Gallup: Homeowners Still Optimistic on Prices
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Mon, 11/13/2006 - 12:38pm (17 comments)
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CR,
Only 16% of the 27% (1 in 4) actually acted on it. So the numbers are much less.
Angela
"Only 16% of the 27% (1 in 4) actually acted on it. So the numbers are much less."
I interpret the same way, thus the survey only accounts for 3,5 million homes being sold during the last year by the home owner. It looks like the report underestimates homeowner homes on sale during the last year.
Angela, it looks like I misinterpreted the numbers. 16% of 27% makes no sense at all - as anon noted that would be about 3.5 million homes - far less than were actually sold. I guess I'll remove some of that text.
Thanks for the correction.
Best to all.
I'm a little overmedicated today, so don't be too mean to me if this is something I ought to know--but is the NAR number total existing home sales or owner-occupied existing home sales? I had assumed it was total, so some number of investor/vacant/speculator bailouts needed to be subtracted from sales and inventory to be comparable to a survey of homeowners. Does that make sense?
Yikes, this scares me even more than home prices actually falling. If only 13% of those surveyed think their homes' values will fall next year, then a real fall will hit a lot of people hard if they don't prepare for it.
With Wal-Mart and other retailers engaging in a price war, it appears that there's still a long way down to rock bottom as the fallout from the real-estate bust continues.
BTW: I dig how women are more realistic in their price assessments of their homes. Apparently it's not "macho" to say that your house will be falling in value despite considerable evidence to the contrary
It's okay if their homes don't appreciate as fast as they thought - after all their tech heavy 401Ks are going up 20% a year, right?
Man, retirement is just going to be the bomb!
"Median home prices will probably fall over the next year, however 84% of homeowners still expect their home values to increase or stay the same."
Public opinion is a lagging indicator. After all, 31% of the population still approves of how Bush is doing his job, even though it has been clear for years he was a total screw-up even when judged by Republican principles.
What we need is more government spending. I just hope the dems see the light. If the housing bubble cannot keep going somebody has to step up to the plate. It got be the government. I dont matter what the money is spent on, as long as it is spent and given to american workers who can turn around and buy chinese goods. (chinese goods distributed by american companies). Thats the way to transfer govt (deficit) money into corporate coffers. Big business needs to get the dems on their side. Lets keep the party going people!
What we need is more government spending.
Hey don't forget the tax cuts, need more tax cuts too.
Government spending on Iraq-related activities is already more than high enough, thank you very much.
CM -- we need it -- that's the only way we can transfer government printed money into the private sector. I.e. the govt borrows and spends by paying salaries to govt workers etc... these people then in turn go and buy goods made in china -- goods made by american companies. China lends the money they made to the american government. This is how big buisiness increases profits.
The problem is essentially this. Big american business moved virtually all of its manufacturing to China. This is great as they can make stuff way cheaper. However, the obvious problem with that is that they have to lay off american workers. But it is the american workers that are supposed to buy buying this stuff to begin with. So what do you got to do? Well -- just get the government to employ them. The other way is to create a housing bubble that will provide the missing employment.
As you can see. This involves a three way deal: Big Business + US Govt + Chinese Govt. You also need the Federal reserve to work with you on this as well.
Now since the housing bubble is all but dead -- the onus is on the govt to pick up the slack. I'm just worried that the dems dont see it that way.
If we dont see increased govt spending we will probably end up in a recession. But its not too late. If we see a pickup in govt spending and some tax cuts as dryfly suggest we should be fine.
Sharkbait, i don't want it. I'm going to be honest here, and I'm sorry if I offend some people, but I don't want any more moral hazard. I don't care if the unemployment rate goes to 15%. I don't want the government spending my future earnings just to numb the pain of a broken credit system. That doesn't address the true problem. Our country's wealth creation (and political) machine comes down to avoiding responsibility: issue debt in an attempt to grow, and if it fails, make someone in the future clean up the mess.
This is pure insanity. The boomers and Gen-Xers have bid up their houses so that Gen-Yers cannot afford them without taking on substantial financial risk, and you're proposing that we save them through more robbing of Gen-Y's future earnings?
Let the non-saving boomers die penniliess in the street, i say. They have seriously tried to stick it to my generation. No to more government spending, even if it brings a massive deflation.
The economy will always come back.
Let the non-saving boomers die penniliess in the street, i say
Ouch--such Swiftian harshness! And you say so because you are concerned about Gen Y? Listen: I would lash Gen Y to galley oars if doing so would enable them to pay my social security. I've been drained these many years to pay for the Greatest Gen and now the Boomers, so it's only fair the next gen should undergo similar unfairness.
Of course, Gen Y's prospects are already grim in an outsourced, service-based economy, which is the diseased byproduct of Darwinian social philosophies such as yours. We need better. May I propose we stop pretending that the massive underground economy is a "threat," grant citizenship to every illegal in the land, and start the FICA Fiesta? Olé!
CR,
First I must say I used to poll for Gallup, while working through graduate school. That said, I would argue this is still a lagging indicator and rather meaningless as to where the market is headed. Most hoomeowners are clueless as to what economic conditions are out there that will set them up for a fall. Yes I am a pessimist when it comes to the coming two years.(even longer) When ARM resets hit in 2007, like they have this year we will likely see 3 times the inventory, creating an explosion in inventory. Why so much, well $.6 trillion reset in 2006, while 1.3 trillion reset in 2007. Homeowners especially recent ones won't know what hit 'em.
satire sarcasm and straight up comedy. nice work.
What a group of fools in total denial?
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