Now sellers in many areas of the country are pricing to reflect current market realities. As a result, there could be some lift to home sales, but itll likely take some months for price appreciation to rise.
Hahaha
"itll likely take some months for price appreciation to rise.
Now isn't this "large decline" being compared to a relatively slow month last year? It seems like the numbers for August could really be dire given that we hit a secondary peak last year in August... looking at the last chart.
Lereah and Bernanke are surely tools, of the current administration. But at this point it appears that things are spiraling out of their control. A hard landing and recession now seem a certainty. Time will tell on how bad this could become- it surprises me that stocks are not down more- I guess those wall street wags never throw in the towel till the market drops 2000 points by the end of October.
Hi, Would love to see inventory plotted on the same chart as sales. Based on a very rough calculation, it looks like we are up over 50% since June 2005 for inventory! So, even if there was no decrease in sales, the inventory will start to kill median and average prices.
For DC YOY:
Total Sales down 21.11%
Avg Sales Price down 2.31%
Median Sold Price down 3.45%
Avg DOM up 82.14%
Avg List Price for Solds up 1.13%
Avg Sale as a % of Avg Ask Price down from 99.55% to 96.17%
I've heard SoCal inventory is well above 10 months, even as high as 13 months+ in some communities. Yesterday I was told tiny, upscale Villa park had 39 homes for sale, all with asking prices above $1mm & NO homes pending sale!
I'm a longtime reader of the site, and a first time poster. Do you happen to have the data on inventory (both the raw numbers and the months supply) going back further than 03? It would be incredibly interesting to see a longer time series. I've looked at the NAR website as well as the census.gov site but can't get any inventory data back any longer than what you have listed in your graph.
Thanks as always for all the good work and insights!
CR,
I remember sometime ago that you had discussed the number of new home sales and what it meant to the economy in general. There was a certain number you were looking for, but I cant remember. If I were to guess it would be sales volume below 1.2 million? What is the number again? Have we reached it and what does it indicate.
Thanks,
Kirk
Now sellers in many areas of the country are pricing to reflect current market realities. As a result, there could be some lift to home sales, but itll likely take some months for price appreciation to rise.
Hahaha
"itll likely take some months for price appreciation to rise.
Anything for a buck
Now isn't this "large decline" being compared to a relatively slow month last year? It seems like the numbers for August could really be dire given that we hit a secondary peak last year in August... looking at the last chart.
Good grief. Lereah is such a tool. Would that pathologic obfuscation were a crime.
Lereah and Bernanke are surely tools, of the current administration. But at this point it appears that things are spiraling out of their control. A hard landing and recession now seem a certainty. Time will tell on how bad this could become- it surprises me that stocks are not down more- I guess those wall street wags never throw in the towel till the market drops 2000 points by the end of October.
Hi, Would love to see inventory plotted on the same chart as sales. Based on a very rough calculation, it looks like we are up over 50% since June 2005 for inventory! So, even if there was no decrease in sales, the inventory will start to kill median and average prices.
"Good grief. Lereah is such a tool. Would that pathologic obfuscation were a crime."
I think that intentionally giving out misleading financial information is a crime.
For DC YOY:
Total Sales down 21.11%
Avg Sales Price down 2.31%
Median Sold Price down 3.45%
Avg DOM up 82.14%
Avg List Price for Solds up 1.13%
Avg Sale as a % of Avg Ask Price down from 99.55% to 96.17%
Inventory at highest levels since 1997
I've heard SoCal inventory is well above 10 months, even as high as 13 months+ in some communities. Yesterday I was told tiny, upscale Villa park had 39 homes for sale, all with asking prices above $1mm & NO homes pending sale!
Hi CR -
I'm a longtime reader of the site, and a first time poster. Do you happen to have the data on inventory (both the raw numbers and the months supply) going back further than 03? It would be incredibly interesting to see a longer time series. I've looked at the NAR website as well as the census.gov site but can't get any inventory data back any longer than what you have listed in your graph.
Thanks as always for all the good work and insights!
CR,
I remember sometime ago that you had discussed the number of new home sales and what it meant to the economy in general. There was a certain number you were looking for, but I cant remember. If I were to guess it would be sales volume below 1.2 million? What is the number again? Have we reached it and what does it indicate.
Thanks,
Kirk