The foreclosures are starting to appear here in the San Fernando Valley.
For a real life example of what's going on in the market right now: house sold 8/05 for $745k, flipper put in the new bells and whistles (baths, granite, etc etc), tries to market it in the high 8s, no takers, ends up back to the bank by 9/06. On the market as an REO at $759k. Not selling. How many more "owners" like this one? What happens when the resets really take hold next year?
Blows my mind that someone can buy a house, rehab it, and lose it in foreclosure all in one year.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Thursday posted lower third-quarter profit and cut its outlook for the fourth quarter due to weak demand for home goods, sending the upscale retailer's shares down 8 percent.
Our (third-quarter) revenue growth of 3 percent was slightly below our expectations due to further softening in the Pottery Barn brand and increasing volatility of our other home furnishings brands," Howard Lester, chairman and chief executive officer, said in a statement.
"As both of these trends have continued into the fourth quarter, we are increasingly concerned about the 'home-related' macro-economic environment, as well as the competitive landscape -- which is becoming highly promotional," he said.
Shares of Williams-Sonoma fell $2.79 to $32.08 on the New York Stock Exchange.
People will look at these stats perceive that California has reached a bottom and is beginning a slow recovery in response to falling interest rates and declining inventory in many areas - sellers are pulling their properties off the market and waiting out the downturn, and it's working. The economy is perking up again and low unemployment is causing wages to rise.
I believe this is a vaild interpretation and could in fact be what's happening in the short term.
Unfortunately now it appears that stagnant prices have opened the door for foreclosures to come in and do their work. And I suspect rising defaults will overwhelm any recovery that might get started.
I don't think there's any way to avoid the fact that the market has been driven by people who can't afford the homes they bought... without the help of substantial price appreciation.
But, hey, wouldn't it be something if those Option ARMs worked out just fine afterall?
Well said. This brief respite threw me off a little but you make sense. I think the incentives are starting to sell houses for the builders and are giving them confidence that they can rid their inventory. This has delayed layoffs and will delay the foreclosures in mass due to job losses. The affordability crisis you speak of will be a slower, less dramatic process but just as effective. (Tsunami v.s. Tidal Wave). I think the price reductions in the new builders will make resale homes that much harder to unload, perhaps acclerating the problem when resets hit. Creative refi's like 125% LTV can push of the inevitable that much longer.
Once the supply overwhelms and the builders stop building, and job losses from construction and the elimination of MEW start to kick in...it will acclerate rapidly.
When that will happen is anyone's guess. I think the tide still going out and people are still walking out to pick up sea shells and flopping fish. Those in the know are running as fast as they can. Pretty soon everyone will start running when they see what's happening but the wave should be way too big to outrun.....
But then of course...it could all just turn out O.K. afterall.
But then of course...it could all just turn out O.K. afterall.
For me "O.K." would be the return of affordable housing in SoCal. At a 4% inflation, how many years of no appreciation will it take before a $900,000 starter home becomes affordable?
The article mentions 'speculator interest declining' and I wonder if they were as vigilant in reporting it when it was inclining.
Also what, exactly, is it?
Is it renters in SoCal finally giving in and visiting the showrooms?
I didn't think so.
Here in Silicon Valley, Santa Clara County y-o-y volume was negative for the 23rd straight month (since December, 2004) and 26th out of the last 27 months.
You can still get a $1M loan if you can fog a mirror here. No doc, neg-am, one day out of bankruptcy... no problem. Best Funding and Lenox Financial both advertise these conditions on the radio. All together, not individually.
Great blog with good informations and pictures.
Thank you for this interesting blog.
I have bookmarked it.
Greetz Franz from Limousinenservice in Munich
The foreclosures are starting to appear here in the San Fernando Valley.
For a real life example of what's going on in the market right now: house sold 8/05 for $745k, flipper put in the new bells and whistles (baths, granite, etc etc), tries to market it in the high 8s, no takers, ends up back to the bank by 9/06. On the market as an REO at $759k. Not selling. How many more "owners" like this one? What happens when the resets really take hold next year?
Blows my mind that someone can buy a house, rehab it, and lose it in foreclosure all in one year.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Thursday posted lower third-quarter profit and cut its outlook for the fourth quarter due to weak demand for home goods, sending the upscale retailer's shares down 8 percent.
Our (third-quarter) revenue growth of 3 percent was slightly below our expectations due to further softening in the Pottery Barn brand and increasing volatility of our other home furnishings brands," Howard Lester, chairman and chief executive officer, said in a statement.
"As both of these trends have continued into the fourth quarter, we are increasingly concerned about the 'home-related' macro-economic environment, as well as the competitive landscape -- which is becoming highly promotional," he said.
Shares of Williams-Sonoma fell $2.79 to $32.08 on the New York Stock Exchange.
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.
People will look at these stats perceive that California has reached a bottom and is beginning a slow recovery in response to falling interest rates and declining inventory in many areas - sellers are pulling their properties off the market and waiting out the downturn, and it's working. The economy is perking up again and low unemployment is causing wages to rise.
I believe this is a vaild interpretation and could in fact be what's happening in the short term.
Unfortunately now it appears that stagnant prices have opened the door for foreclosures to come in and do their work. And I suspect rising defaults will overwhelm any recovery that might get started.
I don't think there's any way to avoid the fact that the market has been driven by people who can't afford the homes they bought... without the help of substantial price appreciation.
But, hey, wouldn't it be something if those Option ARMs worked out just fine afterall?
AC,
Well said. This brief respite threw me off a little but you make sense. I think the incentives are starting to sell houses for the builders and are giving them confidence that they can rid their inventory. This has delayed layoffs and will delay the foreclosures in mass due to job losses. The affordability crisis you speak of will be a slower, less dramatic process but just as effective. (Tsunami v.s. Tidal Wave). I think the price reductions in the new builders will make resale homes that much harder to unload, perhaps acclerating the problem when resets hit. Creative refi's like 125% LTV can push of the inevitable that much longer.
Once the supply overwhelms and the builders stop building, and job losses from construction and the elimination of MEW start to kick in...it will acclerate rapidly.
When that will happen is anyone's guess. I think the tide still going out and people are still walking out to pick up sea shells and flopping fish. Those in the know are running as fast as they can. Pretty soon everyone will start running when they see what's happening but the wave should be way too big to outrun.....
But then of course...it could all just turn out O.K. afterall.
Fritz
But then of course...it could all just turn out O.K. afterall.
For me "O.K." would be the return of affordable housing in SoCal. At a 4% inflation, how many years of no appreciation will it take before a $900,000 starter home becomes affordable?
The article mentions 'speculator interest declining' and I wonder if they were as vigilant in reporting it when it was inclining.
Also what, exactly, is it?
Is it renters in SoCal finally giving in and visiting the showrooms?
I didn't think so.
Adjusted for the population or the amount of housing stock its well below the 1997 sales figures.
David
Bubble Meter Blog
Here in Silicon Valley, Santa Clara County y-o-y volume was negative for the 23rd straight month (since December, 2004) and 26th out of the last 27 months.
We also track housing permits issued at:
this
We will soon publish an updated "The last 30 days," so please stay tuned.
Thanks!
I like the statistic that "http://www.bubbleinfo.com/" showed.
The stats are for Carlsbad, Oceanside, and Vista (92084).
The average list price of the active listings is $340 per square foot, and
The closed sales this month average $294 per square foot.
This looks like strong evidence that most sellers have priced themselves out of the market.
Average sale price is 13.5% less than average list price.
Deb...
Casey Serin of Foreclosure Assistance – Foreclosure Information – Free Help is going to do it 6 times in a year.
You can still get a $1M loan if you can fog a mirror here. No doc, neg-am, one day out of bankruptcy... no problem. Best Funding and Lenox Financial both advertise these conditions on the radio. All together, not individually.
John Doe.
No doc, neg-am, one day out of bankruptcy... no problem.
I can understand that... its the giving them the loan one day BEFORE bankruptcy I can't fathom.
its the giving them the loan one day BEFORE bankruptcy I can't fathom.
"sophistication". It is all very complicated. You wouldn't understand.
Great blog with good informations and pictures.
Thank you for this interesting blog.
I have bookmarked it.
Greetz Franz from
Limousinenservice in Munich