On the 40 year SPX graph there may not be a right side, but a drop to 450 would outline a nice mortgage pig and establish the newly discovered 'M' pattern.
No bail outs for eastern europe [meaning no bail out for western european banks]
I don't think that this is the case. If you look at this post where I quickly translated this Spiegel article thats says:
... Merkel went against the thrust of Baden-Württemberg's Minister President Günther Oettinger (CDU) to let the wounded HRE go insolvent. The reasoning: It has been internationally agreed that no more banks that could topple others would be allowed to go bankrupt. The state has to take care of Hypo Real Estate. Another collapse such as the one of U.S. bank Lehman Brothers has to be prevented. ...
This is one of the most significant quotes IMO in the past few months and it hasn't attracted a lot of attention. I don't know why. There must be a major agreement somewhere...
“Remember that G-20 meeting back in November or December....I'm sure they made this agreement then.
I agree. However, such an agreement should have made the news in the States as well. It has such far reaching implications.
In fact, it would explain many of the recent actions in Washington. It really seems to have been hushed up, likely for political reasons, except for that Merkel quote.
this link is from lee county, fl property appraisers office. at the bottom is the sale price of 150K with 390k tax assessment. this is a deep usable canal front home 10 minutes to the gulf. look at the sale price ten years ago.
All jokes aside I think we close above 800 this year despite the failures of this and the previous administration to do what must be done. Oh course this MEANS NOTHING for retirees, Pension funds, and the American people in general. Good night and Give Up...
Serious, how will the past ten year effect investors going forward? Will they expect bubbles making markets more volatile, something we are seeing already? Or will they just refuse to carry risk and leverage, as happened after the last Depression?
What about houses? I predict a second bubble in houses; look what happened to stocks.
My husband is younger than I am. He is 33 and I am 48. After this debacle, he says he will never invest in the stock market (or should I say "scam market")
The pigs have lost and may keep on losing. So is it possible for the derivative liabilities in an interconnected system amongst all the financial entities to owe more than the value of all worldwide assets. I presume someone gets paid when all the derivatives explode, so is it the system that remains is just the last liquid financial entity standing. Who is that? US government?
It shouldn't have been possible, but there was a 0 day bug in the system...
Allowing banks to sell loans to non-regulated entities opened up an exploit in the fractional reserve banking system. This allowed the banking system, through the individual banks, to generate as many loans as they could find borrowers for, and purchasers of. The bank just sits in the middle of this and takes in the fees.
Consequently, if you somehow today collapsed all the commercial bank debt on to all the commercial bank deposits, instead of being left with the reserve amount as the original deposit - you would be left with an outstanding amount of debt (about $3 trillion just for the USA), and no corresponding deposit money to pay it off.
OK folks. The salad days for CRblog residents & lurkers & all those doom-peddlers are over at least for the time being. Multimonth lows in the market are being set in this week. So folks enjoy as much as you can, Bear misery will be overwhelming.
Yeah yeah credit bust, financial calamity, blah blah blah
Good luck to you. There are a billion shoes left to fall out of the closet, could be drip drip drip or 1 massive crash. Wouldn't want to be long here. Jobs on Friday. 750 loss Priced in ?
Well, not in terms of what the UE claims figures are going to reflect ove rthe next month or so. A crapload of firings in Dec, Jan & Feb that were at levels governed by the WARN act. They are still on the payroll and the shift to state claims will spike weekly claims hard.
seriously? you believe this crap? layoffs where i see them will be accelerating in the late spring and early summer, if not sooner as some employers fiscal year runs july to july.
New Zealand is bracing for its worst recession on record and credit ratings firm Standard & Poor's has warned that the country's sovereign AA plus rating is at risk of a downgrade if fiscal imbalances are not addressed. SCENARIOS-New Zealand faces risk of credit rating cuts
| Reuters
Sucking them into the black hole. Just like shooting fish in a barrel.
If things get too bad the kiwis can always become part of Australia - under the Australian constitution New Zealand has the right to join Australia, although knowing most kiwis they would rather eat their own children than become Australian
on the bright side no more worrying whether my wife will be laid off. Everyone other than management gone at the end of the month and company in wind-down mode.
"The smart companies are firing everybody but top management."
Some of the stupid ones too rich. My wife's biotech is getting rid of everyone except upper management. I wonder who's gonna run their lab, QC the results, attempt to sell the product.
A lot of smaller VC funded companies are simply milking the last few bucks before they wind down.
Actually I drew up this theory today.... Its called the
I'm different theory....
Lets admit it a lot of people a lot smart than we are were totally dupped. The only explaination I can come up with is they all held the belief that they were different... At a micro level you say I'm better than Joe, at a macro-micro level you say our company is better than the rest and at the macro level you say our industry wont feel the effects.....
that just doesn't work. nihiliststaringvaguely? huh? a true nihilist denies way more than the existence of values. i just like the ominous ring that comes off of the two words. i could always change my internet name to fuzzycuddlingpuppy.
OK folks. The salad days for CRblog residents & lurkers & all those doom-peddlers are over at least for the time being. Multimonth lows in the market are being set in this week. So folks enjoy as much as you can, Bear misery will be overwhelming.
Yeah yeah credit bust, financial calamity, blah blah blah
gaspwheeze Ok, ok, gentlemen, just... just stay calm. These Hoopajoops we've invested in, that we've poured our country's bank reserves into... they're still salvageable. We can still recover... so long as we do NOT under ANY CIRCUMSTANCES let ANYONE put a hoopajoop up for sale on the open market. All we gotta do is... find some kind of new instrument that is EXTREMELY profitable, and invest twice as much on that, maybe by loaning money to each other, and then we can take those returns and make up for the losses on the Hoopajoop portfolio... Alright, now, we've got these real financial wizards, they've figured out a way out of this mess for a modest transaction fee... they're selling, what is it, Hoopajoopajoops... guaranteed to make up for the money we've lost so far... how much money can we put in these... Frank, what do we have for reserves... 10 Hoopajoops? Have they been put on the market yet? No? Ok, they're still worth... what do our models say... uhh 10 billion. No, make it 20. We'll leverage these worthless Hoopajoops into Hooopajoopajoops immediately... these borrowing costs are outrageous! Let's get the fed to backstop it... Threaten to go bankrupt or retire!
I hate to break it to you, but I have submitted business patents on Level 4 and Level 5 assets. So, a substantial license fee would be due to Supernova Inc. Plus Gillette will owe me for the 6 bladed razor.
I don't know if anybody else has noticed it already, but the guy in the "New Deal or Raw Deal" ad below is propped up on the wall of the storefront so he can sleep standing up. It's a good pose because it fends off possible thieves and shopkeepers aren't chasing you away for sleeping on the sidewalk. Kinda creeps me out.
CR - funny on the pig, but seriously the Asia markets link was totally bogus.
You link to Nikki one-day, which rose a bit. An uncritical reader might have thought that was all terribly neat and positive without scanning back to the 6 month or yearly chart which show equities are completely skrood.
C'mon. We need accuracy to do our jobs, and respect your great site.
Ok kids, I'm pretty new to this field ... but you're saying don't worry about the black swan but ... be very concerned about the pink pig! LOL. Someone needs write a book! Awesome graph and graphic, as usual
The techinician talk about support @680, 620... I think it's bullshit here. How can levels set over a decade ago be supportive. Those shares traded at that level have changed hands 100000000X by now so there should be no trading memory of those levels. Am I insane to see it that way?
"The state has to take care of Hypo Real Estate..."
86th and Lexington, upper East side of Manhattan. They started building a glass tower about 5 years ago. The Lucida Luxury Condominium - NY's 1st LEED Certified Condo | The Lucida "Luxury residences".For some reason they fell behind another tower, on 3rd a block away, and another on 2nd. Floor to ceiling glass windows, no view except bricks. 86 and Lex is one of the busiest express subway stops, maybe in the world. The other two have sold a few units, I believe, but no retail tenants. In fact, Circuit City left a big hole down the block. Someone told me interest rate goes up as soon as they begin selling.
HYPO. Well, until the 60's it was a German neighborhood. Come to think of it, I took tumbling class at the Turn Verein at the exact location of the Lucida. Hypo will be doing backflips trying to salvage this fiasco.
Looks like Shanghai is starting to show the standard bear-market pattern. 6 months or so ago when the first stimulus package was announced the market closed up near 10%. Now the economy is recovering and a new massive bailout package and up only 2.5%?
"Christ on a stick, even Gawker is doing this and shitting Ayn Rand."
They are doing a pretty good job of bashing the true believers too. What is next? My Grandma's knitting circle bitching about what a toad Greenspan is?
Not to be flip, but what other mechanism would control inflation? No one ever mentions this. That was the main reason for establishing the Fed in the first place, was it not? Has the mandate changed? They seem to have done that, at least.
I can confirm that all the Bloomberg charts of the day are available on the terminal. Let me know which exact one you wanted looked up and I'll take a screenshot and post/email it
Because, dear C, someone (ahem) put Choire Sicha on the Kasriel/Setser axis two years ago. They're probably as current on all this as anyone here and have zillions of contacts in media and finance (and at all levels).
re: Galt's post (KD and Galt tonight, cheery guys, I know)
Ok, I'm no TA expert, but is there a point when 'support' and 'resistance' gives way to 'fark the farking thing fell through the floor' and 'maybe we should call some guys from Chernobyl.'
I have found that most people I know are fairly complacent about this stock market crash...let's not call it a correction. I would think there would be more panic/worry, when I mention it, they just say, "yeah, it's down". It's like no one, except us on these blogs, really care. I don't think they get the anormity of a 12 year correction.... I am in mostly cash. If I were them, I just wouldn't be that calm. I find the complacency interesting...what gives.
I was discussing the market with a co-worker who's still fully invested and continues to invest via his 401k. He mentioned that the market may not come back in 5 years, but in 40 years it should turn around.
If the market doesn't turn around over the next 30 years than nothing matters anyways and our society will be irrevocably changed to the point that those 401k contributions wont matter either way
I think someone needs to cover this story in a mass media way. Oprah has actually done a story on tent cities, how the crisis is affecting people, etc. But, the "massive destruction of wealth" stories seem to be on blogs, finance sites, etc. Not sure if mainstream is truly getting the story....
Mexican opposition lawmakers plan to propose a bill that may force Citigroup Inc. to give up control of Grupo Financiero Banamex SA after the U.S. government said it will take a 36 percent stake in the New York-based company.
Under the draft published today in the official Senate gazette, if a foreign government has a stake in a foreign company that owns a Mexican bank, the foreign firm would have to reduce its ownership in the Mexican bank to less than 50 percent within 30 days. Senators from the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, plan to propose the bill.
The proposal would modify Mexico’s banking law, which already prohibits foreign governments from owning or having a stake in banks that operate in Mexico, such as Banamex, which Citigroup bought for $12.5 billion in 2001. The U.S. government, which has channeled $45 billion into Citigroup, agreed to a third rescue on Feb. 27 that will give it a 36 percent stake.
Local services face a new wave of privatisation across England as a Conservative council leads moves to put contracts worth billions of pounds out to private tender. . .
Council leaders argue that, with severe restrictions on public spending likely over the next three years, every effort has to be made to find savings. An incoming Tory government may cut budgets still more severely to avoid council tax rises.
privatize this, nationalize that. up is down, down is up. They really are making things up as they go along...
On the contrary, I see a great deal of panic. At work. People running around with their hair on fire, freaking out about layoffs, evaluations, growing their business, scrutinizing slacker co-workers, pointing fingers and shifting blame to cover their own ass.
"In a sign that pension funds and other institutional investors are about to get clobbered by losses in commercial real estate, Morgan Stanley told investors to expect as much as a 60% fourth-quarter write-down on the equity in a marquee $8.8 billion real-estate fund, according to a letter reviewed by The Wall Street Journal."
"Not to be flip, but what other mechanism would control inflation? No one ever mentions this. That was the main reason for establishing the Fed in the first place, was it not? Has the mandate changed? They seem to have done that, at least."
The Fed doesn't set rates, they follow the market. They don't set it on the way down or on the way up. When they want to appear to be reigning in inflation they put in place an "inflation fighting FED leader"; same to fight deflation.
Bernie Sanders yelled at BB today about AIG. "Why won't you tell us who the counterparties are." Even Bloomberg covered it. The Z word came out and was used in ordinary discussion.
What do you expect from a socialist? Never happy with the world's most dynamically engineered financial system, always talking about labor, blah, blah, blah.
Socialists are simply incapable of understanding, much less accepting, that capitalism benefits the little people, the ones who depend on whatever it is that trickles down from their betters.
"Toyota, the world's biggest carmaker, is considering plans to put its European workforce on a three-day week as it forecasts the biggest slump in car sales for 35 years.
Senior executives at the annual Geneva motor show, which opened today, forecast overall European sales will collapse by 30% this year to 15m cars and vans, bottoming out later this year. Recovery will take three or four years."
Toyota employs 22,000 in Europe.
on a positive note, I did read a couple of articles quoting several college officials stating that they can not raise tuition; the budget cuts have to come from faculty and staff. On the other hand, these were small private colleges were tuition alone was $40K+.
"the budget cuts have to come from faculty and staff. On the other hand, these were small private colleges were tuition alone was $40K+."
The HELOC ATM is closed. College tuition is in for some deflationary pig-tail. Illegal aliens are in for some hard times as Johnny HS Grad takes a job, any job while living at home with ma and pa. It will start small at the pricey private schools first, but then get rolling full tilt at the state colleges as even tenure will not save Professors ass.
(AP) Greeley, CO - Police arrested Arvil McRanty, owner of the "Daily Bail" website for engaging in terrorism and foul language. McRanty, a well-known interner spammer,is suspected of creating, producing and airing the popular "#*(@(#$ Government Ranter" youtube videos calling for a "tax march" on Washington, D.C. In other news, Gordy McGerbil was shot down by D.C. police as he marched towards the Senate building holding what appeared to be a "Tax March" protest sign. Police insist that they had reason to believe that McGerbil's sign contained a weapon of mass destruction.
Is the fractional reserve function unrelated to the inflation control function?
The reserve ratio is one of the tools with which the Fed controls the money supply. Dunno how often they use it though. I know that the PBC jacked their reserve ratio up to ~17% last year.
Obviously, it's a complex subject. My whole point is that while the Fed seems to be focus of ire, that is no reason to abolish it, root and branch. It seems to be an ideological bugbear to many, who perhaps don't understand the full implication of what the are saying. To watch an internet video, be swayed, and pronounce, "The Fed! The Fed must go!", seems childish, at the least.
To be childish is not such a bad thing. Children don't form their opinions on pre-existing ideologies, they form their opinions from curiosity and experimentation. It's the adults that are so fixated on broken ways because they are too afraid of disproving themselves and damaging their egos.
I'm definitely not afraid of changing my opinion, and my ego is well in check. I just remember inflation getting completely out of hand back in the late '70's, and Volcker stepping in and rather heavy-handedly bringing it back under control. I didn't see the banks leading the way. Why do we think so highly of him to this day as a take-charge kinda guy?
Just so you know, I wasn't accusing you of being either. It was just a general observation from a Psychology major =]
As for Volcker specifically...I have no idea I wasn't even alive in that era. But back to the Federal Reserve interesting thing, if you look at this graph you will clearly see that the Fed's Target rate follows the EFFECTIVE rate, not the other way around:
"They're ruining the U.S. economy, they're ruining the U.S. government, they're ruining the U.S. central bank and they're ruining the U.S. dollar...the destruction of New York as a financial center and the destruction of America as the world's most powerful country"
I love these CNBC idiots who always try to talk the guests into the con; too bad they didn't ask him for a stock tip this time. Rogers is funny, he gave them a tip anyway.
"Mark, you should become a farmer, that's where the future is."
I doubt Jim Rogers has done an honest day's work since he left college. He's a gangster with a bow tie. Just because he is smarter than the rest of his colleagues doesn't make him any better. He's in Asia to feast off the labor of Chinese workers, like he did with workers in the West.
I hope that you aren't actually attracted to a simpleton like this?
Did he actually suggest a solution or was he simply complaining about just about everything but especially his own fate? If primitive rants like these are attractive to folks on CR then we are in for a hell of a tough ride down.
I guarantee that there will be many more who won't complain about their taxes but about having little to eat. If they rant and rave like this fellow and get to march with their pitchforks then it will really get interesting. People like this guy won’t show their faces at that point.
my point was merely that he sounds like a collection of ideas floating around here... believe me i'm one of the more moderate ones..... i.e. i've only recently become worried....
I don't think you get it. Obama's people are assuming in their analysis that this is just another recession, and using the history of past recessions to come up with an estimate of the time to recovery.
This is not a normal recession. It is THE AFTERMATH OF A FINANCIAL CRISIS, a very different pathology. As Reinhart and Rogoff correctly point out, the recovery time is YEARS, not MONTHS.
i was being snarky... i'm slowly moving in to you're camp.... i've always been a slow mover, good instincts but it doesnt help... perhaps i should work on that....
Sorry, but Conjure and I just discovered this only a few hours ago. It explains completely a major disconnect in how Obama's people are dealing with this problem.
We are MIGHTILY screwed. They fail to understand that, unlike a recession, the system WILL NOT return to equilibrium of its own accord. Their analysis ASSUMES that it will.
I see your point. What if this happens. They pump so much that it works for 3-5 years. Does the dollar have another dance? Can the populous have another affair with a different asset or source of wealth? I dont see much but I'm kinda new at all this!
The recovery won't occur as forecast. The White House will say something like, "Gee, Macroeconomic Advisers and the Blue Chips got it wrong too, so don't beat up on us."
Fact is, they don't see this crisis for what it really is. They don't see that the economy WILL NOT return to equilibrium with truly massive intervention.
So, as Guest said, I guess they don't want to tell the truth, they want to drag it out and keep going back for more and more money, so they may be knowingly underestimating what's required.
It may be that Obama has insufficient balls to meet this thing head on and tell the truth. He may think the American people can't handle it.
"The voting record of the American people seems to say quite
unequivocally that the electorate indeed cannot handle
the truth."
One would have to assume that it is political suicide to tell the electorate anything but what they want to hear. Which is probably one reason why government economic forecasts are so rosy and why Dr. Doom and The Black Swan are treated so poorly on CNBC.
NPR is starting to give these guys some real air time though.
I noticed immediately that they avoided any and all reference to the Great Depression. It obviously doesn't fit in with their rosy imaginary worldview.
OK, then you know what that means. You've got Japan, dejavu all over again, except this time it's the global economy going down the tubes, not just Japan.
They MUST understand - they aren't that dense. Which means that they're lying. Later this year, we'll get a "it's worse than we predicted" speech and another taxpayer giveaway - followed by another, etc.
This is an extremely depressing discovery for me and I appreciate the discussion here.
It's pretty obvious that the Obama Administration isn't facing the music. They're approaching this problem as little more than an average recession, not as an event that prevents the system from returning to equilibrium. So, their scorecard is already several innings behind the game.
As Reinhart and Rogoff point out, we're probably going to end up in a tax trap, as small changes in GDP lead to large changes in tax revenue. This will lead to absolutely unprecedented borrowing, but from whom will we borrow when the rest of the world is also descending into depression?
I don't know - the guys in Bernanke's, Krugman's, Geithner's league are all smart enough not to be swayed by politics when it comes to numbers. And if they aren't they are at least smart enough to engage people who can account for "optimism bias" and "strategic misrepresentation" when developing such a crucial plan.
Speed, if it's a lie why would they repeat history and create zombie banks?
Consider their current performance: not too good. I accept the possibility that it could be a lie, but you must accept the possibility that they don't know.
Occam's Razor says it's the latter, so does their past and current performance.
It's both, guys. They don't know, for all the triple shifting of Treasury and Fed economists, but they're also trying to tamp down market panic while groups of forecasters kitchen sink the future based on the past. This is a problem. There is a serious professional lacuna in optimism bias and regression to mean. Bit like an economics fairy story. Might well be true in the long run, but it doesn't tell you how and why the regression happens. Don't get me started on Karl Popper.
This is why I think the Four Bad Bears chart is only useful for historical comparison. It's in no way predictive at all, except for chartists who are robotrading their way through the compression.
I do not think the instruments being applied are sufficient to address the problem. I've said this many times on this board, but one cannot fix a problem of solvency by hosing liquidity at it.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said the deposit insurance fund could dry up amid a surge in bank failures, as she responded to an industry outcry against new fees approved by the agency. ...
Can someone get these /gov/tards a fucking email account that the rest of the world can send them information at so that they don't sound totally stupid issuing 'news flashes' 6 months (or more) after everyone else has already figured things out.
From the white house economic projections link mp just posted:
"The short-term forecasts are in fact less important to the budget projections than the long-term forecasts."
Something seems so very, very wrong with taking this approach. I was under the impression that the longer you look out, the cloudier the forecasts become. So why is the administration placing more importance on longer-term forecasts?
They missed 4Q2008 GDP by almost 100% for Christ's sake. And that's in the PAST!
Volcker let rates simmer up, topping at 18%. It killed all the saving and loans. It would kill any pigman on the short end of 6% fixed, and I can't wait.
You'd rather a five year at the same yield with no where to go down or perhaps a couple of shares in C, perfered of course... Be fortunate for growth at all... At least for now. You'll also enjoy the liquidity...
Well, I bit the bullet and went long junk bonds today, Ford, Hertz, some beauties. CCC-. Just doing my part. Naturally, I am long puts. The living must eat the zombies' brains.
Volcker let rates simmer up, topping at 18%. It killed all the saving and loans. It would kill any pigman on the short end of 6% fixed, and I can't wait.
Have you seen the % of our debt that is financed at the short end? 18% would not only kill the pigmen, but also Uncle Sam.
Uncle Sam must tax a bit higher for a while. Maybe he can print a little and stick some on China. Savers will be happy lending at the new rates. Productive workers/earners can afford a house at the new prices. As long as the big 3 keep up the 200 year bumper (rice aint too shabby either) it really won't be so bad. 18% never bothered me, as I hate debt. We have all the shelter built already. Cut off the Fed spigot, kill the borrow short lend long idiots who missed the first lesson in banking. I'll gladly take the hit on my junk bonds, heheheh.
otishertz glad you didnt bounce for good.... more and more people are chanting the same thing from different angles... unfortunately they are all point towards the same thing....
my point was merely that he sounds like a collection of ideas floating around here... believe me i'm one of the more moderate ones..... i.e. i've only recently become worried....
I think it is good to worried. There is every reason to be worried. However, ranting without proposing constructive solutions and at the same time not admitting the complexity of the problem, is utterly unhelpful and, in fact, destructive IMO.
Proposing solutions without understanding the complexity of the problem is the most destructive of all. And that is what this administration (as a continuation of the past one) is doing on a massive scale.
We're so far out of the comfort zone that losses are cascading over the prudent operating range of businesses and individuals. It's not that the losses can be prevented, but that the process in which they are occurring is less than optimal by taking too long, acting manic depressive (and eventually overshooting)
Before long you won't even be able to make money trying to go short the market. For now, the will to believe or to ignore personal mistakes prevails -- but once that stubbornness is bled dry, no more
We're going to need a rebuild once the economy seizes or throws a rod (Central Banker's will depending). Should have steadily made our way to the nearest garage instead of racing against our past performance.
Real problem is that with modern agriculture and trade, there are many countries that are far from self-sufficient and are dependent on a high specialization of trade due to labor surpluses & environmental deficiencies
Most countries just do not have the natural resources required to be self-sufficient. It's not the lack of will, it's just a result of unfortunate geographical location.
That's just it. So much land has been deforested, slashed + burned, and heavily farmed or mined -- that land needs time to reforest, and recover. Look at Haiti, once the environmental destruction crosses a certain threshold it becomes a trap that engenders war and division. The environment doesn't recover until the people leave the land because while they are there they are forced to scavenge for survival.
They need food imports just to support their population in the immediate term, and without the system of high level trade it will be difficult to find supplies on bartering terms based on the distribution of who has what.
Look at a year ago when countries were scrambling for rice or corn in the marginal artificial scarcity that drew the price towards User Price instead of Producer or Market price. Since then a number of droughts have become more serious
It is a sad tale. The native North Americans knew about the 3 sisters and probably had some level of memory of when they hunted the large mammals to extinction. They coexisted with the buffalo and the whale, but we were determined to slash and burn. I still believe we are salvageable and will learn from the dustbowl. True, we don't make that much here in the big city but the air and water are much cleaner than when I grew up. And we still have people willing to live in a tree and endure the rants of Limbaughs and Santellis to make a point.
Assuming Banker Ninja Be Men and Nighttime Theory hit the TURBO button on the money creation computer at the Fed to force the issue, implicit bankruptcy full reset... than I completely agree
absent a global bad event like disease, starvation.... I believe the US will be on a much different footing, but have much healthier growth post-reset
The main deficiency I see is oil, but if Japan-style efficiency was adopted overnight the US could be self-sufficient for now. But main oil exporting nations are still largely beholden client states one way or another, so they can't exactly afford to hoard and competition for leaseholders will come down to who can provide steady food supply
I like the Great Liquidation sale. Invite China since they have all our dollars and much of our debt. China, we have many skyscrapers here in the big Apple. Rockefeller Center, the Chrysler building, the GM building. Much cachet. Japanese and Arabs have been proud owners.
One hush hush item about the rents, though. We pay in $, and when inflation hits we bring out the dusty old Rent Control reg's. (We had commercial control once). Socialize this!
Oh, forgot. Solar, wind and wave are really coming and it's good that we get off oil anyway. Sorry EHP I focus on the US. The world can have my single currency, as a start.
yogi,
Oil will always be valuable. It is simply a very useful substance. Huge energy density, relatively non-volatile, easily stored or transported...
All that renewable and electric stuff really benefits me indirectly as an electrical engineer, and I'm a big fan of the environment... BUT the big hurdle is storing that electricity efficiently, and one I'm realistic about
EHP, you mentioned a while ago you were interested in happenings in the gold market. Here is another one from the same poster on VOY:
Request I received today -- ROAN, 09:39:44 03/03/09 Tue
Gold Bullion – We have a buyer looking to buy gold bullion. Their requirements are as follows:
a. This has to be done as a private sales between two private parties.
b. The Buyer has given us partial proof of fund (a bank statement of USD500 million from Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong) so that we can show the seller that the buyer is real and has the capability to buy. This is only partial proof of fund because the buyer does not know how much gold bullion the seller has. They just want to show a large amount of dollars as partial proof so that we can make progress with the seller.
c. In exchange of a copy of the bank statement as partial proof of fund, the buyer expects the seller to provide a copy of the SKR (storage receipt) or other documents that can prove the existence of the gold bullion. This is a key requirement. The buyer will not sign anything until they have seen and verified the SKR or other documents that prove the existence of the gold. Once the seller can show the SKR and the SKR is verified to be real, the buyer will transfer the fund needed and close the deal within 48 hours.
d. The nett discount must be at least 7%. The best discount structure would be Gross 10%, Nett 7%, with the 3% difference as commission to be shared among all intermediaries, including buyer.
e. Minimum quantity must be 100MT (Metric Tonne). The buyer has not stated the maximum quantity they will buy but we think they will probably buy up to 1,000 MT.
I vouch for the poster, I have observed him for years. A very knowledgeable gold market insider. The only question is if the buyer is trying to pull something.
i'm prone to go commando but maybe a ten minute window to edit would reduce correction posts enough to make it worthwhile. if the window was short enough it would prevent most people from modifying their intent
Ah, the convexity pig returns.
ROTFL.
Rob Dawg,
You will be shocked to hear this news:
Hidden Pension Fiasco May Foment Another $1 Trillion Bailout - Bloomberg.com
Shocked. I couldn't be more shocked if I had dared touch the third rail of urban subsidies. Thank you.
Lucky that the auto industry has handled their pensions in such an admirable fashion, isn't it?
can we see the right side of the pig (in full) - i wander where the line is going to stop dropping...
On the 40 year SPX graph there may not be a right side, but a drop to 450 would outline a nice mortgage pig and establish the newly discovered 'M' pattern.
Thanks Tanta. Tanta Lives! That's just too funny.
Thanks Tanta. Tanta Lives! That's just too funny. Tanta is like Santa.
ROTHFLOL!!!!
i've not laughed this hard for a while!!!
Best
Post
Ever
Carried over from prior thread:
No bail outs for eastern europe [meaning no bail out for western european banks]
I don't think that this is the case. If you look at this post where I quickly translated this Spiegel article thats says:
... Merkel went against the thrust of Baden-Württemberg's Minister President Günther Oettinger (CDU) to let the wounded HRE go insolvent. The reasoning: It has been internationally agreed that no more banks that could topple others would be allowed to go bankrupt. The state has to take care of Hypo Real Estate. Another collapse such as the one of U.S. bank Lehman Brothers has to be prevented. ...
This is one of the most significant quotes IMO in the past few months and it hasn't attracted a lot of attention. I don't know why. There must be a major agreement somewhere...
Remember that G-20 meeting back in November or December....I'm sure they made this agreement then.
“Remember that G-20 meeting back in November or December....I'm sure they made this agreement then.
I agree. However, such an agreement should have made the news in the States as well. It has such far reaching implications.
In fact, it would explain many of the recent actions in Washington. It really seems to have been hushed up, likely for political reasons, except for that Merkel quote.
Silk purses for everybody!
T-shirt please! This is brilliant.
too funny
Quick, slap that pig. Slap it down!
this link is from lee county, fl property appraisers office. at the bottom is the sale price of 150K with 390k tax assessment. this is a deep usable canal front home 10 minutes to the gulf. look at the sale price ten years ago.
wow
Lee County Property Appraiser - Online Parcel Inquiry
with all do respect this location is infested with Pythons (discarded 'pets')and Monitor Lizards (baby Raptors a la Jurassic Park)
Pretty much mirrors the round-trip of my small San Diego house, from $240K (1998) to $650K to (likely) $300K now.
Wish I had the canal, though!
And I thought it looked like a pair of tits...
I thought this wasn't a stock blog?
Although the Nose Support around 650 looks pretty strong.
"snout support" does in fact look strong - invest in truffles!
That is awesome!
What pulled the futures out of the tank ?
Wall Street likes the mortgage pig chart pattern, obviously.
check it at the end of the commercial construction boom below... i see it everwhere!
Obama said to buy stocks
All jokes aside I think we close above 800 this year despite the failures of this and the previous administration to do what must be done. Oh course this MEANS NOTHING for retirees, Pension funds, and the American people in general. Good night and Give Up...
800 on the dow?
Now that we know P stands for Pig, what does the S stand for?
How 'bout swine?
.............yeah , how about that?..........
Louise Yamada believe that next stop for SP500 is 600 level. See her video on yesterday's CNBC.
She's pretty good. I'll bet she commands quite a substantial fee for her analysis, given how accurate she's been.
She is one of the very few on that show whose forecasts have been pretty accurate.
That is the best technical analysis I have seen in quite awhile.
Serious, how will the past ten year effect investors going forward? Will they expect bubbles making markets more volatile, something we are seeing already? Or will they just refuse to carry risk and leverage, as happened after the last Depression?
What about houses? I predict a second bubble in houses; look what happened to stocks.
My husband is younger than I am. He is 33 and I am 48. After this debacle, he says he will never invest in the stock market (or should I say "scam market")
Cradle Robber!
because investing in (holding) US dollars isn't a potential scam?
Apparently you are looking for the pig's 3rd ear? Say hi to Cramer for me, Kudlow.
perfect! I agree about the t-shirt.
I'm glad I'm not the only person who saw that...
From Deliverance
"Squeal like a pig."
The pigs have lost and may keep on losing. So is it possible for the derivative liabilities in an interconnected system amongst all the financial entities to owe more than the value of all worldwide assets. I presume someone gets paid when all the derivatives explode, so is it the system that remains is just the last liquid financial entity standing. Who is that? US government?
Simon Johnson On Bank Bailout Plan : NPR
It shouldn't have been possible, but there was a 0 day bug in the system...
Allowing banks to sell loans to non-regulated entities opened up an exploit in the fractional reserve banking system. This allowed the banking system, through the individual banks, to generate as many loans as they could find borrowers for, and purchasers of. The bank just sits in the middle of this and takes in the fees.
Consequently, if you somehow today collapsed all the commercial bank debt on to all the commercial bank deposits, instead of being left with the reserve amount as the original deposit - you would be left with an outstanding amount of debt (about $3 trillion just for the USA), and no corresponding deposit money to pay it off.
I wrote a paper on this if anybody is interested.
-- w
Haven't had a good laugh like this for a while
Her testiness must having a good laugh in the great beyond...
OK folks. The salad days for CRblog residents & lurkers & all those doom-peddlers are over at least for the time being. Multimonth lows in the market are being set in this week. So folks enjoy as much as you can, Bear misery will be overwhelming.
Yeah yeah credit bust, financial calamity, blah blah blah
Good luck to you. There are a billion shoes left to fall out of the closet, could be drip drip drip or 1 massive crash. Wouldn't want to be long here. Jobs on Friday. 750 loss Priced in ?
Layoffs Are Cooling Down, At Least For Now
Layoffs Are Cooling Down, At Least For Now - Forbes.com
Well, not in terms of what the UE claims figures are going to reflect ove rthe next month or so. A crapload of firings in Dec, Jan & Feb that were at levels governed by the WARN act. They are still on the payroll and the shift to state claims will spike weekly claims hard.
"Layoffs Are Cooling Down, At Least For Now"
I LOLed!
seriously? you believe this crap? layoffs where i see them will be accelerating in the late spring and early summer, if not sooner as some employers fiscal year runs july to july.
"Layoffs Are Cooling Down, At Least For Now"
We're in the eye of the storm?
"Multimonth lows in the market are being set in this week."
Multi-MONTH lows? That is a lot of months in that multi...
that is hilarious! now when the chart pattern starts to look like jesus that will not be funny at all. the pig is a riot though.
suddenly the pig looks sorta mean. those beady black eyes gazing into my soul...
GE has huge exposure to Eastern Europe.
Link?
New Zealand is bracing for its worst recession on record and credit ratings firm Standard & Poor's has warned that the country's sovereign AA plus rating is at risk of a downgrade if fiscal imbalances are not addressed.
SCENARIOS-New Zealand faces risk of credit rating cuts
| Reuters
Sucking them into the black hole. Just like shooting fish in a barrel.
If things get too bad the kiwis can always become part of Australia - under the Australian constitution New Zealand has the right to join Australia, although knowing most kiwis they would rather eat their own children than become Australian
Japan hasn't had a lost decade, it's lost a generation.
..............i already said that .....check out last posting ...............
on the bright side no more worrying whether my wife will be laid off. Everyone other than management gone at the end of the month and company in wind-down mode.
Whewww, the suspense was killing me.
Geithner/turbo-tax? Yer killin' me!
Now I feel like a jerk. Let me guess. You're wife is in management?
Sorry to hear that. Take care.
The smart companies are firing everybody but top management.
How is that smart? I don't get it.
Rich, that makes sense, and now the dumb companies should fire everyone in top management.
"The smart companies are firing everybody but top management."
Some of the stupid ones too rich. My wife's biotech is getting rid of everyone except upper management. I wonder who's gonna run their lab, QC the results, attempt to sell the product.
A lot of smaller VC funded companies are simply milking the last few bucks before they wind down.
A lot of smaller VC funded companies are simply milking the last few bucks before they wind down.
They learned the lessons from dotbomb very well... get what you can then be gone. VC = Money Furnace.
Brother can you spare a Phase I. VC Biotech companies, almost without fail are scams. Yuppie Welfare writ large.
poic did you make it thru today? some one posted it could be trouble....
sorry nades, what sort of trouble?
I'm still here, only have a bit of USO and SRS left.
someone said you might get the let go...
sounds like you're still around and kicking... sorry to hear about your wife tho...
based on what you've said i bet shes a worker... she'll be fine!
Oh I'm fine as long as the DOW stays above 7500.
Bwahahaha!!
At the moment no more rumors of further layoffs. But it's just a matter of time in my opinion.
our revenues are down 30 percent this year (projected)
last year was our best year ever....
we had a 10% reduction in forces... a rif if you will...
they think next year will better...
commercial construction.... LOL......
...........
ewww, sorry to hear.
Actually I drew up this theory today.... Its called the
I'm different theory....
Lets admit it a lot of people a lot smart than we are were totally dupped. The only explaination I can come up with is they all held the belief that they were different... At a micro level you say I'm better than Joe, at a macro-micro level you say our company is better than the rest and at the macro level you say our industry wont feel the effects.....
Are we all really all that different?
............
LOL - reminds me of my second wife's tits -
They were jagged?
Dude, you have no idea!
Great Post.
Tanta Vive.
Mortgage Pig downside target looks like a goose egg
Fear not the black swan.
The EU has a cunning plan, but they're keeping it hush hush.
The article requested is no longer available.
Adjust a bit and it can look closer to the horned one, Ol' Nick.
sorry if this was already posted but i know a lot of people here love bad news for vegas so here ya go
Expired
saw it over at jesse's
Nihilists should never sneer. It implies that they're making a value judgment. A true nihilist just has a vague stare.
that just doesn't work. nihiliststaringvaguely? huh? a true nihilist denies way more than the existence of values. i just like the ominous ring that comes off of the two words. i could always change my internet name to fuzzycuddlingpuppy.
I kinda like "cuddlynihilist"
or "cunninglinguist"
Man, those Cali HELOC ATMs closing down, sure are bad news. It sure will be nice to go to Vegas and be treated like a customer again.
o surprise here..thanks!
You need to roll that chart out further. In the pig's left hand he is holding a copy of "The Grapes of Wrath."
He'll be standing on it.
Let's just pray the chart stay on the mortgage pigz haed and shoulder, and does'nt stray sout to it's quirly q tail, aka the spiral
OK folks. The salad days for CRblog residents & lurkers & all those doom-peddlers are over at least for the time being. Multimonth lows in the market are being set in this week. So folks enjoy as much as you can, Bear misery will be overwhelming.
Yeah yeah credit bust, financial calamity, blah blah blah
gasp wheeze Ok, ok, gentlemen, just... just stay calm. These Hoopajoops we've invested in, that we've poured our country's bank reserves into... they're still salvageable. We can still recover... so long as we do NOT under ANY CIRCUMSTANCES let ANYONE put a hoopajoop up for sale on the open market. All we gotta do is... find some kind of new instrument that is EXTREMELY profitable, and invest twice as much on that, maybe by loaning money to each other, and then we can take those returns and make up for the losses on the Hoopajoop portfolio... Alright, now, we've got these real financial wizards, they've figured out a way out of this mess for a modest transaction fee... they're selling, what is it, Hoopajoopajoops... guaranteed to make up for the money we've lost so far... how much money can we put in these... Frank, what do we have for reserves... 10 Hoopajoops? Have they been put on the market yet? No? Ok, they're still worth... what do our models say... uhh 10 billion. No, make it 20. We'll leverage these worthless Hoopajoops into Hooopajoopajoops immediately... these borrowing costs are outrageous! Let's get the fed to backstop it... Threaten to go bankrupt or retire!
"Hooopajoopajoops"
I hate to break it to you, but I have submitted business patents on Level 4 and Level 5 assets. So, a substantial license fee would be due to Supernova Inc. Plus Gillette will owe me for the 6 bladed razor.
This one goes to eleven! WAAHHOOO ! ! !
How about Frisbees? Can we sell them?
Best laugh I've had in many, many days. Awesome!
Market tested, and Tanta approved.
Many people have asked, "How will this end?" Now we know the answer: when we pass through the loops of his cute little curly tail!
The question is, can we make a silk purse from the pig's ears?
I don't know if anybody else has noticed it already, but the guy in the "New Deal or Raw Deal" ad below is propped up on the wall of the storefront so he can sleep standing up. It's a good pose because it fends off possible thieves and shopkeepers aren't chasing you away for sleeping on the sidewalk. Kinda creeps me out.
Look closer. It's...it's....Geithner!
The Pig's™ eyes follow you. There's no sleeping now.
Bhahahhahaha&!! Coinsidence? I think not...
"when we pass through the loops of his cute little curly tail!"
Intestinal fortitude will a-sausage our fears.
"Honda Motor Co., suffering from a 38 percent plunge in U.S. auto sales in February, may ask to borrow money from Japan’s government to lend to U.S. car buyers."
Honda, Mazda May Apply for Japanese Government Loans (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
"Honda Motor Co., suffering from a 38 percent plunge in U.S. auto sales in February, may ask to borrow money from Japan’s government to lend to U.S. car buyers."
Honda, Mazda May Apply for Japanese Government Loans (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Costs less than manipulating the JPY:USD 'not a peg' peg.
Terrific! That is some pig, and I am humbled. Tanta's radiance shines on.
Ha!
Bravo!!!!
I just hope the government isn't in on this plan:
Rosemary's Baby
YouTube - Rosemary's Baby (1968)
tranches of laphroaig says:
Today, 6:42:30 PM
“Quick, slap that pig. Slap it down!
Here's your thread music....
I mean This
Jeebus, the blonde toddler spinning the brain looks like my kid.
Wow.
C
Ohhh yeaah.
"Look closer. It's...it's....Geithner!"
Can't be Geithner. That pig looks...
taxed.
CR - funny on the pig, but seriously the Asia markets link was totally bogus.
You link to Nikki one-day, which rose a bit. An uncritical reader might have thought that was all terribly neat and positive without scanning back to the 6 month or yearly chart which show equities are completely skrood.
C'mon. We need accuracy to do our jobs, and respect your great site.
C
.........chinese stimulus plan works pretty well.........
- Bloomberg.com
........plus Chinese gov't will anounnce brand new juicy 2nd stimulus package........
Keynesian Communists. Go figure.
Ok kids, I'm pretty new to this field ... but you're saying don't worry about the black swan but ... be very concerned about the pink pig! LOL. Someone needs write a book! Awesome graph and graphic, as usual
The techinician talk about support @680, 620... I think it's bullshit here. How can levels set over a decade ago be supportive. Those shares traded at that level have changed hands 100000000X by now so there should be no trading memory of those levels. Am I insane to see it that way?
TA is a joke...they have said this support level and that level and we blew them all out...
Well, I can see the argument for support going back 2-4yrs, but 12 ? Nonsense.
TA is a joke...they have said this support level and that level and we blew them all out...
All this talk about tit formations, T&A and now 'support' and I'm going to forever think of this as the famous 2009 S&P underwire formation...
If we have a down day tomorrow my god.
"Am I insane to see it that way?"
Doesn't your trading software remember your cost basis? Although I'm tempted to agree with you.
CR - the levity brings tears. Wishing you well. Wishing us hope.
"The state has to take care of Hypo Real Estate..."
86th and Lexington, upper East side of Manhattan. They started building a glass tower about 5 years ago. The Lucida Luxury Condominium - NY's 1st LEED Certified Condo | The Lucida "Luxury residences".For some reason they fell behind another tower, on 3rd a block away, and another on 2nd. Floor to ceiling glass windows, no view except bricks. 86 and Lex is one of the busiest express subway stops, maybe in the world. The other two have sold a few units, I believe, but no retail tenants. In fact, Circuit City left a big hole down the block. Someone told me interest rate goes up as soon as they begin selling.
HYPO. Well, until the 60's it was a German neighborhood. Come to think of it, I took tumbling class at the Turn Verein at the exact location of the Lucida. Hypo will be doing backflips trying to salvage this fiasco.
Thanks it's confusing.
I got there but it'll take me a while to learn the commands. I'm not a chatter.
Looks like Shanghai is starting to show the standard bear-market pattern. 6 months or so ago when the first stimulus package was announced the market closed up near 10%. Now the economy is recovering and a new massive bailout package and up only 2.5%?
The (tens of) millions of unemployed Chinese people would argue against their economy "recovering"
In a ht to Broward, I'm tempted to wear leather chaps.
Tanta would have loved it.
poic.v20 - bear rally only. Fundamentals are fkd. People can make money in that market, but generally only on volativity. It's going down.
C
/3/2009 10:19 PM ET Might China agree to consessions for GE buyout.
This is a complete fabricaion. Please, retrakt.
Christ on a stick, even Gawker is doing this and shitting Ayn Rand. I think we've hit a new level:
Bailouts Spike Atlas Shrugged Sales - Politics - Gawker
C
"Christ on a stick, even Gawker is doing this and shitting Ayn Rand."
They are doing a pretty good job of bashing the true believers too. What is next? My Grandma's knitting circle bitching about what a toad Greenspan is?
ok, I just watched "Debt as Money"... and while I knew some of the information seeing the whole picture and it's implications blew my mind a bit
At least I know now to ignore all politicians until they start talking about seizing the fed
Google Videos Error
Not to be flip, but what other mechanism would control inflation? No one ever mentions this. That was the main reason for establishing the Fed in the first place, was it not? Has the mandate changed? They seem to have done that, at least.
Actually they talk about that in the video quite a bit... and really... society existed before fractional reserve banking
Is the fractional reserve function unrelated to the inflation control function? If so, let's not toss the baby out with the bathwater.
That pig looks kinda weird...is that gasp a Zombie Pig?!?!?!?!?
Hyporeal estate is also still building luxury skyscrapers in dubai. They haven't stopped.
Comrade Kristina, if you're around
I can confirm that all the Bloomberg charts of the day are available on the terminal. Let me know which exact one you wanted looked up and I'll take a screenshot and post/email it
That was me about the Bloomberg charts of the day
Ugh, forgot to login again. California's cash crop will do that to ya.
And far out, how come Gawker breaks the Ritholz story???
Wiley Bails Out Bailout Nation - Bailout Nation - Gawker
C
Because, dear C, someone (ahem) put Choire Sicha on the Kasriel/Setser axis two years ago. They're probably as current on all this as anyone here and have zillions of contacts in media and finance (and at all levels).
re: Galt's post (KD and Galt tonight, cheery guys, I know)
Ok, I'm no TA expert, but is there a point when 'support' and 'resistance' gives way to 'fark the farking thing fell through the floor' and 'maybe we should call some guys from Chernobyl.'
The "let's pull out the control rods and see what happens" Chernobyl guys? I think Greenspan et al. were taking notes from them.
I have found that most people I know are fairly complacent about this stock market crash...let's not call it a correction. I would think there would be more panic/worry, when I mention it, they just say, "yeah, it's down". It's like no one, except us on these blogs, really care. I don't think they get the anormity of a 12 year correction.... I am in mostly cash. If I were them, I just wouldn't be that calm. I find the complacency interesting...what gives.
Instead of calm, try numb.
I was discussing the market with a co-worker who's still fully invested and continues to invest via his 401k. He mentioned that the market may not come back in 5 years, but in 40 years it should turn around.
If the market doesn't turn around over the next 30 years than nothing matters anyways and our society will be irrevocably changed to the point that those 401k contributions wont matter either way
This person has no idea what inflation is does he?
I think someone needs to cover this story in a mass media way. Oprah has actually done a story on tent cities, how the crisis is affecting people, etc. But, the "massive destruction of wealth" stories seem to be on blogs, finance sites, etc. Not sure if mainstream is truly getting the story....
Everyone I know is shittin' bricks. Of course, I print out CR's posts and tape them to my office door.
Markets are buying on Chinese stimulus rumors. Classic.
Underwire & cash crop. I need less of one & more of another.
So if all money creation requires debt creation and economic growth requires exponential debt growth.....
Am I crazy to now think our entire system of money is hopelessly broken and unsustainable?
"our entire system of money is hopelessly broken and unsustainable"
Correctomundo.
Smile. Tomorrow will be worse.
Yay! Comments are working again. That was my snarky comment about Chinese stimulus rumors... not that I should claim it.
So.... anyone have any thoughts on the GE rumors (thoughts) KD is kicking up? Here It Comes (GE) - The Market Ticker
The international run on Citi continues:
Mexican Lawmakers Target Citigroup’s Banamex in Bill
Mexican opposition lawmakers plan to propose a bill that may force Citigroup Inc. to give up control of Grupo Financiero Banamex SA after the U.S. government said it will take a 36 percent stake in the New York-based company.
Under the draft published today in the official Senate gazette, if a foreign government has a stake in a foreign company that owns a Mexican bank, the foreign firm would have to reduce its ownership in the Mexican bank to less than 50 percent within 30 days. Senators from the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, plan to propose the bill.
The proposal would modify Mexico’s banking law, which already prohibits foreign governments from owning or having a stake in banks that operate in Mexico, such as Banamex, which Citigroup bought for $12.5 billion in 2001. The U.S. government, which has channeled $45 billion into Citigroup, agreed to a third rescue on Feb. 27 that will give it a 36 percent stake.
Councils poised to hand running of care and education to private firms
Local services face a new wave of privatisation across England as a Conservative council leads moves to put contracts worth billions of pounds out to private tender. . .
Council leaders argue that, with severe restrictions on public spending likely over the next three years, every effort has to be made to find savings. An incoming Tory government may cut budgets still more severely to avoid council tax rises.
privatize this, nationalize that. up is down, down is up. They really are making things up as they go along...
"I would think there would be more panic/worry"
On the contrary, I see a great deal of panic. At work. People running around with their hair on fire, freaking out about layoffs, evaluations, growing their business, scrutinizing slacker co-workers, pointing fingers and shifting blame to cover their own ass.
That's why I quit.
More pension troubles...
"In a sign that pension funds and other institutional investors are about to get clobbered by losses in commercial real estate, Morgan Stanley told investors to expect as much as a 60% fourth-quarter write-down on the equity in a marquee $8.8 billion real-estate fund, according to a letter reviewed by The Wall Street Journal."
Hey I said that! I want the hat tip!
.....................
Off toppic:
WHICH ONE OF YOU IS THIS? ? ? ?? ? ? ?
ITS SOMEONE HERE! ! ! ! !
YouTube - stop rewarding failure we need long term tax relief
..................
He references every single thing that has been beat upon on this blog... perfect!
LOL!!! Priceless!
No seriously I want someone to OWN UP!!!!
g'nite... and remember to look for the pig everywhere...
.............
THis guy is so good and so right. I am forwarding this to my friends.
Check out his other videos. They're just as hysterical.
Not me. I smoke kreteks. And I'm a furriner.
C
that's me, except I don't have a southern accent.
This one is priceless :
YouTube - U.S. bankrupt
This guy is great. It makes it funnier that he has CNBC on in the background.
If it traces out the pig does that mean the stockmarket has bottomed? That it will go down further? That it will now go up? Please interpret for me.
"Not to be flip, but what other mechanism would control inflation? No one ever mentions this. That was the main reason for establishing the Fed in the first place, was it not? Has the mandate changed? They seem to have done that, at least."
The Fed doesn't set rates, they follow the market. They don't set it on the way down or on the way up. When they want to appear to be reigning in inflation they put in place an "inflation fighting FED leader"; same to fight deflation.
The Feds only job is to protect the interests of the creditor class. If it helps others, it is a side note.
The Fed absolutely sets rates. What was Volcker, Greenspan, and Bernanke doing?
The Fed sets an official TARGET rate, in response to the REAL rates that banks charge each other of their own accord.
It's only been 90 years since the Federal Reserve was established, and already people cannot imagine a world without it.
"Morgan Stanley told investors to expect as much as a 60% fourth-quarter write-down on the equity in a marquee $8.8 billion real-estate fund"
When do they report those Q4 results? I want to know when to get back into SRS....
Check Bloomberg...while you wait, here are 12 major Manhattan projects now stalled and unfinished...photos are great...
Curbed NY : The New York City neighborhoods and real estate blog
Bernie Sanders yelled at BB today about AIG. "Why won't you tell us who the counterparties are." Even Bloomberg covered it. The Z word came out and was used in ordinary discussion.
What do you expect from a socialist? Never happy with the world's most dynamically engineered financial system, always talking about labor, blah, blah, blah.
Socialists are simply incapable of understanding, much less accepting, that capitalism benefits the little people, the ones who depend on whatever it is that trickles down from their betters.
"The Z word"?
(I think GOP Senator):"Mr. Chairman, are the big banks zombies? Is AIG a zombie?" No laughter from witness or panel.
And from the Guardian, more Toyota woes...
"Toyota, the world's biggest carmaker, is considering plans to put its European workforce on a three-day week as it forecasts the biggest slump in car sales for 35 years.
Senior executives at the annual Geneva motor show, which opened today, forecast overall European sales will collapse by 30% this year to 15m cars and vans, bottoming out later this year. Recovery will take three or four years."
Toyota employs 22,000 in Europe.
I've seen that chart (back last October or so) described as "the dreaded 'cat leaning against a wall' formation".
on a positive note, I did read a couple of articles quoting several college officials stating that they can not raise tuition; the budget cuts have to come from faculty and staff. On the other hand, these were small private colleges were tuition alone was $40K+.
"the budget cuts have to come from faculty and staff. On the other hand, these were small private colleges were tuition alone was $40K+."
The HELOC ATM is closed. College tuition is in for some deflationary pig-tail. Illegal aliens are in for some hard times as Johnny HS Grad takes a job, any job while living at home with ma and pa. It will start small at the pricey private schools first, but then get rolling full tilt at the state colleges as even tenure will not save Professors ass.
"European workforce on a three-day week"
Yeah, layoffs have cooled down. What's hot is salary cuts and workweek reductions! Ho!
Rich, if you are reading; do you still own BHP?
(AP) Greeley, CO - Police arrested Arvil McRanty, owner of the "Daily Bail" website for engaging in terrorism and foul language. McRanty, a well-known interner spammer,is suspected of creating, producing and airing the popular "#*(@(#$ Government Ranter" youtube videos calling for a "tax march" on Washington, D.C. In other news, Gordy McGerbil was shot down by D.C. police as he marched towards the Senate building holding what appeared to be a "Tax March" protest sign. Police insist that they had reason to believe that McGerbil's sign contained a weapon of mass destruction.
Is the fractional reserve function unrelated to the inflation control function?
The reserve ratio is one of the tools with which the Fed controls the money supply. Dunno how often they use it though. I know that the PBC jacked their reserve ratio up to ~17% last year.
Obviously, it's a complex subject. My whole point is that while the Fed seems to be focus of ire, that is no reason to abolish it, root and branch. It seems to be an ideological bugbear to many, who perhaps don't understand the full implication of what the are saying. To watch an internet video, be swayed, and pronounce, "The Fed! The Fed must go!", seems childish, at the least.
To be childish is not such a bad thing. Children don't form their opinions on pre-existing ideologies, they form their opinions from curiosity and experimentation. It's the adults that are so fixated on broken ways because they are too afraid of disproving themselves and damaging their egos.
I'm definitely not afraid of changing my opinion, and my ego is well in check. I just remember inflation getting completely out of hand back in the late '70's, and Volcker stepping in and rather heavy-handedly bringing it back under control. I didn't see the banks leading the way. Why do we think so highly of him to this day as a take-charge kinda guy?
Just so you know, I wasn't accusing you of being either. It was just a general observation from a Psychology major =]
As for Volcker specifically...I have no idea I wasn't even alive in that era. But back to the Federal Reserve interesting thing, if you look at this graph you will clearly see that the Fed's Target rate follows the EFFECTIVE rate, not the other way around:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/fredgraph?&chart_type=line&graph_id=0&category_id=&recession_bars=On&width=1000&height=600&bgcolor=%2399FF99&txtcolor=%23000000&preserve_ratio=true&&s_1=1&s[1][id]=DFF&s[1][transformation]=lin&s[1][scale]=Left&s[1][range]=Custom&s[1][cosd]=2007-07-01&s[1][coed]=2008-12-12&s[1][line_color]=%230000FF&s_2=1&s[2][id]=DFEDTAR&s[2][transformation]=lin&s[2][scale]=Left&s[2][range]=Max&s[2][cosd]=2007-07-01&s[2][coed]=2008-12-12&s[2][line_color]=%23FF0000
"The Fed absolutely sets rates. What was Volcker, Greenspan, and Bernanke doing?"
The Fed absolutely does not set rates. The market sets rates and the Fed follows. Read up on EFF and FFR.
"The Fed absolutely sets rates. What was Volcker, Greenspan, and Bernanke doing?"
There's a reason why they call it jaw-boning.
I'll try to find a link to the Reinhart and Rogoff paper and provide it here.
Jim Rogers
YouTube - Jim Rogers: Let AIG Go Bankrupt or USA Finished
"They're ruining the U.S. economy, they're ruining the U.S. government, they're ruining the U.S. central bank and they're ruining the U.S. dollar...the destruction of New York as a financial center and the destruction of America as the world's most powerful country"
I love these CNBC idiots who always try to talk the guests into the con; too bad they didn't ask him for a stock tip this time. Rogers is funny, he gave them a tip anyway.
"Mark, you should become a farmer, that's where the future is."
I doubt Jim Rogers has done an honest day's work since he left college. He's a gangster with a bow tie. Just because he is smarter than the rest of his colleagues doesn't make him any better. He's in Asia to feast off the labor of Chinese workers, like he did with workers in the West.
WHICH ONE OF YOU IS THIS? ? ? ?? ? ? ?
ITS SOMEONE HERE! ! ! ! !
I hope that you aren't actually attracted to a simpleton like this?
Did he actually suggest a solution or was he simply complaining about just about everything but especially his own fate? If primitive rants like these are attractive to folks on CR then we are in for a hell of a tough ride down.
I guarantee that there will be many more who won't complain about their taxes but about having little to eat. If they rant and rave like this fellow and get to march with their pitchforks then it will really get interesting. People like this guy won’t show their faces at that point.
"I hope that you aren't actually attracted to a simpleton like this?"
elitist is elite
This comment system isn't working correctly.
Conjure is enraged.
Guest 10:03:05 PM = RE
my point was merely that he sounds like a collection of ideas floating around here... believe me i'm one of the more moderate ones..... i.e. i've only recently become worried....
Conjure says, "Read this garbage!"
Notes Projections and the Budget Outlook | The White House
Then read the Reinhart and Rogoff paper, "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," December 2008.
We are screwed.
Have a nice day.
Table 1
Forecasted GDP Growth (Year/Year)
\t 2009 \t2010
Administration \t -1.2% 3.2%
CBO (Average of Low and High) \t-0.9 \t2.6
Blue Chip (Jan.) \t -1.6 2.4
Macroeconomic Advisers (Dec.) \t-1.3 \t3.7
Hummm....... I take it you dont see the rebound?
.........
I don't think you get it. Obama's people are assuming in their analysis that this is just another recession, and using the history of past recessions to come up with an estimate of the time to recovery.
This is not a normal recession. It is THE AFTERMATH OF A FINANCIAL CRISIS, a very different pathology. As Reinhart and Rogoff correctly point out, the recovery time is YEARS, not MONTHS.
Obama's people DON'T GET IT.
i was being snarky... i'm slowly moving in to you're camp.... i've always been a slow mover, good instincts but it doesnt help... perhaps i should work on that....
Sorry, but Conjure and I just discovered this only a few hours ago. It explains completely a major disconnect in how Obama's people are dealing with this problem.
We are MIGHTILY screwed. They fail to understand that, unlike a recession, the system WILL NOT return to equilibrium of its own accord. Their analysis ASSUMES that it will.
I see your point. What if this happens. They pump so much that it works for 3-5 years. Does the dollar have another dance? Can the populous have another affair with a different asset or source of wealth? I dont see much but I'm kinda new at all this!
The recovery won't occur as forecast. The White House will say something like, "Gee, Macroeconomic Advisers and the Blue Chips got it wrong too, so don't beat up on us."
Fact is, they don't see this crisis for what it really is. They don't see that the economy WILL NOT return to equilibrium with truly massive intervention.
So, as Guest said, I guess they don't want to tell the truth, they want to drag it out and keep going back for more and more money, so they may be knowingly underestimating what's required.
It may be that Obama has insufficient balls to meet this thing head on and tell the truth. He may think the American people can't handle it.
Last one was me.
Actually, too many people would have to be involved if they did this knowingly. That would be a very big conspiracy.
I think Occam's Razor applies here.
They just don't get it.
Unless the report comes straight from Bernanke, Geithner, and their economic dream team. Who would argue with them, but the lowly, tin-hat blogger?
It may be that Obama has insufficient balls to meet this thing
head on and tell the truth. He may think the American people
can't handle it.
The voting record of the American people seems to say quite
unequivocally that the electorate indeed cannot handle
the truth.
"The voting record of the American people seems to say quite
unequivocally that the electorate indeed cannot handle
the truth."
One would have to assume that it is political suicide to tell the electorate anything but what they want to hear. Which is probably one reason why government economic forecasts are so rosy and why Dr. Doom and The Black Swan are treated so poorly on CNBC.
NPR is starting to give these guys some real air time though.
I noticed immediately that they avoided any and all reference to the Great Depression. It obviously doesn't fit in with their rosy imaginary worldview.
They get it. BUT they can't SAY IT. People will panic and crash the system then! Rather a slow decline than an all out crash is their way of thinking.
OK, then you know what that means. You've got Japan, dejavu all over again, except this time it's the global economy going down the tubes, not just Japan.
They MUST understand - they aren't that dense. Which means that they're lying. Later this year, we'll get a "it's worse than we predicted" speech and another taxpayer giveaway - followed by another, etc.
ShortObama
"We've replaced intelligence with Folgers Crystals, let's see if anyone notices."
They're using "Average rebound" and "Average recession debt" figures for their analysis.
Someone in the MEDIA should tear this fiction a new one.
The Aftermath of Financial Crises:
The Aftermath of Financial Crises
This is an extremely depressing discovery for me and I appreciate the discussion here.
It's pretty obvious that the Obama Administration isn't facing the music. They're approaching this problem as little more than an average recession, not as an event that prevents the system from returning to equilibrium. So, their scorecard is already several innings behind the game.
As Reinhart and Rogoff point out, we're probably going to end up in a tax trap, as small changes in GDP lead to large changes in tax revenue. This will lead to absolutely unprecedented borrowing, but from whom will we borrow when the rest of the world is also descending into depression?
I don't know - the guys in Bernanke's, Krugman's, Geithner's league are all smart enough not to be swayed by politics when it comes to numbers. And if they aren't they are at least smart enough to engage people who can account for "optimism bias" and "strategic misrepresentation" when developing such a crucial plan.
It's a lie to prevent panic. It's got to be.
Speed, if it's a lie why would they repeat history and create zombie banks?
Consider their current performance: not too good. I accept the possibility that it could be a lie, but you must accept the possibility that they don't know.
Occam's Razor says it's the latter, so does their past and current performance.
It's both, guys. They don't know, for all the triple shifting of Treasury and Fed economists, but they're also trying to tamp down market panic while groups of forecasters kitchen sink the future based on the past. This is a problem. There is a serious professional lacuna in optimism bias and regression to mean. Bit like an economics fairy story. Might well be true in the long run, but it doesn't tell you how and why the regression happens. Don't get me started on Karl Popper.
This is why I think the Four Bad Bears chart is only useful for historical comparison. It's in no way predictive at all, except for chartists who are robotrading their way through the compression.
I do not think the instruments being applied are sufficient to address the problem. I've said this many times on this board, but one cannot fix a problem of solvency by hosing liquidity at it.
C
FDIC’s Bair Says Insurance Fund Could Be Insolvent
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said the deposit insurance fund could dry up amid a surge in bank failures, as she responded to an industry outcry against new fees approved by the agency. ...
Can someone get these /gov/tards a fucking email account that the rest of the world can send them information at so that they don't sound totally stupid issuing 'news flashes' 6 months (or more) after everyone else has already figured things out.
Are they TRYING to start a bank run?
“Without these assessments, the deposit insurance fund could become insolvent this year,” Bair wrote in a March 2 letter to the industry.
.......bearly .....you reading this ...... “Keynesian Communist's market up +5% , the rest of Asian markets +1 ~ +3......Chinese rumor.....
.......................now +6.2.....bearly....go figure............
From the white house economic projections link mp just posted:
"The short-term forecasts are in fact less important to the budget projections than the long-term forecasts."
Something seems so very, very wrong with taking this approach. I was under the impression that the longer you look out, the cloudier the forecasts become. So why is the administration placing more importance on longer-term forecasts?
They missed 4Q2008 GDP by almost 100% for Christ's sake. And that's in the PAST!
Volcker let rates simmer up, topping at 18%. It killed all the saving and loans. It would kill any pigman on the short end of 6% fixed, and I can't wait.
Yo CR...I called mortgage pig at 1:38 p.m. in the comments. Perhaps I was beat, but if not, feculant diletante should be the shout-out. heh.
Well this is great ING just lowered my interest rate to 1.65%
If there is one thing I learned living through this financial crisis, being prudent and a saver is equivalent to being a criminal.
You'd rather a five year at the same yield with no where to go down or perhaps a couple of shares in C, perfered of course... Be fortunate for growth at all... At least for now. You'll also enjoy the liquidity...
citiprank sed:At least I know now to ignore all politicians until they start talking about seizing the fed
Ayup. Everything else is just pointless thrashing. Thrashing is very popular here, though.
"Well this is great ING just lowered my interest rate to 1.65%"
What kind of investment? What was the previous rate?
a liquid MM account, fdic backed fwiw... lol!
1.65% is still about 50% higher than what your return would probably be in equities
Well, I bit the bullet and went long junk bonds today, Ford, Hertz, some beauties. CCC-. Just doing my part. Naturally, I am long puts. The living must eat the zombies' brains.
Volcker let rates simmer up, topping at 18%. It killed all the saving and loans. It would kill any pigman on the short end of 6% fixed, and I can't wait.
Have you seen the % of our debt that is financed at the short end? 18% would not only kill the pigmen, but also Uncle Sam.
Uncle Sam must tax a bit higher for a while. Maybe he can print a little and stick some on China. Savers will be happy lending at the new rates. Productive workers/earners can afford a house at the new prices. As long as the big 3 keep up the 200 year bumper (rice aint too shabby either) it really won't be so bad. 18% never bothered me, as I hate debt. We have all the shelter built already. Cut off the Fed spigot, kill the borrow short lend long idiots who missed the first lesson in banking. I'll gladly take the hit on my junk bonds, heheheh.
Blando opines: ...while the Fed seems to be focus of ire, that is no reason to abolish it, root and branch.
Greenspan, izzat you?
LOL. Yeah, right. I'm just a blue-collar slob unwilling to jump on the 'abolish the Fed' bandwagon just yet.
otishertz glad you didnt bounce for good.... more and more people are chanting the same thing from different angles... unfortunately they are all point towards the same thing....
the unavoidable reality. denialist we all are right up to the Final Blowout Sale ends.
can we ever go home to analog again?
Chart looks like a giant "M", as in the classic Peter Lorre movie about M The Child Killer!
And on the 40 year SPX graph a drop to a bear market lower low near 450 makes an even bigger 'M'.
my point was merely that he sounds like a collection of ideas floating around here... believe me i'm one of the more moderate ones..... i.e. i've only recently become worried....
I think it is good to worried. There is every reason to be worried. However, ranting without proposing constructive solutions and at the same time not admitting the complexity of the problem, is utterly unhelpful and, in fact, destructive IMO.
Proposing solutions without understanding the complexity of the problem is the most destructive of all. And that is what this administration (as a continuation of the past one) is doing on a massive scale.
We're so far out of the comfort zone that losses are cascading over the prudent operating range of businesses and individuals. It's not that the losses can be prevented, but that the process in which they are occurring is less than optimal by taking too long, acting manic depressive (and eventually overshooting)
Before long you won't even be able to make money trying to go short the market. For now, the will to believe or to ignore personal mistakes prevails -- but once that stubbornness is bled dry, no more
We're going to need a rebuild once the economy seizes or throws a rod (Central Banker's will depending). Should have steadily made our way to the nearest garage instead of racing against our past performance.
Real problem is that with modern agriculture and trade, there are many countries that are far from self-sufficient and are dependent on a high specialization of trade due to labor surpluses & environmental deficiencies
EHP dont you think that the populations could quickly adapt to become self sufficent or at least trade else where under different terms?
I think it might be painful in the short run but I think they will be able to....
.................
overnout
Most countries just do not have the natural resources required to be self-sufficient. It's not the lack of will, it's just a result of unfortunate geographical location.
That's just it. So much land has been deforested, slashed + burned, and heavily farmed or mined -- that land needs time to reforest, and recover. Look at Haiti, once the environmental destruction crosses a certain threshold it becomes a trap that engenders war and division. The environment doesn't recover until the people leave the land because while they are there they are forced to scavenge for survival.
They need food imports just to support their population in the immediate term, and without the system of high level trade it will be difficult to find supplies on bartering terms based on the distribution of who has what.
Look at a year ago when countries were scrambling for rice or corn in the marginal artificial scarcity that drew the price towards User Price instead of Producer or Market price. Since then a number of droughts have become more serious
It is a sad tale. The native North Americans knew about the 3 sisters and probably had some level of memory of when they hunted the large mammals to extinction. They coexisted with the buffalo and the whale, but we were determined to slash and burn. I still believe we are salvageable and will learn from the dustbowl. True, we don't make that much here in the big city but the air and water are much cleaner than when I grew up. And we still have people willing to live in a tree and endure the rants of Limbaughs and Santellis to make a point.
there are many countries that are far from self-sufficient
This is why we're screwed, but not as screwed as others. It may also cause geopolitical instability.
Assuming Banker Ninja Be Men and Nighttime Theory hit the TURBO button on the money creation computer at the Fed to force the issue, implicit bankruptcy full reset... than I completely agree
absent a global bad event like disease, starvation.... I believe the US will be on a much different footing, but have much healthier growth post-reset
The main deficiency I see is oil, but if Japan-style efficiency was adopted overnight the US could be self-sufficient for now. But main oil exporting nations are still largely beholden client states one way or another, so they can't exactly afford to hoard and competition for leaseholders will come down to who can provide steady food supply
I like the Great Liquidation sale. Invite China since they have all our dollars and much of our debt. China, we have many skyscrapers here in the big Apple. Rockefeller Center, the Chrysler building, the GM building. Much cachet. Japanese and Arabs have been proud owners.
One hush hush item about the rents, though. We pay in $, and when inflation hits we bring out the dusty old Rent Control reg's. (We had commercial control once). Socialize this!
Schwarzman’s Pay Falls 99% Amid Blackstone Losses, Stock Drop
It's now only $350,000. His 2007 ($180.1M) compensation was the equivalent of 4,000 jobs @ $40K each.
should be 4500 @ $40K but you get the idea.
Oh, forgot. Solar, wind and wave are really coming and it's good that we get off oil anyway. Sorry EHP I focus on the US. The world can have my single currency, as a start.
How do you post on that chat again?
yogi,
Oil will always be valuable. It is simply a very useful substance. Huge energy density, relatively non-volatile, easily stored or transported...
All that renewable and electric stuff really benefits me indirectly as an electrical engineer, and I'm a big fan of the environment... BUT the big hurdle is storing that electricity efficiently, and one I'm realistic about
EHP, you mentioned a while ago you were interested in happenings in the gold market. Here is another one from the same poster on VOY:
Request I received today -- ROAN, 09:39:44 03/03/09 Tue
Gold Bullion – We have a buyer looking to buy gold bullion. Their requirements are as follows:
a. This has to be done as a private sales between two private parties.
b. The Buyer has given us partial proof of fund (a bank statement of USD500 million from Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong) so that we can show the seller that the buyer is real and has the capability to buy. This is only partial proof of fund because the buyer does not know how much gold bullion the seller has. They just want to show a large amount of dollars as partial proof so that we can make progress with the seller.
c. In exchange of a copy of the bank statement as partial proof of fund, the buyer expects the seller to provide a copy of the SKR (storage receipt) or other documents that can prove the existence of the gold bullion. This is a key requirement. The buyer will not sign anything until they have seen and verified the SKR or other documents that prove the existence of the gold. Once the seller can show the SKR and the SKR is verified to be real, the buyer will transfer the fund needed and close the deal within 48 hours.
d. The nett discount must be at least 7%. The best discount structure would be Gross 10%, Nett 7%, with the 3% difference as commission to be shared among all intermediaries, including buyer.
e. Minimum quantity must be 100MT (Metric Tonne). The buyer has not stated the maximum quantity they will buy but we think they will probably buy up to 1,000 MT.
f. The gold bullion must be hallmarked.
Interesting I guess, have no idea if it's real or if it's someone smart enough to pull the internet's leg.
100,000 kg / 3,527,396 oz. $911.50 / oz @ kitco
$3,215,221,454... minimum
Wonder if it is leveraged
How does one post on the chat?
I don't see the butto
Wonder if it is leveraged
I vouch for the poster, I have observed him for years. A very knowledgeable gold market insider. The only question is if the buyer is trying to pull something.
http://www.gfms.co.uk/Market%20Commentary/Gold%20Survey%202008%20Presentation.pdf
annual production under 2500 tonnes
Don't worry, mp.
Help is on the way.
We now have an official "recovery" logo!
Democratic Underground - The symbol of our future - Democratic Underground
It's all going to be okay now.
Conjure just puked all over his desk blotter.
I bet it has been photoshopped, too.
Wonder how much that cost the taxpayers?
Nemo delenda est!
Reeks of the suede denim secret police, coming for your uncool niece.
YouTube -
annual production under 2500 tonnes
Yep. In gold it is not about production but about above ground supplies. Note though that this guy can also handle longer term production agreements.
Broadband for every American (and then the world) is a brilliant, progressive idea and I will volunteer extra tax money if they cut back on weapons.
i'm prone to go commando but maybe a ten minute window to edit would reduce correction posts enough to make it worthwhile. if the window was short enough it would prevent most people from modifying their intent
CBOT says up? How accurate is it for the following day?
ha, ha, i thought something looked familiar in that graph.
I am with mp. Obama does not get it. That explains his stock market comment today.
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