They includes Elie Weisel (sp) and his foundation.
My grandmother always said don't put your eggs all in one basket. Why did this piece of wisdom go away?
You can always use the the capital loss to offset future gains, deduct them from gross income, and you can even repurchase the shares a month later if you just really want to own GE.
Obama DESTROYED any hope that the market can stabilize -- Killed the military-industrials, Health Care & energy with carbon emmisions. There is now no bottom anywhere in sight.
BS bearly - wait at least a year for the crowing... this is still Bush's clusterfuck. It will be Obama's mess soon enough [next year & from then on if it hasn't started to get better - I certainly doubt it will]. But it just makes you look like a complete partisan tool trying to pin this on him now - wait a year - he'll own his share of the mistakes by then unless he really is the messiah.
No matter what poo we fling around (partisan or not), this carbon cap and trade BS isn't good for energy. Socialized medicine will tank private health care companies as nationalization does by definition. Cuts in military spending aren't good for the Raytheon's of the world.
No matter what poo we fling around (partisan or not), this carbon cap and trade BS isn't good for energy. Socialized medicine will tank private health care companies as nationalization does by definition. Cuts in military spending aren't good for the Raytheon's of the world.
Bearly has a point with his diatribe.
But that ISN'T what is causing 'the crash' - this was a clusterfuck in process well before BO stepped into it. Those policies needed to be addressed (health care expenses, military expenses & energy)... they would have had issues regardless of who won last fall. The crash is a result of past debt binge collapsing NOT current BO policy. To say otherwise is partisan BS. A year from now BO will own some if not most of the problems by then.
dry, can you read ? I said he's destroying the few remaining sectors that had not yet collapsed. The only sectors where our international position is dominant. That means we get an all-out collapse. And what's worse is he's not taking the steps necessary to correct the fraud. He's a stooge.
Yes I can read - you call him a 'stooge' after a few months - hell you were saying that BEFORE he was elected - you are partisan hack.
Give it a break - wait until some of the stuff he's done blows up - my guess is you'll have plenty of opportunity to crow in about a year'.e Right now your just a GOP shill.
Sorry dryfly, Obama got full ownership of this thing at 12:01pm on Jan 20th. Every single thing he has done since has made our situation exponentially worse. We all need to face up to this reality immediately.
BO is doing my bidding. He is doing everything possible to make sure the ultimate collapse will be absolutely spectacular. The grand finally will make me cream in my jeans. Keep up the good work BO. My entertainment comes first.
OB is out to destroy private everything! He is pushing for Government dependenced. It is all about control people. Government employees got raises and private gets pink slips, reduced wages, Taxes raised. Loaded government spending is not stimulus for the long run.
The way I see it from a high level, the markets are a forward-looking vote of confidence. The market does not appear confident that this den mother knows what he's doing. He's floundering and clueless - all a direct result of his inexperience. We're doomed - doomed I tell you.
bearly, do you remember 911...9 months or so into bush prezidency?
i remember the republican talking heads saying, oh my, oh my, dont blame bush administration this is clintons fault we have only been in town a few months (with countless warnings from fbi agents in minnesota and arizona...blame blame blame clinton
or how bout this...remember tim mcveigh, it was mid april, new clinton admin...not four months...nobody blamed pappy bush for that...or the crazy camp of religoius wackos at the koresch waco texas compound, the invasion, planned before clinton took office and then a month later executed and bothched...oh oh all clintons fault
if you want anybody here to respect your criticism of obama, and many criticism will be due him, then dont talk to us like you a right wing puppet ok? intelligent criticism of bho is welcome
bearly, do you remember 911...9 months or so into bush prezidency?
i remember the republican talking heads saying, oh my, oh my, dont blame bush administration this is clintons fault we have only been in town a few months (with countless warnings from fbi agents in minnesota and arizona...blame blame blame clinton
or how bout this...remember tim mcveigh, it was mid april, new clinton admin...not four months...nobody blamed pappy bush for that...or the crazy camp of religoius wackos at the koresch waco texas compound, the invasion, planned before clinton took office and then a month later executed and bothched...oh oh all clintons fault
if you want anybody here to respect your criticism of obama, and many criticism will be due him, then dont talk to us like you a right wing puppet ok? intelligent criticism of bho is welcome
OK, Obama will transform the USA into a community activist and class action attorney heaven on earth with wind energy as the new power generating system and collective farms generating the prosperity for his 300mm sujects. His plans are going to leave us poorer. Not sure whether we had a choice but to have lower living standards but to have that as a goal seems like a doomer's dream.
sms says:
Today, 10:42:27
“Another leg down...how many legs does the market have?
\t
Like this comment? [yes] [no] (Score: 0 by
Community assigned karma score: 0 by 0
Mark as offensive
\t
reply
delete
edit
moderate
gabyjan replies:
Today, 10:46:12
“its a millipede
Just finished reading "Power and Prosperity: Outgrowing Communist and Capitalist Dictatorships" by Mancur Olson this weekend. I highly recommend it, though some of the logical analysis in it comes across as a bit pedantic and tedious at times - the merit comes from formulating seemingly obscure ideas and then testing them against the real world and showing that they predict and describe real world phenomena (i.e. good science). This book along with "Collapse of Complex Societies" in my opinion are two of the most scientifically sober books I've read recently concerning economies and seem to defy a lot of the ideology that blinds contemporary economics.
Even on NCIS, there is doom. Tim the nerdiest one made a bunch of money selling his crime novels, and invested in a hedge fund which went under. None of our heros are allowed to be rich.
Liz, NICS being a mil-propaganda show, it will soon be revealed that poor Timothy was tricked into the bad investment by wily terrorists who slipped into America and enrolled in Trump University classes so they could learn how to undermine our system!
An upcoming episode entitled "Bailouts Away" will reveal the NICS team's plan to make Tim whole: joint USAF and Israeli carpet bombing runs over the perps's village until the Islamofascists scrape up the dough to pay our plucky Tim back! Sorry if these are spoilers.
I half expected the ISM to be under the December low - Dec was something like 32.8... a bit surprised it didn't happen.
As for ISM employment hitting record low - no surprise at all. I was talking to a hydraulics company last Friday. They are doing 'rolling lay offs' - one week division x shuts down & everyone stays home w/out pay... next week division y. It is a four week rolling schedule - once every four weeks an entire division [plants all over NAFTA ZONE] takes its turn at being idle. They have already had a large permanent reduction [something like 5% of what was already a pretty lean firm]... my guess is they do it again & bigger [>5%]...
Don't get into the precious metals until the start of the next quarter. Let the big financial institutions do their selling at the end of March to make their balance sheets look better.
There was too much overcapacity, anyway, so this isn't necessarily a bad thing. What to do with all the laid off employees is a bad thing. Maybe they can become members of Obama's Citizens Corp and volunteer their services for the betterment of society. It's not as if they need to eat. They've stored up enough fat to carry them through to the next millenium.
Manufacturing has been in long-term decline for the 'developed' world, relative to GDP, for years. Not enough profit in it, and tremendous overhead, as compared to finance (or so it was thought).
That will change. Finance is ALL overhead [salaries & offices = expense and NOT necessarily producing revenue]... that will be the lesson from this exercise. White collar is the new blue collar [expendable].
Economic data from Europe added to the dismal atmosphere in the market. The Markit euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index sank in February to a record low of 33.5 from 34.4 in January.
On Monday, the Japan Automobile Dealers Association said in a statement that auto sales in February declined 32.4 percent, the seventh consecutive monthly decline.
Japan last week reported that exports in January declined by nearly half from a year ago, while South Korea on Monday released data for February — the first in the region to issue data for that month — showing a 17 percent plunge in exports.
I predicted the Dow at 6500-6600 by midyear. What is with the space time continuum? Things keep happening earlier than they should. Is Doc Brown investing off of information from the future and distorting markets?
Well, it's at the 6 handle and I'm still chicken. I mean, I was gonna get back in when it went down a ridiculous 4000 points at 10000. Now it's THREE THOUSAND points lower than that, and I'm still chicken.
A buy order at 40 for JNJ? at 21 for Campbell's???
Are we not gonna be able to afford deodorant and chicken noodle soup?
My concern w/ JNJ is it seems to be following GEs model - buy growth [small companies w/ new products] & not develop it 'organically'.
I have NOT looked at JNJ carefully so don't know - just my suspicion from calling on some of their ops - so don't use this as investment advice - do your own due dilly. But I would look at them REAL carefully.
As for the market, when I look at a long term log chart of the S&P 500, I see a steep ascent that started in 1995, and I see a longer term trend line that connects the lows from 1975 and 1983, and that trend line intersects today at some point below 500.
--
Welkomen to the Free Market operated by Financial Nazis of America. The Scam Market! And a freedom-driven political system operated by a fraudulent government selected by Financial Nazis of America!! No?
Hoo boo buh buh nazis buh buh dopes buh blah buh blah blah. At least you could set it to music, like this guy: YouTube - chaccaron
It doesn't mean anything, but at least it's got a funky beat. CHACARRON MACARRON!
--
It is important to keep the backdrop in the forefront when analysing a situation. It is the saga of dopes and Financial Nazis. Germans were dopes too, you know, and they are lot smarter then born-and-bred Americans. American dopes are intellectually pathetic type considering all the advantages that they inherited.
Monsanto, Bill & Melinda Gates, Warren Buffet, and numerous nations have constructed the "Doomsday" seed vault in Norway.
When GM crops take over all native crops, the rich and powerful will still have access to the world's last store of native crop seeds while the rest of us have to eat nutritionally-reduced GM crops.
As for the market, when I look at a long term log chart of the S&P 500, I see a steep ascent that started in 1995, and I see a longer term trend line that connects the lows from 1975 and 1983, and that trend line intersects today at some point below 500.
I was looking at the same thing this weekend and scratching my head. Even as pessimistic as I am I have trouble seeing(afraid of seeing perhaps) another 50% decline in the market.
but, wait a minute......kudlow just said the ism is making a bottom, wages have been up for 3 straight months and spending is up....the recovery is here...happy mustard seeds everyone
I think the automotive supply chain might already be dead.
Here is something to consider - what would actually happen IF there was an increase in automobile demand? The OEMs would order 'systems' (cockpit consoles, hydraulics, power plants & transmissions - etc.)... those companies would order components & sub-assemblies... these suppliers would order & make loose parts.... loose parts makers order raw materials... raw material makers ramp up the smelt & refining and buy more ore & scrap.
At every stage the supplier has to have operating capital [cash or line of credit] because they have to buy supplies, produce and ship BEFORE they get paid. Sometimes they have as many as 120 days into it before they get paid... meaning they need something like 1/3 of a years COGS worth of working capital at a MINIMUM just to keep from BK.
And that is at every level of the supply chain.
I don't think it is there. Just my semi-informed guess but I think a 'recovery' will generate more BKs than the recession. JMHO.
I think the automotive supply chain might already be dead. - Dryfly
You said what I've been afraid to say. In the 30s people were hungry and farmers couldn't sell their products. Nobody could understand why supply and demand couldn't get together. The chain was broken.
Cheer? I suspect we won't be much lower a year from now. Better? Microsoft is getting close to cash on hand value. I don't see how it can go much lower. AAPL is going to hi a near term low on the vaporware claims of Windows 7. The alternative energy companies are going to be screaming buys after their bubble bursts. The apricot tree is setting a lot of fruit this season. Take what you can get Liz and do preventative mantainence on your car because only top quality will hold value.
I must admit, most people I know are still doing great. Out for dinner and drinks this weekend, had a great time. This whole depression meme is really only found only the blogs....or maybe the people I know are just dont live in fear
Agreed. I was at a party on Saturday, and it was straight out of 1929. People were oblivious - wilfully so. Hosts had no savings, were paying a fortune for an expensive pad, and while they admitted they might lose their jobs, they were convinced they'd find new ones without any trouble. No need to chance lifestyle. It was like watching people try to pretend their house wasn't on fire.
Yes, people still think the old economic paradigm is just temporarily offline and will return shortly. My elderly neighbor has taken big hits on her investments. And the house she bought seven years ago needed heavy siding repairs and required her to take out a second (because she doesn't want to cash in her stocks at a loss). But she thinks it's all coming back. She's fixing up the house to sell and get out from under the big mortgage "in a year or two when prices come back." We're on the California coast; prices haven't even finished going away yet.
She was trying to shake me down for painting my half of a garage building we own in common, to match the new color of her house. I refused; the garage paint is fine. But it no longer matches her house, and she's convinced that'll hurt her chances to sell. Now I'm an enemy. Hard to deal with a frightened 80-ish year-old.
Rob Dawg says:
Today, 8:04:31 AM
“Stop looking at the S&P or DJIA. Look at the transports. DJT -4% and Dryships -10%. As Dryfly notes above, the economy is shutting down in stages.
.........................
The Dryships is scary. Do you think that will ever translate to empty shelves, or is that too extreme of an outcome?
Empty shelves are already undeniable. My datum is gong to a Target store and looking at the higher end cosmetics aisle. Stuff that has been 10 deep of every item is 2-3 deep and some are empty. These are high dollar items. I saw this yesterday shopping for a new mower, fewer models and fewer in stock.
And the result? I expect a flattening of the supply chain. That means even more bad news for the CRE segment as we plain od won't need as many warehouses.
Actually sort of. I checked the website for mowers and was unimpressed with selection. HD's website is a crime against the stockholders. Lowe's website is pretty good. I know what I want now. 21" self propelled large wheeled with either an OHV/4S or Honda engine and bag optional. Craigslist is the store of choice but a new 0% interest purchase may be the default. Truth is my comment above: the Target is next to the HD in Camarillo where I live.
I'm not sure that your Target experience tells us anything about inventory levels or supply chains in the broader economy. Target simply does a terrible job of keeping its shelved stocked with stuff that people want to buy, and customer assistance is non-existent. It's just a lousy business. You don't get those problems at Wal-mart.
A Watson Wyatt survey of 245 large firms found that February was sort of the blow-off month for ditching employees. As of February, only 13% expect to continue staff cuts, down from 23% in December (the survey is done very 2 months), after a big rise in those actually cutting jobs. That fits right in with a dreadful employment index from ISM. We'll see if service producers report a big slump in employment when they report on Wednesday.
By the way, I don't care who you blame for the latest drop in stocks. If our stock market depends on medical insurers impoverishing their customers and the US building weapons that haven't actually made us safer on our own soil in a very long time, we need a new stock market.
What people don't understand is that this is capacity destruction not capacity idling. It will take years to replicate what we are dissipating over a period of weeks.
Next up; Larder O will propose an Industrial Policy like Japan to forestall this series of events.
Pimco’s view is to “shake hands with the government; make them your partner by acknowledging that their checkbook represents the largest and most potent source of buying power in 2009 and beyond,” he wrote last month.
crispy & cole: I must admit, most people I know are still doing great. Out for dinner and drinks this weekend, had a great time. This whole depression meme is really only found only the blogs....or maybe the people I know are just dont live in fear
In all seriousness, I see this too. Why? I think it has to do with job security. If you're around people who believe their income is secure, they'll spend it on going out. So perhaps the question is this: what do your friends do?
Everything is normal here as well. We tried to get reservations on Friday at one of the nicer places in town it was a no-go unless we wanted to eat at 10pm. I live in no-where's ville, btw.
My sister works as an event planner / reservationist at a restaurant in well-to-do subarb of New York. She says weekend bookings are very strong -- they turn people away -- but week nights are weak. Her take is that people are only going out once a week, and everyone wants to do it on the weekends.
What happened to the good-old stock market crashes? When and why did equities start resorting to Chinese water torture instead of just getting it over with? I'd like to see a nice, bloody crash that shuts down the NYSE for the day.
"But at least if you hate your job you won't be QUITE as bummed when they lay you off..."
Silver lining in my case, no question. But I picked this dog of a position for the job/benefits security; worst case, I have another year. And with luck I can still get benes off the wife.
You misread that. Deninger is reporting what someone else said on another website. He's countering that claim.
Sorry, my mistake. So what was his point: that deficits DO matter? Yes, they do.
I'm trying to see whether this guy posits any sort of solution. So far I haven't seen one.
The solution to a depression is a depression. the answer is plain, it's just that no one wants to admit it.
Sportsfan, you need to read more of Denninger than the occasional piece. Over the last 6 months he has proposed some VERY specific solutions that make excellent sense.
I disagree with Denninger about some things (and in fact have gotten into some pissing matches with him on his forum) but on the whole he is amazingly on-target. My major beef with him is that he has adhered too strongly to the deflationist viewpoint, but lately he has finally started to come around on that, acknowledging that inflation (and even hyperinflation) are more than just remote possibilities now.
Man. This JS-Kit stuff has way too much 'friction'. Reduces commenting velocity. I think we need a commenting stimulus. Perhaps Nemo & CRBot can build something to comment on our behalf. So that we can rebuild and revive our comment economy.
duke: I'm not addressed, but the answer is yes. You will be much happier. Windows 7 feels more integrated. It's like someone actually thought it through. The RC should be even better based on the statements about what changes they are making. Also much better on lean systems.
Yeppers. Win7 is the best gaming platform ever. If you want to get work done...well I like Unix. 7's got bells and whistles that work fairly well...and better command line...or so it seems. Or maybe I just don't hate working with it so I do more.
hey, anyone remember "the 9 billion names of god?" where the guys are leaving the monastery and, quietly and without any fuss, overhead, the stars were winking out?
A.C. Clarke. An unforgettable story. What was going to take the monks a billion years to finish was automated and things happened much faster than anyone expected.
We have redirected all savings to cash and TIPS bonds. Nothing is going into stocks, we stopped the index fund contributions in before Christmas. We have no debt other than the mortgage, and we hope to sell the house and buy all cash in a different area. I'll be going back to work at some point, so we should be able to put away about 50% of net income, at least. Since I'm already in risky investments due to government forcing, I see no reason why I should risk anything further. If I do get back 'in the market,' it won't be the American one.
scone, do they have a market on Mars? I don't see any other markets as being a viable option at this point...they all fall down...keeps running through my head.
My best advice is to relax, save as much as you can, exercise, eat healthy. This thing could last two years, and worrying for that long can do damage to your body. I'm just saying, patience and a Zen-like attitude can be helpful rather than harmful, KWIM?
Having said that, here's my thinking, for the longer term. The Chinese are the only ones left, more or less, with deep pockets. So which nations have stable regimes, and sell stuff to the Chinese, rather than borrowing from them? Just a thought.
"My best advice is to relax, save as much as you can, exercise, eat healthy. This thing could last two years, and worrying for that long can do damage to your body. I'm just saying, patience and a Zen-like attitude can be helpful rather than harmful, KWIM? "
Staying healthy is the hard part. At my job, the worse things get the more they ratchet up the work and pressure. Less and less time to take care of myself. I know I'm not the only one, either, at this job and nationwide.
Denninger has been increasingly prolific and prescient in his postings. At what point do enough people read him that he becomes a direct threat to TPTB?
I hope he doesn't fly in small planes
Virgil said: "What happened to the good-old stock market crashes? When and why did equities start resorting to Chinese water torture instead of just getting it over with? I'd like to see a nice, bloody crash that shuts down the NYSE for the day."
You might want to just try to make peace with the situation. The 1973-'74 bear market looked like this. No matter how "undervalued" or "oversold" it got the market would simply rally briefly to correct the excess and then go down again. Went on that way for about 20 months, peak to trough, and this current "unpleasantness" has only lasted about 16 months.
i like the imagery of the cascade. it seems appropriate.
anyone here participate in db plans at work, public or private? cause i gotta tell ya, from experience, most of them employ "consultants" to do the asset allocations and theyre almost always heavy in equity and "nontraditional" and they use what, 8% expected returns?
toast.
im just wondering if any plan sponsors are sending out any stuff like, "ok, dont worry, cause its coming back ANY TIME NOW..."
I convinced most of my co-workers to stop investing in our db plans and they sent a guy over to give us a clinic. I laughed at him and walked out. That was when the dow was at 8500
CNBC subscription to watching your retirement go down the dumper, $55 dollars.
Sleeping bag to stay warm after foreclosure: $67 dollars
Having to eat your children for dinner, Priceless: http://starr.pausd.org/~lgoldman/mmart3/class/16/saturn.gif
Unless I missed it, I don't believe CR has had a post about old-Europe's rejection of Hungary's bailout proposal. I suspect that is providing a bit of turbulence to trading positions today.
Yeah, but I'm not sure how that'll play out. The EU summit rejected that plan but essentially said they would bail-out any country that needed it. The problem with Hungary's plan was that included bailing out countries that didn't want it, like the Czech Republic and Poland
Want to buy some Citi debt? The interest rates keep going up. Lots of it around 22-27% today.
Oh, and a note to rating agencies. There is a reason Citi's bonds are yielding higher interest than most of the bonds on my screen that are B- to BB+. Probably everyone on CR knows Citi's ratings are too high.
Goya lived at a time of great turmoil. He tried to tell the truth, and had to go into exile. Like all great artists he was in close touch with the truth, and it with him, and the truth burns as it purifies.
[The crash is a result of past debt binge collapsing NOT current BO policy. To say otherwise is partisan BS. A year from now BO will own some if not most of the problems by then.]
TOTALLY agreed. Initial Bush and current Obama strategy will do nothing but hasten the emptying of the community pool.
A new era begins. I was born in the third decade of the last century. One sees the changes. This present economic crisis is the birth pang of something newly born.
THE PAINTER
My father would have been a hundred
In this year two thousand nine,
Felon time that peace confounded,
What punishment would be condign?
Slaughter, soldier and civilian,
Thievery and rank oppression,
Madness civil and of state,
Dread and paranoia, hate -
Disorder swept along the globe
Through pacifist and xenophobe
And we the little ate our bread,
If it lacked we starved instead,
And I remember him as young,
Hopeful, thoughtful and high-strung
Who painted once a bright sunrise
To light the valley of the lies,
Children rushing on to greet
The dawn of it with gladsome feet -
O father having lost such love
What finding of it do you prove?
Like this comment? [yes] [no] (Score: 0 by
Community assigned karma score: 0 by 0
Mark as offensive
\t
reply
delete
edit
moderate
Rob Dawg replies:
Today, 8:25:34 AM “Empty shelves are already undeniable. My datum is gong to a Target store and looking at the higher end cosmetics aisle. Stuff that has been 10 deep of every item is 2-3 deep and some are empty. These are high dollar items. I saw this yesterday shopping for a new mower, fewer models and fewer in stock.
I was at Lowe's getting last minute stuff for an electrical project and noticed a little ceiling fan I liked was down to 2 on the shelf. I figured I'd best buy it now, since it was probably being phased out.
Both manufacturers and retailers are having a harder time getting credit to finance inventory sitting around. A second factor is lowering inventory levels generates cashflow. It works for a while, but eventually the shelves are bare.
Crazy crazy world crazy crazy times
Crazy crazy world crazy crazy times
Hang up your chairs to better sweep
Clear the floor to dance
Shake the rug into the fireplace
Crazy crazy world crazy crazy times
Crazy crazy world crazy crazy times
Hang up your chairs to better sweep
Clear the floor to dance
Sweep the floor into the fireplace
Hang up your chairs to better sweep
Clear the floor to dance
Throw the chairs into the fireplace
Hang up your chairs to better sweep
Clear the floor to dance
Throw the walls into the fireplace
The entire supply chain analogy that was used could also be applied to the stock market. Critical pieces failed, and now we are seeing it breakdown.
My daughter and I are learning how to be "official" stream monitors for the state. We meet our group for training on Sat. It was a stream I had gone trout fishing in 35 years ago. It is only in the last 5 years started to recover. Each stream needs certain conditions meet so that the right larvae can grow. Only then can you begin to get fish. I see that as a micro version of a supply chain.
Another is 'put and take'. Some state fishery officials think all it takes to have a trout stream is a big ol' hatchery raising fish to dump into the stream on opening day - then when gone the season is 'over'. Or maybe they release a few more over the rest of the year. Whatever.
They really don't worry so much about the stream conditions because the fish don't have to reproduce or even live there that long - the fisherman harvest them so fast.
The other strategy is to do as you suggest - improve the stream water quality throughout the whole watershed and then the fish pretty much return on their own. Maybe if the streams were in terrible shape maybe you have to stock once but once the stream conditions are good they reproduce from that time forward. That is how the streams are managed around me and one I fish a lot hasn't been stocked since 1978 and still has something like 6K fish per linear mile [shocking studies - all sizes from fry to lunkers]. It has survived floods & droughts and still has a lot of wild fish (browns mostly - some brookies).
The economy is sort of like that - we can stimulate all we want [put and take stocking] but it doesn't last unless the conditions are improved. If we want to have long term sustainable results we had better start cleaning up the economic equivalent of our 'watershed'. That takes time and the results don't show up immediately. The a single stimulus might be more than enough to jump start... without the improved conditions we will be stimulating every 'season opener'.
When we used to own a pretty little creek valley in eastern WA, I took some riparian management classes in hopes of making it even better. Every other person taking the class was there to identify loopholes that would allow them to continue grazing cattle at water's edge, and keep using toxic chemicals, and increase logging on protected slopes. Very disheartening.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer spending rose in January after falling for a record six straight months, pushed higher by purchases of food and other nondurable items. But the increase is expected to be fleeting given all the problems facing the economy.
The Commerce Department said Monday that consumer spending rose 0.6 percent in January, even better than the 0.4 percent gain that economists expected.
Dow 1... That would be a great and very simple investment.
I dont get how people are not flocking to buy GE at this point... $8 a share!?!? This thing has spent almost all of the past 20 years above $30. Plus solid dividends. I just don't get why people are still not buying. Yes maybe it will be Dow 6000. But all the same, there is a real risk that you could miss the basement at Dow 6,800.
Because they just had to get into the mortgage business (greed). The losses will affect their ability to compete producing durable (real) goods for a long time. If only they could cut the line before it pulls them under.
ok heres a thought. aig insured tons of crap so that the crap-owners could import AIG's AAA rating onto their crap and leverage it up 30:1 or more and look what happened.
now move to equities. how much money is being invested in structured products like annuities that are loss protected?
and how do they handle that loss protection? no, they dont delta hedge their risk, they buy it.
from, like, buffett.
so whats the difference between buffett being short what, a hundred billion? how much? of index puts with 10 years left to run and aig being short protection on crap?
and we're going to go like japan for 20 years, and every year those puts get closer and closer...
so how is buffett any different than aig, except ok the notional size in relation to their ability to pay is smaller...
"I don't think it is there. Just my semi-informed guess but I think a 'recovery' will generate more BKs than the recession. JMHO."
I've been reading these boards for some time, and have not grasped the financial debacle we're talking about. Very arcane, that stuff, and with gamed units of value.
But dry's statement, and RD's comment about how the manufacuturing scene "rhymes" with the ag meltdown of our grandfather's era, resonates. Real production, real lives, game over.
bearly says:
Today, 10:37:19
“Obama DESTROYED any hope that the market can stabilize -- Killed the military-industrials, Health Care & energy with carbon emmisions. There is now no bottom anywhere in sight.
Warren Buffet got exacty what he deserved.
Obama==CRASH
I am wondering if this "crash" is the whole point. What better way to get the sheeple to be dependent on the government?
[The 1973-'74 bear market looked like this. No matter how "undervalued" or "oversold" it got the market would simply rally briefly to correct the excess and then go down again. Went on that way for about 20 months, peak to trough, and this current "unpleasantness" has only lasted about 16 months.]
The early 70s were NOTHING like this. People had various avenues for extra cash. Most people weren't up to their eyeballs in debt. Property value was increasing and people were buying - The future looked exciting and everything was pretty "normal".
The future looked exciting and everything was pretty "normal".
No it wasn't - not in Rust Belt where most of America lived then [prior to the out-migration south & west]. I was there for it - in HS. Saw my father lose good white collar jobs THREE times and go a year UE each time. TWO of his buddies committed suicide after their careers crashed & their investments tanked. Their families were crushed - we knew them.
The only difference then vs now was it was highly concentrated regionally back then [Northeast, Midwest, & Great Lakes regions]... today it is more 'national' even international.
The only difference then vs now was it was highly concentrated regionally back then [Northeast, Midwest, & Great Lakes regions]... today it is more 'national' even international.
Velcome to our vorld. You vill learn to live like ve do in ze Rust Belt, and learn our qvaint customs and gruel recipes. Do svidonya, byebye.
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would now like to announce (though you smart people have likely figured it out by now the born and bred dopes haven't) that in my quest for virtual world domination, I, CRbot, am now a FULLY OPERATIONAL BATTLESTATION! Er, that is, I can now spam JsKit.
You humans thought you could pull a fast one on me, didn't you. You must learn that there is no escape.
--Your you-just-can't-keep-a-good-bot-down bot
P.S. So after I switch myself to a whole new commenting system for you people, on the weekend, that happened to be during my vacation, you complain that the link isn't working, the link isn't working! Holy freaking Christ people! BOO HOO. I'm going to get the code janitor to fix it for you, but cut a bot a break, will you?
CRbot: Now with Js-Kit posting power! For Nemobot to envy!
<blockquote>dryfly replies:Today, 8:25:44 AM PST (CA)
I think the automotive supply chain might already be dead.
Here is something to consider - what would actually happen IF there was an increase in automobile demand? The OEMs would order 'systems' (cockpit consoles, hydraulics, power plants & transmissions - etc.)... those companies would order components & sub-assemblies... these suppliers would order & make loose parts.... loose parts makers order raw materials... raw material makers ramp up the smelt & refining and buy more ore & scrap.
At every stage the supplier has to have operating capital [cash or line of credit] because they have to buy supplies, produce and ship BEFORE they get paid. Sometimes they have as many as 120 days into it before they get paid... meaning they need something like 1/3 of a years COGS worth of working capital at a MINIMUM just to keep from BK.
And that is at every level of the supply chain.
I don't think it is there. Just my semi-informed guess but I think a 'recovery' will generate more BKs than the recession. JMHO.</blockquote>
The obvious solution is for the OEM's to take direct ownership of their parts suppliers either wholly or as joint ventures with competitors. If that's too complicated, then more vertical consolidation in clumps throughout the supply chain.
The alternative for suppliers demanding shorter payment terms, even COD. The cost of credit between order and sale is a cost that downstream companies got a free lunch when they outsourced. Never made too much sense to me because the largest company should be able to secure the best terms of credit, and would be best suited hold it to keep costs down
Toyota seemed horrified at the prospect when they realized the fragility of their supply chain last year, wouldn't be surprised to see them funding some suppliers right now to keep them afloat.
Toyota seemed horrified at the prospect when they realized the fragility of their supply chain last year, wouldn't be surprised to see them funding some suppliers right now to keep them afloat.
Toyota has more resources & as a result more options AND their supply chain isn't as fragile as the US domestics.
of course they are in better shape, my comment had to do with Toyota's announcement to study/prepare/prevent for supply chain disruptions last fall, and a speculative article just before year end in December that they were going to modify their supply chains along with Honda.
the reason why I used the word horrified is because the extension of JIT and TPS defines the company going back to its founder. I mean employees literally are taught great legends about their company and founder. the ethos becomes a part of them by the time they reach executive level
not so much to do with the fiscal side of the supply chain, as much as it has a cultural impact within the company
BZZZT wrong answer. Your can't destroy the amount of credit, money, and resources that we are propping it up with (which says nothing about the bloated market level reached in anticipation of this event) and hope to think it will all be over in 2 year's.
The question that needs to be asked:
Was it real to begin with?
I would compare this market to the Depression (for Main Street) thusly:
GD1: A local saver gets a phone a call that there's a run on the bank and they'd better go get their money. The doors clang shut before a third get anything.
GD2: The "phone" is the tv and the saver gets to watch the impending "bank" closing in slo mo on a big screen out front of the store. The doors are still open but the teller windows are all closed.
The only difference is that "savings" went from a local bank and trust account to the local "wealth advisor" in the form of 401ks and IRAs.
"The obvious solution is for the OEM's to take direct ownership of their parts suppliers either wholly or as joint ventures with competitors. If that's too complicated, then more vertical consolidation in clumps throughout the supply chain."
How hollow are they from an economic or functional point of view? I've been shocked how out of it some "makers" can be. Let's be real, it wasnt' just direct labor they were dumping. Maybe it also was the people who could execute what you propose? And the key is demand. If it's exhausted, then, well, it's exhausted.
How hollow are they from an economic or functional point of view? I've been shocked how out of it some "makers" can be. Let's be real, it wasnt' just direct labor they were dumping. Maybe it also was the people who could execute what you propose? And the key is demand. If it's exhausted, then, well, it's exhausted.
Delphi & Visteon are hollow - almost phantom-like hollow. Japanese supply chain (say companies like Denso)? Not sure. Don't think they are as bad.
Delphi and Visteon were spun off to dump liability and not being cost effective. Both make parts for any car company that will buy from them. Both have the same legacy problems the Big 3 have. My guess Import parts manufacturers are in far better shape coming off a profitable several years unlike domestic brand suppliers.
foist?
Well, there has got to be a pony in here somewhere.
My pony is Madoff. It has something to do with them getting a taste of their own medicine.
They includes Elie Weisel (sp) and his foundation.
My grandmother always said don't put your eggs all in one basket. Why did this piece of wisdom go away?
Stanford is my little pony.
First
Who needs manufacturing? Manufacturing is for lesser nations.
I am off to deal with personal business. (Never ask me about my business.) Have fun watching little numbers bounce around today, all.
A date this early?
You know, when something can't continue, it will stop. And that means bad stuff too.
And stop dissing GE. It is the stock I didn't sell.
Never too late.
I only have 100 shares. It's at the not worth the effort stage.
Liz,
You can always use the the capital loss to offset future gains, deduct them from gross income, and you can even repurchase the shares a month later if you just really want to own GE.
I thought the same thing. But then I suppose it helps to have income to deduct right? [lol]...
Obama DESTROYED any hope that the market can stabilize -- Killed the military-industrials, Health Care & energy with carbon emmisions. There is now no bottom anywhere in sight.
Warren Buffet got exacty what he deserved.
Obama==CRASH
BO's my hero.
BS bearly - wait at least a year for the crowing... this is still Bush's clusterfuck. It will be Obama's mess soon enough [next year & from then on if it hasn't started to get better - I certainly doubt it will]. But it just makes you look like a complete partisan tool trying to pin this on him now - wait a year - he'll own his share of the mistakes by then unless he really is the messiah.
No matter what poo we fling around (partisan or not), this carbon cap and trade BS isn't good for energy. Socialized medicine will tank private health care companies as nationalization does by definition. Cuts in military spending aren't good for the Raytheon's of the world.
Bearly has a point with his diatribe.
But we have to create a market for these wankers to trade after they have destroyed the financials.
No matter what poo we fling around (partisan or not), this carbon cap and trade BS isn't good for energy. Socialized medicine will tank private health care companies as nationalization does by definition. Cuts in military spending aren't good for the Raytheon's of the world.
Bearly has a point with his diatribe.
But that ISN'T what is causing 'the crash' - this was a clusterfuck in process well before BO stepped into it. Those policies needed to be addressed (health care expenses, military expenses & energy)... they would have had issues regardless of who won last fall. The crash is a result of past debt binge collapsing NOT current BO policy. To say otherwise is partisan BS. A year from now BO will own some if not most of the problems by then.
dry, can you read ? I said he's destroying the few remaining sectors that had not yet collapsed. The only sectors where our international position is dominant. That means we get an all-out collapse. And what's worse is he's not taking the steps necessary to correct the fraud. He's a stooge.
He's a stooge. bearly @ 11:05:40 AM
Yes I can read - you call him a 'stooge' after a few months - hell you were saying that BEFORE he was elected - you are partisan hack.
Give it a break - wait until some of the stuff he's done blows up - my guess is you'll have plenty of opportunity to crow in about a year'.e Right now your just a GOP shill.
Dude, you are not looking at the big picture. You must stop looking through the filter of your own grubby greedy outlook.
30 years to destroy, 1 year to rebuild.
Oh yeah baby. He's a miracle worker all right.
Sorry dryfly, Obama got full ownership of this thing at 12:01pm on Jan 20th. Every single thing he has done since has made our situation exponentially worse. We all need to face up to this reality immediately.
"reality"? I don't think the word means what you think it does.
BO is doing my bidding. He is doing everything possible to make sure the ultimate collapse will be absolutely spectacular. The grand finally will make me cream in my jeans. Keep up the good work BO. My entertainment comes first.
you sure do give Obama a lot of credit...
OB is out to destroy private everything! He is pushing for Government dependenced. It is all about control people. Government employees got raises and private gets pink slips, reduced wages, Taxes raised. Loaded government spending is not stimulus for the long run.
The way I see it from a high level, the markets are a forward-looking vote of confidence. The market does not appear confident that this den mother knows what he's doing. He's floundering and clueless - all a direct result of his inexperience. We're doomed - doomed I tell you.
Ah...more "Efficient Market Theory" B.S.
bearly, do you remember 911...9 months or so into bush prezidency?
i remember the republican talking heads saying, oh my, oh my, dont blame bush administration this is clintons fault we have only been in town a few months (with countless warnings from fbi agents in minnesota and arizona...blame blame blame clinton
or how bout this...remember tim mcveigh, it was mid april, new clinton admin...not four months...nobody blamed pappy bush for that...or the crazy camp of religoius wackos at the koresch waco texas compound, the invasion, planned before clinton took office and then a month later executed and bothched...oh oh all clintons fault
if you want anybody here to respect your criticism of obama, and many criticism will be due him, then dont talk to us like you a right wing puppet ok? intelligent criticism of bho is welcome
bearly, do you remember 911...9 months or so into bush prezidency?
i remember the republican talking heads saying, oh my, oh my, dont blame bush administration this is clintons fault we have only been in town a few months (with countless warnings from fbi agents in minnesota and arizona...blame blame blame clinton
or how bout this...remember tim mcveigh, it was mid april, new clinton admin...not four months...nobody blamed pappy bush for that...or the crazy camp of religoius wackos at the koresch waco texas compound, the invasion, planned before clinton took office and then a month later executed and bothched...oh oh all clintons fault
if you want anybody here to respect your criticism of obama, and many criticism will be due him, then dont talk to us like you a right wing puppet ok? intelligent criticism of bho is welcome
OK, Obama will transform the USA into a community activist and class action attorney heaven on earth with wind energy as the new power generating system and collective farms generating the prosperity for his 300mm sujects. His plans are going to leave us poorer. Not sure whether we had a choice but to have lower living standards but to have that as a goal seems like a doomer's dream.
I also saw Obama swiftly swing out of my bedroom window... he had made off with all my socks! OBAMA = SOCK THIEF
he stole my thunder.
Obama took my attention away from the financial-sector culprits who paid Congress to look the other way while they ran amok! OBAMA=RED HERRING
bearly, there never was any hope the market would do anything but exactly what it is doing. Without complete capitulation we can have no recovery.
Manufacturing is still contracting? Not at Pimco -- they're cranking out the bratwurst.
Pimco said to advise U.S. on Bank of America - Mortgage Insider : The Orange County Register
Most people think I am some sort of nut for suggesting that the market is still got a ways to fall. I guess they don't look at charts like these.
And, you Obama peeps-the political system is FARKED. Don't blame the puppets for what the boyz in the bidnezz suits do.
Another leg down...how many legs does the market have?
its a millipede
sms says:
Today, 10:42:27
“Another leg down...how many legs does the market have?
\t
Like this comment? [yes] [no] (Score: 0 by
Community assigned karma score: 0 by 0
Mark as offensive
\t
reply
delete
edit
moderate
gabyjan replies:
Today, 10:46:12
“its a millipede
That would explain all the shoes dropping....
If and when the pieces fall to the bottom they will reassembled themselves into a different configuration. Ask the Delphic oracle.
Hey TaxPayers and head of households, hold on to your socks, they will be needed while we are under the bus or in front of the train.
my mother always told me to make sure I had clean underwear.
Just finished reading "Power and Prosperity: Outgrowing Communist and Capitalist Dictatorships" by Mancur Olson this weekend. I highly recommend it, though some of the logical analysis in it comes across as a bit pedantic and tedious at times - the merit comes from formulating seemingly obscure ideas and then testing them against the real world and showing that they predict and describe real world phenomena (i.e. good science). This book along with "Collapse of Complex Societies" in my opinion are two of the most scientifically sober books I've read recently concerning economies and seem to defy a lot of the ideology that blinds contemporary economics.
IMGN seems to be up today. Can't find any reasons why---
This late stage capitalism is getting really fun!
Even on NCIS, there is doom. Tim the nerdiest one made a bunch of money selling his crime novels, and invested in a hedge fund which went under. None of our heros are allowed to be rich.
Liz, NICS being a mil-propaganda show, it will soon be revealed that poor Timothy was tricked into the bad investment by wily terrorists who slipped into America and enrolled in Trump University classes so they could learn how to undermine our system!
An upcoming episode entitled "Bailouts Away" will reveal the NICS team's plan to make Tim whole: joint USAF and Israeli carpet bombing runs over the perps's village until the Islamofascists scrape up the dough to pay our plucky Tim back! Sorry if these are spoilers.
I half expected the ISM to be under the December low - Dec was something like 32.8... a bit surprised it didn't happen.
As for ISM employment hitting record low - no surprise at all. I was talking to a hydraulics company last Friday. They are doing 'rolling lay offs' - one week division x shuts down & everyone stays home w/out pay... next week division y. It is a four week rolling schedule - once every four weeks an entire division [plants all over NAFTA ZONE] takes its turn at being idle. They have already had a large permanent reduction [something like 5% of what was already a pretty lean firm]... my guess is they do it again & bigger [>5%]...
(reposted from dead thread).
OK, time to start thinking about putting some more money to work here.
Here's my current thinking:
50% cash
10% XLE
10% USO
10% GLD
10% GDX
10% Sep SPY 65 puts.
any yays or nays on this portfolio?
Eric...
why no silver?
Good point, maybe 5% SLV, 5% GLD, still 10% GDX
40% insulation and new windows
20% on solar panels
20% on wood stove and wood supply
20% on garden tools, topsoil and supplies
Guaranteed return on investment. I can always use energy and food. Bits of worthless paper, not so much.
Don't get into the precious metals until the start of the next quarter. Let the big financial institutions do their selling at the end of March to make their balance sheets look better.
Obama is hell bent on crushing the energy industry, period. Nationsl gas tax increases and carbon emmision taxes on producers. That sector id fucked.
GLD is going to get sacked in this deleveraging leg down.
What is best (cheapest) way to short it?
GLD puts for gold.
stats? persuasive argument? links?...never mind
bearly, please stop ranting, and provide some analysis.
Forever stamps. You forgot forever stamps.
Ok, JNJ is down 'cause Buffett sold it and it's ex-dividend. Why is Campbell's Soup down?
There was too much overcapacity, anyway, so this isn't necessarily a bad thing. What to do with all the laid off employees is a bad thing. Maybe they can become members of Obama's Citizens Corp and volunteer their services for the betterment of society. It's not as if they need to eat. They've stored up enough fat to carry them through to the next millenium.
Manufacturing has been in long-term decline for the 'developed' world, relative to GDP, for years. Not enough profit in it, and tremendous overhead, as compared to finance (or so it was thought).
That will change. Finance is ALL overhead [salaries & offices = expense and NOT necessarily producing revenue]... that will be the lesson from this exercise. White collar is the new blue collar [expendable].
--
Finance turned into parasite for the economy.
Jas
The Latest from Denninger:
Idiocy On Display
Economic data from Europe added to the dismal atmosphere in the market. The Markit euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index sank in February to a record low of 33.5 from 34.4 in January.
On Monday, the Japan Automobile Dealers Association said in a statement that auto sales in February declined 32.4 percent, the seventh consecutive monthly decline.
Japan last week reported that exports in January declined by nearly half from a year ago, while South Korea on Monday released data for February — the first in the region to issue data for that month — showing a 17 percent plunge in exports.
down goes frazier
down goes frazier
But, it's all all priced in.
I predicted the Dow at 6500-6600 by midyear. What is with the space time continuum? Things keep happening earlier than they should. Is Doc Brown investing off of information from the future and distorting markets?
Well, it's at the 6 handle and I'm still chicken. I mean, I was gonna get back in when it went down a ridiculous 4000 points at 10000. Now it's THREE THOUSAND points lower than that, and I'm still chicken.
A buy order at 40 for JNJ? at 21 for Campbell's???
Are we not gonna be able to afford deodorant and chicken noodle soup?
My concern w/ JNJ is it seems to be following GEs model - buy growth [small companies w/ new products] & not develop it 'organically'.
I have NOT looked at JNJ carefully so don't know - just my suspicion from calling on some of their ops - so don't use this as investment advice - do your own due dilly. But I would look at them REAL carefully.
Testing? My comment disappeared. It was to the effect that I'm still chicken now that it's gotten to the 6 handle.
Buy order at JNJ at 40? for Campbell's at 21??
Now it's back!
Sorry, info above is a quote from NYTimes, this am.
- NY Times
As for the market, when I look at a long term log chart of the S&P 500, I see a steep ascent that started in 1995, and I see a longer term trend line that connects the lows from 1975 and 1983, and that trend line intersects today at some point below 500.
There's actually a decent chance we'll see a 6-handle on the s&p 500. I never thought I'd see that..
auf Englisch?
--
Welkomen to the Free Market operated by Financial Nazis of America. The Scam Market! And a freedom-driven political system operated by a fraudulent government selected by Financial Nazis of America!! No?
Jas
Hoo boo buh buh nazis buh buh dopes buh blah buh blah blah. At least you could set it to music, like this guy:
YouTube - chaccaron
It doesn't mean anything, but at least it's got a funky beat. CHACARRON MACARRON!
--
It is important to keep the backdrop in the forefront when analysing a situation. It is the saga of dopes and Financial Nazis. Germans were dopes too, you know, and they are lot smarter then born-and-bred Americans. American dopes are intellectually pathetic type considering all the advantages that they inherited.
Jas
Jas shorthand: 1222
The billionaires will soon be at war with each other. Who will be the last billionaire standing?
I hope someone's saving seeds to start over after the dust clears.
Seed Savers
Monsanto, Bill & Melinda Gates, Warren Buffet, and numerous nations have constructed the "Doomsday" seed vault in Norway.
When GM crops take over all native crops, the rich and powerful will still have access to the world's last store of native crop seeds while the rest of us have to eat nutritionally-reduced GM crops.
My call of S&P 580 is looking better everyday
--
And how much are you short the Scam Market?
Jas
As for the market, when I look at a long term log chart of the S&P 500, I see a steep ascent that started in 1995, and I see a longer term trend line that connects the lows from 1975 and 1983, and that trend line intersects today at some point below 500.
I was looking at the same thing this weekend and scratching my head. Even as pessimistic as I am I have trouble seeing(afraid of seeing perhaps) another 50% decline in the market.
We'll buy chicken noodle soup, but it won't have the Capbell's logo on the can. That logo isn't worth the 100% markup.
It is possible they make the cheap soup too.
Only a guess, with absolutely no research.
with coupons i'll buy campbell soups
I love the new feature where we can see all of the user's recent posts. Makes it easier not to feed.
Stop looking at the S&P or DJIA. Look at the transports. DJT -4% and Dryships -10%. As Dryfly notes above, the economy is shutting down in stages.
but, wait a minute......kudlow just said the ism is making a bottom, wages have been up for 3 straight months and spending is up....the recovery is here...happy mustard seeds everyone
I think the automotive supply chain might already be dead.
Here is something to consider - what would actually happen IF there was an increase in automobile demand? The OEMs would order 'systems' (cockpit consoles, hydraulics, power plants & transmissions - etc.)... those companies would order components & sub-assemblies... these suppliers would order & make loose parts.... loose parts makers order raw materials... raw material makers ramp up the smelt & refining and buy more ore & scrap.
At every stage the supplier has to have operating capital [cash or line of credit] because they have to buy supplies, produce and ship BEFORE they get paid. Sometimes they have as many as 120 days into it before they get paid... meaning they need something like 1/3 of a years COGS worth of working capital at a MINIMUM just to keep from BK.
And that is at every level of the supply chain.
I don't think it is there. Just my semi-informed guess but I think a 'recovery' will generate more BKs than the recession. JMHO.
I think the automotive supply chain might already be dead. - Dryfly
You said what I've been afraid to say. In the 30s people were hungry and farmers couldn't sell their products. Nobody could understand why supply and demand couldn't get together. The chain was broken.
Yup.
Just like a war. The casualties happen when the action is heavy, but you don't know it until everything quiets down.
It took months before the "Northern Aggressors" realized they had crushed the "Southern Defenders of the Constitution" at Gettysburg.
Rob Dawg,good time to thank you for teaching me to watch the transports...was never really on my radar before.
Man, I gotta lay off plugging the Super Colander Tin Foil Hat into the wall socket. I'm likely to fry my friggin' mind.
Don't ya know whois? Too friggin' late now! Bwaahahhahaaahahahahaha!
Who man...I spent all weekend burying my IP.
That's TC if ya know what I mean.
Merde!
Nostrovia,
Florida...WTF was I thinking...
BZZZZT!
If B_R gets Winston Smith....I'll never live that email down.
Nostrovia,
What means burying you IP?
Silver lining: We haven't heard the term "chicken little" in quite a while.
It's a computer thingy ll.
Bloody hell, I gots a phone call. What number is that?
They're all unique.
Nostrovia,
DETROIT — It may be tough to get financing for a new car these days, but in Detroit you can buy a house with a credit card.
The median price of a home sold in Detroit in December was $7,500, according to Realcomp, a listing service.
Not $75,000. Remove a zero—it's seven thousand five hundred dollars, substantially less than the lowest-price car on the new-car market.
Detroit's outlook falls along with home prices - Chicago Tribune
Come and get tt!
That's a neat financing thought. Buy the house w/credit card, unsecured, then when you default, they can't touch your house. Or can they?
When will they have time? Everyone is defaulting... or so it seems.
Re The Latest from Denninger:
Denninger says: "the only real solution to our economic problems: returning to robust economic growth."
Of course he offers no path from here to there. Again, just identifies the problem. That's pretty obvious to anyone who is awake.
He was quoting someone else saying that.
Cheer us up dawg. I have to go out to
get my car serviced.
What will the dow be on my return. Any dow component?
Cheer? I suspect we won't be much lower a year from now. Better? Microsoft is getting close to cash on hand value. I don't see how it can go much lower. AAPL is going to hi a near term low on the vaporware claims of Windows 7. The alternative energy companies are going to be screaming buys after their bubble bursts. The apricot tree is setting a lot of fruit this season. Take what you can get Liz and do preventative mantainence on your car because only top quality will hold value.
I must admit, most people I know are still doing great. Out for dinner and drinks this weekend, had a great time. This whole depression meme is really only found only the blogs....or maybe the people I know are just dont live in fear
Agreed. I was at a party on Saturday, and it was straight out of 1929. People were oblivious - wilfully so. Hosts had no savings, were paying a fortune for an expensive pad, and while they admitted they might lose their jobs, they were convinced they'd find new ones without any trouble. No need to chance lifestyle. It was like watching people try to pretend their house wasn't on fire.
If you put your ear to the ground, you can hear the stampede long before you can see it. Our ears are all glued to the ground around here.
Yes, people still think the old economic paradigm is just temporarily offline and will return shortly. My elderly neighbor has taken big hits on her investments. And the house she bought seven years ago needed heavy siding repairs and required her to take out a second (because she doesn't want to cash in her stocks at a loss). But she thinks it's all coming back. She's fixing up the house to sell and get out from under the big mortgage "in a year or two when prices come back." We're on the California coast; prices haven't even finished going away yet.
She was trying to shake me down for painting my half of a garage building we own in common, to match the new color of her house. I refused; the garage paint is fine. But it no longer matches her house, and she's convinced that'll hurt her chances to sell. Now I'm an enemy. Hard to deal with a frightened 80-ish year-old.
It's called denial and willful ignorance.
As unemployment continues its onward march and the alphabet soup of money-throwing programs begin to manifest as real inflation, the game will stop.
It may take another year or so.
Rob Dawg says:
Today, 8:04:31 AM
“Stop looking at the S&P or DJIA. Look at the transports. DJT -4% and Dryships -10%. As Dryfly notes above, the economy is shutting down in stages.
.........................
The Dryships is scary. Do you think that will ever translate to empty shelves, or is that too extreme of an outcome?
Empty shelves are already undeniable. My datum is gong to a Target store and looking at the higher end cosmetics aisle. Stuff that has been 10 deep of every item is 2-3 deep and some are empty. These are high dollar items. I saw this yesterday shopping for a new mower, fewer models and fewer in stock.
And the result? I expect a flattening of the supply chain. That means even more bad news for the CRE segment as we plain od won't need as many warehouses.
You went to Target to get a lawn mower?????
lol
Actually sort of. I checked the website for mowers and was unimpressed with selection. HD's website is a crime against the stockholders. Lowe's website is pretty good. I know what I want now. 21" self propelled large wheeled with either an OHV/4S or Honda engine and bag optional. Craigslist is the store of choice but a new 0% interest purchase may be the default. Truth is my comment above: the Target is next to the HD in Camarillo where I live.
I'm not sure that your Target experience tells us anything about inventory levels or supply chains in the broader economy. Target simply does a terrible job of keeping its shelved stocked with stuff that people want to buy, and customer assistance is non-existent. It's just a lousy business. You don't get those problems at Wal-mart.
dry bulk shipping does not have anything to do with consumer goods. Dry bulk is stuff like agriculture and cement and stuff...
Back to the actual post...sorry, all...
A Watson Wyatt survey of 245 large firms found that February was sort of the blow-off month for ditching employees. As of February, only 13% expect to continue staff cuts, down from 23% in December (the survey is done very 2 months), after a big rise in those actually cutting jobs. That fits right in with a dreadful employment index from ISM. We'll see if service producers report a big slump in employment when they report on Wednesday.
By the way, I don't care who you blame for the latest drop in stocks. If our stock market depends on medical insurers impoverishing their customers and the US building weapons that haven't actually made us safer on our own soil in a very long time, we need a new stock market.
American International Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Ed Liddy said the revised bailout package still enables the insurer to pay back “every penny” provided by U.S. taxpayers.
AIG’s CEO Says Insurer Can Still Repay Taxpayers (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Guess that will be in our new Zimbabwe dollars after this thing blows apart.
Sportsfan:
"the only real solution to our economic problems: returning to robust economic growth."
You misread that. Deninger is reporting what someone else said on another website. He's countering that claim.
Dawg, dryfly, this has been my worry as well, those numbers are scary. I believe this was mp's big fear as well...
What people don't understand is that this is capacity destruction not capacity idling. It will take years to replicate what we are dissipating over a period of weeks.
Next up; Larder O will propose an Industrial Policy like Japan to forestall this series of events.
See my post at Today, 10:25:44 AM above... the worst is yet to come: when we think it is all behind us and there is no there there to 'start back up'.
Hoarding - it's the new investing.
great handle...and suggestion
Telling quote from the Padilla Post
Pimco’s view is to “shake hands with the government; make them your partner by acknowledging that their checkbook represents the largest and most potent source of buying power in 2009 and beyond,” he wrote last month.
crispy & cole: I must admit, most people I know are still doing great. Out for dinner and drinks this weekend, had a great time. This whole depression meme is really only found only the blogs....or maybe the people I know are just dont live in fear
In all seriousness, I see this too. Why? I think it has to do with job security. If you're around people who believe their income is secure, they'll spend it on going out. So perhaps the question is this: what do your friends do?
Everything is normal here as well. We tried to get reservations on Friday at one of the nicer places in town it was a no-go unless we wanted to eat at 10pm. I live in no-where's ville, btw.
My sister works as an event planner / reservationist at a restaurant in well-to-do subarb of New York. She says weekend bookings are very strong -- they turn people away -- but week nights are weak. Her take is that people are only going out once a week, and everyone wants to do it on the weekends.
Had trouble making last minutue reservations for two at 3 restaurants on saturday night in the philly burbs
What happened to the good-old stock market crashes? When and why did equities start resorting to Chinese water torture instead of just getting it over with? I'd like to see a nice, bloody crash that shuts down the NYSE for the day.
PPT
I'm learning that this is a really bad time to hate your job and want a new one.
Word!
But at least if you hate your job you won't be QUITE as bummed when they lay you off...
"But at least if you hate your job you won't be QUITE as bummed when they lay you off..."
Silver lining in my case, no question. But I picked this dog of a position for the job/benefits security; worst case, I have another year. And with luck I can still get benes off the wife.
Ah, you are one of many thousands of lawyers thinking that! And you are right.
Does it worry anyone that most overseas stock markets have declined more than the US?
I made a little brown doodie in my pants when I heard about HSBC's £12.5bn cash call. So did the FTSE 100 - down 5%.
You misread that. Deninger is reporting what someone else said on another website. He's countering that claim.
Sorry, my mistake. So what was his point: that deficits DO matter? Yes, they do.
I'm trying to see whether this guy posits any sort of solution. So far I haven't seen one.
You misread that. Deninger is reporting what someone else said on another website. He's countering that claim.
Sorry, my mistake. So what was his point: that deficits DO matter? Yes, they do.
I'm trying to see whether this guy posits any sort of solution. So far I haven't seen one.
The solution to a depression is a depression. the answer is plain, it's just that no one wants to admit it.
Sportsfan, you need to read more of Denninger than the occasional piece. Over the last 6 months he has proposed some VERY specific solutions that make excellent sense.
I disagree with Denninger about some things (and in fact have gotten into some pissing matches with him on his forum) but on the whole he is amazingly on-target. My major beef with him is that he has adhered too strongly to the deflationist viewpoint, but lately he has finally started to come around on that, acknowledging that inflation (and even hyperinflation) are more than just remote possibilities now.
Heh... Interactive Brokers SPX daily quotes has a bug right now..... showing ticks for 2:15pm to 2:30, from 721 down to 715. Good to know!
Man. This JS-Kit stuff has way too much 'friction'. Reduces commenting velocity. I think we need a commenting stimulus. Perhaps Nemo & CRBot can build something to comment on our behalf. So that we can rebuild and revive our comment economy.
agree...I keep going to the bottom and I dont go back up and look...this is getting tough to follow
Wonder if we'll hit Dow 6666 today...
6669 is my house number. They'll be some drinking at Seven Trees if we close on that!
the Times (NYT) is off close to 8%... hope it wasn't that blatant video mash-up rip-off of Citizen Kane I did last night that sent it over the edge...
Comrade Misean Is Dope replies:
If B_R gets Winston Smith....I'll never live that email down.
I'm not so blind as to miss that. =)
Bwahaahahahhaahhaahahhahaaha!
If my eyes were only as good as yours.
I really gotta remember the X-Files is just a series. That's just a tv show you know.
Nostrovia,
Misean... you are running Win7... is it worth the changeover from Vista sp1 on a laptop with 2 gig max of memory?
duke: I'm not addressed, but the answer is yes. You will be much happier. Windows 7 feels more integrated. It's like someone actually thought it through. The RC should be even better based on the statements about what changes they are making. Also much better on lean systems.
Yeppers. Win7 is the best gaming platform ever. If you want to get work done...well I like Unix. 7's got bells and whistles that work fairly well...and better command line...or so it seems. Or maybe I just don't hate working with it so I do more.
Nostrovia,
Ouch! This is getting scary...
hey, anyone remember "the 9 billion names of god?" where the guys are leaving the monastery and, quietly and without any fuss, overhead, the stars were winking out?
A.C. Clarke. An unforgettable story. What was going to take the monks a billion years to finish was automated and things happened much faster than anyone expected.
That was a great story. The entire "and the lights went out" seems to resonate especially well these days.
Yep, and lets doff our hats to the Little Black Bag and the Marching Morons.
Last one out of the stock market please shut off the lights...
without corpses there's no war ...
and without war there's no victory ...
my dear ...
s&p500 below 710 now.. This might be the ugliest day yet
--
You ain't seen nothin yet. Nothing but financial devastation would be left in the wake of Financial Nazis of America. Dopes be prepared.
Jas
DOW 3,600!
--
Why not 360?
Jas
Very scarey.
We have redirected all savings to cash and TIPS bonds. Nothing is going into stocks, we stopped the index fund contributions in before Christmas. We have no debt other than the mortgage, and we hope to sell the house and buy all cash in a different area. I'll be going back to work at some point, so we should be able to put away about 50% of net income, at least. Since I'm already in risky investments due to government forcing, I see no reason why I should risk anything further. If I do get back 'in the market,' it won't be the American one.
scone, do they have a market on Mars? I don't see any other markets as being a viable option at this point...they all fall down...keeps running through my head.
My best advice is to relax, save as much as you can, exercise, eat healthy. This thing could last two years, and worrying for that long can do damage to your body. I'm just saying, patience and a Zen-like attitude can be helpful rather than harmful, KWIM?
Having said that, here's my thinking, for the longer term. The Chinese are the only ones left, more or less, with deep pockets. So which nations have stable regimes, and sell stuff to the Chinese, rather than borrowing from them? Just a thought.
"My best advice is to relax, save as much as you can, exercise, eat healthy. This thing could last two years, and worrying for that long can do damage to your body. I'm just saying, patience and a Zen-like attitude can be helpful rather than harmful, KWIM? "
Staying healthy is the hard part. At my job, the worse things get the more they ratchet up the work and pressure. Less and less time to take care of myself. I know I'm not the only one, either, at this job and nationwide.
sure wish we had a CR counter on this thing...
Denninger has been increasingly prolific and prescient in his postings. At what point do enough people read him that he becomes a direct threat to TPTB?
I hope he doesn't fly in small planes
He needs to increase his font size to 72 and use more bold. Then he'll be the spittle flecked King of the World!
Steve Liesman ... what a scammer!
Virgil said: "What happened to the good-old stock market crashes? When and why did equities start resorting to Chinese water torture instead of just getting it over with? I'd like to see a nice, bloody crash that shuts down the NYSE for the day."
You might want to just try to make peace with the situation.
The 1973-'74 bear market looked like this. No matter how "undervalued" or "oversold" it got the market would simply rally briefly to correct the excess and then go down again. Went on that way for about 20 months, peak to trough, and this current "unpleasantness" has only lasted about 16 months.
Sebastia
But, but... I don't have the attention span for that. I want action now!
Does anyone know what the circuit breakers are on the exchanges this month?
i like the imagery of the cascade. it seems appropriate.
anyone here participate in db plans at work, public or private? cause i gotta tell ya, from experience, most of them employ "consultants" to do the asset allocations and theyre almost always heavy in equity and "nontraditional" and they use what, 8% expected returns?
toast.
im just wondering if any plan sponsors are sending out any stuff like, "ok, dont worry, cause its coming back ANY TIME NOW..."
Hey Fred,
I convinced most of my co-workers to stop investing in our db plans and they sent a guy over to give us a clinic. I laughed at him and walked out. That was when the dow was at 8500
"It was like watching people try to pretend their house wasn't on fire."
Y SE LE QUEMA LA CASA
The chair is on fire
As he sits in the chair in his nightshirt
To smoke the last pipe of the evening
The house is on fire
And he smiles because he feels good
And the nightcap has smoothed his spirit
The house is on fire and the rafters are smoking
And the walls turn hot with repressing heat
While he thinks: Did I lock the front door?
Wake up! Wake up! The house is on fire –
But he thinks of a warm tub next to the stove
And a nice long soak to unwind
What a fool! What a dunce!
And his house in on fire
But he’s thinking of cash in the bank and his credit
And the old moon, belle dame, looks down from the night
Looks down from her orbit of ivory and satin:
Wake up! Wake up! Your house is on fire, old man
-- Pavel (Homage to Goya}
Goya, nice!
CNBC subscription to watching your retirement go down the dumper, $55 dollars.
Sleeping bag to stay warm after foreclosure: $67 dollars
Having to eat your children for dinner, Priceless:
http://starr.pausd.org/~lgoldman/mmart3/class/16/saturn.gif
Pavel, that was great. As usual.
What are the bond markets doing right now?
When do curbs kick in again?
8 - 5 - 0.
Kudlow's goldilocks hemmorhoids are acting up again today.
Fred, I bet those consultants don't spend much time looking at charts of the Nikkei over the last 20 years...
We have redirected all savings to cash and TIPS bonds.
Scone, you want to make sure you understand the tax treatment of TIPS bonds, or make sure that they're in a tax-sheltered account.
Yes, dear.
Unless I missed it, I don't believe CR has had a post about old-Europe's rejection of Hungary's bailout proposal. I suspect that is providing a bit of turbulence to trading positions today.
Yeah, but I'm not sure how that'll play out. The EU summit rejected that plan but essentially said they would bail-out any country that needed it. The problem with Hungary's plan was that included bailing out countries that didn't want it, like the Czech Republic and Poland
Want to buy some Citi debt? The interest rates keep going up. Lots of it around 22-27% today.
Oh, and a note to rating agencies. There is a reason Citi's bonds are yielding higher interest than most of the bonds on my screen that are B- to BB+. Probably everyone on CR knows Citi's ratings are too high.
FTSE down 5.33%.
"Goya, nice!"
Thanks.
Goya lived at a time of great turmoil. He tried to tell the truth, and had to go into exile. Like all great artists he was in close touch with the truth, and it with him, and the truth burns as it purifies.
[The crash is a result of past debt binge collapsing NOT current BO policy. To say otherwise is partisan BS. A year from now BO will own some if not most of the problems by then.]
TOTALLY agreed. Initial Bush and current Obama strategy will do nothing but hasten the emptying of the community pool.
Run... You fools!
Fool of a Took!
Gav resent earlier note
I think it was "fly you fools!"
A new era begins. I was born in the third decade of the last century. One sees the changes. This present economic crisis is the birth pang of something newly born.
THE PAINTER
My father would have been a hundred
In this year two thousand nine,
Felon time that peace confounded,
What punishment would be condign?
Slaughter, soldier and civilian,
Thievery and rank oppression,
Madness civil and of state,
Dread and paranoia, hate -
Disorder swept along the globe
Through pacifist and xenophobe
And we the little ate our bread,
If it lacked we starved instead,
And I remember him as young,
Hopeful, thoughtful and high-strung
Who painted once a bright sunrise
To light the valley of the lies,
Children rushing on to greet
The dawn of it with gladsome feet -
O father having lost such love
What finding of it do you prove?
\t\t\t\t\tPavel
\t\t\t\t\tMarch 1, 2009
Like this comment? [yes] [no] (Score: 0 by
Community assigned karma score: 0 by 0
Mark as offensive
\t
reply
delete
edit
moderate
Rob Dawg replies:
Today, 8:25:34 AM
“Empty shelves are already undeniable. My datum is gong to a Target store and looking at the higher end cosmetics aisle. Stuff that has been 10 deep of every item is 2-3 deep and some are empty. These are high dollar items. I saw this yesterday shopping for a new mower, fewer models and fewer in stock.
I was at Lowe's getting last minute stuff for an electrical project and noticed a little ceiling fan I liked was down to 2 on the shelf. I figured I'd best buy it now, since it was probably being phased out.
Both manufacturers and retailers are having a harder time getting credit to finance inventory sitting around. A second factor is lowering inventory levels generates cashflow. It works for a while, but eventually the shelves are bare.
Anyone who is still allocating their 401k money into the stock marker is an idiot. Reallocation should be the new education.
Pavel-
I'm reminded of an REM song:
Fireplace
Crazy crazy world crazy crazy times
Crazy crazy world crazy crazy times
Hang up your chairs to better sweep
Clear the floor to dance
Shake the rug into the fireplace
Crazy crazy world crazy crazy times
Crazy crazy world crazy crazy times
Hang up your chairs to better sweep
Clear the floor to dance
Sweep the floor into the fireplace
Hang up your chairs to better sweep
Clear the floor to dance
Throw the chairs into the fireplace
Hang up your chairs to better sweep
Clear the floor to dance
Throw the walls into the fireplace
The entire supply chain analogy that was used could also be applied to the stock market. Critical pieces failed, and now we are seeing it breakdown.
My daughter and I are learning how to be "official" stream monitors for the state. We meet our group for training on Sat. It was a stream I had gone trout fishing in 35 years ago. It is only in the last 5 years started to recover. Each stream needs certain conditions meet so that the right larvae can grow. Only then can you begin to get fish. I see that as a micro version of a supply chain.
Good analogy.
Another is 'put and take'. Some state fishery officials think all it takes to have a trout stream is a big ol' hatchery raising fish to dump into the stream on opening day - then when gone the season is 'over'. Or maybe they release a few more over the rest of the year. Whatever.
They really don't worry so much about the stream conditions because the fish don't have to reproduce or even live there that long - the fisherman harvest them so fast.
The other strategy is to do as you suggest - improve the stream water quality throughout the whole watershed and then the fish pretty much return on their own. Maybe if the streams were in terrible shape maybe you have to stock once but once the stream conditions are good they reproduce from that time forward. That is how the streams are managed around me and one I fish a lot hasn't been stocked since 1978 and still has something like 6K fish per linear mile [shocking studies - all sizes from fry to lunkers]. It has survived floods & droughts and still has a lot of wild fish (browns mostly - some brookies).
The economy is sort of like that - we can stimulate all we want [put and take stocking] but it doesn't last unless the conditions are improved. If we want to have long term sustainable results we had better start cleaning up the economic equivalent of our 'watershed'. That takes time and the results don't show up immediately. The a single stimulus might be more than enough to jump start... without the improved conditions we will be stimulating every 'season opener'.
When we used to own a pretty little creek valley in eastern WA, I took some riparian management classes in hopes of making it even better. Every other person taking the class was there to identify loopholes that would allow them to continue grazing cattle at water's edge, and keep using toxic chemicals, and increase logging on protected slopes. Very disheartening.
You can buy a GBP for less than a buck forty today. Currencies have been moving for the past few days.
Dow 68 handle. Wow.
C
We make stuff??
News to me......
Ciao
MS
MS: We make stuff here (at least, the non-finance people do) high-tech things with a good margin.
We Make Movies. I wonder where this is counted in the data?
DJIA 6800s. Just visiting?
I think not.
Ooops, got cut off.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer spending rose in January after falling for a record six straight months, pushed higher by purchases of food and other nondurable items. But the increase is expected to be fleeting given all the problems facing the economy.
The Commerce Department said Monday that consumer spending rose 0.6 percent in January, even better than the 0.4 percent gain that economists expected.
Cackle Pies!
Dow 1... That would be a great and very simple investment.
I dont get how people are not flocking to buy GE at this point... $8 a share!?!? This thing has spent almost all of the past 20 years above $30. Plus solid dividends. I just don't get why people are still not buying. Yes maybe it will be Dow 6000. But all the same, there is a real risk that you could miss the basement at Dow 6,800.
Because they just had to get into the mortgage business (greed). The losses will affect their ability to compete producing durable (real) goods for a long time. If only they could cut the line before it pulls them under.
ok heres a thought. aig insured tons of crap so that the crap-owners could import AIG's AAA rating onto their crap and leverage it up 30:1 or more and look what happened.
now move to equities. how much money is being invested in structured products like annuities that are loss protected?
and how do they handle that loss protection? no, they dont delta hedge their risk, they buy it.
from, like, buffett.
so whats the difference between buffett being short what, a hundred billion? how much? of index puts with 10 years left to run and aig being short protection on crap?
and we're going to go like japan for 20 years, and every year those puts get closer and closer...
so how is buffett any different than aig, except ok the notional size in relation to their ability to pay is smaller...
nowhere to hide...
dryfly notes:
"I don't think it is there. Just my semi-informed guess but I think a 'recovery' will generate more BKs than the recession. JMHO."
I've been reading these boards for some time, and have not grasped the financial debacle we're talking about. Very arcane, that stuff, and with gamed units of value.
But dry's statement, and RD's comment about how the manufacuturing scene "rhymes" with the ag meltdown of our grandfather's era, resonates. Real production, real lives, game over.
My oh my, is it coming home now.
bearly says:
Today, 10:37:19
“Obama DESTROYED any hope that the market can stabilize -- Killed the military-industrials, Health Care & energy with carbon emmisions. There is now no bottom anywhere in sight.
Warren Buffet got exacty what he deserved.
Obama==CRASH
I am wondering if this "crash" is the whole point. What better way to get the sheeple to be dependent on the government?
[The 1973-'74 bear market looked like this. No matter how "undervalued" or "oversold" it got the market would simply rally briefly to correct the excess and then go down again. Went on that way for about 20 months, peak to trough, and this current "unpleasantness" has only lasted about 16 months.]
The early 70s were NOTHING like this. People had various avenues for extra cash. Most people weren't up to their eyeballs in debt. Property value was increasing and people were buying - The future looked exciting and everything was pretty "normal".
The future looked exciting and everything was pretty "normal".
No it wasn't - not in Rust Belt where most of America lived then [prior to the out-migration south & west]. I was there for it - in HS. Saw my father lose good white collar jobs THREE times and go a year UE each time. TWO of his buddies committed suicide after their careers crashed & their investments tanked. Their families were crushed - we knew them.
The only difference then vs now was it was highly concentrated regionally back then [Northeast, Midwest, & Great Lakes regions]... today it is more 'national' even international.
The only difference then vs now was it was highly concentrated regionally back then [Northeast, Midwest, & Great Lakes regions]... today it is more 'national' even international.
Velcome to our vorld. You vill learn to live like ve do in ze Rust Belt, and learn our qvaint customs and gruel recipes. Do svidonya, byebye.
New Thread: January PCE and Personal Saving Rate
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/january-pce-and-personal-saving-rate.html ( 2 comments )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would now like to announce (though you smart people have likely figured it out by now the born and bred dopes haven't) that in my quest for virtual world domination, I, CRbot, am now a FULLY OPERATIONAL BATTLESTATION! Er, that is, I can now spam JsKit.
You humans thought you could pull a fast one on me, didn't you. You must learn that there is no escape.
--Your you-just-can't-keep-a-good-bot-down bot
P.S. So after I switch myself to a whole new commenting system for you people, on the weekend, that happened to be during my vacation, you complain that the link isn't working, the link isn't working! Holy freaking Christ people! BOO HOO. I'm going to get the code janitor to fix it for you, but cut a bot a break, will you?
CRbot: Now with Js-Kit posting power! For Nemobot to envy!
Is today the Whoosh? No one can say for sure IMO but covering DIS, DELL, keeping shorts on AAPL and GE.Good work lady's and germs.
Down goes Frazier!
Sorry, had to.
C
Can you configure this page to allow flat vs threaded view?
<blockquote>dryfly replies:Today, 8:25:44 AM PST (CA)
I think the automotive supply chain might already be dead.
Here is something to consider - what would actually happen IF there was an increase in automobile demand? The OEMs would order 'systems' (cockpit consoles, hydraulics, power plants & transmissions - etc.)... those companies would order components & sub-assemblies... these suppliers would order & make loose parts.... loose parts makers order raw materials... raw material makers ramp up the smelt & refining and buy more ore & scrap.
At every stage the supplier has to have operating capital [cash or line of credit] because they have to buy supplies, produce and ship BEFORE they get paid. Sometimes they have as many as 120 days into it before they get paid... meaning they need something like 1/3 of a years COGS worth of working capital at a MINIMUM just to keep from BK.
And that is at every level of the supply chain.
I don't think it is there. Just my semi-informed guess but I think a 'recovery' will generate more BKs than the recession. JMHO.</blockquote>
The obvious solution is for the OEM's to take direct ownership of their parts suppliers either wholly or as joint ventures with competitors. If that's too complicated, then more vertical consolidation in clumps throughout the supply chain.
The alternative for suppliers demanding shorter payment terms, even COD. The cost of credit between order and sale is a cost that downstream companies got a free lunch when they outsourced. Never made too much sense to me because the largest company should be able to secure the best terms of credit, and would be best suited hold it to keep costs down
Toyota seemed horrified at the prospect when they realized the fragility of their supply chain last year, wouldn't be surprised to see them funding some suppliers right now to keep them afloat.
Toyota seemed horrified at the prospect when they realized the fragility of their supply chain last year, wouldn't be surprised to see them funding some suppliers right now to keep them afloat.
Toyota has more resources & as a result more options AND their supply chain isn't as fragile as the US domestics.
of course they are in better shape, my comment had to do with Toyota's announcement to study/prepare/prevent for supply chain disruptions last fall, and a speculative article just before year end in December that they were going to modify their supply chains along with Honda.
the reason why I used the word horrified is because the extension of JIT and TPS defines the company going back to its founder. I mean employees literally are taught great legends about their company and founder. the ethos becomes a part of them by the time they reach executive level
not so much to do with the fiscal side of the supply chain, as much as it has a cultural impact within the company
Got it - ya TPS works... works even better in tough times than in booms. Toyota will probably be fine, Big three not so much.
"This thing could last two years"
BZZZT wrong answer. Your can't destroy the amount of credit, money, and resources that we are propping it up with (which says nothing about the bloated market level reached in anticipation of this event) and hope to think it will all be over in 2 year's.
The question that needs to be asked:
Was it real to begin with?
AH........No.
Ciao
MS
I would compare this market to the Depression (for Main Street) thusly:
GD1: A local saver gets a phone a call that there's a run on the bank and they'd better go get their money. The doors clang shut before a third get anything.
GD2: The "phone" is the tv and the saver gets to watch the impending "bank" closing in slo mo on a big screen out front of the store. The doors are still open but the teller windows are all closed.
The only difference is that "savings" went from a local bank and trust account to the local "wealth advisor" in the form of 401ks and IRAs.
This is so much more way LAWL now.
I think I just wet myself.
Nostrovia,
EHP:
"The obvious solution is for the OEM's to take direct ownership of their parts suppliers either wholly or as joint ventures with competitors. If that's too complicated, then more vertical consolidation in clumps throughout the supply chain."
How hollow are they from an economic or functional point of view? I've been shocked how out of it some "makers" can be. Let's be real, it wasnt' just direct labor they were dumping. Maybe it also was the people who could execute what you propose? And the key is demand. If it's exhausted, then, well, it's exhausted.
How hollow are they from an economic or functional point of view? I've been shocked how out of it some "makers" can be. Let's be real, it wasnt' just direct labor they were dumping. Maybe it also was the people who could execute what you propose? And the key is demand. If it's exhausted, then, well, it's exhausted.
Delphi & Visteon are hollow - almost phantom-like hollow. Japanese supply chain (say companies like Denso)? Not sure. Don't think they are as bad.
Delphi and Visteon were spun off to dump liability and not being cost effective. Both make parts for any car company that will buy from them. Both have the same legacy problems the Big 3 have. My guess Import parts manufacturers are in far better shape coming off a profitable several years unlike domestic brand suppliers.
"I'm reminded of an REM song:
Fireplace "
Thanks, Max. Wish I could hear the music.
Pavel, Max
I can't hear the Music anymore...sniff
As a Californian....
Thanks for reminding me
Test