I am always amazed at how much ink is spilled over this monthly employment report. The fact is that it is volatile and subject to big revisions. Most labor indicators I track, continue to show improvement. It is by no means stellar and certainly tilted toward housing related sectors. But even manufacturing has been adding jobs lately. So, I wouldnt call this all gloom and doom. It is a different matter that employment is a lagging indicator of the economy. It wont turn down until well after stock and bond markets have turned and housing is in serious trouble.
tea, I agree - these reports are analyzed to death. That is why I tried to take a little longer view (the entire year). The individual report might be disappointing, but the year was close to my expectations.
I'm very interested to see what happens to employment as housing slows.
Some more discussion of the employment-to-population ratio would be welcome.
During the last/current downturn in employment, the unemployment rate has been a particularly poor metric of overall labor market activity (or lack thereof).
My take is that 1) long term unemployment has played a disproportionate role this time out - leading to labor market "dropouts" (more like measurement convention artifacts...) that distort the accuracy of the unemployment rate and 2) new (attempted) entrants into the labor market have also been disproportionately hurt - and, again, the UR misleads because attempted entrants never get counted as being in the "labor market" in the first place.
The employment-to-population ratio adjusts for these factors.
I think things are much worse (labor market wise) than is commonly perceived...
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CR,
I am always amazed at how much ink is spilled over this monthly employment report. The fact is that it is volatile and subject to big revisions. Most labor indicators I track, continue to show improvement. It is by no means stellar and certainly tilted toward housing related sectors. But even manufacturing has been adding jobs lately. So, I wouldnt call this all gloom and doom. It is a different matter that employment is a lagging indicator of the economy. It wont turn down until well after stock and bond markets have turned and housing is in serious trouble.
tea, I agree - these reports are analyzed to death. That is why I tried to take a little longer view (the entire year). The individual report might be disappointing, but the year was close to my expectations.
I'm very interested to see what happens to employment as housing slows.
Best Regards.
Bush's tax cuts are responsible for keeping us above the purple line. This is a strong argument for making the tax cuts permanent.
Am curious, CR, the initial unemployement report is usually corrected later.
Has anyone done a study on what the initial bias is?
This is a strong argument for making the tax cuts permanent.
LOL... Go back a few days and check out the debt entry. This ONE should do...
Makes an even better argument to repeal the tax cuts...
tea: Looks like employment is a lagging indicator of our current "prosperity" as well.
Some more discussion of the employment-to-population ratio would be welcome.
During the last/current downturn in employment, the unemployment rate has been a particularly poor metric of overall labor market activity (or lack thereof).
My take is that 1) long term unemployment has played a disproportionate role this time out - leading to labor market "dropouts" (more like measurement convention artifacts...) that distort the accuracy of the unemployment rate and 2) new (attempted) entrants into the labor market have also been disproportionately hurt - and, again, the UR misleads because attempted entrants never get counted as being in the "labor market" in the first place.
The employment-to-population ratio adjusts for these factors.
I think things are much worse (labor market wise) than is commonly perceived...
Hi Friend! I liked your blog!Your blog offers a different model of analysis and interchange!
If you have a moment, please visit my site:
best jobs
Best success to you!