaffirming to have lots of bigwigs agree with me, but it might have been nice of them to say something about an impending collapse before the collapse was under way.
I heard an ad on the radio today offering me a "Vacation Mortgage". No payments for 12 full months. I am starting to think I'm living in a "What About Bob?" movie.
One tiny step at a time. Baby steps. - The Fed, playing the role of Dr. Leo Marvin by raising interest rates 17 times
Vacation from my problems. Take a vacation from my problems. A baby stepping, lazy stepping vacation from my problems. - The Borrower, playing the role of Bob
What About Bob? And no matter what he does, Bob just won't go away, and everybody thinks that Leo is being mean.
Anthony Fleming, although Chavallier uses FRBSL for some of his data, I cannot see where he gets $132B was injected into the economy during the week surrounding Mar 5. The FRBSL publishes weekly data on Total Checkable Deposits and although there is a spike for 9/11, the published data only goes to Feb 26.
I just wanted to comment that I mistakenly reported Accredited Home Lenders was laying off 50% of their staff on my blog, when my source had mispoke, meaning to reference ACC instead of Accredited. I apologize for any confusion and for fueling any type of rumors about the company. I have a full statement on my blog.
The bottom of new home sales is not withing couple of quarters. Too early to try.
I'm sure that when you'll come predicting it it will be correct
Time to do an 'Ivy' on this:
"When will the market rebound?" [Toll Brothers Inc. Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll] said at a conference in Las Vegas today. "Who knows? The Shadow knows. I have no idea. I would've thought that it would've rebounded by now and I would've been dead wrong, and I was."
...
I guess we'll know Bob as soon as we see you start buying again...and not "when you would've". But the transparency of this hypocricy is apparently only ours.
Oh, no bottom? oops my bad.
Bob Toll admitting a bust, what has the world come to?
Greenspan: Subprime Spillover Unlikely
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070315/greenspan.html?.v=2
It's all in the spin. There is no reality.
-Immanuel Kant. (Paraphrased)
Whent he number of homebuilders drops like their enablers the subprime mortgage folks. I believe that by late summer this will look far worse than almost anyone can believe.
Well, anybody else going to start buying puts on homebuilders now that the value folks who bought subprime lenders are having their heads handed to them?
I'm surprised the the homebuilders continue to be surprised. But they've been surprised the last two quarters when they've had to increase their write-downs. I would give NO credence to their utterances unless they're crying like babies--that's when you know it is a bottom
The Wall Street consensus was for a bottom in Q1 2007. That view is "no longer operative". I'll try to call the bottom for New Home sales, a couple of quarters before it happens, but IMO it is still too early to even try.
I think one of the most important aspects of making predictions is just asking whether something is predictable or not within a certain context (typically a timeframe).
We can verify empirically that behaviors that are described by what some call "chaos theory" exist in the real world and are in fact commonplace in complex systems (e.g. markets and economies).
The implication is that beyond some range systems are not predictable with virtual certainty.
So the first question to ask is not whether something will happen in a given timeframe, but whether that can be determined.
I predict housing will recover in August of 2011.
How is it that Toll is speaking in past-tense about the spring selling season? Isn't it just getting started in most places?
This image
is on the "front page" of MSNBC.com right now.
IMHO the bottom will be long and flat. The August of 2009 and 2011 will be pretty much equal.
Liars loans hitting commercial lending at this bank;
MarketWatch.com
That article is really interesting - (spillover unlikely). It totally misses his real assessment. He says we arent seeing the spillover yet - partly true - it is happening, we just arent seeing its impact, but give that time. But he also says that if prices drop, it will spillover and that if prices rise 10%, the subprime problem disappears (yeh, and if I find a million dollars on the street in a suitcase, Im a millionaire; just stupid straw man to throw in, since the chance of that is effectively zero).
What pisses me off is that the real takeaway here is that the spillover is LIKELY, not unlikely! Why? Because the house price drop is likely.
This may be the worst spin Ive seen in ages.
Question:
When banks obtain the house, can it be done it such a way as to count as a "sale", thus inflate the sale activity?
In calif I check Zillow for recent sales, and some of them still have for-sale signs up and are empty, as if they were forclosed perhaps when the bank was the winning bidder and took title it was counted as a sale?
Joe Lydon got a margin call (it appears) from Merrill Lynch and sold 73K shares (at prices from $5.25-5.45) in a "forced liquidation" on 3/13. See the form 4 filing on Edgar.
Expired
Wachovia doing large volume of option arms even now, nonperforming assets continue to climb steadily.
argh - put my comment into the greenspan thread!
how long have past( new homes) downturns lasted on average?
this one is only a year old and they're looking for the bottom should they be?
I don't understand we just saw the biggest housing boom and alot of people expect the smallest downturn why?
Another Commercial Loan gone bad;
Sanarus raises $15 million - San Francisco Business Times:
Implosion predicted;
Subprime Defaults to Soar, Hurt Lenders, Funds Say (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
how long have past( new homes) downturns lasted on average?
this one is only a year old and they're looking for the bottom should they be?
crossroads,
The data I've looked at suggests that 5 years to a bottom is common then maybe another 5-10 years for recovery, but the fact that we have a national real estate bust could, IMO, lengthen the timeframe.
As high yield spreads widen, this will become the new media topic du jour;
UPDATE 1-Bally Total Fitness may file for Chapter 11
| Reuters
ac, haven't the runups previous to this one been more like 3 years rather than the 5 we had?
Say, in the Northeast, it went crazy from 1984 to 1987, then the crash until 1994 or so.
OT: The Fed and Tresury did a mass injection into the markets on March 5th. As big as the one on September 11th, 2001.
http://chevallier.turgot.org/a549-A_September_11_2001_on_March_5_2007_.html
re subprime losses Subprime Defaults to Soar, Hurt Lenders, Funds Say (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Actually my last post looks more like investor fear cashing out of the markets into savings at a massive rate.
I predict housing will recover in August of 2011.
ac, have you read any work on boomer demographics vis-a-vis the economy? Just about the time you'd think housing would recover, it'll actually get worse. Might be 2020 before things look up.
Ameriquest news;
http://mobilemortgagenews.com/LayoffsAmeriquest031507.asp
here
Unable to confirm that injection Anthony which might be true, but zippo from the FRBs...how does M. Chevallier get his information?
Recently we have heard from two homebuilders that "this market sucks" and "spring was a bust" With comments like this, it's hard to spin a sows ear into a silk purse, so I won't even try. But for realities sake let us see where we stand.
1 Mortgage Equity withdrawal fell to 18 Billion in the 4th Quarter of 06.
2 New home inventory may be underestimated by at least 20%.
3 Sales of existing homes have fallen for 6 straight quarters.
4 Corrections in housing markets over the past 45 years have lasted on average around 40 months.
5 The real estate market peaked in the summer of 2005.
6 The subprime market meltdown will effect 40% of buyers.
7 The meltdown of Alt A loans may be a larger potiential problem than subprime.
8 Foreclosures are running 100% or more ahead of this time last year.
9 A large number of loans will be resetting around Memorial Day, which is the close of the summer selling season.
10 The bankruptcy law that was rewritten in Oct, 2005 may have unforeseen effects on housing and credit.
11 The Federal debt is close to 9 Trillion dollars, and the trade deficit was 850 Billion in 2006.
12 Total debt is running about 24% above the level last seen in 1929.
13 The demographics for real estate will turn negative in 2010. and start to turn around in 2015.
14 Gas prices should rise above $4.00 a gallon within the next 18 months, due to India and China's growing needs for energy and gasoline consumption.
15 The Security and Prosperity Partenership will go into effect in 2010.
I am not looking for a bottom in the foreseeable future, only a sighting of the craters rim.
Nice time to exercise when a baseless rumor hits the wires;
http://investors.accredhome.com/seccapsule/seccapsule.asp?m=f&c=132116&fid=4760571&dc=
More color on Ameriquest/Argent, layoffs may total 3000;
National Mortgage News - mortgage industry news | mortgage information | commercial real estate
Ok, Y. S. Wayne atleast those stories about the incoming meteor in 2013 is not on your list, so I can plan ahead...
Seriously, the Total Checkable Deposits, bumping up like that...anybody confirm this?
Y.S. Wayne,
Good start! I could add at least another dozen on housing alone. Don't even get me started on exogenous factors...
Y. S. Wayne,
That's quite a list of lies, damn lies and statistics you have there.
With Merrill joining me on the 10% decline and Greenspan starting to talk about recession, I'm looking good with my predictions for 07 so far.
Now all I need is for the Euro to thump the dollar and Bush and Cheney to get impeached making Pelosi oto seal my rep as a clairvoyant.
AC, looks like the original graphic didn't go over so well, they updated it:
Original image
New Image
typo above, the word after Pelosi is supposed to be President.
Also, it's really reaffirming to have lots of bigwigs agree with me, but it might have been nice of them to say something about an impending collapse before the collapse was under way.
Can anyone confirm this report of mass layoffs at LEND?
http://blownmortgage.typepad.com/blownmortgage_blog/2007/03/accredited_home_1.html
I heard an ad on the radio today offering me a "Vacation Mortgage". No payments for 12 full months. I am starting to think I'm living in a "What About Bob?" movie.
One tiny step at a time. Baby steps. - The Fed, playing the role of Dr. Leo Marvin by raising interest rates 17 times
Vacation from my problems. Take a vacation from my problems. A baby stepping, lazy stepping vacation from my problems. - The Borrower, playing the role of Bob
What About Bob?
And no matter what he does, Bob just won't go away, and everybody thinks that Leo is being mean.
Bobbyboy finally admits it's a bust AFTER trying to crush the shorts and selling a BOATLAOD of stock!!!!
Anyone notice all these RE execs are getting religion now months and years after Dumping stock as they pumped and primed the public?
So he is done selling his stock and wants to talk the price down, it all makes sense.
Josh
what's the link to the big table provided by Ivy Zellman with the types of mortgages?
Anthony Fleming, although Chavallier uses FRBSL for some of his data, I cannot see where he gets $132B was injected into the economy during the week surrounding Mar 5. The FRBSL publishes weekly data on Total Checkable Deposits and although there is a spike for 9/11, the published data only goes to Feb 26.
I just wanted to comment that I mistakenly reported Accredited Home Lenders was laying off 50% of their staff on my blog, when my source had mispoke, meaning to reference ACC instead of Accredited. I apologize for any confusion and for fueling any type of rumors about the company. I have a full statement on my blog.
Thank you for that report Anthony about Chevallier's retraction...and you too Morgan. We are nothing without honesty.