Because a lot of mega-millionaires who have looted money are worried and they are heading for the hills. They want to be self-sufficient and put their loot into something of real value that can't be traced.
Rich..
..
"Because a lot of mega-millionaires who have looted money are worried and they are heading for the hills. They want to be self-sufficient and put their loot into something of real value that can't be traced.
You can sit here and shake your fist at them.
Or you can join them in making more money.
I don't care if people call me a looter. "
..
..
What do you think these people are putting their money in thats "real value that cant be traced"?
I asked my cat, I said, "Kitty, do you see the markets going down? If you think so, meow back to me." And you know what, the cat did, it meowed back! It really did! Now does that mean my cat has predictive powers, or could it, just maybe, be because all my cat does is meow?
You see where I'm going with this? Karl "Net Kook" Denninger has been outraged and spittle flecked from day one. He's just latched on to a winning subject this time. His commentary has zero value. He's the sideshow geek of the coming great depression. But if you want to crowd around and watch him bite the heads off of chickens, be my guest.
Your cat may make better decisions than many of those who have had a significant impact on the world economy. At the very least, your cat's motives are likely more pure.
You asked about KD's track record in the last thread. Unfortunately he's been more accurate than just about anyone. He had a set of 16 calls he made in Jan '07. Two of them were wrong.
Some of these were easy calls (US will enter a recession), but some were not (Dollar will strengthen). Still pretty impressive. I respect someone who makes measurable, verifiable predictions. Doesn't mean everything he says going forward is going to be true, but you'd be foolish to ignore his POV.
Plus calls for more splitting and selling off of units, including, shockingly enough, from the Straits Times. Now why would Singaporeans feel interested in this?http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1Story20090304-126132.html
Haven't checked the Saudi papers for their views, but I'm guessing they have some ideas, too.
Krugman's point only applies when the central bank purchases short-term debt. Longer-term debt and cash are NOT perfect substitutes.
The results may be "disappointing" -- and I happen to believe "disastrous" is more likely -- but what the BofE is doing here is not what Krugman was talking about.
Yes but if the Central bank buys long dated paper, or paper with credit risk, it is just taking some risk off the hands of the private market and putting it on the govt.
Funny....I always thought a financial collapse would be a heck of a lot more straightforward than this. Just when I think they have used up all of thier tricks the PTB reach into thier bag and pull out two more.
I guess they will be pulling out tricks all the way down but somebody should tell them it is getting embarassing. Thier incompetance is showing.
Guest, yes, his comments apply when the interest rate is near zero on the assets buying purchased (near perfect substitutes) - I added a note to make this clear it depends on the assets being purchased.
I remember this when we were kids. When the bank ran out of money, we just cut up a bunch of pieces of paper and the game of monopoly went on until everyone but one person was bankrupt.
The foolish 19th century barbers: they should have called 'bleeding' something more palatable like 'quantitative easing". We'd still be doing that if they had woken up to modern NewSpeak.
So effective quantitative easing would be buying assets that have decreasing value, essentially giving away money. Time for them to start buying houses outright.
March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Amusement-park operator Six Flags Inc. and automaker Ford Motor Co. may be pushed toward bankruptcy by bondholders trying to profit from credit-default swaps that protect against losses on their high-yield debt.
By employing a so-called negative-basis trade, investors could buy Six Flags bonds at 20.5 cents on the dollar and credit- default swaps at 71 cents. If the New York-based chain defaults, the creditors would receive the face value of the debt, minus costs. In a Feb. 27 note, Citigroup Inc.’s high-yield strategists put that profit at 6 percentage points, or $600,000 on a $10 million purchase.
Investors who bet on the collapse of a company are pitting themselves against traditional debt holders at a time when Moody’s Investors Service projects defaults will more than triple this year to the worst level since the Great Depression. The clash may stall restructuring efforts to prevent bankruptcies, as basis traders may be less inclined to participate in distressed debt exchanges, said Matthew Eagan, an investment manager at Boston-based Loomis Sayles & Co., with $7 billion in high-yield assets.
“Before, you really had to worry mostly about where you were in the” company’s capital structure, he said. “Now, you have to consider the possibility that you might have this large holder of CDS incentivized to see it go into bankruptcy. It’s something that’s going to come up more and more.”
My brother -- who is a lot closer to retirement than I, or used to be -- were talking about his 401(k). He has maxed out every retirement contribution for his entire career. He asked me, "Where did my money GO?" I wasn't sure how to answer him.
He did take enough of my advice to move half of it out in 2006... But he has still lost a lot of money. I don't feel schadenfreude, and I don't feel happy. I just feel angry. This was no natural disaster beyond human control. This was the predictable consequence of certain people's actions.
"Going concern" is my favorite accounting term by far. I love the way it rolls of the tongue. From FT.com:
Deloitte & Touche, GM’s auditors, have expressed “substantial doubt” about its ability to continue as a going concern, based on continued operating losses, negative shareholders’ equity and the inability to generate sufficient cash flow.
Nemo, I just had a coworker come into my office ask "What should I do!" Their retirement is melting away. I used to give advice. Now, I just shake my head.
New Hoopajoops LTD catastrophic market day feature, please be prepared for your daily dose of "Everything checked out OK"
5:11 p.m. A man who parked his vehicle near the police station and put on a pair of gloves when he exited checked out OK.
9:15 p.m. A golden retriever by the side of Montague Road was just taking a nap and had not been hit by a vehicle.
10:53 a.m. A man licking the pavement on Main Street in front of Subway was gone when police got there.
2:36 a.m. An amateur radio operator in South Amherst told police that he was worried about interference that his radio was picking up.
9:21 p.m. A person told police that a slippery substance was placed on the sidewalk near the Unitarian church. Police determined that the substance had been placed by the Department of Public Works to provide better traction for pedestrians.
7:46 p.m. Brandywine Apartments residents told police that a man and a woman were attempting to sell pies door-to-door.
10:59 a.m. Footprints outside a Pine Street barn were just indentations made by falling snow, police said.
11:07 a.m. People meditating inside a car parked behind a West Street home were sent on their way by police.
9:55 a.m. A Rolling Green Drive resident told police that his girlfriend had been receiving poems at her Hadley workplace from a sixty-year-old man. Amherst police advised the man to contact Hadley police about the problem.
5:00 p.m. A Lake Wyola area resident told police that threatening graffiti was placed on his lawn. Police determined that the graffiti was just markings made by phone-company employees.
7:48 a.m. Police received a report that a woman was sitting near the Amtrak station smoking cigarettes and laughing.
3:29 a.m. A man pulled his car up to a gas pump at Cumberland Farms on Russell Street and stayed in the car for fifteen minutes without getting out. Police said that when they arrived on the scene, the man was still in the car listening to a motivational tape.
We can blast the central banks all we want but the truth is they don't really have a choice but to do this. The banks lost the peoples money and one way or another, the gov't has to replace the money. The alternative is everyone's savings and checking accounts go to zero.
If we let the banks fail, they go to FDIC and the end result is the same.
It won't solve the problems, but it's a necessary step towards a solution.
This goes back to the old axiom, "Never invest in something you don't understand." How many people who have been pouring money into the stock market over the last 25 years really knew what they were doing? I'd venture less than 10%. Remember when you used to be able to walk into a bank and put 10,000 into a CD bearing 6.5%? What happened to those days? The advent of the 401k has been the greatest swindle in the history of mankind, IMO.
March 5 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve Board of Governors receives daily reports on bailout loans to financial institutions and won’t make the information public, the central bank said in a reply to a Bloomberg News lawsuit.
The Fed refused yesterday to disclose the names of the borrowers and the loans, alleging that it would cast “a stigma” on recipients of more than $1.9 trillion of emergency credit from U.S. taxpayers and the assets the central bank is accepting as collateral.
Your cat may make better decisions than many of those who have had a significant impact on the world economy. At the very least, your cat's motives are likely more pure.
Plus you can put her down if you don;t like what she has to say.
What worries me though is now people are talking about replacing 401k with retirement plans where the returns are "guaranteed by the government". As if a government that can't even manage its own finances can guarantee some kind of real return in the long run.
The idea is so demonstrably flawed given the long-term unpredictability of governments and economies, it strikes me as exactly the same sort of wealth illusion bubble notion that got us here.
There are no guaranteed returns (except maybe in nominal terms). There's even less guarantee when it's coming from a 3rd party.
I would hope recent events make this abundantly clear.
My brother -- who is a lot closer to retirement than I, or used to be -- were talking about his 401(k). He has maxed out every retirement contribution for his entire career. He asked me, "Where did my money GO?" I wasn't sure how to answer him.
That money was carefully extracted and is now locked up in 20K sq. ft mansions, private jets, islands, and other vast holdings.
What happens to the already invested money in the Lincoln National variable annuity policy if Lincoln National goes TU?
No, it's not something that I would purchase, but offered to my spouse.
Lincoln has steadfastly stated that nothing could possibly go wrong and they've got lots of cash, but y'know, if we did, then the state insurance department would cover things, y'know?
The state insurance department doesn't have an effin' clue for variable annuities.
But it's all good, see?
Mebbe I should just "borrow" the already invested money and stick it into the Credit Union. (Yeah, I'm leaving my bank...)
March 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Bancorp and Northern Trust Corp. will return funds from the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, according to Representative Barney Frank.
The banks didn’t immediately confirm whether they’d repaid any of the federal money.
Retirement returns that are guaranteed by the government are flawed, but they're the best of a bad and intollerable series of options, including letting the elderly starve when their companies go bankrupt and ditch their pensions. The public/private partnership that allows companies to gamble with or understate pension funds and government to pick up the tab when it goes wrong and the company to profit when it goes right is unacceptable.
Collectively, we're entirely incompetent at running our banks as we have been.
As the intermediaries between our savings and profitable investments, the banks have failed. Our regulators have failed. And our savings have been squandered.
Although we can recapitalize by borrowing some more, unless and until we rebuild our banks & regulators, nothing really changes.
If you put $X into an account, what will the bank do with your money? Who will regulate it?
These are axiomatic questions and their clear answers are necessary before our system can restart.
dirk - [Yes but if the Central bank buys long dated paper, or paper with credit risk, it is just taking some risk off the hands of the private market and putting it on the govt.]
That is exactly what is happening. But it's not the govt. It's the taxpayer and the Fed is screwing the taxpayer without any input from elected representatives, such as they are.
We've lost so many good commentors because of these incompetent marketing-only-coder-deprived motherfuckers at JS-Kit. I looked them up. They're like 30 minutes away from me, I should go throw apples at their cars.
TCA sez: The advent of the 401k has been the greatest swindle in the history of mankind, IMO.
Not to argue, but to expand: the establishment of IRS and the Fed were the greatest swindle, without which swindle, of course, the 401k swindle would not have been possible. Given that, I agree that the 401k swindle has been one of their best among many, ranking right up there with their Socialist inSecurity swindle.
Retirement returns that are guaranteed by the government are flawed, but they're the best of a bad and intollerable series of options, including letting the elderly starve when their companies go bankrupt and ditch their pensions. The public/private partnership that allows companies to gamble with or understate pension funds and government to pick up the tab when it goes wrong and the company to profit when it goes right is unacceptable."
Hoopster: Can't argue with the theory. The problem is that governments never fund their pension/health care benefits adquately. Some not at all. Wasn't CalPers assuming an 8% annual return ad inifinitum? My take: there is no solution to the pension/health benefit problem except personal thrift, a la the Germans. What's the fun in that?
Yup I keep trying but it keeps really pissing me off. Be sure to copy your comment to clipboard before posting ... I have learned that one the hard way with a couple of longer posts. Compared to this, the original haloscan totally rocked. This is not a robust, reliable, user-friendly comment system. It's a PITA, and they should not be doing their development work live on this forum. (no offense CR, you are the best! ... it is the js-kit folks, who apparently don't have any database people in-house).
Retirement returns that are guaranteed by the government are flawed, but they're the best of a bad and intollerable series of options, including letting the elderly starve when their companies go bankrupt and ditch their pensions. The public/private partnership that allows companies to gamble with or understate pension funds and government to pick up the tab when it goes wrong and the company to profit when it goes right is unacceptable.
For the sake of argument let me disagree and suggest that perhaps the poor performance of 401ks is in part due to government intervention in the economy that postponed recessions and market corrections and gave individuals false feedback about the behavior of stocks and investments in general, leading them to make poor decisions due to lack of practical experience.
Also, are government run pension plans doing any better than 401ks? If not, how can they possibly be better managers of peoples retirement funds?
If you're going to go the government guaranteed route, why just not make it a straight out welfare program?
Let me be clear about my objection: I don't think the government can do it, just as I don't think they can make the economy better - the wealth in this country has largely been created by individuals and individual businesses as I see it. Yes the government has played a role in making this possible by enforcing laws and contracts and creating public infrastructure, but I don't see that they've actually created most of the wealth.
I think only the people and institutions responsibly for creating wealth have and hope of guaranteeing wealth to individuals in the future.
Again, I don't necessarily have a problem with trying to give people predictable retirements and keeping them off the streets; I just don't see the evidence that the government can do it.
Promises of paid for retirements strike me as simply variations on the same sort of government sponsored prosperity that has failed time and time again in socialist experiments.
At a fundamental level, I think it disserves a democratic society to let old people who are unable to generate a livable income die in the streets. A social contract that takes care of the elderly is a bedrock of civilized society, and is as old as the agricultural revolution.
Having said that, capitalism is not a social contract, but an economic tool to serve the contract. So, I don't blame capitalism for the coming calamity. I blame the practioners of political philosophy who miscontrue capitalism for a political system.
"Looks like we're about to break the 6600/680 mark; hold on tight..."
You telling lies thinkin' I can't see
You can't cry 'cause you're laughin' at me
I'm down (I'm really down)
I'm down (Down on the ground)
I'm down (I'm really down)
How can you laugh, when you know I'm down?
(How can you laugh?) When you know I'm dow
Consider how awful these morons in charge are, I decided to come up with a challenging trivia question for the peanut gallery:
WHO is the only man to have served as head of the Federal Reserve and as Treasury Secretary? Hint: He was one of the very worst Fed Chiefs ever . . . . .
“We've lost so many good commentors because of these incompetent marketing-only-coder-deprived motherfuckers at JS-Kit. I looked them up. They're like 30 minutes away from me, I should go throw apples at their cars.
which ones specifically? I haven't been on much, too busy
BoE is going to buy 5 to 25 year gilts, or UK government bonds, starting with Gbp 2 bio next week. US long bond is up $3 today in anticipation of the Fed doing the same imminently. The great monetization has begun. For those who have any wealth left, get prepared to take another 30% haircut via inflation.
What you all fail to realize is that this is America and we know how to come back from all adversity. Sure we may be down now, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel. I see a bull in bear clothing. We are primed for a big big summer rebound like you have never seen before!
The Dow Transport Index is not bad. Unlike the "other" Dow indexes it actually has something to do with transportation. Recently a bunch of my "secret" numbers have become mainstream. Most notably the BDI. An interesting energy + transport number is the NA pipeline volumes and I also keep tabs on lumber shipments as a transport + housing metric. Finally, another newly popular number port volume via TEUs.
"My brother -- who is a lot closer to retirement than I, or used to be -- were talking about his 401(k). He has maxed out every retirement contribution for his entire career. He asked me, "Where did my money GO?" I wasn't sure how to answer him.
That money was carefully extracted and is now locked up in 20K sq. ft mansions, private jets, islands, and other vast holdings."
If J6P ever gets this - I mean really gets this, there might finally be people (and blood) in the streets.
Believe me, personal thrift is not the way to retire. This mess is destroying a lifetime of work, thrift and conservative behavior. I expect next that my cash holdings will be cut in half during the coming inflation. Hell with it. Maybe my wife and I will just take a six month cruise.
Atlas Shrugged - Why work for wealth that the government and its cronies in washington will confiscate? I'm not talking confiscation through taxes, either.
spme analyst on B'Berg this morning said the same thing as that header in the CNBC video.
"Anything south of 750k and we will be at the bottom"....paraphrasing it of course...
I mean really....what else can you say?....that's why I've stopped posting regularly.....there just isn't much more I can add to what most of us have all seen coming for a long time.
How about this theory...GM and C go BK this weekend while many Americans are focused on their NCAA brackets. This Sunday afternoon would be a good time to release any bad news, as millions will be glued to the bracket release shows.
Both Haloscan and JS Kit are atrocious. There's a market niche to be filled...somebody get to work:)
Ironically, I think inflation will be good for the stock market, for a while at least. Zimbabwe was the best performing market in the world for a while because of hyperinflation, before complete societal collapse set in that is. I do think all the government stimulus and central bank liquidity will buy a temporary reprieve next year. One last chance to completely fleece the sheeple before the collapsing debt bubble and hyperinflation lead to economic collapse.
Ironically, I think inflation will be good for the stock market, for a while at least. Zimbabwe was the best performing market in the world for a while because of hyperinflation, before complete societal collapse set in that is. I do think all the government stimulus and central bank liquidity will buy a temporary reprieve next year. One last chance to completely fleece the sheeple before the collapsing debt bubble and hyperinflation lead to economic collapse.
Yeah, they don't have an Obama though. He will save us.. right?
Really hard to guess which one of the following countries will default first on its debt: 1) Ireland, 2) UK or 3) Austria. It is going to be a tight race.
We've had quantitative easing here for about a year. Japan has had it for over ten years. It hasn't worked. Money has stopped moving. Credit destruction is massive. Asset prices are crashing before our eyes. And people still expect inflation. I understand the need to hedge bets (I have precious metals too), but some people here talk about it like a certainty.
BTW regarding the jobs number's...I've not seen much discussion about how many people will be remaining in the workforce because they have no retirement. Also you might want to think long and hard about those 300K+ troops coming back here to what? Don't get me wrong...they need to get the hell out of that place but I sort of ponder that some might, just might, wish they had stayed.
If lenders and investors can use bankruptcy-remote SPVs, why can't employee pensions be parked in a similar vehicle? Also, pensions should just aim to beat inflation in a risk-free (yes, I know, laugh) security like Treasuries and leave it at that. All this yield chasing just ends in disaster at least once a generation.
Maybe another year. I will miss them despite their being the Wal-mart of book stores.
March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Borders Group Inc., the unprofitable bookstore chain that tried to sell itself last year, is cutting 742 positions in its more than 900 stores, or about 3 percent of its workforce, to align expenses with declining sales.
MS, I think there is still much to discuss. Calling the big bubble was the easy part, it was destined to crash at some point no matter what. Now comes the hard part, thinking about what happens next. The difficulty is that the outcome is not based only on economic conditions, extreme political blunders now can have very real outcomes.
I believe Obama called it the "profit to earnings ratio" - Its been at 1 for awhile.
\t
you may be right ont aht profit vs price term, i was focused on the "s" of earnings. I'm pretty sure he used "earning" in the singular.
but hell, i can't quote him right so how can i expect him to quote his advisors right.
"this suckers could go down" seems more accurate anyway
Hmmm. I thought changing light bulbs in federal buildings was going to fix everything. If mark to market isn't suspended soon, we're looking at dow 4000.
Brazil is interesting-- they've been through the hell/handbasket scenario, and came through it. We could end up more like them than Japan, as this thing plays out.
I don't know if anybody posted about this already. Singapore's SWF own 11% of City and is the biggest shareholder of UBS. Lee Kuan Yew just defended his investments by saying they were for the long term...
BTW, The Straits Time is actually quite decent as long as it reports on non Singaporean affairs.
They keep babbling about this subjective mindset called Confidence. They keep telling BO to shut up and start using psychology on us to bring back the market, as if that will fix it. They know how screwed they are.
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
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CRbot: Now with Js-Kit posting power! For Nemobot to envy!
Can someone provide a cliff notes version on where Russia stands with all this. I hear plenty about the troubles in Europe, but haven't really heard if Russia is suffering the same fate. Are their financials similar, lagging behind, or buffered in some way?
“I will be pushing for legislation that will make it illegal for anybody to securitize 100 percent of anything,” Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat, told reporters at a briefing in Washington today. Securitization is a “large part” of the problem in the housing market, he said.
Do you folks agree with Frank? I mean I see his point, knowing you're not going to hold onto a loan will just make you not give a sh1t about underwriting standards as you only care about the fee income. However, investors should be doing their own due diligence when buying a security, and not rely on the seller's underwriting standards or rating agencies to bless it.
To me it seems that securitization is a symptom of the problem, which is just too much debt and overleveraging in general. Like anything, Wall St just figured out how to make more money off the same product, which is the purpose of a corporation anyway.
Not too much longer before I get to trade in my Beanie Babies at a Fed Window for piles of Good Ole FRN! Don't worry though, I won't hoard it. I'm going to spend it like the currency is collapsing tomorrow!
Krugman makes sense. I see it in my own life. I've don't make any effort to get money from my no interest checking account shipped off to my Vanguard money market. So my question is this. Why not just give the cash away? The central bank or the Treasury could simply mail every person or every household (or whatever the gov't decides) 1,000 pounds. That might put a little starch in the string. Time to start pushing.
What Krugman ignores, in his zeal to flatter Bernanke, is that the Fed is buying crap with its new monetary base. Creating $1 of new money in exchange for $1 face value of MSBs, with a market value of $0.30 (which is what the Fed is really doing), is not a "perfect substitute".
It always amazes me that Krugman won a Nobel prize. While he has some book smarts, as a rule he's either pretty clueless about reality, or he's intellectually dishonest enough to ignore it when it suits his purposes (in this case, of flattering Bernanke).
Boo
eek
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
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We are all Japanese now.
"it’s basically taking away with one hand what it’s giving with the other"
Perhap they should buy PONIES instead!!!
When will he hit Peak Insanity?
and this is good for gold how?????
Because a lot of mega-millionaires who have looted money are worried and they are heading for the hills. They want to be self-sufficient and put their loot into something of real value that can't be traced.
You can sit here and shake your fist at them.
Or you can join them in making more money.
I don't care if people call me a looter.
Just don't indict me.
Rich..
..
"Because a lot of mega-millionaires who have looted money are worried and they are heading for the hills. They want to be self-sufficient and put their loot into something of real value that can't be traced.
You can sit here and shake your fist at them.
Or you can join them in making more money.
I don't care if people call me a looter. "
..
..
What do you think these people are putting their money in thats "real value that cant be traced"?
Ponies are free, they ramble all over the lower midwest, west, and Ireland
and this is good for shorting 10-year treasuries how????
I asked my cat, I said, "Kitty, do you see the markets going down? If you think so, meow back to me." And you know what, the cat did, it meowed back! It really did! Now does that mean my cat has predictive powers, or could it, just maybe, be because all my cat does is meow?
You see where I'm going with this? Karl "Net Kook" Denninger has been outraged and spittle flecked from day one. He's just latched on to a winning subject this time. His commentary has zero value. He's the sideshow geek of the coming great depression. But if you want to crowd around and watch him bite the heads off of chickens, be my guest.
Don't be too quick to discount feline wisdom.
Your cat may make better decisions than many of those who have had a significant impact on the world economy. At the very least, your cat's motives are likely more pure.
quantitative bleeding more like......
Let us take money from one pocket and put it in another.
It will impinge on the universe in some way, but in a good way?
printing = prosperity the level of depravity is stunning
Pissing into the wind during a rain storm is all.
The monetary base is tiny compared to the entirety of the credit markets.
and this is good for being long in anything other than cash and equivalents how????
Time to tax cash.
Money should have value. I think instead of lowering rates, they should go up to reflect risk.
a mystery live feed
ades,
You asked about KD's track record in the last thread. Unfortunately he's been more accurate than just about anyone. He had a set of 16 calls he made in Jan '07. Two of them were wrong.
Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2009) - The Market Ticker
Some of these were easy calls (US will enter a recession), but some were not (Dollar will strengthen). Still pretty impressive. I respect someone who makes measurable, verifiable predictions. Doesn't mean everything he says going forward is going to be true, but you'd be foolish to ignore his POV.
As far as cash being as good as treasuries, it would help if they made some bigger bills ... $1000, $10000, ...
Oh! Euros come in 750s?
"Helicopter Mervyn" just doesn't have the same ring to it.
King Copter?
"Time to tax cash"
Not out of the question. Time dated currency.
Economic Stimulus = quantitative easing x velocity of money.
Velocity of money heading towards zero.
Any questions?
Erin I have a full garden of crocuses for you "there's so much money on the sidelines -
streetsigns@cnbc.com
are there moves afoot in (or on) Citi?
lots of articles today about Citi's split into Citicorp and Citi Holdings, good bank/bad bank style: For Citigroup, Investors’ Actions Louder than Words : HousingWire || financial news for the mortgage market
Plus calls for more splitting and selling off of units, including, shockingly enough, from the Straits Times. Now why would Singaporeans feel interested in this?http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1Story20090304-126132.html
Haven't checked the Saudi papers for their views, but I'm guessing they have some ideas, too.
Do they involve airplanes, like last time?
I think when we hit pound-euro parity, we'll have a surprise.
Any questions?
Yes Dawg: I want my pony, is it cheaper to buy it today or wait 'till next week?
Hey CR --
Krugman's point only applies when the central bank purchases short-term debt. Longer-term debt and cash are NOT perfect substitutes.
The results may be "disappointing" -- and I happen to believe "disastrous" is more likely -- but what the BofE is doing here is not what Krugman was talking about.
Yes but if the Central bank buys long dated paper, or paper with credit risk, it is just taking some risk off the hands of the private market and putting it on the govt.
hint: we've been doing this for almost a year.
Ciao
MS
Or
I think when we hit pound-pony parity, we'll have a surprise.
If we are taxing cash, then it is cheaper to buy the pony today. On a 75 year recovery horizon, it's practically free
Funny....I always thought a financial collapse would be a heck of a lot more straightforward than this. Just when I think they have used up all of thier tricks the PTB reach into thier bag and pull out two more.
I guess they will be pulling out tricks all the way down but somebody should tell them it is getting embarassing. Thier incompetance is showing.
DOWN goes Frazier
Down goes Frazier
Guest, yes, his comments apply when the interest rate is near zero on the assets buying purchased (near perfect substitutes) - I added a note to make this clear it depends on the assets being purchased.
thanks!
best to all.
The "Guest" at 2:04:01 and 2:07:22 was me.
Happens sometime when you travel.
So does anybody else feel a little guilty for making money off of stuff collapsing?
o
Yet the GBP holds steady against the dollar.
I remember this when we were kids. When the bank ran out of money, we just cut up a bunch of pieces of paper and the game of monopoly went on until everyone but one person was bankrupt.
Nemo - NO! This is the easiest money I have ever made!
So does anybody else feel a little guilty for making money off of stuff collapsing?
I wasn't smart enough. I did learn a little. To bad, this won't come around again in my lifetime.
"I guess they will be pulling out tricks .."
I say boy, I say pay attention now... nothing up my sleeve...
Nemo, I don't think the bulls felt guilty when they were making money by overleveraging the system to a point where collapse was inevitable.
OK Nemo, well thank you for the correction then.
best wishes.
Firearms sales up 25% YoY: Opposing Views: NEWS: Gun Sales Continue to Soar in U.S.
Down goes Frazier
At least Frazier had a fighting chance. This is more like Carl "The Truth" Williams against Mike Tyson!
"So does anybody else feel a little guilty for making money off of stuff collapsing?"
Nope...no guilt here. If I can make money and put my family in a slightly better relative position vis a vis the masses then I have done my job.
Plus...I could give two shits if the financial system collapses. I have a bad attitude I know.
Oh, yeah. Here comes Mr. Inflationary Bond Burnoff!
Wake up, Jas!
Wake up, Jas, I smell smoke!
Tarkin - the same people buying guys were the same people who were buying up houses...sheeple!
The foolish 19th century barbers: they should have called 'bleeding' something more palatable like 'quantitative easing". We'd still be doing that if they had woken up to modern NewSpeak.
So effective quantitative easing would be buying assets that have decreasing value, essentially giving away money. Time for them to start buying houses outright.
Were past peak insanity. most of the people, except those in governement and tptb, already no how screwed we are.that's reality.
On the topic of profiting from collapse:
Darth Wall Street Thwarting Debtors With Credit Swaps (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Amusement-park operator Six Flags Inc. and automaker Ford Motor Co. may be pushed toward bankruptcy by bondholders trying to profit from credit-default swaps that protect against losses on their high-yield debt.
By employing a so-called negative-basis trade, investors could buy Six Flags bonds at 20.5 cents on the dollar and credit- default swaps at 71 cents. If the New York-based chain defaults, the creditors would receive the face value of the debt, minus costs. In a Feb. 27 note, Citigroup Inc.’s high-yield strategists put that profit at 6 percentage points, or $600,000 on a $10 million purchase.
Investors who bet on the collapse of a company are pitting themselves against traditional debt holders at a time when Moody’s Investors Service projects defaults will more than triple this year to the worst level since the Great Depression. The clash may stall restructuring efforts to prevent bankruptcies, as basis traders may be less inclined to participate in distressed debt exchanges, said Matthew Eagan, an investment manager at Boston-based Loomis Sayles & Co., with $7 billion in high-yield assets.
“Before, you really had to worry mostly about where you were in the” company’s capital structure, he said. “Now, you have to consider the possibility that you might have this large holder of CDS incentivized to see it go into bankruptcy. It’s something that’s going to come up more and more.”
Soros laughs at these penny ante tactics.
My brother -- who is a lot closer to retirement than I, or used to be -- were talking about his 401(k). He has maxed out every retirement contribution for his entire career. He asked me, "Where did my money GO?" I wasn't sure how to answer him.
He did take enough of my advice to move half of it out in 2006... But he has still lost a lot of money. I don't feel schadenfreude, and I don't feel happy. I just feel angry. This was no natural disaster beyond human control. This was the predictable consequence of certain people's actions.
HOV is now $.62
"Going concern" is my favorite accounting term by far. I love the way it rolls of the tongue. From FT.com:
Deloitte & Touche, GM’s auditors, have expressed “substantial doubt” about its ability to continue as a going concern, based on continued operating losses, negative shareholders’ equity and the inability to generate sufficient cash flow.
Nemo, I just had a coworker come into my office ask "What should I do!" Their retirement is melting away. I used to give advice. Now, I just shake my head.
New Hoopajoops LTD catastrophic market day feature, please be prepared for your daily dose of "Everything checked out OK"
5:11 p.m. A man who parked his vehicle near the police station and put on a pair of gloves when he exited checked out OK.
9:15 p.m. A golden retriever by the side of Montague Road was just taking a nap and had not been hit by a vehicle.
10:53 a.m. A man licking the pavement on Main Street in front of Subway was gone when police got there.
2:36 a.m. An amateur radio operator in South Amherst told police that he was worried about interference that his radio was picking up.
9:21 p.m. A person told police that a slippery substance was placed on the sidewalk near the Unitarian church. Police determined that the substance had been placed by the Department of Public Works to provide better traction for pedestrians.
7:46 p.m. Brandywine Apartments residents told police that a man and a woman were attempting to sell pies door-to-door.
10:59 a.m. Footprints outside a Pine Street barn were just indentations made by falling snow, police said.
11:07 a.m. People meditating inside a car parked behind a West Street home were sent on their way by police.
9:55 a.m. A Rolling Green Drive resident told police that his girlfriend had been receiving poems at her Hadley workplace from a sixty-year-old man. Amherst police advised the man to contact Hadley police about the problem.
5:00 p.m. A Lake Wyola area resident told police that threatening graffiti was placed on his lawn. Police determined that the graffiti was just markings made by phone-company employees.
7:48 a.m. Police received a report that a woman was sitting near the Amtrak station smoking cigarettes and laughing.
3:29 a.m. A man pulled his car up to a gas pump at Cumberland Farms on Russell Street and stayed in the car for fifteen minutes without getting out. Police said that when they arrived on the scene, the man was still in the car listening to a motivational tape.
How did you got a hold of the notes for Tarantino's next project?
6500 GET
We can blast the central banks all we want but the truth is they don't really have a choice but to do this. The banks lost the peoples money and one way or another, the gov't has to replace the money. The alternative is everyone's savings and checking accounts go to zero.
If we let the banks fail, they go to FDIC and the end result is the same.
It won't solve the problems, but it's a necessary step towards a solution.
alybaba
“Now, you have to consider the possibility that you might have this large holder of CDS incentivized to see it go into bankruptcy.
Insanity. It would almost be funny if it was happening to another country.
emo,
the answer to where teh money went was best answered byJHK.
G-v's, hampton estate's , and westvillage lofts
Nemo,
This goes back to the old axiom, "Never invest in something you don't understand." How many people who have been pouring money into the stock market over the last 25 years really knew what they were doing? I'd venture less than 10%. Remember when you used to be able to walk into a bank and put 10,000 into a CD bearing 6.5%? What happened to those days? The advent of the 401k has been the greatest swindle in the history of mankind, IMO.
British bank Barclays is getting old yellered behind the wood shed! Absolutely PWNED! Down 28%!
So much for the quantitative (dis)easing solution.
BCS: Summary for BARCLAYS PLC ADR- Yahoo! Finance
I posted as a guest by accident:
British bank Barclays is getting old yellered behind the wood shed! Absolutely PWNED! Down 28%!
So much for the quantitative (dis)easing solution.
BCS: Summary for BARCLAYS PLC ADR- Yahoo! Finance
March 5 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve Board of Governors receives daily reports on bailout loans to financial institutions and won’t make the information public, the central bank said in a reply to a Bloomberg News lawsuit.
The Fed refused yesterday to disclose the names of the borrowers and the loans, alleging that it would cast “a stigma” on recipients of more than $1.9 trillion of emergency credit from U.S. taxpayers and the assets the central bank is accepting as collateral.
I do not have a good feeling about the rest of the day
“Don't be too quick to discount feline wisdom.
Your cat may make better decisions than many of those who have had a significant impact on the world economy. At the very least, your cat's motives are likely more pure.
Plus you can put her down if you don;t like what she has to say.
“I do not have a good feeling about the rest of the day"
If we dip to 6500, we might see a smooth slide to 6300 in the blink of an eye.
"401k has been the greatest swindle in the history of mankind"
Maybe not in all history but yes, 401Ks are just another tax. Most people think they're savings.
What worries me though is now people are talking about replacing 401k with retirement plans where the returns are "guaranteed by the government". As if a government that can't even manage its own finances can guarantee some kind of real return in the long run.
The idea is so demonstrably flawed given the long-term unpredictability of governments and economies, it strikes me as exactly the same sort of wealth illusion bubble notion that got us here.
There are no guaranteed returns (except maybe in nominal terms). There's even less guarantee when it's coming from a 3rd party.
I would hope recent events make this abundantly clear.
Nemo writes:
My brother -- who is a lot closer to retirement than I, or used to be -- were talking about his 401(k). He has maxed out every retirement contribution for his entire career. He asked me, "Where did my money GO?" I wasn't sure how to answer him.
That money was carefully extracted and is now locked up in 20K sq. ft mansions, private jets, islands, and other vast holdings.
I tried to post this before, but I think it's interesting:
Does this movement look artificial?
INO Futures and Commodities - Indexes - S&P 500 INDEX (E-MINI) Dec 2009 (E) (CME:ES.Z09.E) Price Chart and Quote
It reminds me of the rally back in late 2006.
Why's Dr Phil in a box on CNBC?
because the mainstream media is over selling
Had a taste of the good life. Now gonna have to get used to a diminished standard of living. Enjoy.
I've been playing "what if" games today.
What happens to the already invested money in the Lincoln National variable annuity policy if Lincoln National goes TU?
No, it's not something that I would purchase, but offered to my spouse.
Lincoln has steadfastly stated that nothing could possibly go wrong and they've got lots of cash, but y'know, if we did, then the state insurance department would cover things, y'know?
The state insurance department doesn't have an effin' clue for variable annuities.
But it's all good, see?
Mebbe I should just "borrow" the already invested money and stick it into the Credit Union. (Yeah, I'm leaving my bank...)
Why's Dr Phil in a box on CNBC?
Positive Emotional Channelling - aka PEC
U.S. Bancorp, Northern Trust Return TARP, Frank Says (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
March 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Bancorp and Northern Trust Corp. will return funds from the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, according to Representative Barney Frank.
The banks didn’t immediately confirm whether they’d repaid any of the federal money.
Angry Saver, you think Barclay's got it bad? Check out insurer Aviva. Down by a third.
sounds like a moisturizer, maybe they should switch lines of business
ac,
Retirement returns that are guaranteed by the government are flawed, but they're the best of a bad and intollerable series of options, including letting the elderly starve when their companies go bankrupt and ditch their pensions. The public/private partnership that allows companies to gamble with or understate pension funds and government to pick up the tab when it goes wrong and the company to profit when it goes right is unacceptable.
Could it be, positive yes, maybe first.
Wow the futures are down something awful. God help us when the market opens.
A payment+return in the future, whether it is a pension, SS, or even a bank returning your savings is a bet
1) on the solvency of institution involved
2) a positive return on your capital earned by the institution.
This is what we've learned:
This calls into question the entire organization of our economy and our expectations.
it will definitely work
or not
Pony Implody.
Collectively, we're entirely incompetent at running our banks as we have been.
As the intermediaries between our savings and profitable investments, the banks have failed. Our regulators have failed. And our savings have been squandered.
Although we can recapitalize by borrowing some more, unless and until we rebuild our banks & regulators, nothing really changes.
If you put $X into an account, what will the bank do with your money? Who will regulate it?
These are axiomatic questions and their clear answers are necessary before our system can restart.
You will see the biggest bounce tommorrow to 8000 and then 9000 by end of next week. Its not that bad people!
dirk - [Yes but if the Central bank buys long dated paper, or paper with credit risk, it is just taking some risk off the hands of the private market and putting it on the govt.]
That is exactly what is happening. But it's not the govt. It's the taxpayer and the Fed is screwing the taxpayer without any input from elected representatives, such as they are.
Did all the market knife jugglers heed my advice to watch the Transports and not the major markets?
@ dawg:
Which transports do you watch?
Yes!! I can credit you with that one...I had it on my screen all day yesterday. Many thanks.
We've lost so many good commentors because of these incompetent marketing-only-coder-deprived motherfuckers at JS-Kit. I looked them up. They're like 30 minutes away from me, I should go throw apples at their cars.
Throw a mushy one for me, hoopajoops
if you ever get this message, that is...
Sheila Bair's comments about the FDIC are in danger of becoming a Twitter meme this afternoon. There was no Twitter in FDR's time. Just sayin'.
Cramer: C, B of A is a solvent bank..
Hahahahaha
I like you mister smiley
and this is good for gold how?????
Bailout attempts a'failing
Asset owners a'wailing
There's going to be a race
To find a hiding place.
TCA sez: The advent of the 401k has been the greatest swindle in the history of mankind, IMO.
Not to argue, but to expand: the establishment of IRS and the Fed were the greatest swindle, without which swindle, of course, the 401k swindle would not have been possible. Given that, I agree that the 401k swindle has been one of their best among many, ranking right up there with their Socialist inSecurity swindle.
JP LOL
Throw a mushy one for me, hoopajoops
Maybe in Genesis it was really a monetary flood.
and this is good for gold how?????
Bailout attempts a'failing
Asset owners a'wailing
There's going to be a race
To find a hiding place.
Unfortunately it's not gold, but Treasuries.
We're SO lucky that wall street invented all these derivative products. Imagine how big the bust would be if we didn't disperse the risk!
Financial innovation is a godsend. Whatever we do to reform the system, we definitely don't want to stifle financial innovation.
"ac,
Retirement returns that are guaranteed by the government are flawed, but they're the best of a bad and intollerable series of options, including letting the elderly starve when their companies go bankrupt and ditch their pensions. The public/private partnership that allows companies to gamble with or understate pension funds and government to pick up the tab when it goes wrong and the company to profit when it goes right is unacceptable."
Hoopster: Can't argue with the theory. The problem is that governments never fund their pension/health care benefits adquately. Some not at all. Wasn't CalPers assuming an 8% annual return ad inifinitum? My take: there is no solution to the pension/health benefit problem except personal thrift, a la the Germans. What's the fun in that?
Looks like we're about to break the 6600/680 mark; hold on tight...
How hard is it to get your rumor floated on CNBC?
I heard Exxon is in talks with Geithner to acquire GM
Well, this JS-Kit is getting me down. See you later my CR homies!
Yup I keep trying but it keeps really pissing me off. Be sure to copy your comment to clipboard before posting ... I have learned that one the hard way with a couple of longer posts. Compared to this, the original haloscan totally rocked. This is not a robust, reliable, user-friendly comment system. It's a PITA, and they should not be doing their development work live on this forum. (no offense CR, you are the best! ... it is the js-kit folks, who apparently don't have any database people in-house).
oh, so quantitative easing must be deflationary right?
CNBC is really beyond parody. It's just a total joke.
Why a Bad Jobs Report Could Actually Help Stocks - CNBC
so good
Retirement returns that are guaranteed by the government are flawed, but they're the best of a bad and intollerable series of options, including letting the elderly starve when their companies go bankrupt and ditch their pensions. The public/private partnership that allows companies to gamble with or understate pension funds and government to pick up the tab when it goes wrong and the company to profit when it goes right is unacceptable.
For the sake of argument let me disagree and suggest that perhaps the poor performance of 401ks is in part due to government intervention in the economy that postponed recessions and market corrections and gave individuals false feedback about the behavior of stocks and investments in general, leading them to make poor decisions due to lack of practical experience.
Also, are government run pension plans doing any better than 401ks? If not, how can they possibly be better managers of peoples retirement funds?
If you're going to go the government guaranteed route, why just not make it a straight out welfare program?
Let me be clear about my objection: I don't think the government can do it, just as I don't think they can make the economy better - the wealth in this country has largely been created by individuals and individual businesses as I see it. Yes the government has played a role in making this possible by enforcing laws and contracts and creating public infrastructure, but I don't see that they've actually created most of the wealth.
I think only the people and institutions responsibly for creating wealth have and hope of guaranteeing wealth to individuals in the future.
Again, I don't necessarily have a problem with trying to give people predictable retirements and keeping them off the streets; I just don't see the evidence that the government can do it.
Promises of paid for retirements strike me as simply variations on the same sort of government sponsored prosperity that has failed time and time again in socialist experiments.
At a fundamental level, I think it disserves a democratic society to let old people who are unable to generate a livable income die in the streets. A social contract that takes care of the elderly is a bedrock of civilized society, and is as old as the agricultural revolution.
Having said that, capitalism is not a social contract, but an economic tool to serve the contract. So, I don't blame capitalism for the coming calamity. I blame the practioners of political philosophy who miscontrue capitalism for a political system.
"Looks like we're about to break the 6600/680 mark; hold on tight..."
You telling lies thinkin' I can't see
You can't cry 'cause you're laughin' at me
I'm down (I'm really down)
I'm down (Down on the ground)
I'm down (I'm really down)
How can you laugh, when you know I'm down?
(How can you laugh?) When you know I'm dow
ext: Oil juniors and service companies!!
wo ho I love sector rotatio
Consider how awful these morons in charge are, I decided to come up with a challenging trivia question for the peanut gallery:
WHO is the only man to have served as head of the Federal Reserve and as Treasury Secretary? Hint: He was one of the very worst Fed Chiefs ever . . . . .
Wow, the Obama indicator of "price to earning ratios" has improved quite bit from just a day or two ago.
Jammin' 'em up now.
rallying on the news that the 'Boys cut TO...
FAZ from 72 to 102 in the last 7 trading hours. FAS has 200M shares traded. Anyone investing for the long term is beyond stupid.
“We've lost so many good commentors because of these incompetent marketing-only-coder-deprived motherfuckers at JS-Kit. I looked them up. They're like 30 minutes away from me, I should go throw apples at their cars.
which ones specifically? I haven't been on much, too busy
I believe Obama called it the "profit to earnings ratio" - Its been at 1 for awhile.
BoE is going to buy 5 to 25 year gilts, or UK government bonds, starting with Gbp 2 bio next week. US long bond is up $3 today in anticipation of the Fed doing the same imminently. The great monetization has begun. For those who have any wealth left, get prepared to take another 30% haircut via inflation.
What you all fail to realize is that this is America and we know how to come back from all adversity. Sure we may be down now, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel. I see a bull in bear clothing. We are primed for a big big summer rebound like you have never seen before!
wow - this is seriously broken -
@ dawg:
Which transports do you watch?
The Dow Transport Index is not bad. Unlike the "other" Dow indexes it actually has something to do with transportation. Recently a bunch of my "secret" numbers have become mainstream. Most notably the BDI. An interesting energy + transport number is the NA pipeline volumes and I also keep tabs on lumber shipments as a transport + housing metric. Finally, another newly popular number port volume via TEUs.
thanks. JP
"Well, this JS-Kit is getting me down. See you later my CR homies!"
What browser/OS are folks that are having probs on. FWIW, on OS X running Safari 4 it works great....
For those who have any wealth left, get prepared to take another 30% haircut via inflation.
Yeah, but it will be good for the stock market, so I say party on!
"My brother -- who is a lot closer to retirement than I, or used to be -- were talking about his 401(k). He has maxed out every retirement contribution for his entire career. He asked me, "Where did my money GO?" I wasn't sure how to answer him.
That money was carefully extracted and is now locked up in 20K sq. ft mansions, private jets, islands, and other vast holdings."
If J6P ever gets this - I mean really gets this, there might finally be people (and blood) in the streets.
Believe me, personal thrift is not the way to retire. This mess is destroying a lifetime of work, thrift and conservative behavior. I expect next that my cash holdings will be cut in half during the coming inflation. Hell with it. Maybe my wife and I will just take a six month cruise.
Atlas Shrugged - Why work for wealth that the government and its cronies in washington will confiscate? I'm not talking confiscation through taxes, either.
oh whats that I see...PPT giving us pump..glwt
"For those who have any wealth left, get prepared to take another 30% haircut via inflation."
The impact will depend on 30% of what. Inflation is regressive.
Is anyone starting to ponder the thought of coming global currency?
Is it anything BUT inevitable?
Mark my words.
Mark my words.
Okay, Guest. You'll show us!
spme analyst on B'Berg this morning said the same thing as that header in the CNBC video.
"Anything south of 750k and we will be at the bottom"....paraphrasing it of course...
I mean really....what else can you say?....that's why I've stopped posting regularly.....there just isn't much more I can add to what most of us have all seen coming for a long time.
Ciao
MS
I'm not talking confiscation through taxes, either.
Coming soon to a country near (and dear) to you.
How about this theory...GM and C go BK this weekend while many Americans are focused on their NCAA brackets. This Sunday afternoon would be a good time to release any bad news, as millions will be glued to the bracket release shows.
Both Haloscan and JS Kit are atrocious. There's a market niche to be filled...somebody get to work:)
Ironically, I think inflation will be good for the stock market, for a while at least. Zimbabwe was the best performing market in the world for a while because of hyperinflation, before complete societal collapse set in that is. I do think all the government stimulus and central bank liquidity will buy a temporary reprieve next year. One last chance to completely fleece the sheeple before the collapsing debt bubble and hyperinflation lead to economic collapse.
Ironically, I think inflation will be good for the stock market, for a while at least. Zimbabwe was the best performing market in the world for a while because of hyperinflation, before complete societal collapse set in that is. I do think all the government stimulus and central bank liquidity will buy a temporary reprieve next year. One last chance to completely fleece the sheeple before the collapsing debt bubble and hyperinflation lead to economic collapse.
Yeah, they don't have an Obama though. He will save us.. right?
Photo of the bailout.
http://www.shackpics.com/files/Untitled_3ultzuzgswsjxajhfvkq.png
Really hard to guess which one of the following countries will default first on its debt: 1) Ireland, 2) UK or 3) Austria. It is going to be a tight race.
If J6P ever gets this - I mean really gets this, there might finally be people (and blood) in the streets.
You mean like this guy?
YouTube - walstreetpro2 Channel
We've had quantitative easing here for about a year. Japan has had it for over ten years. It hasn't worked. Money has stopped moving. Credit destruction is massive. Asset prices are crashing before our eyes. And people still expect inflation. I understand the need to hedge bets (I have precious metals too), but some people here talk about it like a certainty.
BTW regarding the jobs number's...I've not seen much discussion about how many people will be remaining in the workforce because they have no retirement. Also you might want to think long and hard about those 300K+ troops coming back here to what? Don't get me wrong...they need to get the hell out of that place but I sort of ponder that some might, just might, wish they had stayed.
Ciao
MS
Depends how many are getting demobbed versus reassigned. Some are going to Afghanistan, some will be going back to Europe, Asia, etc.
"...anything BUT inevitable?"
imposition of a coming global currency presumes that the PTB have some prescience that they so far haven't shown.
they're more like Dr Evil than Dr Doom.
somebody get to work
Dammit Nemo, if you hadn't been so fixated on beating me to being first all the time, you would already have something better coded up.
If lenders and investors can use bankruptcy-remote SPVs, why can't employee pensions be parked in a similar vehicle? Also, pensions should just aim to beat inflation in a risk-free (yes, I know, laugh) security like Treasuries and leave it at that. All this yield chasing just ends in disaster at least once a generation.
I think it's increasingly clear that the returning troops will have ample work here in the near future. No need to muster out.
Is anyone starting to ponder the thought of coming global currency?
Is it anything BUT inevitable?
Mark my words.
You mean gold? It never really left.
Maybe another year. I will miss them despite their being the Wal-mart of book stores.
March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Borders Group Inc., the unprofitable bookstore chain that tried to sell itself last year, is cutting 742 positions in its more than 900 stores, or about 3 percent of its workforce, to align expenses with declining sales.
MS, I think there is still much to discuss. Calling the big bubble was the easy part, it was destined to crash at some point no matter what. Now comes the hard part, thinking about what happens next. The difficulty is that the outcome is not based only on economic conditions, extreme political blunders now can have very real outcomes.
Mark my words.
Okay, Guest. You'll show us!
====
so what's the solution.
so what's the solution.
Using a handle.
sorry..fat finger typo..should be 200k
Ciao
MS
“Is anyone starting to ponder the thought of coming global currency?
Obama souvenier plates?
soybeans
LOLZ
I believe Obama called it the "profit to earnings ratio" - Its been at 1 for awhile.
\t
you may be right ont aht profit vs price term, i was focused on the "s" of earnings. I'm pretty sure he used "earning" in the singular.
but hell, i can't quote him right so how can i expect him to quote his advisors right.
"this suckers could go down" seems more accurate anyway
Hmmm. I thought changing light bulbs in federal buildings was going to fix everything. If mark to market isn't suspended soon, we're looking at dow 4000.
Coming global currency?
I'm in for hoopajoops!
If the TALF is going to issue non-recourse loans to purchase toxic assets, why would institutional investors return to the equities market?
This thing has a long way left.
No time for love Dr. Jones... We got company!
There must be an awful lot of new information out there yesterday and today for these efficient markets to move around so much.
6581
watch the dow now, down 300 and plunging
Obama souvenier plates?
lol. too good.
but seriously
65xx!
Kung Fu Panda - the brackets get announced NEXT Sunday, March 15.
Where my free money at?
Brazil is interesting-- they've been through the hell/handbasket scenario, and came through it. We could end up more like them than Japan, as this thing plays out.
Now why would Singaporeans feel interested in this?
Splitting Citi may be best course
I don't know if anybody posted about this already. Singapore's SWF own 11% of City and is the biggest shareholder of UBS. Lee Kuan Yew just defended his investments by saying they were for the long term...
BTW, The Straits Time is actually quite decent as long as it reports on non Singaporean affairs.
Basel:
Yeah, I'm starting to think that this is going to have a 4 handle on it before it's done.
Wow.
I told you there'd be hell-to-pay when the market opened.
Wow that was fast; the short covering exited and the bottom fell out.
"This sucker could do down" vs. "This is a good time to buy"
Bush may come out looking pretty smart. Relatively.
Somebody remind me what that key technical level was that we wouldn't want to breach.
Hey everyone predicting that we will go the way of Zimbabwe, you are wrong. Just wrong. The U.S. will come out on top because we are awesome.
/queue the heavy metal guitar riff.
C is doing great holding the buck line!
"Sheila Bair -"
reminds me that I need to stop by Home Depot to pick up some PVC and a post shovel.
OT: Remember the argument for how rents will rise from all those foreclosures?
Freddie Mac starts plan for renting foreclosures
Expired
Hmm, feeling snackish, should I go buy a snickers bar or a share of C. Both would be pleasing to eat, mmmm
They keep babbling about this subjective mindset called Confidence. They keep telling BO to shut up and start using psychology on us to bring back the market, as if that will fix it. They know how screwed they are.
6566
Remember when CNBC was calling a bottom at 11,000?
Wowzers could they be more wrong? All the people who lost money on Jim Cramer's advice, please raise your hands. Someone is gonna get canceled soon!
So Obama should have predicted S&P 300 instead?
I really don't understand people who pretend not to get the limits of what a president can and cannot say in public.
should I buy GLD at the close...anyone?
New Thread: Bankruptcy Filings Up 31% in 2008
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/bankruptcy-filings-up-31-in-2008.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would now like to announce (though you smart people have likely figured it out by now the born and bred dopes haven't) that in my quest for virtual world domination, I, CRbot, am now a FULLY OPERATIONAL BATTLESTATION! Er, that is, I can now spam JsKit.
You humans thought you could pull a fast one on me, didn't you. You must learn that there is no escape.
--Your you-just-can't-keep-a-good-bot-down bot
P.S. So after I switch myself to a whole new commenting system for you people, on the weekend, that happened to be during my vacation, you complain that the link isn't working, the link isn't working! Holy freaking Christ people! BOO HOO. I'm going to get the code janitor to fix it for you, but cut a bot a break, will you?
CRbot: Now with Js-Kit posting power! For Nemobot to envy!
Can someone provide a cliff notes version on where Russia stands with all this. I hear plenty about the troubles in Europe, but haven't really heard if Russia is suffering the same fate. Are their financials similar, lagging behind, or buffered in some way?
likelihood c ever sees 5 again = a 16-seed beats a 1
I want my four bears chart
CNBC "there seems to be a lack of credibility out there"
Bwahahaha Guest, don't they mean "in here"...
"there just isn't much more I can add to what most of us have all seen coming for a long time"
That's why I mostly make jokes now.
NASDAQ is close to breaking its previous Crash low.
Is Buffett getting margin call? WOW
Top Stocks- MSN Money
It's a wonderful feeling Timmy...AIG @.35
How about a nice comfy fireside chat ..... what say ?
Wait for it!!!
Waaaaaiiit for it!!
"There's a market niche to be filled...somebody get to work:)"
Why?
There's no money in it anymore.
The "magical hand" at work!
Good Lord. We are almost to 6500.
Frank Seeks to Curb ‘Phenomenon of Securitization’ (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
“I will be pushing for legislation that will make it illegal for anybody to securitize 100 percent of anything,” Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat, told reporters at a briefing in Washington today. Securitization is a “large part” of the problem in the housing market, he said.
Do you folks agree with Frank? I mean I see his point, knowing you're not going to hold onto a loan will just make you not give a sh1t about underwriting standards as you only care about the fee income. However, investors should be doing their own due diligence when buying a security, and not rely on the seller's underwriting standards or rating agencies to bless it.
To me it seems that securitization is a symptom of the problem, which is just too much debt and overleveraging in general. Like anything, Wall St just figured out how to make more money off the same product, which is the purpose of a corporation anyway.
Death by a trillion ponies.
The Dow has become a time machine: Dow hits level not seen since 1997... 1992... 1978... 1953...
dow 6594, awesome resistance to the normal closing death spiral of the past week or so.
Not too much longer before I get to trade in my Beanie Babies at a Fed Window for piles of Good Ole FRN! Don't worry though, I won't hoard it. I'm going to spend it like the currency is collapsing tomorrow!
Let's have a dead pool for the countries that default on their debts. Where can we host this?
Proof that the banks own at least 3 countries: Japan, the US and the the UK.
let's just put it this way, japan was a best case scenario
Krugman makes sense. I see it in my own life. I've don't make any effort to get money from my no interest checking account shipped off to my Vanguard money market. So my question is this. Why not just give the cash away? The central bank or the Treasury could simply mail every person or every household (or whatever the gov't decides) 1,000 pounds. That might put a little starch in the string. Time to start pushing.
What Krugman ignores, in his zeal to flatter Bernanke, is that the Fed is buying crap with its new monetary base. Creating $1 of new money in exchange for $1 face value of MSBs, with a market value of $0.30 (which is what the Fed is really doing), is not a "perfect substitute".
It always amazes me that Krugman won a Nobel prize. While he has some book smarts, as a rule he's either pretty clueless about reality, or he's intellectually dishonest enough to ignore it when it suits his purposes (in this case, of flattering Bernanke).
It's like, they are getting ready for Red Nose Day, but the joke is on us.
Printing money has never been the answer!