"Strictly Confidential" AIG Document Warns of Dire Consequences of Failure

"Confidential" document on the Internet? Oh the humanity.

First, but it'll get lost.

SHAM! SHAM! SHAM!

Cram it all down the bondholders throats.

Build new jails and fill them with bankers.

Crony capitalism has been replaced by ransom capitalism.

Oh wait, we already have a term for that: extortion.

This seems like pure extortion the way the document is written. That companies are so large and important as to hold the largest nations hostage is unacceptable. Crony capitalism is benign by comparison to what this document exemplifies.

First, now I need to work .

First but it got lost.

ooohh... scary! Where do I send my money? >:o

Oooo. its top secret!

Is this where the Devito character gets whacked?

ooohhh.... scary! Where do I send $$$ to prevent this awful scenario? >:o

The US Treasury Wink

lets never allow companies to get this big again...too big to fail it too big! Never Again!!

"Get smaller." -Nixo

The shock doctrine is a national religion now.

We've created a culture where predation is the only meaningful way to get ahead.

Yes, Carl Marx had the better idea. Let's get a Government Central Planning area set-up so never ever fails again!! What color is the sky in your world?

"Public confidence in financial
institutions is at a nadir "

doesn't nadir imply that a bottom has been reached? Wink

strict L. A. Confidential. get it?

timmay, another truckload of c-notes to aig, on the double!

If even half of this document is accurate, we're well and truly hosed.

That was a helluva read.

i knew ralph nadir was at the bottom of this

Market tanking again....I love being short, however, this has become far to easy. I am taking some money of the table.

Hah, obviously leaked on purpose

"That was a helluva read."

Sure. But accurate?

I think it was written by someone limbering up for the Bulwer-Lytton Fiction Contest.

typical shock doctrine

Is it possible that the government is pumping money into AIG, so that AIG is able to pay off CDS contracts if Citi goes into receivership?

I find your lack of faith disturbing.

fake leaks and shock doctrine

Did you read the part about their foreign exposure? Jeebus, they are huge in Korea, PI, China, Singapore.

I liked how they mentioned the effect of their failure on their "Weakened Brethern." Does that work the other way also?

Looks like a sucker's puff piece to justify the next tranche and provide cover for the previous one's.

Broke is Broke. Shareholders to 0 Bondholders to equity and unwind the residue...

crispy get your ampersand under control Cool

I have no idea what it does that...

Unnamed sources said...

Just take 1% off the top please. I'll see you tomorrow for the same...

ah, those "unexpected outcomes" where "senior creditors" "share in losses". This is me, utterly failing to weep.

favorite quote "insurance in the oxygen of the free enterprise system"

It is? Give me a f'n break/

I read the comments after I posted. I am freakin naive. These people are smarter at being devious than I will ever be.

"...The report was prepared by Sheriff Bart Consultants, LLC."

I see Lockhart on cnbc explaining yet again that the plan is coming.

they need to stop introducing details of the same $75B mortgage mod program and just get on with it.

Then go on tv and talk about progress instead of continuing to pretend to explain more details of "the plan" that's coming.

print out the current plan and get some people on the phones calling mortgage holders.

with $75B in the project can't they commandeer a few call centers and get the ball rolling.

the way they are going about it makes it seem like the plan is just a fancy pdf from some .gov website.

spend some of my money already.

Perhaps the Treasury Dept is soliciting bids right now from consulting firms to manage the mortgage mods?
That's the thing the general public doesn't know. When there's anything to be done other than the daily maintenance of govt functions, the USG hires outside firms to do it.

• AIG operates in more than 140 countries around the world, whose customers,
regulators, and governments have thus far been refrained from liquidating or seizing
assets based largely on the support given to AIG by the U.S. government.

AIG operates in more than 140 countries around the world, whose "customers,
regulators, and governments have thus far been refrained from liquidating or seizing
assets based largely on the support given to AIG by the U.S. government."

Serios question, not snarky comment - is this the real reason for continued AIG bailout?

Good question, but we're not getting any answers. Just yesterday the government finally identified some of the counterparties AIG paid with last year's bailout. And, sure enough, most of them were large national and international banks.

it's good goldman got this aig pipeline into the treasury.
we couldn't have them "share in losses" now could we?
i thought not

I'll hold my breath until I get more candy!

Scam artist every damn one of them, and it just didn't start yesterday, it takes years to pull off this type of heist.

No candy for you, but I will give you $1 billion.

General Fulda reports from the central Atlantic that the test ship has been towed into position and the OOW test is counting down as observation teams arrive.

dire consequences = tax payer doesn't pay for Cayman's retirement.

I'd like to tell AIG what they can do with their systematic risk...

Heh, new low on the dow and the s&p 500 and no one even bothers to mention it. I guess you get used to everything

Market closed down, we demand the 4 bad bears update. >:o

"it takes years to pull off this type of heist"

I agree and I would add that some up-and-coming prosecutor(s) ought to be looking into all of the rules that AIG and its clients likely violated as this Hindenburg inflated over the years.

"I agree and I would add that some up-and-coming prosecutor(s) ought to be looking into all of the rules"

When is the Republican party going to realize that there is hay to be made as the anti-banker party? Shelby seems to have figured it out. Is Steele a big banking beneficiary? How much of Rush's advertisers come from the financial sector?

“FYI, I have a bazooka in my pocket and i am NOT aftraid to use it...however, all our problems are contained... i repeat.... "

Sure is a lot of snark here today. You all don't want to lose this National Treasure, do you?

Market tanking again....I love being short, however, this has become far to easy. I am taking some money of the table.

For the second time in about 2 years I'm completely out of the market. I don't know how to parse a market that goes down every single day, so I don't try.

Wait for something familiar...

Straight-up extortion and racketeering. The writers of this document deserve years in jail. AIG can easily protect its good business, just as MBIA is protecting its muni insurance from the CDS deals that will BK it, by separating it into subsidiaries. For the most part it's already there. Then BK the master holding company and the one subsidiary responsible for the crap CDS. These scare tactics are designed to extort vast sums from the Federal government, and that is a blatantly criminal offense.

It's not just AIG's CDS writing or the bank capital insuring division facing seizure

Demand for aircraft leasing? Way down
Guaranteed annuities? Totally underwater
Exposure to political instability by insuring government and critical infrastructure? Way up
Demand for profitable health and auto insurance? Dropping by the day
Demand for insuring cargo? Fell off the face of the earth
 AIG’s business model – a sprawl of $1 trillion of insurance and financial services
businesses, whose AAA credit was used to backstop a $2 trillion dollar financial
products trading business – has many inherent risks that are correlated with one
another. As the global economy has experienced multi-sector failures, AIG’s vast
business has been weakened by these multi-sector failures.

The problem is cutting from both sides
a) Their long investment position is getting creamed
b) The demand for their profitable services is vanishing

What stood out in the slides for me was the frequent mention of policy holders (life insurance, annuities, retirement plans, etc) causing a 'bank run'... they are hanging on by the skin of their teeth,
 Over the past decade, the voluntary termination rate on individual policies
declined remarkably (to six percent by 2007) as consumers could obtain liquidity
from numerous other sources.
 A significant rise in surrender rates – inspired by consumers’ needs for cash or
because of rumored or real failure of insurance companies – could be disastrous.
Because of widespread loss of liquidity, the industry would struggle to raise
adequate cash to meet surrender requests. A “run on the bank” in the life and
retirement business would have sweeping impacts across the economy in the
U.S. In countries around the world with higher savings rates than the U.S., the
failure of insurance companies like AIG would be a catastrophe.

The fear mongering about corporate insurance is a bit overdone. If there were no insurers who wouldn't gouge current policies to cover past losses, they would internalize the risk. 90%+ of Fortune _____ companies wouldn't stop operating because they couldn't get Director & Officer insurance

All the life insurers have seen their share prices plummet by 80-90%. It doesn't seem to have been widely noticed yet that the largest holders of bonds and equities (the insurers and pension funds) haven't fully disclosed the massive extent of their losses,they don't have to report on a MTM basis after all. But equity holders are running and bond holders are near suicidal because they do see what's happened.
If this document gets the wider attention it deserves people (normal people with 401ks and no jobs) are going to reallize just how F**d we are and how much more concerted global govt intervention is required. Nationalizing Citi arguments are going to sound like facile high school debating society contests, especially those moderated by that chucklehead Barney. This party hasn't even started yet. Bear, Lehman are quaint bursts of drama in the crisis we're facing. I think Obama (I hope), Geithner,and Mr B at the Fed see it despite their portrayal as hapless virgins in the media. (Although Geithner does seem out of his league so far).Fasten your seat belts. Forget about insolvent banks,we're now in a world where insurance doesn't exist. AIG FP has looted the largest insurer in the world via AIGs CDS counterparties (Goldman, et al) who were clever enough to know (and hedge their exposure to AIG by shorting them) they were looting AIG. Who is the greater fool here. GS no , AIG - maybe, if their extortion fails, or the Govt(s) (likely) who failed to protect savers.
Likely it's us who'll pay, the normal chumps (or our kids) who thought we could save a bit and make a decent return, expecting the high flyers(i.e.Real estate speculators and their lenders) to flame out,eat each others lunch but leave some decent crumbs on the table for us long term to retire on.

Dean Wormer says; "Double Secret Extortion!"

"Dean Wormer says; "Double Secret Extortion!""

If AIG was a Delta...

have the watertight compartments of the system been breached yet? there is this odd tilt as i walk across the deck

"Permitting AIG to fail would be even more serious today than in September, especially in view to the support of the US government."

......it sure is a good-damn-thing they don't have to come to me for any more money. I'd test that "today worse than yesterday" horseshit!

they are coming to you for money.

I really don't know, but it seems that we should have let the counterparties bear a bulk of these losses vs the taxpayers. Once the counterparties are smoked out, then start making selective bailouts, where necessary. There's way too much capacity in banking and insurance, as it is.

I'll say it again people. If you wanna look good and not be bummy, girl you better gimme that money!
Dailymotion - Ol' Dirty Bastard - Got Your Money - une vidéo Musique

They don't call me Notorious for nothing.

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favorite quote "insurance in the oxygen of the free enterprise system"

This is true. Try lighting a match in the presence of pure oxygen. That's a little bit like AIG.

Nice link CR. Thanks.

The leaked document seemed curiously light on facts to me. Lots of comparatives, but not that many numbers. I think they're applying for a liar's loan.

"Public confidence in financial
institutions is at a nadir "

OMG! It's Peak Nadir!

Why the bullet pointed paragraphs? Why the bad English? I think the North Koreans might be behind this!

Big Shitpile.

$1.6 TRILLION derivatives exposure.
Oh dear.
I wonder if they'd like it cash up front or in installments?
But the reinsured it all, so net exposure is zero, right?
With sound counterparties, right?
Right?

where did Bloomberg get this doc? And where did CR get it? Any attempt to verify? What was it a draft presentation FOR?

I smell a new market for anti-AIG insurance. I want a policy that states that every time these companies rush to the federal govt. for money, it doesn't have to come out of my pocket.

It would probably be too expensive, tho.

Are you sure this is genuine? Have AIG said anything about it?

Guest,

ABC News got it. See their website. Who leaked it, how, and why are all good questions.

EHP,

Thanks for analyzing some of the claims in the document.

It really needs to be assessed step by step. Ideally, some data will be demanded and released so that the claims can be evaluated, and I hope that will now be the case. Then and only then can there be an informed debate about appropriate actions, whether it is to bring RICO charges or deal with a real problem gradually or more rapidly by nationalization/restructuring.

With just a little editing, DOJ could turn this document into an indictment against AIG for financial terrorism. It's telling the bank cops, "Here is where we have placed all the derivative tripwires at AIG. If you don't send us another $150 billion, we'll take down the entire financial system with us! Bwaaahhahahaah!"

I smell a Mike Meyer's sequel. What should he call it?

Great document. It makes it easy to compare the cost of supporting AIG... to just supporting their counterparties.

For example... $10 billion? Is that all the European banks need? The real fear seems to be the run on insurance contracts. Those could be frozen or the immediate payoffs reduced.

Seems like a big mistake continuing to do buiness as normal.

This is bullshit! It's talking about life insurance as if that's the problem. The real problem is all the credit default swaps. AIG wrote them like autographs and bankrupted the firm. They assumed there was no inherent risk!

AIG has a gun to its' head and threatens to pull the trigger if the goobermint doesn't pay up. BoA, Citigroup, JPMorgan, etc are blackmailing us via mass financial terriosm. They've collectively emptied the pensions, 401k's and IRA's. We must drain the parasitical pond scum from the system and stop the bezzle. The pond's underlying system (labor/jobs) is dying from lack of sunlight and oxygen due to the top layer of suffocating pond scum. I say, go ahead, pull the trigger. Cool

I would rather them just fix the whole compnay in one shot rather than this piece meal approach. True, the number would be big and shocking, but I think we are all used to that by now.

Pure extortion. Is AIG run by the mafia?

I kept seeing the veiled threat (well, I guess all their threats were veiled) that consumers will start cashing in their life insurance policies?

As a term life holder, I don't think I get anything by cashing in my policy? Are they talking whole life here? Is that all they sell?

Also, who cares if people start cashing in their 401Ks with them? Isn't the first $500K covered by SIPC?

curious...

Come on you guys, it is easy to see why it was "leaked". Too much bitching by the sheeple. TPTB figure this will shut them up.

You see the problem is that all the newspapers have gone under, so they couldn't get enough Mervyns's and Circuit City adds together to cut all the letters they needed for this ransom note (note to AIG - BREVITY!), so they just said f' it and printed it on their own letterhead. "Who's gonna stop us anyway?"

And the Kidnappers says pay me my ransom or the kid gets it, again.

P.S.

Without providing proof they took anyone. >:o

They mention how many have pension plans with them. Then they mention that many current retirees may receive their main income from them. But they don't mention how many current retirees there are. This sort of nonsense runs right through the document. Did they leave in this sort of spin to better deceive the public? Make it look like it really is for "your eyes only"? My guess is no. I'm not that kind of cynical. I'm the kind of cynical that thinks these morons are actually stupid enough to put into print claims that an AIG failure could dwarf Lehmans in collateral damage to the world economy. They should have done like Tony Soprano and kept it all verbal.

There's a special cell in Supermax for Phil Gramm.

waitaminnit --- AIG was selling insurance on capitalism?!!

Why the HELL didn't my 401k plan allow me to insure against a fall in value?

Everybody ELSE apparently got insurance against losing money.

All I want is my January 2008 net worth back.
Is that so much to ask?

Let the Zombie banks die and help these people - tinyrul.com

This is not to be disrespectful of the entire crisis but this kind of sums it up - Capitalism Gone Wild: The TARP Song by Bill Zucker

Fourth rescue WOW!. What happened to "free money" that Cassano thought his business was. In any case buying protection from AIG was a great fiction all around. If you think about it from a counterparty risk management perspective or a contingent CDS perspective that protection was actually worth zero (no I'm not exaggerating) due to massive wrong-wayness of the risk. Marry that with the fact that AIG didnt realize what risk they were underwriting (MTM rather than default) and you have a recipe for disaster. I flesh this out here:
The AIG Fiasco or How Not To Manage your CDO Exposure « A Credit Trader

  1. [url=http://blogs.ign.com/partner55346429/2008/05/06/88882/][b]free annual credit report[/b][/url]
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