Citizen AllenM says: Today, 6:03:02 AM
“Gee, not much surprise here.
Now is everybody happy with there "capitulation" and 6500?
Capitulation? You think this is capitulation? I've seen capitulation and this isn't even desperation. Capitulation is when the ticker can't keep up. Capitulation is when NBC affiliates break live to the trading floor. Capitulation is when a prince or [robber]baron is reported to have traded out in huge blocks. Heck, there is still trading going on. That'll get out of the way when we get our capitulation disinvestment event[s].
Capitulation is when no one cares about stocks - much like the America of the 1950s, the Germany of the 1970s, the Russia of the 1990s, and it is reasonable enough to assume, the Japan of 2009 - if only because the yen is much more important than the Nikkei to the actual Japanese economy.
" The change in total nonfarm employment for December was revised from -577,000 to -681,000 and the change for January was revised from -598,000 to -655,000. " Employment Situation Summary
No comment CR? No comment about this now being officially a severe recession, by your own definition? No comment that you didn't think we were going to see this? No comment about how there doesn't seem to be any reason to think this is nearing a bottom?
--
Reminds me of my favorite rogue economist Ed Leamer of UCLA Andersen Forecast. You need to reed his economic forecast commnets for the past 18 months to see what I mean.
Rogue economists make a point to be late in making negative forecasts, sometimes very late. They are so bad that they wouldn't confirm even after the fact until later.
Rugue economists are the nexus between BBAD and the Crooks that manipulate the US economy. Their main task is propaganda.
CNBC anchors are hinting that recession may be over since unemployment usually peaks after a recession ends. They are also cheering that the numbers came in close to expectations.
What a bunch of idiots. Yes. Unemployment will peak -- in about 20 months. If you're one of the 15 million who will lose their job in the next two years, you really won't care if the recession is "technically" over. Right now even "survival" jobs at Wal-Mart and McDonalds are unavailable.
So... anyone remember the JPM slides when they took over WM and their loss sensitivities with respect to unemployment rate? Their "severe" scenario has just been overtaken. And that's just the headline SA value. The NSA value was 8.9%! The gap between SA and NSA closed 0.1 but it's still pretty wide by historical measures. It wouldn't surprise me to see it close further for March - but not in the direction we would probably like.
What I want to know is, who were the analysts predicting less than 7.9% that allowed the consensus to be that value. Are they trapped under a refrigerator and had sent in their projections early?
Perhaps never before have so many banks’ balance sheets been so patently full of hot air
Wells Fargo & Co. said its loans were worth $14.2 billion less than their book value
Wells Fargo’s tangible common equity was $13.5 billion as of Dec. 31. On a fair-value basis, it was negative $133 million. That makes the bank’s $40.9 billion stock-market capitalization look awfully rich.....
This was being set up yesterday. I remember seeing a headline that claimed a worse-than-expected employment report would be good for the market. Now, I really don't know one way or another, but it does seem a bit like propaganda.
“Maybe we’re starting to get to where we’re at the high point of unemployment, and maybe we plateau from here,” said Jason Cooper, who helps manage $3 billion at 1st Source Investment Advisors in South Bend, Indiana. “We’ll probably have a good day today because you didn’t see any huge surprises.”
I came across this on Craigslist while I was checking tools and generators for sale. During the 81 recession the WaPo used to run ads that said: Will do anything - go anywhere for cash Until they quit because people complained that they might be hired assasins or some such craziness
I am an electrician, over 15yrs in the trade, work has been very slow. We have been struggling just to eat not counting mortgage. I am an honest hard working American man who is just trying to keep it together. I am looking for some extra work t do on the weekends or during the week after 3pm
ova says: I am an honest hard working American man who is just trying to keep it together. I am looking for some extra work t do on the weekends or during the week after 3pm
Modern electronic version of "brother can you spare a dime for an American down on his luck."
Please don't shoot me....but, Feb was the first month since June 2007 we actually had a net increase in employees, what this means who knows, our area of California was in recession starting the summer of 2007 (our company is about $300million in rev, so we are small, but....), and Jan and Feb were two very profitable months...
debt level is zero (I am the controller, and very conservative financially). Cash level is also very high, we slashed dividends to almost zero about a year ago...
I have been on these blogs too long to give too many details...but we are in Ag, CRE and retail. (the retail, at least for us, has been flat for a few months and our expense cuts are now very much in line with the new lower revenue numbers)...who knows maybe another leg down, but not yet..
The rule is to make a profit. The level of retail is of secondary importance. There is some survival level of retail and profit of course, but the rule is make a profit.
maybe we read different versions of the AP story. the one I saw at the NYT did not have the stuff about expectations you paraphrase.
But it did have an unsourced estimate for expected unemployment going over 9% in 2009, thus exceeding the supposedly unlikely adverse case of 8.9% posited by the bank stress tests.
AP is pulling that figure from somewhere, I would guess from some govt agency or major private sector institution. That 9% is probably optimistic is not the only issue. Strategically it might be better to focus on the undercutting of the stress test expectation by the govt itself:
President Barack Obama is counting on a multipronged assault to lift the country out of recession: a $787 billion stimulus package of increased federal spending and tax cuts; a revamped, multibillion-dollar bailout program for the nation's troubled banks; and a $75 billion effort to stem home foreclosures.
Even in the best-case scenario that the relief efforts work and the recession ends later in 2009, the unemployment rate is expected to keep climbing, hitting 9 percent or higher this year.
President Barack Obama is counting on a multipronged assault to lift the country out of recession:
Christina Romer (Head of Obama's Council of Economic Advisors) just advised that GDP will turn positive in 2nd half '09 with employment improving shortly thereafter. (CNBC clip should be in an hour or so)
Lets see. They under-reported the last two months of unemployment by 80K each month. I'd guess with the Fed's history in reporting levels, it's safe to assume an additional 80K this month as well. A real report of 730,000 new unemployed is just not acceptable in the "REAL WORLD" through the eyes of the magicians.
That's just when I came out of college. Had a large stack of rejection letters and actually threw somebody out of my room when he pissed about a lousy grade he was getting...
I forget, which sector does your company represent?
On the fed contracting side, some are doing well, others not so much, smaller ones struggling under continuing resolution funding (or lack of funding).
However, CA has so much farther to fall. I was there for the 81-82 recession, which in reality seemed to end around 89/90.
As for the WFC divvie cut... Who couldn't see something like this coming? Back in September they raised $2B @ 9.75% in a bond, that was on the back of a dividend raise of 10% at a cost of about $4.5B.
I recall (fuzzy at best) that you made some reference to what you thought the unemployment rate might reach some time back. I think you did it more informally in the comments and you left the anaylsis speak for itself.
Just wondering if you would care to comment on where unemployment might end up in this recession? Or too difficult to tell?
The NY times has some great graphs on its frontpage right now. Check out number 4 that shows duration of unemployment -it shows how weak the job market's really been for years. It never recovered from the previous recessio
found the AP post you paraphrased, a diffenent article than the one I posted about. here's the quote you referenced:
"The [unempolyment] readings were worse than consensus estimates. But many market participants had braced for even grimmer data, shorting stocks earlier in the week, so stock futures pared losses and turned higher ahead of the market's open Friday."
The NY times has some great graphs on its frontpage right now. Check out number 4 that shows duration of unemployment -it shows how weak the job market's really been for years. It never recovered from the previous recessio
The epicenter of the trouble is Merrill’s markets operation, headed by Thomas K. Montag. Mr. Montag, a former Goldman Sachs trader who was brought in by John A. Thain, Merrill’s fallen chief executive, has become a divisive figure inside Bank of America. He is trying to retain his top producers amid the furor over Merrill’s bonuses. He flew to Charlotte this week to strategize with deputies from around the world.
crispy & cole says:
Today, 9:26:35 AM “Please don't shoot me....but, Feb was the first month since June 2007 we actually had a net increase in employees
Man you deserve praise! Why would we be angry, you're like America's one remaining responsible financial officer. We need to clone you and spread your demon children through the corporate system. Good luck managing the opportunities that come your way in the years ahead.
I just bought 500 shares of C. I don't think C is worth anything, but for $1/share I'm willing to bet the gov't keeps them propped up long enough so they'll eventually be worth something. I don't see them going to $0.
8.1% of the fit, healthy and actively seeking employment are totally without employment and are claiming unemployment benefits.
Between that 8.1% and whatever % of people are gainfully employed are:
Those whose benefits have ran out.
Those in part time employment.
Those who are disabled.
Those who are not actively seeking employment.
Those whose unemployment is attributed to 'seasonal' or other measures that are conned out of the figures...
etc, etc, etc...
Smacktle says:
Today, 9:45:16 AM “Not to diss anybody without a job or who is struggling, but if 9% of the people are unemployed, doesn't that mean 91% are?
No, headline unemployment is a very special number manufactured for use in popping and propping markets for very special friends of Rick. U-6 is 14.8%. Even this doesn't measure many people.
SGS alternate U-6 offers 18%. That's one in five. In a typical social unit of two nuclear families and a bachelor / spinster, one person has had significantly curtained employment prospects.
Also, unemployment hits different people harder. So, as posted earlier. If you are black, the unemployment rate is much higher. Generally, the most marginal people gain the smallest benefits from the gains and take first losses.
aso, keep in mind, especially looking historically, what can happen to a DINK household. Say one of you pays the mortgage, the other pays the rest, one of you loses your job as a witless cube-farmer. Household disruption mounts faster these days because you're already undergoing forced deleveraging and exploiting your household's labor capacity fully.
I forget, which sector does your company represent?
On the fed contracting side, some are doing well, others not so much, smaller ones struggling under continuing resolution funding (or lack of funding).
However, CA has so much farther to fall. I was there for the 81-82 recession, which in reality seemed to end around 89/90.
This morning the NY Times website has some good graphs on the employment situation, sequentially showing proportion unemployed, under-employed and discarded from the stats due to despair, etc.
FDIC news is very important. Bankers told Bair to go fu$k herself when she tried raising their premiums to increase funding for expected bank failures. Barney Frank said no problem, we'll get the taxpayers to pay for it.
Yeah, it's nuts. What does that say? Yey, that means more profits because there are less people to pay, so buy, buy, buy, even though the laid-off workers can't.
"Between that 8.1% and whatever % of people are gainfully employed are: (fill in all "marginally attached" categories)"
The official BSR unemployment figures are 2X the Fed official U-3. Here in THIS County officially it is 11.1%. This equates to a REAL BSR figure of 22.2% - and probably closer to the unvarnished, easier to digest, no BS, real figure.
Is the news about the FDIC needing $500 billion not important?
I think the conventional wisdom is that this week's angst over the FDIC is politics in action. Sheila has rallied the small banks to her cause by threatening them with steep fee increases. They are frantically calling their friends in congress saying it's the taxpayers' job to bail out C, not theirs. Congress is lining up based on wherever their bacon happens to come from. Etc., etc.
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
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market selloff march5 was setup for nonfarm payrolls, but perhaps shortcovering rally this am will be fatigued/exhausted by this afternoon - btw, weekends used to be bailout watch, but now i think we have to expect that they could be legislative/regulatory programme announcement threats, which might cause more shortcovering on the following monday, but not necessarily - i still interpret legislative/regulatory announcements as confirmations that things are indeed as bad as they seem, or worse
Unemployment rate data coming from US government is as reliable as those five-year tractor production figures of former USSR. Still most newspapers take the data as the gospel of truth. No wonder newspapers are going out of business....
People here should check out the site "Front Porch Republic" Front Porch Republic
It has one interesting article after another that I definitely feel jibes with the overarching Calculated Risk mindset. There's an article today called "No Wealth But Life" that I think people here would like.
Empedocles says:
Today, 10:16:29 AM It has one interesting article after another that I definitely feel jibes with the overarching Calculated Risk mindset.
What is that? "Give me your wallet, motherf*cker!"?
"America is now officially a business tax unfriendly country. No stability and higher future costs. Add in states in default like CA and watch the jobs leave the US. The real question for workers is what jobs will be left and how far down the ladder will I have to settle for?"
....the jobs have already left for places like Mexico, China, Thailand, Vietnam, etc. It might actually benefit the US in that "protectionist" trade strategies will occur worldwide and the natural progression here in The States would be to start manufacturing again - especially with the 3rd World wage deflation attachment.
Twitter is a broadcast instant messaging system. People post short messages to XML feeds that other people are able to view on the web or mobile devices.
Not to diss anybody without a job or who is struggling, but if 9% of the people are unemployed, doesn't that mean 91% are?
Smacktle | Fri, 06 Mar 09 08:45:16 -0600 | #
Erin Burnett, you've been busted!
The Great Depression bottomed out at 25% unemployment, right? Therefore, the vast majority of Americans had jobs! Woo-hoo!
Not to diss anybody without a job or who is struggling, but if 9% of the people are unemployed, doesn't that mean 91% are?
Smacktle | Fri, 06 Mar 09 08:45:16 -0600 | #
Erin Burnett, you've been busted!
The Great Depression bottomed out at 25% unemployment, right? Therefore, the vast majority of Americans had jobs! Woo-hoo!
Uncertainly leads to volatility. It's the volatility/variability that's telling the story. Look at DJ during GD, it fluctuated like crazy, much like now. So if you consider the variability, the market's behavior is consistent. And in the presence of high variability, the actual DJ value at any particular point in time is meaningless.
But then, what do I know. I'm an old fashioned gal who doesn't trade stocks or do anything fancy like that.
I think the real story here is that 161,000 ADDITIONAL jobs were lost just in the revisions to December/ January. The real headline number was over 800,000.
I thought the Birth/Death model revisions in Jan. are supposed to make the data more accurate. THEN WHY WAS DECEMBER REVISED DOWN WITH OVER 100,000 MORE JOB LOSSES????????
It should be mightily obvious that they are gaming the numbers to spread them out.
furst?
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/3585519577894884022
Are we going to change the parameters of the self stress test?
No - Revision of Q4 GDP has had no impact. Why would unemployment be any different
My usual monthly pissing in the wind - While the headline number U3 was an unemployment rate of 8.1%, the more valid(IMO) rate U6 was 14.8%
Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
-K
YAY ! After years, YEARS, CNBC actually put a chart of U6 up and discussed it ! All this penance of pissing in the wind finally worked ?
-K
Proving a stopped clock is right twice a day..
Anyone think that Jon Stewart's kick-in-the-nuts will have an effect over there @ booblevision?
"Anyone think that Jon Stewart's kick-in-the-nuts will have an effect over there @ booblevision?"
Who knows. The impression I get is that it's was response to Santelli's cancellation more than anything else.
Gee, not much surprise here.
Now is everybody happy with there "capitulation" and 6500?
Someday this war's gonna end...
Citizen AllenM says: Today, 6:03:02 AM
“Gee, not much surprise here.
Now is everybody happy with there "capitulation" and 6500?
Capitulation? You think this is capitulation? I've seen capitulation and this isn't even desperation. Capitulation is when the ticker can't keep up. Capitulation is when NBC affiliates break live to the trading floor. Capitulation is when a prince or [robber]baron is reported to have traded out in huge blocks. Heck, there is still trading going on. That'll get out of the way when we get our capitulation disinvestment event[s].
Someday this war's gonna end...
We have always been at war with Oceania.
Capitulation is when no one cares about stocks - much like the America of the 1950s, the Germany of the 1970s, the Russia of the 1990s, and it is reasonable enough to assume, the Japan of 2009 - if only because the yen is much more important than the Nikkei to the actual Japanese economy.
The market says we've reached a bottom! What will they say at 15% unemployment.
8.1% is quite a small percentage. 79.3%, for example, is much larger. So we're doing fine. Tell the whiny 8% to sack up and flip my burger.
what were the revisions?
" The change in total nonfarm employment for December was revised from -577,000 to -681,000 and the change for January was revised from -598,000 to -655,000. "
Employment Situation Summary
No comment CR? No comment about this now being officially a severe recession, by your own definition? No comment that you didn't think we were going to see this? No comment about how there doesn't seem to be any reason to think this is nearing a bottom?
--
Reminds me of my favorite rogue economist Ed Leamer of UCLA Andersen Forecast. You need to reed his economic forecast commnets for the past 18 months to see what I mean.
Rogue economists make a point to be late in making negative forecasts, sometimes very late. They are so bad that they wouldn't confirm even after the fact until later.
Rugue economists are the nexus between BBAD and the Crooks that manipulate the US economy. Their main task is propaganda.
America is screwed.
Jas
Video Explanations Of Fed's Balance Sheet, Monetary Base, Gold Standard, Etc...
Market Skeptics: Video Explanations Of Fed's Balance Sheet, Monetary Base, Gold Standard, Etc...
baseline U3 unemployment for bank stress tests is 8.4% for 2009, adverse is 8.9%.
we're already at 8.1%, and unemployment is a lagging indicator.....
CNBC anchors are hinting that recession may be over since unemployment usually peaks after a recession ends. They are also cheering that the numbers came in close to expectations.
What a bunch of idiots. Yes. Unemployment will peak -- in about 20 months. If you're one of the 15 million who will lose their job in the next two years, you really won't care if the recession is "technically" over. Right now even "survival" jobs at Wal-Mart and McDonalds are unavailable.
So... anyone remember the JPM slides when they took over WM and their loss sensitivities with respect to unemployment rate? Their "severe" scenario has just been overtaken. And that's just the headline SA value. The NSA value was 8.9%! The gap between SA and NSA closed 0.1 but it's still pretty wide by historical measures. It wouldn't surprise me to see it close further for March - but not in the direction we would probably like.
What I want to know is, who were the analysts predicting less than 7.9% that allowed the consensus to be that value. Are they trapped under a refrigerator and had sent in their projections early?
8.1% U3? Try harder BLS. You get a D minus for that report.
Try some U6 to feed into the stress-tests.
C
Since the expectation was that it would come in at 7.9%, things are obviously spiraling out faster than they anticipated.
CNBC is clueless.
Expect another down day.
Gary Shilling Says U.S. Getting 'Close' to Depression
Bloomberg News
--
One of the rare honest economist in the US.
Jas
U6 almost 15%? Mama mia!
Non-seasonally adjusted numbers: U-3 at 8.9%, and U-6 at 16%...
"The payroll drop in January was revised up to 655,000 from 598,000 and December now shows a 681,000 drop, up from the 577,000 previously estimated."
The initial January numbers were BOGUS! 598K sounds too convenient for the REAL 681K.
And there is no end in sight considering employment is a lagging indicator and the economy is contracting very sharply. This is getting very scary.
I just loved the AP story on this: worse than consensus estimates, but market up because people expected worse.
I wonder if Frazier even wants to enter the ring...
Oh, and WFC's fine, no problems..
And they cut the divvy just for show..
I know he's just reading it, and Faber's one of the actual reporters, but what he's saying is making me sick.
Moin from Germany,
here is another WFC number.....
Perhaps never before have so many banks’ balance sheets been so patently full of hot air
Wells Fargo & Co. said its loans were worth $14.2 billion less than their book value
Wells Fargo’s tangible common equity was $13.5 billion as of Dec. 31. On a fair-value basis, it was negative $133 million. That makes the bank’s $40.9 billion stock-market capitalization look awfully rich.....
Wells Fargo, BofA Loan Values Are a Scary Sight: Jonathan Weil - Bloomberg.com
I know he's just reading it, and Faber's one of the actual reporters, but what he's saying is making me sick.
Faber is one of the few good ones there - but clearly the word has come down - with the mother ship on the brink - "Financials are stabilizing"
Yancey:
Huh? Consensus was that it would be 7.9% and some see this as positive?
WTF?
Homedad43,
This was being set up yesterday. I remember seeing a headline that claimed a worse-than-expected employment report would be good for the market. Now, I really don't know one way or another, but it does seem a bit like propaganda.
I see a lot of "FOR LEASE" signs on malls in my area (so. CA).
Real unemployment - U6 statistic is almost 2X greater .
http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---integration/---stat/documents/presentation/wcms_101414.pdf
“Maybe we’re starting to get to where we’re at the high point of unemployment, and maybe we plateau from here,” said Jason Cooper, who helps manage $3 billion at 1st Source Investment Advisors in South Bend, Indiana. “We’ll probably have a good day today because you didn’t see any huge surprises.”
LOL
U.S. Stocks Gain as Oil Helps Dow Jump 150 Points in 35 Minutes - Bloomberg.com
Market Insider: Wall Street Braces for Ugly Friday - CNBC
Just checked to see how Asia did overnight and came across this.
Granted, it's CNBC but apparently CNBCAsia isn't drinking the water here.
Odd correlations this morning. Futures spike on UE numbers, gold goes up, dollar goes down. Sept. 08 redux
I came across this on Craigslist while I was checking tools and generators for sale. During the 81 recession the WaPo used to run ads that said: Will do anything - go anywhere for cash Until they quit because people complained that they might be hired assasins or some such craziness
I am an electrician, over 15yrs in the trade, work has been very slow. We have been struggling just to eat not counting mortgage. I am an honest hard working American man who is just trying to keep it together. I am looking for some extra work t do on the weekends or during the week after 3pm
ova says:
I am an honest hard working American man who is just trying to keep it together. I am looking for some extra work t do on the weekends or during the week after 3pm
Modern electronic version of "brother can you spare a dime for an American down on his luck."
And in time, he'll travel to wherever he has to in order to get money to send home.
Have cousins from W PA who wound up sharing a cheap room in Florida during the early 80s; they lived on beans and sent the money home.
Yeah, he posted his price list. Hard up is no price list and yes, if it is cash I will work.
Fellas, you must have been asleep or not on the web from 2001-2003 - there were a ton of those posts back then.
asleep or actually working
So I guess you weren't one of the guys posting back in 2001-2003 - I hope you arent this time either. Sorry if you're out of a job now.
In Union lingo, it's called "booming out". Hence boom-towns, and boomers.
Due to JIT improvements, job cuts are no longer a lagging indicator but coincident.
Yeah, apparantly that changed 1/20/09. According to some..
Please don't shoot me....but, Feb was the first month since June 2007 we actually had a net increase in employees, what this means who knows, our area of California was in recession starting the summer of 2007 (our company is about $300million in rev, so we are small, but....), and Jan and Feb were two very profitable months...
Not going to shoot you - actually glad to hear it.
My question is about the level of debt that your company is carrying versus the average. If you have cash, then you're ahead of the game.
debt level is zero (I am the controller, and very conservative financially). Cash level is also very high, we slashed dividends to almost zero about a year ago...
C&C - thats very good to hear - what type of industry?
Feb was the first month since June 2007 we actually had a net increase in employees
What sector?
I have been on these blogs too long to give too many details...but we are in Ag, CRE and retail. (the retail, at least for us, has been flat for a few months and our expense cuts are now very much in line with the new lower revenue numbers)...who knows maybe another leg down, but not yet..
The rule is to make a profit. The level of retail is of secondary importance. There is some survival level of retail and profit of course, but the rule is make a profit.
Yancey
maybe we read different versions of the AP story. the one I saw at the NYT did not have the stuff about expectations you paraphrase.
But it did have an unsourced estimate for expected unemployment going over 9% in 2009, thus exceeding the supposedly unlikely adverse case of 8.9% posited by the bank stress tests.
AP is pulling that figure from somewhere, I would guess from some govt agency or major private sector institution. That 9% is probably optimistic is not the only issue. Strategically it might be better to focus on the undercutting of the stress test expectation by the govt itself:
- NY Times
President Barack Obama is counting on a multipronged assault to lift the country out of recession: a $787 billion stimulus package of increased federal spending and tax cuts; a revamped, multibillion-dollar bailout program for the nation's troubled banks; and a $75 billion effort to stem home foreclosures.
Even in the best-case scenario that the relief efforts work and the recession ends later in 2009, the unemployment rate is expected to keep climbing, hitting 9 percent or higher this year.
President Barack Obama is counting on a multipronged assault to lift the country out of recession:
Christina Romer (Head of Obama's Council of Economic Advisors) just advised that GDP will turn positive in 2nd half '09 with employment improving shortly thereafter. (CNBC clip should be in an hour or so)
tanaw,
never underestimate Hope
Where abbey joseph cohen when we need a pick-me-up 1600 spx year-end from GS ?
Where abbey joseph cohen when we need a pick-me-up 1600 spx year-end from GS ?
How many tens of thousands lost half of the retirement as a direct result of analysts like her -
tanaw,
never underestimate Hope
Lets see. They under-reported the last two months of unemployment by 80K each month. I'd guess with the Fed's history in reporting levels, it's safe to assume an additional 80K this month as well. A real report of 730,000 new unemployed is just not acceptable in the "REAL WORLD" through the eyes of the magicians.
So does this mean we surpass the early 1980s unemployment rate by the end of the summer?
That would be a 'yes'.
That's just when I came out of college. Had a large stack of rejection letters and actually threw somebody out of my room when he pissed about a lousy grade he was getting...
crispy,
I forget, which sector does your company represent?
On the fed contracting side, some are doing well, others not so much, smaller ones struggling under continuing resolution funding (or lack of funding).
However, CA has so much farther to fall. I was there for the 81-82 recession, which in reality seemed to end around 89/90.
--bh
test...I responded twice to you...DAM YOU HALOSCAN!!!
tanaw,
never underestimate Hope
As for the WFC divvie cut... Who couldn't see something like this coming? Back in September they raised $2B @ 9.75% in a bond, that was on the back of a dividend raise of 10% at a cost of about $4.5B.
That's some nice efficient use of cash Lou!
So U6 is at Roosevelt-era New Dealish 30's levels as of now?
Yikes.
40% is coming........
Dear CR
I recall (fuzzy at best) that you made some reference to what you thought the unemployment rate might reach some time back. I think you did it more informally in the comments and you left the anaylsis speak for itself.
Just wondering if you would care to comment on where unemployment might end up in this recession? Or too difficult to tell?
Love your work as always.
Kett82
The NY times has some great graphs on its frontpage right now. Check out number 4 that shows duration of unemployment -it shows how weak the job market's really been for years. It never recovered from the previous recessio
Yancey
found the AP post you paraphrased, a diffenent article than the one I posted about. here's the quote you referenced:
"The [unempolyment] readings were worse than consensus estimates. But many market participants had braced for even grimmer data, shorting stocks earlier in the week, so stock futures pared losses and turned higher ahead of the market's open Friday."
- NY Times
yes, there is an important comic lesson there about "consensus estimates" and what they mean in a system of keeping double books.
maybe this has something to do with people losing confidence in the system?
we're all stigmatized now
The NY times has some great graphs on its frontpage right now. Check out number 4 that shows duration of unemployment -it shows how weak the job market's really been for years. It never recovered from the previous recessio
Undisclosed Losses at Merrill Lead to Trading Probe
Undisclosed Losses at Merrill Lead to Trading Probe - CNBC
The epicenter of the trouble is Merrill’s markets operation, headed by Thomas K. Montag. Mr. Montag, a former Goldman Sachs trader who was brought in by John A. Thain, Merrill’s fallen chief executive, has become a divisive figure inside Bank of America. He is trying to retain his top producers amid the furor over Merrill’s bonuses. He flew to Charlotte this week to strategize with deputies from around the world.
He flew to Charlotte this week to strategize with deputies from around the world.
or translated;
to figure out WTF is going o
crispy & cole says:
Today, 9:26:35 AM
“Please don't shoot me....but, Feb was the first month since June 2007 we actually had a net increase in employees
Man you deserve praise! Why would we be angry, you're like America's one remaining responsible financial officer. We need to clone you and spread your demon children through the corporate system. Good luck managing the opportunities that come your way in the years ahead.
I just bought 500 shares of C. I don't think C is worth anything, but for $1/share I'm willing to bet the gov't keeps them propped up long enough so they'll eventually be worth something. I don't see them going to $0.
Not to diss anybody without a job or who is struggling, but if 9% of the people are unemployed, doesn't that mean 91% are?
8.1% of the fit, healthy and actively seeking employment are totally without employment and are claiming unemployment benefits.
Between that 8.1% and whatever % of people are gainfully employed are:
Those whose benefits have ran out.
Those in part time employment.
Those who are disabled.
Those who are not actively seeking employment.
Those whose unemployment is attributed to 'seasonal' or other measures that are conned out of the figures...
etc, etc, etc...
AFAIK.
Yes. Except that it's 14.8% that are unemployed (U6), so 85.2% are employed.
But if the devil finds work for idle hands, then you might worry about what mischief might be caused by 15% of the US working population.
Smacktle says:
Today, 9:45:16 AM
“Not to diss anybody without a job or who is struggling, but if 9% of the people are unemployed, doesn't that mean 91% are?
No, headline unemployment is a very special number manufactured for use in popping and propping markets for very special friends of Rick. U-6 is 14.8%. Even this doesn't measure many people.
Inflation, Money Supply, GDP, Unemployment and the Dollar - Alternate Data Series
SGS alternate U-6 offers 18%. That's one in five. In a typical social unit of two nuclear families and a bachelor / spinster, one person has had significantly curtained employment prospects.
Also, unemployment hits different people harder. So, as posted earlier. If you are black, the unemployment rate is much higher. Generally, the most marginal people gain the smallest benefits from the gains and take first losses.
aso, keep in mind, especially looking historically, what can happen to a DINK household. Say one of you pays the mortgage, the other pays the rest, one of you loses your job as a witless cube-farmer. Household disruption mounts faster these days because you're already undergoing forced deleveraging and exploiting your household's labor capacity fully.
Here's some data to think about.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
Nemo isn't posting 'cause he's too busy couting his money. Close those longs, Nemo, I don't reckon this one's got any legs.
tanaw,
never underestimate Hope
This is quite wonderful. 650,000 people lose their jobs, and the market goes up approx. 2%. Extrapolate:
crispy,
I forget, which sector does your company represent?
On the fed contracting side, some are doing well, others not so much, smaller ones struggling under continuing resolution funding (or lack of funding).
However, CA has so much farther to fall. I was there for the 81-82 recession, which in reality seemed to end around 89/90.
--bh
"...if 9% of the people are unemployed, doesn't that mean 91% are?"
Some of them have two or even three jobs.
o, many had been unemployed for longer than the survey allows for (think it's 6 months?), so ended up falling out of the labor mkt.
This morning the NY Times website has some good graphs on the employment situation, sequentially showing proportion unemployed, under-employed and discarded from the stats due to despair, etc.
"President Barack Obama is counting on a multipronged assault to lift the country out of recession:"
Lift the country out of recession into what? Borrowing and spending again? Either he is lying or has no concept of systemic collapse.
it would be interesting to know how many of the 8.1% are structural unemployment (excess labor on housing and financials).
"President Barack Obama is counting on a multipronged assault to lift the country out of recession:"
Which country are we going to attack next?
We're attacking our own, for better or worse. You just better hope we win.
tanaw,
never underestimate Hope
And, yet, we're RALLYING!
Yes, but that might be related to the dollar dropping or almost anything else.
This also reinforces fears that the bank stress test is too easy.
Pavel,
2% today, -10% next week. That's how it goes.
--bh
Always being ahead of the curve, I lost my job over a year ago:(
Not counted in the stats though.
I'm already starting to worry about the frog.
why is the market up? Is the news about the FDIC needing $500 billion not important?
(question from an ignorant lurker)
FDIC news is very important. Bankers told Bair to go fu$k herself when she tried raising their premiums to increase funding for expected bank failures. Barney Frank said no problem, we'll get the taxpayers to pay for it.
If the market were a reflection of the state of the economy, the DJIA would never have have hit 14,000.
And, yet, we're RALLYING!
RockyR | Fri, 06 Mar 09 08:54:07 -0600 | #
Yeah, it's nuts. What does that say? Yey, that means more profits because there are less people to pay, so buy, buy, buy, even though the laid-off workers can't.
"Between that 8.1% and whatever % of people are gainfully employed are: (fill in all "marginally attached" categories)"
The official BSR unemployment figures are 2X the Fed official U-3. Here in THIS County officially it is 11.1%. This equates to a REAL BSR figure of 22.2% - and probably closer to the unvarnished, easier to digest, no BS, real figure.
what is twitter
what is twitter
Looks like we are blowing through the 8% estimate of last year.
And yet the market goes up.
Is the news about the FDIC needing $500 billion not important?
I think the conventional wisdom is that this week's angst over the FDIC is politics in action. Sheila has rallied the small banks to her cause by threatening them with steep fee increases. They are frantically calling their friends in congress saying it's the taxpayers' job to bail out C, not theirs. Congress is lining up based on wherever their bacon happens to come from. Etc., etc.
New Thread: More on Job Losses: Comparing Recessions, Diffusion Indices
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/more-on-job-losses-comparing-recessions.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
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Please, for the love of your immortal God of mortals, can we keep the comment and layout changes to a minimum? I'm tired of whipping the code janitor, and may have to escalate to electroshock. If that's not possible, could you possibly give CRbot a 'heads up'?
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what is twitter
market selloff march5 was setup for nonfarm payrolls, but perhaps shortcovering rally this am will be fatigued/exhausted by this afternoon - btw, weekends used to be bailout watch, but now i think we have to expect that they could be legislative/regulatory programme announcement threats, which might cause more shortcovering on the following monday, but not necessarily - i still interpret legislative/regulatory announcements as confirmations that things are indeed as bad as they seem, or worse
what is twitter
THARR SHE BLOWS!
Unemployment rate data coming from US government is as reliable as those five-year tractor production figures of former USSR. Still most newspapers take the data as the gospel of truth. No wonder newspapers are going out of business....
People here should check out the site "Front Porch Republic" Front Porch Republic
It has one interesting article after another that I definitely feel jibes with the overarching Calculated Risk mindset. There's an article today called "No Wealth But Life" that I think people here would like.
Empedocles says:
Today, 10:16:29 AM
It has one interesting article after another that I definitely feel jibes with the overarching Calculated Risk mindset.
What is that? "Give me your wallet, motherf*cker!"?
omg....this halo sux
omg....this halo sux
"America is now officially a business tax unfriendly country. No stability and higher future costs. Add in states in default like CA and watch the jobs leave the US. The real question for workers is what jobs will be left and how far down the ladder will I have to settle for?"
....the jobs have already left for places like Mexico, China, Thailand, Vietnam, etc. It might actually benefit the US in that "protectionist" trade strategies will occur worldwide and the natural progression here in The States would be to start manufacturing again - especially with the 3rd World wage deflation attachment.
Twitter is a broadcast instant messaging system. People post short messages to XML feeds that other people are able to view on the web or mobile devices.
Not to diss anybody without a job or who is struggling, but if 9% of the people are unemployed, doesn't that mean 91% are?
Smacktle | Fri, 06 Mar 09 08:45:16 -0600 | #
Erin Burnett, you've been busted!
The Great Depression bottomed out at 25% unemployment, right? Therefore, the vast majority of Americans had jobs! Woo-hoo!
Not to diss anybody without a job or who is struggling, but if 9% of the people are unemployed, doesn't that mean 91% are?
Smacktle | Fri, 06 Mar 09 08:45:16 -0600 | #
Erin Burnett, you've been busted!
The Great Depression bottomed out at 25% unemployment, right? Therefore, the vast majority of Americans had jobs! Woo-hoo!
Uncertainly leads to volatility. It's the volatility/variability that's telling the story. Look at DJ during GD, it fluctuated like crazy, much like now. So if you consider the variability, the market's behavior is consistent. And in the presence of high variability, the actual DJ value at any particular point in time is meaningless.
But then, what do I know. I'm an old fashioned gal who doesn't trade stocks or do anything fancy like that.
I think the real story here is that 161,000 ADDITIONAL jobs were lost just in the revisions to December/ January. The real headline number was over 800,000.
I thought the Birth/Death model revisions in Jan. are supposed to make the data more accurate. THEN WHY WAS DECEMBER REVISED DOWN WITH OVER 100,000 MORE JOB LOSSES????????
It should be mightily obvious that they are gaming the numbers to spread them out.
Yeah, I don't think any bottom is in sight except Maria'a big one.
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