Being 10 hours behind yet a full day ahead gives us here in Oz an unfair advantage when it comes to declaring First to these early morning posts ... but, well, FIRST!
AAAAAAAARRRGGGHHH! where is my 12 gauge?I didn' want to look in the mirror until 5 AM,so I was delighted to see a Tanta post.Now I need Valium,not coffee.Me,I'm going eat me some hashbrowns and liver,cast a few silver slugs and go hunting for these here undead innovators...if the silver bullets don't work I'll crucify the buggers on a cross of Gold.
Reagan wouldn't have called anyone a "czar", it would have had a negative connotation. Now people are so brain-dead they think it has a cool ring to it. The Czar of Stupid is running the WH.
Yeah, well, I'm not interested until we have so many czars that we need a Czar Czar, then I'll apply. Sure, we used to call that the "Chief Executive," but why would a country like the U.S. not model itself on pre-revolutionary Russian absolute monarchs?
It looks to me as if Congress has decided to appoint itself as Mortgage Czar. Up for what is expected to be a bipartisan vote is an amendment to the Internal Revenue Code that will eliminate the imposition of income tax on debt forgiven by a lender pursuant to a short sale or reworking of the loan. Who couldn't see this coming, huh?
But here's the part that really galls me: Apparently, the House version of this bill makes the change permanent. The tax code has always been used by Congress for social engineering (read: vote baiting) as much as for revenue building, and here's a dangerous and misguided example.
So, based on Washington DC area prices, Citi has decided to do about 400 mortgages of this type in that area.
And isn't $200 million a rounding error type of number for Citi?
I assumed that new money and new plans for mortgages would be aimed at helping people currently with ARM's that are resetting refinance into something that they can continue to pay.
If I am reading this correctly, this program is aimed at "helping" people with weak credit buy homes (that are overprice and declining in value). This would help some distressed sellers, but I don't see how it will do much for housing problems.
I am pretty certain that that is the first time the phrase "theocratic absolutist ukases" and "pajamas" has ever appeared in the same paragraph much less the same paragraph of a financial blog.
Could someone please fill me in on what has changed so much that now the credit crisis is being viewed as largely history? From what I can see we have :
1) slightly lower rates, but still higher interbank rates
2) still no pricing of many mark to model instruments
3) a few large but not disastrous hits to earnings from a couple of big players' writedowns
4) perhaps a wee bit of loosening back up in mortgage credit terms ("stated is back") although this is debatable
5) irrational exuberance supreme in the equity markets
6) a resurgence of commodity bubbles
etc etc
Now, my question is, what are the new assumptions that are being made about housing? (which if I am not mistaken, was the source of this mess in the first place.) As I can see it, whatever the price outlook was for homes when subprime hit, it has if anything gotten markedly worse in the subsequent months, and continues to deteriorate.
Given that there are a ton of resets out there, and given that the mortgage modification trend will do close to zero to mitigate that upcoming problem, and given that prices are sliding fast, making a larger share (than previously expected) of these likely to default, it would seem to me that the credit crisis is likely just in a lull, rather than over.
Anyone else think this would be a good topic for a CR post? Id really like to see some opinions from many of the more informed readers here.
Anyone have an idea when should I go short again ?
HRB is up, BKUNA is down, FED and DSL are up, CFC about the same HB are down and up (since I covered) and I still can not figure out where the market is going.
I think many old favorite shorts ran their course until clear losses and prjection for future losses will emarge _ i don;t see this as of yet although I know it must be coming.
It seems that the market no longer anticipate it trades lower only when losses are proven.
well, after a RIDICULOUS run, XHB is heading back down today. But seriously, given what has been happening in the housing market recently, and the prospects for rate cuts making ANY difference, can someone here make a reasonable argument why XHB was up about 20% over the course of the previous days?
I suggest using a 5-day stochastic--shorting when it goes to 80 or above and covering when it goes to below 20 and turns up. This has "predicted" the HB stocks nicely.
To qualify for the program, a person must be in the country legally and have alternate credit lines -- such as rental payments, utility bills or a tithing record -- that a lender can use to evaluate creditworthiness.
How can a TITHING record be a credit line ? Tithe rents as a source of income was abolished in the UK way back, (200 years ago?) - and did it ever exist in the USA ? I thought tithing in the USA was when you GAVE money to your church - with no conditions attached - so how can it be a credit line ?
The logic for establishing credit worthiness - that if you have money to give away means you HAVE money - would be tenuous, to say the least.
Alright Tanta, if you refuse to be named Mortgage Czar, then how about if we just name you Honorary Blogger Czar (Honorary because we don't want to impose on the REAL originator here) and you can STAY in your pajamas and tell us all what to do, as usual? But we have to address you as HBC, or at least think of you respectfully before we post a comment.
I thought tithing in the USA was when you GAVE money to your church - with no conditions attached - so how can it be a credit line ?
Perhaps there are enough religious institutions in the DC area that have clergy that might qualify. Looking in many downtown areas I see a lot of "storefront" churches. If I'm not mistaken, there was a minister(?) in that Jamaica Plains foreclosure posting on this blog a few months ago.
Perhaps there are enough religious institutions in the DC area that have clergy that might qualify
Ahhhh.. so tithing is the PASTOR's ( not the church's ) income ! Didn't think of that! These one-man churches are so outside my experience ( I just think Catholic, CofE, WeeFree's and that's it.
if it's just going to involve a bunch of posturing with no ability to imprison dissidents,
It occurs to me you could just call them financial enemy combatants and stick them in Guantanamo, as far as I know there's not much legal oversight. Just a thought.
The idea is that the person agreed to pay installments, and then did so, on time. So you show that you entered into an agreement with your church to make a tithe of some amount each month, and you show cancelled checks or bank statements and receipts from the church that show such payments were in fact made for a year or more.
I don't know that I'd be thrilled about using it as an alternative to a tradeline, but why is that any whackier than giving someone with a FICO score a mortgage because they paid on a cell phone contract for 12 months?
The point of "alternative" credit histories is that some people do pay cash for stuff. It isn't that they have no money or have defaulted on debts before; it's that they have no tradeline credit history (i.e. nothing reported to the credit bureaus) at all, and therefore no FICO. So you look for anything you can in the person's financial matters that you can document showing that the person pays regular obligations on time, like rent, utilities, insurance, the cell phone, child support, whatever. You are trying to eliminate first-time homebuyers (like brand-new college graduates) who have never been responsible for any of their own bills or housing expenses yet.
It happens that people who do not use credit sometimes tithe on a regular plan. It does seem deeply problematic to me to refuse to grant mortgage credit to someone who does not have or want to have a credit card or a car payment. The fact of the matter is that houses are too expensive for most people ever to pay cash, but frugal people can choose to pay cash for other purchases, even large ones like cars and durables.
I don't object to alternative qualification; it's doing it in 48 hours with some half-assed software that bugs me. Alternative credit histories have to be researched and analyzed very carefully.
I had to look up the meaning of the word "Ukases"--Nothing better than starting out my day learning a new word!!!!!
I don't like how almost the head of any Government Agency is referred to as czar these days like the Drug Czar or Education Czar and so on. I think instead of using the word czar we should instead use the phrase of "Top Banana".
It's kind of like that opening scene in The Godfather where the old Don who Corleone is about to whack walks through the church festival and stuffs a cash donation into the figure of Mary.
My mind still boggles - nope I don't mean to argue just to philosophize - it feels all wrong - you can buy cell phones on installment, houses by mortgaging but can you really buy God on installment ? But then those donations, charges for votive candles never made much sense to me either - or for the coconut offerings at Hindu temples ( at least they don't charge per bell ring ) - in contrast, the Blue Mosque didn't charge me a dime - even the modesty garb one needed to wear to go inside was free - and the donation desk OUTSIDE the mosque wasn't exactly barring one's exit.
I am pretty certain that that is the first time the phrase "theocratic absolutist ukases" and "pajamas" has ever appeared in the same paragraph much less the same paragraph of a financial blog.
"We don't need no steenkin' Mortgage Czar"
You get my vote - Do you a nice badge with the new job ?
Being 10 hours behind yet a full day ahead gives us here in Oz an unfair advantage when it comes to declaring First to these early morning posts ... but, well, FIRST!
Hmmm ... not enough of an advantage, it would seem!
AAAAAAAARRRGGGHHH! where is my 12 gauge?I didn' want to look in the mirror until 5 AM,so I was delighted to see a Tanta post.Now I need Valium,not coffee.Me,I'm going eat me some hashbrowns and liver,cast a few silver slugs and go hunting for these here undead innovators...if the silver bullets don't work I'll crucify the buggers on a cross of Gold.
Reagan wouldn't have called anyone a "czar", it would have had a negative connotation. Now people are so brain-dead they think it has a cool ring to it. The Czar of Stupid is running the WH.
Yeah, well, I'm not interested until we have so many czars that we need a Czar Czar, then I'll apply. Sure, we used to call that the "Chief Executive," but why would a country like the U.S. not model itself on pre-revolutionary Russian absolute monarchs?
OK so we don't have tax payer provided housing for the poor because it is commie.
We have a capitalistic system where the tax payer picks up the bill for the losses incurred when providing housing for the poor goes south.
It looks to me as if Congress has decided to appoint itself as Mortgage Czar. Up for what is expected to be a bipartisan vote is an amendment to the Internal Revenue Code that will eliminate the imposition of income tax on debt forgiven by a lender pursuant to a short sale or reworking of the loan. Who couldn't see this coming, huh?
But here's the part that really galls me: Apparently, the House version of this bill makes the change permanent. The tax code has always been used by Congress for social engineering (read: vote baiting) as much as for revenue building, and here's a dangerous and misguided example.
Can we rename the tip jar to tip czar? Just a suggestion.
Tanta,
... we need a Czar Czar ...
I thought you'd already had one of those. Wasn't her surname Gabor?
(ducks for cover)
where you headed, cowboy?
nowhere special
nowhere special. i always wanted to go there.
come on then.
I think a "Tsar" spelling goes better with Tanta.
It's not a mortgage program.
It's a PR/lobbying program to score points with bigshots and media.
Washington. Washington Post.
Too obvious.
Tanta:
I agree, being a Tsar is no fun if separation of church/state is at play.
Thus, simply become the Mortgage Pontiff.
there... I've solved all of your problems, and it isn't even 738am CST yet.
Back to topic...
what a wonderful innovative idea!
One thing about this innovative idea though... doesn't it sound a lot like old ideas?
or maybe we can call this a retro idea?
Back off topic:
your time stamp is off by 10 minutes or so.
I'm posting this while looking at the Official US Time (by the atomic clock)
I'm hitting send at exactly
7:40 and 00 seconds
NOW>
Futures Jump on more un-employed seeking benefits...
So, based on Washington DC area prices, Citi has decided to do about 400 mortgages of this type in that area.
And isn't $200 million a rounding error type of number for Citi?
I assumed that new money and new plans for mortgages would be aimed at helping people currently with ARM's that are resetting refinance into something that they can continue to pay.
If I am reading this correctly, this program is aimed at "helping" people with weak credit buy homes (that are overprice and declining in value). This would help some distressed sellers, but I don't see how it will do much for housing problems.
The nonprofit group will then sell the loans to State Farm and Fannie Mae.
Which sub-atomic part of State Farm will be buying these loans... State Farm Bank ?
No, no Tanta. If you are named Czar then you can operate in secret and do any thing you want. Why do you think that call it CZAR.
I think you would be perfect!
I am pretty certain that that is the first time the phrase "theocratic absolutist ukases" and "pajamas" has ever appeared in the same paragraph much less the same paragraph of a financial blog.
Could someone please fill me in on what has changed so much that now the credit crisis is being viewed as largely history? From what I can see we have :
1) slightly lower rates, but still higher interbank rates
2) still no pricing of many mark to model instruments
3) a few large but not disastrous hits to earnings from a couple of big players' writedowns
4) perhaps a wee bit of loosening back up in mortgage credit terms ("stated is back") although this is debatable
5) irrational exuberance supreme in the equity markets
6) a resurgence of commodity bubbles
etc etc
Now, my question is, what are the new assumptions that are being made about housing? (which if I am not mistaken, was the source of this mess in the first place.) As I can see it, whatever the price outlook was for homes when subprime hit, it has if anything gotten markedly worse in the subsequent months, and continues to deteriorate.
Given that there are a ton of resets out there, and given that the mortgage modification trend will do close to zero to mitigate that upcoming problem, and given that prices are sliding fast, making a larger share (than previously expected) of these likely to default, it would seem to me that the credit crisis is likely just in a lull, rather than over.
Anyone else think this would be a good topic for a CR post? Id really like to see some opinions from many of the more informed readers here.
Anyone have an idea when should I go short again ?
HRB is up, BKUNA is down, FED and DSL are up, CFC about the same HB are down and up (since I covered) and I still can not figure out where the market is going.
I think many old favorite shorts ran their course until clear losses and prjection for future losses will emarge _ i don;t see this as of yet although I know it must be coming.
It seems that the market no longer anticipate it trades lower only when losses are proven.
well, after a RIDICULOUS run, XHB is heading back down today. But seriously, given what has been happening in the housing market recently, and the prospects for rate cuts making ANY difference, can someone here make a reasonable argument why XHB was up about 20% over the course of the previous days?
Yal:
I suggest using a 5-day stochastic--shorting when it goes to 80 or above and covering when it goes to below 20 and turns up. This has "predicted" the HB stocks nicely.
from the article
To qualify for the program, a person must be in the country legally and have alternate credit lines -- such as rental payments, utility bills or a tithing record -- that a lender can use to evaluate creditworthiness.
How can a TITHING record be a credit line ? Tithe rents as a source of income was abolished in the UK way back, (200 years ago?) - and did it ever exist in the USA ? I thought tithing in the USA was when you GAVE money to your church - with no conditions attached - so how can it be a credit line ?
The logic for establishing credit worthiness - that if you have money to give away means you HAVE money - would be tenuous, to say the least.
-K
The tithing part of this screams PR move.
Alright Tanta, if you refuse to be named Mortgage Czar, then how about if we just name you Honorary Blogger Czar (Honorary because we don't want to impose on the REAL originator here) and you can STAY in your pajamas and tell us all what to do, as usual? But we have to address you as HBC, or at least think of you respectfully before we post a comment.
I thought tithing in the USA was when you GAVE money to your church - with no conditions attached - so how can it be a credit line ?
Perhaps there are enough religious institutions in the DC area that have clergy that might qualify. Looking in many downtown areas I see a lot of "storefront" churches. If I'm not mistaken, there was a minister(?) in that Jamaica Plains foreclosure posting on this blog a few months ago.
==================
re: sdtfs
Perhaps there are enough religious institutions in the DC area that have clergy that might qualify
Ahhhh.. so tithing is the PASTOR's ( not the church's ) income ! Didn't think of that! These one-man churches are so outside my experience ( I just think Catholic, CofE, WeeFree's and that's it.
Thanks much.
-K
if it's just going to involve a bunch of posturing with no ability to imprison dissidents,
It occurs to me you could just call them financial enemy combatants and stick them in Guantanamo, as far as I know there's not much legal oversight. Just a thought.
How can a TITHING record be a credit line ?
The idea is that the person agreed to pay installments, and then did so, on time. So you show that you entered into an agreement with your church to make a tithe of some amount each month, and you show cancelled checks or bank statements and receipts from the church that show such payments were in fact made for a year or more.
I don't know that I'd be thrilled about using it as an alternative to a tradeline, but why is that any whackier than giving someone with a FICO score a mortgage because they paid on a cell phone contract for 12 months?
The point of "alternative" credit histories is that some people do pay cash for stuff. It isn't that they have no money or have defaulted on debts before; it's that they have no tradeline credit history (i.e. nothing reported to the credit bureaus) at all, and therefore no FICO. So you look for anything you can in the person's financial matters that you can document showing that the person pays regular obligations on time, like rent, utilities, insurance, the cell phone, child support, whatever. You are trying to eliminate first-time homebuyers (like brand-new college graduates) who have never been responsible for any of their own bills or housing expenses yet.
It happens that people who do not use credit sometimes tithe on a regular plan. It does seem deeply problematic to me to refuse to grant mortgage credit to someone who does not have or want to have a credit card or a car payment. The fact of the matter is that houses are too expensive for most people ever to pay cash, but frugal people can choose to pay cash for other purchases, even large ones like cars and durables.
I don't object to alternative qualification; it's doing it in 48 hours with some half-assed software that bugs me. Alternative credit histories have to be researched and analyzed very carefully.
Thank You,
I had to look up the meaning of the word "Ukases"--Nothing better than starting out my day learning a new word!!!!!
I don't like how almost the head of any Government Agency is referred to as czar these days like the Drug Czar or Education Czar and so on. I think instead of using the word czar we should instead use the phrase of "Top Banana".
You get my vote - Do you a nice badge with the new job ?
No, although my sources indicate you get some sweet epaulets and a hat with a bad-ass feathered plume.
It's kind of like that opening scene in The Godfather where the old Don who Corleone is about to whack walks through the church festival and stuffs a cash donation into the figure of Mary.
Tanta - thanks for the explanation.
My mind still boggles - nope I don't mean to argue just to philosophize - it feels all wrong - you can buy cell phones on installment, houses by mortgaging but can you really buy God on installment ? But then those donations, charges for votive candles never made much sense to me either - or for the coconut offerings at Hindu temples ( at least they don't charge per bell ring ) - in contrast, the Blue Mosque didn't charge me a dime - even the modesty garb one needed to wear to go inside was free - and the donation desk OUTSIDE the mosque wasn't exactly barring one's exit.
-K
Tanta, why did you suddenly add 'homepage' to your tag? were people getting lost in the comments section?
No, although my sources indicate you get some sweet epaulets and a hat with a bad-ass feathered plume.
Thats not a Czar... thats a pimp
I am pretty certain that that is the first time the phrase "theocratic absolutist ukases" and "pajamas" has ever appeared in the same paragraph much less the same paragraph of a financial blog.
Now THAT's innovation!
I had friends in high school who would have loved to be Drug Czar just as long as you didn't tell them the point was to stop drug use.