The Roubini slowdown continues to evolve. I don;t think anyone is too anxious to chain themselves to an expensive home right now. I think the purchase index is beginning to fall to a lower plateau to reflect that.
Yes, but will global warming bail out the loan applications this year?
I thought this was interesting on weather predictions for this winter and economic consequences thereof, although mostly I liked the part about prognostication via caterpillars. A good read if you're sitting around next to the open patio door (on November 1!) eating leftover Halloween candy for breakfast (until you get to the caterpillar part, maybe.)
CR, the purchase money applications are down more year over year. Hanley Wood's homebuilding stats page tracks the purchase money component only, and it has it down 18.01% year over year. They don't update at the speed of light, so they don't have this week's number yet. Needless to say, this week's update will not make things look rosier.
the key on future direction is the credit looseness and hence availability. if the liquidity pump keeps going you'll see some bottoming out shortly IMO. if rates go north of 7% you're looking at another sharp leg down.
Maxoutmama, Tanta or CR...are banks' earnings reflecting the mortgage decline? I would also expect the inverted yield curve to put a hurting on most banks' profitability.
Net interest margin has been a difficulty for banks all this year. Regarding earnings, it depends. You know, if you can move them off the books successfully there's still a lot of money in writing even the most eyebrow-raising mortgages. But I do think that the last sets of quarterlies showed that many are having problems moving the worst loans.
One way or another, most banks are still operating on the fee-based model.
Darn it! Middle age is getting to me. I showed up to comment that Pending Home sales confirm CR's comments on purchase money apps. The seasonally adjusted rate is back to 2003 territory, and the non-seasonally adjusted rate is -16.6% year over year. This is a strong correlation, and tends to confirm both surveys.
Also, the continuing drop in purchase-money apps doesn't bode well for October's pending home sales.
The Roubini slowdown continues to evolve. I don;t think anyone is too anxious to chain themselves to an expensive home right now. I think the purchase index is beginning to fall to a lower plateau to reflect that.
If I recall, Alan Greenspan called mortgage applications "the most important series".
Yes, but will global warming bail out the loan applications this year?
I thought this was interesting on weather predictions for this winter and economic consequences thereof, although mostly I liked the part about prognostication via caterpillars. A good read if you're sitting around next to the open patio door (on November 1!) eating leftover Halloween candy for breakfast (until you get to the caterpillar part, maybe.)
Morgan Stanley
CR, the purchase money applications are down more year over year. Hanley Wood's homebuilding stats page tracks the purchase money component only, and it has it down 18.01% year over year. They don't update at the speed of light, so they don't have this week's number yet. Needless to say, this week's update will not make things look rosier.
the key on future direction is the credit looseness and hence availability. if the liquidity pump keeps going you'll see some bottoming out shortly IMO. if rates go north of 7% you're looking at another sharp leg down.
Maxoutmama, Tanta or CR...are banks' earnings reflecting the mortgage decline? I would also expect the inverted yield curve to put a hurting on most banks' profitability.
Net interest margin has been a difficulty for banks all this year. Regarding earnings, it depends. You know, if you can move them off the books successfully there's still a lot of money in writing even the most eyebrow-raising mortgages. But I do think that the last sets of quarterlies showed that many are having problems moving the worst loans.
One way or another, most banks are still operating on the fee-based model.
Darn it! Middle age is getting to me. I showed up to comment that Pending Home sales confirm CR's comments on purchase money apps. The seasonally adjusted rate is back to 2003 territory, and the non-seasonally adjusted rate is -16.6% year over year. This is a strong correlation, and tends to confirm both surveys.
Also, the continuing drop in purchase-money apps doesn't bode well for October's pending home sales.
Thanks MaxoutOut