Yes, it will be nationwide. I am from Omaha, and when I visited this summer, I saw the housing problems there too. Highest foreclosure and inventory in the 26 years the realtor is in business, one of the 2 big builders committed suicide because his financing dried up, overbuilding, resale homes slashed with Price Reduced and Under Market Value signs, no showings on homes for months on end, a discount mortgage company on every corner.
The odd thing is: Omaha, NE has been rising with inflation, not more.
Yet, the high inventory and foreclosures are precursors to price drops. Yesterday I read that they had a -5.5% price change over the last year.
John Talbott was right when he wrote Sell Now. This will be nationwide.
The NAR report for the second quarter had a key piece of info at the bottom. Price declines have already started in the Midwest. The region is down 2 percent YOY. The non-bubble areas aren't just going to get hit, they are leading the train over the cliff.
Having spent a couple of years in Texas recently, here's my take on the Dallas situation right now - Texas cities haven't seen large price increases during the bubble due to capacity and widespread fear of rising home prices that still persists after the late 80s bust. BUT loose lending standards have allowed people who couldn't afford to buy homes in ordinary circumstances to become homeowners.
I think these homeowners didn't get rescued (temporarily) by the added income that rising prices have provided to unqualified homebuyers in other areas... so they're defaulting sooner.
A nationwide decline is already happening. Have to pull teeth for the NAR and other pump organizations to admit it.
Anyone buying at this point has to have their head examined.
Yes, anyone buying now that is a first time buyer you mean. If you alreay owned, and made a killing, well, you can always buy and sell your old one, but I wouldnt make the mistake of carrying two mortgages. Just remember, the money you think you made on your first house isnt all yours. So be very prudent about what you get yourself into. Basically, anyone owning a house now with less than 10% equity is in a world of hurt. And that is an awful lot of people, especially in the most bubblicious markets.
It's funny how you don't hear the canards of "they're not making new land." or "it's the zoned vs the unzoned regions."
Or any other crap that tried to justify the bubble.
Biggest yoy declines so far seem to be in MI and OH which has surprised me.... that does seem to show that most places will see declines. I guess if anywhere doesn't it is likely to be places like TN - i.e. southern states that didn't see big rises and have relatively strong economies.
Gee, Dallas, the capital of the oil patch isn't seeing as many problems as the rest of the country, I wonder why? If Dallas starts seeing problems in this sort of energy price environment then we really are in deep doo doo
I live in Dallas and this is nothing like the late 80's.
I agree. The economic distress is largely absent so far. And economic distress was there all along with the Texas bust since really the oil bust is what started it. So the current situation thus far seems very different.
What we have now is a downturn driven entirely by supply and psychological factors. But I think the economic distress is likely to come, and the situation will become more and more like Texas.
Today the real estate industry is to the US economy what the oil industry was to the Texas economy in the early/mid 80s.
The late 80's had a couple of issues. Obviously as ac and others have mentioned the oil bust hurt. But don't forget we had some serious banking and real estate issues as well (in part driven by the oil bust). In the late 80's it wasn't just people on the margin that were having difficulty, but the entire socio-economic strata had trouble. Today it's a little bit different due to the diversification of the Dallas (and Texas) economy. It's much less oil dependent than fifteen or twenty years ago. I am looking over downtown Dallas from the eighteenth floor of an office building and count 7 contruction cranes. A couple are new office towers but the rest are upscale high-rise developments. The W, Ritz-Carlton, The Palomar, etc. Some of these things are sold out prior to completion! The cost of living here is so cheap outsiders cannot believe it. There has been some price deflation in suburban Dallas but the inner city is still holding it's value. We haven't experienced anything close to what the coasts are going thru in terms of residential real estate. But, who knows what will happen in the future. If I did I wouldn't be working or living in Dallas!
Today it's a little bit different due to the diversification of the Dallas (and Texas) economy.
I think Texas is in better economic shape than a lot of the US. I'm much more concerned about the coasts. When I was referring to the situation becoming more like Texas in the 80s I was referring more to the US as a whole, especially the real estate hot zones.
In fact, I first became aware of the bubble when I moved from Texas to the east coast and was stunned by how much home prices had gone up (relative to TX prices) since I'd last been there.
But I still believe more people in TX have bought homes the cannot afford in recent years due to easy credit. I think this will cause foreclosures and excess supply, but nothing like what other areas will have.
Im not in Dallas, but pretty much straight up I-35 three hours drive (well, as long as you dont have brush fires that shut down I-35 for seven hours like they did this week.) Anyway,while housing markets bubbles may be local, low interest rates and exotic loans have been nationwide. Why on earth, with house prices as low as they are in the Oklahoma City area, would anyone get an ARM? But plenty of people have. The upshot has been folks moving into houses they basically cant afford, wherever they live.
I live in Dallas - Its nothing like the
. In the 80's the rich were suffering. Houses couldnt sell in affluent neighborhoods. There were tons for sale. The atmosphere here is ..the rich are still rich and getting richer. The poor will get poorer. There is a building pause- except for the affluent- who still are building 12,000(outrageously extreme mega homes) plus square foot homes .....
You're barking, old man.
Yes, it will be nationwide. I am from Omaha, and when I visited this summer, I saw the housing problems there too. Highest foreclosure and inventory in the 26 years the realtor is in business, one of the 2 big builders committed suicide because his financing dried up, overbuilding, resale homes slashed with Price Reduced and Under Market Value signs, no showings on homes for months on end, a discount mortgage company on every corner.
The odd thing is: Omaha, NE has been rising with inflation, not more.
Yet, the high inventory and foreclosures are precursors to price drops. Yesterday I read that they had a -5.5% price change over the last year.
John Talbott was right when he wrote Sell Now. This will be nationwide.
The NAR report for the second quarter had a key piece of info at the bottom. Price declines have already started in the Midwest. The region is down 2 percent YOY. The non-bubble areas aren't just going to get hit, they are leading the train over the cliff.
Having spent a couple of years in Texas recently, here's my take on the Dallas situation right now - Texas cities haven't seen large price increases during the bubble due to capacity and widespread fear of rising home prices that still persists after the late 80s bust. BUT loose lending standards have allowed people who couldn't afford to buy homes in ordinary circumstances to become homeowners.
I think these homeowners didn't get rescued (temporarily) by the added income that rising prices have provided to unqualified homebuyers in other areas... so they're defaulting sooner.
A nationwide decline is already happening. Have to pull teeth for the NAR and other pump organizations to admit it.
Anyone buying at this point has to have their head examined.
Yes, anyone buying now that is a first time buyer you mean. If you alreay owned, and made a killing, well, you can always buy and sell your old one, but I wouldnt make the mistake of carrying two mortgages. Just remember, the money you think you made on your first house isnt all yours. So be very prudent about what you get yourself into. Basically, anyone owning a house now with less than 10% equity is in a world of hurt. And that is an awful lot of people, especially in the most bubblicious markets.
It's funny how you don't hear the canards of "they're not making new land." or "it's the zoned vs the unzoned regions."
Or any other crap that tried to justify the bubble.
Biggest yoy declines so far seem to be in MI and OH which has surprised me.... that does seem to show that most places will see declines. I guess if anywhere doesn't it is likely to be places like TN - i.e. southern states that didn't see big rises and have relatively strong economies.
moom,
Michigan and Ohio. GM and Ford?
I live in Dallas and this is nothing like the late 80's.
Little John,
Could you elaborate?
Yet.
Gee, Dallas, the capital of the oil patch isn't seeing as many problems as the rest of the country, I wonder why? If Dallas starts seeing problems in this sort of energy price environment then we really are in deep doo doo
I live in Dallas and this is nothing like the late 80's.
I agree. The economic distress is largely absent so far. And economic distress was there all along with the Texas bust since really the oil bust is what started it. So the current situation thus far seems very different.
What we have now is a downturn driven entirely by supply and psychological factors. But I think the economic distress is likely to come, and the situation will become more and more like Texas.
Today the real estate industry is to the US economy what the oil industry was to the Texas economy in the early/mid 80s.
The late 80's had a couple of issues. Obviously as ac and others have mentioned the oil bust hurt. But don't forget we had some serious banking and real estate issues as well (in part driven by the oil bust). In the late 80's it wasn't just people on the margin that were having difficulty, but the entire socio-economic strata had trouble. Today it's a little bit different due to the diversification of the Dallas (and Texas) economy. It's much less oil dependent than fifteen or twenty years ago. I am looking over downtown Dallas from the eighteenth floor of an office building and count 7 contruction cranes. A couple are new office towers but the rest are upscale high-rise developments. The W, Ritz-Carlton, The Palomar, etc. Some of these things are sold out prior to completion! The cost of living here is so cheap outsiders cannot believe it. There has been some price deflation in suburban Dallas but the inner city is still holding it's value. We haven't experienced anything close to what the coasts are going thru in terms of residential real estate. But, who knows what will happen in the future. If I did I wouldn't be working or living in Dallas!
Today it's a little bit different due to the diversification of the Dallas (and Texas) economy.
I think Texas is in better economic shape than a lot of the US. I'm much more concerned about the coasts. When I was referring to the situation becoming more like Texas in the 80s I was referring more to the US as a whole, especially the real estate hot zones.
In fact, I first became aware of the bubble when I moved from Texas to the east coast and was stunned by how much home prices had gone up (relative to TX prices) since I'd last been there.
But I still believe more people in TX have bought homes the cannot afford in recent years due to easy credit. I think this will cause foreclosures and excess supply, but nothing like what other areas will have.
History repeats itself.
The Resolution Trust Corporation.
George Herbert Bush and Ronald Reagan (Dick Cheney,Donald Rumsfeld). The Republican party.
George W Bush, Dick Cheney, Don Rumsfeld.
Supply the economy with cheap money to build and economic miracles will happen.
The US Government aligns with Corporate America and the Big Banks.
Allan Greenspan.
Budget deficit spending.
Im not in Dallas, but pretty much straight up I-35 three hours drive (well, as long as you dont have brush fires that shut down I-35 for seven hours like they did this week.) Anyway,while housing markets bubbles may be local, low interest rates and exotic loans have been nationwide. Why on earth, with house prices as low as they are in the Oklahoma City area, would anyone get an ARM? But plenty of people have. The upshot has been folks moving into houses they basically cant afford, wherever they live.
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I think these homeowners didn't get rescued rc helicopter
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I live in Dallas - Its nothing like the
. In the 80's the rich were suffering. Houses couldnt sell in affluent neighborhoods. There were tons for sale. The atmosphere here is ..the rich are still rich and getting richer. The poor will get poorer. There is a building pause- except for the affluent- who still are building 12,000(outrageously extreme mega homes) plus square foot homes .....