BLS inflation reporting is what it is. We can take it at face value, or try to figure out what is really going on.
As noted above, I have a problem with the entire "Inflation Ratchet." If its not inflation when energy prices are rising, how can it be proof that inflation pressures are easing when energy comes down? That's inconsistent.
Look no further than today's CPI for an example: Apparel was called down 0.7% in CPI, along with the following explanatory BLS note: "Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices rose 1.3%, reflecting the continued introduction of fall-winter wear."
Look at Hotels also, down 0.5%. BLS explanation? Prior to seasonal adjustment, the index for lodging away from home increased 0.5 percent.
All Items less food and energy was up but 0.1% on a monthly seasonally adjusted basis. Year-over-year comparisons, however don't get "adjusted. All Items (ex food and energy) were up 2.6% from October 2005. That's EX food and energy.
So you can look at the hedonically altered, seasonally adjusted, inflation ex inflation headline spin -- or you can look at reality.
If identifying the data before it gets tortured is "zealotry," then so be it. . .
CR - interesting series. Thanks. On dloading and graphing to smooth things out a bit (hard to do anything else as the reported historical data is monthly % changes not the index) one might still leap to the conclusion that while inflation as measured by the median CPI is weakening it still looks to be considerably above the
Inflation was at 8% just before they quit reporting the M-3. Several groups have reconstructed the statistic and have come up with just over 10% inflation for this year.
thread from big picture:
BLS inflation reporting is what it is. We can take it at face value, or try to figure out what is really going on.
As noted above, I have a problem with the entire "Inflation Ratchet." If its not inflation when energy prices are rising, how can it be proof that inflation pressures are easing when energy comes down? That's inconsistent.
Look no further than today's CPI for an example: Apparel was called down 0.7% in CPI, along with the following explanatory BLS note: "Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices rose 1.3%, reflecting the continued introduction of fall-winter wear."
Look at Hotels also, down 0.5%. BLS explanation? Prior to seasonal adjustment, the index for lodging away from home increased 0.5 percent.
All Items less food and energy was up but 0.1% on a monthly seasonally adjusted basis. Year-over-year comparisons, however don't get "adjusted. All Items (ex food and energy) were up 2.6% from October 2005. That's EX food and energy.
So you can look at the hedonically altered, seasonally adjusted, inflation ex inflation headline spin -- or you can look at reality.
If identifying the data before it gets tortured is "zealotry," then so be it. . .
CR - interesting series. Thanks. On dloading and graphing to smooth things out a bit (hard to do anything else as the reported historical data is monthly % changes not the index) one might still leap to the conclusion that while inflation as measured by the median CPI is weakening it still looks to be considerably above the
Inflation was at 8% just before they quit reporting the M-3. Several groups have reconstructed the statistic and have come up with just over 10% inflation for this year.