It is also interesting to see that the spread between ARMS and 30 yr fixed is minimal. This should be the death call for speculators as it is unlikely that ARMs rates will drop without a recession. Either way trouble is ahead for speculators and the housing market. With 2 more rate increases ahead, the 2-yr bond rates (which ARMS are based on) will be going up and the only option for the marginal buyer will be fixed or neg. am loans. With 80% of mortgages being non-fixed in 2005, I would like someone to explain to me how this will not end badly (for some) in 2006 or 2007. Even if there is a recession I dont see the fed dropping the fed funds rate to the 1% rate again. As far as I can tell something will have to give either the fed is right or the bond market. We cant have a flat yield for long, thus either the bond market pops or we have a recession and the fed lowers. Either way it is not good for housing. I would like to hear one plausible scenario for getting out of this without a recession or with rates staying low (besides foreign investors continuing to fund out spending). Even the inflation scenario means bonds increase
I know it is coincidence that the % drop in the sales volume in NYC is similar to the % of speculators but
bbb, excellent points! I almost plotted the 30 year vs. the 1 year ARM (here is a graph showing the decreasing spread, from a post on AB a few months ago).
I definitely believe the end of speculation is the key.
Since mortgages are cheaper that means fewer people are buying them. But that in itself is not conlusive. For example you cant conclude that the default reate is expected to be higher just because the spread to treasuries is higher.
Skoobz, I use the 10 year because its longer than the normal mortgage duration. Most mortgages are paid off before 10 years - usually by selling or recently by refi'ing. I used to use a blend of the 5 year and 10 year - and that worked well as a guide to mortgage rates.
Interestingly, the spread used to be much larger between the 10 year and the 30 Fixed. Typically the spread was over 200 bps (compared to 175 bps right now). As in example, in Jan '99 the Ten Year yield was 4.75% and the 30 Fixed was 6.9%; a spread of 2.15%.
When the spread started dropping a few years ago, many people thought it was because of 1) advances in the MBS market and 2) increased competition in the mortgage market. Those advances haven't disappeared and neither has the competition - at least not yet.
There is no thirty year duration bond any more. The longest duration of any treasury bond in circulation is 27 years or so from what I read. Now that treasury will start issuing 30-year bond once again we will have that number.
Mortgages are different from 10-year treasuries, because of the prepayment option. As long-term rates fall relative to short-term rates, the implied expectation of lower rates raises the value of the prepayment option, increasing the spread between mortgages and treasuries.
Mortgage professionals look at the "option-adjusted spread." You should (a) learn what the term means and (b) report on the behavior of this spread.
Finally, if you are interested in investor opinion about the risk of mortgage default, none of these spreads is a useful indicator, because most securities are either guaranteed by Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae or are otherwise "credit enhanced." Investors are well insulated from default risk.
A better indicator of investors views of default risk would be the stock prices of the private mortgage insurance companies.
You are right about using OAS (option adjusted spreads). But they too tell a similar story. The widening in that spread is about the same magnitude that CR has presented in his chart. So, the analysis is not off the mark.
Once we have adjusted for the option, the spread does to some extent reflect default risk. Otherwise, what do you think the spread reflects? Even if mortgages are guranteed, a rise in the percieved riskiness of the guarantor will be reflected in the spread. BTW, private issue MBS have a huge amount of exposure to subprime mortgages and credit enhancement ultimately depends on the credit enhancer.
Stock prices of private mortgage insurers is poor proxy. In recent times, mortgage insurance has become passe as people have bypassed mortgage insurance by taking up piggy-back loans.
Check corporate spreads. The corporate curve is still positively sloped, just like mortgages. No Agency guarantee for corporates. If there has been a shift in relative spreads between corporates and mortgage paper, then we may learn something about the risk and other premia between spread markets.
One big reason why spreds are wider is because Fannie and Freddie are not growing their mortgage portfolios. The effect of default risk having increased cannot be inferred just by looking at the spread. So its meaning less to say that spreads are widening because investors are shunning mortgages. Its just bond math, higher yields means lower prices .... So if you say yields are higher because prices are lower you havent said anything.
Spreads have increased no matter how you slice and dice it. If you look at just private issue by rating and then look as OAS, even then spreads have increased. Your facile explanation just does not cut it.
BTW, Fannie and Freddie' shares in overall mortgage-backed securities has been declining for more than two years. There is nothing new in that. Nor is there any meaningful recent accelration in that trend.
Calculated Risk, where do you predict the Fed Funds Rate will land in Q1 06 taking in the new information such as Dec Nonfarm Payroll & Nov revisal as well as the FEDs meeting minutes?
Matt, Dr. Altig provides charts every week (usually on Mondays) of what investors expect over the next couple of Fed meetings. See: Fed Fund Probabilities.
I continue to expect 25 bps increases at the next two meetings (Jan 31 and Mar 28 ), so I'm expecting 4.75% at the end of Q1. Then I expect the Fed to pause ... with the next move down later in the year. Some obervers are expecting a pause after 4.5% - others not until 5% - but we are probably pretty close.
I didnt say that spreads are governed by fannie/freddie -- i just said they are not buying -- and that was one big reason spreads widened. There are many factors that go into pricing of mortgages. But to say that spreads have widened because of increased default risk is wrong because spreads could have widened for many reasons. By the way -- corporates are not as sensitive to volatility so comparing corporates to mortgages doesnt cut it either.
Could you please list the reasons why OAS can widen? Please be specific. Remember that we are are considering securities of like maturity--so no interest rate or reinvestment risk.
What volatility are you talking about? As far as I know, there is no vol measure (outside of the commodity markets) that has pumped up. In any case, vol pumping up is reflected in the embedded in the price of the option. So, OAS takes care of that.
Isn't growing spread related with foreign investors focused on 10-y bonds rather than longer-term securities? What would be spread eliminating differences due to foreign investors? Is it relevant to the question?
Tea, the price of a mortgage is roughly = the price of the obligation - price of the prepay option. The price of the option depends on the strike price (level of rates) and volatility (of rates). The price of the obligation (and the option) also depends on the probability of default -- but most importantly it depends on how much demand there is for this type of asset from investors. Demand is not necessarily a reflection of probability of default implied by the security. For example many investors (such as banks) borrow short and buy long dated high yielding securites such as mortgages (the so called carry trade). But this is less profitable in a flat yield curve environment such as what we have now -- so they do less of it. Spreads also depend on level of rates.
So to conclude that default probabilities have increased you would have to show that everything else stayed constant -- and thats a bit tough. I think that spreads have widened because the curve is flatter, there is less demand from the GSE (fannie/freddie ...) rates are somewhat higher.
What would be interesting is to see how the difference between prime and subprime mortgages has fared.
You dont know what you are talking about, frankly. First of all, I used OAS (option adjusted spreads). So, the prepay option issue is not relevant. Second, when you are talking about the spread between two securities that have like maturity (or approximately so)--that is the 10-year Treasury and 30-year fixed rate mortage (based on duration)--then the yield curve is irrelevant. The spread in this case is as close as you will get to a pur measure of default risk. Differences in demand will reflect different default risk appetites, that is all. It is not that complicated at all.
The carry trade issue is irrelevant because it applies as much to long T bonds as it does to fixed rate mortgages. Insoafr as the inverting yield curve and the lack of profits from carry trade increase the spread, it still is a measure of default risk and reflects the perception in the markets of the rising risk of recession.
There are some highly technical issues relating to the shapr of the yield curve that does make the straight spread somewhat misleading. In those cases you need to use something called the Z-spread. For practical purposes, the straight spread between two securities of equal maturity is pretty close to a measure of default risk.
Thanks for this great post. You've got some really good info in your blog. If you get a chance, you can check out my blog on {loans new} at Sorry. Page not found..
How should OAS spread duration behave if (everything else kept equal) the default rate (CDR) is increased - for example from 4CDR to 5CDR? What would be the logical explanation of such behaviour? We can logically justify the increase in OAS if default rate increases, but what about sensitivity of price of OAS changes if default rate increases?
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It is also interesting to see that the spread between ARMS and 30 yr fixed is minimal. This should be the death call for speculators as it is unlikely that ARMs rates will drop without a recession. Either way trouble is ahead for speculators and the housing market. With 2 more rate increases ahead, the 2-yr bond rates (which ARMS are based on) will be going up and the only option for the marginal buyer will be fixed or neg. am loans. With 80% of mortgages being non-fixed in 2005, I would like someone to explain to me how this will not end badly (for some) in 2006 or 2007. Even if there is a recession I dont see the fed dropping the fed funds rate to the 1% rate again. As far as I can tell something will have to give either the fed is right or the bond market. We cant have a flat yield for long, thus either the bond market pops or we have a recession and the fed lowers. Either way it is not good for housing. I would like to hear one plausible scenario for getting out of this without a recession or with rates staying low (besides foreign investors continuing to fund out spending). Even the inflation scenario means bonds increase
I know it is coincidence that the % drop in the sales volume in NYC is similar to the % of speculators but
bbb, excellent points! I almost plotted the 30 year vs. the 1 year ARM (here is a graph showing the decreasing spread, from a post on AB a few months ago).
I definitely believe the end of speculation is the key.
Best Wishes.
Since mortgages are cheaper that means fewer people are buying them. But that in itself is not conlusive. For example you cant conclude that the default reate is expected to be higher just because the spread to treasuries is higher.
CR, is the spread between the 30 year bond (not issued but still traded) and a 30 year mortgage a more relevant comparison?
Skoobz, I use the 10 year because its longer than the normal mortgage duration. Most mortgages are paid off before 10 years - usually by selling or recently by refi'ing. I used to use a blend of the 5 year and 10 year - and that worked well as a guide to mortgage rates.
Interestingly, the spread used to be much larger between the 10 year and the 30 Fixed. Typically the spread was over 200 bps (compared to 175 bps right now). As in example, in Jan '99 the Ten Year yield was 4.75% and the 30 Fixed was 6.9%; a spread of 2.15%.
When the spread started dropping a few years ago, many people thought it was because of 1) advances in the MBS market and 2) increased competition in the mortgage market. Those advances haven't disappeared and neither has the competition - at least not yet.
Best to all.
There is no thirty year duration bond any more. The longest duration of any treasury bond in circulation is 27 years or so from what I read. Now that treasury will start issuing 30-year bond once again we will have that number.
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I am sure everyone here knows what this means.
Mortgages are different from 10-year treasuries, because of the prepayment option. As long-term rates fall relative to short-term rates, the implied expectation of lower rates raises the value of the prepayment option, increasing the spread between mortgages and treasuries.
Mortgage professionals look at the "option-adjusted spread." You should (a) learn what the term means and (b) report on the behavior of this spread.
Finally, if you are interested in investor opinion about the risk of mortgage default, none of these spreads is a useful indicator, because most securities are either guaranteed by Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae or are otherwise "credit enhanced." Investors are well insulated from default risk.
A better indicator of investors views of default risk would be the stock prices of the private mortgage insurance companies.
Arnold,
You are right about using OAS (option adjusted spreads). But they too tell a similar story. The widening in that spread is about the same magnitude that CR has presented in his chart. So, the analysis is not off the mark.
Once we have adjusted for the option, the spread does to some extent reflect default risk. Otherwise, what do you think the spread reflects? Even if mortgages are guranteed, a rise in the percieved riskiness of the guarantor will be reflected in the spread. BTW, private issue MBS have a huge amount of exposure to subprime mortgages and credit enhancement ultimately depends on the credit enhancer.
Stock prices of private mortgage insurers is poor proxy. In recent times, mortgage insurance has become passe as people have bypassed mortgage insurance by taking up piggy-back loans.
Check corporate spreads. The corporate curve is still positively sloped, just like mortgages. No Agency guarantee for corporates. If there has been a shift in relative spreads between corporates and mortgage paper, then we may learn something about the risk and other premia between spread markets.
Make that "default risk and other premia" Sheesh, eye right baad somtims.
Although corporate spreads have widened, mortgage spreads (OAS) have widened more. Clearly, there is more unease over mortgages than over corporates.
One big reason why spreds are wider is because Fannie and Freddie are not growing their mortgage portfolios. The effect of default risk having increased cannot be inferred just by looking at the spread. So its meaning less to say that spreads are widening because investors are shunning mortgages. Its just bond math, higher yields means lower prices .... So if you say yields are higher because prices are lower you havent said anything.
Sharkbait,
Spreads have increased no matter how you slice and dice it. If you look at just private issue by rating and then look as OAS, even then spreads have increased. Your facile explanation just does not cut it.
BTW, Fannie and Freddie' shares in overall mortgage-backed securities has been declining for more than two years. There is nothing new in that. Nor is there any meaningful recent accelration in that trend.
Calculated Risk, where do you predict the Fed Funds Rate will land in Q1 06 taking in the new information such as Dec Nonfarm Payroll & Nov revisal as well as the FEDs meeting minutes?
tea, excellent points! Thanks.
Matt, Dr. Altig provides charts every week (usually on Mondays) of what investors expect over the next couple of Fed meetings. See: Fed Fund Probabilities.
I continue to expect 25 bps increases at the next two meetings (Jan 31 and Mar 28 ), so I'm expecting 4.75% at the end of Q1. Then I expect the Fed to pause ... with the next move down later in the year. Some obervers are expecting a pause after 4.5% - others not until 5% - but we are probably pretty close.
Best to all.
I didnt say that spreads are governed by fannie/freddie -- i just said they are not buying -- and that was one big reason spreads widened. There are many factors that go into pricing of mortgages. But to say that spreads have widened because of increased default risk is wrong because spreads could have widened for many reasons. By the way -- corporates are not as sensitive to volatility so comparing corporates to mortgages doesnt cut it either.
Sharkbait,
Could you please list the reasons why OAS can widen? Please be specific. Remember that we are are considering securities of like maturity--so no interest rate or reinvestment risk.
What volatility are you talking about? As far as I know, there is no vol measure (outside of the commodity markets) that has pumped up. In any case, vol pumping up is reflected in the embedded in the price of the option. So, OAS takes care of that.
Regards
Isn't growing spread related with foreign investors focused on 10-y bonds rather than longer-term securities? What would be spread eliminating differences due to foreign investors? Is it relevant to the question?
Best Regards
Tea, the price of a mortgage is roughly = the price of the obligation - price of the prepay option. The price of the option depends on the strike price (level of rates) and volatility (of rates). The price of the obligation (and the option) also depends on the probability of default -- but most importantly it depends on how much demand there is for this type of asset from investors. Demand is not necessarily a reflection of probability of default implied by the security. For example many investors (such as banks) borrow short and buy long dated high yielding securites such as mortgages (the so called carry trade). But this is less profitable in a flat yield curve environment such as what we have now -- so they do less of it. Spreads also depend on level of rates.
So to conclude that default probabilities have increased you would have to show that everything else stayed constant -- and thats a bit tough. I think that spreads have widened because the curve is flatter, there is less demand from the GSE (fannie/freddie ...) rates are somewhat higher.
What would be interesting is to see how the difference between prime and subprime mortgages has fared.
Sharkbait,
You dont know what you are talking about, frankly. First of all, I used OAS (option adjusted spreads). So, the prepay option issue is not relevant. Second, when you are talking about the spread between two securities that have like maturity (or approximately so)--that is the 10-year Treasury and 30-year fixed rate mortage (based on duration)--then the yield curve is irrelevant. The spread in this case is as close as you will get to a pur measure of default risk. Differences in demand will reflect different default risk appetites, that is all. It is not that complicated at all.
The carry trade issue is irrelevant because it applies as much to long T bonds as it does to fixed rate mortgages. Insoafr as the inverting yield curve and the lack of profits from carry trade increase the spread, it still is a measure of default risk and reflects the perception in the markets of the rising risk of recession.
There are some highly technical issues relating to the shapr of the yield curve that does make the straight spread somewhat misleading. In those cases you need to use something called the Z-spread. For practical purposes, the straight spread between two securities of equal maturity is pretty close to a measure of default risk.
OK, lemme try to explain this again:
Price of a mortgage is
P=f(prob of default, vol, supply demand, treasury curve)
You dont believe that?
Thanks for this great post. You've got some really good info in your blog. If you get a chance, you can check out my blog on {loans new} at Sorry. Page not found..
Mary Anne Martin
Sorry. Page not found..
How should OAS spread duration behave if (everything else kept equal) the default rate (CDR) is increased - for example from 4CDR to 5CDR? What would be the logical explanation of such behaviour? We can logically justify the increase in OAS if default rate increases, but what about sensitivity of price of OAS changes if default rate increases?
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