Timmy has been kept in hiding for the past two weeks so that he could get intensive training on what to say and how to say it. Would love to have been a fly on the wall at his training secessions.
Timmy says that 97% of small business owners earn less than 250K/year.
How then is it possible for small businesses to give their employees decent benefits, or do they just churn out surf employees?
Michael writes: Timmy says that 97% of small business owners earn less than 250K/year.
How then is it possible for small businesses to give their employees decent benefits, or do they just churn out surf employees?
This is a self-fulfilling categorization. If the owner makes $250K/year or more than they are not a small business; they are a "medium business"...or simply "rich".
They mean the individual owner, after All Expenses, Depreciation, everything else.. Net Net Net. Think Post-Ebida.. Or Adjusted Gross income, and 401K for the owner, etc.. If you're clearing that much you should have tax advisors. That will either get you close to that #, or...
Your rate will go up to the Clinton Years.. Thought most people would say they were good for the economy overall..
Are you better off now than you were 8 years ago? (Financially, exempting personal situations (death, divorce, etc...)
Not that I necessarily disagree with you, but you left out the WTC attacks (aka 9/11), a couple of wars, etc. Furthermore, your argument is fallacious due to your use of the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy.
It's sometimes hard to put all of the issues in perspective, but I'll try:
The airline industry is a very capital intensive and heavily unionized industry, and requires an enormous amount of cast flow to pay its bills.
9-11 resulted in them being grounded for weeks, cutting off their required cash flow, putting them at best, in a precarious financial position, and at worst, borderline insolvent.
This situation, along with being in a weak recovery left over from a Clinton Era recession (fallout from the Dot-Com bust) and a dive in the stock market, resulted in the Fed lowering interest rates, which subsequently resulted in the real estate bust which is the genesis of the financial crisis we're experiencing today.
Fortunately for Clinton, his WTC attack didn't have any of these ramifications, and his Presidency had few external issues of any significance to be concerned with. If it had, then perhaps he wouldn't have had time to be getting BJs in the Oval Office (FWIW, Presidents often seem to loose interest in being President after the second election. e.g. Ronald Reagan).
That said, the point here is not to defend one President or to trash another; it's simply to point out that circumstances were very different for each, and presuming that the policies for one would have worked better for the tenure of another is specious at best, and misleading at worst. For instance, a return to Clinton Era policies probably wouldn't do anything for the present economy, since the present economy is is VERY from that of 1992-2000. For that matter, BHO's current may work for today, but might have been terrible for Clinton's Era.
Thanks for not necessarily disagreeing with me, just a couple things..
One war was a war for choice. Some people would argue that you learn from the board game Risk, and you could learn from the Russian Army, you don't take over Afghanistan. Either way, the other war was a choice of that Administration..
The energy (including recent advances, such as alternative sourcer for jet fuel, will help airlines once the recovery comes (if it does in a timely manner.. but that is a different question.)) High Speed rail such as the 8B in the bill and California's initative will help airlines concentrate on the longer haul and international travel it needs to show a profit on, cutting down on both the energy needs and the limited profit on short-haul transport in the US. And I am proud to be a frequent Southwest Flyer, showing there will always be a need for short flights, but as the primary need maybe we can do better.
Some question the Clinton Recession, but granting that, We now have the Bush Depression. Would you say a weak recovery is superior to a strong weakening in just about every gauge you can imagine? I can imagine what a great deal of people would prefer.
Kennedy had Marilyn, Bill had Monica. That was probably the dumbest thing Bill ever did, but if his wife can forgive him..
I am not saying go back to EVERYTHING Clinton did (We need more regulation of the black boxes of CDOs etc. that led to the most recent trashing of the economy than under him for example), but with this one example, tax rates on roughly 2% of Americans, it's hard to see how, with the rest of the budget ideas (Health care primarily), one can't improve..
With Hillary at Sec. of State and not leding Health Care, maybe we can join the industrialized world, saving substantially more than even they think we can. To say that may help is an undersztatement. I am just hoping we can open up a plan like the Mail Carriers plan and/or Medicare to all. That along would cut down premiums on that due to the economies of scale and all.. SIngle payer may be so much better, but a small step now can lead to a giant leap later.
Between financial system fixes (however you do it --Nationalization--, Health Care, and alternative energy, in the long run, if we can fix those three things, can anyone honestly say that in the long term we wouldn't be better off as a country, and as a planet?
Losty: My main point was that while your conclusion may or may not have been correct, your reasoning was incorrect, in that you made the fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc, or "after this therefore because of this".
You indicated that since many feel that they were better off 8 years ago than they are today, Clinton policies were better. I was simply pointing out the situations were MUCH different, and as a result, one couldn't conclude whether your conclusion was correct or not. It wasn't a judgment call; more of a point of order. When one presents well reasoned arguments, it's much more difficult to refute them.
As for your points above, they miss the point. They may or may not be correct, but they're irrelevant to the argument in my previous paragraph, which is the only real argument I made. Your arguments may or may not be valid, but I'm not judging those either.
As for the "Clinton Recession", the same group that dated the current d/recession to Dec. '07 is the group that dated the "Clinton Recession" to Clinton's term in office. It wasn't a biggie anyway, except that we were still recovering from it when 9-11 occurred. A lot of folks here seem to think that if we (GWB) had let it "run its course", we wouldn't be in nearly as bad a condition as we are today, but that's a discussion for another day.
Currently Medicare is a loss leader and every provider wants to avoid it. If you have Medicare for all you will basically have real health care for none. You can basically "fix" health care by doing less things to more people. Less surgeries, less drugs, less diagnosis and, most importantly, less end of life care. The tag line for the new system, " accept the good long life that you have HAD."
They mean the individual owner, after All Expenses, Depreciation, everything else.. Net Net Net. Think Post-Ebida.. Or Adjusted Gross income, and 401K for the owner, etc.. If you're clearing that much you should have tax advisors. That will either get you close to that #, or...
Timmy says that 97% of small business owners earn less than 250K/year.
How then is it possible for small businesses to give their employees decent benefits, or do they just churn out surf employees?
Because personal income passed to the owner != business profits. It's possible for a business to gross 1 million dollars, spend 500k, net 500k, and the owner "pays himself" 99k of income and the business keeps the rest as operating capital.
Michael replies:Today, 2:19:33 PM
Shouldn't they use their extra operating capitol to pay decent wages and benefits, rather than have the government subsidize their employee benefits?
Michael replies:Today, 2:19:33 PM
Shouldn't they use their extra operating capitol to pay decent wages and benefits, rather than have the government subsidize their employee benefits?
They (folks like me) only pay 'decent wages & benefits' if I'm forced to - forced by gov't reg or forced by the employment market. That is fact - like it or hate it. No company pays better wages or benefits because their taxes are lowered or their margins are higher - anyone who thinks so is a fool or has never run their own business. There is nothing fair about wages paid or prices received - it is what the market will bear (or 'bare' as in bare your ass). Biz operators take everything they can get whether times are good or bad. Income taxes just don't factor in.
FICA does as do commercial property taxes - but they come out BEFORE the net.
I have no idea how GOPers get away with this patently false meme that lower income taxes paid by the wealthy result in better wages & benefits to the proles. It is as false as the reverse (that higher taxes would result in higher wages & benies for proles) - there is no connection. Move on to a better reason to justify your personal sacred cow (for or against income taxes).
You are wrong. I have run a small business. When times were good, we paid a much higher hourly wage and bonuses.
Good grief. Your stingy way is not the only way to run a business.
It isn't stingy - it is fair - pay what the market will bear good times & bad.
If I cut their pay when my take goes down do they stay? Do they volunteer to work for nothing? There were many years I took nothing at all but still paid people... meanwhile they get paid the same either way.
And try cutting your workers pay because you deserve to keep more for yourself - watch how fast the best workers find 'other options'. Like as fast as they become available.
Business isn't a personal hobby - it is business. Employees expect to get paid - if they produce a lot you pay them more TO KEEP THEM because their value is increased... not out of some dumb ass favor or sense of entitlement.
Likewise if they aren't producing and you can't find a way to train them to produce then you pay them less or let them go entirely even if the company is making beaucoup bucks.
Only in the world where businesses survive - in the other worlds they don't - we're seeing that now. In business if you can't fire your best friend then you had better never hire him.
BTW - we did have friends & family work in my business - when things got bad they too had to go. Talk about tough decisions. Fortunately they were close enough to the action to see it was a choice of (1) either work for nothing like me or (2) work for somebody else other than me or (3) don't work at all. Those were some of the years where I didn't take much or anything myself. In most cases they left before I even had to formally ask - they could see the handwriting on the wall. But if they didn't it wasn't an option to work for nothing - reg's don't allow that.
In the good years I didn't over pay for that same work - I back filled my savings to make up for the bad years when I took nothing so I could survive the next round of bad years. Employees, even friends & family, just leave when the bad years come - or retire early - they aren't anchored to the operation. The actual business owner is.
I think I agree w/ Dryfly. Small biz has no capacity to warehouse people. There are 2 basic pay structures - what the market demands for the needed skill set (+ maybe a smallish bonus in good times) and survival. People can still be treated with respect. But the break even has got to be cut to survive when revenue is not coming in and credit markets stink. My firm is in survival mode at the moment. Things look really bad Q1 2009 so far.
Disagree again. This business (a highly consumer discretionary type of business) is going gangbusters even in this downturn. The staff has been there forever due to the great pay and benefits. They work their asses off and are handsomely rewarded. Those that do not are let go. Everyone wants to work there.
I remember this time last year. I thought Toyota and Honda would be ok and their sales wouldn't be down that much. I guess you could say I was a born and bred dope.
Toyota's numbers were a real wakeup call for the general downturn.
Also, as was stated earlier re: f150, your quality works against you in this environment since churn is where the profit is and none of your customers from the last 4 years really need to come back to your door for another 4 if they have other uses for the money. Like food.
Do we really need electric cars, or just less horsepower? What if all the improvements in combustion engines over the last 30 years had gone into better mileage instead of more vroooooom?
"Do we really need electric cars, or just less horsepower?"
For a variety of reasons, there was a decade or so of microcars in Germany in the 50's. They're quite varied and spectacular. Among them was the "Kleinschnittger" the smallest of small production cars. It got 100 mpg or so with a top speed of 50 mph.
Advertising is usually budgeted backassward - meaning when they are flush with sales & cash they buy TONS of advertising... when they really don't need it anywhere near as bad. Then when sales tank & they run out of cash - they cut advertising like crazy just when it could do some good.
Common business flaw almost everywhere - instead of 'need' budgeting' they do 'proportional' budgeting - as in a proportion of sales not based on the need or demand for the actual budgeted factor... and people pay big money to go to MBA school to learn that.
I'm working on it! My 1999 Explorer has 160,000 miles on and still running strong. I'm going to keep it until I put it in the ground, maybe in a few more years.
5 bil a day into the aig/fre/fnm IV (and soon almost all of the xlf) and the windbags are bitching about small-town banker crap like deposit insurance and "access to credit"
I was online last night looking at vehicles - I'd LOVE to get a Ford Transit Connect van w/ the back customized into a small mobile office... ~20 mpg city and ~24 mpg highway. Probably include a microwave, coffee pot & fridge then live in it from time to time on long biz trips. But then I'm kinda crazy.
Nissan is in very bad shape and might be gone first (within the mentioned group of 3). Toyota seems to be better off than Honda. Honda is privately owned as far as I know. Wonder how that will work out...
Timmy says that small business owners earn less than 250K/year.
How then is it possible for small businessess to give their employees decent benefits, or do they just churn out surf employees?
The "less than $250K" would be after expenses including employee pay and benefits.
I blame TiVo and the decline of newspapers. I record almost everything I watch, and then skip the commercials. I stopped reading actual newspapers in the 1990s too. I'm experiencing a lot less advertising hype. As others do the same, they get to skip commercials, have more free time, and less "BUY BUY BUY!".
Timmy says that 97% of small business owners earn less than 250K/year.
How then is it possible for small businesses to give their employees decent benefits, or do they just churn out surf employees?
Because personal income passed to the owner != business profits. It's possible for a business to gross 1 million dollars, spend 500k, net 500k, and the owner "pays himself" 99k of income and the business keeps the rest as operating capital.
When I was just a young sprout, we were a one car family. I believe that many three plus car families will be cutting back. Back in the day, we didn't have all night shopping and all that, so it's easier now to get by with just one vehicle. Vehicles will eventually have to be replaced, but not all of them. Once the old Le Baron conks out, some families will just make do with the Camry.
In the mid-70s my parents had 3 kids and 2 cars. Today, my wife and I have 3 kids and 2 cars. One of my sisters has 4 kids and 1 car and another has 2 kids and 1 car. Demographics have a lot to do with it.
I'm buying an unemployed buddy a $60 lunch incl drinks
does that count?
Strange... I've been paying for my unemployed friends lunches and dinners and such. It's just assumed, given these times. I wonder how many people are doing the same?
What if we had an incentive program for insurers to total more cars after accidents? You know how a car might have damage that costs $6000 to fix, and it's only worth $10,000? Maybe the Federal Govt could pay the difference, and then there would be more demand for both new and used cars.
Why. that's as crazy as suggesting we had a massive and totally unsustainable overcapacity in:
* New homes
* Flat screen TVs
* Sketchy investment vehicles
* Ponies
Is it possible.. we have MASSIVE and totally unsustainable overcapacity in the car market ?
For the kinds of cars we make - absolutely. For the kinds of cars we will have in the future - no way.
And what is worse is that the capacity & the demand are completely disjointed. The demand for 'personal transportation' is mostly outside NAFTA Zone while the bulk of the world's capacity is in NAFTA ZONE targeted for past NAFTA Zone market tastes & buyer expectations. That is what is unsustainable - and we are learning that the hard way.
Wow ! It couldn't possible be because they SUCK so much. I've not used them in years, last time I was tempted to go the queue to the door and ridiculous rental rates made me say 'screw this' and put the movie back.
When the rental cost is like $2 less than the movie costs to own when Target has a sale..hmmm.. let me think.
Rick Denninger's articles and radio blog on the subject of "The Bezzle" is right on the money. This is a morality play and the evildoers have not yet been rooted out. O has to understand that "blah, blah, blah" won't do it. Does he ever sit behind a desk and do real research? Does he consult with others besides the enablers?
The Confidence Game has to be outed to restore confidence, unless the real objective is to bankrupt the Nation. Who gives The Fed all this power?
JPMorgan Chase & Co. managed to generate $5 billion in profit during the worst year in Wall Street history by trading over-the-counter fixed-income derivatives, two people with knowledge of the results said.
The JPMorgan trading desk, led by the 38-year-old Matt Zames, who previously worked at hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP ...
Shouldn't they use their operating capitol to pay decent wages and benefits, rather than have the government subsidize their employee benefits?
Great, and then they can also cut costs and pay even more decent wages and better benefits by firing anyone who had cancer because they'll eat up the premiums for everyone, and not hire women because they will probably need maternity expenses...
I think this is the count of mfg sales to dealers - stuffing the channel. Not sure. I know my local GMC/Pontiac dealership is stuffed to the gills. Seriously, I don't think they could jam one more vehicle in there.
Strange... I've been paying for my unemployed friends lunches and dinners and such. It's just assumed, given these times. I wonder how many people are doing the same?
Us too, even our less-well-employed friends & coworkers. And that's saying something, since we both work for a state uni.
The fiends have gagged a generation of pacified fools
Bound by our greed a nation enslaved as corporate tools.
Arise and RAZE the legacy of their lies
To realize that this in itself is an ascension
Towards the day we revolt.
oh, watch the seeds you've cast away take hold
War will be born.
Rejoice, the age of the fall has begun
We'll dance as the palaces burn.
A shot gun blast into the face of deceit
You'll gain your just reward.
We'll not rest until the purge is complete
You will reap what you've sown.
My redemption lies in your demise.
In such a world as this does one dare to think for himself?
The paradox of power and peace will destroy itself
To know the truth and live in fear of no man.
To realize that this in itself is an ascension
Toward the day we revolt.
oh, watch the seeds you've cast away take hold
War will be born.
Rejoice, the age of the fall has begun
We'll dance as the palaces burn.
My redemption, redemption lies in your demise.
Rejoice, the age of the fall has begun.
We'll dance as the palaces burn.
How about the NYTimes calling out AIG and demanding an anwser to who is being bailed out? Insytead of pontificating about green jobs maybe one of these dumb asses in congress could ask Tiny Timbo who he met with duiring his stint at the Fed on even of AIG bailout..
"Us too, even our less-well-employed friends & coworkers"
My dad never lets me or my siblings pay for meals. It's interesting that with the great benefit of globalization, four of his five children have substantially lower standards of living.
(BBI):knowing that Carl Ichan went in at about $11 and then doubled down at somewhere around $4 is precious. Nevermind it's his preferred shares (paying $17.50 per Q) that drained BBI of any remaining cash flow it had is what killed it off.
["The concerns that we will have a meltdown like 1929 are dramatically overblown," said Senator Bob Kerrey, Democrat of Nebraska. [in voting for the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act]
....thank goodness we don't have to worry about 1929 anymore.
We haven't seen a financial crisis like this one since...what? the barbarians stormed the gates of Rome? Unprecidented is getting more and more meaninful and simultaneously less and less precise.
Like most Senators he'd probably never actually read the bill, had no idea what it really did and was just another case of "Hey I got my campaign contribs and my lobbyist buddies ask me to vote on it."
The housing sector is in a depression...
The automobile industry is in a depression...
The financial sector is in a depression...
The global economy is tanking...
Basically, goodbye to the 20th century. The change that would ordinarily have happened over 20 years of gradual decline is happening over 2 years. Just clearing away the rubble from the explosion could take another 3 years or more.
That 250K is after paying for autos, car insurance, gas, and cell phones for the wife and two kids. Lets not forget the payroll expense of 4000 grand per month sent to those "working" kids in college. And the travel expnses each month for the weekend at the beach or skiing or just having fun. Would you like to eat out every day on the business expense account. Lets not forget the gas for the boat. I was let go from a mom and pop fence company after questioning personal expenses in the 10 -12K per month range. This was a company that put up fences in peoples back yards with an ocasional large chain link "school" job. They had been pading the expense account for years. Easy to do when no one, "IRS" is checking the books. Where do you think all of these liar, no dock loans are coming from.
"The housing sector is in a depression...
The automobile industry is in a depression...
The financial sector is in a depression...
The global economy is tanking..."
"Market uncertainty fills the air as investors are trying to measure the effects of stimulus packages and bank bailouts as they scramble to recalibrate their models. The market continues to reveal its bearish claws, most notably on days when President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner speak to the public. Their announced plans of action have significantly deflated market sentiment around the future performance of residential mortgages, which has been reflected in the recent Markit ABX.HE and single name ABCDS movements"
GM is up 4.98%! The bottom has finally arrived. At long last! Pent up demand due to a return in job growth and corporate fleet replacement and more available credit make GM, and all automakers, a good investment. Go long autos!
The government deficit is only one part of the equation. Add in off-balance sheet liabilities like medicare/SS, plus consumer debt, corporate debt, and municipal debt -- eh, I think people get it.
It shows how relative size.. and besides i think US GDP will be contracting tremendously with 70% consumption based and consumer savings up to about 5% already. Don't forget there's deficits and then there's debt!
When you hear that Consumption as a % of GDP, I hope you understand that GDP (=total income/total expenditure/total produced) is broken up into 4 buckets. Where Y=GDP, C=Consumption, I=Investment, G=Government Spending, X=Net exports
Y = C + I + G + X
Consumption is always going to be a very high proportion of GDP. Quoting 70% without understanding the context of the figure is bad form
EHP, that was the figure 'economists' quoted in the 'good times'. I won't even bother checking it up as one wonders how reliable these statistics come from. Like they say there are three types of lies. Lies, damn lies and statistics. What is pretty obvious going forward though is the deficit and the debt and the future commitments that will continue to plague both of these.
Why did Geithner say that we need a goal of DEFICIT to GDP, thats stupid, we need DEBT to GDP goal. I guess what he proposes is better than no limit, but still, with a deficit goal we will still run Up the DEBT, eating more and more of our yearly budget.
Why won't anyone agree to a timetable to a zero deficit?
Do these congressmen understand the difference between DEFICIT and DEBT? That congresswoman from California had no freakin clue.
President Money Honey sez, 'Step up, greater fools':
"...what you're now seeing is profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you've got a long-term perspective on it."
Hey President Barry, what's your advise on F and GM? I hear you are touting stocks now. Do you realize that PE ratios are high? You see price is down, but earnings are down more. What the Hell is compelling about an S & P with a PE of 18+?
Add up January and February 2009 sales and they still are less than February 2008 sales. Ouch. What business can make money when their sales get cut in half?
glad i could provide some humor. since we are burning through dollars to prop up the European Banks, er...AIG, maybe we can get those socialists over there in Euroland to buy some our cars....oh wait...we do not make cars that anyone buys anymore...Time for Federal rescue package then to support the production of hulking wastes of resources to make benefit for the people glorious transportation.
"I no longer believe Europe is worse than US in this mess."
"Economic tensions are beginning to spill into the streets. In January, Greek farmers demanding government aid blockaded border crossings with their tractors, holding up international truck traffic for more than a week. And on Jan. 13, 10,000 protesters gathered on Doma Square in the gothic Old Town of Riga, Latvia, demanding bolder government action to ease the pain of the financial crisis. The protest turned violent, and demonstrators battled with police, looted stores, and broke windows of several bank branches in the shadow of the Finance Ministry. "There's a huge amount of stress and tension," says Filip Klavins, a Latvian-American lawyer working in Riga." Riskier than Most Realized: How the Crisis Is Hitting Europe - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International
Unemployment in Spain has reached 13.9% in Spain with the number of those out of work increasing by 1.2 million, some 66% during 2008. These are numbers never seen before.
Ken L. was on Bloomberg this weekend telling everyone how "well-positioned" BAC is. He wasn't very convicing as he looked so angry the whole time.
I wonder if he admits to even himself the folly of buying Countrywide and Merril for anything other than glass beads and a coupon for free ice cream?
Has anyone else noticed that posts do not appear chronologically? It seems that if you use "REPLY", your post appears as an extention of the original entry. ...but then I'm reading from the JS-kit version - ymmv on halo.
You are correct. I do not own a car but lazy wife, she drives very beautiful honda crv. 1997. many miles. few problems. comrade i once own beast made by chrysler. ugly beast. no value. hard to pick up chicks. settled for wife and her crv.
No go to bend. bend for grey haired california snow birds or lazy rich lawyers and brat ski school children from PDX.
meant to say beautiful wife drives lazy honda crv! no recycling beautiful wife. she make beautiful children. plenty good to work. children live under a TARP and threatened by mean men with beards and wingtips and many zombies looking for new blood.
There is a great passage in Reich's "Locked in the Cabinet" where he describes getting prepped for his confirmation hearing. What Not-a-Banker says pretty much hits it right on the head. Anyone who thinks hearings serve to elicit useful information hasn't seen enough hearings.
The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury eliminated executive-compensation limits for sponsors of asset- backed securities accepted under a new $1 trillion program, indicating the rules may have hampered efforts to start the plan.
Car manufacturers need to finally scrap the franchised dealership/middleman strategy and go with the Dell approach - sell cars via online (with manufacturer-owned showrooms for test drives) cost+ a small profit. With house prices, art, clothing and everything else on sale or value-lowered, why is it that new cars never seem to come down in price? Sure, there are financing incentives, but if GM/Ford/Toyota want to spur on sales and clear the inventory, they need to either sell at cost or even take a slight loss.
Last week I received a $1,000 check in the mail from Toyota. Apparently I can cash this by trading in my 2002 Camry for a new Toyota. Seems desparate on their part. Aren't cars supposed to last for a while if you take good care of them? My folks are driving a 30 year old used cadillac.
We need a truck, and would love a nice used Toyota, but may go cheap with a new Ranger & reap the desperation deals.
Readers of Janet Tavakoli agree with her, no black swan here:
"The financial crisis is no Black Swan, but rather a natural consequence of financiers and regulators turning their backs on sound principles of the type that have served Buffett and his investors so well for so long."
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ahem..
Timmy has been kept in hiding for the past two weeks so that he could get intensive training on what to say and how to say it. Would love to have been a fly on the wall at his training secessions.
The markets are now open!
All these new threads are making me dizzy.
Timmy says that 97% of small business owners earn less than 250K/year.
How then is it possible for small businesses to give their employees decent benefits, or do they just churn out surf employees?
Only if they are by the beach.
Michael writes:
Timmy says that 97% of small business owners earn less than 250K/year.
How then is it possible for small businesses to give their employees decent benefits, or do they just churn out surf employees?
This is a self-fulfilling categorization. If the owner makes $250K/year or more than they are not a small business; they are a "medium business"...or simply "rich".
Um, Giving Benefits is an expense..
They mean the individual owner, after All Expenses, Depreciation, everything else.. Net Net Net. Think Post-Ebida.. Or Adjusted Gross income, and 401K for the owner, etc.. If you're clearing that much you should have tax advisors. That will either get you close to that #, or...
Your rate will go up to the Clinton Years.. Thought most people would say they were good for the economy overall..
Are you better off now than you were 8 years ago? (Financially, exempting personal situations (death, divorce, etc...)
Not that I necessarily disagree with you, but you left out the WTC attacks (aka 9/11), a couple of wars, etc. Furthermore, your argument is fallacious due to your use of the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy.
It's sometimes hard to put all of the issues in perspective, but I'll try:
The airline industry is a very capital intensive and heavily unionized industry, and requires an enormous amount of cast flow to pay its bills.
9-11 resulted in them being grounded for weeks, cutting off their required cash flow, putting them at best, in a precarious financial position, and at worst, borderline insolvent.
This situation, along with being in a weak recovery left over from a Clinton Era recession (fallout from the Dot-Com bust) and a dive in the stock market, resulted in the Fed lowering interest rates, which subsequently resulted in the real estate bust which is the genesis of the financial crisis we're experiencing today.
Fortunately for Clinton, his WTC attack didn't have any of these ramifications, and his Presidency had few external issues of any significance to be concerned with. If it had, then perhaps he wouldn't have had time to be getting BJs in the Oval Office (FWIW, Presidents often seem to loose interest in being President after the second election. e.g. Ronald Reagan).
That said, the point here is not to defend one President or to trash another; it's simply to point out that circumstances were very different for each, and presuming that the policies for one would have worked better for the tenure of another is specious at best, and misleading at worst. For instance, a return to Clinton Era policies probably wouldn't do anything for the present economy, since the present economy is is VERY from that of 1992-2000. For that matter, BHO's current may work for today, but might have been terrible for Clinton's Era.
Thanks for not necessarily disagreeing with me, just a couple things..
One war was a war for choice. Some people would argue that you learn from the board game Risk, and you could learn from the Russian Army, you don't take over Afghanistan. Either way, the other war was a choice of that Administration..
The energy (including recent advances, such as alternative sourcer for jet fuel, will help airlines once the recovery comes (if it does in a timely manner.. but that is a different question.)) High Speed rail such as the 8B in the bill and California's initative will help airlines concentrate on the longer haul and international travel it needs to show a profit on, cutting down on both the energy needs and the limited profit on short-haul transport in the US. And I am proud to be a frequent Southwest Flyer, showing there will always be a need for short flights, but as the primary need maybe we can do better.
Some question the Clinton Recession, but granting that, We now have the Bush Depression. Would you say a weak recovery is superior to a strong weakening in just about every gauge you can imagine? I can imagine what a great deal of people would prefer.
Kennedy had Marilyn, Bill had Monica. That was probably the dumbest thing Bill ever did, but if his wife can forgive him..
I am not saying go back to EVERYTHING Clinton did (We need more regulation of the black boxes of CDOs etc. that led to the most recent trashing of the economy than under him for example), but with this one example, tax rates on roughly 2% of Americans, it's hard to see how, with the rest of the budget ideas (Health care primarily), one can't improve..
With Hillary at Sec. of State and not leding Health Care, maybe we can join the industrialized world, saving substantially more than even they think we can. To say that may help is an undersztatement. I am just hoping we can open up a plan like the Mail Carriers plan and/or Medicare to all. That along would cut down premiums on that due to the economies of scale and all.. SIngle payer may be so much better, but a small step now can lead to a giant leap later.
Between financial system fixes (however you do it --Nationalization--, Health Care, and alternative energy, in the long run, if we can fix those three things, can anyone honestly say that in the long term we wouldn't be better off as a country, and as a planet?
Losty: My main point was that while your conclusion may or may not have been correct, your reasoning was incorrect, in that you made the fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc, or "after this therefore because of this".
You indicated that since many feel that they were better off 8 years ago than they are today, Clinton policies were better. I was simply pointing out the situations were MUCH different, and as a result, one couldn't conclude whether your conclusion was correct or not. It wasn't a judgment call; more of a point of order. When one presents well reasoned arguments, it's much more difficult to refute them.
As for your points above, they miss the point. They may or may not be correct, but they're irrelevant to the argument in my previous paragraph, which is the only real argument I made. Your arguments may or may not be valid, but I'm not judging those either.
As for the "Clinton Recession", the same group that dated the current d/recession to Dec. '07 is the group that dated the "Clinton Recession" to Clinton's term in office. It wasn't a biggie anyway, except that we were still recovering from it when 9-11 occurred. A lot of folks here seem to think that if we (GWB) had let it "run its course", we wouldn't be in nearly as bad a condition as we are today, but that's a discussion for another day.
Currently Medicare is a loss leader and every provider wants to avoid it. If you have Medicare for all you will basically have real health care for none. You can basically "fix" health care by doing less things to more people. Less surgeries, less drugs, less diagnosis and, most importantly, less end of life care. The tag line for the new system, " accept the good long life that you have HAD."
Um, Giving Benefits is an expense..
They mean the individual owner, after All Expenses, Depreciation, everything else.. Net Net Net. Think Post-Ebida.. Or Adjusted Gross income, and 401K for the owner, etc.. If you're clearing that much you should have tax advisors. That will either get you close to that #, or...
Exactly.
TIMMY IS AN ASS
“Michael writes:
Timmy says that 97% of small business owners earn less than 250K/year.
How then is it possible for small businesses to give their employees decent benefits, or do they just churn out surf employees?
Because personal income passed to the owner != business profits. It's possible for a business to gross 1 million dollars, spend 500k, net 500k, and the owner "pays himself" 99k of income and the business keeps the rest as operating capital.
Michael replies:Today, 2:19:33 PM
Shouldn't they use their extra operating capitol to pay decent wages and benefits, rather than have the government subsidize their employee benefits?
Michael replies:Today, 2:19:33 PM
Shouldn't they use their extra operating capitol to pay decent wages and benefits, rather than have the government subsidize their employee benefits?
They (folks like me) only pay 'decent wages & benefits' if I'm forced to - forced by gov't reg or forced by the employment market. That is fact - like it or hate it. No company pays better wages or benefits because their taxes are lowered or their margins are higher - anyone who thinks so is a fool or has never run their own business. There is nothing fair about wages paid or prices received - it is what the market will bear (or 'bare' as in bare your ass). Biz operators take everything they can get whether times are good or bad. Income taxes just don't factor in.
FICA does as do commercial property taxes - but they come out BEFORE the net.
I have no idea how GOPers get away with this patently false meme that lower income taxes paid by the wealthy result in better wages & benefits to the proles. It is as false as the reverse (that higher taxes would result in higher wages & benies for proles) - there is no connection. Move on to a better reason to justify your personal sacred cow (for or against income taxes).
You are wrong. I have run a small business. When times were good, we paid a much higher hourly wage and bonuses.
Good grief. Your stingy way is not the only way to run a business.
You are wrong. I have run a small business. When times were good, we paid a much higher hourly wage and bonuses.
Good grief. Your stingy way is not the only way to run a business.
It isn't stingy - it is fair - pay what the market will bear good times & bad.
If I cut their pay when my take goes down do they stay? Do they volunteer to work for nothing? There were many years I took nothing at all but still paid people... meanwhile they get paid the same either way.
And try cutting your workers pay because you deserve to keep more for yourself - watch how fast the best workers find 'other options'. Like as fast as they become available.
Business isn't a personal hobby - it is business. Employees expect to get paid - if they produce a lot you pay them more TO KEEP THEM because their value is increased... not out of some dumb ass favor or sense of entitlement.
Likewise if they aren't producing and you can't find a way to train them to produce then you pay them less or let them go entirely even if the company is making beaucoup bucks.
That is just the way it is.
Maybe in your world, but not in everyone's world.
Maybe in your world, but not in everyone's world.
Only in the world where businesses survive - in the other worlds they don't - we're seeing that now. In business if you can't fire your best friend then you had better never hire him.
BTW - we did have friends & family work in my business - when things got bad they too had to go. Talk about tough decisions. Fortunately they were close enough to the action to see it was a choice of (1) either work for nothing like me or (2) work for somebody else other than me or (3) don't work at all. Those were some of the years where I didn't take much or anything myself. In most cases they left before I even had to formally ask - they could see the handwriting on the wall. But if they didn't it wasn't an option to work for nothing - reg's don't allow that.
In the good years I didn't over pay for that same work - I back filled my savings to make up for the bad years when I took nothing so I could survive the next round of bad years. Employees, even friends & family, just leave when the bad years come - or retire early - they aren't anchored to the operation. The actual business owner is.
I think I agree w/ Dryfly. Small biz has no capacity to warehouse people. There are 2 basic pay structures - what the market demands for the needed skill set (+ maybe a smallish bonus in good times) and survival. People can still be treated with respect. But the break even has got to be cut to survive when revenue is not coming in and credit markets stink. My firm is in survival mode at the moment. Things look really bad Q1 2009 so far.
Disagree again. This business (a highly consumer discretionary type of business) is going gangbusters even in this downturn. The staff has been there forever due to the great pay and benefits. They work their asses off and are handsomely rewarded. Those that do not are let go. Everyone wants to work there.
Maybe they provide benefits and then write off the costs as a business expense?
Taxable earnings, you really are willfully ignorant, aren't you?
Difference is between "earnings" and "revenue."
All with bad news. Shaddup already Timmy!
america
heartbeat
of
Duh duh duh duh Demand Destruction
Betcha the market sells off after his testimony!
HONDA DOWN 38%
I remember this time last year. I thought Toyota and Honda would be ok and their sales wouldn't be down that much. I guess you could say I was a born and bred dope.
Toyota's numbers were a real wakeup call for the general downturn.
Also, as was stated earlier re: f150, your quality works against you in this environment since churn is where the profit is and none of your customers from the last 4 years really need to come back to your door for another 4 if they have other uses for the money. Like food.
Cue Megadeth: "High Speed Dirt"
This might be the song in question, not sure (can't view here): YouTube - Megadeth High Speed Dirt
Not to worry. The second half recovery is coming. So are electric cars.
Go long on sneakers.
Do we really need electric cars, or just less horsepower? What if all the improvements in combustion engines over the last 30 years had gone into better mileage instead of more vroooooom?
"Do we really need electric cars, or just less horsepower?"
For a variety of reasons, there was a decade or so of microcars in Germany in the 50's. They're quite varied and spectacular. Among them was the "Kleinschnittger" the smallest of small production cars. It got 100 mpg or so with a top speed of 50 mph.
One is featured in this commercial:
YouTube - Kleinschnittger in Cadillac Escalade ad film
THIRD HALF CAR RECOVERY.
Vicious. Meet Cycle.
--bh
VICIOUS BICYCLE.
Toyota will be the winner.
If GM, Chrysler and Ford goes bancrupt Toyota will take 50 % 0f the US market.
Hyundai will be a big winner, too.
Sorry those 50% are jobless
Whoever approved the NASCAR sponsorship at Toyota is a genius.
Looks like we might be under 10 million units per year....good night america
What happened to the usual SAAR projections?
are there fewer car commercials on tv these days?
are there fewer car commercials on tv these days?
Probably.
Advertising is usually budgeted backassward - meaning when they are flush with sales & cash they buy TONS of advertising... when they really don't need it anywhere near as bad. Then when sales tank & they run out of cash - they cut advertising like crazy just when it could do some good.
Common business flaw almost everywhere - instead of 'need' budgeting' they do 'proportional' budgeting - as in a proportion of sales not based on the need or demand for the actual budgeted factor... and people pay big money to go to MBA school to learn that.
SIGH
THEY BE JAMMIN
YES! Kermit... until Timmay's done.
If we can just shut Timmay up for 5 minutes.
repost from last thred..."okay I'll venture...me tinks we are going to beak hard to the upside near the close"
Strange. Tried to reply to bobn in the last thread and js-kit ate my response?
Try again: regarding the Clinton-Chinese item, here is snopes.com's debunking:
http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/domain.asp
Now I'm replying to Barley? Sorry for the confusion.
[wanders away from the computer, muttering something that rhymes with "js-kit"]
mass confusion...
I wish someone would set up a website devoted to debunking Snopes.
We will see you maybe right, if not this market is in really bad shape.
have you driven a ford... lately
Crisis averted; go buy a car!
I mean finance.
bgates - somebody had a great line a few threds back
"Have you seen a Ford lately"
"Have you driven Ford into the ground lately"
I'm working on it! My 1999 Explorer has 160,000 miles on and still running strong. I'm going to keep it until I put it in the ground, maybe in a few more years.
If you make a profit today, give some to a food pantry.
I'm buying an unemployed buddy a $60 lunch incl drinks
does that count?
jesus, these congressional windbags are clueless.
5 bil a day into the aig/fre/fnm IV (and soon almost all of the xlf) and the windbags are bitching about small-town banker crap like deposit insurance and "access to credit"
Straight up now, baby!!!!!!
Dollah up, commodities up. Don't get it.
"have you lived in a ford... lately?"
"have you lived in a ford... lately?"
"have you lived in a ford... lately?"
I was online last night looking at vehicles - I'd LOVE to get a Ford Transit Connect van w/ the back customized into a small mobile office... ~20 mpg city and ~24 mpg highway. Probably include a microwave, coffee pot & fridge then live in it from time to time on long biz trips. But then I'm kinda crazy.
So I'm buying a car this week - which company is a better bet Toyota, Honda or Nissan?
You paying cash? If not you have secure employment?..
Think before you plunge...just a thought.
some of us save for our purchases and can buy stuff.
I don't have a car. Live in NYC. Seems that if I want one in the next 5 years now is the time to buy...
Nissan is in very bad shape and might be gone first (within the mentioned group of 3). Toyota seems to be better off than Honda. Honda is privately owned as far as I know. Wonder how that will work out...
Michael writes:
Timmy says that small business owners earn less than 250K/year.
How then is it possible for small businessess to give their employees decent benefits, or do they just churn out surf employees?
The "less than $250K" would be after expenses including employee pay and benefits.
Also, that's "serf", not "surf".
debt surfing was more fun.
I blame TiVo and the decline of newspapers. I record almost everything I watch, and then skip the commercials. I stopped reading actual newspapers in the 1990s too. I'm experiencing a lot less advertising hype. As others do the same, they get to skip commercials, have more free time, and less "BUY BUY BUY!".
pump pump em up..woho
Michael writes:
Timmy says that 97% of small business owners earn less than 250K/year.
How then is it possible for small businesses to give their employees decent benefits, or do they just churn out surf employees?
Because personal income passed to the owner != business profits. It's possible for a business to gross 1 million dollars, spend 500k, net 500k, and the owner "pays himself" 99k of income and the business keeps the rest as operating capital.
Shouldn't they use their operating capitol to pay decent wages and benefits, rather than have the government subsidize their employee benefits?
That's a business decision, not a "Your Tax is going up for the average Tupperware mom" definition..
Different topic, and the answer will vary by person.
When I was just a young sprout, we were a one car family. I believe that many three plus car families will be cutting back. Back in the day, we didn't have all night shopping and all that, so it's easier now to get by with just one vehicle. Vehicles will eventually have to be replaced, but not all of them. Once the old Le Baron conks out, some families will just make do with the Camry.
In the mid-70s my parents had 3 kids and 2 cars. Today, my wife and I have 3 kids and 2 cars. One of my sisters has 4 kids and 1 car and another has 2 kids and 1 car. Demographics have a lot to do with it.
Timmy is confusing capital adequacy with risk aversion.....
Also, that's "serf", not "surf".
Not here in Santa Cruz it's not...
bgates writes:
I'm buying an unemployed buddy a $60 lunch incl drinks
does that count?
Strange... I've been paying for my unemployed friends lunches and dinners and such. It's just assumed, given these times. I wonder how many people are doing the same?
What if we had an incentive program for insurers to total more cars after accidents? You know how a car might have damage that costs $6000 to fix, and it's only worth $10,000? Maybe the Federal Govt could pay the difference, and then there would be more demand for both new and used cars.
And the guberment could make money in the recycled metals market
Is it possible.. we have MASSIVE and totally unsustainable overcapacity in the car market ?
Yes; It is possible-
Why. that's as crazy as suggesting we had a massive and totally unsustainable overcapacity in:
* New homes
* Flat screen TVs
* Sketchy investment vehicles
* Ponies
Ponzis ?
Oh, I think the market for Ponzis will remain strong through these tough times.
More like P0wnzies. AMIRITE?
Is it possible.. we have MASSIVE and totally unsustainable overcapacity in the car market ?
For the kinds of cars we make - absolutely. For the kinds of cars we will have in the future - no way.
And what is worse is that the capacity & the demand are completely disjointed. The demand for 'personal transportation' is mostly outside NAFTA Zone while the bulk of the world's capacity is in NAFTA ZONE targeted for past NAFTA Zone market tastes & buyer expectations. That is what is unsustainable - and we are learning that the hard way.
Blockbuster hires BK adivsor...
Wow ! It couldn't possible be because they SUCK so much. I've not used them in years, last time I was tempted to go the queue to the door and ridiculous rental rates made me say 'screw this' and put the movie back.
When the rental cost is like $2 less than the movie costs to own when Target has a sale..hmmm.. let me think.
Redbox and Netflix drank Blockbuster's milkshake. They drank it all up.
Rick Denninger's articles and radio blog on the subject of "The Bezzle" is right on the money. This is a morality play and the evildoers have not yet been rooted out. O has to understand that "blah, blah, blah" won't do it. Does he ever sit behind a desk and do real research? Does he consult with others besides the enablers?
The Confidence Game has to be outed to restore confidence, unless the real objective is to bankrupt the Nation. Who gives The Fed all this power?
Obama will save us
JPMorgan Said to Reap $5 Billion Derivatives Profit (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
JPMorgan Chase & Co. managed to generate $5 billion in profit during the worst year in Wall Street history by trading over-the-counter fixed-income derivatives, two people with knowledge of the results said.
The JPMorgan trading desk, led by the 38-year-old Matt Zames, who previously worked at hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP ...
facepalm
"Look buy this coz if anything goes wrong the taxpayer will bail you out !"
Michael writes:
Shouldn't they use their operating capitol to pay decent wages and benefits, rather than have the government subsidize their employee benefits?
Great, and then they can also cut costs and pay even more decent wages and better benefits by firing anyone who had cancer because they'll eat up the premiums for everyone, and not hire women because they will probably need maternity expenses...
Mike, you're an idiot.
Well, if we can get single payer, the improved cost-effective benefits would be there.
But I digress..
Hopefully we can buy into Mail Carriers or something like that, driving the premiums down more for it..
.
"The "less than $250K" would be after expenses including employee pay and benefits."
Would those benefits be 'french benefits'?
Oui !
Rick Denninger's articles and radio blog on the subject of "The Bezzle"
Is this a cross of Karl Denninger and Rick Derringer? If so, can he play guitar over the internet while issuing false Red Alerts?
Sorry Karl..yea, you know that Denninger guy
LOL. Ticker Forum Hoochie Koo
TABLE-Porsche Feb U.S. vehicle sales off adj. 7.8 pct
| Reuters
Import Car 1,074 960 16.5%
Porsche car sales jumped by 16.5% in Feb. Jas, did your kid add a Porsche to his collection?
ascar: who will fund panem et circenses for the born and bred . . .
= string bla?
some of us save for our purchases and can buy stuff.
Guest
That is SO un-Amerikan!
Who are the 110,000 idiots buying a car from a dying company??
Probably the rental car companies.
I think this is the count of mfg sales to dealers - stuffing the channel. Not sure. I know my local GMC/Pontiac dealership is stuffed to the gills. Seriously, I don't think they could jam one more vehicle in there.
Are you better off now than you were 8 years ago?
8 years ago I weighed 50 lbs less. And I was 8 years younger, too. Clearly, the Bush administration done me wrong!
Elmer Fudd says:Today, 2:26:30 PM EST
nascar: who will fund panem et circenses for the born and bred . . .
Tax JAS and call it a user fee.
if you look closely it looks like Turbo has written notes on the palm of his hand
out the rest of my QID......from low 40's..
Ciao
MS
Have you considered PRO or QUO?
Rally monkey is trying hard to get in gear...
Strange... I've been paying for my unemployed friends lunches and dinners and such. It's just assumed, given these times. I wonder how many people are doing the same?
Us too, even our less-well-employed friends & coworkers. And that's saying something, since we both work for a state uni.
Lamb of God - Ruin - Free MP3 Stream on IMEEM Music
Lamb of God
"As the Palaces Burn"
The fiends have gagged a generation of pacified fools
Bound by our greed a nation enslaved as corporate tools.
Arise and RAZE the legacy of their lies
To realize that this in itself is an ascension
Towards the day we revolt.
oh, watch the seeds you've cast away take hold
War will be born.
Rejoice, the age of the fall has begun
We'll dance as the palaces burn.
A shot gun blast into the face of deceit
You'll gain your just reward.
We'll not rest until the purge is complete
You will reap what you've sown.
My redemption lies in your demise.
In such a world as this does one dare to think for himself?
The paradox of power and peace will destroy itself
To know the truth and live in fear of no man.
To realize that this in itself is an ascension
Toward the day we revolt.
oh, watch the seeds you've cast away take hold
War will be born.
Rejoice, the age of the fall has begun
We'll dance as the palaces burn.
My redemption, redemption lies in your demise.
Rejoice, the age of the fall has begun.
We'll dance as the palaces burn.
mosh mosh mosh Burn The Priest was a better band name, they should have kept it.
Tax JAS and call it a user fee.
I'm not sure that's a good idea: JAS
holy crap...someone lit a fuse under NFLX....
+12%
Ciao
MS
Blockbuster did.. Hiring an advisor.. BK
That's probably because blockbuster is actually on-fire, as in the burning-the-house-down type of fire.
BBI in chapter 11 in 5...4..3..2....
How about the NYTimes calling out AIG and demanding an anwser to who is being bailed out? Insytead of pontificating about green jobs maybe one of these dumb asses in congress could ask Tiny Timbo who he met with duiring his stint at the Fed on even of AIG bailout..
Bank of England set to boost money supply
Why is everybody not running away from the pound
"Us too, even our less-well-employed friends & coworkers"
My dad never lets me or my siblings pay for meals. It's interesting that with the great benefit of globalization, four of his five children have substantially lower standards of living.
Oh, what a miracle.
CONGRESS PASSES WIDE-RANGING BILL EASING BANK LAWS
CONGRESS PASSES WIDE-RANGING BILL EASING BANK LAWS - The New York Times
Love the I-net nothing really ever goes away. In 1999, the foundations for today's melt-down were set in place.
Thank you. I needed that. Loved Uncle Phil's comment about the US leading the way in the new century. He certainly set it up to do that.
(BBI):knowing that Carl Ichan went in at about $11 and then doubled down at somewhere around $4 is precious. Nevermind it's his preferred shares (paying $17.50 per Q) that drained BBI of any remaining cash flow it had is what killed it off.
Ciao
MS
Ack! The dreaded 'W' formation is taking shape in today's charts. Why won't he leave us alone!!!
oops...looks like the rally monkey got spanked. But at least the bad auto news didn't create another crater on impact.
["The concerns that we will have a meltdown like 1929 are dramatically overblown," said Senator Bob Kerrey, Democrat of Nebraska. [in voting for the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act]
....thank goodness we don't have to worry about 1929 anymore.
We haven't seen a financial crisis like this one since...what? the barbarians stormed the gates of Rome? Unprecidented is getting more and more meaninful and simultaneously less and less precise.
Like most Senators he'd probably never actually read the bill, had no idea what it really did and was just another case of "Hey I got my campaign contribs and my lobbyist buddies ask me to vote on it."
Hmm. Time to do some deep thinking here.
The housing sector is in a depression...
The automobile industry is in a depression...
The financial sector is in a depression...
The global economy is tanking...
Basically, goodbye to the 20th century. The change that would ordinarily have happened over 20 years of gradual decline is happening over 2 years. Just clearing away the rubble from the explosion could take another 3 years or more.
That 250K is after paying for autos, car insurance, gas, and cell phones for the wife and two kids. Lets not forget the payroll expense of 4000 grand per month sent to those "working" kids in college. And the travel expnses each month for the weekend at the beach or skiing or just having fun. Would you like to eat out every day on the business expense account. Lets not forget the gas for the boat. I was let go from a mom and pop fence company after questioning personal expenses in the 10 -12K per month range. This was a company that put up fences in peoples back yards with an ocasional large chain link "school" job. They had been pading the expense account for years. Easy to do when no one, "IRS" is checking the books. Where do you think all of these liar, no dock loans are coming from.
The Haloscan format is better. I didn't realize how much better until just now (CRbot).
"The housing sector is in a depression...
The automobile industry is in a depression...
The financial sector is in a depression...
The global economy is tanking..."
EQUALS 2nd half recovery!!!
Rick Santelli: I Want to Set the Record Straight
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29471026
Rick is the man! Sock it to em!
YouTube - Rick Santelli and the "Rant of the Year"
876K Views so far! Way to go!
Wow, excellent response by Santelli. He is the man!!!
You have to have battered-wife syndrome to have any love for Santelli.
Geithner is inheriting this problem? WTF???
He was ONLY the NY FED gov... he couldn't do a thing then!
Hey, at least it wasn't -100%. I feel better about my government's investment in GM already.
"EQUALS 2nd half recovery!!!"
What other reasonable conclusion could there possibly be?
That was me.
Nobody is arguing against a 2050-2099 second half recovery.
lol...
It's unlikely though as SS and Medicare will have tanked things along with global warming and peak oil.
Ritholtz puts it in perspective, why this is so #$@#$$:
The US Deficit in Global Perspective
The US Deficit in Global Perspective | The Big Picture
I no longer believe Europe is worse than US in this mess.
Thats a confusing chart.
More meaningful would be a deficit as a % of respective country GDP chart. Thats a better comparison.
You missed the point, it shows how the US deficit surpasses most countries GDP!
Need a good laugh? From Markit:
"Market uncertainty fills the air as investors are trying to measure the effects of stimulus packages and bank bailouts as they scramble to recalibrate their models. The market continues to reveal its bearish claws, most notably on days when President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner speak to the public. Their announced plans of action have significantly deflated market sentiment around the future performance of residential mortgages, which has been reflected in the recent Markit ABX.HE and single name ABCDS movements"
http://www.markit.com/news/USABS_Market_20090303.pdf
GM is up 4.98%! The bottom has finally arrived. At long last! Pent up demand due to a return in job growth and corporate fleet replacement and more available credit make GM, and all automakers, a good investment. Go long autos!
The Latest from Denninger:
Bernanke's Lies, Part 4,232,123 (AIG)
"I no longer believe Europe is worse than US in this mess."
Compared to % of GDP, the US is not as bad as the other countries. Of course GDP is heading south and the deficit is heading north.
Exactly...GDP lies and deficit is not even total debt. If we bring debt into it, i think it's three times Europe's.
The government deficit is only one part of the equation. Add in off-balance sheet liabilities like medicare/SS, plus consumer debt, corporate debt, and municipal debt -- eh, I think people get it.
Better to keep your head in the sand.
Well before this is done US debt should be about $18 trillion based on past financial crises
EHP you incorrigible optimist!
The US Deficit in Global Perspective
The US Deficit in Global Perspective | The Big Picture
The graph needs to compare each country's deficit to its own GDP - not the US GDP, which makes no sense.
It shows how relative size.. and besides i think US GDP will be contracting tremendously with 70% consumption based and consumer savings up to about 5% already. Don't forget there's deficits and then there's debt!
When you hear that Consumption as a % of GDP, I hope you understand that GDP (=total income/total expenditure/total produced) is broken up into 4 buckets. Where Y=GDP, C=Consumption, I=Investment, G=Government Spending, X=Net exports
Y = C + I + G + X
Consumption is always going to be a very high proportion of GDP. Quoting 70% without understanding the context of the figure is bad form
EHP, that was the figure 'economists' quoted in the 'good times'. I won't even bother checking it up as one wonders how reliable these statistics come from. Like they say there are three types of lies. Lies, damn lies and statistics. What is pretty obvious going forward though is the deficit and the debt and the future commitments that will continue to plague both of these.
Thanks for your comments, i appreciate it.
The graph needs to compare each country's deficit to its own GDP - not the US GDP, which makes no sense.
Lies damn lies & statistics.
Why did Geithner say that we need a goal of DEFICIT to GDP, thats stupid, we need DEBT to GDP goal. I guess what he proposes is better than no limit, but still, with a deficit goal we will still run Up the DEBT, eating more and more of our yearly budget.
Why won't anyone agree to a timetable to a zero deficit?
Do these congressmen understand the difference between DEFICIT and DEBT? That congresswoman from California had no freakin clue.
"Pent-up demand".
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAA!
I have tons of pent-up demand.
No cash or job, though!
Obama, not afraid to call the bottom
Obama: Stock 'fits and starts' Are Normal Reaction - Politics and Government * US * News * Story - CNBC.com
President Money Honey sez, 'Step up, greater fools':
"...what you're now seeing is profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you've got a long-term perspective on it."
WhiteHouse Press Sec. is an assh@t! He can't communicate well!
"The graph needs to compare each country's deficit to its own GDP"
Another amusing fallacy. If the U.S. is eating 150% of all world savings, GDP hardly matters.
It matters when you compare currencies
Hey President Barry, what's your advise on F and GM? I hear you are touting stocks now. Do you realize that PE ratios are high? You see price is down, but earnings are down more. What the Hell is compelling about an S & P with a PE of 18+?
Market tried 710 three times. Come on, bears. Take it down.
Add up January and February 2009 sales and they still are less than February 2008 sales. Ouch. What business can make money when their sales get cut in half?
That's easy to explain. February 2008 had 29 days while February 2009 only had 28.
broward horne,
glad i could provide some humor. since we are burning through dollars to prop up the European Banks, er...AIG, maybe we can get those socialists over there in Euroland to buy some our cars....oh wait...we do not make cars that anyone buys anymore...Time for Federal rescue package then to support the production of hulking wastes of resources to make benefit for the people glorious transportation.
Ah, Beavis Geithner at the House Ways Committe!
You have not lived if you haven't kissed a bankster's ass; US Representatives live intensively.
Beavis is to Geither as Butthead is to ...
"I no longer believe Europe is worse than US in this mess."
"Economic tensions are beginning to spill into the streets. In January, Greek farmers demanding government aid blockaded border crossings with their tractors, holding up international truck traffic for more than a week. And on Jan. 13, 10,000 protesters gathered on Doma Square in the gothic Old Town of Riga, Latvia, demanding bolder government action to ease the pain of the financial crisis. The protest turned violent, and demonstrators battled with police, looted stores, and broke windows of several bank branches in the shadow of the Finance Ministry. "There's a huge amount of stress and tension," says Filip Klavins, a Latvian-American lawyer working in Riga."
Riskier than Most Realized: How the Crisis Is Hitting Europe - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International
A preview of things to come?
Unemployment in Spain has reached 13.9% in Spain with the number of those out of work increasing by 1.2 million, some 66% during 2008. These are numbers never seen before.
At least they won the Euro 2008 and have the best tennis player around.
S&P lowers Rating of BAC to A and Outlook Negative.
Way to go Ken Lewis...!
Comrade PDx, you live in Portland, you have no knowledge or need of cars. Besides, you would be banished to Bend if you bought one.
Ruh Roh..
B of A Cut to A.. Outlook Negative at S&P..
Ken L. was on Bloomberg this weekend telling everyone how "well-positioned" BAC is. He wasn't very convicing as he looked so angry the whole time.
I wonder if he admits to even himself the folly of buying Countrywide and Merril for anything other than glass beads and a coupon for free ice cream?
where's the BAC S&P news?
CNBC.. Also should be out now, but no link, sorry..
It came across the wires. HSBC finance got cut as well...
SMS and losty...still not seeing the downgrades.
links?
Bank of America Corp. Lowered to A by Standard & Poor’s - Bloomberg.com
Here you go.
Try here: S&P downgrades Bank of America ratings - MarketWatch
thanks.
market to open in 3 minutes.
grab some grizzly fur and hang on.
--bh
As Dr Phil said in an MSN interview, you people should be getting a second job or selling your car to pay down your credit cards.
After all, it was your lifestyle that got us into this mess.
Has anyone else noticed that posts do not appear chronologically? It seems that if you use "REPLY", your post appears as an extention of the original entry. ...but then I'm reading from the JS-kit version - ymmv on halo.
Broward Horne,
You are correct. I do not own a car but lazy wife, she drives very beautiful honda crv. 1997. many miles. few problems. comrade i once own beast made by chrysler. ugly beast. no value. hard to pick up chicks. settled for wife and her crv.
No go to bend. bend for grey haired california snow birds or lazy rich lawyers and brat ski school children from PDX.
"you people should be getting a second job"
Thanks but I think I'll start off with a "first job".
Great, Blockbuster not intending to file for bankrupcy.. DJ
Firm hired to help capital raising initatives..
" but lazy wife"
Ah, yes, I had a lazy wife, a large house and a mean cat.
However, I "recycled" them in 2004.
I am very green, except for my wallet.
meant to say beautiful wife drives lazy honda crv! no recycling beautiful wife. she make beautiful children. plenty good to work. children live under a TARP and threatened by mean men with beards and wingtips and many zombies looking for new blood.
timmay where's kermit?
Micheal-
That training would consist of:
Tim, if it's a point we agree with just say:
"Thank you Congressman."
If it is a point we don't agree with, just say:
"The Administrations would be happy to work with Congress on how to best address that issue."
If it is a real life example of how disastrous a situation we are in just say:
"that's why it is imperative that Congress act on the Administration's proposals immediately."
Nice analysis. You are a perfect candidate to understand Delphi Technique.
There is a great passage in Reich's "Locked in the Cabinet" where he describes getting prepped for his confirmation hearing. What Not-a-Banker says pretty much hits it right on the head. Anyone who thinks hearings serve to elicit useful information hasn't seen enough hearings.
Fed & Treasury want MORE "tools"? Don't want special financing programs to be counted on debt limit.
Market tried 710 three times. Come on, bears. Take it down.
someone was listening
"Fed & Treasury want MORE "tools"?"
Yes, they're still trying to get Rubin and Krugman hired on as "consultants".
looks like a sell and hold the cash crowd on the market this afternoo
wow, something happened at approx ~ 3:20.
BofA downgrade
prophet taking
is haloscan wonky for others, or am I special?
Yes.
Buffett’s Berkshire Plans Job Cuts Amid Recession
Fire the CEO.. off with his head!
will sp at 700 become the new cieling?
Obama Says Buy Stocks - translate - Obama is calling this a bottom - is he nuts or is something else afoot
I have an acronym for the next facility...FUBAR FACILITY
Giving in to the whiners will solve the problems.
Well, well on CNBC AIG is now synonymous with fraud. But our Prez says its a great time to buy stocks. Lord, help us.
Chrysler U.S. February sales down 44% to 84,050 units
Any impact news expected after the close?
So much for the executive compensation limits:
The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury eliminated executive-compensation limits for sponsors of asset- backed securities accepted under a new $1 trillion program, indicating the rules may have hampered efforts to start the plan.
Fed Eliminates Compensation Limits for TALF Program (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
COME ON KERMIT!
I'm weeping for the pesky little frog.
I wonder if they will be able to defend 700 today. Getting late.
Car manufacturers need to finally scrap the franchised dealership/middleman strategy and go with the Dell approach - sell cars via online (with manufacturer-owned showrooms for test drives) cost+ a small profit. With house prices, art, clothing and everything else on sale or value-lowered, why is it that new cars never seem to come down in price? Sure, there are financing incentives, but if GM/Ford/Toyota want to spur on sales and clear the inventory, they need to either sell at cost or even take a slight loss.
Thanks Timmay for that sub-700 close. Good job laying out the specifics of your plan.
It seems to be that both haloscan and js-kit are Zombie comment systems. Is it really that hard a thing a do?
I can write one if you give me 20 bucks. You'll need a pretty fat SQL server behind it though.
The Obama-budget assumes an 1% contraction of the US economy in '09 ????
Video from Congressman Kevin Brady's page (Page Not Found - United States House of Representatives, 111th Congress, 1st Session, him asking Geithner in todays House Ways and Means hearing : 404 Not Found
Geithner : "This is correct" (an only 1% contraction) .
Ohohbama Ohohh !
Car manufacturers need to finally scrap the franchised dealership/middleman strategy and go with the Dell approach - sell cars via online
Most states have laws preventing mfgs from selling directly to the consumer, as a giveaway to the local dealers.
Don't worry, BB is going to bailout out the entire automobile supply and retails chains.
SPY is breaking below the days lows in AH. Tomorrow could be ugly again -- although it's a long way to then...
State Farm lowered to neg by SP as well. Don't hit anyone.
In Obama we trust.
Last week I received a $1,000 check in the mail from Toyota. Apparently I can cash this by trading in my 2002 Camry for a new Toyota. Seems desparate on their part. Aren't cars supposed to last for a while if you take good care of them? My folks are driving a 30 year old used cadillac.
We need a truck, and would love a nice used Toyota, but may go cheap with a new Ranger & reap the desperation deals.
Readers of Janet Tavakoli agree with her, no black swan here:
"The financial crisis is no Black Swan, but rather a natural consequence of financiers and regulators turning their backs on sound principles of the type that have served Buffett and his investors so well for so long."
Though, now we know even Buffett is taking a fall.
Amazon.com: PI "patois65"'s review of Dear Mr. Buffett: What An Investor Learns ...