There are mixed signals about this slowdown. However, refinance applications are still high, and as along as consumer have access to home equity, the economy will keep going.
I think the new lending guidelines are going to put a stop to a lot of this refinancing, so in 1-2 quarters, the slowdown should be obvious.
Remember the economy is giant ship which is slow to stop and then go in reverse (recession). The ship is definitely slowing signiifcantly (look at 2Q GDP numbers).
Can we be sure unemployment stats tell the full story about how the economy is doing?
For example, most hi-tech companies have outsourced manufacturing and 'non-essential' development to foreign contractors. When things slow, they simply don't order as much, or cancel contracts. It's the foreign workers who get laid off, not locals. At least, not until things get really bad.
Mind you, I don't know what effect that has on the US economy. Clearly it has a negative effect on the economies of China, India, Taiwan, Singapore etc.
GDP is showing the slowdown. still i wouldn't expect anything to show up in the trend #'s for another 6-9 months. by mid 2007 it will be clear the housing effect was an effect after all as it's diminished impact on the economy is obvious.
kohn's comment surprised me... doesn't he realize the effects of the board's monetary policies are lagged by up to 18 months?
as for mortgage applications, it actually doesn't surprise me that applications were stronger... they will probably be pretty strong coming up to year end as the folks who have an option-ARM/IO
cluster&%$# mortgage try to refi with anyone who has a pulse and a fixed rate to get away from the resets and payment shock... i don't think a lot of them will qualify, but that won't stop them from trying to refi their way out of the bind they're in... sad, but highly likely to be the case...
The unemployment data comes from the states with a short delay. It is good for monitoring layoffs, but does not, of course help with new hiring. We believe there is a correlation.
Fellow readers may enjoy looking at a chart of this at our web site, The Payroll Employment Game which includes unemployment data and other predictive factors for non-farm payroll employment. Please try out the game. We welcome comments, since we are trying to build a useful educational tool. Thanks -
Don't agree with that AP "report" those 'institutions" reports. Indications are Retail was weak and consumption weak in September. Completely political report. "Thomas" Financial especially is crooked.
and lasty, the BLS, is the most corrupt institution inside the government right now. Completely political hacks. The entire department needs to be overhauled and its "numbers" re-evaluated by outside parties. The lies they have spun, are incredible.
Wow, slow down Insider. Actually, I agree. We heard the same spin in August and it wasn't nearly as good as they predicted. Though I contribute it to the slowdown in general which seems to cause downward revisions...................Read Roubini's article on consumption, much more sobering and gives other indicators that rejects the AP's report.
As for claims, it takes awhile for that to sweep into the system. First, you have declining job growth(lol, we have so far to go), then when claims start rising, the NBER(spelling?) declares a recession, or something close to that.
There are mixed signals about this slowdown. However, refinance applications are still high, and as along as consumer have access to home equity, the economy will keep going.
I think the new lending guidelines are going to put a stop to a lot of this refinancing, so in 1-2 quarters, the slowdown should be obvious.
Roubini predicts a recession by Q1 or Q2 or 07.
how does the government collect unemployment claim data? directly from states?
thank
Remember the economy is giant ship which is slow to stop and then go in reverse (recession). The ship is definitely slowing signiifcantly (look at 2Q GDP numbers).
The recession is coming.
Can we be sure unemployment stats tell the full story about how the economy is doing?
For example, most hi-tech companies have outsourced manufacturing and 'non-essential' development to foreign contractors. When things slow, they simply don't order as much, or cancel contracts. It's the foreign workers who get laid off, not locals. At least, not until things get really bad.
Mind you, I don't know what effect that has on the US economy. Clearly it has a negative effect on the economies of China, India, Taiwan, Singapore etc.
GDP is showing the slowdown. still i wouldn't expect anything to show up in the trend #'s for another 6-9 months. by mid 2007 it will be clear the housing effect was an effect after all as it's diminished impact on the economy is obvious.
kohn's comment surprised me... doesn't he realize the effects of the board's monetary policies are lagged by up to 18 months?
as for mortgage applications, it actually doesn't surprise me that applications were stronger... they will probably be pretty strong coming up to year end as the folks who have an option-ARM/IO
cluster&%$# mortgage try to refi with anyone who has a pulse and a fixed rate to get away from the resets and payment shock... i don't think a lot of them will qualify, but that won't stop them from trying to refi their way out of the bind they're in... sad, but highly likely to be the case...
The unemployment data comes from the states with a short delay. It is good for monitoring layoffs, but does not, of course help with new hiring. We believe there is a correlation.
Fellow readers may enjoy looking at a chart of this at our web site, The Payroll Employment Game which includes unemployment data and other predictive factors for non-farm payroll employment. Please try out the game. We welcome comments, since we are trying to build a useful educational tool. Thanks -
Retailers didn't "report" strong gains. That is a outright lie by the AP. Matter of fact, consumption was not good.
Don't agree with that AP "report" those 'institutions" reports. Indications are Retail was weak and consumption weak in September. Completely political report. "Thomas" Financial especially is crooked.
and lasty, the BLS, is the most corrupt institution inside the government right now. Completely political hacks. The entire department needs to be overhauled and its "numbers" re-evaluated by outside parties. The lies they have spun, are incredible.
Wow, slow down Insider. Actually, I agree. We heard the same spin in August and it wasn't nearly as good as they predicted. Though I contribute it to the slowdown in general which seems to cause downward revisions...................Read Roubini's article on consumption, much more sobering and gives other indicators that rejects the AP's report.
As for claims, it takes awhile for that to sweep into the system. First, you have declining job growth(lol, we have so far to go), then when claims start rising, the NBER(spelling?) declares a recession, or something close to that.
It could have been weather related ... but still. The consumer is still willing to spend.