Not sure here, is Stelzer calling his own article 'great'? What rubbish!!
If so, some of us would strongly disagree with the positive review AND question some of the financial incentives behind such a mild downturn scenario (Freddie Mac consultant, hey?). From the Weekly Standard, no doubt!
Housing will definitely lose value, this will definitely have a ripple effect, and the job losses and concomitant economic contraction will definitely be huge.
From Lowe's CEO: "Consumers are taking a bit of a breather."
From the Weekly Standard:
"Consultants at RealEstateabc.com, a consumer information website, agree: 'If it weren't for the high expectations of the last sales cycle, this might actually be a 'normal' market.'"
If I weren't so used to reading complete poppycock by now, my head might actually explode.
Funny how we've gone from "it's different this time" to "hey, this is just 'normal.'" Or maybe not; maybe this particular "normal market" (read "reversion to the mean") is going to be different! That's it! That's the ticket! We're taking a breather! Just a nice, orderly retreat! Put the house keys down, and nobody gets hurt . . .
Greenland's glaciers have been shrinking for 100 years: study
Aug 21 3:18 PM US/Eastern
Greenland's glaciers have been shrinking for the past century, according to a Danish study, suggesting that the ice melt is not a recent phenomenon caused by global warming.
MtM retail sales were down in May/June but had a YoY increase of 1.02%, far below the previous 3-4% increases we've seen so far. There was a prior period of significant drops in retail sales from Jul-Sep05, which might be summer slowdowns ? But overall the data show retail shows is clearly slowing from the beginning of this year to now. However based on quarterly YOY% changes Retail Sales appears to be following a slight downtrend along with consumption and the economy.
So it despite the sudden change in headline rhetoric from all things are well to the sky is falling the underlying data have been the same over the last year or so. That is a slowing and downtrend have been visible for that long.
Whether it accumulates and causes a sudden fall then becomes the question.
slowing housing, persistently high energy and 17 consecutive rate hikes will have it's effect. the question is how much and for how long. frankly i'm surprised things have held up so far but as history teaches us these drops can come hard and fast. look at the housing market in january compared to just 8 months later? what will another 9-12 months do further erosion? now's now the time to test the waters.
DaveL, are those "real" or nominal numbers? Unit prices for groceries and staple goods/services have gone up a bit yoy as well. If gas is included, I would doubt the 1%.
Great Article:
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CR-
Notable that median CPI as reported by the Cleveland Fed was 3.3%. If SSS is not growing by more than CPI, than the retailers are just treading water.
Not sure here, is Stelzer calling his own article 'great'? What rubbish!!
If so, some of us would strongly disagree with the positive review AND question some of the financial incentives behind such a mild downturn scenario (Freddie Mac consultant, hey?). From the Weekly Standard, no doubt!
Housing will definitely lose value, this will definitely have a ripple effect, and the job losses and concomitant economic contraction will definitely be huge.
neoCON, your days are numbered.
From Lowe's CEO: "Consumers are taking a bit of a breather."
From the Weekly Standard:
"Consultants at RealEstateabc.com, a consumer information website, agree: 'If it weren't for the high expectations of the last sales cycle, this might actually be a 'normal' market.'"
If I weren't so used to reading complete poppycock by now, my head might actually explode.
Funny how we've gone from "it's different this time" to "hey, this is just 'normal.'" Or maybe not; maybe this particular "normal market" (read "reversion to the mean") is going to be different! That's it! That's the ticket! We're taking a breather! Just a nice, orderly retreat! Put the house keys down, and nobody gets hurt . . .
Tanta-- LMAO - "Put the keys down and nobody gets hurt" You are in rare form- so glad you're back. Wish you well!.
Greenland's glaciers have been shrinking for 100 years: study
Aug 21 3:18 PM US/Eastern
Greenland's glaciers have been shrinking for the past century, according to a Danish study, suggesting that the ice melt is not a recent phenomenon caused by global warming.
Link-http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/08/21/060821191826.o0mynclv.html
MtM retail sales were down in May/June but had a YoY increase of 1.02%, far below the previous 3-4% increases we've seen so far. There was a prior period of significant drops in retail sales from Jul-Sep05, which might be summer slowdowns ? But overall the data show retail shows is clearly slowing from the beginning of this year to now. However based on quarterly YOY% changes Retail Sales appears to be following a slight downtrend along with consumption and the economy.
So it despite the sudden change in headline rhetoric from all things are well to the sky is falling the underlying data have been the same over the last year or so. That is a slowing and downtrend have been visible for that long.
Whether it accumulates and causes a sudden fall then becomes the question.
slowing housing, persistently high energy and 17 consecutive rate hikes will have it's effect. the question is how much and for how long. frankly i'm surprised things have held up so far but as history teaches us these drops can come hard and fast. look at the housing market in january compared to just 8 months later? what will another 9-12 months do further erosion? now's now the time to test the waters.
Tanta, welcome back.
DaveL, are those "real" or nominal numbers? Unit prices for groceries and staple goods/services have gone up a bit yoy as well. If gas is included, I would doubt the 1%.
Greenland's glaciers have been melting for 100 years BECAUSE of global warming. Mercy, that was silly on this thread............
CM - just double checked and they're supposed to be the time-series for 'Real Retail Sales' (I use the St. Louis Fed site to dload the data)
DaveL: Thanks.