Not necessarily. The FDIC could also sell off the assets completely and pay off all obligations, but they've lacked the will to do that. They usually add a couple billion in capital and find another buyer.
maybe it because they don't the money to pull the trigger? the size of some of these banks is in the trillions not billions. and the FDIC is already having to get more money with the banks as the banks that have already failed have depleted it. and that size problem also happens to lengthen the turn around. with a much smaller bank they can come in on a friday and be open on monday. its very doubtful they could accomplish that with a TBTF bank. it might be a week before it reopens. and just who will buy their assets? there is no source of money available to do that.
Something excellent ucodgen posted on JTR's blog:
Congress wonders why the secondary market has dried up??? Most mortgages were handled on the secondary market.
Investors to Home-purchaser: I will loan you money to purchase the property using the property as security for the loan. If you can’t pay, I’ll take the property since, after all, it was I that really paid for it. Since I will have taken back the property, you will owe nothing else at that point. When you have paid off the loan, the house will be yours free and clear. Since house prices always go up, the principal is guaranteed.
Home-purchaser to Investors: Sounds good, This way I can avoid being priced out of the market. Since house prices always go up, I can sell it to cover the principal if paying the mortgage might be too difficult. I may even exit with a profit
looks like two guilty parties here
From a month to a few years later..
home-purchaser: I can’t pay the current mortgage and I can’t sell the property to get clear– for whatever reason
Investors: Ok, per our agreement, I am going to foreclose on the property and you will be clear. I may take a loss, but at least this albatross will be off from about my neck.
ObamaAdmin to Investors: Oh no, you can’t do that. Who cares about contract law. We can’t deny people their dreams, their wants, no matter how unrealistic it is for them to be buying a million dollar house on a bus driver’s salary.
Investor1 to ObamaAdmin: It was my money that was loaned to buy the property.
ObamaAdmin to Investor1: Tough, you are rich. You should stop exploiting the poor people.
Investor1 to ObamaAdmin: If I am forced to take an additional loss and therefore to take a risk greater than specified on the original lending agreement, why should I ever loan money out for people to buy houses?
ObamaAdmin to Investor1: Tough, you are rich and have the money.. besides, the government will take care of everybody so everybody has what they wish.. except the rich.. and if there are any problems, well figure it out later..
Investor2 to ObamaAdmin: What about us? We are not rich, but are running a pension fund for retirement and health benefits. What happens if we can’t pay out what has been promised?
ObamaAdmin to Investor2: If they have a pension fund, they must be rich. If there are any problems here, we’ll figure it out later..
sdbri: We need to make people more aware of these absurdities. Although Obama doesn’t believe to that extent, this is an excellent description of the route some of his supporters want him to take. Moderates need to remind the government of these obvious realities.
sdbri says:Today, 1:43:26 PM “Something excellent ucodgen posted on JTR's blog:
Congress wonders why the secondary market has dried up???
sdbri:
I don't necessarily disagree with the dialogue you wrote. However, the problem is FAR FAR greater than investor vs Obama. the issue began back when GWB was president.
the larger issue was this
-bank lends to homeborrower
-bank sells to investment bank
-investment bank creates security
-security is rated AAA by ratings agecencies (so equal to treasuries in theory)
-investors buy the securities.
fast forward:
-all of these AAA securities aren't worth the paper they're written on
-investors taking huge losses
-there is NO transparency in any of these securities. So you can't tell what was really junk but rated AAA, and what was AAA and rated AAA. Thus, can't tell between AAA and junk.
thus, investors refuse to buy these securities because they can't evaluate the securities.
The investors are angry at a lot more people besides Obama.
Only in a fairy tale world would the investors buy securities from Goldman sucks or the other lying cheating banks any time soon.
so although I agree that the contract law is a major issue with current securitization, there are FAR FAR FAR more important reasons why securitization is dead.
There's a BIG flaw in your scenario. It's this line:
"I may take a loss, but at least this albatross will be off from about my neck."
How exactly does an investor holding a foreclosed asset that is worth less than the original loan removing an albatross from the investor's neck?
Instead of removing an albatross, the investor has just assumed a toxic, non-performing asset that cannot be sold without a huge loss and provides zero cash flow.
That's why the cram-downs may be necessary. Investors in mortgage-backed securities will have to choose between getting 50% of their return or 0% of their return. Are they suicidal enough to worry about "breach of contract" when the existing contract is already bankrupting them?
I wouldn't spend too much time trying to figure out what Shelby meant, the guy's insane. It wasn't enough for him to have the blood of Lehman on his hands, now he wants a commercial bank to go the same way.
Dan, whatever else Shelby has done wrong, he was the leading force behind voting down the original TARP. First person to say no, and convinced practically everyone else who voted no. That makes him less of an idiot than everyone else in Congress at the time, McCain and Obama included. Oh, and I voted for Obama only because he was less crazy than stay the course McCain.
Have you been around many vc funded tech startups? Hmmm. Yuppie welfare 90 percent of the time. I made a fortune representing them. Anymore, its a shrinking market and I can no longer stomach the "I'm cool, I work at a startup" bs. Delusional. Low quality thought. No attention to market forces. Lotsa better mousetraps. All about get the next round at any cost.
Why is it that EVERYONE wants the same thing, and yet we can't get it done????
The big banks need the FDIC treatment. They need pre-privatization. They need re-privatization (my preferred term). They need to be decapitated (remove the failed management which has lost the trust of the markets). The investors need to take the appropriate haircuts with previous capital structure put into runoff. The operating businesses, most of which can survive, need to be spun off and/or recapitalized.
This is not rocket science. Why can't we just get it done?
It's quite likely that the market will not recover until this sector is restored to health.
because the FDIC doesn't have the money to do this? they are already having to get more cash. because of the banks that have already failed. and together those banks aren't as big.
you might be right about the market not recovering. if thats true then the market is down for a long time. no matter what happens. the trust in the finance companies is gone
Privately, something close to desperation is starting to develop inside government. After watching the slide in bank shares on Friday, one cabinet minister did not altogether joke when he said: "The banks are fucked, we're fucked, the country's fucked."
"The big banks need the FDIC treatment. They need pre-privatization."
You understand that due to the bankruptcy law changes of 2005, before any bank is "treated" by the FDIC, CDS are activated and taken from the bank assets BEFORE any other creditors are dealt with. In other words, all the assets go to satisfy the CDS (ie. more money goes to GS, and others)
"I wouldn't spend too much time trying to figure out what Shelby meant, the guy's insane. It wasn't enough for him to have the blood of Lehman on his hands, now he wants a commercial bank to go the same way."
You wouldn't happen to write for the New York Times would you?
Seems to me that bankruptcy, not nationalization is the solution. The shareholders are already close to wiped out and dividends largely abandoned. Bad assets will bleed out over time, but you can't really do anything to change that fact. The remaining problem is too much debt, which can only be cleared by bankruptcy, or by the FDIC's bankruptcy like powers. In my opinion the only big one so far that was a complete f-up was WaMu--they nuked the shareholders and the bondholders and left a functioning operation. Do the same thing to all the big guys, I'm sure there will be a cascading effect since they're all incestuous with each others preferred and bonds, but in the end we will have a functioning banking system, instead of a great gaping wound we could pour an almost infinite amount of money into without closing.
What do you think "nationalization" means? It means temporary seizure of company, fire the management, wipe out shareholders, sell off toxic assets to vultures for pennies, re-privatize the "good bank" in pieces.
That's what EVERYBODY who speaks of nationalization means. And it's basically the same thing as FDIC but on a far larger scale.
That's one unusual type of temporary nationalization. Nationalization in its normal form happens all over the world and is permanent, involves no firing or changes to business. The government simply owns it.
Fold it up. Let's learn the full costs of hydraulic despotism.
When I set out to lead humanity along my Golden Path I promised a lesson their bones would remember. I know a profound pattern humans deny with words even while their actions affirm it. They say they seek security and quiet, conditions they call peace. Even as they speak, they create seeds of turmoil and violence.
-Leto II, The God Emperor
Senator Shelby is not going to win any awards for being articulate or being the fastest talker or being the "details guy", but the he is invariably correct on fiscal and economics questions. He has voted against every bailout.
I believe if we stopped the bailouts, the market would being to restructure itself so that we can have confidence once again. The longer the government massively intervenes, the longer the market will remain uncertain of what actions to take. It is just lengthening the misery. Moreover, in may cases, a bailout is just moving risk from the private sector onto the government, which needlessly endangers the dollar.
you might be right. it would have restructure it self ok. maybe it would be 2500 instead 6000+? after all its a heard mentality. as soon as the herd figured out that there was no safety in stock, they would all bail out. not sure that the misery would ever end though.
but you are right about the out sourcing of the risk.
but then again that becomes a social problem when you look at the scope of restructuring that would occur if we let it happen.
You understand that due to the bankruptcy law changes of 2005, before any bank is "treated" by the FDIC, CDS are activated and taken from the bank assets BEFORE any other creditors are dealt with. In other words, all the assets go to satisfy the CDS (ie. more money goes to GS, and others)
-o-oo-o
The proposed dismantling of AIG by selling off the viable & valuable businesses seems to have happened after certain CDS were settled. Now that plan is deemed not working.
I read this in another comment and I feel that it is not only good but well worth repeating. I man walks into a bank and pulls a gun on the teller. This is a hold up, give me your money. But sir con't you realize this is a bank, we have no money.
"Developing nations will have a $270 billion-$700 billion shortfall in paying for imports and servicing their debts in 2009 amid the global economic slowdown, Bloomberg reported March 8, citing a World Bank report. In a statement, World Bank President Robert Zoellick warned of a “growing crisis” in developing countries and said governments and multilateral lenders need to take action “to avoid social and political unrest.” The report says the global economy likely will contract for the first time since World War II, and growth will be at least 5 percentage points below potential. World trade is expected to make its most rapid decline in 80 years, with the decline steepest in East Asia. Worldwide industrial production is forecast to drop as much as 15 percent compared to 2008."
Imagine you are Bank Of America and have insured massive amount of toxic waste that you carry at high prices on your books because you got it insured by AIG.
Naked exposure to bonds, tell that to the school districts or the cities and townships that bought protection on their bonds by paying premium for cds protection. As you can see writing cds without any reserve is a nasty and should be criminal.
voiding CDS's would cause a lot of overleveraged banks and insurance companies, especially in europe, to run afoul of their regulatory capital requirements. IMCO the capital requirements are riddled with disastrous mistakes anyway, and need to be completely re-done from scratch.
So, void CDS, and over leveraged banks face a sudden need for additional capital which logic says they need anyway as they are under capitalized - no? They've been getting away with inadequate capital because it's legal but not healthy. So, it sounds like void CDS and overnight it becomes clear just which banks are unhealthy, no? Isn't that exactly what should be getting purged out of the system?
Senator Shelby is right. I am sure he will be agreeable, to do the best thing. That is, take the bank, clean the bank and put the bank back in the market. Simple, may be painful, but it is right thing to do. =-O
They've got to do something decisive, and do it now, or the economy is going to burn down. The problem with this idea is that you think that they have the same view of the economy that you do. Just because it "burns down", some folks are still going to come out fine. They happen to be the ones depending on stretching any resolution out. If the economy you and I know survives somehow, well, how lucky for us. If not, they still doubt that they will be the one's without a chair! Everyone's a winner!
[SHELBY: Close -- close them down, get them out of business. If they're dead, they ought to be buried. We bury the small banks; we've got to bury some big ones and send a strong message to the market. And I believe that people will start investing in banks. People aren't...]
While he is half right (banks should be buried) no one will start investing in the large scale manner of the past few decades. It's just not feasible in this environment. This is not a bad thing. Markets will continue to crumble because of the earnings scenario but at least we'll be able to focus investment in the correct areas, not in black holes. Shelby must admit that the goal of investment at the garage, university and corporate level is to produce strategic options, not short term cash flow to cover debt overhang. Otherwise we'll be locked in a revolving door of "stimulus".
You have to understand that, on the buyer's side, CDS's were largely a scheme to have their cake and eat the taxpayer's cake too. Firms would load up on risk, then buy CDS's that would "magically" erase the risk (actually, transfer risk to the US taxpayer), thus allowing them to get leveraged to the hilt. Thus our world's biggest financial companies are built on a foundation of lies.
We can't get it done--closing/preprivatizing big banks because the right and powerful management/owners must be faced down.
These are the most alpha of alpha males. Unfortuately being an alpha male does not qualify you to run a business, only shove your way to the top.
Nevertheless beta males are terrified to challenge alphas for the very good reason that they could be seriously hurt or killed.
The guy I've referenced before, who was on NPR said that the hardest thing the Swedish model had to do was face down the 2 families and family heads involved in the 2 yep 2 banks actually involved in the Swedish model, and a great deal of time and planning was spent on this issue. The Swedish bank owners/managers had taken care to keep good connections with politicians and felt they should just get money to keep their institutions going. The humble bureaucrats were carefully ringfenced and protected before they attempted to do this.
Alpha males are easily handled. They believe thier own bullshit until new younger alpha males kills them. The silver backs are about to be sent to the Gorilla graveyard one way or another.
Well why don't we invite these so called alpha male into the MMA cage and see how tough they really are. Please don't call them alpha males because physically they are all weak men.
The thing that most people forget is that big banks are not founded only by deposits. Actually only half of their funding come from deposits. It's very different from small banks which are mostly funded by deposits.
In other words FDIC would not lose any money by closing Citi or Bank Of America. That's probably part of why they will do anything to avoid it, since there would be no excuse to dump trash on taxpayers.
With all due respect, you need to concentrate on the political and economic consequences of not voiding them.
There is no "immaculate conception" here. They've got to do something decisive, and do it now, or the economy is going to burn down.]
Yes, we need to split the crisis into 3 component and be borderline pedantic in their rigidness. We have financial collapse, economic turmoil and political incompetence.
1) Financial collapse has occurred, everyone knows the situation is untenable. So basing the solution off of contracts which will never be fulfilled is a waste of time. Which leads us onto...
2) Economically, we can't afford to stick to the framework set out in the past. It's not profitable to have a connected world suffer food or energy dislocations and the resultant social upheaval because it spills over into stable areas, disrupting economies. No matter how low or high tech. Which leads us to...
3) Political incompetence. Those in power haven't been able to separate the economy from finances and see that they are not one and the same. Banks go boom and bust and the world keeps revolving. Economies go boom and bust and the world suffers.
In military terms, Obama and his crew will soon be locked in a "decisive engagement" with the banks. In a decisive engagement there is only black or white, victor or vanquished, survivor or... dead.
In military terms, sometimes sacrifices have to be made for the larger good. In this case, Obama and his crew may not make it, but it will have been for a cause they believed in.
Well the support to the banks is really imaginary, so why not withhold the support, and gradually get them to raise real capital. I really don't understand the problem. Does somebody really believe that these trillions and trillions of alphabet soup bets are really going to be paid off? Oh, ok, maybe the first couple of defaults, but after that?
Does even one person posting here from Dawg to Jas and anybody of any stripe inbetween believe that significant payment will happen?
I feel like we are in a Phony War environment. We know something big is gonna happen, but not what or when. In the meantime, we are eating at restaurants (Long Horn Steak House reasonably full), buying stuff at Home Depot (ditto) and otherwise just conducting our lives, while behind the scenes, intense war preparation is happening.
Does somebody really believe that these trillions and trillions of alphabet soup bets are really going to be paid off?
"Of course they're safe. There's absolutely no doubt about that. They are as strong, solid and as safe as any other building method in this country provided of course people believe in them."
Smart always wins if it is smart enough. A lot of people confuse what smart really means. It doesn't come with the imprimatur of an elite education or a high paying job.
We'll find out in a couple of years whether the Liquidationists had a better solution. All of the liabilities we keep taking on look mighty scary to me.
After the Romans fell, there was still a hierarchy.
But the people on top were in very poor shape indeed.
No more clean water even. No more medicine. the Romans could set a broken arm, could the Vikings?
No more stone buildings for a while. I think there would be some alphas who would rather be on top in a broken down world than live in a pleasant world, only not quite on top. We need to do some evolving here.
Which Roman empire? Byzantine empire lasted far longer than western Roman empire & not troubled by Vikings, threats to Byz came from elsewhere & the Byzantine Empire shrunk but lasted until, I think it was 1452 or 53, before the Ottomans finally took Constantinople. Byz empire was a sophisticated culture, gov't & society.
There were interesting complex cultures in the Americas too, during the time you're speaking of.
They, meaning Paulson, Bernanke & Company, should have been thinking about this crisis in military terms. You do not allow your own forces to become intermingled with the enemy. If that occurs, a "decisive engagement" takes place.
You use fire and maneuver, to envelope your enemy, then you destroy him with artillery and air power. You have the survivors bury their own when it's over.
That's how it's done.
Now, we're intermingled. The financial problem has spilled over into the real economy, so there will be a decisive engagement.
It's time for Obama to find it, otherwise we're all going to die, metaphorically speaking.
“The best thing that could probably happen to General Motors, in my view, is they go into Chapter 11,” Senator John McCain said on the “Fox News Sunday” program today.
The automaker could reorganize and renegotiate its labor contracts to come out “stronger, better, leaner,” McCain, from Arizona, said.
"I expect that your decisive engagement is going to be the camp followers taking up knives in the middle of the night."
The decisive engagement will result in either a long period of depressed economic activity (recession), or the total destruction of the US economy (depression).
Either way, Mr. President, the choice is yours and you will be burdoned with the blame.
sorry if this is a repost... halo/jskit ate my other one evidently.
I'm not so sure that we need to nullify all CDS contracts. Doing so is a de-facto cascading cross default situation, and I'm not sure that's the wisest idea.
instead, we could force all CDS contracts into a central clearing house. Of course they would need to be altered slightly so that they would be more "conforming" but it could be done IN THEORY.
then we could let a big bank fail. the clearing house would help with the cascading cross default situation... or at least it would help us have transparency with who is solvent and who is insolvent more quickly.
using this info, we could quickly close up the insolvent and roll their assets into the solvent. There may be 1 or 2 big banks out there that could survive... and maybe a few regionals and also some locals...
going forward we clearly need all OTC derivatives to trade in a transparent market or be made illegal. and we also need a "too big to be allowed to exist" policy as well, to prevent another Citimonster.
Wrong YTL. CDS's need to go the way of the dodo bird. Burn the big gamblers bad enough and they'll stay away from fire (specific deterrence) and others will, too if it's public enough (general deterrence). Risk theory 101.
For immediate release
The Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday announced its approval of the application by ICE US Trust LLC, New York, New York (ICE Trust), to become a member of the Federal Reserve System. ICE Trust intends to provide central counterparty services for certain credit default swap contracts.
ICE Trust is one of several industry proposals that could satisfy the goals of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets regarding the formation of central counterparties for credit default swaps. In November 2008, the President's Working Group called for the successful implementation of central counterparty services with a view toward reducing systemic risk associated with counterparty credit exposures, facilitating greater market transparency, and encouraging a more competitive trading environment.
Attached is the Board's Order relating to this action.
The good news that FHA is self correcting. The more defaults, the more careful FHA will have to be in giving out loans in the future. Or, they could charge their customers more.
The ironic news will be if the government begins bailing itself out. Good luck with that!
i figure if GM does bankruptcy, they might as well do the chapter 7. I know i will be in the market for a car later this year, and if the do go into bankruptcy they will be off my list for a car. NO IF AND OR BUTS.
course i don't see where they will get their DIP funds without the government doing it, and that defeats the purpose of doing it at all. since the government would still end up giving them funds. and the going chapter 7 will cause the current economic debacle to be much worse.
but FHA (and FREDDIE and FANNIE before it) doesn't actually make the loans. they just insure them. but hopefully soon FHA will kick the bad mortgage companies out of their program and force some of them to pay it back for their fraud.
1) speculator -- someone without an interest in the underlying
2) hedger -- someone with an interest in the underlying
I propose that each of these get the premiums they paid back.
A speculator only gets the premiums returned. A hedger gets the
premiums back, plus any decrease in the value of the underlying.
This would be the settlement of existing CDSs.
Going forward, they must only be traded on an exchange and,
like the insurance they are, only available to hedgers.
The write of any CDS should also have to put up enough
money to demonstrate that they could handle the loss.
returning the premiums could probably be worked, but the decrease in the value of the underlying assets is massive. Loading them onto the gov just shifts the problem around, and treasuries are already on the precipice.
[I think there would be some alphas who would rather be on top in a broken down world than live in a pleasant world, only not quite on top.]
Here's a question I like to ask new groups of people while debating geopolitics and world trade.
Would you rather make $130K knowing your neighbours make $200K or would you rather make $90K knowing they only make $80K?
There is no right answer, but the justification of their position often gives out more information than they believe. Sometimes I like to ask followup questions if they haven't become hostile:
Is it better to have every guilty person in jail if that means that a few innocent people are locked up or would you rather a few guilty people are free so no innocent person is locked up?
And.
Should a basic level of welfare and health care exist so less affluent but motivated people don't have to make short-term decisions to make ends meet instead of retraining or spending extra time on a job search?
There is no right answer for any of these questions. They are meant to spur debate and an out loud thought process. It's amazing how answers can betray the image people wish to portray of themselves.
1) Clearly the former.
2) calculate the sum of damage done to innocent people due to false incarceration + damage done to innocent people by guilty people not in jail. Set the system to minimize the total.
3) question is to vague/too many unspecified parameters.
When Lehmann went down it froze up the credit system, caused massive market losses, AIG to get bailed out and this was because of CDS effects. If CDS are eliminated by executive order what would be the domino effect? Would not bonds be trashed and other investments downgraded that have the CDS "insurance"?
Seems like a fuse lit to a nuclear weapon to me. Ending with a burnt landscape and lots of radioactive material.
But then I am just a lower than low commenter to a blog.
Exchange or no, the thing that throws jet fuel on the CDS fire is probably the lack of collateral posting requirements. Which is an irresponsible bit of behavior we've now rewarded enormously by having the taxpayer fill in the gap. If taxpayers could simply repudiate any responsibility for these bad bets, and players required much more collateral, the majority of the CDS market would wither away, taking all the fraud with it. Of course, the
CR...don't worry...I speak "Shelby" (as Beaver's mom said in Airplane) and will translate for you.
"I mean nationalize...not half-ass nationalize where the taxpayer takes more and more ownship of the bankrupt bank but the same corporate heads are still in place and business goes on as usual with all parties whispering in the dark and pretending the bank is still alive...I mean...stock and bondholders take their medicine...and the bank is reopened after the bankruptcy is acknowleged..."
I'm a Tennessean too and I hope you've translated the Alabamian right. 'Cause I'm not sure that's it. I think he really wants a Lehman-style collapse come hell or high water.
I'm a Tennessean too and I hope you've translated the Alabamian right. 'Cause I'm not sure that's it. I think he really wants a Lehman-style collapse come hell or high water.
If he gets a Lehman-style collapse of Citi - even Shelby will be out picking cotton. The economy goes back to 1820 or there about.
instead, we could force all CDS contracts into a central clearing house. Of course they would need to be altered slightly so that they would be more "conforming" but it could be done IN THEORY.
then we could let a big bank fail. the clearing house would help with the cascading cross default situation... or at least it would help us have transparency with who is solvent and who is insolvent more quickly.
This is exactly correct, Yearning. Voiding these contracts by government decree is simply impossible.
I'm in: I'll take the $130K, no innocent folk in jail, and I don't understand the last question, but I am generally in favor of a health/welfare safety net.
"The big banks need the FDIC treatment. They need pre-privatization."
You understand that due to the bankruptcy law changes of 2005, before any bank is "treated" by the FDIC, CDS are activated and taken from the bank assets BEFORE any other creditors are dealt with. In other words, all the assets go to satisfy the CDS (ie. more money goes to GS, and others)
Sounds like a great place to start changing the laws that govern the shitpile. That bankruptcy law was a giveaway to banks with lots of unintended consequences.
Since we are already changing all the rules that govern why not this one?
Comment by a diplomat at the Davos summit:
“Three countries looking favorably at the US are Israel, India and Vietnam.”
Now we know some of the rotten governments in the world. India, primarily, is because of all the Americanized and Anglicized crooks that run the system. Sometimes the locally bred crooks in India outsmart the American-bred crooks, though, but they lack the cachet.
When Shelby says "bury them" he's saying that any money remaining in the bank's Vault should be brought down to Mississippi and buried out on his Back Forty.
ROGNM says:Today, 3:39:36 PM CDT
When Shelby says "bury them" he's saying that any money remaining in the bank's Vault should be brought down to Mississippi and buried out on his Back Forty.
He's from Alabama. We got our own scoundrels in Mississippi.
He'll take care of it from there.
--
Just got a report on Las Vegas homes listed for resale. For more than a year 60%+ of the listed homes are vacant. Add 10% carrying cost to 40% annual rate price decline and you got some bag holders suffering badly. Bunch of dopes that were speculating, I guess.
When will the FINALLY bite the damn bullet and 'pre-privatize' these corpses. Spin out the working bits and quietly bury the parts with gangrene. Even a banking MBA should be able to understand that concept.
It'll also have to happen in conjunction with re-introducing legislation to stop the rise these mega dinosaurs. hmm... Glass-Steagall versoion 2009
Perhaps I am completely misguided here, but if CitiBank's depositors decided to pull their money from the bank tomorrow - an electronic bank run, wouldn't we have to FDIC the place in that event? The government wouldn't have any choice would they?
I think there is a bigger policy issue with respect to credit derivatives: if you have a generous coupon, why do you need an additional hedge? And if you can't afford to buy the bond without the hedge, then let someone with a higher risk tolerance purchase it.
I am not convinced there is a real economic justification for some of these derivatives.
Your selection is more based on your full body of work which has been incredible.
thanks--here's my form letter....
MAXIMUS has selected one of your posts as one of the best online during the last week. Congratulations and thanks for helping educate the public during this most critical period.
Doc at the Radar Station says:Today, 3:49:46 PM“Perhaps I am completely misguided here, but if CitiBank's depositors decided to pull their money from the bank tomorrow - an electronic bank run, wouldn't we have to FDIC the place in that event? The government wouldn't have any choice would they?
Maybe although maybe this has already happened and they bailed them out instead? Seems somewhat logical though.
"These are the most alpha of alpha males. Unfortuately being an alpha male does not qualify you to run a business, only shove your way to the top"
I think you are on to something...though guys like Mack, Pandit, Fuld, and Lewis look ready to be ground down, the real alphas are their handlers, Robert Rubin, James Baker et. al. Team Obama destroyed Hillary in the primaries, but after the election, Rubin made sure his acolyte was in a position of power, to run the international side of the game.
Because I know that after a certain point what matters is not how much money you take in, but how much sticks, whether it is in the form of a paid for house, savings, extra food glod etc, etc. And most employed Americans are beyond that point.
There used to be occasional stories about how a welfare mother saved quite a few dollars out of her pittance and then got into trouble 'cause she had too much money.
Sad thing is, I consider myself a spender, in the light of my frugal family history, and everyone else thinks I am frugal! I tell them you never met my grandmother, she knew how to not spend money. Actually to an extreme. A depression can do that to you. Having a miser as an ancestor is not a bad thing.
--
More from the BOOK TV talk… WHEN GIANTS FALLS by Michael Panzner
China’s “Nuclear Option” is not bombs but financial (holdings of the US Treasuries).
China doesn’t plan to use it but it is a threat that Oba-maniacs must keep in mind. Chinese will simply let Americans self-destruct. They like low-cost solutions, or battles, for fight the ongoing economic WW III.
The stock market can “halve from here [02/25/09] and still not be cheap.”
The idea of "pure" speculators is right up there with a "Virgin Mary". But one class of not-so-pure speculators will benefit immensely from partial communism: gold speculators.
>:o Let's say a bank started printing its own currency and people used it. Later, that bank and others who did the same fail and are nationalized. The bank-issued quasi-currency would quickly become almost worthless, as the government doing the nationalization would not honor any of it. Same would go for the non-regulated quasi-insurance out there these days that we call Credit Default Swaps (CDS).
The former scenario isn't just a hypothetical - it was a major factor necessitating the formation of the Second Bank of the United States? Don't you think the latter might be the reason for the Third Bank of the United States?
“Wrong YTL. CDS's need to go the way of the dodo bird. Burn the big gamblers bad enough and they'll stay away from fire (specific deterrence) and others will, too if it's public enough (general deterrence). Risk theory 101.
I disagree.
CDS do need to go the way of the dodo... but we can make all FUTURE CDS illegal without changing the fact that prior CDS contracts were legal.
Given that those CDS contracts were legal, and we have NO IDEA who holds what, it may be unwise to simply declare them all void. IN doing so, we we give all CDS writers a get out of jail free card, and screw all CDS purchasers.
(since the CDS writers keep the premium, and now don't have to pay up).
Why do you feel that the CDS writers (people like AIG and the big banks and hedge funds etc) are more important than CDS purchasers (the same entities, but also pension funds and municipalities etc).????
there is SOME money in those CDS contracts. Thus, put them in a clearing house, and let them trigger. Then all the responsible parties will either have to pay up or go out of business.
it is the ONLY way to enforce US contract law (an important thing) and also punish those who bet/invested poorly.
in my system, ALL of the gamblers will get burned (most of the players will likely be immediately bankrupt, including our dear friends Goldman Sucks)
in your system (void all CDS), all CDS writers get off scot free (hedgies and AIG etc), and then no contract will be seen as enforceable in our USofA.
After how many trillions... cmon this is getting ridiculous. and now with the fdic backdoor, how much more taxpayer debt do we have to create to bailout these asses?!? its already bad and going to get worse. yet we still cling to a financial system that is essentially bankrupt... and still greedy and depraved... and our elected officials arent that far behind them as always.
As a ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee you would think Shelby would understand how things work a little better. This kind of sloppy thinking is not going to help us get out of a complex crisis, that's for sure.
How 'bout this. Set a generous base max "net worth" (ie $25Million) for an individual (or couple) and expropriate 75-100% (based on age or sliding scale??) of everything above that based on the fact that the economy (& therefore any gains) was all built on a house of lies/deceit/corruption/failure over the last 30 to 40 years. Surely $25Million is lots for any one (or two) people (how 'bout it Oprah, Bill, Warren, Paulson etc?)
Apply the $$$ to gov (taxpayer) debts and highest priority (risky domino) other crap out there. Basically a reset. In concert, either ban the shadow banking system or have a market for CDS's etc and whatever other "rules" that need to be done.
Shelby is right. I keep saying the same thing on my blog. His point is that the very names such as Citibank/Citigroup are toxic. Whatever emerges from bankruptcy/receivership/nationalization, it should be a totally new entity with a new corporate culture. That's his point.
So far as the CDS situation under the 2005 law, it was obviously a corrupt law and should both be repealed and under an emergency situation, ignored if needed.
"His point is that the very names such as Citibank/Citigroup are toxic. Whatever emerges from bankruptcy/receivership/nationalization, it should be a totally new entity with a new corporate culture."
The Citi culture is toxic and that's one of the reasons Conjure says it must die.
FDIC held on the IndyMac for six months trying to prove out much smarter government officials were compared to actual bankers. The redefault rate on FDIC loan modifications where only 30% in the first six months.
Why not simply let the FDIC handle them, as would be done in a smaller bank failure?
We don't hear about the FDIC nationalizing banks. We just hear about failed banks having their deposits secured by the FDIC.
I think in hindsight, we probably should have put limited new assets into the failed companies, just let them fail, do what is prudent to limit collateral damage, and put any restorative stimulus out to the general economy rather than as bailouts for the failures.
could they split up one of the big ones and assign the customers/deposits to smaller regionals without going through a pre-privatization and then reselling into the private sector?
Y'all are completely missing the point. This here is good ol' boy politics. Trust me, he'd never say nuttin like that about any bank charted south of the Mason Dixon line. SunTrust & BBT are so safe, Stephens too. Think of it as a form of Deliverance...
Citigroup isn't protected by the FDIC. Check out Sheila Sheila C. Bai on 60 minutes tonight.
"We only deal with the resolution of a bank, a state or federally chartered depository institutions. These very large institutions that are creating the headlines, thease are very large financial organizations. It's more than a bank, it's a broker deal, it's off shore operations, it's foreign deposits.."
O has chosen his battle plan and it is decisively in favor of doing anything and everything to jumpstart the existing system. No prosecutions, no regulation of CDS, no nationalization, more bailouts and revival of securitization. He has sided with the miscreants who created this mess. There is no turning back until it burns to the ground.Only then can a new financial system emerge. To continue the military metaphor, this Custer's first and last stand. Sad.
In military terms, sometimes sacrifices have to be made for the larger good. In this case, Obama and his crew may not make it, but it will have been for a cause they believed in.
We've here before, it's called the Carter administration.
Carter appointed Volcker chairman of the Fed to squeeze inflation out of the economy and the recession it caused (as well as the inept handling of the Iranian hostage seizure) cost Carter the electio
I was in NY meeting with some major players in the banking industry a couple weeks ago. Privately, they say that there is a lot of private money waiting for some certainty in the market with respect to financial institutions. Nobody wants to make a bet and have Obama/Bernie/Geitner come in and decide that bet loses.
Shelby has it right, whether he has sound reasoning for it or not. Chapter 11 is where Citi belongs. Yes, there will be carnage as the assets are divided up. Particularly if certain creditors engaged in any kind of inequitable conduct feeding various liens.
But, in the end, the death of the big banks would create a vaccum for new, well-capitalized and run banks.
Ideally, the US would just have done nothing. We have a great insolvency system in this country. It is a shame that we won't let big companies use it. We'd be about 2 trillion dollars (or maybe its more like 3-4) ahead of the game had we just let "Armageddon" happen a year ago.
I agree with CR’s concept of pre-privatization, which is also the approach that Roubini takes. Why isn’t this on the table with the US government? My guess is that there are powerful parties that would be hurt in the process: bondholders, CDS holders, etc. If the US taxpayer simply keeps shoveling money into these institutions, theses powerful parties are well served. If pre-privatization (nationalization, or as Robert Reich suggest calling it “chopped liver,”) is followed, these folks get fried! They will be forced to recognize a loss on their investments.
AIG is a great example of the influence of selected people. If we believe the Wall Street Journal and others, the main beneficiaries of the AIG bailout so far has been Goldman, Deutsche Bank, Merrill and others of a similar ilk. Sounds like an inside bank job to me. Goldman sends Paulson to Treasury, Treasury and Fed bails out AIG, Goldman pockets $6 billion. I am a died-in-the-wool fan of having people experience the consequences of their actions. But this nonsense on Wall Street is beginning to make me feel compassionate for the 20-something year-old who knocks over a gas station for $200 and spends years in jail. $6 billion goes to Goldman and they live in luxury. $200 goes to the 20-something year-old and he’s doing hard time.
I think the problem with the semantics of "nationalization" is e.g. AIG. The govt now owns 80% of AIG. AIG is not being unwound and thrown away, to most eyes. It's trying to live to pay back what it owes.
When Shelby and others say "no nationalization" they mean "stop govt owning of the banks with no intention of selling of their assets"
if they just keep propping up citi with more money, that's not bankruptcy and selling off the assets.
The issue is whether Citi and other insolvent large banks should have their bad debt taken off their books by the government (i.e., the taxpayer would cover the debt) and then permitted to function again. This has been termed nationalization, or more wryly, "pre-privatization."
Senator Shelby's suggestion is for the FDIC to "close down" these insolvent large banks, much like it does smaller banks, and sell their assets to solvent banks. Depositors would be reimbursed for $250K max.
The first option is completely unacceptable because it is attempting to bail-out bank bondholders at taxpayer expense, which is of course ludicrous -- the people that loan a firm money (via bonds) that later goes bankrupt shouldn't be somehow bailed-out by people who chose not to loan the firm money.
In the second, normal, method everyone associated with the bank loses: shareholders, bondholders, and depositors with more than $250K in deposits. This is how it should be.
Bondholders often have a moral problem: they think bonds are "safe investments" and the bank nationalization/bailout nonsense proves it.
"bury some big ones" I think Shelby's looking at Yucca Mountain as a bank cemetery. Phil Graham could deliver the eulogy for Citigroup. Robert Rubin and Allen Greenspan could be the chief pallbearers. Sic transit....
The Citibank subsidiaries of Citigroup are regulated by the FDIC. Whatever Bair meant by what she said, and I wondered myself as I listened to her, it could not be that FDIC does not have jurisdiction over that part of the Citi operations.
Here's some data from the FDIC website. I hope it's legible. Each line (ends ||) has the sub name, city where "located," total deposits in $000, and pct of deposits insured by FDIC. Right before they show me my new pony, they're going to reveal that all the hem-hawing about who can do what with Citi has just been vamping until they could get everything lined up for one of those receivership** rollouts like at little Heritage bank. Imagine doing that for one of the big 4!
Citibank [Banamex USA]\t Century City CA\t $1,020,682 (67) ||
Citibank (South Dakota), N.A.\tSioux Falls SD\t $46,449,951 (98) ||
Citibank, National Association\tLas Vegas NV\t $755,298,000 (43) ||
Citicorp Trust Bank, fsb Wilmington DE $8,224,952 (98) ||
====
**Receivership, not bankruptcy, is what FDIC implements. They are different, so (IANAL) I don't think the bankruptcy law shenanigans have any effect.
I am glad to read Prof. Stiglitz: The Good Bank proposal has the advantage of avoiding the N-word: nationalization. Some believe a more polite term, "conservatorship" as it was called in the case of Fannie Mae, may be more palatable. It should be clear, though, that whatever it is called, the Good Bank proposal entails little more than playing by longstanding rules, a variant of standard practices to deal with firms whose liabilities exceed their assets . This is definitely consistent with what I had been writing for some time and recently here. Let's set up some good banks via the "bridge banks" in conservatorship.
"I'm not sure what else Shelby could mean by 'bury some big ones'"
Sen. Shelby doesn't really know what that means either, but it makes him look tough. And that's more important than doing the right things to stave off Great Depression 2: the Sequel.
For this financial crisis in the US, for those responsible-the politicians, the bankers, the regulators, the mega corporations and the large media talking heads never gave a singe word of regret or apologized to the millions and millions of people who were financially devastated.
"When the FDIC "buries a small bank" - they temporarily nationalize the bank, and then reprivatize the bank."
The problem is that they usually re-privatize by selling to a larger bank. In the case of the few biggest banks, that would just create an even larger problem bank that is even harder to take down.
They should take them down by taking them apart, and selling them in small pieces.
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Not necessarily. The FDIC could also sell off the assets completely and pay off all obligations, but they've lacked the will to do that. They usually add a couple billion in capital and find another buyer.
maybe it because they don't the money to pull the trigger? the size of some of these banks is in the trillions not billions. and the FDIC is already having to get more money with the banks as the banks that have already failed have depleted it. and that size problem also happens to lengthen the turn around. with a much smaller bank they can come in on a friday and be open on monday. its very doubtful they could accomplish that with a TBTF bank. it might be a week before it reopens. and just who will buy their assets? there is no source of money available to do that.
There is not necessarly a buyer for C.
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
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Something excellent ucodgen posted on JTR's blog:
Congress wonders why the secondary market has dried up??? Most mortgages were handled on the secondary market.
Investors to Home-purchaser: I will loan you money to purchase the property using the property as security for the loan. If you can’t pay, I’ll take the property since, after all, it was I that really paid for it. Since I will have taken back the property, you will owe nothing else at that point. When you have paid off the loan, the house will be yours free and clear. Since house prices always go up, the principal is guaranteed.
Home-purchaser to Investors: Sounds good, This way I can avoid being priced out of the market. Since house prices always go up, I can sell it to cover the principal if paying the mortgage might be too difficult. I may even exit with a profit
looks like two guilty parties here
From a month to a few years later..
home-purchaser: I can’t pay the current mortgage and I can’t sell the property to get clear– for whatever reason
Investors: Ok, per our agreement, I am going to foreclose on the property and you will be clear. I may take a loss, but at least this albatross will be off from about my neck.
ObamaAdmin to Investors: Oh no, you can’t do that. Who cares about contract law. We can’t deny people their dreams, their wants, no matter how unrealistic it is for them to be buying a million dollar house on a bus driver’s salary.
Investor1 to ObamaAdmin: It was my money that was loaned to buy the property.
ObamaAdmin to Investor1: Tough, you are rich. You should stop exploiting the poor people.
Investor1 to ObamaAdmin: If I am forced to take an additional loss and therefore to take a risk greater than specified on the original lending agreement, why should I ever loan money out for people to buy houses?
ObamaAdmin to Investor1: Tough, you are rich and have the money.. besides, the government will take care of everybody so everybody has what they wish.. except the rich.. and if there are any problems, well figure it out later..
Investor2 to ObamaAdmin: What about us? We are not rich, but are running a pension fund for retirement and health benefits. What happens if we can’t pay out what has been promised?
ObamaAdmin to Investor2: If they have a pension fund, they must be rich. If there are any problems here, we’ll figure it out later..
sdbri: We need to make people more aware of these absurdities. Although Obama doesn’t believe to that extent, this is an excellent description of the route some of his supporters want him to take. Moderates need to remind the government of these obvious realities.
sdbri says:Today, 1:43:26 PM
“Something excellent ucodgen posted on JTR's blog:
Congress wonders why the secondary market has dried up???
sdbri:
I don't necessarily disagree with the dialogue you wrote. However, the problem is FAR FAR greater than investor vs Obama. the issue began back when GWB was president.
the larger issue was this
-bank lends to homeborrower
-bank sells to investment bank
-investment bank creates security
-security is rated AAA by ratings agecencies (so equal to treasuries in theory)
-investors buy the securities.
fast forward:
-all of these AAA securities aren't worth the paper they're written on
-investors taking huge losses
-there is NO transparency in any of these securities. So you can't tell what was really junk but rated AAA, and what was AAA and rated AAA. Thus, can't tell between AAA and junk.
thus, investors refuse to buy these securities because they can't evaluate the securities.
The investors are angry at a lot more people besides Obama.
Only in a fairy tale world would the investors buy securities from Goldman sucks or the other lying cheating banks any time soon.
so although I agree that the contract law is a major issue with current securitization, there are FAR FAR FAR more important reasons why securitization is dead.
BLAH BLAH BLAH... investor to obama please bail me out.
Obama to investor: Drop Dead.
There's a BIG flaw in your scenario. It's this line:
"I may take a loss, but at least this albatross will be off from about my neck."
How exactly does an investor holding a foreclosed asset that is worth less than the original loan removing an albatross from the investor's neck?
Instead of removing an albatross, the investor has just assumed a toxic, non-performing asset that cannot be sold without a huge loss and provides zero cash flow.
That's why the cram-downs may be necessary. Investors in mortgage-backed securities will have to choose between getting 50% of their return or 0% of their return. Are they suicidal enough to worry about "breach of contract" when the existing contract is already bankrupting them?
I wouldn't spend too much time trying to figure out what Shelby meant, the guy's insane. It wasn't enough for him to have the blood of Lehman on his hands, now he wants a commercial bank to go the same way.
Dan, whatever else Shelby has done wrong, he was the leading force behind voting down the original TARP. First person to say no, and convinced practically everyone else who voted no. That makes him less of an idiot than everyone else in Congress at the time, McCain and Obama included. Oh, and I voted for Obama only because he was less crazy than stay the course McCain.
It wasn't enough for him to have the blood of Lehman on his hands, now he wants a commercial bank to go the same way.
You say that like it's a bad thing.
depends. did you like what happened last September or not? or where we are today? if you liked it then maybe its not fool hardy then
corporate america by carl ican
Session 15 - Guest Lecture by Carl Icahn — Open Yale Courses
amusing, unfortunately with the exemption of start ups, private firms, some tech it is mostly true.
:'(
there is one relieving fact that he does not mention - corporate world could be even worse
Have you been around many vc funded tech startups? Hmmm. Yuppie welfare 90 percent of the time. I made a fortune representing them. Anymore, its a shrinking market and I can no longer stomach the "I'm cool, I work at a startup" bs. Delusional. Low quality thought. No attention to market forces. Lotsa better mousetraps. All about get the next round at any cost.
Why is it that EVERYONE wants the same thing, and yet we can't get it done????
The big banks need the FDIC treatment. They need pre-privatization. They need re-privatization (my preferred term). They need to be decapitated (remove the failed management which has lost the trust of the markets). The investors need to take the appropriate haircuts with previous capital structure put into runoff. The operating businesses, most of which can survive, need to be spun off and/or recapitalized.
This is not rocket science. Why can't we just get it done?
It's quite likely that the market will not recover until this sector is restored to health.
because the FDIC doesn't have the money to do this? they are already having to get more cash. because of the banks that have already failed. and together those banks aren't as big.
you might be right about the market not recovering. if thats true then the market is down for a long time. no matter what happens. the trust in the finance companies is gone
I've got a better idea: shut down CONGRESS and the Whtie House and appoint China as the Trustee In Bankrupcy In Residence At The White House.
Yours In Communism,
Kilgore Trout
Across the pond.
Labour stakes its reputation on second gamble |
Politics |
The Guardian
Privately, something close to desperation is starting to develop inside government. After watching the slide in bank shares on Friday, one cabinet minister did not altogether joke when he said: "The banks are fucked, we're fucked, the country's fucked."
"The big banks need the FDIC treatment. They need pre-privatization."
You understand that due to the bankruptcy law changes of 2005, before any bank is "treated" by the FDIC, CDS are activated and taken from the bank assets BEFORE any other creditors are dealt with. In other words, all the assets go to satisfy the CDS (ie. more money goes to GS, and others)
Do you have a link or citation ? You are speaking of Chapter 7 Bankruptcy ?
....and usually no money remains for anything else.
Conjure says, "Mr. President, stop worrying about what Rush Limbaugh thinks, kick Geithner in the ass and start seizing problem banks."
"Get on with it before the whole damned economy burns down."
"I wouldn't spend too much time trying to figure out what Shelby meant, the guy's insane. It wasn't enough for him to have the blood of Lehman on his hands, now he wants a commercial bank to go the same way."
You wouldn't happen to write for the New York Times would you?
Seems to me that bankruptcy, not nationalization is the solution. The shareholders are already close to wiped out and dividends largely abandoned. Bad assets will bleed out over time, but you can't really do anything to change that fact. The remaining problem is too much debt, which can only be cleared by bankruptcy, or by the FDIC's bankruptcy like powers. In my opinion the only big one so far that was a complete f-up was WaMu--they nuked the shareholders and the bondholders and left a functioning operation. Do the same thing to all the big guys, I'm sure there will be a cascading effect since they're all incestuous with each others preferred and bonds, but in the end we will have a functioning banking system, instead of a great gaping wound we could pour an almost infinite amount of money into without closing.
What do you think "nationalization" means? It means temporary seizure of company, fire the management, wipe out shareholders, sell off toxic assets to vultures for pennies, re-privatize the "good bank" in pieces.
That's what EVERYBODY who speaks of nationalization means. And it's basically the same thing as FDIC but on a far larger scale.
That's one unusual type of temporary nationalization. Nationalization in its normal form happens all over the world and is permanent, involves no firing or changes to business. The government simply owns it.
The more you know...
Fold it up. Let's learn the full costs of hydraulic despotism.
When I set out to lead humanity along my Golden Path I promised a lesson their bones would remember. I know a profound pattern humans deny with words even while their actions affirm it. They say they seek security and quiet, conditions they call peace. Even as they speak, they create seeds of turmoil and violence.
-Leto II, The God Emperor
Conjure Bag is quite right. Do it quickly
Senator Shelby is not going to win any awards for being articulate or being the fastest talker or being the "details guy", but the he is invariably correct on fiscal and economics questions. He has voted against every bailout.
I believe if we stopped the bailouts, the market would being to restructure itself so that we can have confidence once again. The longer the government massively intervenes, the longer the market will remain uncertain of what actions to take. It is just lengthening the misery. Moreover, in may cases, a bailout is just moving risk from the private sector onto the government, which needlessly endangers the dollar.
In the words of foreclosure icon Ed McMahon (but hopefully with more reflection and abstract thought) "YOU ARE CORRECT, SIR!"
OK, Right, but as Denninger notes we might be throwing 50-100 million people out of their homes. NOT acceptable.
you might be right. it would have restructure it self ok. maybe it would be 2500 instead 6000+? after all its a heard mentality. as soon as the herd figured out that there was no safety in stock, they would all bail out. not sure that the misery would ever end though.
but you are right about the out sourcing of the risk.
but then again that becomes a social problem when you look at the scope of restructuring that would occur if we let it happen.
ck Star Ranch says:
Today, 11:57:19 AM
You understand that due to the bankruptcy law changes of 2005, before any bank is "treated" by the FDIC, CDS are activated and taken from the bank assets BEFORE any other creditors are dealt with. In other words, all the assets go to satisfy the CDS (ie. more money goes to GS, and others)
-o-oo-o
The proposed dismantling of AIG by selling off the viable & valuable businesses seems to have happened after certain CDS were settled. Now that plan is deemed not working.
Have we already re-defined "bankruptcy"?
\t
AP story via Yahoo
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
look at what the article's poster chose for the URL title
I read this in another comment and I feel that it is not only good but well worth repeating. I man walks into a bank and pulls a gun on the teller. This is a hold up, give me your money. But sir con't you realize this is a bank, we have no money.
Is the drama with Rush playing anywhere besides DC?
BTW, whatever happened to that blowtard O'Reilly? Has he fallen from the face of the earth?
The fed can't afford the CDS losses if Citi is nationalized, reprivatized, or buried. So zombie it is!
Shelby to Citibank: We will bury you.
Then Shelby took his shoe off and banged it on the podium. =-O
"Bury some big ones."
Better bury them than just let them sit there and stink up the campground!
"The fed can't afford the CDS losses if Citi is nationalized, reprivatized, or buried. So zombie it is!"
Conjure says, "You underestimate the power of stun guns."
"It's time to apply some voltage, but does Obama have what it takes?"
"Geithner certainly doesn't."
I take this extremely seriously:
"Developing nations will have a $270 billion-$700 billion shortfall in paying for imports and servicing their debts in 2009 amid the global economic slowdown, Bloomberg reported March 8, citing a World Bank report. In a statement, World Bank President Robert Zoellick warned of a “growing crisis” in developing countries and said governments and multilateral lenders need to take action “to avoid social and political unrest.” The report says the global economy likely will contract for the first time since World War II, and growth will be at least 5 percentage points below potential. World trade is expected to make its most rapid decline in 80 years, with the decline steepest in East Asia. Worldwide industrial production is forecast to drop as much as 15 percent compared to 2008."
Drop the CDS. Void them. The only solution.
Just get on with getting rid of the bad banks..it's like a cancer cut it out or it will get the good >:o
"Drop the CDS. Void them. The only solution."
Conjure says, "By executive order."
"Drop the CDS. Void them. The only solution."
Conjure says, "By executive order."
That would destroy the ultrashort ETFs, no?
That would destroy the ultrashort ETFs, no?
I believe the ETFs employ equity swaps and futures, not CDS.
What is the pitfall to voiding CDS?
Absolutely nothing.
What is the pitfall to voiding CDS?
Naked exposure to bonds.
L: What is the pitfall to voiding CDS?
F: Naked exposure to bonds.
L: What is the pitfall of naked exposure to bonds?
Simple:
Imagine you are Bank Of America and have insured massive amount of toxic waste that you carry at high prices on your books because you got it insured by AIG.
No way the administration is going to do that.
Utter financial ruin for the bondholders.
Naked exposure to bonds, tell that to the school districts or the cities and townships that bought protection on their bonds by paying premium for cds protection. As you can see writing cds without any reserve is a nasty and should be criminal.
Could you explain this more?
What part of utter financial ruin don't you understand?
voiding CDS's would cause a lot of overleveraged banks and insurance companies, especially in europe, to run afoul of their regulatory capital requirements. IMCO the capital requirements are riddled with disastrous mistakes anyway, and need to be completely re-done from scratch.
I don't understand the CDS food chain very well.
So, void CDS, and over leveraged banks face a sudden need for additional capital which logic says they need anyway as they are under capitalized - no? They've been getting away with inadequate capital because it's legal but not healthy. So, it sounds like void CDS and overnight it becomes clear just which banks are unhealthy, no? Isn't that exactly what should be getting purged out of the system?
Isn't that exactly what should be getting purged out of the system?
It looks like voiding the CDS would result in something akin to the cascading default event.
Yes, and that would purge out of the system virtually every bank in Europe. I guess they could trade cowrie shells.
Senator Shelby is right. I am sure he will be agreeable, to do the best thing. That is, take the bank, clean the bank and put the bank back in the market. Simple, may be painful, but it is right thing to do. =-O
That's called nationalization. Why does he oppose it?
"What is the pitfall to voiding CDS?"
With all due respect, you need to concentrate on the political and economic consequences of not voiding them.
There is no "immaculate conception" here. They've got to do something decisive, and do it now, or the economy is going to burn down.
They've got to do something decisive, and do it now, or the economy is going to burn down. The problem with this idea is that you think that they have the same view of the economy that you do. Just because it "burns down", some folks are still going to come out fine. They happen to be the ones depending on stretching any resolution out. If the economy you and I know survives somehow, well, how lucky for us. If not, they still doubt that they will be the one's without a chair! Everyone's a winner!
[SHELBY: Close -- close them down, get them out of business. If they're dead, they ought to be buried. We bury the small banks; we've got to bury some big ones and send a strong message to the market. And I believe that people will start investing in banks. People aren't...]
While he is half right (banks should be buried) no one will start investing in the large scale manner of the past few decades. It's just not feasible in this environment. This is not a bad thing. Markets will continue to crumble because of the earnings scenario but at least we'll be able to focus investment in the correct areas, not in black holes. Shelby must admit that the goal of investment at the garage, university and corporate level is to produce strategic options, not short term cash flow to cover debt overhang. Otherwise we'll be locked in a revolving door of "stimulus".
The Latest from Mish:
Dairy Farm Crisis; Milk Prices Turn Sour
It's foolish to drink milk.
It costs more than gas.
It's also foolish to drink gas.
You have to understand that, on the buyer's side, CDS's were largely a scheme to have their cake and eat the taxpayer's cake too. Firms would load up on risk, then buy CDS's that would "magically" erase the risk (actually, transfer risk to the US taxpayer), thus allowing them to get leveraged to the hilt. Thus our world's biggest financial companies are built on a foundation of lies.
Conjure says, "All of you need to stop re-arranging deck chairs and get on with it."
"There is no perfect solution."
"The economy will burn down while you look for one."
We can't get it done--closing/preprivatizing big banks because the right and powerful management/owners must be faced down.
These are the most alpha of alpha males. Unfortuately being an alpha male does not qualify you to run a business, only shove your way to the top.
Nevertheless beta males are terrified to challenge alphas for the very good reason that they could be seriously hurt or killed.
The guy I've referenced before, who was on NPR said that the hardest thing the Swedish model had to do was face down the 2 families and family heads involved in the 2 yep 2 banks actually involved in the Swedish model, and a great deal of time and planning was spent on this issue. The Swedish bank owners/managers had taken care to keep good connections with politicians and felt they should just get money to keep their institutions going. The humble bureaucrats were carefully ringfenced and protected before they attempted to do this.
Alpha males are easily handled. They believe thier own bullshit until new younger alpha males kills them. The silver backs are about to be sent to the Gorilla graveyard one way or another.
Well why don't we invite these so called alpha male into the MMA cage and see how tough they really are. Please don't call them alpha males because physically they are all weak men.
"We can't get it done--closing/preprivatizing big banks because the right and powerful management/owners must be faced down."
Uh, it's the right pushing for them to be shut down. McCain, Shelby, Graham...
Imagine you're an infantry leader and your position is being overrun by the enemy. What do you do?
Crawl into your hole and call in frag on your position.
That's what you do. That's what Obama must now do with the problem banks. It's the price you pay for being a leader.
The thing that most people forget is that big banks are not founded only by deposits. Actually only half of their funding come from deposits. It's very different from small banks which are mostly funded by deposits.
In other words FDIC would not lose any money by closing Citi or Bank Of America. That's probably part of why they will do anything to avoid it, since there would be no excuse to dump trash on taxpayers.
"That would destroy the ultrashort ETFs, no?"
Conjure says, "It would destroy every pure speculator on the planet."
Close as in liquidate, perhaps?
Wonder what assets will go up for fire sale, though...
["What is the pitfall to voiding CDS?"
With all due respect, you need to concentrate on the political and economic consequences of not voiding them.
There is no "immaculate conception" here. They've got to do something decisive, and do it now, or the economy is going to burn down.]
Yes, we need to split the crisis into 3 component and be borderline pedantic in their rigidness. We have financial collapse, economic turmoil and political incompetence.
1) Financial collapse has occurred, everyone knows the situation is untenable. So basing the solution off of contracts which will never be fulfilled is a waste of time. Which leads us onto...
2) Economically, we can't afford to stick to the framework set out in the past. It's not profitable to have a connected world suffer food or energy dislocations and the resultant social upheaval because it spills over into stable areas, disrupting economies. No matter how low or high tech. Which leads us to...
3) Political incompetence. Those in power haven't been able to separate the economy from finances and see that they are not one and the same. Banks go boom and bust and the world keeps revolving. Economies go boom and bust and the world suffers.
In military terms, Obama and his crew will soon be locked in a "decisive engagement" with the banks. In a decisive engagement there is only black or white, victor or vanquished, survivor or... dead.
These guys had better find it. Fast.
In military terms, sometimes sacrifices have to be made for the larger good. In this case, Obama and his crew may not make it, but it will have been for a cause they believed in.
We've been here before, it's called the Carter administration.
Well the support to the banks is really imaginary, so why not withhold the support, and gradually get them to raise real capital. I really don't understand the problem. Does somebody really believe that these trillions and trillions of alphabet soup bets are really going to be paid off? Oh, ok, maybe the first couple of defaults, but after that?
Does even one person posting here from Dawg to Jas and anybody of any stripe inbetween believe that significant payment will happen?
I feel like we are in a Phony War environment. We know something big is gonna happen, but not what or when. In the meantime, we are eating at restaurants (Long Horn Steak House reasonably full), buying stuff at Home Depot (ditto) and otherwise just conducting our lives, while behind the scenes, intense war preparation is happening.
Does somebody really believe that these trillions and trillions of alphabet soup bets are really going to be paid off?
"Of course they're safe. There's absolutely no doubt about that. They are as strong, solid and as safe as any other building method in this country provided of course people believe in them."
Monty Python's Flying Circus: Just the Words - Episode 35
"It would destroy every pure speculator on the planet."
Good.
Ah, mp, we agree and you agree with NPR guy.
Alphas and betas at war.
Smart better win.
Smart always wins if it is smart enough. A lot of people confuse what smart really means. It doesn't come with the imprimatur of an elite education or a high paying job.
IMO, Obama knows what he has to do; he just can't bring himself to make the phone call.
We'll find out in a couple of years whether the Liquidationists had a better solution. All of the liabilities we keep taking on look mighty scary to me.
After the Romans fell, there was still a hierarchy.
But the people on top were in very poor shape indeed.
No more clean water even. No more medicine. the Romans could set a broken arm, could the Vikings?
No more stone buildings for a while. I think there would be some alphas who would rather be on top in a broken down world than live in a pleasant world, only not quite on top. We need to do some evolving here.
Which Roman empire? Byzantine empire lasted far longer than western Roman empire & not troubled by Vikings, threats to Byz came from elsewhere & the Byzantine Empire shrunk but lasted until, I think it was 1452 or 53, before the Ottomans finally took Constantinople. Byz empire was a sophisticated culture, gov't & society.
There were interesting complex cultures in the Americas too, during the time you're speaking of.
Allen C. we are reaching the point where none of this means anything anymore. Stuff that can't be done. . .can't be done.
I like what I am hearing from Shelby
They, meaning Paulson, Bernanke & Company, should have been thinking about this crisis in military terms. You do not allow your own forces to become intermingled with the enemy. If that occurs, a "decisive engagement" takes place.
You use fire and maneuver, to envelope your enemy, then you destroy him with artillery and air power. You have the survivors bury their own when it's over.
That's how it's done.
Now, we're intermingled. The financial problem has spilled over into the real economy, so there will be a decisive engagement.
It's time for Obama to find it, otherwise we're all going to die, metaphorically speaking.
mp...so Obama pulls the trigger and declares checkmate to the CDSs--what is the domino effect, short term? (intended versus unintended consequences?)
The financial problem has spilled over into the real economy, so there will be a decisive engagement.
I expect that your decisive engagement is going to be the camp followers taking up knives in the middle of the night.
Congress Should Stop Giving GM Funds, Republican Lawmakers Say
Congress Should Stop Giving GM Funds, Republican Lawmakers Say - Bloomberg.com
“The best thing that could probably happen to General Motors, in my view, is they go into Chapter 11,” Senator John McCain said on the “Fox News Sunday” program today.
The automaker could reorganize and renegotiate its labor contracts to come out “stronger, better, leaner,” McCain, from Arizona, said.
"I expect that your decisive engagement is going to be the camp followers taking up knives in the middle of the night."
The decisive engagement will result in either a long period of depressed economic activity (recession), or the total destruction of the US economy (depression).
Either way, Mr. President, the choice is yours and you will be burdoned with the blame.
How do you choose?
You mean "burdened".
sorry if this is a repost... halo/jskit ate my other one evidently.
I'm not so sure that we need to nullify all CDS contracts. Doing so is a de-facto cascading cross default situation, and I'm not sure that's the wisest idea.
instead, we could force all CDS contracts into a central clearing house. Of course they would need to be altered slightly so that they would be more "conforming" but it could be done IN THEORY.
then we could let a big bank fail. the clearing house would help with the cascading cross default situation... or at least it would help us have transparency with who is solvent and who is insolvent more quickly.
using this info, we could quickly close up the insolvent and roll their assets into the solvent. There may be 1 or 2 big banks out there that could survive... and maybe a few regionals and also some locals...
going forward we clearly need all OTC derivatives to trade in a transparent market or be made illegal. and we also need a "too big to be allowed to exist" policy as well, to prevent another Citimonster.
Wrong YTL. CDS's need to go the way of the dodo bird. Burn the big gamblers bad enough and they'll stay away from fire (specific deterrence) and others will, too if it's public enough (general deterrence). Risk theory 101.
There are big gamblers on both sides of the trade. You will not be able to burn them all.
Release Date: March 4, 2009
For immediate release
The Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday announced its approval of the application by ICE US Trust LLC, New York, New York (ICE Trust), to become a member of the Federal Reserve System. ICE Trust intends to provide central counterparty services for certain credit default swap contracts.
ICE Trust is one of several industry proposals that could satisfy the goals of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets regarding the formation of central counterparties for credit default swaps. In November 2008, the President's Working Group called for the successful implementation of central counterparty services with a view toward reducing systemic risk associated with counterparty credit exposures, facilitating greater market transparency, and encouraging a more competitive trading environment.
Attached is the Board's Order relating to this action.
Attachment (36 KB PDF)
I beat McCain and even GM's own auditors in calling for chapter 11 bankruptcy. Articles below.
Tough decisions on GM and Chrysler - why bankruptcy is the best way to save the industry:
Organizing for America | Brian Diego's Blog: Tough decisions on GM and Chrysler - why bankruptcy is the best way to save the industry
Front page of WSJ: "GM More Open to Bankruptcy":
Organizing for America | Brian Diego's Blog: Front page of WSJ: "GM More Open to Bankruptcy"
Of course the White House is still making up its mind as money gets burned.
In other news, FHA loans are defaulting without even a single payment:
The Next Hit: Quick Defaults - washingtonpost.com
The good news that FHA is self correcting. The more defaults, the more careful FHA will have to be in giving out loans in the future. Or, they could charge their customers more.
The ironic news will be if the government begins bailing itself out. Good luck with that!
i figure if GM does bankruptcy, they might as well do the chapter 7. I know i will be in the market for a car later this year, and if the do go into bankruptcy they will be off my list for a car. NO IF AND OR BUTS.
course i don't see where they will get their DIP funds without the government doing it, and that defeats the purpose of doing it at all. since the government would still end up giving them funds. and the going chapter 7 will cause the current economic debacle to be much worse.
but FHA (and FREDDIE and FANNIE before it) doesn't actually make the loans. they just insure them. but hopefully soon FHA will kick the bad mortgage companies out of their program and force some of them to pay it back for their fraud.
this downturn sucks
"we could force all CDS contracts into a central clearing house."
Good.
The clearing house opens tomorrow. We'll see how many swaps actually get traded there.
bubble sucked
live in fantasy die in fantasy
There are two types of CDS buyer:
1) speculator -- someone without an interest in the underlying
2) hedger -- someone with an interest in the underlying
I propose that each of these get the premiums they paid back.
A speculator only gets the premiums returned. A hedger gets the
premiums back, plus any decrease in the value of the underlying.
This would be the settlement of existing CDSs.
Going forward, they must only be traded on an exchange and,
like the insurance they are, only available to hedgers.
The write of any CDS should also have to put up enough
money to demonstrate that they could handle the loss.
reptillian,
returning the premiums could probably be worked, but the decrease in the value of the underlying assets is massive. Loading them onto the gov just shifts the problem around, and treasuries are already on the precipice.
[I think there would be some alphas who would rather be on top in a broken down world than live in a pleasant world, only not quite on top.]
Here's a question I like to ask new groups of people while debating geopolitics and world trade.
Would you rather make $130K knowing your neighbours make $200K or would you rather make $90K knowing they only make $80K?
There is no right answer, but the justification of their position often gives out more information than they believe. Sometimes I like to ask followup questions if they haven't become hostile:
Is it better to have every guilty person in jail if that means that a few innocent people are locked up or would you rather a few guilty people are free so no innocent person is locked up?
And.
Should a basic level of welfare and health care exist so less affluent but motivated people don't have to make short-term decisions to make ends meet instead of retraining or spending extra time on a job search?
There is no right answer for any of these questions. They are meant to spur debate and an out loud thought process. It's amazing how answers can betray the image people wish to portray of themselves.
Better to rule in hell than serve in paradise, no?
1) Clearly the former.
2) calculate the sum of damage done to innocent people due to false incarceration + damage done to innocent people by guilty people not in jail. Set the system to minimize the total.
3) question is to vague/too many unspecified parameters.
Rhymes...
Calculated Risk: Fed and Treasury announce restructuring of AIG financial support
When Lehmann went down it froze up the credit system, caused massive market losses, AIG to get bailed out and this was because of CDS effects. If CDS are eliminated by executive order what would be the domino effect? Would not bonds be trashed and other investments downgraded that have the CDS "insurance"?
Seems like a fuse lit to a nuclear weapon to me. Ending with a burnt landscape and lots of radioactive material.
But then I am just a lower than low commenter to a blog.
Exchange or no, the thing that throws jet fuel on the CDS fire is probably the lack of collateral posting requirements. Which is an irresponsible bit of behavior we've now rewarded enormously by having the taxpayer fill in the gap. If taxpayers could simply repudiate any responsibility for these bad bets, and players required much more collateral, the majority of the CDS market would wither away, taking all the fraud with it. Of course, the
ame
CR...don't worry...I speak "Shelby" (as Beaver's mom said in Airplane) and will translate for you.
"I mean nationalize...not half-ass nationalize where the taxpayer takes more and more ownship of the bankrupt bank but the same corporate heads are still in place and business goes on as usual with all parties whispering in the dark and pretending the bank is still alive...I mean...stock and bondholders take their medicine...and the bank is reopened after the bankruptcy is acknowleged..."
I also speak a little Spanish....
I'm a Tennessean too and I hope you've translated the Alabamian right. 'Cause I'm not sure that's it. I think he really wants a Lehman-style collapse come hell or high water.
I'm a Tennessean too and I hope you've translated the Alabamian right. 'Cause I'm not sure that's it. I think he really wants a Lehman-style collapse come hell or high water.
If he gets a Lehman-style collapse of Citi - even Shelby will be out picking cotton. The economy goes back to 1820 or there about.
If only he he taken off his shoe, pounded it on the table, and said "We will bury you!"
That is how I feel these days.
But these so-called alphas don't seem to realize there's a train coming down the track loaded with folks carrying pitchforks looking for them.
If this issue isn't resolved soon it will be settled one way or the other.
er, pardon my cut-off post. The front-door route to solving the CDS problem is to fix the mistakes in Basel II.
instead, we could force all CDS contracts into a central clearing house. Of course they would need to be altered slightly so that they would be more "conforming" but it could be done IN THEORY.
then we could let a big bank fail. the clearing house would help with the cascading cross default situation... or at least it would help us have transparency with who is solvent and who is insolvent more quickly.
This is exactly correct, Yearning. Voiding these contracts by government decree is simply impossible.
double inverse recession,
I'm in: I'll take the $130K, no innocent folk in jail, and I don't understand the last question, but I am generally in favor of a health/welfare safety net.
Black Star Ranch
"The big banks need the FDIC treatment. They need pre-privatization."
You understand that due to the bankruptcy law changes of 2005, before any bank is "treated" by the FDIC, CDS are activated and taken from the bank assets BEFORE any other creditors are dealt with. In other words, all the assets go to satisfy the CDS (ie. more money goes to GS, and others)
Sounds like a great place to start changing the laws that govern the shitpile. That bankruptcy law was a giveaway to banks with lots of unintended consequences.
Since we are already changing all the rules that govern why not this one?
--
Three countries looking favorably at the US
Comment by a diplomat at the Davos summit:
“Three countries looking favorably at the US are Israel, India and Vietnam.”
Now we know some of the rotten governments in the world. India, primarily, is because of all the Americanized and Anglicized crooks that run the system. Sometimes the locally bred crooks in India outsmart the American-bred crooks, though, but they lack the cachet.
Jas
This whole thing makes my head swim. It seems pretty clear that the monkeys (bankers) shouldn't be in charge of the bananas.
When Shelby says "bury them" he's saying that any money remaining in the bank's Vault should be brought down to Mississippi and buried out on his Back Forty.
He'll take care of it from there.
Big discussion currently on kos re this issus.
Daily Kos: Wall St. Bailout: Is A Massive Scandal About To Unfold?
ROGNM says:Today, 3:39:36 PM CDT
When Shelby says "bury them" he's saying that any money remaining in the bank's Vault should be brought down to Mississippi and buried out on his Back Forty.
He's from Alabama. We got our own scoundrels in Mississippi.
He'll take care of it from there.
--
Just got a report on Las Vegas homes listed for resale. For more than a year 60%+ of the listed homes are vacant. Add 10% carrying cost to 40% annual rate price decline and you got some bag holders suffering badly. Bunch of dopes that were speculating, I guess.
Jas
When will the FINALLY bite the damn bullet and 'pre-privatize' these corpses. Spin out the working bits and quietly bury the parts with gangrene. Even a banking MBA should be able to understand that concept.
It'll also have to happen in conjunction with re-introducing legislation to stop the rise these mega dinosaurs. hmm... Glass-Steagall versoion 2009
Perhaps I am completely misguided here, but if CitiBank's depositors decided to pull their money from the bank tomorrow - an electronic bank run, wouldn't we have to FDIC the place in that event? The government wouldn't have any choice would they?
I think there is a bigger policy issue with respect to credit derivatives: if you have a generous coupon, why do you need an additional hedge? And if you can't afford to buy the bond without the hedge, then let someone with a higher risk tolerance purchase it.
I am not convinced there is a real economic justification for some of these derivatives.
4best4worst’s Blog
CR
Your selection is more based on your full body of work which has been incredible.
thanks--here's my form letter....
MAXIMUS has selected one of your posts as one of the best online during the last week. Congratulations and thanks for helping educate the public during this most critical period.
To see this recommendation go to
4best4worst’s Blog
feel free to publicize this honor to your followers, there is no cost or benefit you need to offer in return.
MAXIMUS will continue to search for post like yours (as well as posts that can be harmful to the public).
Please contact us with links you feel can help our cause to educate the public at
4best4worst@gmail.com
thanks again for your great contributions....
MAXIMUS
ATM card, there is no economic justification. It's all a side effect of mistakes in the regulatory capital requirements.
Doc at the Radar Station says:Today, 3:49:46 PM“Perhaps I am completely misguided here, but if CitiBank's depositors decided to pull their money from the bank tomorrow - an electronic bank run, wouldn't we have to FDIC the place in that event? The government wouldn't have any choice would they?
Maybe although maybe this has already happened and they bailed them out instead? Seems somewhat logical though.
Is there a comment tutorial? How can I view these as a single page new window?
This just in... the best name I've seen for the meltdown:
GEMORA: Global Economic Meltdown Offers Rude Awakening
Has the Global Economic Crisis – or GEC – got us?
Kid expresses Shelby's sentiments in a more direct fashion
Little Kid Tries To Sing We Will Rock You Video
And not on a Friday either doc.
I signed up for BOA Risk free CD. BOA representative told me that risk free CDs can be withdrawn at anytime with no penalty but the rate is locked.
Somehow, i don't trust these banksters. Do you know what the catch is with Risk Free CDs?
"These are the most alpha of alpha males. Unfortuately being an alpha male does not qualify you to run a business, only shove your way to the top"
I think you are on to something...though guys like Mack, Pandit, Fuld, and Lewis look ready to be ground down, the real alphas are their handlers, Robert Rubin, James Baker et. al. Team Obama destroyed Hillary in the primaries, but after the election, Rubin made sure his acolyte was in a position of power, to run the international side of the game.
How low will "The Bezzle" go?
shelfy may be smart, and sincere, but in this case he's thinkin too simplisticaly
burryin the big ones aint gonnna be enuf
your gonna have to drive a stake thru their hearts first
or the counter party risk will bring down the entire financial system
how about a moratorium on all CDS premium payments settlements on the part of insolvent counterparties
DC just keeps getting dumber. Now we have politicians and economists with "word fear".
Oh, and I'd take the max money.
Because I know that after a certain point what matters is not how much money you take in, but how much sticks, whether it is in the form of a paid for house, savings, extra food glod etc, etc. And most employed Americans are beyond that point.
There used to be occasional stories about how a welfare mother saved quite a few dollars out of her pittance and then got into trouble 'cause she had too much money.
Sad thing is, I consider myself a spender, in the light of my frugal family history, and everyone else thinks I am frugal! I tell them you never met my grandmother, she knew how to not spend money. Actually to an extreme. A depression can do that to you. Having a miser as an ancestor is not a bad thing.
--
More from the BOOK TV talk… WHEN GIANTS FALLS by Michael Panzner
China doesn’t plan to use it but it is a threat that Oba-maniacs must keep in mind. Chinese will simply let Americans self-destruct. They like low-cost solutions, or battles, for fight the ongoing economic WW III.
Jas
"I'm not sure what else Shelby could mean by "bury some big ones". "
That's ok, neither does he.
The idea of "pure" speculators is right up there with a "Virgin Mary". But one class of not-so-pure speculators will benefit immensely from partial communism: gold speculators.
Hell YES!!!! It's about damn time! They need to BK these friggin' zombies or this crap is going to drag on forever.
Time for us savers to have our day in the sun.. We earned it. Our turn to pick up distressed assets at 20 cents on the dollar. That's how it works.
>:o Let's say a bank started printing its own currency and people used it. Later, that bank and others who did the same fail and are nationalized. The bank-issued quasi-currency would quickly become almost worthless, as the government doing the nationalization would not honor any of it. Same would go for the non-regulated quasi-insurance out there these days that we call Credit Default Swaps (CDS).
The former scenario isn't just a hypothetical - it was a major factor necessitating the formation of the Second Bank of the United States? Don't you think the latter might be the reason for the Third Bank of the United States?
That clock is at 11:58.12, btw.
“Wrong YTL. CDS's need to go the way of the dodo bird. Burn the big gamblers bad enough and they'll stay away from fire (specific deterrence) and others will, too if it's public enough (general deterrence). Risk theory 101.
I disagree.
CDS do need to go the way of the dodo... but we can make all FUTURE CDS illegal without changing the fact that prior CDS contracts were legal.
Given that those CDS contracts were legal, and we have NO IDEA who holds what, it may be unwise to simply declare them all void. IN doing so, we we give all CDS writers a get out of jail free card, and screw all CDS purchasers.
(since the CDS writers keep the premium, and now don't have to pay up).
Why do you feel that the CDS writers (people like AIG and the big banks and hedge funds etc) are more important than CDS purchasers (the same entities, but also pension funds and municipalities etc).????
there is SOME money in those CDS contracts. Thus, put them in a clearing house, and let them trigger. Then all the responsible parties will either have to pay up or go out of business.
it is the ONLY way to enforce US contract law (an important thing) and also punish those who bet/invested poorly.
in my system, ALL of the gamblers will get burned (most of the players will likely be immediately bankrupt, including our dear friends Goldman Sucks)
in your system (void all CDS), all CDS writers get off scot free (hedgies and AIG etc), and then no contract will be seen as enforceable in our USofA.
LET THEM FAIL
After how many trillions... cmon this is getting ridiculous. and now with the fdic backdoor, how much more taxpayer debt do we have to create to bailout these asses?!? its already bad and going to get worse. yet we still cling to a financial system that is essentially bankrupt... and still greedy and depraved... and our elected officials arent that far behind them as always.
As a ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee you would think Shelby would understand how things work a little better. This kind of sloppy thinking is not going to help us get out of a complex crisis, that's for sure.
How 'bout this. Set a generous base max "net worth" (ie $25Million) for an individual (or couple) and expropriate 75-100% (based on age or sliding scale??) of everything above that based on the fact that the economy (& therefore any gains) was all built on a house of lies/deceit/corruption/failure over the last 30 to 40 years. Surely $25Million is lots for any one (or two) people (how 'bout it Oprah, Bill, Warren, Paulson etc?)
Apply the $$$ to gov (taxpayer) debts and highest priority (risky domino) other crap out there. Basically a reset. In concert, either ban the shadow banking system or have a market for CDS's etc and whatever other "rules" that need to be done.
Shelby is right. I keep saying the same thing on my blog. His point is that the very names such as Citibank/Citigroup are toxic. Whatever emerges from bankruptcy/receivership/nationalization, it should be a totally new entity with a new corporate culture. That's his point.
So far as the CDS situation under the 2005 law, it was obviously a corrupt law and should both be repealed and under an emergency situation, ignored if needed.
"His point is that the very names such as Citibank/Citigroup are toxic. Whatever emerges from bankruptcy/receivership/nationalization, it should be a totally new entity with a new corporate culture."
The Citi culture is toxic and that's one of the reasons Conjure says it must die.
FDIC held on the IndyMac for six months trying to prove out much smarter government officials were compared to actual bankers. The redefault rate on FDIC loan modifications where only 30% in the first six months.
Why not simply let the FDIC handle them, as would be done in a smaller bank failure?
We don't hear about the FDIC nationalizing banks. We just hear about failed banks having their deposits secured by the FDIC.
I think in hindsight, we probably should have put limited new assets into the failed companies, just let them fail, do what is prudent to limit collateral damage, and put any restorative stimulus out to the general economy rather than as bailouts for the failures.
Citi is going to open at what... 50 cents ? After these remarks, that nice Mr Pandit may be having a severe ulcer attack.
could they split up one of the big ones and assign the customers/deposits to smaller regionals without going through a pre-privatization and then reselling into the private sector?
Y'all are completely missing the point. This here is good ol' boy politics. Trust me, he'd never say nuttin like that about any bank charted south of the Mason Dixon line. SunTrust & BBT are so safe, Stephens too. Think of it as a form of Deliverance...
Citigroup isn't protected by the FDIC. Check out Sheila Sheila C. Bai on 60 minutes tonight.
"We only deal with the resolution of a bank, a state or federally chartered depository institutions. These very large institutions that are creating the headlines, thease are very large financial organizations. It's more than a bank, it's a broker deal, it's off shore operations, it's foreign deposits.."
I look forward to the day when Citi is nationalized so that when I payoff the student loan that I owe them, I will be paying myself back....
O has chosen his battle plan and it is decisively in favor of doing anything and everything to jumpstart the existing system. No prosecutions, no regulation of CDS, no nationalization, more bailouts and revival of securitization. He has sided with the miscreants who created this mess. There is no turning back until it burns to the ground.Only then can a new financial system emerge. To continue the military metaphor, this Custer's first and last stand. Sad.
We are in the age
Of the Great Suppression. Wait
Soon, the Depression.
In military terms, sometimes sacrifices have to be made for the larger good. In this case, Obama and his crew may not make it, but it will have been for a cause they believed in.
We've here before, it's called the Carter administration.
Carter appointed Volcker chairman of the Fed to squeeze inflation out of the economy and the recession it caused (as well as the inept handling of the Iranian hostage seizure) cost Carter the electio
I was in NY meeting with some major players in the banking industry a couple weeks ago. Privately, they say that there is a lot of private money waiting for some certainty in the market with respect to financial institutions. Nobody wants to make a bet and have Obama/Bernie/Geitner come in and decide that bet loses.
Shelby has it right, whether he has sound reasoning for it or not. Chapter 11 is where Citi belongs. Yes, there will be carnage as the assets are divided up. Particularly if certain creditors engaged in any kind of inequitable conduct feeding various liens.
But, in the end, the death of the big banks would create a vaccum for new, well-capitalized and run banks.
Ideally, the US would just have done nothing. We have a great insolvency system in this country. It is a shame that we won't let big companies use it. We'd be about 2 trillion dollars (or maybe its more like 3-4) ahead of the game had we just let "Armageddon" happen a year ago.
A thing of beauty...
CITIGROUP INC Share Price Chart | C - Yahoo! Finance
ow i see it
I agree with CR’s concept of pre-privatization, which is also the approach that Roubini takes. Why isn’t this on the table with the US government? My guess is that there are powerful parties that would be hurt in the process: bondholders, CDS holders, etc. If the US taxpayer simply keeps shoveling money into these institutions, theses powerful parties are well served. If pre-privatization (nationalization, or as Robert Reich suggest calling it “chopped liver,”) is followed, these folks get fried! They will be forced to recognize a loss on their investments.
AIG is a great example of the influence of selected people. If we believe the Wall Street Journal and others, the main beneficiaries of the AIG bailout so far has been Goldman, Deutsche Bank, Merrill and others of a similar ilk. Sounds like an inside bank job to me. Goldman sends Paulson to Treasury, Treasury and Fed bails out AIG, Goldman pockets $6 billion. I am a died-in-the-wool fan of having people experience the consequences of their actions. But this nonsense on Wall Street is beginning to make me feel compassionate for the 20-something year-old who knocks over a gas station for $200 and spends years in jail. $6 billion goes to Goldman and they live in luxury. $200 goes to the 20-something year-old and he’s doing hard time.
I agree, bury the dead and don't keep pumping drugs into dead zombies or vampires or spirits, just deal with the dead and save the living!
Is it free to comment here?
I think the problem with the semantics of "nationalization" is e.g. AIG. The govt now owns 80% of AIG. AIG is not being unwound and thrown away, to most eyes. It's trying to live to pay back what it owes.
When Shelby and others say "no nationalization" they mean "stop govt owning of the banks with no intention of selling of their assets"
if they just keep propping up citi with more money, that's not bankruptcy and selling off the assets.
Google Doss Aviation and Shelby. Fun stuff.
Well, it's more than a semantics problem.
The issue is whether Citi and other insolvent large banks should have their bad debt taken off their books by the government (i.e., the taxpayer would cover the debt) and then permitted to function again. This has been termed nationalization, or more wryly, "pre-privatization."
Senator Shelby's suggestion is for the FDIC to "close down" these insolvent large banks, much like it does smaller banks, and sell their assets to solvent banks. Depositors would be reimbursed for $250K max.
The first option is completely unacceptable because it is attempting to bail-out bank bondholders at taxpayer expense, which is of course ludicrous -- the people that loan a firm money (via bonds) that later goes bankrupt shouldn't be somehow bailed-out by people who chose not to loan the firm money.
In the second, normal, method everyone associated with the bank loses: shareholders, bondholders, and depositors with more than $250K in deposits. This is how it should be.
Bondholders often have a moral problem: they think bonds are "safe investments" and the bank nationalization/bailout nonsense proves it.
"bury some big ones" I think Shelby's looking at Yucca Mountain as a bank cemetery. Phil Graham could deliver the eulogy for Citigroup. Robert Rubin and Allen Greenspan could be the chief pallbearers. Sic transit....
The Citibank subsidiaries of Citigroup are regulated by the FDIC. Whatever Bair meant by what she said, and I wondered myself as I listened to her, it could not be that FDIC does not have jurisdiction over that part of the Citi operations.
Here's some data from the FDIC website. I hope it's legible. Each line (ends ||) has the sub name, city where "located," total deposits in $000, and pct of deposits insured by FDIC. Right before they show me my new pony, they're going to reveal that all the hem-hawing about who can do what with Citi has just been vamping until they could get everything lined up for one of those receivership** rollouts like at little Heritage bank. Imagine doing that for one of the big 4!
Citibank [Banamex USA]\t Century City CA\t $1,020,682 (67) ||
Citibank (South Dakota), N.A.\tSioux Falls SD\t $46,449,951 (98) ||
Citibank, National Association\tLas Vegas NV\t $755,298,000 (43) ||
Citicorp Trust Bank, fsb Wilmington DE $8,224,952 (98) ||
====
**Receivership, not bankruptcy, is what FDIC implements. They are different, so (IANAL) I don't think the bankruptcy law shenanigans have any effect.
I am glad to read Prof. Stiglitz: The Good Bank proposal has the advantage of avoiding the N-word: nationalization. Some believe a more polite term, "conservatorship" as it was called in the case of Fannie Mae, may be more palatable. It should be clear, though, that whatever it is called, the Good Bank proposal entails little more than playing by longstanding rules, a variant of standard practices to deal with firms whose liabilities exceed their assets . This is definitely consistent with what I had been writing for some time and recently here. Let's set up some good banks via the "bridge banks" in conservatorship.
"I'm not sure what else Shelby could mean by 'bury some big ones'"
Sen. Shelby doesn't really know what that means either, but it makes him look tough. And that's more important than doing the right things to stave off Great Depression 2: the Sequel.
For this financial crisis in the US, for those responsible-the politicians, the bankers, the regulators, the mega corporations and the large media talking heads never gave a singe word of regret or apologized to the millions and millions of people who were financially devastated.
He means liquidate.
"When the FDIC "buries a small bank" - they temporarily nationalize the bank, and then reprivatize the bank."
The problem is that they usually re-privatize by selling to a larger bank. In the case of the few biggest banks, that would just create an even larger problem bank that is even harder to take down.
They should take them down by taking them apart, and selling them in small pieces.
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