Love the "confessional" search label! Are you sure you aren't channeling Tanta this morning CR?
I swear there's a drinking game somewhere in this mess. Everytime we read "more quickly than we could have ever anticipated" we drink. Souced by lunchtime.
Seriously, I am getting very tired of the deterioration quicker than expected line. It is a confession that their model is broken and they have no idea what guidance to give going forward yet they go right ahead and offer guidance anyway. IMO the biggest problem with the current rate of deterioration is that there is no way to tell how much additional negative feedback is generated. I find it likely that based on the sanguine response to date is sending a message to the next tier of yet to be troubled mortgages that there is little or no consequences to repudiation of debt.
--
Q (for Tanta and CR): Would these companies have made these loans had they been private partnerships that owned and derived their incomes from the loans (not in the resale business)?
I like the number of visitors on the site. I'll cover my shorts when it gets to 500+ thats when wall street
starts thinking we are on to something here at this site.
My dog could have told them, how anyone couldn't have seen this bubble forming and the lax lending standards that propelled it just amazes me especially after the stock bubble just a few short years before.
'Refiners will eventually have to pass on the higher cost of crude oil to consumers.'
"We think this will begin happening in the near future probably a matter of days and weeks, but definitely when the number of auto travelers increases in November for the Thanksgiving holiday,"
@ Robert Cote:
Agreed. The 'whoops, we we're surprised about how quickly things deteriorated' is getting old.
Since they keep getting surprised, how about they admit they have no clue how bad this is going to get. My head tells me they can't and won't admit where this is/could go as we'd likely have selloffs and huge loss of confidence by the middle class. if main street America ever gets wind of how ugly it is, their perception could shutter a few large banks, no?
To me it doesn't matter so much if a blind man could have anticipated this. Done is done. The bottom line is this is going to hurt and we all are going to take a hit, one way or another.
I'd say the odds we are going to have a good old fashioned, brutal, recession that lingers on and on just went up a bit.
Sure it is. Reminds me to verify that my wallet and money are in my pocket because as soon as someone says this, you know they are going to say that they could not see (imagine) the wreckage coming.
I am getting rather sick of hearing the phrase "We could never have anticipated" and it's variants, whether coming from Condi Rice or CEOs. Isn't there anyone in government or business who asks the question "What's the worst that can happen?" Of course there is, but they are promptly told to shut up and stop killing the buzz.
Those in power who continually lecture us plebes to accept personal responsibility are incapable of doing it themselves. Fire the bastards and ixnay on the golden parachutes.
Yes, conventional wisdom was that the wizened green visors at the insurers were not subject to the same crack-like incentives that pervaded the rest of the mortgage industry, and that they actually knew what they were doing. Anecdotes suggested they were either charging very high premiums for insuring sub-prime MBSes or avoiding them entirely.
The Economist ran an article about this back in July.
The market still seems to believe the thesis, more or less, in the case of MBIA. Time will tell.
From later in the conference call discussing the pattern of claims in California - key phrase "who would have thought?" answer: any reader of CR with a pulse! They went on to say that they are dusting off their records from the 90's in CA to help adjust their models!
"But beginning in '06 there with the California specifically, that book went from boom to bust and quite rapidly. So it is coming out of the blocks a lot higher, steeper and is akin to Michigan, maybe a tad worse if you compare delinquency curves and who would have thought between early '05 and early '06, California would have gone from virtually no claims to being on a par with Michigan."
I have made this comment approximately 100 times on this blog since 2005, but let me say it again: it's not a real RE bust until an MI goes down.
I'll still be surprised if it's MGIC this time. You think Culver is sounding a bit lame? I can't wait to find out how bad it is at Radian.
And at least we're not talking about the weather any more. I agree that "we couldn't have seen this coming" is tedious, but boy howdy, that "it's too hot/cold/dry/wet/sunny/overcast to shop for houses" crap was sending me over the edge . . .
The problem is that the perma Bears
have been wrong for so long that
it is hard to pay attention to them.
I do believe at some point we will have a bad recession;However longterm it will prove as a buying opportunity. S&P at 1250 will be
tasting good, at 1100 downright delicious.
"No one could have anticipated" has become the watch words for the 0-0s for all the things so many of us anticipated, told people was going to happen, and were ignored for.
That's why most of us voted for Al GOre, but the Supreme Court told us we were wrong.
"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are "known knowns"; there are things we know we know. We also know there are "known unknowns"; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also "unknown unknowns" the ones we don't know we don't know.
I do declare this market cannot stop going up or at least staying up. What will slay this market? Nothing if gas prices don't rise suddenly and take 10% out of JQPublic's spending money. The housing bust sure hasn't done it...yet...if ever.
Crude oil futures surged to a new intraday record of $89 on Wednesday after news reports that the Turkish parliament authorized cross-border military offensive into northern Iraq to hunt down Kurdish rebels. "While this result was widely expected, it appears the oil market will use any bullish news to continue to rally," noted analysts at Action Economics. After its spike to a new high, crude again quickly pared gains and was last up 75 cents at $88.36.
"To me it doesn't matter so much if a blind man could have anticipated this. Done is done. The bottom line is this is going to hurt and we all are going to take a hit, one way or another."
Speak for yourself, I have done extremely well having foreseen this fiasco coming in mid 2004.
that was from the late, lamented Rummy, in happier days, when he was feeling his oats. He now evidently has found haven at the Hoover Institution among the discarded Neocons and other assorted reactionaries. And even there he is reported unwelcome. Condi Rice had to tell her people to treat him better, or she would stamp her foot when she got back.
From Der Leader today. more doublespeak, ""The fundamental question is what do we do to help homeowners. I don't think we ought to be providing bailouts for lenders but I do think we ought to put policies in place that help people stay in their homes."
Now please explain to me how 'keeping people in their homes' (thus I assume avoiding foreclosure) does not bail out lenders. I mean if you can get a person to keep paying a mortgage they can't afford, on a depreciating asset, aren't you bailing out the lender on that mortgage?
Tanta said: "I have made this comment approximately 100 times on this blog since 2005, but let me say it again: it's not a real RE bust until an MI goes down."
--
"Now please explain to me how 'keeping people in their homes' (thus I assume avoiding foreclosure) does not bail out lenders."
You got to come to terms with the ugly truth about the American econo-political system. A system of... Aided and abetted by politically impotent American People. There is no way out of this quandary other than the collapse of the system itself. Yes, I do have an explanation and I dont have any solution. Only a stupid person would waste his, or her, time on a solution. How do you propose to get rid of the Crooks? Via elections? LOL.
--
"S&P at 1250 will be tasting good, at 1100 downright delicious."
And it would be a one-way ticket to the poor house. Once SPX cracks 1250 it wouldn't stop until below 750, at the very minimum, and most likely to 250. That only applies if the American Scam Markets are not shut down for good! Yes, this did happen in jolly old England (for some 4 decades, after 1720s bubble burst, the stock market was shut down for all practical purposes). This time it would be shut down for good and private enterprises will be really private. Did Goldchain Silverknife needed to go public to raise capital?! These Crooks only went public for one reason and one reason only to scam the public, as they did in 1928 as a private company via trusts.
GMAC Financial Services said on Wednesday it would cut about 3,000 jobs, or 25 percent of the work force at its Residential Capital LLC mortgage operation.
It blamed the cuts on "sharp downturns in the U.S. residential real estate markets and the global dislocation of the mortgage finance and credit markets."
ResCap employs about 12,000 people after cutting 2,000 jobs earlier this year.
IMO and based on the limited information released MGIC is the best of the public MI's (excludes Genworth). Radian and TGIC appear to have a poorer book of business and PMI's reserves appear to be less conservative.
Time to get off your lazy,intellectual ass and do some productive work. Start a Blog with
charts and data. I really think you can do it, but first read the first sentence.
Time to get off your lazy,intellectual ass and do some productive work.
I don't work either and I have admit I kinda like it that way and besides I don't have to. Jas is correct that the sheep are being led to the slaughter The debt slaves don't see it because they are to busy trying to pay the debt. The greedy don't see it because they are blinded by their own greed. Just like people who are involved in a car wreck no one thinks it will happen to them.
Jas,
why are you afraid to post with your real name? Is it because you know
you are not as good as you say?
If you want a role model, I suggest
CR. even if you are half as good
you should get some respect. As for
me, I make it a point to listen to those smarter than me, like CR and others with proven track record.
Well, the "recession around the corner" has been anticipated by 99% on this blog for years now, together with a stock market bear and meaningful house price crashes like ~50% or so.
Well, those people have been wrong 100% all the time. That's still much worse than any of our leaders and what they have been forecasting.
I am seeing a lot of industry wide reactions. For example, RDN and PMI went down on the MTG warning. I have some October Redwood (RWT) puts that I wanted to sell two weeks ago, but I could not stomach a 0.3/1.0 bid ask. Now RWT (reit handling Jumbo loans) is crashing in sympathy to Thornburg (TMA) and the puts are valued at something like $6 per share (at lot better than $0.30 offered two weeks ago. At least sometimes we can get lucky, rather than selling just before a big move in the right direction.
What about all of this captive reinsurance? Where does that rabbit hole lead to? I think back on to the balance sheet of US banks and financial service compabies (e.g. AIG).
How come nobody is talking about this? Could this be the next SIV story?
How many top execs are allowed to say this same thing, "Frankly, the loss side has hit us much harder and more quickly than we could have ever anticipated. "
Would it not be fair to categorize Chief Executive Curt Culver, MGIC, as a plagiarist?
My dog can say she didn't anticipate the surprise bone I brought home. But this clown has just asked his Bd of Dir's to fire his ass for incompetence.
I think you are being a little harsh. Most of the MI's seemed to expect trouble and avoided a lot of the worst mortgages. IMO they got caught because the downturn was much worst than most real estate corrections. Also more good loans (they insured) are going bad and loan severity has gotten ugly when a ton of bad loans foreclosed and reduced demand and increased supply of houses.
IMO both MGIC and Radian have also been reasonably realistic and honest on Conference calls.
Vicjim, the responsibility of management is to lead. Leaders must understand the future of their industry. Period. End of Story.
You're an apologist for those who failed to respect what has been said here and in many blogs. This is not new news. It's old news.
Worse, and a reason to fire him on the spot is his failure to project the massive loss his company is about to take over the next 6 months to 1 year, or to comment on the factors which will cause his company to lose most of its equity capital.
If this guy were a line manager, who'd give a hoot. But this is the big bucks "leader". He's a joke.
Every one of us have the capacity to refuse to explore risk. He didn't. Now he's stuck a knife in his shareholders guts and he's saying he didn't know what would happen.
To iterate, he's failing to speak to the future. Therefore his Bd of Dir's should fire the guy. Moreover, if they don't, I hope the major shareholders will talk to counsel about how to sue the insurer of this insurance company. I think there's a breach of something...but I don't do that for a living as I don't like to breathe and eat the slime just for some big bucks; but there are plenty of lawyerly sharks who should be well positioned to go for the Board's throat.
Ah another one that I shorted too early... I think history is about to be made in CA and FL.
I like the snear at responsibility here:
After all they are only human, no matter what their CEO compensation levels might suggest.
Love the "confessional" search label! Are you sure you aren't channeling Tanta this morning CR?
I swear there's a drinking game somewhere in this mess. Everytime we read "more quickly than we could have ever anticipated" we drink. Souced by lunchtime.
Seriously, I am getting very tired of the deterioration quicker than expected line. It is a confession that their model is broken and they have no idea what guidance to give going forward yet they go right ahead and offer guidance anyway. IMO the biggest problem with the current rate of deterioration is that there is no way to tell how much additional negative feedback is generated. I find it likely that based on the sanguine response to date is sending a message to the next tier of yet to be troubled mortgages that there is little or no consequences to repudiation of debt.
--
Q (for Tanta and CR): Would these companies have made these loans had they been private partnerships that owned and derived their incomes from the loans (not in the resale business)?
Thanks.
Jas
I like the number of visitors on the site. I'll cover my shorts when it gets to 500+ thats when wall street
starts thinking we are on to something here at this site.
Bush urges Congress to speed work on annual spending bills
"it was not anticipated by many."
My dog could have told them, how anyone couldn't have seen this bubble forming and the lax lending standards that propelled it just amazes me especially after the stock bubble just a few short years before.
Retail motor fuel prices poised to catch up with oil
Retail fuel prices are ready to catch up with oil - MarketWatch
'Refiners will eventually have to pass on the higher cost of crude oil to consumers.'
"We think this will begin happening in the near future probably a matter of days and weeks, but definitely when the number of auto travelers increases in November for the Thanksgiving holiday,"
@ Robert Cote:
Agreed. The 'whoops, we we're surprised about how quickly things deteriorated' is getting old.
Since they keep getting surprised, how about they admit they have no clue how bad this is going to get. My head tells me they can't and won't admit where this is/could go as we'd likely have selloffs and huge loss of confidence by the middle class. if main street America ever gets wind of how ugly it is, their perception could shutter a few large banks, no?
To me it doesn't matter so much if a blind man could have anticipated this. Done is done. The bottom line is this is going to hurt and we all are going to take a hit, one way or another.
I'd say the odds we are going to have a good old fashioned, brutal, recession that lingers on and on just went up a bit.
The favorite excuse of the new milleneum, "No one could have imagined...."
The reason why CEOs should earn more is because they can convince you that they knew nothing.
Retail motor fuel prices poised to catch up with oil
Crude oil has gone parabolic at least for the short term, this one will lead to tears for those who stay in that market to long.
convince us
They are insurers. Isn't it their profession to model risk correctly?
MBI did not react to MTG news. How funny; I am sure the MTG news is company specific.
Of course there is only one logical thing to do.
Actually, my favorite quote is always:
It is different this time.
Sure it is. Reminds me to verify that my wallet and money are in my pocket because as soon as someone says this, you know they are going to say that they could not see (imagine) the wreckage coming.
Black Swan at work here -
I am getting rather sick of hearing the phrase "We could never have anticipated" and it's variants, whether coming from Condi Rice or CEOs. Isn't there anyone in government or business who asks the question "What's the worst that can happen?" Of course there is, but they are promptly told to shut up and stop killing the buzz.
Those in power who continually lecture us plebes to accept personal responsibility are incapable of doing it themselves. Fire the bastards and ixnay on the golden parachutes.
Bush says he recognizes 'softness' in the housing market.
AlBNYC:
Yes, conventional wisdom was that the wizened green visors at the insurers were not subject to the same crack-like incentives that pervaded the rest of the mortgage industry, and that they actually knew what they were doing. Anecdotes suggested they were either charging very high premiums for insuring sub-prime MBSes or avoiding them entirely.
The Economist ran an article about this back in July.
The market still seems to believe the thesis, more or less, in the case of MBIA. Time will tell.
Confessional:
Thornburg book value sliced in half in 3Q.....
Expired
From later in the conference call discussing the pattern of claims in California - key phrase "who would have thought?" answer: any reader of CR with a pulse! They went on to say that they are dusting off their records from the 90's in CA to help adjust their models!
"But beginning in '06 there with the California specifically, that book went from boom to bust and quite rapidly. So it is coming out of the blocks a lot higher, steeper and is akin to Michigan, maybe a tad worse if you compare delinquency curves and who would have thought between early '05 and early '06, California would have gone from virtually no claims to being on a par with Michigan."
The funny thing is that people like Faber, Schiff, Daily Reckoning, and many on here DID see this coming.
GMAC Financial to cut about 3,000 ResCap jobs
I have made this comment approximately 100 times on this blog since 2005, but let me say it again: it's not a real RE bust until an MI goes down.
I'll still be surprised if it's MGIC this time. You think Culver is sounding a bit lame? I can't wait to find out how bad it is at Radian.
And at least we're not talking about the weather any more. I agree that "we couldn't have seen this coming" is tedious, but boy howdy, that "it's too hot/cold/dry/wet/sunny/overcast to shop for houses" crap was sending me over the edge . . .
It has been unusually cool and wet so far this October in SOCal
OT-
Can anyone here explain the difference in px's of the eminy crude and nymex crude
INO.com Current Futures Trading Price Board - Intraday Prices, Charts, and Quotes for Futures and Commodities Markets
found at this site...
$1 dollar difference
Black Swan at work here -
crispy&cole
I rather think it's a large bevy of 'em, and they're all conspiring together...
The problem is that the perma Bears
have been wrong for so long that
it is hard to pay attention to them.
I do believe at some point we will have a bad recession;However longterm it will prove as a buying opportunity. S&P at 1250 will be
tasting good, at 1100 downright delicious.
"No one could have anticipated" has become the watch words for the 0-0s for all the things so many of us anticipated, told people was going to happen, and were ignored for.
That's why most of us voted for Al GOre, but the Supreme Court told us we were wrong.
Early in the MTG call:
"Who could have imagined"
Later in the call, in response to a caller asking if a recession was included in their 'stress test':
"If you want to forecast the end of the world, go ahead, but we're not."
From the 1q08 call (likely):
"Who could have imagined we would have a recession?"
Later in the call, in response to a caller asking if a recession was included in their 'stress test':
"If you want to forecast the end of the world, go ahead, but we're not."
Really?
Since when is a recession the end of the world? I thought that was part of the normal business cycle, therefore, NOT a black swan event!
"Who could have imagined"
who said that, Condi Rice?
$89
Who said this? On the "unknown":
"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are "known knowns"; there are things we know we know. We also know there are "known unknowns"; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also "unknown unknowns" the ones we don't know we don't know.
HEADLINE:
"Strong earnings lift stocks."
I do declare this market cannot stop going up or at least staying up. What will slay this market? Nothing if gas prices don't rise suddenly and take 10% out of JQPublic's spending money. The housing bust sure hasn't done it...yet...if ever.
Crude oil futures surged to a new intraday record of $89 on Wednesday after news reports that the Turkish parliament authorized cross-border military offensive into northern Iraq to hunt down Kurdish rebels. "While this result was widely expected, it appears the oil market will use any bullish news to continue to rally," noted analysts at Action Economics. After its spike to a new high, crude again quickly pared gains and was last up 75 cents at $88.36.
Leverage or die.
"Frankly, the loss side has hit us much harder and more quickly than we could have ever anticipated."
Another version of:
No one could have seen this coming.
--
OT, but I am sure that many are interested in the Scam Market...
Scam Market Bullies At a Record
October 17, 2007
Bulls above 60% (62%) and bears below 20% (19.3%) has triggered many a bear markets. We will see how this one turns out.
Date Bulls Bears
17-Oct\t62\t19.3
10-Oct\t60.2\t21.5
3-Oct\t56.5\t25
26-Sep\t55.6\t25.6
19-Sep\t53.9\t27
12-Sep\t48.3\t31
5-Sep\t42.9\t37.4
29-Aug\t41.7\t37.4
22-Aug\t40.6\t37.4
15-Aug\t43.8\t32.6
Option Trading Indicators: Investor's Intelligence - SchaeffersResearch.com
Jas
"To me it doesn't matter so much if a blind man could have anticipated this. Done is done. The bottom line is this is going to hurt and we all are going to take a hit, one way or another."
Speak for yourself, I have done extremely well having foreseen this fiasco coming in mid 2004.
Crispycole:
that was from the late, lamented Rummy, in happier days, when he was feeling his oats. He now evidently has found haven at the Hoover Institution among the discarded Neocons and other assorted reactionaries. And even there he is reported unwelcome. Condi Rice had to tell her people to treat him better, or she would stamp her foot when she got back.
From Der Leader today. more doublespeak, ""The fundamental question is what do we do to help homeowners. I don't think we ought to be providing bailouts for lenders but I do think we ought to put policies in place that help people stay in their homes."
Bush says no bailouts for lenders
| Reuters
Now please explain to me how 'keeping people in their homes' (thus I assume avoiding foreclosure) does not bail out lenders. I mean if you can get a person to keep paying a mortgage they can't afford, on a depreciating asset, aren't you bailing out the lender on that mortgage?
Tanta said: "I have made this comment approximately 100 times on this blog since 2005, but let me say it again: it's not a real RE bust until an MI goes down."
Interesting. Thanks, I'll remember that.
S.
"I have made this comment approximately 100 times on this blog since 2005, but let me say it again: it's not a real RE bust until an MI goes down.
I'll still be surprised if it's MGIC this time. You think Culver is sounding a bit lame? I can't wait to find out how bad it is at Radian."
Q2 '08
"Now please explain to me how 'keeping people in their homes' (thus I assume avoiding foreclosure) does not bail out lenders."
A: Loan Mods.
Stocks going negative - quite the outside reversal today. Perhaps the economy does matter afterall? Who would have guessed...
Hey CR just a FYI. The C.A.R. forecast which was released last week now has the breakdown of the whole forecast given:
tp://www.car.org/library/media/papers/pdf/10-10-07EXPOForecastLAY.pdf
I thought you might want to know.
--
"Now please explain to me how 'keeping people in their homes' (thus I assume avoiding foreclosure) does not bail out lenders."
You got to come to terms with the ugly truth about the American econo-political system. A system of... Aided and abetted by politically impotent American People. There is no way out of this quandary other than the collapse of the system itself. Yes, I do have an explanation and I dont have any solution. Only a stupid person would waste his, or her, time on a solution. How do you propose to get rid of the Crooks? Via elections? LOL.
Jas
--
"S&P at 1250 will be tasting good, at 1100 downright delicious."
And it would be a one-way ticket to the poor house. Once SPX cracks 1250 it wouldn't stop until below 750, at the very minimum, and most likely to 250. That only applies if the American Scam Markets are not shut down for good! Yes, this did happen in jolly old England (for some 4 decades, after 1720s bubble burst, the stock market was shut down for all practical purposes). This time it would be shut down for good and private enterprises will be really private. Did Goldchain Silverknife needed to go public to raise capital?! These Crooks only went public for one reason and one reason only to scam the public, as they did in 1928 as a private company via trusts.
A permabear,
Jas
PS: Bulls are history ignoramuses.
My first bet for bankruptcy is FNF.
Hey, I pay lots of money for this type of research. Get your own link.
GMAC Financial Services said on Wednesday it would cut about 3,000 jobs, or 25 percent of the work force at its Residential Capital LLC mortgage operation.
It blamed the cuts on "sharp downturns in the U.S. residential real estate markets and the global dislocation of the mortgage finance and credit markets."
ResCap employs about 12,000 people after cutting 2,000 jobs earlier this year.
Business finance news - currency market news - online UK currency markets - financial news - Interactive Investor
IMO and based on the limited information released MGIC is the best of the public MI's (excludes Genworth). Radian and TGIC appear to have a poorer book of business and PMI's reserves appear to be less conservative.
JAS,
Time to get off your lazy,intellectual ass and do some productive work. Start a Blog with
charts and data. I really think you can do it, but first read the first sentence.
Buy the Dip Now?
Now?
help...
Now?
Time to get off your lazy,intellectual ass and do some productive work.
I don't work either and I have admit I kinda like it that way and besides I don't have to. Jas is correct that the sheep are being led to the slaughter The debt slaves don't see it because they are to busy trying to pay the debt. The greedy don't see it because they are blinded by their own greed. Just like people who are involved in a car wreck no one thinks it will happen to them.
Turkey is about to attack north of Irak, Q.WBush is talking about a WWIII with Iran on bloomberg but WHAT'S Goin on here !!???
is the US economy in free fall ?
Jas,
why are you afraid to post with your real name? Is it because you know
you are not as good as you say?
If you want a role model, I suggest
CR. even if you are half as good
you should get some respect. As for
me, I make it a point to listen to those smarter than me, like CR and others with proven track record.
"it was not anticipated by many."
Well, the "recession around the corner" has been anticipated by 99% on this blog for years now, together with a stock market bear and meaningful house price crashes like ~50% or so.
Well, those people have been wrong 100% all the time. That's still much worse than any of our leaders and what they have been forecasting.
I mean who needs a dose of reality most?
O-Joe
DH
I'm not Jas and I have no idea how good he is but I belive he is correct hope you are prepared.
DON'T FEED THE TROLL.
from a reformed troll feeder
I am seeing a lot of industry wide reactions. For example, RDN and PMI went down on the MTG warning. I have some October Redwood (RWT) puts that I wanted to sell two weeks ago, but I could not stomach a 0.3/1.0 bid ask. Now RWT (reit handling Jumbo loans) is crashing in sympathy to Thornburg (TMA) and the puts are valued at something like $6 per share (at lot better than $0.30 offered two weeks ago. At least sometimes we can get lucky, rather than selling just before a big move in the right direction.
"Black Swan at work here -
crispy&cole
I rather think it's a large bevy of 'em, and they're all conspiring together...
dotcommunist"
C-Span book interview with Taleb here:
Book TV | Top Nonfiction Authors and Books
Thanks photodog
What about all of this captive reinsurance? Where does that rabbit hole lead to? I think back on to the balance sheet of US banks and financial service compabies (e.g. AIG).
How come nobody is talking about this? Could this be the next SIV story?
How many top execs are allowed to say this same thing, "Frankly, the loss side has hit us much harder and more quickly than we could have ever anticipated. "
Would it not be fair to categorize Chief Executive Curt Culver, MGIC, as a plagiarist?
My dog can say she didn't anticipate the surprise bone I brought home. But this clown has just asked his Bd of Dir's to fire his ass for incompetence.
Or did I miss something here?
I think you are being a little harsh. Most of the MI's seemed to expect trouble and avoided a lot of the worst mortgages. IMO they got caught because the downturn was much worst than most real estate corrections. Also more good loans (they insured) are going bad and loan severity has gotten ugly when a ton of bad loans foreclosed and reduced demand and increased supply of houses.
IMO both MGIC and Radian have also been reasonably realistic and honest on Conference calls.
Vicjim, the responsibility of management is to lead. Leaders must understand the future of their industry. Period. End of Story.
You're an apologist for those who failed to respect what has been said here and in many blogs. This is not new news. It's old news.
Worse, and a reason to fire him on the spot is his failure to project the massive loss his company is about to take over the next 6 months to 1 year, or to comment on the factors which will cause his company to lose most of its equity capital.
If this guy were a line manager, who'd give a hoot. But this is the big bucks "leader". He's a joke.
Every one of us have the capacity to refuse to explore risk. He didn't. Now he's stuck a knife in his shareholders guts and he's saying he didn't know what would happen.
To iterate, he's failing to speak to the future. Therefore his Bd of Dir's should fire the guy. Moreover, if they don't, I hope the major shareholders will talk to counsel about how to sue the insurer of this insurance company. I think there's a breach of something...but I don't do that for a living as I don't like to breathe and eat the slime just for some big bucks; but there are plenty of lawyerly sharks who should be well positioned to go for the Board's throat.