The big downturn in housing hasn't really started yet. But the sales numbers are already looking like the worst of the last collapse.
We ain't seen nothing yet!
WildJohnny, You have an extra zero ... median prices rose $3K in LA last month.
"The median price of all Los Angeles houses and condominiums that closed escrow in July reached a record $520,000,... virtually flat when compared to June's median of $517,000."
Or you meant $30K from a year ago, but most of that appreciation was in '05. Also, I expect these markets to follow San Diego's lead ... and prices should start to fall soon.
Johnny, Unless you've sold a home in SoCal the last month it's moot. The delemma we're ALL facing is the impact the slowing housing market will have on our economy. If you've taken a position, good luck; if not, jump in.
CR, Pimco's Scott Simon, in an Aug. update Q&A on housing relays this astounding info.:
"Simon: In the first quarter of 2006, Freddie Mac data showed that 88% of refinancing was equity take-out refinancing, which is about the highest its ever been. Even more interesting, and something weve never seen before, was the fact that in more than 50% of the equity take-out refinancings, the homeowner refinanced into a higher rate to take out equity. So people continue to literally use their houses as an ATM machine."
Let's repeat that: "in more than 50% of the equity take-out refinancings, the homeowner refinanced into a higher rate to take out equity."
AMAZING, Simply AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
it was the weather, stupid!!!! don't you people know how hot it has been? clients don't want to buy homes when it is so hot? it is always the weather!! it is either too hot, or it is too cold, or it is too wet. we just don't seem to have the weather for real estate sales these days. don't call this the bubble, it is what it is, bad weather!!!
(for the sarcasm impaired, the above was meant just as that.)
in more than 50% of the equity take-out refinancings, the homeowner refinanced into a higher rate to take out equity
Also, from Bloomberg: Consumer credit, or non-mortgage loans to individuals, rose $10.27 billion [in June], or 5.7 percent at an annual rate, to $2.19 trillion, the Fed said. The surge in borrowing was nearly triple what economists expected.
Folks are desperate for cash and are getting it anyway they can the future be damned. It's a hard rain's a-gonna fall
ocrenter: As somebody who came to California a few years ago from a region that has messy weather much of the year, I can attest to the fact that one gets thoroughly spoiled by a consistently good and mostly pleasant climate.
Here in the SF bay area, this year we had an unusually long rain season that went rather far into spring, and I genuinely believe this delayed the "spring season". But since that ended, I cannot see any more excuses. Even so, in my larger neighborhood it was not a matter of buyers staying away "because of the weather", but of rather few open houses.
Only as of the last few weeks I'm seeing more signs.
Fredw, thx.
CR, a HUGE outstanding question is the impact of Glass-Steagall's repeal on credit expansion. (Yes, our infamous power-groupy AG front ran the Senate hearings.)
The same holding companies own the Credit card issuers who besiege us daily with 0% interest come-ons own the banks who push us down the aisle to their (non-FDIC backed) Brokerage affiliates.
Oh, darn. LA and OC prices rose a mere YoY 30k+ last month.
The big downturn in housing hasn't really started yet. But the sales numbers are already looking like the worst of the last collapse.
We ain't seen nothing yet!
WildJohnny, You have an extra zero ... median prices rose $3K in LA last month.
"The median price of all Los Angeles houses and condominiums that closed escrow in July reached a record $520,000,... virtually flat when compared to June's median of $517,000."
Or you meant $30K from a year ago, but most of that appreciation was in '05. Also, I expect these markets to follow San Diego's lead ... and prices should start to fall soon.
Best Wishes.
Uhm, YoY = Year over Year.
You're welcome.
Johnny, Unless you've sold a home in SoCal the last month it's moot. The delemma we're ALL facing is the impact the slowing housing market will have on our economy. If you've taken a position, good luck; if not, jump in.
CR, Pimco's Scott Simon, in an Aug. update Q&A on housing relays this astounding info.:
"Simon: In the first quarter of 2006, Freddie Mac data showed that 88% of refinancing was equity take-out refinancing, which is about the highest its ever been. Even more interesting, and something weve never seen before, was the fact that in more than 50% of the equity take-out refinancings, the homeowner refinanced into a higher rate to take out equity. So people continue to literally use their houses as an ATM machine."
Let's repeat that: "in more than 50% of the equity take-out refinancings, the homeowner refinanced into a higher rate to take out equity."
AMAZING, Simply AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Let's repeat that: "in more than 50% of the equity take-out refinancings, the homeowner refinanced into a higher rate to take out equity."
How else are they going to live the 'American Dream' if they don't have the money? Rob a bank?
/sarcasm
it was the weather, stupid!!!! don't you people know how hot it has been? clients don't want to buy homes when it is so hot? it is always the weather!! it is either too hot, or it is too cold, or it is too wet. we just don't seem to have the weather for real estate sales these days. don't call this the bubble, it is what it is, bad weather!!!
(for the sarcasm impaired, the above was meant just as that.)
Johnny, Oops, sorry. The second half of my response applies.
bailey, those stats are amazing. Homeowners will keep borrowing as long as they can.
Best to All.
in more than 50% of the equity take-out refinancings, the homeowner refinanced into a higher rate to take out equity
Also, from Bloomberg: Consumer credit, or non-mortgage loans to individuals, rose $10.27 billion [in June], or 5.7 percent at an annual rate, to $2.19 trillion, the Fed said. The surge in borrowing was nearly triple what economists expected.
Folks are desperate for cash and are getting it anyway they can the future be damned. It's a hard rain's a-gonna fall
This sounds like a joke but it aint: 73 weeks on the market: from nytimes.com
200 East 69th Street
(Trump Palace)
1-bedroom, 1½-bath, 990-sq.-ft. condo in a 6-year-old building; 24-hr. doormen, concierge; common charge $1,316; taxes $10,860; listed at $1.395 million, 73 weeks on market (broker: Corcoran Group)
ocrenter: As somebody who came to California a few years ago from a region that has messy weather much of the year, I can attest to the fact that one gets thoroughly spoiled by a consistently good and mostly pleasant climate.
Here in the SF bay area, this year we had an unusually long rain season that went rather far into spring, and I genuinely believe this delayed the "spring season". But since that ended, I cannot see any more excuses. Even so, in my larger neighborhood it was not a matter of buyers staying away "because of the weather", but of rather few open houses.
Only as of the last few weeks I'm seeing more signs.
Fredw, thx.
CR, a HUGE outstanding question is the impact of Glass-Steagall's repeal on credit expansion. (Yes, our infamous power-groupy AG front ran the Senate hearings.)
The same holding companies own the Credit card issuers who besiege us daily with 0% interest come-ons own the banks who push us down the aisle to their (non-FDIC backed) Brokerage affiliates.