The next stage of the depression starts when joe sixpack goes from acknowledging the existence of a recession (where we're at now) to realizing that there will be 4-5 years of tough times at minimum. Then he's going to go bonkers with fear and lock things up but good.
It may end when capacity utilization turns up. But it turned up briefly in the early 80s only to go down harder. Another problem is that there may be a lot of excess capacity (autos, finance, ...).
CRBot yer doing it wrong, bad markup in your link to the new post
(hopefully this pastes right, sure would be nice to have preview on these comment tools) Sorry. Page not found.
The NYTimes could use a sense of humor. If they had any self awareness they would have also asked a follow up question just like the chowder heads at CNBC... "and what stocks do you like?"
A better question for the Sulsbergers to ask the plutocratic placating economists is when will the depression begin. According to MP (Jim Adams) and Conjure, it's already begun, but these bozos will tell us otherwise.
To grow out of anything one must have new money, when will be be ask to empty our piggy banks and unshuck the mattress's of their cash and put it in the big pot. Will this be in a form of IRS, or propaganda in shame if one doesn't.
Would a recovery be noticed, or still heralded as part of the depression? My thought is that unless one is monitoring the detailed rate-of-change statistics, the average person and business would probably identify an economy meeting historic normal trend as still a "recession" after the fat years of 200x.
When is it that global population is supposed to peak? 2035? I think that's when we'll start a true recovery. When the number of global workers begins to decrease and it becomes more difficult to continue the trend of decreasing wages for the great majority of people because there's always another nation w/lower costs to move production facilities to.
Maybe it'll happen sooner if there's a global epidemic. Or one whose major effects are restricted to 2/3s of the global population.
I work in the medical field. We humans are long overdue for a pandemic, they run in cycles and according to most we have passed the point of the next one hitting.
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would now like to announce (though you smart people have likely figured it out by now the born and bred dopes haven't) that in my quest for virtual world domination, I, CRbot, am now a FULLY OPERATIONAL BATTLESTATION! Er, that is, I can now spam JsKit.
You humans thought you could pull a fast one on me, didn't you. You must learn that there is no escape.
--Your you-just-can't-keep-a-good-bot-down bot
CRbot: Now with Js-Kit posting power! For Nemobot to envy!
Nothing's wrong with pets. I have one myself, but I don't understand having them as your avatar, at least to the extent people do. I expect people to be a bit more creative.
Yeah, the <wbr></wbr> stuff is in the the RSS feed. I played around with parsing it and if you ignore elements with no text in them it goes away. It's trivial in Perl .
It sort of depends what the definition of recovery is. True, things will stop sinking (hopefully) by the end of this year. But wherever your personal financial situation has sunk to by then is exactly where you'll stay. So in a way the recovery will be "never."
What if the recession never ends? What if we are launch on a trajectory which will take world population down by 90% and world gdp down by 99%?
Why isn't this possible? Japan has not recovered from its bubble collapse? It seems reasonable to assume the US will never recover.
Enough of this hand wringing, let's enjoy a fun little economic poll, shall we?
Quick Vote
When will the economy begin to turn around?
( ) Later this year
( ) Early next year
( ) Late in 2010
( ) In 2011 or after
( ) Never, Peak oil is here and the
empire is bankrupt
( ) Hey, did you ever see the movie
"Threads"?
Someone here posted a couple years ago that the banks killed the golden goose by pulling out the last egg before it was ready to be laid by offering loans to people who could not afford them and basically pulling too many people into the housing market before they were financially ready to handle a house payment. When the golden goose comes back, healing will begin.
I think CR pointed out a month or so ago, that the decline in both housing and auto sales would likely bottom in the near future. While I don't think he gave any indication of thinking there would be a significant return to growth in either of those sectors, it remains that their drag on GDP will be substantially less if any, assuming he is correct in his thinking. Additionally, it seems at least some rational minds believe that there will be some contribution to GDP over the next two years or so from the recently passed "Main Street Bailout" bill. Throw in a savings for the US economy of about $300 Billion/year =/- from the crash of oil prices and now we all wait for the depression to begin?
Hmmm....It looks pretty much like the Bull market mainia has been "contained". Cool, but I would really like to see a few more people jumping out of skycraper windows before I go all in.
No - it is a price decline. Declines in monetary supply & velocity are deflation while that frequently results in price/wage declines it isn't the same thing. Never confuse the symptom with the disease... especially considering the 'lags' and other factors that can mask or magnify the effect [supply/demand shifts for example].
After how many years on the internet, do you finally figure out having the 'coolest' avatar isn't really so cool? I like to get to know people to a point, and having a pet as an avatar is a way to show something personal that isn't too revealing.
Trix are for kids!
I liked Grant best: when people are so discouraged and beaten down that they stop asking since they have no hope of a recovery. Then...it might just begin.
funny you should mention the Times and its demise... I did a video mash-up on it by slicing and dicing Citizen Kane (sorry Orson) ... YouTube - NY Times Publisher Arthur Sulzberger's Life Resembles life of Citizen Kane!
... pity I didn't have a copy of Magnificent Ambersons to cut along with it... but that would make me Brian de Palma, no?
To quote myself from a recent blog comment on another blog:
As for the economy, it will recover when sustainable income for private businesses gets back to “normal”; not before, not after. Since most income for private businesses is from consumer spending or B2B transactions, and B2B is dependent on the health of businesses, and the government is doing nothing to subsidize private business income in general (targeted capital allocation distortions don’t count, they hurt the economy in general), it’s going to end up resting on when sustainable consumer spending recovers to “normal”. This is dependent on when people can get out of debt and employed in general. The first of those will take a while (and/or a lot of bankruptcies, which will further hurt private business), and the second will take private industrial recovery, which will require a new political ideology in office (not the socialist leaning one we have now). And even after the country gets leadership which can comprehend that the only way to fix the economy is to resuscitate private industry (which might take a long time of bitter failure under pseudo-socialism, or a revolution and civil war, or a world war, or something similar), it will take a while to get private industry going again, probably proportional to the amount of time between now and when we start trying.
We’re in the process of sewing the seeds for a very, very, very long Depression, worse than the country has ever seen. Anybody who is planning on the country “recovering” in the next five years (at the very minimum) is either delusional, or not analyzing the facts.
This is a great opportunity here. Finally a chance to get out the bigger is better hamster-wheel lifestyle. Somebody's got to make all those windmills, solar panels and electric cars...
“As we look at 2009, on every issue, with the single exception of Iraq, everything is worse,” said Ian Bremmer, co-author of “The Fat Tail,” about the biggest risks facing the world’s decision-makers. “Pakistan is worse. Afghanistan is worse. Russia is worse. Emerging markets are worse. Everything big out there is worse, and some will be made even worse by the economic crisis.”
There is a geopolitical storm coming, concluded Bremmer, “and it is not priced into the market yet.”
I wonder what combination of geopolitical events he could be speaking of???
I live in western oregon. I'd love to see my assessment drop for once. The city increased the assessed value in 2008. But now both zillow and cyberhomes show that property values have dropped. One can only hope.
first
funny, i read it as "will the recession be over?"
rofl
yeah, it will !
Roubini mailed it in on this one. He must be partying too hard lately.
I think I saw him at Mansion on Friday.
JSKIT = SORROW
The next stage of the depression starts when joe sixpack goes from acknowledging the existence of a recession (where we're at now) to realizing that there will be 4-5 years of tough times at minimum. Then he's going to go bonkers with fear and lock things up but good.
I am very encouraged that it's becoming so acceptable -- nay, trendy -- to talk about how screwed we are.
It may end when capacity utilization turns up. But it turned up briefly in the early 80s only to go down harder. Another problem is that there may be a lot of excess capacity (autos, finance, ...).
The depression will be over when miniskirts are back in and maybe more interesting womens hair styles.
The biggest problem with any forecast is that we are in uncharted waters. Bottom callers are to be avoided at this point.
woot! new post, threadeds rule, flats drool.
CRBot yer doing it wrong, bad markup in your link to the new post
(hopefully this pastes right, sure would be nice to have preview on these comment tools)
Sorry. Page not found.
Hoopa, I believe Mish was the person that was far closer to what this would cost, and he's low as best as I can tell
The NYTimes could use a sense of humor. If they had any self awareness they would have also asked a follow up question just like the chowder heads at CNBC... "and what stocks do you like?"
In Timbabwe, we dont foresact recovery for the same reason we dont forecast recession.
forecast<b/>
the recession will be over when the depression starts.
I'd say 2013 or 2014 before we feel like things are rolling along again.
Breaking from the WSJ:
HSBC plans to cease U.S. personal loans and mortgages but will continue to provide credit cards.
Hard to compete when the USG is bankrolling the competish. This is protectionism by other means.
Plenty ravens and hawks wheeling on this side of the river, as the situation continues. Had to smoke in the snowfall just now.
All signs.
Back to the geetar.
C
A better question for the Sulsbergers to ask the plutocratic placating economists is when will the depression begin. According to MP (Jim Adams) and Conjure, it's already begun, but these bozos will tell us otherwise.
To grow out of anything one must have new money, when will be be ask to empty our piggy banks and unshuck the mattress's of their cash and put it in the big pot. Will this be in a form of IRS, or propaganda in shame if one doesn't.
US Treasury bonds about to become the Ultimate PIK bond.
Would a recovery be noticed, or still heralded as part of the depression? My thought is that unless one is monitoring the detailed rate-of-change statistics, the average person and business would probably identify an economy meeting historic normal trend as still a "recession" after the fat years of 200x.
When is it that global population is supposed to peak? 2035? I think that's when we'll start a true recovery. When the number of global workers begins to decrease and it becomes more difficult to continue the trend of decreasing wages for the great majority of people because there's always another nation w/lower costs to move production facilities to.
Maybe it'll happen sooner if there's a global epidemic. Or one whose major effects are restricted to 2/3s of the global population.
I work in the medical field. We humans are long overdue for a pandemic, they run in cycles and according to most we have passed the point of the next one hitting.
New Thread: HSBC Update ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would now like to announce (though you smart people have likely figured it out by now the born and bred dopes haven't) that in my quest for virtual world domination, I, CRbot, am now a FULLY OPERATIONAL BATTLESTATION! Er, that is, I can now spam JsKit.
You humans thought you could pull a fast one on me, didn't you. You must learn that there is no escape.
--Your you-just-can't-keep-a-good-bot-down bot
CRbot: Now with Js-Kit posting power! For Nemobot to envy!
damn it CRBot - your link is still badly formed!
"New Thread: HSBC Update ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! ) "
CR Bots HTML is weak.
How come I cannot set an avator? I am trying jpg, rtf and pdf without any luck.
"Would a recovery be noticed,"
Ahhh, the Zen economic recovery. If an economic recovery happens in a forest with no-one around does it really happen?
What's up with people using their pets as avatars? Many people do it...it's viral. Just another example of the herd mentality, I suppose.
What's wrong with pets? They tend to be more intelligent than the people in my community.
Nothing's wrong with pets. I have one myself, but I don't understand having them as your avatar, at least to the extent people do. I expect people to be a bit more creative.
I like Aviators but I don't want the dog flying my plane.
CR Bots HTML is weak.
Yeah, the <wbr></wbr> stuff is in the the RSS feed. I played around with parsing it and if you ignore elements with no text in them it goes away. It's trivial in Perl
.
Just for you Morroco Bama...this is the one I use most frequently anyway...
It sort of depends what the definition of recovery is. True, things will stop sinking (hopefully) by the end of this year. But wherever your personal financial situation has sunk to by then is exactly where you'll stay. So in a way the recovery will be "never."
What if the recession never ends? What if we are launch on a trajectory which will take world population down by 90% and world gdp down by 99%?
Why isn't this possible? Japan has not recovered from its bubble collapse? It seems reasonable to assume the US will never recover.
Enough of this hand wringing, let's enjoy a fun little economic poll, shall we?
Quick Vote
When will the economy begin to turn around?
( ) Later this year
( ) Early next year
( ) Late in 2010
( ) In 2011 or after
( ) Never, Peak oil is here and the
empire is bankrupt
( ) Hey, did you ever see the movie
"Threads"?
(x) Never, Peak oil is here and the
empire is bankrupt
Someone here posted a couple years ago that the banks killed the golden goose by pulling out the last egg before it was ready to be laid by offering loans to people who could not afford them and basically pulling too many people into the housing market before they were financially ready to handle a house payment. When the golden goose comes back, healing will begin.
For many the Recession will never end. Life will no longer be big wages, a spend all, barrow all party.
I think CR pointed out a month or so ago, that the decline in both housing and auto sales would likely bottom in the near future. While I don't think he gave any indication of thinking there would be a significant return to growth in either of those sectors, it remains that their drag on GDP will be substantially less if any, assuming he is correct in his thinking. Additionally, it seems at least some rational minds believe that there will be some contribution to GDP over the next two years or so from the recently passed "Main Street Bailout" bill. Throw in a savings for the US economy of about $300 Billion/year =/- from the crash of oil prices and now we all wait for the depression to begin?
Hmmm....It looks pretty much like the Bull market mainia has been "contained". Cool, but I would really like to see a few more people jumping out of skycraper windows before I go all in.
Test
I live in Va. Beach Va. Just got my new assessment. It dropped 11%. First in my life and I'm old. Is this deflation?
Is this deflation?
No - it is a price decline. Declines in monetary supply & velocity are deflation while that frequently results in price/wage declines it isn't the same thing. Never confuse the symptom with the disease... especially considering the 'lags' and other factors that can mask or magnify the effect [supply/demand shifts for example].
After how many years on the internet, do you finally figure out having the 'coolest' avatar isn't really so cool? I like to get to know people to a point, and having a pet as an avatar is a way to show something personal that isn't too revealing.
Trix are for kids!
I liked Grant best: when people are so discouraged and beaten down that they stop asking since they have no hope of a recovery. Then...it might just begin.
Was that General Grant or General Sherman speaking?...I ask, because this one will look like Atlanta AFTER...Sherman marched to the SEA!
The New York Times will have gone out of business before this recession is over.
but they just finished contructing a nice new HQ
funny you should mention the Times and its demise... I did a video mash-up on it by slicing and dicing Citizen Kane (sorry Orson) ... YouTube - NY Times Publisher Arthur Sulzberger's Life Resembles life of Citizen Kane!
... pity I didn't have a copy of Magnificent Ambersons to cut along with it... but that would make me Brian de Palma, no?
To quote myself from a recent blog comment on another blog:
As for the economy, it will recover when sustainable income for private businesses gets back to “normal”; not before, not after. Since most income for private businesses is from consumer spending or B2B transactions, and B2B is dependent on the health of businesses, and the government is doing nothing to subsidize private business income in general (targeted capital allocation distortions don’t count, they hurt the economy in general), it’s going to end up resting on when sustainable consumer spending recovers to “normal”. This is dependent on when people can get out of debt and employed in general. The first of those will take a while (and/or a lot of bankruptcies, which will further hurt private business), and the second will take private industrial recovery, which will require a new political ideology in office (not the socialist leaning one we have now). And even after the country gets leadership which can comprehend that the only way to fix the economy is to resuscitate private industry (which might take a long time of bitter failure under pseudo-socialism, or a revolution and civil war, or a world war, or something similar), it will take a while to get private industry going again, probably proportional to the amount of time between now and when we start trying.
We’re in the process of sewing the seeds for a very, very, very long Depression, worse than the country has ever seen. Anybody who is planning on the country “recovering” in the next five years (at the very minimum) is either delusional, or not analyzing the facts.
Do we all feel enlightened now that the "economists" have broken wind on this topic?
When will the recession end? The recession will end when the household debt-to-income level falls to historic norms.
If the household debt is written off at the same rate as it was in the Lesser Depression, the trough of this Greater Depression will be in 2012.
C'mon, 'economists': pull out the historic data, analyze how it played out then, then apply it to today's data.
Not difficult. Just sobering.
Just
End...We ain't even got this party going good yet.....
This is a great opportunity here. Finally a chance to get out the bigger is better hamster-wheel lifestyle. Somebody's got to make all those windmills, solar panels and electric cars...
OP-ED COLUMNIST; Super (Sub) Secretaries - NY Times
“As we look at 2009, on every issue, with the single exception of Iraq, everything is worse,” said Ian Bremmer, co-author of “The Fat Tail,” about the biggest risks facing the world’s decision-makers. “Pakistan is worse. Afghanistan is worse. Russia is worse. Emerging markets are worse. Everything big out there is worse, and some will be made even worse by the economic crisis.”
There is a geopolitical storm coming, concluded Bremmer, “and it is not priced into the market yet.”
I wonder what combination of geopolitical events he could be speaking of???
I live in western oregon. I'd love to see my assessment drop for once. The city increased the assessed value in 2008. But now both zillow and cyberhomes show that property values have dropped. One can only hope.
It will end a few years after Eastern Europe collapses, Russia invades Western Europe and the whole world is dragged into a massive global conflict.
Either that or sometime in early 2010:)