Home Depot and Housing

I live 4 miles, 8 miles, 14 miles, and 16 miles from a Home Depot. I also live 12 and 16 miles from a Lowes.

Looks like Home Depot has discovered the upper bounds of saturation marketing.

"I don't think we've seen the bottom yet," Home Depot Chairman Robert Nardelli 11/14/06

"We continue to look for signs that a recovery is imminent but can't yet say that one is in sight," Robert I. Toll 11/13/06

"Total consumer credit fell by $1.20 billion in September" - Fed 11/07/06

Personal observations as a frequent Home Depot shopper; I am having a hard time getting what I want as the shelf and floor space is being crowded by high value added items instead of basics. Garden dept has "color bowls" for $20 but fewer flats of ground cover and those are more expensive. Lumber; dogear fence planks are expensive and hard to sort as half the space is taken up by preassembled fence panels wood and vinyl and metal all at high prices. PVC pipe cutting tool? Nope, lawn watering installion kit with cutter, reamer, scrapper, rougher, and other crap in a blister pack and high markup. And the bigger dollar items are obscene. Two brands of garage door opener and clear price fixing. Same for water heaters. Then there is the personell issue, the plumber or carpenter putting in extra income hours are long gne, the employees are all stereotype lifer retail drones now.

Doesn't look good.

state guidance for mortgages released!

CSBS Issues NTM Guidance
The Conference of State Bank Supervisors and the American Association of Residential Mortgage Regulatorshave distributed guidance to state agencies that regulate residential mortgage brokers and companies on the risks posed by nontraditional mortgage products. CSBS and AARMR encouraged the state regulatory agencies to adopt the guidance for the organizations they regulate. The CSBS/AARMR guidance is based upon an interagency guidance released on Sept. 29, 2006, by FDIC, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Reserve, the Office of Thrift Supervision and the National Credit Union Administration. The CSBS/AARMR guidance mirrors substantially the interagency guidance except for the deletion of sections that do not apply to nondepository institutions. “We are hopeful the interagency guidance and parallel state-issued guidance will serve to inform and protect consumers and enhance the safety and soundness of the industry,” said CSBS President and CEO Neil Milner. Consistent guidance for all market participants will provide an opportunity to gauge its influence on consumer behavior and the mortgage market, CSBS added.

http://www.csbs.org/Content/NavigationMenu/RegulatoryAffairs/FederalAgencyGuidanceDatabase/CSBS-AARMR_FINAL_GUIDANCE.pdf

the most shocking thing is the chart from hd since 2002 when they startet
a 13 billion $ buyback programm and have at the same time the "bubble" business of their lifetime.

this chart surprised me really. management for sure hasn´t done o good job!

immobilienblasen: Home Depot Net Income Falls First Time in Three Years

"I don't think we've seen the bottom yet,"

They probably fear many more ARM mortgages reseting next year. Less disposable income for consumption. But what if MEW declines?

Two brands of garage door opener and clear price fixing. Same for water heaters.

I sell parts to two companies fighting life-n-death struggles for shelf space at big boxes including HD. I can tell you absolutely for sure they do NOT officially price fix.

However they might as well - save us all time and money if they did.

The major competitors in many if not all commodities are so thoroughly immersed in each others designs & plans (via revolving door hiring, using the same subcontractors & supply chain & from direct edict from buyers @ HD, Lowes, etc.) that they know to nut-n-bolt penny what the competition is planning on releasing, when, price points and have an ante match and raise already in their own deck (so does their competitors a move ahead).

I've sat in these meetings - it is surreal.

On other threads when I mention 'technological convergence' and 'commoditization'... I didn't pick up those concepts in school. Its out there for god & everyone to see - if not on the factory floor try the aisles at HD.

Dryfly, yes. Perhaps I should have said "price point fixing". With just one model at each feature level they don't waste shelf space and by keeping two manufacturers they can play each other in the supply chain. It is indeed cutthroat. At least and only as far as I can tell they don't push loss leaders like some other big boxes.

Wish I could see YOY data for the East Palo Alto store. That would give me an idea about the local market.

I think I have you beat - 1.5 miles, 2 miles and a planned store .8 miles from me. That's in addition to Hollywood (6 miles) Mid-city (7 miles) and a couple of others I can't remember. You never have to drive far for a plumbing fixture in this town.

EProbert you certainly have me beat on geography. What about cachement? By that I mean where I live the 4 HDs

We have a HD and a Lowe's within 3 blocks of each other, they went in the same summer. I will ditto Cote's comments about availability of stuff and the prices. Although Lowes does better on LED flashlight bulbs. I miss the old hardware store that had stuff I needed to fix my old house but it couldn't compete with the big boxes for the big ticket items other people wanted.

As is not uncommon, the local L and HD are next door to one another. I am no longer surprised to see almost exactly the same stock at the same price - the exception tending to be, umm, "Store" brands in areas such as paint, and even there the similar items are within pennies for cost.

All those are Home Depots - I really can't fathom a business plan in which a store that relys on such volume requires such a density of stores. These are rather dense neighborhoods, but overall probably 70-80% renter, so their market should be pretty small.
The exception is Hollywood, which has the studios and prop houses as large customers.

I prefer Lowes, personally, it could just be perspective, but I can actually find someone to help me most times there. Unfortunately the nearest one of those is Burbank.

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