This is like running a National Security "worse-case scenario", pre-9/11, that consisted of an angry Muslim radical punching out a Jewish person on NY's Upper East Side.
I was talking to a friend in Ireland who said the unions there are threatening massive strikes to protest the government bailing out the banks but not stepping into save companies such as Waterford Crystal. It will be interesting to see how the unions react through out Western Europe. Fortunately for the French, their unions are always striking so it shouldn't effect them as much.
CR-- I like the new comment thingy but it would be even better if there was a Preview button.
"President Barack Obama is poised to offer an olive branch to Cuba in an effort to repair the US's tattered reputation in Latin America.
The White House has moved to ease some travel and trade restrictions as a cautious first step towards better ties with Havana, raising hopes of an eventual lifting of the four-decade-old economic embargo."
Smart thinking...there's oil deals to make, food that we could export, and infrastructure projects that Cuba needs.
Please...we need the business. 404 Page not found
I find myself in an interesting position. The home I have been renting is up for a short sale. The equivalent payment plus insurance is less than the rent I am paying currently -- which means I could put a renter in even if I didn't want to stay. However, I'm really not certain that prices aren't going to do what the US stress tests suggest or worse -- we're still 30% away from 2000 nominal prices here.
GM ceo get 14 million-ish dollar pay package.
"Rick Wagoner received a pay package worth $14.9 million in 2008, although $11.9 million of his compensation was in stock and options whose value plummeted to $682,000 as GM's share price sank."
CR: for the wish list. when you refresh you should return to the place you refreshed from (or the end in flat mode). This eliminates the need to scroll down to where you were and need to remember where you were (timewise).
[T]he worst-case scenario envisaged by the Financial Services Authority and the Treasury is a 1980s recession...
So different. We had this white-hot Chernobyl wage-price spiral of a charcoal flame-up back then that drew all firetruck resources to put out the conflagration. We hosed it down to the point where there was a shrinking and increasingly fragile coal to haul about to create a new campfire. Thinking "Quest for Fire Here" analogy here. Now everybody is sitting around the campfire with bellows and charcoal starter frantically trying to get everything to ignite.
As many as half a million pensioners have been plunged into poverty by savage interest rate cuts, it was claimed last night.
Hammer blow: Many pensioers will fall below the £151 a week poverty line.
WANT TO KNOW MORE?Interest rates: News and predictions
Pension savers denied better income
OTHER STORIESBritons win £14,500 each in tax battle with Spain
Deal gives taxpayers 75% stake in Lloyds
Market round-up: Banks walloped, again
Shops will face a rate rise of 5%
Thousands of jobs to go at Principles stores
FTSE LATEST3530.730.87
LATEST ON...Summary of the financial crisis
And the latest...
- Oil prices
- Interest rates
- FTSE 100
- Pound vs the rest
- Credit crunch
- Libor
The country's 8.5m pensioners with savings have lost massively through the base rate collapsing from 5% in October to 0.5% yesterday.
Many of them rely on the income from their savings accounts for their day-to-day survival.
Last night, the country's biggest pensioner group warned that yesterday's cut would push a further 50,000 older people below the poverty line - bringing the total in the past six months to an estimated 500,000
Does anyone this 401k, 403b, etc. plans are in danger of being seized and converted to government bonds? Or does the Fed just monetize the 100 trillion or so needed to fill in the holes?
"Any comments just for the sake of sparking ideas?"
sms,
what locale? Has your city/neighborhood been in downturn mode for a while...or is it just starting? Is this a city you want to be tied to long term...even if property taxes skyrocket? Is your neighborhood stable, or are foreclosures still piling up?
Are employment propects good enough to keep you in the location, even if you rent out the house? After all, being a long-distance landlord is said to be a disaster.
Just questions I would ask myself.
City shareholders have threatened a revolt against the board of Lloyds Banking Group (LBG) over yesterday's announcement of a £260bn bailout by the government.
Chairman Sir Victor Blank and chief executive Eric Daniels, who brokered last year's controversial merger of Lloyds TSB with the ailing HBOS, are now fighting for their survival after being forced to give the government a majority stake in the bank, a move both had resisted. ..
Institutional shareholders will meet the pair this week, demanding answers over the acquisition of HBOS, which generated more than 80% of the bad loans..."
"Alistair Darling has already spent almost a fifth of Britain's GDP on bailing out its shattered banking system – more than any other major economy, according to a grave assessment of the world financial crisis published today by the International Monetary Fund.
With G20 finance ministers due to gather in Sussex next Friday for a two-day meeting before the London summit in April, the IMF has totted up the costs of financial bailouts so far. It calculates that the UK has spent as much as 19.8% of its GDP, topping the table of G20 countries.
The US, where the investment bank Bear Stearns and the insurer AIG have both been rescued with public finds, has spent just 6.8% of its GDP. Only Norway has come close to the UK, spending 13.8%" IMF: Fifth of Britain's GDP spent so far on bailouts |
Business |
guardian.co.uk
I'm very interested in his theories. He has graphs of debt vs GDP for Australia that show the 1980's recession as not much more than a blip on a continuous climb from about 1965 onwards.
If he is right in his theories we are in for something, at best, more akin to what Japan has been experiencing since the 1990's.
You said "The U.K. economy contracted 0.7% in Q3 and 1.5% in Q4, so a decline of 3.3% in 2009 (assuming no recovery later in the year) would put the peak to trough in the U.K. around 5.5%."
But!!!
You are making the very false assumption that the Peak to Trought will be known at the end of 2009.
I'm teling you that this will not be the case.
The full extent of the trought will be more like Fall 2010, unless the goverment keeps helping. If they keep trying to slow this thing down, we will hit the trought in the Fall of 2011.
The US downturn is going to be worse than that. 4% or more in 2009 and probably 1.5% after in 2010. The GDP won't stop dropping until fall of 2010. People have constantly UNDERestimated this mess. Even Roubini.
I'm shrinking!
--
No, you are depressing.
My guess is the U.K. underperforms the U.S. in this recession.
By under perform do you mean a larger decline in peak to trough GDP?
--
The same money crooks, one with more experience but older that taught the younger crook.
depends on our definition of underperforming in a recession.
--
"depends on our definition of underperforming in a recession."
No definition, but an example -- CR has been underperforming with his economic and housing forecasts.
Who is this Lloyd fellow? And why is the British government so concerned about his personal finances?
This is like running a National Security "worse-case scenario", pre-9/11, that consisted of an angry Muslim radical punching out a Jewish person on NY's Upper East Side.
Stress tests should be stressful.
--
"Stress tests should be stressful."
Bankers are sent to a massage parlor followed by a sauna to releave the stress. Then they are declared stress-free.
I think 700 applications for 1 janitorial job is a pretty good economic indicator:
The Associated Press
I was talking to a friend in Ireland who said the unions there are threatening massive strikes to protest the government bailing out the banks but not stepping into save companies such as Waterford Crystal. It will be interesting to see how the unions react through out Western Europe. Fortunately for the French, their unions are always striking so it shouldn't effect them as much.
CR-- I like the new comment thingy but it would be even better if there was a Preview button.
The happy faces are cool! To bad they aren't Tanta mortgage pigs.
Optimistic bunch of fools aren't they.
"Optimistic bunch of fools aren't they."
Dopes.
BTW, nesting problem...
"I'm shrinking!"
No, you are depressing.
"My guess is the U.K. underperforms the U.S. in this recession."
The same money crooks, one with more experience but older that taught the younger crook.
It is the end of the road for them. They just don't know that.
The key question is what if its worse?
CR... big improvement in the JS comments layout. Only thing missing is a notification that new comments have been posted. Is the feature available?
Ya ain't seen nothing yet - BTW - that's 2008 data!
Frack! :'(
Oh wow, smileys and everything, we really are moving up in the World. I feel so "elite"...
No 'devil' symbol.. I officially register my protest!
"These two scenarios are somewhat close for 2009."
And fundamentally optimistic in the worst possible way.
So what Anglo-American economic and finance geniuses and their politico lackeys are smoking the same dope?
We will be at 10% unemployment by June. Easily. Some states already are. This is the "Great Recession."
the u.s. GDP will decline in the triple digits
the u.s. unemployment rate will rise exponentially
11.1% in our County (Nye) - #1 in Nevada. 3rd largest county in the US.
Where is my symbol.. dammit, no devil symbol!
dopes dopes dopes
gosh i feel better everytime i say that
No anger symbol too! Come on..
dopes dopes dopes
--
"dopes dopes dopes"
And crooks crooks crook.
Testing laughing guy =))
you are so right
no devil
=}}
O:-) >:o :'( =-O :-E DONT_KNOW
OT, but from a British newspaper...
"President Barack Obama is poised to offer an olive branch to Cuba in an effort to repair the US's tattered reputation in Latin America.
The White House has moved to ease some travel and trade restrictions as a cautious first step towards better ties with Havana, raising hopes of an eventual lifting of the four-decade-old economic embargo."
Smart thinking...there's oil deals to make, food that we could export, and infrastructure projects that Cuba needs.
Please...we need the business.
404 Page not found
didn't know performance was the key in a recessio
So when will the US cross a "real-time" U6 of 20%?
Identification, cloning, and functional analysis of the human U6 snRNA-specific terminal uridylyl transferase
http://rnajournal.cshlp.org/content/12/8/1494/F6.expansio
may
"Reykjavik on Thames"...capital flight from the UK as revealed in the link above :-E
cuba
great cigars
bad in hurricane seaso
Not Irving Fisher!, the notification is missing (I'm working on getting that), and the main thread shows 0 comments (that should be fixed quickly).
We will get there!
Nice. This will work just fine I think.
I'm surprised the UK numbers aren't grimmer to be honest. So much of the economy is dependent on the financial sector. Time will tell.
Nice work, CR - The "patience of Job"
No talking on two or three threads at a time. The pop-up window takes over the topic you've clicked on, but MUCH better than earlier.
I find myself in an interesting position. The home I have been renting is up for a short sale. The equivalent payment plus insurance is less than the rent I am paying currently -- which means I could put a renter in even if I didn't want to stay. However, I'm really not certain that prices aren't going to do what the US stress tests suggest or worse -- we're still 30% away from 2000 nominal prices here.
Any comments just for the sake of sparking ideas?
--
"Americans are stressing with anxiety and depression."
Any stress test for American dopes to see if they can survive the economic crisis?
Dauntless Dopes devise dominant dogmatic dramatics
(say that fast 3 times)
GM ceo get 14 million-ish dollar pay package.
"Rick Wagoner received a pay package worth $14.9 million in 2008, although $11.9 million of his compensation was in stock and options whose value plummeted to $682,000 as GM's share price sank."
Postal Service draws criticism for $1.2 million home buy
Postal Service to pay less for homes to relocate workers - CNN.com
Lloyd's has been nationalized:
Government takes over Lloyds |
Business |
guardian.co.uk
Is this a stress test of a gov't agency?
Crikey! Crooks ! Crap =-O
Nice emoticon collection, but I WANT a devil too O:-)
:-[
DONT_KNOW O:-) >:o
IMPROVEMENT!!! Speaking about the commenting system, of course.
CR: for the wish list. when you refresh you should return to the place you refreshed from (or the end in flat mode). This eliminates the need to scroll down to where you were and need to remember where you were (timewise).
WHOA LLOYDS TAKEN OVER? THIS IS HUGE
If the Financial Services Authority are using the same stress test scenarios as JPM did 6 months back, I say that UK is in for a spot of bother. Calculated Risk: JPMorgan House Price Projections
LOL, she invested $100,000 in one stock, and today that $100,000 is worth $700.
http://js-kit.com/extra/tiny_mce/plugins/emotions/img/smiley-money-mouth.gif Good god. $100K to less than $1K. THat's pain.
>:o :-$ This time with faces.
Wow. But naptime.
C
Whoops. Make that a trillion dollar run not a trillion pound run. That should help the stress a bit....
[T]he worst-case scenario envisaged by the Financial Services Authority and the Treasury is a 1980s recession...
So different. We had this white-hot Chernobyl wage-price spiral of a charcoal flame-up back then that drew all firetruck resources to put out the conflagration. We hosed it down to the point where there was a shrinking and increasingly fragile coal to haul about to create a new campfire. Thinking "Quest for Fire Here" analogy here. Now everybody is sitting around the campfire with bellows and charcoal starter frantically trying to get everything to ignite.
As many as half a million pensioners have been plunged into poverty by savage interest rate cuts, it was claimed last night.
Hammer blow: Many pensioers will fall below the £151 a week poverty line.
WANT TO KNOW MORE?Interest rates: News and predictions
Pension savers denied better income
OTHER STORIESBritons win £14,500 each in tax battle with Spain
Deal gives taxpayers 75% stake in Lloyds
Market round-up: Banks walloped, again
Shops will face a rate rise of 5%
Thousands of jobs to go at Principles stores
FTSE LATEST3530.730.87
LATEST ON...Summary of the financial crisis
And the latest...
- Oil prices
- Interest rates
- FTSE 100
- Pound vs the rest
- Credit crunch
- Libor
The country's 8.5m pensioners with savings have lost massively through the base rate collapsing from 5% in October to 0.5% yesterday.
Many of them rely on the income from their savings accounts for their day-to-day survival.
Last night, the country's biggest pensioner group warned that yesterday's cut would push a further 50,000 older people below the poverty line - bringing the total in the past six months to an estimated 500,000
Half a million pensioners pay price of savings rate cuts | This is Money
The central bank hads gotta burn the frigging village down to save it. No place for old men.
Does anyone this 401k, 403b, etc. plans are in danger of being seized and converted to government bonds? Or does the Fed just monetize the 100 trillion or so needed to fill in the holes?
oops, this=think
"Bernanke: Fed will use all tools at its disposal"
"Tool" is "loot" spelled backward.
Yes, we ah, see those tools being used in London there
Excellent point. We have been looted by tools.
I hear America snoring:
YouTube - America Snoring
C
"Any comments just for the sake of sparking ideas?"
sms,
what locale? Has your city/neighborhood been in downturn mode for a while...or is it just starting? Is this a city you want to be tied to long term...even if property taxes skyrocket? Is your neighborhood stable, or are foreclosures still piling up?
Are employment propects good enough to keep you in the location, even if you rent out the house? After all, being a long-distance landlord is said to be a disaster.
Just questions I would ask myself.
This is not good news
The Stranger, Seattle's Only Newspaper
Here is my stress test scenario based on Reinhart & Rogoff
CertainRuin - a stock picker's record: What a real stress test would look like
OT: I remember someone calling the tuition bubble on this blog. Well, the NYT agrees:
In Shifting Era Of Admissions, Colleges Sweat - NY Times
From the Guardian...
City shareholders have threatened a revolt against the board of Lloyds Banking Group (LBG) over yesterday's announcement of a £260bn bailout by the government.
Chairman Sir Victor Blank and chief executive Eric Daniels, who brokered last year's controversial merger of Lloyds TSB with the ailing HBOS, are now fighting for their survival after being forced to give the government a majority stake in the bank, a move both had resisted. ..
Institutional shareholders will meet the pair this week, demanding answers over the acquisition of HBOS, which generated more than 80% of the bad loans..."
IMF: A Fifth of UK's GDP Spent on Baiouts...
"Alistair Darling has already spent almost a fifth of Britain's GDP on bailing out its shattered banking system – more than any other major economy, according to a grave assessment of the world financial crisis published today by the International Monetary Fund.
With G20 finance ministers due to gather in Sussex next Friday for a two-day meeting before the London summit in April, the IMF has totted up the costs of financial bailouts so far. It calculates that the UK has spent as much as 19.8% of its GDP, topping the table of G20 countries.
The US, where the investment bank Bear Stearns and the insurer AIG have both been rescued with public finds, has spent just 6.8% of its GDP. Only Norway has come close to the UK, spending 13.8%"
IMF: Fifth of Britain's GDP spent so far on bailouts |
Business |
guardian.co.uk
Dear CR, Have you heard of Steve Keen? An Australian economist with the Blog...
Steve Keen's Debtwatch
I'm very interested in his theories. He has graphs of debt vs GDP for Australia that show the 1980's recession as not much more than a blip on a continuous climb from about 1965 onwards.
If he is right in his theories we are in for something, at best, more akin to what Japan has been experiencing since the 1990's.
Irving Fisher was here
∄⚖
Holy minimal chrome, Batman!
A Simple Page
I would like Picture Commenting and video embed.
JS-Kit Community Wiki / Feature-List
Great Update CR...the new comments section is working fine for me on my iphone! Thanks!
You said "The U.K. economy contracted 0.7% in Q3 and 1.5% in Q4, so a decline of 3.3% in 2009 (assuming no recovery later in the year) would put the peak to trough in the U.K. around 5.5%."
But!!!
You are making the very false assumption that the Peak to Trought will be known at the end of 2009.
I'm teling you that this will not be the case.
The full extent of the trought will be more like Fall 2010, unless the goverment keeps helping. If they keep trying to slow this thing down, we will hit the trought in the Fall of 2011.
Like your new format. It works well.
>>"Bernanke: Fed will use all tools at its disposal"
"Tool" is "loot" spelled backward.
And 'tools' is 'stool' more appropriately rearranged.
The US downturn is going to be worse than that. 4% or more in 2009 and probably 1.5% after in 2010. The GDP won't stop dropping until fall of 2010. People have constantly UNDERestimated this mess. Even Roubini.