DataQuick: SoCal New price peak, slowest December in ten years
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 01/16/2007 - 11:06am (6 comments)
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Release for November 2006:
Indicators of market distress are still at a moderate level. Financing with adjustable-rate mortgages is flat. Foreclosure activity is rising but is still below average. Down payment sizes are stable, as are flipping rates and non-owner occupied buying activity, DataQuick reported.
Release for December 2006:
Indicators of market distress are still at a moderate level. Financing with adjustable-rate mortgages is flat. Foreclosure activity is rising but is still in the normal range. Down payment sizes are stable and flipping rates and non-owner occupied buying activity is down, DataQuick reported.
Cal, it won't be long before "foreclosures are rising and are above the normal range".
Best Wishes.
And the bubble keeps growing. Hard to believe that while many mortgage lenders bite the dust prices keep going up. Again, I attribute this to the 25%+ originations in the subprime market.
This won't last and my guess is after summer is when we will see a major shift in housing because many are hoping that the spring and summer jump will save them.
Bay Area is doing worse than Socal:
January 16, 2007
Santa Cara County SFH Median Price DOWN, $81,950, 0r 9.95%, In the Last Six Months
Dec-06\t $738,000
Nov-06 $775,000
Oct-06\t $775,000
Sep-06\t $769,000
Aug-06 $770,000
Jul-06\t $805,000
Jun-06\t $819,950
The recent drop is even more remarkable because the Scam Options money was the highest in a long while. I do expect some bounce, but a nasty decline in 2007H2.
BTW, DataQuest SFH Price in down $61,500 over the past 24 weeks (I dont have the peak price saved, but it is more like down $70K from the peak on DataQuest).
Despite the protestations of a Silly.con Valley Bull (SVB) who lives in Los Altos the prices in Los Altos are doing lot worse than in the less ritzy areas where working people live. On MLS:
Los Altos SFH!\t$1,493,900 -12.1%, YoY
Los Altos Condos\t $503,250 -21.1%, YoY
And whenever I present data that SVB doesnt like he first trashes the data, or its source, and than me. I can see why falling prices can make a Silly.conman act silly!
Jas
Thanks for those numbers Jas, and comments elsewhere. My take on the modest house prices sometimes reported (amid volume drops), to back claims that "the worst is over" etc is that in some counties the picture is brighter than others....that the affordability issue is not wealth-neutral.
To exaggerate, is it possible that the million dollar house that posts a 10% price increase while ten $100,000 houses don't sell, can create this illusion?
I laugh (then cry) every time I see..."Indicators of market distress are still at a moderate level. Financing with adjustable-rate mortgages is flat...Down payment sizes are stable and flipping rates and non-owner occupied buying activity is down."
That paragraph SHOULD be positive news until we consider...
1) Easy credit drove prices higher
2) We can't go much lower than zero down payment, so, yes, those DP sizes are stable
3) Bye bye flippers + non-owner occupied = bye bye speculation = bye bye demand = not good for prices